Don't sell farm for Samardzija.
Five teams with new No. 1 prospects.
Complete AL draft breakdown.
Complete NL draft breakdown.
Lackey's unique contract situation.
MLB's illogical discipline system.
Another year, another Chicago Cubs starting pitcher on the trade market. As was the case with Ryan Dempster in 2012 and Matt Garza and Scott Feldman in 2013, the Cubs again have a desirable starter available to trade in Jeff Samardzija, who could very well be moved by the July 31 deadline.
Though the argument exists that the Cubs might be best served by signing Samardzija to an extension and having him around as their enviable collection of young hitting prospects arrives, it seems more likely they are looking to trade him to add more youth.
Samardzija is in the midst of the best season of his career, and he and David Price are the two best pitchers who are seemingly available this summer. That being the case, some team is going to pay dearly to obtain him -- contenders in Oakland, Toronto, San Francisco, Atlanta, Baltimore and Anaheim -- among others -- could all use a rotation boost, and since Samardzija is controlled through 2015, the price will be even higher. Think about the bounty Chicago extracted from the Texas Rangers last season for two months of Garza -- the one that Rangers GM Jon Daniels admitted already regretting earlier this year -- and go up from there.
Then again, Samardzija isn't the only pitcher likely to be available this summer, and the biggest purchase isn't always the best one. In fact, there are a few other seemingly available National League pitchers who can put up similar production to Samardzija at a fraction of the cost.
Options aplenty
Look at Samardzija alongside three other potentially available NL pitchers and their 2014 performances. Like Samardzija, they play for losing teams who will likely be sellers. All four are righties; all four are between 29 and 31 years of age. Two are free agents following the season, two have one year of arbitration remaining.
Solid alternatives
Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy compare favorably to Jeff Samardzija.
PLAYER
IP K% BB% K%-BB% HR/FB% FIP xFIP WAR
Samardzija
85.0 21.7 6.9 14.7 7.7 3.03 3.27 1.8
Hammel
78.1 23.3 5.3 18.0 6.0 2.88 3.44 1.9
Kennedy
86.2 25.9 5.7 20.2 9.4 2.94 3.02 1.6
McCarthy
79.0 21.4 4.2 17.2 21.4 3.80 2.75 0.8
With one exception that we'll get to at the end, what you have there are four pitchers with very, very similar performances in terms of strikeouts, walks and expected outcomes, even if you don't necessarily think of Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy as being the same caliber of pitcher as Samardzija. Teams aren't -- shouldn't be, anyway -- buying names, ERA or win/loss record. They simply want to get the pitcher who does the most with what he can control, and if you strip out the things that absolutely don't matter, Hammel and Kennedy are pitching exactly as well -- in some areas, better -- than Samardzija is.
Now, it's fair to say that players can't simply be judged on the first few months of the season as though no information about them existed before Opening Day, and were we to have run this dating back to the start of 2013, it's clear that Samardzija is the best of the group. But the point isn't to say that any of the others are definitively better. It's to say they will undeniably be cheaper -- potentially considerably so -- and are likely to offer enough similar value to Samardzija at a fraction of the cost.
Take your pick
For starters, it's not like the others have never experienced success. Kennedy, for example, finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2011 and gave the Arizona Diamondbacks solid performances in both 2010 and 2012 as well. But after he struggled to begin 2013, he was dealt to the San Diego Padres for what seemed a surprisingly underwhelming return -- Joe Thatcher, though effective, was still a 31-year-old left-handed relief specialist.
[+] EnlargeIan Kennedy
Denis Poroy/Getty Images
Kennedy is fanning more than a man per inning for the first time in his career.
Once in San Diego, Kennedy's mechanics were changed by Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley. The result? Kennedy's fastball, which had averaged barely 90 mph by the end of 2012, is now at nearly 93, the hardest he's ever thrown. Unsurprisingly, Kennedy's strikeout rate has shot back up, to the point that his 25.9 percent whiff rate is the 12th best in baseball. Like Samardzija, he's arbitration-eligible next year; despite similar 2014 performance and a higher peak in his past, it seems unlikely the Padres would ask for as much for Kennedy as the Cubs would for Samardzija.
Hammel, on the other hand, will be a free agent this winter, giving the Cubs another good trade chip. Hammel put up a few solid, if rarely noticed, years for the Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles before collapsing due to a 2012 knee injury and 2013 arm trouble. Healthy again this season, Hammel has all but abandoned his curve and changeup in favor of his slider, and with good reason -- over 40 percent of swings against it have ended in a miss. A .234 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) indicates some amount of regression is coming, but as long as Hammel is walking fewer than two batters per nine innings, he can limit the damage.
As for McCarthy, that's admittedly a tougher sell: Even when you know better than to look at such things, it's going to be hard for people to get past 1-8, 5.13 ERA. It should be remembered that the Diamondbacks are among the worst teams in baseball -- it took Samardzija nearly two months to get a win himself -- which doesn't help, but neither does McCarthy's unusually high home run rate.
Of course, most of that was concentrated early in the season (he allowed seven homers in his first five games, and only five in his past eight) and his ground ball rate of 55.5 percent is by far the best of his career.
Combined with increased velocity, as he's shockingly touching 95 mph with regularity now, he's striking batters out more than ever. More strikeouts plus fewer walks plus more ground balls generally leads to good things, and McCarthy is a great candidate to improve.
Remember, a pitcher traded at the deadline will make approximately 12 starts for his new team. Over that span, Samardzija might -- might -- be worth one extra win over the others. Yes, you get Samardzija for more than just this year, which has value, but if your primary goal is adding a pitcher for the 2014 playoff chase, there are other reasonable alternatives out there who will cost a lot less.
Though the argument exists that the Cubs might be best served by signing Samardzija to an extension and having him around as their enviable collection of young hitting prospects arrives, it seems more likely they are looking to trade him to add more youth.
Samardzija is in the midst of the best season of his career, and he and David Price are the two best pitchers who are seemingly available this summer. That being the case, some team is going to pay dearly to obtain him -- contenders in Oakland, Toronto, San Francisco, Atlanta, Baltimore and Anaheim -- among others -- could all use a rotation boost, and since Samardzija is controlled through 2015, the price will be even higher. Think about the bounty Chicago extracted from the Texas Rangers last season for two months of Garza -- the one that Rangers GM Jon Daniels admitted already regretting earlier this year -- and go up from there.
Then again, Samardzija isn't the only pitcher likely to be available this summer, and the biggest purchase isn't always the best one. In fact, there are a few other seemingly available National League pitchers who can put up similar production to Samardzija at a fraction of the cost.
Options aplenty
Look at Samardzija alongside three other potentially available NL pitchers and their 2014 performances. Like Samardzija, they play for losing teams who will likely be sellers. All four are righties; all four are between 29 and 31 years of age. Two are free agents following the season, two have one year of arbitration remaining.
Solid alternatives
Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy compare favorably to Jeff Samardzija.
PLAYER
IP K% BB% K%-BB% HR/FB% FIP xFIP WAR
Samardzija
85.0 21.7 6.9 14.7 7.7 3.03 3.27 1.8
Hammel
78.1 23.3 5.3 18.0 6.0 2.88 3.44 1.9
Kennedy
86.2 25.9 5.7 20.2 9.4 2.94 3.02 1.6
McCarthy
79.0 21.4 4.2 17.2 21.4 3.80 2.75 0.8
With one exception that we'll get to at the end, what you have there are four pitchers with very, very similar performances in terms of strikeouts, walks and expected outcomes, even if you don't necessarily think of Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy as being the same caliber of pitcher as Samardzija. Teams aren't -- shouldn't be, anyway -- buying names, ERA or win/loss record. They simply want to get the pitcher who does the most with what he can control, and if you strip out the things that absolutely don't matter, Hammel and Kennedy are pitching exactly as well -- in some areas, better -- than Samardzija is.
Now, it's fair to say that players can't simply be judged on the first few months of the season as though no information about them existed before Opening Day, and were we to have run this dating back to the start of 2013, it's clear that Samardzija is the best of the group. But the point isn't to say that any of the others are definitively better. It's to say they will undeniably be cheaper -- potentially considerably so -- and are likely to offer enough similar value to Samardzija at a fraction of the cost.
Take your pick
For starters, it's not like the others have never experienced success. Kennedy, for example, finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2011 and gave the Arizona Diamondbacks solid performances in both 2010 and 2012 as well. But after he struggled to begin 2013, he was dealt to the San Diego Padres for what seemed a surprisingly underwhelming return -- Joe Thatcher, though effective, was still a 31-year-old left-handed relief specialist.
[+] EnlargeIan Kennedy
Denis Poroy/Getty Images
Kennedy is fanning more than a man per inning for the first time in his career.
Once in San Diego, Kennedy's mechanics were changed by Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley. The result? Kennedy's fastball, which had averaged barely 90 mph by the end of 2012, is now at nearly 93, the hardest he's ever thrown. Unsurprisingly, Kennedy's strikeout rate has shot back up, to the point that his 25.9 percent whiff rate is the 12th best in baseball. Like Samardzija, he's arbitration-eligible next year; despite similar 2014 performance and a higher peak in his past, it seems unlikely the Padres would ask for as much for Kennedy as the Cubs would for Samardzija.
Hammel, on the other hand, will be a free agent this winter, giving the Cubs another good trade chip. Hammel put up a few solid, if rarely noticed, years for the Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles before collapsing due to a 2012 knee injury and 2013 arm trouble. Healthy again this season, Hammel has all but abandoned his curve and changeup in favor of his slider, and with good reason -- over 40 percent of swings against it have ended in a miss. A .234 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) indicates some amount of regression is coming, but as long as Hammel is walking fewer than two batters per nine innings, he can limit the damage.
As for McCarthy, that's admittedly a tougher sell: Even when you know better than to look at such things, it's going to be hard for people to get past 1-8, 5.13 ERA. It should be remembered that the Diamondbacks are among the worst teams in baseball -- it took Samardzija nearly two months to get a win himself -- which doesn't help, but neither does McCarthy's unusually high home run rate.
Of course, most of that was concentrated early in the season (he allowed seven homers in his first five games, and only five in his past eight) and his ground ball rate of 55.5 percent is by far the best of his career.
Combined with increased velocity, as he's shockingly touching 95 mph with regularity now, he's striking batters out more than ever. More strikeouts plus fewer walks plus more ground balls generally leads to good things, and McCarthy is a great candidate to improve.
Remember, a pitcher traded at the deadline will make approximately 12 starts for his new team. Over that span, Samardzija might -- might -- be worth one extra win over the others. Yes, you get Samardzija for more than just this year, which has value, but if your primary goal is adding a pitcher for the 2014 playoff chase, there are other reasonable alternatives out there who will cost a lot less.
Five teams with new No. 1 prospects.
The 2014 Rule 4 Draft is over, which means every club just got an influx of top talent into its farm system. Assuming all these top picks sign, here are five teams who just acquired a new No. 1 prospect as well as notes on two other teams' first overall picks and where they might slot into the prospect rankings of each organization.
Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP
The White Sox's top two prospects coming into 2014, Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson, have disappointed thus far. (Johnson has also lost eligibility for the list by passing the 50-inning threshold.) That makes the top of their list muddled. There's Courtney Hawkins, who is having a strong second go with Winston-Salem of the high-Class A Carolina League; Tim Anderson, who is hitting for average (.309) and playing good defense at shortstop for Winston-Salem but has shown poor plate discipline; and Micah Johnson, now up in Triple-A after a brief but successful run with Double-A Birmingham.
Rodon passes all three as a near-MLB-ready starter with a grade-70 slider and above-average fastball. Issues with Rodon's delivery have led to command problems and slightly reduced velocity, but the White Sox have an excellent track record of working with pitchers with unusual or difficult arm actions. Getting Rodon better extension out front and a cleaner finish will help him throw more strikes and maybe add more to his fastball. If all goes well, he should be in their rotation by this time next year -- perhaps with Micah Johnson playing somewhere behind him.
Los Angeles Angels: Sean Newcomb, LHP
The Angels didn't have a top-100 prospect coming into 2014, but they almost certainly will this offseason with Newcomb, a power lefty from the University of Hartford who has been up to 96-97 mph and can sit 92-94 with minimal effort, flashing two above-average secondary pitches in a curve and changeup. He's a clear starter who is probably just two years away from the majors as he works on improving his command and control; both were better toward the end of the spring.
Newcomb needs to develop more consistency with his off-speed stuff, probably by ditching the slider to focus on the curveball. He's an easy choice over two teenage arms in the Angels' extended spring training, Hunter Green and Ricardo Sanchez, as well as fast-rising shortstop Jose Rondon, who is hitting .333 for high-Class A Inland Empire.
Seattle Mariners: Alex Jackson, C
The Mariners' top prospect coming into the year was Taijuan Walker, but he has missed the majority of the season with recurring shoulder soreness, a malady likely caused by an upright finish in his delivery that has also softened his once-plus (and sharp) curveball. Walker is still a promising starter if he can get and stay healthy, but the risk, now even greater than the risk normally associated with pitching, slides him just behind Jackson, one of the best prep hitters in the draft class.
Jackson projects to hit, and for serious power. While he is fully capable of catching in pro ball, the general sense in the industry is that his team would pull a Bryce Harper/Wil Myers and move Jackson to third base or right field. He slots in ahead of D.J. Peterson, whose stat line is artificially boosted by playing his home games in the hitter-friendly park in High Desert, and Austin Wilson, who's too old for the low-Class A Midwest League and should have started the year with Peterson in high Class A.
Detroit Tigers: Derek Hill, CF
The Tigers had one top-100 prospect coming into 2014, Nick Castellanos, who has since graduated from the list and locked down an every-day job in the majors. No one else was particularly close. Eugenio Suarez has had a great 2014 season and provides huge value on defense, but he's also in the majors and I don't think the Venezuelan shortstop is heading back to Toledo at any point.
That leaves a big void up top for Hill, a plus runner and plus defender in center with a compact swing and plenty of physical projection to add some pop as he matures. The cousin of Darryl Strawberry and son of a longtime Dodgers scout, Hill spent most of his childhood in Iowa and played only the last three years in NorCal, so he's not quite as experienced as your typical California high school pick. Still, his thin résumé presents the potential for tremendous growth. I had him as the 11th-best player in the draft, and the Tigers nabbing him at 23 seems like a steal.
New York Mets: Michael Conforto, OF
This is a toss-up for me between Conforto, an advanced college hitter who had a .504 OBP this year at Oregon State, and Noah Syndergaard, who came back from a forearm strain only to hurt his nonthrowing shoulder in the first inning of his start Thursday. Syndergaard's injuries aren't a concern for his long-term outlook, but he's a pitcher. Given the choice between a topflight pitching prospect like Syndergaard (also known as "Thor") and a topflight hitting prospect like Conforto, I lean toward the latter for the simple reason of predictability.
Conforto could go right to high Class A or Double-A with his approach. If the Mets want to be aggressive, he could an option for their major league outfield by the end of 2015. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo is a solid No. 3 on this list. I'm also not concerned about Dominic Smith's stats to date because low-Class A Savannah has a horrendous ballpark for left-handed power hitters.
Close but not quite
San Francisco Giants: Tyler Beede, RHP
Righty Kyle Crick has more upside and southpaw Edwin Escobar is closer to the majors, but if Beede can throw enough quality strikes, he has the potential to be better than both of them. Still, given Beede's history of inconsistent command and poor responses to on-field adversity, that's an enormous "if."
Beede will pitch at 92-95 mph and has a plus changeup that he can cut or fade as needed. His breaking ball varies from start to start, but it's fair to call it a future grade-55 pitch. If I were reordering the Giants' top 10 right now, I would slot Beede in third, but he's close enough to the top to mention here and monitor going forward. If the Giants get him out to a full-season affiliate, we'll get to see if his command is any better.
