ELECTION DAY 2008:........... Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America

RCP Average08/29 - 09/04--46.644.0Obama +2.6
Gallup Tracking09/02 - 09/042779 RV4844Obama +4
Hotline/FD Tracking09/02 - 09/04916 RV4640Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking09/02 - 09/043000 LV4846Obama +2
CBS News09/01 - 09/03734 RV4242Tie
CNN08/29 - 08/31927 RV4948Obama +1
[th=""] Poll [/th] [th=""] Date [/th] [th=""] Sample [/th] [th=""] Obama (D) [/th] [th=""] McCain (R) [/th] [th=""] Spread [/th]

This includes today's Hotline/FD Tracking that shows Obama going from up 9% to up 6% in their latest poll.
 
Saturday, September 06
RacePollResultsSpread
NationalGallup TrackingObama 47, McCain 45Obama +2
NationalRasmussen TrackingObama 49, McCain 46Obama +3


[h3]Today's Polls, 9/6[/h3]
Although the topline results don't make it obvious, it appears that John McCain had a fairly strong night of polling in the daily tracking polls, which are the only numbers we have to look at today.

The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:

Code: 
Wednesday: Obama +7.8Thursday: Obama +2.4Friday: McCain +4.2
So Obama's numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held uprelatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin's speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward fromyesterday's figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likelyleading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow's Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead.

As for Rasmussen , it actually has Barack Obama gaining a point, and moving into a 3-point lead. However, it still looks like McCain may have had a relatively good night on Friday. My tracking poll algorithm will have more difficulty with the Rasmussen tracker than the Gallup tracker because Rasmussen uses a more complicated weighting procedure (i.e. weighting by party ID), meaning that we're a step further away from seeing "raw" numbers. But with grain of salt, here is what I show:
Code: 
Wednesday: Obama +4.9Thursday: Obama +3.8Friday: Obama +0.3
Once again, I would caution against overinterpreting any of this. Conventions should producebounces -- they are the equivalent of tens of millions of dollars in free advertising time. What we don't know is how to contextualize these bounces. Anaverage convention bounce is about 6 points, but we don't know how the Democratic and Republican conventions interact with one another, particularly as itaffects the timing of the respective bounces. Moreover, Fridays (and Saturdays) are tough nights to poll. My hunch, as I've stated before, is that whatevernumbers McCain winds up with over the weekend, Barack Obama will probably be polling a couple of points ahead of those numbers by the end of the upcomingweek.

 
capt.cps.nmx16.060908180215.photo04.photo.default-512x367.jpg


ZOGBY: MCCAIN-PALIN UP 4%...


Released: September 06, 2008
Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.


Data from this poll is available here

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The Ticket Horserace
9-5/6
8-29/30

McCain-Palin
49.7%
47.1%

Obama-Biden
45.9%
44.6%

Others/Not sure
4.4%
8.3%
In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

One-on-One Horserace
9-5/6

McCain
48.8%

Obama
45.7%

Others/Not sure
5.5%
In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

 
Zogby doesn't know how to poll.... He had Kerry beating Bush by 3 points day of election in 2004...
 
Originally Posted by DaGreatJ

Zogby doesn't know how to poll.... He had Kerry beating Bush by 3 points day of election in 2004...
Click to expand...
Actually you're wrong. Zogby is a well respected pollster.
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18[sup]th[/sup] was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.
But never-the-less Zogby isn't counted in the % AVG I used for page 1 & the title.
And more importantly the #s within the poll #s are more important....
Showing McCain taking a big lead among Catholic voters... McCain's favorability rating increasing 7%... and Palin having abetter favorability rating then Biden
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by DaGreatJ

Zogby doesn't know how to poll.... He had Kerry beating Bush by 3 points day of election in 2004...
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly, Kerry was beating Bush in a lot of polls.


We'll know tomorrow where McCain stands.
 
Originally Posted by DaGreatJ

Zogby doesn't know how to poll.... He had Kerry beating Bush by 3 points day of election in 2004...
Click to expand...
Diebold machines in Ohio 9and across the country). CEO of Diebold (based in Ohio) openly stating before the election that they'd do whatevernecessary to get Bush re-elected.
Zogby may not have been wrong.
 
Originally Posted by Fede DPT

Originally Posted by DaGreatJ

Zogby doesn't know how to poll.... He had Kerry beating Bush by 3 points day of election in 2004...
Click to expand...
We'll know tomorrow where McCain stands.
Click to expand...
Tomorrow McCain should be up by about 2-3% in the Rasmusen (up from TIED today) & McCain up by 4-6% in the Gallup (up from +3%today)
Those are my predictions based on doing some calculations.

