- 39,840
- 43,960
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2006
Every time I get a call in Socal I get it after 5pm usually after the sheikhs email's which should be coming soon...
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
I was gonna type this up, but decided it wasn't worth it. Just to flesh it out a little more, the formula is 1-((chances of FAILURE in any given raffle)^number of raffles)=chance of success. for each raffle you enter, the odds you fail every time gets reduced, which means your chances of success also go up.
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
10 coin flips:
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance
basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
I remember one of my local Foot Lockers saying they weren't getting the Bred 11s. I was like View media item 1535568Local footlocker said they didnt get any pairs. either theyre lieing cause theyre shady or theyre a joke of a store. pretty sure its a little of both though.
So just to be clear, before I completely write off this community...
Several, if not may of you believe that if I enter ten raffles, and you enter one, then we both have the same chance of winning a raffle? Correct?
Thank you. Finally someone with some intelligence.
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
10 coin flips:
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance
basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
Local footlocker said they didnt get any pairs. either theyre lieing cause theyre shady or theyre a joke of a store. pretty sure its a little of both though.
yes, thank you again.
I was gonna type this up, but decided it wasn't worth it. Just to flesh it out a little more, the formula is 1-((chances of FAILURE in any given raffle)^number of raffles)=chance of success. for each raffle you enter, the odds you fail every time gets reduced, which means your chances of success also go up.
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
10 coin flips:
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance
basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
View media item 1532809I saw the OG shirt posted pages back and I thought it would be a dope idea to redo it on close to OG form for the release
A guaranteed pair, a phone call about another pair, and two calls about my daughters pair....TODAY WAS A GOOD DAY!!!
Just got the shiekh email from Galleria Houston....relieved to say the least....
stores text winners?Still no call or text.. I'm starting to feel some type of way
Great work in posting the video. I think everyone in this thread should watch it. Dude was talking about not getting Jays when he was young as they could not afford them and saying as long as your parents love you thats all that matters. Also don't bully kids just because they can't afford Jays.Dude was dropping knowledge.
+L for thickheadednessSo just to be clear, before I completely write off this community...
Several, if not may of you believe that if I enter ten raffles, and you enter one, then we both have the same chance of winning a raffle? Correct?
Just got the shiekh email from Galleria Houston....relieved to say the least....
Same here
All that should be common sense.
Great work in posting the video. I think everyone in this thread should watch it. Dude was talking about not getting Jays when he was young as they could not afford them and saying as long as your parents love you thats all that matters. Also don't bully kids just because they can't afford Jays.
There is much more important things in life then Jays
One of the best videos I have seen posted on NT