Houston Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP
Aiken was the best player in the draft class and the first overall pick, but he's entering the majors' top farm system. Shortstop Carlos Correa is the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, behind only Minnesota's Byron Buxton, and I believe reports of Mark Appel's demise as a prospect are exaggerated, as he has still been hitting 95-97 despite struggling with a nerve issue in his thumb and having no command in his last outing for Lancaster.
I'd put Aiken after those two but ahead of right-hander Mike Foltynewicz and third baseman Rio Ruiz.
Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP
The White Sox's top two prospects coming into 2014, Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson, have disappointed thus far. (Johnson has also lost eligibility for the list by passing the 50-inning threshold.) That makes the top of their list muddled. There's Courtney Hawkins, who is having a strong second go with Winston-Salem of the high-Class A Carolina League; Tim Anderson, who is hitting for average (.309) and playing good defense at shortstop for Winston-Salem but has shown poor plate discipline; and Micah Johnson, now up in Triple-A after a brief but successful run with Double-A Birmingham.
Rodon passes all three as a near-MLB-ready starter with a grade-70 slider and above-average fastball. Issues with Rodon's delivery have led to command problems and slightly reduced velocity, but the White Sox have an excellent track record of working with pitchers with unusual or difficult arm actions. Getting Rodon better extension out front and a cleaner finish will help him throw more strikes and maybe add more to his fastball. If all goes well, he should be in their rotation by this time next year -- perhaps with Micah Johnson playing somewhere behind him.
Los Angeles Angels: Sean Newcomb, LHP
The Angels didn't have a top-100 prospect coming into 2014, but they almost certainly will this offseason with Newcomb, a power lefty from the University of Hartford who has been up to 96-97 mph and can sit 92-94 with minimal effort, flashing two above-average secondary pitches in a curve and changeup. He's a clear starter who is probably just two years away from the majors as he works on improving his command and control; both were better toward the end of the spring.
Newcomb needs to develop more consistency with his off-speed stuff, probably by ditching the slider to focus on the curveball. He's an easy choice over two teenage arms in the Angels' extended spring training, Hunter Green and Ricardo Sanchez, as well as fast-rising shortstop Jose Rondon, who is hitting .333 for high-Class A Inland Empire.
Seattle Mariners: Alex Jackson, C
The Mariners' top prospect coming into the year was Taijuan Walker, but he has missed the majority of the season with recurring shoulder soreness, a malady likely caused by an upright finish in his delivery that has also softened his once-plus (and sharp) curveball. Walker is still a promising starter if he can get and stay healthy, but the risk, now even greater than the risk normally associated with pitching, slides him just behind Jackson, one of the best prep hitters in the draft class.
Jackson projects to hit, and for serious power. While he is fully capable of catching in pro ball, the general sense in the industry is that his team would pull a Bryce Harper/Wil Myers and move Jackson to third base or right field. He slots in ahead of D.J. Peterson, whose stat line is artificially boosted by playing his home games in the hitter-friendly park in High Desert, and Austin Wilson, who's too old for the low-Class A Midwest League and should have started the year with Peterson in high Class A.
Detroit Tigers: Derek Hill, CF
The Tigers had one top-100 prospect coming into 2014, Nick Castellanos, who has since graduated from the list and locked down an every-day job in the majors. No one else was particularly close. Eugenio Suarez has had a great 2014 season and provides huge value on defense, but he's also in the majors and I don't think the Venezuelan shortstop is heading back to Toledo at any point.
That leaves a big void up top for Hill, a plus runner and plus defender in center with a compact swing and plenty of physical projection to add some pop as he matures. The cousin of Darryl Strawberry and son of a longtime Dodgers scout, Hill spent most of his childhood in Iowa and played only the last three years in NorCal, so he's not quite as experienced as your typical California high school pick. Still, his thin résumé presents the potential for tremendous growth. I had him as the 11th-best player in the draft, and the Tigers nabbing him at 23 seems like a steal.
New York Mets: Michael Conforto, OF
This is a toss-up for me between Conforto, an advanced college hitter who had a .504 OBP this year at Oregon State, and Noah Syndergaard, who came back from a forearm strain only to hurt his nonthrowing shoulder in the first inning of his start Thursday. Syndergaard's injuries aren't a concern for his long-term outlook, but he's a pitcher. Given the choice between a topflight pitching prospect like Syndergaard (also known as "Thor") and a topflight hitting prospect like Conforto, I lean toward the latter for the simple reason of predictability.
Conforto could go right to high Class A or Double-A with his approach. If the Mets want to be aggressive, he could an option for their major league outfield by the end of 2015. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo is a solid No. 3 on this list. I'm also not concerned about Dominic Smith's stats to date because low-Class A Savannah has a horrendous ballpark for left-handed power hitters.
Close but not quite
San Francisco Giants: Tyler Beede, RHP
Righty Kyle Crick has more upside and southpaw Edwin Escobar is closer to the majors, but if Beede can throw enough quality strikes, he has the potential to be better than both of them. Still, given Beede's history of inconsistent command and poor responses to on-field adversity, that's an enormous "if."
Beede will pitch at 92-95 mph and has a plus changeup that he can cut or fade as needed. His breaking ball varies from start to start, but it's fair to call it a future grade-55 pitch. If I were reordering the Giants' top 10 right now, I would slot Beede in third, but he's close enough to the top to mention here and monitor going forward. If the Giants get him out to a full-season affiliate, we'll get to see if his command is any better.
Houston Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP
Aiken was the best player in the draft class and the first overall pick, but he's entering the majors' top farm system. Shortstop Carlos Correa is the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, behind only Minnesota's Byron Buxton, and I believe reports of Mark Appel's demise as a prospect are exaggerated, as he has still been hitting 95-97 despite struggling with a nerve issue in his thumb and having no command in his last outing for Lancaster.
I'd put Aiken after those two but ahead of right-hander Mike Foltynewicz and third baseman Rio Ruiz.
Complete AL draft breakdown.
Here are my team recaps of the drafts so far, through 10 rounds, for all 15 American League teams. I'll have a similar piece up on Monday for the National League.
Note: We use the 20-80 grading scale for all MLB prospects.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles didn't pick at all on Day 1; their first selection was Brian Gonzalez at 91st overall (Round 3), a lefty from Florida's Archbishop McCarthy High School, at which his pitching coach was former big leaguer Alex Fernandez. Gonzalez is very interesting for a third-rounder, built like a big league starter already and showing three pitches. His velocity is mostly in the 89-93 mph range, and he has a plus changeup in the upper 70s that he just needs to hide a little more out of his hand. Fernandez’s curveball is developing but has good shape, and his command is solid for his age. He's got a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
Right-hander Pat Connaughton (Round 4) played hoops and pitched for Notre Dame; he's been up to 98 mph but sits in the low 90s with a good changeup that was wildly overused by coach Mik Aoki (the same coach who threw a reliever 150 pitches while he was at Boston College); he needs to switch from a curveball to a slider to have a chance at a good breaking ball. Right-hander David Hess (Round 5) is more interesting, a soundly built starter who's touched 97, with an average curve and fringy changeup, needing work on command and control. Tanner Scott (Round 6) is a left-hander at Howard JC with outstanding arm strength but below-average control (45 walks in 63 innings); his brother Tyler just signed with the Minnesota Vikings as a free agent. After that, the Orioles went for discounted players, taking four college seniors.
Boston Red Sox
The Sox added a lot of right-handed power, along with several interesting arms, in a typically strong draft. Michael Chavis (Round 1), a shortstop from Sprayberry High School outside Atlanta, projects to hit and hit for power, with a little tendency to overswing and need to adjust better to breaking stuff. His is a bat that should play at second or third; he's filled out physically but plays with very high intensity and gets more out of his body than you'd expect.
Texas prep righty Michael Kopech (Round 1A) throws a ton of strikes with a very quick arm and a funky delivery that provides a lot of deception, like he's got limbs coming at you from every which way. And oh, by the way, he's up to 98 mph and has a short, sharp breaking ball. I do think the Sox will have to quiet down the delivery for health and command reasons eventually. Sam Travis (Round 2) was one of my favorite second-tier college bats in the draft, a first baseman who's a good athlete and has a very short, direct swing with line-drive power. An aggressive hitter, he hunts fastballs early in the count and played all 2013 with a broken hamate bone. Jake Cosart (Round 3), younger brother of Houston Astros pitcher Jarred, probably isn't a starter in the long term, but he does have a super-quick arm and has run it up to 98 with downhill plane and a pretty good curveball. Kevin McAvoy (Round 4) of Bryant University works mostly at 89-92, though he has huge sink on the pitch, getting a 72 percent ground ball rate with a fringy slider. He touched 96 and sat 93-94 at Bryant's first-ever regional appearance last month.
Danny Mars (Round 6) is a 55-60 runner with a plus arm and can play center field; he's got some pop but can bar out his lead arm and has to be a little more flexible at the plate. Kevin Steen (Round 9) is a 6-foot-3, 170 pound right-handed prep pitcher who was playing basketball to the end of March, going to the state championships in which his school, Oak Ridge (Tennessee), lost by just two points. He didn't start pitching in games until late April, but his arm is quick and he's been picking up velocity late, much as you'd expect from a kid in the Northeast who started late due to cold weather.
New York Yankees
The Yanks didn't pick until the middle of the second round, 55th overall, at which they grabbed one of the best college relievers in the draft in Mississippi State lefty Jacob Lindgren (Round 2), who has a wipeout slider and the second-best ground ball rate of any pitcher in Division I this year. Austin DeCarr (Round 3) is a 19-year-old right-hander at the Salisbury School in Connecticut -- committed to Clemson -- and throws mostly 90-93 now with a chance for an above-average curveball; he's been pitching full time for only two years, so there might be more development ahead in his command and feel than for the typical 19-year-old.
Lefty Jordan Montgomery (Round 4) modeled himself after his former teammate, Michael Roth, as a soft-tossing lefty who relies on deception and changing speeds. Roth pitched with a 40-grade fastball, but Montgomery has a little more velocity -- just not enough for him to start. The Yankees took Jordan Foley (Round 5) out of high school in the 26th round, but he chose to go to Central Michigan; he's consistently in the 90-95 range but doesn't have an average breaking ball yet, using a splitter as his primary out pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays wanted a college bat at pick No. 20 and got one of the most accomplished ones in Casey Gillaspie (Round 1), younger brother of the Chicago White Sox's Conor; Casey is a switch-hitter and much stronger than Conor is, but like his brother, he doesn't use his lower half well, and he's limited to first base. Cameron Varga (Round 2) was a likely top-20 selection at the start of last summer, when he was among the two or three best pitchers at the Perfect Game National showcase, but he's struggled since then with a stomach cyst and shoulder issues. Scouts told me he gave max effort this spring, grunting on pitches, yet still couldn't match his previous velocity. He's a lottery ticket -- if the Rays can get him healthy, they just stole a first-rounder.
Brent Honeywell (Round 2B) was a clear money-saver, a junior college lefty who throws his fastball at 91-95 with a screwball and is almost certainly a reliever in the long run. Brock Burke (Round 3) is a very projectable prep lefty from Colorado, 86-91 mph with some sink, but needs a lot of work on his curve and change; he's an intriguing long-range prospect because his arm works well, but he doesn't use his lower half enough yet and has room to fill out physically. Blake Bivens (Round 4) works in the low 90s but has a plus curveball -- a mid-70s downer that might be a spike given how sharp its break is -- but needs a third pitch and has to show he can throw that curveball for a strike. Michael Russell (Round 5) is a high-contact hitter who will move to second base in pro ball, and possibly lacks the power to play every day. If Varga clicks, this'll be a good draft for them, but as someone who's lighter than most on Gillaspie's bat, I wouldn't call this one of my favorite draft classes.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have had their troubles in the first round in recent years, but I think they made up for it with their Day 1 selections this year. Right-hander Jeff Hoffman (Round 1) was projected to be in the top four picks before he blew out his elbow; the Jays can go for a deep discount here, since he won't pitch until late May of next year, and still have an 85 percent chance or so to get an elite talent, perhaps a top-of-the-rotation starter -- although he wasn't a finished product before his elbow snapped. Max Pentecost (Round 1) can catch, throw and run; he doesn't have power, but he has a good approach and feel to hit, although I don't love the way he loads with his hands holding the bat angled backward, which makes it hard to get it into the hitting zone in time.
Sean Reid-Foley (Round 2) had first-round buzz with a not-great delivery that he repeats very well -- he takes a huge stride, straightening his front leg like he's applying to the Ministry of Silly Walks, but he pronates his arm late. He's got three pitches and throws strikes, touching 95 mph but sitting more 90-93. Nick Wells (Round 3) was a slight reach for me, as he'd shown third-round potential but slipped in the second half of his season. He's a 6-6 lefty with a true curveball with shape and depth, a potential plus pitch down the road if he adds some velocity and arm speed as he fills out.
Catcher Matt Morgan (Round 4) receives well with an average arm, but he tends to get under his throws and arc them rather than throw them on a line. He's got a balanced approach and line-drive swing path, so he might profile as an offensive catcher. Right fielder Lane Thomas (Round 5) was the best prep position player in Tennessee this year, a power/speed guy with a very inconsistent, loose swing and a well below-average hit tool. The real value in this draft was the first three picks, after which they continued to hunt for prep guys with tools but might have reached for those next three picks before switching to college players.
Cleveland Indians
USF outfielder Brad Zimmer (Round 1) had no business sliding to the 21st pick; he's a center fielder now who has a good approach and sound swing, and I think he'll develop at least average power, giving him a chance to be an impact player as long as he stays in the middle of the field. Justus Sheffield (Round 1A) was one of the best prep lefties in the country, a 90-94 mph fastball, a solid curveball, above-average changeup and a very good delivery; area scouts love his makeup, and, despite a commitment to Vanderbilt, he made it clear he wants to play pro ball.
UVA first baseman Mike Papi (Round 1A) was one of the most disciplined hitters in Division I this year, tying for third in walks drawn behind only Casey Gillaspie and Michael Conforto; he also has above-average power and has the arm and average running speed for an outfield corner. Right-hander Grant Hockin (Round 2), grandson of Harmon Killebrew, has an outstanding delivery and was 90-94 mph with his fastball and an above-average slider by year end; he's projectable but shows enough present stuff to merit a second-round pick. First baseman Bobby Bradley (Round 3) was a minor steal at 97th overall, a left-handed hitter with great bat speed and a balanced swing, projecting to hit for above-average to plus power; the track record of prep bats from Mississippi is poor, but the third round is a good spot to take on this kind of risk.
Minnesota high school lefty Sam Hentges (Round 4) is a lottery-ticket pick; he's 6-6, 235 pounds but is a long way off, currently in the upper 80s with his fastball and some feel for a curveball. Outfielder Greg Allen (Round 6) can really run but has no power -- he didn't homer in his junior or sophomore seasons and hit just .302 this season with a lower contact rate than a speed guy should have. I think he's probably a 4A guy or organizational player rather than a fifth outfielder. Shortstop Alexis Pantoja (Round 9) was the best prospect in Puerto Rico this year, a slick-fielding shortstop who has a long way to go with the bat to project even as a backup. Overall, it's an outstanding haul, a mixture of probability and upside that adds both arms and polished bats to the system.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers went against type by taking a prep bat in the first round, center fielder Derek Hill (Round 1), a plus defender already who can run and who has a sound, compact swing that should lead to plenty of contact and possibly average power down the road. Alabama right-hander Spencer Turnbull (Round 2) is built like a starter and sits 92-96 with his fastball in that role with a short slider that's a fringy pitch right now; his delivery is a little stiff, and he needs a better changeup to be a starter, so his range of outcomes is mid-rotation starter to power arm in the bullpen, with the latter a little more likely now. Grayston Greiner (Round 3) is a polished college catcher who should be at least a backup in the majors and who's had to catch a variety of pitching styles while at South Carolina.