(these daily trackers are 3 day averages.... and the 3rd day out in these 2 polls has the biggest Obama lead, so that # will be gone tomorrowfrom the 3 day average =
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)
 
I'm interested to see the polls in the swing states.
 
i'll vote so if mccain wins, i can't complain. i did my part.

if americans want mccain to be president, who am I to say no? just stop complaining and whining when the enxt election rolls around.
 
Meh. Polls, schmolls.

Still a lot of time left before the election, so I wouldn't worry too much about what the polls are saying. As long as it stays close.....
 
Originally Posted by superblyTRIFE

Meh. Polls, schmolls.

Still a lot of time left before the election, so I wouldn't worry too much about what the polls are saying. As long as it stays close.....
Click to expand...
It'll stay close all the way up to the election more then likely.... barring any scandals coming to light, anything crazyhappening internationally, or 1 of the 2 just blowing the other out of the water in the debates (not likely).
But the fact that McCain is even ahead in ANY poll is an achievement. Like I've said, Obama should be killing in a year when the economy isn't doing sohot, most people don't like the Iraq war, and George W. Bush has an approval rating around 30%.
This should be a pretty good/close election.
 
 
Originally Posted by K8be wan Kenobi

Polls don't mean shh.. It's electoral vote count that decides the election. According to the electoral vote count, it will NOT be a close election. It will most likely be a blowout win for Obama:



I was playing around with this electoral vote tracker:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/n...lectoral-vote-tracker.htm

I gave McCain: Florida, the ENTIRE South, almost all the Midwest going up through Montana, Alaska, Utah, and of course Arizona. AND I gave him Ohio on top of that, a crucial swing state that Obama is actually leading in right now.


I gave Obama: Cali, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico (he already has commanding 10-15 point leads over McCain in those states, and those states are known to be highly democratic. Those are locks for Obama, McCain doesn't even bother campaigning in those states anymore.)

Michigan, Wisconsin, (he leads in those states by 5-10 points. and Michigan has voted Democratic in the past 5 elections. trust, they aren't voting for a Republican).

and all of New England, from MD up (In the past 4 elections, every NE State has voted Democrat each time except for New Hampshire in 2000. no headway for McCain there).

And Nevada (Obama is currently leading there, and NVers like him because NV is a key state included in his energy proposal).

Now look what happens:

ev6e5k.jpg



Even with me OD reaching to give McCain all those states, it still only ends up in a tie at 269-269. In the event of a tie, the vote goes to the House, meaning Obama wins (because the House is majority Democratic
laugh.gif
) . And this is like the straight up bare minimum states Obama will win, I gave McCain every state I logically could.

And it's HIGHLY unlikely that McCain sweeps the Midwest like Republicans usually do, because he isn't running the same campaign as past Democrats. Obama is big on biofuels and corn ethanol, and that's very popular in the Midwest because they are the main producers of corn and grains. He has a strong probability of winning Colorado, North Dakota, Indiana, and Ohio, which would give him a 312-226 landslide. But I didn't even factor that in, I'm being VERY generous to McCain.
Click to expand...
I really really hope you're right.
 
Originally Posted by K8be wan Kenobi

Polls don't mean shh.. It's electoral vote count that decides the election. According to the electoral vote count, it will NOT be a close election. It will most likely be a blowout win for Obama:



I was playing around with this electoral vote tracker:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/n...lectoral-vote-tracker.htm

I gave McCain: Florida, the ENTIRE South, almost all the Midwest going up through Montana, Alaska, Utah, and of course Arizona. AND I gave him Ohio on top of that, a crucial swing state that Obama is actually leading in right now.


I gave Obama: Cali, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico (he already has commanding 10-15 point leads over McCain in those states, and those states are known to be highly democratic. Those are locks for Obama, McCain doesn't even bother campaigning in those states anymore.)

Michigan, Wisconsin, (he leads in those states by 5-10 points. and Michigan has voted Democratic in the past 5 elections. trust, they aren't voting for a Republican).

and all of New England, from MD up (In the past 4 elections, every NE State has voted Democrat each time except for New Hampshire in 2000. no headway for McCain there).

And Nevada (Obama is currently leading there, and NVers like him because NV is a key state included in his energy proposal).

Now look what happens:

ev6e5k.jpg



Even with me OD reaching to give McCain all those states, it still only ends up in a tie at 269-269. In the event of a tie, the vote goes to the House, meaning Obama wins (because the House is majority Democratic
laugh.gif
) . And this is like the straight up bare minimum states Obama will win, I gave McCain every state I logically could.

