Tonight is WWE's Extreme Rules PPV. The PPV following WrestleMania has traditionally done poorly unless it had some type of major marquee match, and tonight's show definitely doesn't have that. Add to the fact that it is coming the day after one of the largest UFC PPVs in history, this show is likely to be in the bottom five buy rates in modern WWE history. If they hit 85,000 buys domestic, they'll be very lucky. The build for this show has not been great, due largely to the fact that most of the recent TV was focused on the draft rather than tonight's PPV. However, unlike WrestleMania where we didn't see any title changes, we are guaranteed to see at least one new champion tonight with the vacated World Championship, and odds are good we may see more than that.
Michelle McCool vs Layla - Loser Leaves WWE Match
This was originally scheduled to be Loser Leaves Smackdown, but McCool will be retiring as an on air personality for the time being, so it's pretty much a lock that Layla wins here. McCool travels with The Undertaker and only worked 17 house shows in 2010, so it's not a big loss for the women's division. Plus, personally I can't stand her, in the ring or on the mic, so I'm happy she'll be gone. Not that anyone will actually care about McCool leaving since the Divas Division means nothing, but it's another case of where they have faked the firing stipulation so many times that no one will actually believe it when the stipulation is real.
Prediction: Layla
Michael Cole & Jack Swagger vs Jerry Lawler & Jim Ross - Country Whipping Match
I really have no idea what a Country Whipping Match is, but the outcome of this match needs to be very simple. Swagger should somehow be incapacitated and then Lawler and JR should beat the hell out of Cole beating him clean in the middle of the ring. I don't think WWE is dumb enough to repeat the mistake of WrestleMania where they had Lawler sell and sell and sell for Cole. No one expects a classic match here, and no one wants it to go long. Knock Swagger out, beat the hell out of Cole, and have Lawler and JR celebrate in the middle of the ring victoriously. The reports are that Swagger and Lawler will have a program next, so Cole will likely try to get revenge with Swagger as his hit man.
Prediction: Jerry Lawler and Jim Ross
Rey Mysterio vs Cody Rhodes - Falls Count Anywhere
This is an interesting one. Rhodes got the clean win at WrestleMania and looked to be on the verge of a big push, but the very next night on Raw he was pinned clean by Orton for no apparent reason. These two have gone back and forth on Smackdown, but things ended this past Friday with Rhodes (with th help of Mark Henry) laying out Rey and putting a paper bag over his head. If this was any other time in WWE, I would expect them to give Mysterio the win, especially with it being his last official Smackdown match. However, Smackdown is now desperately in need of top heels, and Rhodes may have to start main eventing on the Smackdown side, so having him lose here just doesn't make sense. Mysterio winning does nothing for him in the long term, but a win could be very beneficial for Rhodes. Plus, Mysterio will be near the top on Raw, but he's never going to be ahead of Cena. If I were booking, Rhodes would win, but in WWE, you never know.
Prediction: Cody Rhodes
Randy Orton vs CM Punk - Last Man Standing Match
Last man standing matches are usually one of WWE's best gimmick matches because they allow for a ton of big spots without having to actually finish the match. This match should be no different, and since they'll be working a lot of the match outside the ring, it will be better than the normal Orton match where he never leaves first gear. From the booking of this feud, it would seem that Punk is due for a victory since he was beat clean at WrestleMania and really hasn't done much else since. However, with Orton moving to Smackdown as the clear top babyface, I would be shocked if he didn't get the win here. Plus, with all of the speculation around Punk's contract situation, they are not going to give a guy that is possibly on his way out a clean victory over the #2 babyface in the company. I really hope Punk stays with WWE because he is the last great heel in the company, but even if he does leave, I have to expect he'll be back again just like with Jericho.
Prediction: Randy Orton
Christian vs Alberto Del Rio - Ladder Match for the Vacant World Heavyweight Championship
This match was originally booked as a WrestleMania rematch between Edge and Del Rio, but of course we are all aware of Edge's sudden retirement. Christian won a battle royal to earn the spot against Del Rio to wrestle for the vacated title. Christian is a ladder match expert, but Del Rio has never been in a ladder match, so it will be interesting to see how he handles it and how they work together. Logic says Christian will win because Del Rio was drafted to Raw this past Monday, and they wouldn't want both major titles on the same show. Of course, they can always run an angle over the next few weeks to get one of the titles onto Smackdown if they go that route. It's a big test for Christian as it's his first singles match WWE main event (at least that I can remember), so he really needs to step up here to show Vince that he deserves the spot. I'm going with Christian to climb the ladder and win the title making it the biggest achievement of his career.
Prediction: Christian - New World Heavyweight Champion
John Morrison vs John Cena vs The Miz (c) - Triple Threat Steel Cage Match for the WWE Championship
They really have not made any attempt to build this match. Morrison and Truth are involved in their own program (one would expect Truth to get involved tonight). The focus of Cena was him being drafted to Smackdown and then back to Raw. The Miz did pin Cena this past Monday in a 6-man tag match, but that was only after Henry turned on Cena. And of course Cena went Superman Mode after the match and not only beat up Miz, but laid out CM Punk and Del Rio as well by himself. Cena becomes more and more unbearable to me every single week. We know that the plan is for Cena vs Del Rio at Summerslam, but I don't think Cena wins the title just yet. Being a three way cage match, I think somehow Miz either pins Morrison or escapes the cage to get the win with Cena not having to be defeated cleanly. The triple threat cage match on TNA's Lockdown show with Sting, RVD, and Anderson was awful, but I expect WWE to be able to put together a better match here, especially by taking advantage of Morrison's athleticism.
Prediction: The Miz - Retains WWE Championship
There are also rumors of Wade Barrett defending his Intercontinental Title against Kofi Kingston. With Sheamus going to Smackdown, both the US and Intercontinental Titles are on the same show, and with Kofi moving to Raw, they may want him to take the title there.
On paper, I think this should be a pretty good show. All four of the top matches should be very good.