Adam Ravenelle (Round 4) is more of a typical Tigers draft pick, a hard-throwing college reliever with an above-average slider and developing changeup and someone who should move quickly but needs to throw more strikes to do so. Third baseman Joey Pankake (Round 7), aside from having a great name, is a good value pick in the seventh round. He started the year as a possible third- or fourth-rounder but had a disappointing season that caused him to slide, with concerns about his ultimate position also hurting his stock.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals will have done very well with their Day 1 picks if the gambles they took on two pitchers with shoulder issues work out. TCU lefty Brandon Finnegan (Round 1) was headed for a top-10 spot before his shoulder barked; he came back healthy, but the injury highlighted concerns about his 5-10 stature and late pronation in his delivery. He looks like a reliever but has had so much success as a starter that the Royals have to leave him there and see if he can develop into a No. 2 or No. 3. Lefty Foster Griffin (Round 1A) is a three-pitch starter with some projection left; his velocity varied over the spring -- sometimes average, sometimes approaching plus -- and I think his curveball will improve as he fills out and can generate more arm speed with his legs.
Chase Vallot (Round 1A) is an offensive catcher who can hit and hit for power and earns raves for off-the-charts makeup, but he's a project behind the plate and might move to third base or right field because his bat is too good to wait for his defense to catch up. The other pitcher with shoulder issues was prep righty Scott Blewett (Round 2) from upstate New York. He was probably going to go as the Royals' first pick before he was shut down, making just one final outing before the draft, which the Royals attended heavily.
They took another college lefty in Central Florida's Eric Skoglund (Round 3), a tall, skinny southpaw with three average pitches and a frame that should be projectable, although he'll be 22 in October and should have started to fill out by now. Brandon Downes (Round 7) started the year well, homering twice off first-rounder Jeff Hoffman on the season's second weekend, but had a slightly disappointing season overall and might be a tweener as a corner outfielder who doesn't have the power to profile there.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox landed the draft's best college pitcher and one of its only prospects with a chance to be a quick impact guy in the majors, North Carolina State lefty Carlos Rodon (Round 1), whose slider was the best pitch in the entire draft class: 88-91 mph with vicious late bite. He's mostly 90-94 mph with the fastball now but has reached 96-97 and might be able to do so more consistently if the White Sox lengthen his delivery out and let him finish more smoothly. Rodon was worked too hard by the Wolfpack this spring, but Chicago is among the best organizations at keeping pitchers healthy.
Spencer Adams (Round 2) is a fastball/slider right-hander from an Atlanta-area high school; he's a superb athlete who looks like he could put 25 more pounds on his frame and has a chance for an above-average or better curveball. However, scouts didn't love the delivery with his late elbow pronation. Oregon State lefty Jace Fry (Round 3) is a potential back-end starter, a solid pitcher with good feel but average stuff across the board. The name Brett Austin (Round 4) should be familiar to Padres fans, as he turned down $1.5 million from them in 2011 and won't get close to that after two disappointing years at NC State. But he had a nice bounceback in his junior year, leading the Pack in average and slugging and coming in second in OBP on the roster. He's most likely a quality backup. Brian Clark (Round 9) was in Kent State's rotation, but I think his best chance to see the majors is as a fastball/slider guy out of the pen.
The Sox also took a flier on a very difficult sign on Day 3, right-hander Bryce Montes de Oca (Round 14), a 6-7, 265-pound right-hander with a lightning-quick arm and fastball up to 98 mph. However, he pitched only briefly this spring after a return from 2013 Tommy John surgery.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins had made it pretty clear they were taking Nick Gordon (Round 1) with the fifth overall pick, as Tom's son was the best all-around high school position player in the class. Gordon is a true shortstop with good hands and a plus arm who got stronger last winter and improved his hit tool and showed a little more pop as well. He projects to be an above-average, everyday shortstop with low risk of failure given his instincts, athleticism and bloodlines.
After that, the Twins decided to just go draft an entire bullpen, taking five straight college relievers headlined by the two hardest throwers in the class, Louisville's Nick Burdi (Round 2) and San Diego State's Michael Cederoth (Round 3), both of whom can hit 100 mph. Burdi shows better command and a wipeout, 90-92 mph slider along with it. I thought Jake Reed (Round 5) was the fourth-best college reliever in the class, a converted starter who sits in the mid-90s with plus-plus life, getting ground balls on 74 percent of his outs in play this spring. I saw Sam Clay (Round 4) in early April in a mediocre outing during which he had just average stuff, but he's shown better velocity in other outings.
Houston Astros
The Astros took the top player on my board with the first overall pick, San Diego high school lefty Brady Aiken (Round 1), an athletic, quick-armed starter who regularly reaches 95 mph, already averages 90-93 and has the makings of a plus curveball and changeup. Aiken's arm works very well, and he's been handled carefully by his coaches and father, so if there's such a thing as a high school pitcher with a lower risk of injury, this would be it. He's been compared to Clayton Kershaw, which is unfair to any prep pitcher, but it's better to say this is the Clayton Kershaw Starter Kit: If you were looking for someone with a one percent chance of developing into Kershaw (instead of the zero percent chance everyone else has), he'd look like this.
The Astros weren't done adding top talent, though, nabbing Derek Fisher (Round 1A) from Virginia with their next pick. Fisher has some of the best tools of any college player in the draft and turned down first-round money from the Rangers out of high school. He can run and has bat speed and raw power, but he's still unrefined as a player, especially in left field, where he often has FEMA on standby. A.J. Reed (Round 2) got my vote for this year's Golden Spikes Award, excelling at the plate and on the mound; he's at or near the top of the class for raw power and has a good approach, although his bat speed is just average and he's going to have a major adjustment to make in Double-A when he's consistently seeing good velocity.
The Astros went for even more power with J.D. Davis (Round 3) out of Cal State Fullerton, a first baseman with 70- or 80-grade raw power who had a disappointing year that probably slid him down a round in the draft. He has a plus arm but is so big he's limited to first base. Texas A&M right-hander Daniel Mengden (Round 4) pitched with a stress fracture in his back for much of this year, but when healthy, he's got above-average velocity and is an incredible competitor. Mengden might have two plus pitches in a relief role, but he's had enough success to start in pro ball and see if the lack of fastball life becomes a problem for him.
Jacob Nix (Round 5) was a fringe first-round candidate early in the year, but a strong commitment to UCLA and inconsistent velocity in March and April caused him to slide; he had a firm number for signability, and I imagine his selection here means the Astros believe they can sign him. I thought he was a potential first-rounder in 2017, given his size and chance for three above-average pitches at a program that has churned out some pretty good arms recently. The Astros might have enough money left for another over-slot pick on Saturday, too, which would make a very good draft class even better.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels got the draft's No. 2 college lefty, University of Hartford starter Sean Newcomb (Round 1), with their first-round pick: a big southpaw with three above-average pitches when he has all three working. Newcomb's velocity comes very easy, and he needs work on subtler things like fastball command and mixing his pitches, not on stuff. Joey Gatto (Round 2) fell out of my rankings after a very volatile spring, during which his command and control wavered; he was more popular with cross-checkers than area scouts, as his stuff -- a fastball from 90-94 and a curveball with good shape -- didn't always play up to potential. He does have the body and delivery you look for in a prep righty.
Chris Ellis (Round 3) also has the size to be a starter and the fastball/changeup combination to do it, probably at the back of a major league rotation; his fastball should have more plane, and he should probably switch from a slider to a true curveball given his arm slot. Both Jeremy Rhoades (Round 4) and Jake Jewell (Round 5) project as power bullpen arms. Rhoades features a potential out pitch in his slider, while Jewell hits 97 mph frequently and averages 93-95 with an above-average breaking ball. Georgia prep outfielder Alex Abbott (Round 6) has some raw power, but it doesn't show up in games yet; he's headed for a corner-outfield spot, and, at 19 years old, has less development time left than your average high school draftee.
Oakland Athletics
The A's took an elite defender with their first pick, nabbing Cal State Fullerton third baseman Matt Chapman (Round 1) at No. 25 overall. Chapman has power but hasn't hit well for average over his three years in college; he's a difference-maker in the field, however, with a plus-plus arm that gives the A's a fallback option of putting him on the mound if he's an unexpected disaster as a hitter. Clemson right-hander Daniel Gossett (Round 2) has had success as a starter with an average fastball and above-average slider combo, but he's only about 5-10 and doesn't get plane on his fastball. He cuts himself off at his landing, and his late arm acceleration might point to a future in the bullpen.
Missouri right-hander Brett Graves (Round 3) should have been a Day 1 pick, and I think playing for a terrible team this spring might have hurt his stock; he has the fastball and the control to be a big league starter, needing to refine his two off-speed pitches -- a slider and changeup -- so he can miss more bats. Heath Fillmyer (Round 5) was a popup kid at a New Jersey junior college, rising up to 96 mph on his fastball with a solid breaking ball and athletic delivery, though he needs a third pitch and fell off down the stretch after being a converted position player who threw only nine innings in 2013. Trace Loehr (Round 6) earned a lot of comparisons to Rays prospect Ryan Brett, as both are undersized middle infielders from the Pacific Northwest who have short, contact-oriented swings and play like their hair is on fire. Loehr, like Brett, is probably destined for second base in pro ball.
Brandon Cogswell (Round 7) was moved off shortstop by freshman Daniel Pinero at UVA this spring, but he should return to shortstop in pro ball and could profile as a good utility infielder who makes a ton of contact and slaps his way to the big leagues. Branden Kelliher (Round
was an interesting pick so late in the draft, a 5-11 high school righty who is committed to the University of Oregon. Kelliher has an average fastball and above-average curveball. If the A's can sign him, they should tell him to just follow Sonny Gray around all winter and spring.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners put most of their eggs in two baskets: catcher Alex Jackson (Round 1) and outfielder Gareth Morgan (Round 2A), both likely over-slot signings but players with huge offensive upside. Jackson, taken No. 6 overall, had the best pure high school bat in the class, projecting to hit for power and unlikely to remain a catcher because the bat is too advanced. He will most likely end up in right field, with third base also a possibility. The biggest knock on Jackson has been maturity and attitude, but the key baseball tools are all there for him to become a middle-of-the-order bat.
Morgan provides real right-handed power and kept getting better as the spring went on, going from a crude, power-only goof last summer to a more complete hitter with a cleaner swing by the time the draft arrived. Austin Cousino (Round 3) was one of the best defensive players in Division I this year, a true center fielder who has bat speed but no approach at the plate and well below-average power. Dan Altavilla (Round 5) became the first player ever from Division II Mercyhurst to be drafted in the top 10 rounds, beating out David Lough, who was an 11th-rounder in 2007. Altavilla touches 94 mph with his fastball, will average 91-92 with inconsistent secondary stuff and led all of Division II in strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings. The Mariners took some money-saver picks after that, which will likely help them stay under their cap and still sign their first two picks.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers didn't have a true first-round pick after they gave one up to sign Shin-Soo Choo but did get pick No. 30 for losing Nelson Cruz. They used it on a true first-round talent in right-hander Luis Ortiz (Round 1A), a potential top-15 pick before a forearm issue caused him to miss a few starts. He came back healthy with the elbow intact and once again showed elite stuff, with easy velocity up to 96 mph and the makings of two above-average to plus off-speed pitches already. The biggest knock on him is his size, and he'll have to work hard to maintain his conditioning, but in baseball, you're not fat if you throw hard enough.
Ti'quan Forbes (Round 2) is a projectable athlete from Mississippi, a typical Rangers reach-for-the-stars pick, crude like most prep hitters from that state but with a great frame and chance for future power. He's very unlikely to stay at shortstop and will probably end up in the outfield with at least a shot for third base. UCLA commit Josh Morgan (Round 3) will probably move from short to second base in pro ball but does have a compact swing and above-average speed, more of a fourth- or fifth-rounder for me because of the lack of offensive upside. That's nitpicking at this point of the draft. After that, the Rangers took some gambles on arm-strength guys like Nick Green (Round 7) and Erik Swanson (Round, both junior college right-handers from Iowa, or projection guys like Brett Martin (Round 4), a very raw lefty from Walters State Community College in Tennessee. Many of these guys will sign under-slot deals with savings going to the team's top three picks or maybe an over-slot guy in Saturday's portion of the draft.
Note: We use the 20-80 grading scale for all MLB prospects.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles didn't pick at all on Day 1; their first selection was Brian Gonzalez at 91st overall (Round 3), a lefty from Florida's Archbishop McCarthy High School, at which his pitching coach was former big leaguer Alex Fernandez. Gonzalez is very interesting for a third-rounder, built like a big league starter already and showing three pitches. His velocity is mostly in the 89-93 mph range, and he has a plus changeup in the upper 70s that he just needs to hide a little more out of his hand. Fernandez’s curveball is developing but has good shape, and his command is solid for his age. He's got a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
Right-hander Pat Connaughton (Round 4) played hoops and pitched for Notre Dame; he's been up to 98 mph but sits in the low 90s with a good changeup that was wildly overused by coach Mik Aoki (the same coach who threw a reliever 150 pitches while he was at Boston College); he needs to switch from a curveball to a slider to have a chance at a good breaking ball. Right-hander David Hess (Round 5) is more interesting, a soundly built starter who's touched 97, with an average curve and fringy changeup, needing work on command and control. Tanner Scott (Round 6) is a left-hander at Howard JC with outstanding arm strength but below-average control (45 walks in 63 innings); his brother Tyler just signed with the Minnesota Vikings as a free agent. After that, the Orioles went for discounted players, taking four college seniors.
Boston Red Sox
The Sox added a lot of right-handed power, along with several interesting arms, in a typically strong draft. Michael Chavis (Round 1), a shortstop from Sprayberry High School outside Atlanta, projects to hit and hit for power, with a little tendency to overswing and need to adjust better to breaking stuff. His is a bat that should play at second or third; he's filled out physically but plays with very high intensity and gets more out of his body than you'd expect.
Texas prep righty Michael Kopech (Round 1A) throws a ton of strikes with a very quick arm and a funky delivery that provides a lot of deception, like he's got limbs coming at you from every which way. And oh, by the way, he's up to 98 mph and has a short, sharp breaking ball. I do think the Sox will have to quiet down the delivery for health and command reasons eventually. Sam Travis (Round 2) was one of my favorite second-tier college bats in the draft, a first baseman who's a good athlete and has a very short, direct swing with line-drive power. An aggressive hitter, he hunts fastballs early in the count and played all 2013 with a broken hamate bone. Jake Cosart (Round 3), younger brother of Houston Astros pitcher Jarred, probably isn't a starter in the long term, but he does have a super-quick arm and has run it up to 98 with downhill plane and a pretty good curveball. Kevin McAvoy (Round 4) of Bryant University works mostly at 89-92, though he has huge sink on the pitch, getting a 72 percent ground ball rate with a fringy slider. He touched 96 and sat 93-94 at Bryant's first-ever regional appearance last month.
Danny Mars (Round 6) is a 55-60 runner with a plus arm and can play center field; he's got some pop but can bar out his lead arm and has to be a little more flexible at the plate. Kevin Steen (Round 9) is a 6-foot-3, 170 pound right-handed prep pitcher who was playing basketball to the end of March, going to the state championships in which his school, Oak Ridge (Tennessee), lost by just two points. He didn't start pitching in games until late April, but his arm is quick and he's been picking up velocity late, much as you'd expect from a kid in the Northeast who started late due to cold weather.
New York Yankees
The Yanks didn't pick until the middle of the second round, 55th overall, at which they grabbed one of the best college relievers in the draft in Mississippi State lefty Jacob Lindgren (Round 2), who has a wipeout slider and the second-best ground ball rate of any pitcher in Division I this year. Austin DeCarr (Round 3) is a 19-year-old right-hander at the Salisbury School in Connecticut -- committed to Clemson -- and throws mostly 90-93 now with a chance for an above-average curveball; he's been pitching full time for only two years, so there might be more development ahead in his command and feel than for the typical 19-year-old.