And it's HIGHLY unlikely that McCain sweeps the Midwest like Republicans usually do, because he isn't running the same campaign as past Democrats. Obama is big on biofuels and corn ethanol, and that's very popular in the Midwest because they are the main producers of corn and grains. He has a strong probability of winning Colorado, North Dakota, Indiana, and Ohio, which would give him a 312-226 landslide. But I didn't even factor that in, I'm being VERY generous to McCain.
Click to expand...
Obama isn't blowing out McCain, keep dreaming. It's going to be a good race.
I still think Obama is the favorite to win in the end, but time will tell.
312-226? Yeah right.
First off he's not winning Indiana or North Dakota in his wildest dreams. Neither even went democrat for BILL CLINTON when he killed Bush & then Dole.And neither has gone democratic since at least 1964 (election database I'm looking at only goes back to 1968, it's just a quick view...)

Also there haven't been any new state polls for quite sometime in many states due to the conventions...
Wait about 2 weeks until there are new polls from all the key swing states that are taken after the conventions.
 
[h3]Today's Polls, 9/7[/h3]
Here's what I think it's safe to conclude: the GOP had a successful convention. John McCain now holds a 3-point lead over Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll, his largest lead since May. And Rasmussen shows the race tied at 48-48, after having shown Barack Obama with a 5-6 point lead at the peak of his convention bounce.

We will have to see how the other polls weigh in (sorry if I can't take anything from Zogby Interactive too seriously, although it is officially included in our model.) More critically, we will have to see what the new state-level electoral landscape looks like. Since John McCain's daily results seem to be improving over the course of the tracking window, by the way, we should probably expect this bounce to get bigger before it gets smaller.

Still, we just don't know in what direction the polls are going to move from here forward. There just isn't any precedent for so many political molecules being packed into such a tight space, with the conventions and VP selections having come right on top of one another. If one assumes that the Republicans are getting a typical 6 or 7-point convention bounce, that suggests that the race still probably leans by a a couple of points to Barack Obama once the polls return to equilibrium, the current numbers representing some sort of short-lived, dead cat bounce along the lines of what happened to Walter Mondale in 1984. If, on the other hand, one assumes that both parties have had their say and that these polls already represent the new equilibrium, things are looking up for McCain-Palin. The truth, of course, is most likely somewhere in between. Our tracking graph still regards Barack Obama as roughly a 3-point favorite, but it is designed to respond cautiously to new information. If McCain sustains these numbers over the course of the next week or so, it will shift toward him relatively rapidly.
 
Obama is leading in Electorial votes, but he can probably get Ohio or Florida the big point states, he is virtually tied in those two states.....
Texas is out of the Question, as well as majority of the south.....but he can steal one of the big point states, he is in good shape
 
i dont really trust these polls 8 point jump in a matter of weeks. doesnt seem pausible for that many people to change there mind in a matter of days. it isdefiantly gonna be close thats for sure come the 4th. i already mailed my voter regristration and i hope everyone else does to. ima be voting 5 days after my18th birthday.
pimp.gif
you better believe im dragging my mother and brotherslazy butts to the polls that day.
 
Originally Posted by Infyrno23

Obama is leading in Electorial votes, but he can probably get Ohio or Florida the big point states, he is virtually tied in those two states.....
Texas is out of the Question, as well as majority of the south.....but he can steal one of the big point states, he is in good shape
Click to expand...
He's not going to win Florida & I doubt he's going to win Ohio (should be close tho). That being said he can still winwithout winning those.

And everyone dismissing the national polls... the national polls DO mean something....
If a candidate is up like 5% in the national poll come the election, it's not like they'd lose the electoral college....
If either candidate happens to be up by that much, that means they're going to be picking up those close/swing states.
It'll probably be like a 2-3% point race either way come election day though. I don't see either candidate running away this.
 
And the good news continues for the GOP
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New USA Today Poll releasing tomorrow....

[color= rgb(255, 0, 0)]Registered Voters
McCain 50%
Obama 46%[/color]

[color= rgb(255, 0, 0)]Likely Voters
McCain 54%
Obama 44%[/color]

More importantly... look at the polls inside the polls....

Among the findings:

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.



WASHINGTON - The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage sinceJanuary and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and theGOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made abig difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined hewould be in at this point."

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention pollssignal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is reallysurprising how quickly convention memories fade."

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. Thesurvey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of 3 points for both samples.
Click to expand...
 
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