Lefty Jordan Montgomery (Round 4) modeled himself after his former teammate, Michael Roth, as a soft-tossing lefty who relies on deception and changing speeds. Roth pitched with a 40-grade fastball, but Montgomery has a little more velocity -- just not enough for him to start. The Yankees took Jordan Foley (Round 5) out of high school in the 26th round, but he chose to go to Central Michigan; he's consistently in the 90-95 range but doesn't have an average breaking ball yet, using a splitter as his primary out pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays wanted a college bat at pick No. 20 and got one of the most accomplished ones in Casey Gillaspie (Round 1), younger brother of the Chicago White Sox's Conor; Casey is a switch-hitter and much stronger than Conor is, but like his brother, he doesn't use his lower half well, and he's limited to first base. Cameron Varga (Round 2) was a likely top-20 selection at the start of last summer, when he was among the two or three best pitchers at the Perfect Game National showcase, but he's struggled since then with a stomach cyst and shoulder issues. Scouts told me he gave max effort this spring, grunting on pitches, yet still couldn't match his previous velocity. He's a lottery ticket -- if the Rays can get him healthy, they just stole a first-rounder.
Brent Honeywell (Round 2B) was a clear money-saver, a junior college lefty who throws his fastball at 91-95 with a screwball and is almost certainly a reliever in the long run. Brock Burke (Round 3) is a very projectable prep lefty from Colorado, 86-91 mph with some sink, but needs a lot of work on his curve and change; he's an intriguing long-range prospect because his arm works well, but he doesn't use his lower half enough yet and has room to fill out physically. Blake Bivens (Round 4) works in the low 90s but has a plus curveball -- a mid-70s downer that might be a spike given how sharp its break is -- but needs a third pitch and has to show he can throw that curveball for a strike. Michael Russell (Round 5) is a high-contact hitter who will move to second base in pro ball, and possibly lacks the power to play every day. If Varga clicks, this'll be a good draft for them, but as someone who's lighter than most on Gillaspie's bat, I wouldn't call this one of my favorite draft classes.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have had their troubles in the first round in recent years, but I think they made up for it with their Day 1 selections this year. Right-hander Jeff Hoffman (Round 1) was projected to be in the top four picks before he blew out his elbow; the Jays can go for a deep discount here, since he won't pitch until late May of next year, and still have an 85 percent chance or so to get an elite talent, perhaps a top-of-the-rotation starter -- although he wasn't a finished product before his elbow snapped. Max Pentecost (Round 1) can catch, throw and run; he doesn't have power, but he has a good approach and feel to hit, although I don't love the way he loads with his hands holding the bat angled backward, which makes it hard to get it into the hitting zone in time.
Sean Reid-Foley (Round 2) had first-round buzz with a not-great delivery that he repeats very well -- he takes a huge stride, straightening his front leg like he's applying to the Ministry of Silly Walks, but he pronates his arm late. He's got three pitches and throws strikes, touching 95 mph but sitting more 90-93. Nick Wells (Round 3) was a slight reach for me, as he'd shown third-round potential but slipped in the second half of his season. He's a 6-6 lefty with a true curveball with shape and depth, a potential plus pitch down the road if he adds some velocity and arm speed as he fills out.
Catcher Matt Morgan (Round 4) receives well with an average arm, but he tends to get under his throws and arc them rather than throw them on a line. He's got a balanced approach and line-drive swing path, so he might profile as an offensive catcher. Right fielder Lane Thomas (Round 5) was the best prep position player in Tennessee this year, a power/speed guy with a very inconsistent, loose swing and a well below-average hit tool. The real value in this draft was the first three picks, after which they continued to hunt for prep guys with tools but might have reached for those next three picks before switching to college players.
Cleveland Indians
USF outfielder Brad Zimmer (Round 1) had no business sliding to the 21st pick; he's a center fielder now who has a good approach and sound swing, and I think he'll develop at least average power, giving him a chance to be an impact player as long as he stays in the middle of the field. Justus Sheffield (Round 1A) was one of the best prep lefties in the country, a 90-94 mph fastball, a solid curveball, above-average changeup and a very good delivery; area scouts love his makeup, and, despite a commitment to Vanderbilt, he made it clear he wants to play pro ball.
UVA first baseman Mike Papi (Round 1A) was one of the most disciplined hitters in Division I this year, tying for third in walks drawn behind only Casey Gillaspie and Michael Conforto; he also has above-average power and has the arm and average running speed for an outfield corner. Right-hander Grant Hockin (Round 2), grandson of Harmon Killebrew, has an outstanding delivery and was 90-94 mph with his fastball and an above-average slider by year end; he's projectable but shows enough present stuff to merit a second-round pick. First baseman Bobby Bradley (Round 3) was a minor steal at 97th overall, a left-handed hitter with great bat speed and a balanced swing, projecting to hit for above-average to plus power; the track record of prep bats from Mississippi is poor, but the third round is a good spot to take on this kind of risk.
Minnesota high school lefty Sam Hentges (Round 4) is a lottery-ticket pick; he's 6-6, 235 pounds but is a long way off, currently in the upper 80s with his fastball and some feel for a curveball. Outfielder Greg Allen (Round 6) can really run but has no power -- he didn't homer in his junior or sophomore seasons and hit just .302 this season with a lower contact rate than a speed guy should have. I think he's probably a 4A guy or organizational player rather than a fifth outfielder. Shortstop Alexis Pantoja (Round 9) was the best prospect in Puerto Rico this year, a slick-fielding shortstop who has a long way to go with the bat to project even as a backup. Overall, it's an outstanding haul, a mixture of probability and upside that adds both arms and polished bats to the system.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers went against type by taking a prep bat in the first round, center fielder Derek Hill (Round 1), a plus defender already who can run and who has a sound, compact swing that should lead to plenty of contact and possibly average power down the road. Alabama right-hander Spencer Turnbull (Round 2) is built like a starter and sits 92-96 with his fastball in that role with a short slider that's a fringy pitch right now; his delivery is a little stiff, and he needs a better changeup to be a starter, so his range of outcomes is mid-rotation starter to power arm in the bullpen, with the latter a little more likely now. Grayston Greiner (Round 3) is a polished college catcher who should be at least a backup in the majors and who's had to catch a variety of pitching styles while at South Carolina.
Adam Ravenelle (Round 4) is more of a typical Tigers draft pick, a hard-throwing college reliever with an above-average slider and developing changeup and someone who should move quickly but needs to throw more strikes to do so. Third baseman Joey Pankake (Round 7), aside from having a great name, is a good value pick in the seventh round. He started the year as a possible third- or fourth-rounder but had a disappointing season that caused him to slide, with concerns about his ultimate position also hurting his stock.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals will have done very well with their Day 1 picks if the gambles they took on two pitchers with shoulder issues work out. TCU lefty Brandon Finnegan (Round 1) was headed for a top-10 spot before his shoulder barked; he came back healthy, but the injury highlighted concerns about his 5-10 stature and late pronation in his delivery. He looks like a reliever but has had so much success as a starter that the Royals have to leave him there and see if he can develop into a No. 2 or No. 3. Lefty Foster Griffin (Round 1A) is a three-pitch starter with some projection left; his velocity varied over the spring -- sometimes average, sometimes approaching plus -- and I think his curveball will improve as he fills out and can generate more arm speed with his legs.
Chase Vallot (Round 1A) is an offensive catcher who can hit and hit for power and earns raves for off-the-charts makeup, but he's a project behind the plate and might move to third base or right field because his bat is too good to wait for his defense to catch up. The other pitcher with shoulder issues was prep righty Scott Blewett (Round 2) from upstate New York. He was probably going to go as the Royals' first pick before he was shut down, making just one final outing before the draft, which the Royals attended heavily.
They took another college lefty in Central Florida's Eric Skoglund (Round 3), a tall, skinny southpaw with three average pitches and a frame that should be projectable, although he'll be 22 in October and should have started to fill out by now. Brandon Downes (Round 7) started the year well, homering twice off first-rounder Jeff Hoffman on the season's second weekend, but had a slightly disappointing season overall and might be a tweener as a corner outfielder who doesn't have the power to profile there.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox landed the draft's best college pitcher and one of its only prospects with a chance to be a quick impact guy in the majors, North Carolina State lefty Carlos Rodon (Round 1), whose slider was the best pitch in the entire draft class: 88-91 mph with vicious late bite. He's mostly 90-94 mph with the fastball now but has reached 96-97 and might be able to do so more consistently if the White Sox lengthen his delivery out and let him finish more smoothly. Rodon was worked too hard by the Wolfpack this spring, but Chicago is among the best organizations at keeping pitchers healthy.
Spencer Adams (Round 2) is a fastball/slider right-hander from an Atlanta-area high school; he's a superb athlete who looks like he could put 25 more pounds on his frame and has a chance for an above-average or better curveball. However, scouts didn't love the delivery with his late elbow pronation. Oregon State lefty Jace Fry (Round 3) is a potential back-end starter, a solid pitcher with good feel but average stuff across the board. The name Brett Austin (Round 4) should be familiar to Padres fans, as he turned down $1.5 million from them in 2011 and won't get close to that after two disappointing years at NC State. But he had a nice bounceback in his junior year, leading the Pack in average and slugging and coming in second in OBP on the roster. He's most likely a quality backup. Brian Clark (Round 9) was in Kent State's rotation, but I think his best chance to see the majors is as a fastball/slider guy out of the pen.
The Sox also took a flier on a very difficult sign on Day 3, right-hander Bryce Montes de Oca (Round 14), a 6-7, 265-pound right-hander with a lightning-quick arm and fastball up to 98 mph. However, he pitched only briefly this spring after a return from 2013 Tommy John surgery.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins had made it pretty clear they were taking Nick Gordon (Round 1) with the fifth overall pick, as Tom's son was the best all-around high school position player in the class. Gordon is a true shortstop with good hands and a plus arm who got stronger last winter and improved his hit tool and showed a little more pop as well. He projects to be an above-average, everyday shortstop with low risk of failure given his instincts, athleticism and bloodlines.
After that, the Twins decided to just go draft an entire bullpen, taking five straight college relievers headlined by the two hardest throwers in the class, Louisville's Nick Burdi (Round 2) and San Diego State's Michael Cederoth (Round 3), both of whom can hit 100 mph. Burdi shows better command and a wipeout, 90-92 mph slider along with it. I thought Jake Reed (Round 5) was the fourth-best college reliever in the class, a converted starter who sits in the mid-90s with plus-plus life, getting ground balls on 74 percent of his outs in play this spring. I saw Sam Clay (Round 4) in early April in a mediocre outing during which he had just average stuff, but he's shown better velocity in other outings.
Houston Astros
The Astros took the top player on my board with the first overall pick, San Diego high school lefty Brady Aiken (Round 1), an athletic, quick-armed starter who regularly reaches 95 mph, already averages 90-93 and has the makings of a plus curveball and changeup. Aiken's arm works very well, and he's been handled carefully by his coaches and father, so if there's such a thing as a high school pitcher with a lower risk of injury, this would be it. He's been compared to Clayton Kershaw, which is unfair to any prep pitcher, but it's better to say this is the Clayton Kershaw Starter Kit: If you were looking for someone with a one percent chance of developing into Kershaw (instead of the zero percent chance everyone else has), he'd look like this.
The Astros weren't done adding top talent, though, nabbing Derek Fisher (Round 1A) from Virginia with their next pick. Fisher has some of the best tools of any college player in the draft and turned down first-round money from the Rangers out of high school. He can run and has bat speed and raw power, but he's still unrefined as a player, especially in left field, where he often has FEMA on standby. A.J. Reed (Round 2) got my vote for this year's Golden Spikes Award, excelling at the plate and on the mound; he's at or near the top of the class for raw power and has a good approach, although his bat speed is just average and he's going to have a major adjustment to make in Double-A when he's consistently seeing good velocity.
The Astros went for even more power with J.D. Davis (Round 3) out of Cal State Fullerton, a first baseman with 70- or 80-grade raw power who had a disappointing year that probably slid him down a round in the draft. He has a plus arm but is so big he's limited to first base. Texas A&M right-hander Daniel Mengden (Round 4) pitched with a stress fracture in his back for much of this year, but when healthy, he's got above-average velocity and is an incredible competitor. Mengden might have two plus pitches in a relief role, but he's had enough success to start in pro ball and see if the lack of fastball life becomes a problem for him.
Jacob Nix (Round 5) was a fringe first-round candidate early in the year, but a strong commitment to UCLA and inconsistent velocity in March and April caused him to slide; he had a firm number for signability, and I imagine his selection here means the Astros believe they can sign him. I thought he was a potential first-rounder in 2017, given his size and chance for three above-average pitches at a program that has churned out some pretty good arms recently. The Astros might have enough money left for another over-slot pick on Saturday, too, which would make a very good draft class even better.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels got the draft's No. 2 college lefty, University of Hartford starter Sean Newcomb (Round 1), with their first-round pick: a big southpaw with three above-average pitches when he has all three working. Newcomb's velocity comes very easy, and he needs work on subtler things like fastball command and mixing his pitches, not on stuff. Joey Gatto (Round 2) fell out of my rankings after a very volatile spring, during which his command and control wavered; he was more popular with cross-checkers than area scouts, as his stuff -- a fastball from 90-94 and a curveball with good shape -- didn't always play up to potential. He does have the body and delivery you look for in a prep righty.
Chris Ellis (Round 3) also has the size to be a starter and the fastball/changeup combination to do it, probably at the back of a major league rotation; his fastball should have more plane, and he should probably switch from a slider to a true curveball given his arm slot. Both Jeremy Rhoades (Round 4) and Jake Jewell (Round 5) project as power bullpen arms. Rhoades features a potential out pitch in his slider, while Jewell hits 97 mph frequently and averages 93-95 with an above-average breaking ball. Georgia prep outfielder Alex Abbott (Round 6) has some raw power, but it doesn't show up in games yet; he's headed for a corner-outfield spot, and, at 19 years old, has less development time left than your average high school draftee.
Oakland Athletics
The A's took an elite defender with their first pick, nabbing Cal State Fullerton third baseman Matt Chapman (Round 1) at No. 25 overall. Chapman has power but hasn't hit well for average over his three years in college; he's a difference-maker in the field, however, with a plus-plus arm that gives the A's a fallback option of putting him on the mound if he's an unexpected disaster as a hitter. Clemson right-hander Daniel Gossett (Round 2) has had success as a starter with an average fastball and above-average slider combo, but he's only about 5-10 and doesn't get plane on his fastball. He cuts himself off at his landing, and his late arm acceleration might point to a future in the bullpen.
Missouri right-hander Brett Graves (Round 3) should have been a Day 1 pick, and I think playing for a terrible team this spring might have hurt his stock; he has the fastball and the control to be a big league starter, needing to refine his two off-speed pitches -- a slider and changeup -- so he can miss more bats. Heath Fillmyer (Round 5) was a popup kid at a New Jersey junior college, rising up to 96 mph on his fastball with a solid breaking ball and athletic delivery, though he needs a third pitch and fell off down the stretch after being a converted position player who threw only nine innings in 2013. Trace Loehr (Round 6) earned a lot of comparisons to Rays prospect Ryan Brett, as both are undersized middle infielders from the Pacific Northwest who have short, contact-oriented swings and play like their hair is on fire. Loehr, like Brett, is probably destined for second base in pro ball.
Brandon Cogswell (Round 7) was moved off shortstop by freshman Daniel Pinero at UVA this spring, but he should return to shortstop in pro ball and could profile as a good utility infielder who makes a ton of contact and slaps his way to the big leagues. Branden Kelliher (Round
was an interesting pick so late in the draft, a 5-11 high school righty who is committed to the University of Oregon. Kelliher has an average fastball and above-average curveball. If the A's can sign him, they should tell him to just follow Sonny Gray around all winter and spring. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners put most of their eggs in two baskets: catcher Alex Jackson (Round 1) and outfielder Gareth Morgan (Round 2A), both likely over-slot signings but players with huge offensive upside. Jackson, taken No. 6 overall, had the best pure high school bat in the class, projecting to hit for power and unlikely to remain a catcher because the bat is too advanced. He will most likely end up in right field, with third base also a possibility. The biggest knock on Jackson has been maturity and attitude, but the key baseball tools are all there for him to become a middle-of-the-order bat.
Morgan provides real right-handed power and kept getting better as the spring went on, going from a crude, power-only goof last summer to a more complete hitter with a cleaner swing by the time the draft arrived. Austin Cousino (Round 3) was one of the best defensive players in Division I this year, a true center fielder who has bat speed but no approach at the plate and well below-average power. Dan Altavilla (Round 5) became the first player ever from Division II Mercyhurst to be drafted in the top 10 rounds, beating out David Lough, who was an 11th-rounder in 2007. Altavilla touches 94 mph with his fastball, will average 91-92 with inconsistent secondary stuff and led all of Division II in strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings. The Mariners took some money-saver picks after that, which will likely help them stay under their cap and still sign their first two picks.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers didn't have a true first-round pick after they gave one up to sign Shin-Soo Choo but did get pick No. 30 for losing Nelson Cruz. They used it on a true first-round talent in right-hander Luis Ortiz (Round 1A), a potential top-15 pick before a forearm issue caused him to miss a few starts. He came back healthy with the elbow intact and once again showed elite stuff, with easy velocity up to 96 mph and the makings of two above-average to plus off-speed pitches already. The biggest knock on him is his size, and he'll have to work hard to maintain his conditioning, but in baseball, you're not fat if you throw hard enough.
Ti'quan Forbes (Round 2) is a projectable athlete from Mississippi, a typical Rangers reach-for-the-stars pick, crude like most prep hitters from that state but with a great frame and chance for future power. He's very unlikely to stay at shortstop and will probably end up in the outfield with at least a shot for third base. UCLA commit Josh Morgan (Round 3) will probably move from short to second base in pro ball but does have a compact swing and above-average speed, more of a fourth- or fifth-rounder for me because of the lack of offensive upside. That's nitpicking at this point of the draft. After that, the Rangers took some gambles on arm-strength guys like Nick Green (Round 7) and Erik Swanson (Round
, both junior college right-handers from Iowa, or projection guys like Brett Martin (Round 4), a very raw lefty from Walters State Community College in Tennessee. Many of these guys will sign under-slot deals with savings going to the team's top three picks or maybe an over-slot guy in Saturday's portion of the draft.Complete NL draft breakdown.
Following up on my American League recaps from Saturday, here is my team-by-team draft breakdown for every National League club.
Note: We often use the 20-80 scouting scale when discussing prospects.
Arizona Diamondbacks
I liked the D-backs' draft from the get-go. At 16, they took high-upside right-hander Touki Toussaint (Round 1), an athletic, loose-armed prep pitcher who will show a plus fastball and curveball, but this spring showed better command and a new changeup. Cody Reed (Round 2) could be a steal if the Snakes can keep his weight down. Reed sits 92-94, holding it deep into games, and will show an above-average breaking ball, but he's approached three bills and has a high flameout risk if he doesn't buy into a pro conditioning program.
Marcus Wilson (Round 2A) is a huge upside play, a plus runner with very quick, loose wrists who projects to have above-average power when his frame fills out; he overstrides in the box and loads his hands very high and deep, so he can be late to adjust to changing speeds and limits some of his power by getting on his front side too early.
Isan Diaz (Round 2A) is at the opposite end of the high school hitter spectrum, an advanced hitter who's hit with wood bats all through high school, boasting a short, balanced swing for line-drive contact. He's a shortstop now but a near lock to slide to second base in pro ball. Evaluating prep players' hit tools, especially when they play weak competition in school, is very difficult, but I was impressed by Diaz' performances last summer in showcases like the Area Code Games and the Metropolitan Classic at Citi Field.
Matt Railey (Round 3) has very quick wrists and might have above-average power if he can cut his stride and keep his front side firm; he's an average runner but might have the instincts to remain in center, which he'll probably have to do to profile as a regular or better. Cornell righty Brent Jones (Round 4) can run it up to 96 but without command; he profiles as a two-pitch reliever with a curveball as his out pitch. Mason McCullough (5) was kicked off the Tar Heels last year, transferred to Division II Lander, and then walked a man per inning facing far worse competition than he had at Chapel Hill. He can hit 100 mph, sits 94-96, has to be a one-inning reliever at this point, and might be this draft's Jason Neighborgall.
Middle Tennessee State's Zac Curtis (Round 6) led all of Division I in strikeouts this year, with two more than LSU's Aaron Nola, but profiles as a tough left-on-left reliever in pro ball. Junior college left fielder Grant Heyman (Round has huge raw power from the left side but not much else so far. Vanderbilt's Jared Miller (Round 11) has a chance to be a lefty reliever in pro ball, lacking the command to start. Kevin Cron (Round 14) has never shown the power at TCU that he showed back in high school, and he might want to go back for his senior year; he's the younger brother of the Angels' C.J. Cron. The D-backs also took three likely unsignable high school players in J.B. Bukauskus (Round 20), Willie Rios (Round 26), and Cam Bishop (Round 32), with Bukauskus telling scouts this spring he'd prefer to matriculate at UNC than sign.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta landed one of the best pure swings in the draft despite its lack of a first-round pick. Braxton Davidson (Round 1A) is a left-handed hitting outfielder who might end up at first base, but he has both patience and power; with Freddie Freeman signed to a long-term deal, Atlanta will likely give Davidson, who has a plus arm but is a 30-grade runner, every chance to stick in an outfield corner.
Texas prep righty Garrett Fulenchek (Round 2) has good sink on his average fastball, but a max-effort delivery with some head violence may push him to the pen if Atlanta can't clean him up. UNC-Greensboro right-hander Max Povse (Round 3) has good raw stuff, with a fastball at 92-97 and above-average slider, but needs to get better plane on his fastball from his 6-foot-8 frame. Atlanta might have stolen another day-one talent with South Carolina-Upstate Chad Sobotka (Round 4), who missed all of 2014 with a stress fracture in his back (I blame The Greek). Sobotka gets on top of his above-average fastball very well with a tight downward-breaking slider, but tends to fly open at release and will need to tighten that up to remain a starter -- a role where he could be a solid ground ball guy who misses bats with the slider as well.
Miami's Chris Diaz (Round 5) is a sinker/changeup lefty who gets a ton of ground balls but doesn't have the control to be a starter right now. Florida Southern's Keith Curcio (Round 6) was the Northwoods League's co-MVP last summer and whose primary skills are his plate discipline and speed, so the hope is that he has enough pop with wood to profile as a leadoff guy who plays center field. Reliever Brad Roney (Round was an interesting flier -- a two-way player who has a live arm but limited pitching experience, sitting low-90s with good two-seam tail on the pitch. Jordan Edgerton (Round 9) was one of the toughest hitters in Division II to strike out this year at UNC-Pembroke; he bars his lead arm but has some bat speed and good hip rotation for at least doubles power in pro ball. Overall it was among the strongest Atlanta draft classes in a while, with more polished selections but plenty of upside plays in the mix, although there were some other arms on the board in the second round I preferred to Fulenchek because of his delivery.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs reached significantly for Kyle Schwarber (Round 1), the fourth overall pick in the draft, a bat-first catcher who has maybe a 10 percent chance to stay behind the plate, and a higher chance to end up having to DH in pro ball, which might pose a problem for the Cubs unless they know something we don't about MLB rules. Schwarber does have huge raw power and a very good eye at the plate; his swing is really rotational with good leverage from his legs, but he sets up with a wide base and rolls over his front foot, which can pull him offline and hurt him against left-handed breaking stuff. I had him as more of a back-of-the-first-round talent.
The Cubs also took the draft's best college senior, Maryland starter Jake Stinnett (Round 2), who's been up to 97 from a low three-quarters arm slot and has a good slider when he doesn't get on the side of it; he has a starter's arsenal but the delivery might be more suited to relief, with a big plunge in back and trouble staying on top of the ball.
The Cubs also reached for Mark Zagunis (Round 3), a likely backup catcher who lacks power or patience but does put the ball in play a lot with a short swing after a no-load setup. After that, however, the Cubs went for pitching upside, taking three straight highly-rated high school arms as well as a handful quality college starters who were still available after the sixth round. Dylan Cease (Round 6) has the highest upside of all, hitting 98 earlier this spring with a cleaner delivery and curveball that flashed plus, but an elbow injury, reportedly a partial ligament tear for which Cease received PRP treatment rather than surgery, put him on the shelf from mid-March on. He was a top-15 pick if he'd stayed healthy and I imagine he'll expect a seven-figure bonus to buy him away from Vanderbilt.
Lefty Carson Sands (4) has three average pitches (fastball, curve, change) already with a chance to get the fastball up to a grade-60 pitch with some projection; his arm swing is a little long in back and he pronates slightly late but he stays on top of the ball well and gets some plane and tail on the fastball. Justin Steele (Round 5) is a power lefty from Mississippi whose fastball is 92-94 and he has a curveball with good shape and two-plane action. All three should have been top-three rounds selections.
Adding to that stable are the college arms I mentioned, led by St. Louis right-hander James Norwood (Round 7), who's been up to 97 but needs a viable breaking ball to go with it; and Fresno State right-hander Jordan Brink (Round 11), a former two-way player whose fastball ticked up when he started pitching full-time. Both guys are likely relievers but have sufficient chances to start that they should begin their pro careers in that role. Overall it's a good group of arms to infuse into a system that needs them, even if I didn't love the selections they made of the two college bats up top.
Cincinnati Reds
I thought the Reds reached for their first pick, Virginia reliever Nick Howard (Round 1), who has two plus pitches in a relief role but just an average fastball without life or downhill plane when starting. However, I loved their sandwich-round selection, Stanford third baseman Alex Blandino, who was among the best pure hitters in the draft class, with a great swing and outstanding plate discipline that showed this spring and last summer in the Cape Cod League as well. He's more than capable of handling third base, but many scouts liked the idea of moving him to second in pro ball, which I think wastes the value of his 55-60 arm.
Taylor Sparks (Round 2) is an all-or-nothing selection, a third baseman with plus-plus raw power -- Irvine hit 12 homers the whole season, and Sparks had five of them, as well as eight of the team's 22 triples -- but who strikes out at an inordinate rate and needs to tighten up his plate discipline to get to his power with wood.
USC's Wyatt Strahan (No. 3) can hit the mid-90s with some sink -- he didn't give up a homer all spring, although his home park helped with that -- but profiles better as a bullpen arm right now given his command and control. Oklahoma prep hitter Gavin LaValley (Round 4) fits in one of the industry's least-favorite categories, the high school first baseman, and he's not an advanced hitter, but he is very strong with bat speed, so the ball comes off his bat very well. Tejay Antone (Round 5) has a lively low-90s fastball and a loose arm, but his arm action is really long and deliberate, giving hitters a good look at the ball and making it hard for him to repeat it. Jose Lopez (Round 6) was a potential third-rounder before blowing out his elbow this spring, and he could be ready to go for spring training 2015, making his selection in the sixth round a good value play.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies took one of the more divisive players in the class, Evansville lefty Kyle Freeland (Round 1), with the eighth overall pick. If you like Freeland, you see Chris Sale Lite, a lefty with a low arm slot and a lot of deception who racks up a ton of strikeouts with his slider. If you don't, you see a power reliever who overuses the slider but still throws strikes and probably sits in the mid-90s in a one-inning role. I imagine the Rockies will give him every chance to start, given where they selected him.
Forrest Wall (Round 1A) was among the best pure bats in the high school class and is a plus runner, but his throwing shoulder never came back after 2011 labrum surgery, limiting him to second base, and he hurt his other shoulder in March. Arizona prep righty Ryan Castellani (Round 2) has a slender frame but a chance for three average pitches with good feel; if he has more room to put on weight than most scouts think, he could end up with an above-average or better fastball.
Sam Howard (Round 3) of Georgia Southern probably projects best in the pen, given his slight build and fringy off-speed pitches. Wes Rogers (Round 4) of Spartanburg Methodist College, a second-year JC player, is a true center fielder and good athlete overall who can run and take a pitch, with some length to his swing that may cause trouble when he reaches the higher levels of the minors. California prep third baseman Kevin Padlo (Round 5) is strong with present power despite barring his lead arm, and has the arm for third base; his swing and noisy lower half give him some trouble making consistent contact.
Redshirt sophomore Andrew Rohrbach (Round 9) was an interesting flier, a converted shortstop who threw four innings at College of the Canyons but became the Friday night starter for Long Beach State this year, throwing strikes and touching the mid-90s. He's a good candidate for a surprise spike in stuff when he gets to pro ball if he can avoid Tommy John surgery, the curse of so many position players who move to the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Grant Holmes (Round 1) was one of my favorite prep pitchers in the class, a command guy who reached 98 earlier this spring but will probably sit 92-93 every fifth day, with an above-average curveball as well. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, needing primarily to develop a third pitch but already showing the feel for pitching of a college guy. He was a top-15 talent and still available for L.A. at pick 22.
Alex Verdugo (Round 2) is a two-way player from Tucson who'll go out as a center fielder first, with the mound a backup option; he fell more than anything else due to makeup concerns, as he's a talented athlete who has a chance for a plus curveball and solid-average fastball on the mound, while he has a sound swing with an all-fields approach and should be a plus defender in right given time. At 6-foot, 200 pounds, he doesn't have physical projection left, but does have a lot of room for the development of other parts of his game, as long as he can stay on the field.
UNLV's John Richy (Round 3) was a surprise in the third round, 90-92 with good bore and an above-average changeup, but an upright finish and some head violence at release make him a reliever in the long run. Washington's Jeff Brigham (Round 4) will hit 95 regularly but isn't a strikeout guy, getting a 71 percent ground ball rate primarily with his fastball, as his off-speed stuff is fringy; he might have a Jake Westbrook ceiling if he can stay in the rotation.
Jared Walker (Round 5) has size and power but may end up in right field, and scouts questioned his makeup as well. California Baptist right-hander Trevor Oaks (Round 7) finished eighth in Division II in strikeouts, although he doesn't have an above-average pitch, changing speeds well with four average or fringe-average offerings. Stanford's A.J. Vanegas (Round 11) finally stayed healthy, more or less, and flashed mid-90s velocity, but his history of back problems pushed him out of the top 10 rounds. As a senior he needs to just sign and get out and pitch, since the $2 million-plus he turned down out of high school isn't coming back.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins landed the draft's hardest-throwing starter in Texas prep right-hander Tyler Kolek (Round 1), an enormous kid at 6-foot-6, 270-plus, who has hit 101 mph and can flash a plus slider; he needs work on all the finer points of pitching, from commanding the fastball to throwing the slider for strikes to developing any sort of changeup. It's a bet on tremendous raw material, the kind of bet that worked for them three years ago with Jose Fernandez, who was also a stuff-over-polish high school kid when drafted.
Blake Anderson (Round 1A) was the surprise pick of day one for me, not a top-five round prospect, a defense-first catcher with some pop but a below-average bat, and the history of Mississippi prep hitters in the draft is ugly. Justin Twine (Round 2) was a late riser this spring, a top high school quarterback who was committed to TCU for baseball, and probably moves off shortstop to second base in pro ball. He bars his lead arm a little but once he gets his hands started he's quick and direct to the ball, with line-drive power as well as above-average speed on the bases. He's a classic Marlins pick -- a two-sport guy with athleticism and significant offensive upside.
Arkansas second baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson (Round 3) is more of a utility guy than a starter, lacking a clear position in the infield but without the hit tool to profile at an outfield corner. Casey Soltis (Round 5) might be an outfield tweener, lacking the power for a corner but a little short defensively in center, although I think shortening his overly wide stance at the plate and allowing him to drive the ball better by transferring his weight will give him a chance to become an everyday right fielder.
Stone Garrett (Round might be a tough sign as a Rice commit and I don't think his bat is advanced enough for him to profile as an everyday player in left field. The Marlins took two familiar names to finish day two, Oregon State senior Ben Wetzler (Round 9) and Texas junior Dillon Peters (Round 10), both solid college lefties. Wetzler was the player suspended by the NCAA after the Phillies reported him for using the services of an agent when they drafted him last summer; he had a great senior year, with a 0.78 ERA, doing it more with feel and command as his stuff is fifth starter material. Peters is an undersized southpaw but has a curveball that should be very effective against lefties in pro ball.
Oklahoma prep righty Nick White (Round 11) comes straight over the top in his delivery, creating some head violence and putting pressure on the shoulder, but he reaches 94 with downhill plane and has good depth on a 12-to-6 curveball.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers needed a good draft to boost the majors' worst farm system, but it fell a little short for me, adding some upside, but zero probability. They rolled the dice on their first three picks, reaching for Hawaiian high school Kodi Medeiros (Round 1) with the 12th overall pick, a low-slot lefty with a plus slider and fastball up to 95 mph but with a reliever's build and delivery. I expect him to destroy hitters in the low minors, however, as they'll have a hard time picking up the ball from his arm slot.
Jacob Gatewood (Round 1A) was a solid second selection as a feast-or-famine pick, although I think it makes more sense to take a guy like Gatewood if you have a higher-probability pick already in the bank. Gatewood has 70-grade raw power but a well below-average hit tool, trying to pull everything rather than using the whole field and going for contact rather than big flies. He'll have to move off shortstop, probably to right field but with a chance for third base; if he changes his approach at the plate, and hits enough to get to that power in games, he'll profile at whatever position he plays.
Monte Harrison (Round 2) is also a low-floor, high-ceiling guy, a two-sport athlete committed to Nebraska for baseball and football who can run, throw, and hit for power, but struggled mightily against breaking stuff this spring and may be a two-year rookie ball guy. Cy Sneed (Round 3) was a reach in the third round, a mediocre starter for Dallas Baptist who lacks a plus pitch and doesn't have the command to get by without one.
Baltimore high schooler Troy Stokes (Round 4) is an undersized center fielder with a quick bat and above-average speed, although it would play better if he hit left-handed; he's expected to sign an under-slot deal. After that they took a number of college seniors and erratic Villanova reliever J.B. Kole (Round, all likely to save money to sign their first three picks. J.J. Schwarz (Round 17) will likely be a tough sign away from the University of Florida but was a second/third round talent as an offensive catcher, but if any of the big three fail to sign, the Brewers might turn to Schwarz as a solid fallback option.
New York Mets
The Mets nabbed the highest-floor hitter in the draft and one of its best pure bats in Michael Conforto (Round 1) of Oregon State, who was fifth in Division I with a .504 OBP this year. Conforto has an outstanding eye at the plate, of course, but his main tool is his ability to hit, with a simple, easy, yet powerful swing that generates hard line-drive contact as well as home run power. He's probably limited to left field but should be able to work himself up to average defensively.
The Mets lost their second-round pick for signing Curtis Granderson and took defensive wizard Milton Ramos (Round 3) with their second pick; he's a plus-plus defender and a plus runner but a minus bat right now, with a low load and weak hands that will have to improve for him to profile as a regular.
Eudor Garcia-Pacheco (Round 4) is a third baseman out of El Paso Community College who just turned 20 a few weeks ago; he'll move to first in pro ball but has very quick, strong hands, and power from the left side. Righty Josh Prevost (Round 5) had just 73 innings pitched in total over his first three years at Seton Hall, but threw 116 this year and walked only 20 men, sitting 91-94 with some downhill plane (you'd hope so, since he's 6-foot- and an above-average slider in the 79-83 mph range. Tyler Moore (Round 6) of LSU is a solid college catcher but probably a backup in the majors. Dash Winningham (Round can't run, which is just a shame.
Their late flier was on Iowa righty Keaton McKinney (Round 2, a strong commit to Arkansas but well worth a seven-figure bonus if the Mets have room for it, and they should have some extra coin left over given the signable guys they took after round three.
Philadelphia Phillies
It was an atypical draft for the Phillies, who usually go for upside and focus on high school players, but they went for probability this year and took college players with their first seven picks. Aaron Nola (Round 1) was the highest-floor college arm in the draft, boasting 70-grade command of a 91-93 mph fastball with two legitimate secondary pitches, only raising concerns because of a funky delivery and low three-quarters slot that reminds scouts of Chris Sale's arm action.
Cal Poly lefty Matt Imhof (Round 2) is also a high-floor, low-ceiling guy, missing a lot of bats in college with his slider and changeup but likely to have just an average fastball when he's going every fifth day. Two-way player Aaron Brown (Round 3) out of Pepperdine will apparently go out as a center fielder, where he has a plus arm and some power as a left-handed hitter, but his 52-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio this year is a little tough to take and I'd bet on him ending up on the mound eventually.
Arkansas' Chris Oliver (Round 4) could move very quickly as a pen guy, hitting 96 as a starter with a hard slurve, but he's still pretty slight and doesn't have an effective third pitch yet. Rhys Hoskins (Round 5) of Sacramento State is limited to first base but has an intriguing power/patience skill set, with good loft in his finish. Sam McWilliams (Round was their only high school pick in the top 28 rounds, which is a complete 180 from their typical draft pattern; he's a projectable 6-foot-7 right-hander from Tennessee with a rough arm action and no present breaking ball but has touched 94 and will probably find more than that as he fills out.
Austin Davis (Round 12) was a potential top three rounds pick earlier in the spring when he was hitting 95 for Cal State Bakersfield, but he couldn't hold his velocity and might go back for another year to try to get into the top five rounds.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates reached a little for Cole Tucker (Round 1), a prep shortstop from Tempe, Arizona, but I heard after day one that at least two other teams were on him in the next 15 picks, so the industry seemed to support his selection there. He's a switch-hitter with doubles power and above-average running speed, possibly staying at short but a little more likely to slide to second base, where his bat will still profile. Scouts adore his makeup and he was one of the best players at this year's NHSI event at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, North Carolina.
San Diego's Connor Joe (Round 1A) was a big overdraft, however, a college catcher who can't handle the position; he can hit and has above-average to plus power, but he has to find a position. The Bucs then took two outstanding prep arms, Mitch Keller (Round 2) from Iowa and Trey Supak (Round 2A) from Texas. Keller spiked to 90-94 this spring, doing it fairly easily from a 3/4 slot as his arm continues to speed up, and his two-plane curveball projects as plus if that happens. Supak has an outstanding delivery and great projection; he's got average stuff right now but everything works and he's going to fill out his 6-foot-5 frame. In a year when everyone's obsessing over pitcher injuries and deliveries, Supak should have gone higher.
They started day two with a pair of solid college bats, Fresno State rightfielder Jordan Luplow (Round 3) and Florida catcher Taylor Gushue (Round 4). Luplow is a disciplined hitter with above-average power, although he loads his hands low and locks his elbow slightly, something that works for a handful of big league hitters (Hunter Pence) but is more often an obstacle to making contact. Gushue looked at times like a day-one talent but never had the offensive consistency to get there; he's a switch-hitting catcher with some pop and an above-average arm, and won't turn 21 until December. He's got a chance to become an everyday backstop, which is an extremely valuable asset. Nelson Jorge (Round 7) is a flier on a good athlete with limited present baseball skills, one of the better prospects in a very weak draft year in Puerto Rico.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed to build their draft around signing one player, Jack Flaherty (Round 1A), their second pick, a tough-sign high school right-hander with great present command of average stuff but some upside due to his frame and athleticism. Primarily a third baseman with major questions on the bat, Flaherty was frequently 89-93 but it's easy and fluid.
The Cards took FSU starter Luke Weaver (Round 1), a potential first-rounder coming into the year who showed reduced stuff, a 90-94 mph flat fastball, above-average changeup, and 40-grade slider; he's a competitor but the stuff is too hittable and the lack of fastball life makes him homer-prone.
Ronnie Williams (Round 2) is a a 6-foot prep righty from Florida who's mostly 90-92 and already seems to be getting the most from his lower half, with fringy off-speed stuff. Andrew Morales (Round 2A) was a possible money-saver, a senior out of UC-Irvine who can really pitch, mostly 88-93 with some arm-side run, a curveball and changeup, but effort to his delivery with some head violence that makes his above-average control a little surprising.
Loyola Marymount's Trevor Megill (Round 3) missed the year after Tommy John surgery -- I was at the start where he got hurt, allegedly leaving because he had the flu (in his elbow, apparently) -- but was a potential day-one pick had he been healthy, sitting low 90s with a 6-foot-8, 235-pound frame. He'll probably demand an over-slot bonus because he could return to Loyola Marymount as a redshirt junior next year.
Florida Atlantic lefty Austin Gomber (Round 4) rarely walks anyone, with just 15 free passes issued out of 303 batters faced, despite a goofy delivery with a big torso-turn that doesn't generate much torque from his hips. He has three average or fringe-average pitches, mostly 88-92 on the fastball, but is slightly young for his class, which the Cardinals value extremely highly. I know some teams loved Flaherty for his command, but I don't think he's a first-round talent or a $2 million-plus guy, and after he and Megill, there isn't a lot of upside in this crop.
San Diego Padres
The Padres were over the moon to get NC State shortstop Trea Turner (Round 1) with the 13th selection, a possible top-10 pick coming into the year who struggled in the first half of the season but had a strong final push, trying to shorten up his swing and make more consistent, harder contact, even hitting for some unexpected power. He's a 70-grade runner who likely stays at short but has trouble with routine plays and could end up in center field.
They then took the biggest wild card in the draft, in my view, Georgia prep outfielder Michael Gettys (Round 2), a center fielder with an 80 arm, a 70 runner with power and maybe a 30 hit tool. If the Padres can find him a consistent, shorter swing, he could become a star, but I'd put the odds on that at 10 percent or less.
Zech Lemond (Round 3) was a great value on day two, suffering from the well-deserved reputation that the Rice baseball program has for wearing out pitchers; Lemond missed a little time with an elbow injury but an MRI was clean and he came back healthy right before the draft. Lemond projects as a starter, 92-95 with a plus curveball, needing to improve his changeup and build up more innings -- safely, not the Rice way, which involved having him start the year in the pen and immediately throwing 110-plus pitches as a starter with no transition.
Cal Poly's Nick Torres (Round 4) is an aggressive hitter (i.e., he doesn't walk) with a solid right-handed swing and plus-plus raw power, profiling as a right fielder in pro ball but of course needing to work on his patience. Ryan Butler (Round 7) was 91-95, touching 97, in his first year after transferring to UNC-Charlotte, and should go directly into a pro bullpen as he doesn't have an average breaking ball. Shortstop Nick Vilter (Round 9) out of UC-Riverside was a value play; Vilter poked 10 homers in 160 at-bats this spring but missed the end of the season after breaking his hand when he was hit by a pitch. He might stay at shortstop as a fringe-average defender there, but should profile at second or third if he has to move. The Padres took promising Florida prep right Cobi Johnson (Round 35) late, but will probably see him go to Florida State this fall.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants may have landed a top-five talent in Vanderbilt right-hander Tyler Beede (Round 1), who can sit 92-95 with a plus-plus changeup and average breaking ball but whose command and makeup posed serious enough questions for him to slip into the teens. Beede's arm works well and when he maintains his composure he's very tough for hitters to face because he can change speeds so effectively and can cut or fade his changeup to give batters different looks. He has some maturing to do in pro ball but the upside of a No. 2 starter.
FIU catcher Aramis Garcia (2) was a slight reach on day one, getting a boost from the lack of catching in this draft; he's got a very clean, short stroke, not likely to hit for power given his minimal load but likely to make a ton of contact in pro ball as he did in school. He's an adequate defender, good enough to stay there but needing some work on the finer points of the position. Dylan Davis (Round 3) was the "other" Oregon State outfielder in this draft, playing right field over Michael Conforto because he has a plus arm; Davis has nearly as much power as Conforto but doesn't have the latter's patience or pitch recognition and had just the seventh-best OBP on the Beavers' roster this year.
Logan Webb (Round 4) was a pop-up guy this spring, suddenly hitting mid-90s with an easy delivery and an above-average breaking ball, and might have gone day one if he had had any track record of doing this. He's a two-sport guy, also playing quarterback for Rocklin HS, and won't turn 18 until November. Sam ****rod (Round 5) has a huge fastball with poor command and a fringy slider, but the Giants have taken a lot of guys like this in the middle round and tried them in the bullpen in pro ball, which is ****rod's ultimate role.
I think Stanford's Austin Slater (Round can really hit, and he's a better athlete than people give him credit for; if a pro coach can get him to stop his elbows from leaking forward I like his chances to hit for average with 15-20 homer power, if not more. Siena lefty Matt Gage (Round 10) can command his fastball when he's on, needing to command his off-speed stuff better. They took a late flier on right-hander Jordan Johnson (Round 23) from Cal State-Northridge, 90-94 with a rough one-piece arm action but who might be in the mid- to upper-90s in relief with good command of the fastball.
Washington Nationals
The Nats grabbed UNLV starter Erick Fedde (Round 1) at pick 18, taking advantage of his recent Tommy John surgery to land a player who was once a near-lock to go in the top 10, possibly as high as the top four. Fedde has hit 96 but sits more 90-93 with an above-average slider and athletic delivery; he's on the slight side and needs to get some more weight on him to increase his durability.
Miami's Andrew Suarez (Round 2) has huge medical concerns, with labrum surgery wiping out his freshman year. He doesn't have an above-average pitch as a starter, although he's hit 95 working on seven days' rest this year. Jakson Reetz (Round 3) can afford to buy a "c" now; he's an offensive catcher with a plus arm and good hands, which sounds kind of like a potential All-Star to me, so I was surprised he made it through day one unselected.
The Nats also took a slew of college seniors who are likely relievers, including JC right-hander Robbie Dickey (Round 4) and big Texas State right-hander Austen Williams (Round 6). Nevada first baseman Austin Byler (Round 9) has a good swing with power that may have been underrated because he plays his home games at altitude in Reno; he played third last year and wasn't awful, but he needed a lot of help with his footwork. If the Nats rack up some savings from the five seniors they took in the top 10 rounds, they might sign one of the pricey prep players they took after round 30, such as power-hitting catcher Evan Skoug (Round 34), who's committed to TCU and probably moves out from behind the plate in pro ball.
Note: We often use the 20-80 scouting scale when discussing prospects.
Arizona Diamondbacks
I liked the D-backs' draft from the get-go. At 16, they took high-upside right-hander Touki Toussaint (Round 1), an athletic, loose-armed prep pitcher who will show a plus fastball and curveball, but this spring showed better command and a new changeup. Cody Reed (Round 2) could be a steal if the Snakes can keep his weight down. Reed sits 92-94, holding it deep into games, and will show an above-average breaking ball, but he's approached three bills and has a high flameout risk if he doesn't buy into a pro conditioning program.
Marcus Wilson (Round 2A) is a huge upside play, a plus runner with very quick, loose wrists who projects to have above-average power when his frame fills out; he overstrides in the box and loads his hands very high and deep, so he can be late to adjust to changing speeds and limits some of his power by getting on his front side too early.
Isan Diaz (Round 2A) is at the opposite end of the high school hitter spectrum, an advanced hitter who's hit with wood bats all through high school, boasting a short, balanced swing for line-drive contact. He's a shortstop now but a near lock to slide to second base in pro ball. Evaluating prep players' hit tools, especially when they play weak competition in school, is very difficult, but I was impressed by Diaz' performances last summer in showcases like the Area Code Games and the Metropolitan Classic at Citi Field.
Matt Railey (Round 3) has very quick wrists and might have above-average power if he can cut his stride and keep his front side firm; he's an average runner but might have the instincts to remain in center, which he'll probably have to do to profile as a regular or better. Cornell righty Brent Jones (Round 4) can run it up to 96 but without command; he profiles as a two-pitch reliever with a curveball as his out pitch. Mason McCullough (5) was kicked off the Tar Heels last year, transferred to Division II Lander, and then walked a man per inning facing far worse competition than he had at Chapel Hill. He can hit 100 mph, sits 94-96, has to be a one-inning reliever at this point, and might be this draft's Jason Neighborgall.
Middle Tennessee State's Zac Curtis (Round 6) led all of Division I in strikeouts this year, with two more than LSU's Aaron Nola, but profiles as a tough left-on-left reliever in pro ball. Junior college left fielder Grant Heyman (Round
has huge raw power from the left side but not much else so far. Vanderbilt's Jared Miller (Round 11) has a chance to be a lefty reliever in pro ball, lacking the command to start. Kevin Cron (Round 14) has never shown the power at TCU that he showed back in high school, and he might want to go back for his senior year; he's the younger brother of the Angels' C.J. Cron. The D-backs also took three likely unsignable high school players in J.B. Bukauskus (Round 20), Willie Rios (Round 26), and Cam Bishop (Round 32), with Bukauskus telling scouts this spring he'd prefer to matriculate at UNC than sign. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta landed one of the best pure swings in the draft despite its lack of a first-round pick. Braxton Davidson (Round 1A) is a left-handed hitting outfielder who might end up at first base, but he has both patience and power; with Freddie Freeman signed to a long-term deal, Atlanta will likely give Davidson, who has a plus arm but is a 30-grade runner, every chance to stick in an outfield corner.
Texas prep righty Garrett Fulenchek (Round 2) has good sink on his average fastball, but a max-effort delivery with some head violence may push him to the pen if Atlanta can't clean him up. UNC-Greensboro right-hander Max Povse (Round 3) has good raw stuff, with a fastball at 92-97 and above-average slider, but needs to get better plane on his fastball from his 6-foot-8 frame. Atlanta might have stolen another day-one talent with South Carolina-Upstate Chad Sobotka (Round 4), who missed all of 2014 with a stress fracture in his back (I blame The Greek). Sobotka gets on top of his above-average fastball very well with a tight downward-breaking slider, but tends to fly open at release and will need to tighten that up to remain a starter -- a role where he could be a solid ground ball guy who misses bats with the slider as well.
Miami's Chris Diaz (Round 5) is a sinker/changeup lefty who gets a ton of ground balls but doesn't have the control to be a starter right now. Florida Southern's Keith Curcio (Round 6) was the Northwoods League's co-MVP last summer and whose primary skills are his plate discipline and speed, so the hope is that he has enough pop with wood to profile as a leadoff guy who plays center field. Reliever Brad Roney (Round
was an interesting flier -- a two-way player who has a live arm but limited pitching experience, sitting low-90s with good two-seam tail on the pitch. Jordan Edgerton (Round 9) was one of the toughest hitters in Division II to strike out this year at UNC-Pembroke; he bars his lead arm but has some bat speed and good hip rotation for at least doubles power in pro ball. Overall it was among the strongest Atlanta draft classes in a while, with more polished selections but plenty of upside plays in the mix, although there were some other arms on the board in the second round I preferred to Fulenchek because of his delivery. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs reached significantly for Kyle Schwarber (Round 1), the fourth overall pick in the draft, a bat-first catcher who has maybe a 10 percent chance to stay behind the plate, and a higher chance to end up having to DH in pro ball, which might pose a problem for the Cubs unless they know something we don't about MLB rules. Schwarber does have huge raw power and a very good eye at the plate; his swing is really rotational with good leverage from his legs, but he sets up with a wide base and rolls over his front foot, which can pull him offline and hurt him against left-handed breaking stuff. I had him as more of a back-of-the-first-round talent.
The Cubs also took the draft's best college senior, Maryland starter Jake Stinnett (Round 2), who's been up to 97 from a low three-quarters arm slot and has a good slider when he doesn't get on the side of it; he has a starter's arsenal but the delivery might be more suited to relief, with a big plunge in back and trouble staying on top of the ball.
The Cubs also reached for Mark Zagunis (Round 3), a likely backup catcher who lacks power or patience but does put the ball in play a lot with a short swing after a no-load setup. After that, however, the Cubs went for pitching upside, taking three straight highly-rated high school arms as well as a handful quality college starters who were still available after the sixth round. Dylan Cease (Round 6) has the highest upside of all, hitting 98 earlier this spring with a cleaner delivery and curveball that flashed plus, but an elbow injury, reportedly a partial ligament tear for which Cease received PRP treatment rather than surgery, put him on the shelf from mid-March on. He was a top-15 pick if he'd stayed healthy and I imagine he'll expect a seven-figure bonus to buy him away from Vanderbilt.
Lefty Carson Sands (4) has three average pitches (fastball, curve, change) already with a chance to get the fastball up to a grade-60 pitch with some projection; his arm swing is a little long in back and he pronates slightly late but he stays on top of the ball well and gets some plane and tail on the fastball. Justin Steele (Round 5) is a power lefty from Mississippi whose fastball is 92-94 and he has a curveball with good shape and two-plane action. All three should have been top-three rounds selections.
Adding to that stable are the college arms I mentioned, led by St. Louis right-hander James Norwood (Round 7), who's been up to 97 but needs a viable breaking ball to go with it; and Fresno State right-hander Jordan Brink (Round 11), a former two-way player whose fastball ticked up when he started pitching full-time. Both guys are likely relievers but have sufficient chances to start that they should begin their pro careers in that role. Overall it's a good group of arms to infuse into a system that needs them, even if I didn't love the selections they made of the two college bats up top.
Cincinnati Reds
I thought the Reds reached for their first pick, Virginia reliever Nick Howard (Round 1), who has two plus pitches in a relief role but just an average fastball without life or downhill plane when starting. However, I loved their sandwich-round selection, Stanford third baseman Alex Blandino, who was among the best pure hitters in the draft class, with a great swing and outstanding plate discipline that showed this spring and last summer in the Cape Cod League as well. He's more than capable of handling third base, but many scouts liked the idea of moving him to second in pro ball, which I think wastes the value of his 55-60 arm.
Taylor Sparks (Round 2) is an all-or-nothing selection, a third baseman with plus-plus raw power -- Irvine hit 12 homers the whole season, and Sparks had five of them, as well as eight of the team's 22 triples -- but who strikes out at an inordinate rate and needs to tighten up his plate discipline to get to his power with wood.
USC's Wyatt Strahan (No. 3) can hit the mid-90s with some sink -- he didn't give up a homer all spring, although his home park helped with that -- but profiles better as a bullpen arm right now given his command and control. Oklahoma prep hitter Gavin LaValley (Round 4) fits in one of the industry's least-favorite categories, the high school first baseman, and he's not an advanced hitter, but he is very strong with bat speed, so the ball comes off his bat very well. Tejay Antone (Round 5) has a lively low-90s fastball and a loose arm, but his arm action is really long and deliberate, giving hitters a good look at the ball and making it hard for him to repeat it. Jose Lopez (Round 6) was a potential third-rounder before blowing out his elbow this spring, and he could be ready to go for spring training 2015, making his selection in the sixth round a good value play.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies took one of the more divisive players in the class, Evansville lefty Kyle Freeland (Round 1), with the eighth overall pick. If you like Freeland, you see Chris Sale Lite, a lefty with a low arm slot and a lot of deception who racks up a ton of strikeouts with his slider. If you don't, you see a power reliever who overuses the slider but still throws strikes and probably sits in the mid-90s in a one-inning role. I imagine the Rockies will give him every chance to start, given where they selected him.
Forrest Wall (Round 1A) was among the best pure bats in the high school class and is a plus runner, but his throwing shoulder never came back after 2011 labrum surgery, limiting him to second base, and he hurt his other shoulder in March. Arizona prep righty Ryan Castellani (Round 2) has a slender frame but a chance for three average pitches with good feel; if he has more room to put on weight than most scouts think, he could end up with an above-average or better fastball.
Sam Howard (Round 3) of Georgia Southern probably projects best in the pen, given his slight build and fringy off-speed pitches. Wes Rogers (Round 4) of Spartanburg Methodist College, a second-year JC player, is a true center fielder and good athlete overall who can run and take a pitch, with some length to his swing that may cause trouble when he reaches the higher levels of the minors. California prep third baseman Kevin Padlo (Round 5) is strong with present power despite barring his lead arm, and has the arm for third base; his swing and noisy lower half give him some trouble making consistent contact.
Redshirt sophomore Andrew Rohrbach (Round 9) was an interesting flier, a converted shortstop who threw four innings at College of the Canyons but became the Friday night starter for Long Beach State this year, throwing strikes and touching the mid-90s. He's a good candidate for a surprise spike in stuff when he gets to pro ball if he can avoid Tommy John surgery, the curse of so many position players who move to the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Grant Holmes (Round 1) was one of my favorite prep pitchers in the class, a command guy who reached 98 earlier this spring but will probably sit 92-93 every fifth day, with an above-average curveball as well. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, needing primarily to develop a third pitch but already showing the feel for pitching of a college guy. He was a top-15 talent and still available for L.A. at pick 22.
Alex Verdugo (Round 2) is a two-way player from Tucson who'll go out as a center fielder first, with the mound a backup option; he fell more than anything else due to makeup concerns, as he's a talented athlete who has a chance for a plus curveball and solid-average fastball on the mound, while he has a sound swing with an all-fields approach and should be a plus defender in right given time. At 6-foot, 200 pounds, he doesn't have physical projection left, but does have a lot of room for the development of other parts of his game, as long as he can stay on the field.
UNLV's John Richy (Round 3) was a surprise in the third round, 90-92 with good bore and an above-average changeup, but an upright finish and some head violence at release make him a reliever in the long run. Washington's Jeff Brigham (Round 4) will hit 95 regularly but isn't a strikeout guy, getting a 71 percent ground ball rate primarily with his fastball, as his off-speed stuff is fringy; he might have a Jake Westbrook ceiling if he can stay in the rotation.
Jared Walker (Round 5) has size and power but may end up in right field, and scouts questioned his makeup as well. California Baptist right-hander Trevor Oaks (Round 7) finished eighth in Division II in strikeouts, although he doesn't have an above-average pitch, changing speeds well with four average or fringe-average offerings. Stanford's A.J. Vanegas (Round 11) finally stayed healthy, more or less, and flashed mid-90s velocity, but his history of back problems pushed him out of the top 10 rounds. As a senior he needs to just sign and get out and pitch, since the $2 million-plus he turned down out of high school isn't coming back.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins landed the draft's hardest-throwing starter in Texas prep right-hander Tyler Kolek (Round 1), an enormous kid at 6-foot-6, 270-plus, who has hit 101 mph and can flash a plus slider; he needs work on all the finer points of pitching, from commanding the fastball to throwing the slider for strikes to developing any sort of changeup. It's a bet on tremendous raw material, the kind of bet that worked for them three years ago with Jose Fernandez, who was also a stuff-over-polish high school kid when drafted.
Blake Anderson (Round 1A) was the surprise pick of day one for me, not a top-five round prospect, a defense-first catcher with some pop but a below-average bat, and the history of Mississippi prep hitters in the draft is ugly. Justin Twine (Round 2) was a late riser this spring, a top high school quarterback who was committed to TCU for baseball, and probably moves off shortstop to second base in pro ball. He bars his lead arm a little but once he gets his hands started he's quick and direct to the ball, with line-drive power as well as above-average speed on the bases. He's a classic Marlins pick -- a two-sport guy with athleticism and significant offensive upside.
Arkansas second baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson (Round 3) is more of a utility guy than a starter, lacking a clear position in the infield but without the hit tool to profile at an outfield corner. Casey Soltis (Round 5) might be an outfield tweener, lacking the power for a corner but a little short defensively in center, although I think shortening his overly wide stance at the plate and allowing him to drive the ball better by transferring his weight will give him a chance to become an everyday right fielder.
Stone Garrett (Round
might be a tough sign as a Rice commit and I don't think his bat is advanced enough for him to profile as an everyday player in left field. The Marlins took two familiar names to finish day two, Oregon State senior Ben Wetzler (Round 9) and Texas junior Dillon Peters (Round 10), both solid college lefties. Wetzler was the player suspended by the NCAA after the Phillies reported him for using the services of an agent when they drafted him last summer; he had a great senior year, with a 0.78 ERA, doing it more with feel and command as his stuff is fifth starter material. Peters is an undersized southpaw but has a curveball that should be very effective against lefties in pro ball. Oklahoma prep righty Nick White (Round 11) comes straight over the top in his delivery, creating some head violence and putting pressure on the shoulder, but he reaches 94 with downhill plane and has good depth on a 12-to-6 curveball.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers needed a good draft to boost the majors' worst farm system, but it fell a little short for me, adding some upside, but zero probability. They rolled the dice on their first three picks, reaching for Hawaiian high school Kodi Medeiros (Round 1) with the 12th overall pick, a low-slot lefty with a plus slider and fastball up to 95 mph but with a reliever's build and delivery. I expect him to destroy hitters in the low minors, however, as they'll have a hard time picking up the ball from his arm slot.
Jacob Gatewood (Round 1A) was a solid second selection as a feast-or-famine pick, although I think it makes more sense to take a guy like Gatewood if you have a higher-probability pick already in the bank. Gatewood has 70-grade raw power but a well below-average hit tool, trying to pull everything rather than using the whole field and going for contact rather than big flies. He'll have to move off shortstop, probably to right field but with a chance for third base; if he changes his approach at the plate, and hits enough to get to that power in games, he'll profile at whatever position he plays.
Monte Harrison (Round 2) is also a low-floor, high-ceiling guy, a two-sport athlete committed to Nebraska for baseball and football who can run, throw, and hit for power, but struggled mightily against breaking stuff this spring and may be a two-year rookie ball guy. Cy Sneed (Round 3) was a reach in the third round, a mediocre starter for Dallas Baptist who lacks a plus pitch and doesn't have the command to get by without one.
Baltimore high schooler Troy Stokes (Round 4) is an undersized center fielder with a quick bat and above-average speed, although it would play better if he hit left-handed; he's expected to sign an under-slot deal. After that they took a number of college seniors and erratic Villanova reliever J.B. Kole (Round
, all likely to save money to sign their first three picks. J.J. Schwarz (Round 17) will likely be a tough sign away from the University of Florida but was a second/third round talent as an offensive catcher, but if any of the big three fail to sign, the Brewers might turn to Schwarz as a solid fallback option. New York Mets
The Mets nabbed the highest-floor hitter in the draft and one of its best pure bats in Michael Conforto (Round 1) of Oregon State, who was fifth in Division I with a .504 OBP this year. Conforto has an outstanding eye at the plate, of course, but his main tool is his ability to hit, with a simple, easy, yet powerful swing that generates hard line-drive contact as well as home run power. He's probably limited to left field but should be able to work himself up to average defensively.
The Mets lost their second-round pick for signing Curtis Granderson and took defensive wizard Milton Ramos (Round 3) with their second pick; he's a plus-plus defender and a plus runner but a minus bat right now, with a low load and weak hands that will have to improve for him to profile as a regular.
Eudor Garcia-Pacheco (Round 4) is a third baseman out of El Paso Community College who just turned 20 a few weeks ago; he'll move to first in pro ball but has very quick, strong hands, and power from the left side. Righty Josh Prevost (Round 5) had just 73 innings pitched in total over his first three years at Seton Hall, but threw 116 this year and walked only 20 men, sitting 91-94 with some downhill plane (you'd hope so, since he's 6-foot-
and an above-average slider in the 79-83 mph range. Tyler Moore (Round 6) of LSU is a solid college catcher but probably a backup in the majors. Dash Winningham (Round can't run, which is just a shame. Their late flier was on Iowa righty Keaton McKinney (Round 2
, a strong commit to Arkansas but well worth a seven-figure bonus if the Mets have room for it, and they should have some extra coin left over given the signable guys they took after round three. Philadelphia Phillies
It was an atypical draft for the Phillies, who usually go for upside and focus on high school players, but they went for probability this year and took college players with their first seven picks. Aaron Nola (Round 1) was the highest-floor college arm in the draft, boasting 70-grade command of a 91-93 mph fastball with two legitimate secondary pitches, only raising concerns because of a funky delivery and low three-quarters slot that reminds scouts of Chris Sale's arm action.
Cal Poly lefty Matt Imhof (Round 2) is also a high-floor, low-ceiling guy, missing a lot of bats in college with his slider and changeup but likely to have just an average fastball when he's going every fifth day. Two-way player Aaron Brown (Round 3) out of Pepperdine will apparently go out as a center fielder, where he has a plus arm and some power as a left-handed hitter, but his 52-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio this year is a little tough to take and I'd bet on him ending up on the mound eventually.
Arkansas' Chris Oliver (Round 4) could move very quickly as a pen guy, hitting 96 as a starter with a hard slurve, but he's still pretty slight and doesn't have an effective third pitch yet. Rhys Hoskins (Round 5) of Sacramento State is limited to first base but has an intriguing power/patience skill set, with good loft in his finish. Sam McWilliams (Round
was their only high school pick in the top 28 rounds, which is a complete 180 from their typical draft pattern; he's a projectable 6-foot-7 right-hander from Tennessee with a rough arm action and no present breaking ball but has touched 94 and will probably find more than that as he fills out. Austin Davis (Round 12) was a potential top three rounds pick earlier in the spring when he was hitting 95 for Cal State Bakersfield, but he couldn't hold his velocity and might go back for another year to try to get into the top five rounds.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates reached a little for Cole Tucker (Round 1), a prep shortstop from Tempe, Arizona, but I heard after day one that at least two other teams were on him in the next 15 picks, so the industry seemed to support his selection there. He's a switch-hitter with doubles power and above-average running speed, possibly staying at short but a little more likely to slide to second base, where his bat will still profile. Scouts adore his makeup and he was one of the best players at this year's NHSI event at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, North Carolina.
San Diego's Connor Joe (Round 1A) was a big overdraft, however, a college catcher who can't handle the position; he can hit and has above-average to plus power, but he has to find a position. The Bucs then took two outstanding prep arms, Mitch Keller (Round 2) from Iowa and Trey Supak (Round 2A) from Texas. Keller spiked to 90-94 this spring, doing it fairly easily from a 3/4 slot as his arm continues to speed up, and his two-plane curveball projects as plus if that happens. Supak has an outstanding delivery and great projection; he's got average stuff right now but everything works and he's going to fill out his 6-foot-5 frame. In a year when everyone's obsessing over pitcher injuries and deliveries, Supak should have gone higher.
They started day two with a pair of solid college bats, Fresno State rightfielder Jordan Luplow (Round 3) and Florida catcher Taylor Gushue (Round 4). Luplow is a disciplined hitter with above-average power, although he loads his hands low and locks his elbow slightly, something that works for a handful of big league hitters (Hunter Pence) but is more often an obstacle to making contact. Gushue looked at times like a day-one talent but never had the offensive consistency to get there; he's a switch-hitting catcher with some pop and an above-average arm, and won't turn 21 until December. He's got a chance to become an everyday backstop, which is an extremely valuable asset. Nelson Jorge (Round 7) is a flier on a good athlete with limited present baseball skills, one of the better prospects in a very weak draft year in Puerto Rico.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed to build their draft around signing one player, Jack Flaherty (Round 1A), their second pick, a tough-sign high school right-hander with great present command of average stuff but some upside due to his frame and athleticism. Primarily a third baseman with major questions on the bat, Flaherty was frequently 89-93 but it's easy and fluid.
The Cards took FSU starter Luke Weaver (Round 1), a potential first-rounder coming into the year who showed reduced stuff, a 90-94 mph flat fastball, above-average changeup, and 40-grade slider; he's a competitor but the stuff is too hittable and the lack of fastball life makes him homer-prone.
Ronnie Williams (Round 2) is a a 6-foot prep righty from Florida who's mostly 90-92 and already seems to be getting the most from his lower half, with fringy off-speed stuff. Andrew Morales (Round 2A) was a possible money-saver, a senior out of UC-Irvine who can really pitch, mostly 88-93 with some arm-side run, a curveball and changeup, but effort to his delivery with some head violence that makes his above-average control a little surprising.
Loyola Marymount's Trevor Megill (Round 3) missed the year after Tommy John surgery -- I was at the start where he got hurt, allegedly leaving because he had the flu (in his elbow, apparently) -- but was a potential day-one pick had he been healthy, sitting low 90s with a 6-foot-8, 235-pound frame. He'll probably demand an over-slot bonus because he could return to Loyola Marymount as a redshirt junior next year.
Florida Atlantic lefty Austin Gomber (Round 4) rarely walks anyone, with just 15 free passes issued out of 303 batters faced, despite a goofy delivery with a big torso-turn that doesn't generate much torque from his hips. He has three average or fringe-average pitches, mostly 88-92 on the fastball, but is slightly young for his class, which the Cardinals value extremely highly. I know some teams loved Flaherty for his command, but I don't think he's a first-round talent or a $2 million-plus guy, and after he and Megill, there isn't a lot of upside in this crop.
San Diego Padres
The Padres were over the moon to get NC State shortstop Trea Turner (Round 1) with the 13th selection, a possible top-10 pick coming into the year who struggled in the first half of the season but had a strong final push, trying to shorten up his swing and make more consistent, harder contact, even hitting for some unexpected power. He's a 70-grade runner who likely stays at short but has trouble with routine plays and could end up in center field.
They then took the biggest wild card in the draft, in my view, Georgia prep outfielder Michael Gettys (Round 2), a center fielder with an 80 arm, a 70 runner with power and maybe a 30 hit tool. If the Padres can find him a consistent, shorter swing, he could become a star, but I'd put the odds on that at 10 percent or less.
Zech Lemond (Round 3) was a great value on day two, suffering from the well-deserved reputation that the Rice baseball program has for wearing out pitchers; Lemond missed a little time with an elbow injury but an MRI was clean and he came back healthy right before the draft. Lemond projects as a starter, 92-95 with a plus curveball, needing to improve his changeup and build up more innings -- safely, not the Rice way, which involved having him start the year in the pen and immediately throwing 110-plus pitches as a starter with no transition.
Cal Poly's Nick Torres (Round 4) is an aggressive hitter (i.e., he doesn't walk) with a solid right-handed swing and plus-plus raw power, profiling as a right fielder in pro ball but of course needing to work on his patience. Ryan Butler (Round 7) was 91-95, touching 97, in his first year after transferring to UNC-Charlotte, and should go directly into a pro bullpen as he doesn't have an average breaking ball. Shortstop Nick Vilter (Round 9) out of UC-Riverside was a value play; Vilter poked 10 homers in 160 at-bats this spring but missed the end of the season after breaking his hand when he was hit by a pitch. He might stay at shortstop as a fringe-average defender there, but should profile at second or third if he has to move. The Padres took promising Florida prep right Cobi Johnson (Round 35) late, but will probably see him go to Florida State this fall.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants may have landed a top-five talent in Vanderbilt right-hander Tyler Beede (Round 1), who can sit 92-95 with a plus-plus changeup and average breaking ball but whose command and makeup posed serious enough questions for him to slip into the teens. Beede's arm works well and when he maintains his composure he's very tough for hitters to face because he can change speeds so effectively and can cut or fade his changeup to give batters different looks. He has some maturing to do in pro ball but the upside of a No. 2 starter.
FIU catcher Aramis Garcia (2) was a slight reach on day one, getting a boost from the lack of catching in this draft; he's got a very clean, short stroke, not likely to hit for power given his minimal load but likely to make a ton of contact in pro ball as he did in school. He's an adequate defender, good enough to stay there but needing some work on the finer points of the position. Dylan Davis (Round 3) was the "other" Oregon State outfielder in this draft, playing right field over Michael Conforto because he has a plus arm; Davis has nearly as much power as Conforto but doesn't have the latter's patience or pitch recognition and had just the seventh-best OBP on the Beavers' roster this year.
Logan Webb (Round 4) was a pop-up guy this spring, suddenly hitting mid-90s with an easy delivery and an above-average breaking ball, and might have gone day one if he had had any track record of doing this. He's a two-sport guy, also playing quarterback for Rocklin HS, and won't turn 18 until November. Sam ****rod (Round 5) has a huge fastball with poor command and a fringy slider, but the Giants have taken a lot of guys like this in the middle round and tried them in the bullpen in pro ball, which is ****rod's ultimate role.
I think Stanford's Austin Slater (Round
can really hit, and he's a better athlete than people give him credit for; if a pro coach can get him to stop his elbows from leaking forward I like his chances to hit for average with 15-20 homer power, if not more. Siena lefty Matt Gage (Round 10) can command his fastball when he's on, needing to command his off-speed stuff better. They took a late flier on right-hander Jordan Johnson (Round 23) from Cal State-Northridge, 90-94 with a rough one-piece arm action but who might be in the mid- to upper-90s in relief with good command of the fastball. Washington Nationals
The Nats grabbed UNLV starter Erick Fedde (Round 1) at pick 18, taking advantage of his recent Tommy John surgery to land a player who was once a near-lock to go in the top 10, possibly as high as the top four. Fedde has hit 96 but sits more 90-93 with an above-average slider and athletic delivery; he's on the slight side and needs to get some more weight on him to increase his durability.
Miami's Andrew Suarez (Round 2) has huge medical concerns, with labrum surgery wiping out his freshman year. He doesn't have an above-average pitch as a starter, although he's hit 95 working on seven days' rest this year. Jakson Reetz (Round 3) can afford to buy a "c" now; he's an offensive catcher with a plus arm and good hands, which sounds kind of like a potential All-Star to me, so I was surprised he made it through day one unselected.
The Nats also took a slew of college seniors who are likely relievers, including JC right-hander Robbie Dickey (Round 4) and big Texas State right-hander Austen Williams (Round 6). Nevada first baseman Austin Byler (Round 9) has a good swing with power that may have been underrated because he plays his home games at altitude in Reno; he played third last year and wasn't awful, but he needed a lot of help with his footwork. If the Nats rack up some savings from the five seniors they took in the top 10 rounds, they might sign one of the pricey prep players they took after round 30, such as power-hitting catcher Evan Skoug (Round 34), who's committed to TCU and probably moves out from behind the plate in pro ball.
Lackey's unique contract situation.
Let’s be 100 percent clear about this: To date, the only noise about John Lackey’s very unusual contract situation is coming from the media, including me. I’ve never spoken to Lackey about this, and as far as I can tell, the pitcher hasn’t really expressed his views on a matter that isn’t close to being a front-burner issue. For all I know, he might view it as a nonissue.
But it’s a really interesting set of circumstances that will be resolved in the months ahead. Lackey’s $82.5 million deal with the Red Sox calls for him to make $500,000 next season, at a time when the 35-year-old right-hander is throwing as well as he has in any season in his career: a 3.18 ERA in 13 starts. He made the All-Star team in 2007, and he’s got a shot again in 2014.
Here’s the background on his deal with the Red Sox. In the fall of 2009, the team was coming off a season in which it had been eliminated in the first round of the postseason, and as Jason Bay walked away, Boston’s ownership was being criticized for its lack of aggressiveness. The class of free agents was generally weak, but the Red Sox targeted Lackey, the Angels’ ace, and agreed to the framework of a five-year, $82.5 million deal.
There was one problem, however. Lackey’s physical examination revealed that his elbow ligament was in tatters, and it appeared that he was destined to lose a year to Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox proposed a solution, asking that Lackey and agent Steve Hilliard build a mulligan into the deal: If Lackey missed a season, he would pitch a season for $500,000 at the back end of the contract.
This way, Lackey would get his guaranteed $82.5 million, and the Red Sox would have some protection.
In the summer of 2011, Lackey’s elbow finally gave out, and he missed the 2012 season, as anticipated.
Now Lackey is rolling, and his fastball velocity is as good as ever (averaging 91.9 mph). “He’s throwing with easy velocity,” said one rival evaluator. “He doesn’t need a lot of effort in his delivery.”
He is in excellent condition, as manager John Farrell noted last weekend, perhaps the best of his career, and if Lackey were a free agent in the fall, he might command a deal for something in the range of $45 million over three years.
But as it stands, Lackey is set to make $500,000 next season.
Back in April, ESPN had a Wednesday night broadcast in Boston, and colleagues Rick Sutcliffe, Aaron Boone and others wondered how a player who has had that much success, with that much experience, could pitch an entire season for the minimum. Something would change, Aaron said.
He may well be right.
But it doesn’t have to change, if Boston doesn’t want it to; the Red Sox are on rock-solid contractual ground. In spite of some speculation that Lackey could pitch in Japan next season, the working agreement between MLB and the Japan League would make that impossible. Players cannot simply walk out of their contractual obligations to go play in Japan, or leave Japan to play in Major League Baseball.
If a player in Lackey’s situation decided he would rather retire than pitch for the minimum, the Red Sox could simply place the player on a restricted list -- and the last year of the deal would remain in place in the event that the player changed his mind. So it’s not as if Lackey has the option of walking away from baseball until his contract runs out. He owes the Red Sox one year at $500,000.
And you know what? That’s completely fair. Everyone involved in the negotiations made the agreement with eyes wide open, understanding exactly why the $500,000 option was put in place -- to create an avenue for Lackey to be assured of his $82.5 million, and to protect the Red Sox against an elbow injury that all sides acknowledged was inevitable. Boston paid Lackey $15.25 million in 2012, the year Lackey missed, and it’s not as if the Red Sox ever thought about asking out of the deal when Lackey got injured. Boston has honored its end of the contract, fully.
There is a way for this to come out well for all sides, of course. The Red Sox could work out an extension for Lackey that covers a season or two or three, and maybe the $500,000 season of 2015 would get folded into that. With Jon Lester’s situation uncertain, it makes sense for Boston to explore it, given that Lester and Lackey are the anchors of the Red Sox rotation.
To repeat: Only in the media is Lackey’s deal an issue, because of how unique it is, at a time when salaries have never been higher.
Around the league
• On Wednesday’s podcast, Kurt Suzuki told of coming across a shark in the waters off Maui, and Tim Kurkjian and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review discussed the first days of Gregory Polanco.
• The signing of Suzuki has been crucial for the Twins, writes Sid Hartman.
• Yoenis Cespedes did it again, making another incredible throw, and Oakland avoided being swept by the Angels.
Jason Hammel
Mike McGinnis/Getty Images
Jason Hammel has allowed just 16 walks and five homers in 78 1/3 innings this season.
• Executives who have had contact with the Cubs sense that trade talks involving their available pitching -- Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija -- are beginning to gain traction. Chicago may well follow the same strategy that it did last year, when it moved a secondary piece -- right-hander Scott Feldman -- to help open the market for a primary target, Matt Garza.
More teams seem interested in Hammel because they expect the price tag will be lower, given that Hammel is eligible for free agency in the fall. Hammel has allowed just 16 walks and five homers in 78 1/3 innings, with a 2.53 ERA, and he could theoretically be a fit for teams needing short-term rotation help like the Blue Jays, Pirates, A’s, Orioles and Marlins. Hammel struggled Wednesday.
Samardzija will be under team control through 2015, and he is viewed as the most attractive starting pitcher in the market, so far.
• The Mariners have been asking around about available power hitting, as well as starting pitching.
• The Diamondbacks lost to Houston on Wednesday night, but Arizona has won eight of its last 12 series, and split one of the other four. Since April 29, the D-Backs are 21-17 and are within 6.5 games of the second NL wild-card spot -- not exactly close, but hardly out of contention with about 3½ months to play. So the Diamondbacks intend to wait until early July, at least, before deciding whether to sell off players. Mark Trumbo has started taking batting practice and is due to rejoin Arizona from the disabled list soon.
• If the Diamondbacks ever decide to move payroll, scouts with other teams have expressed interest in outfielder Gerardo Parra, who is making $4.85 million this year but is arbitration-eligible for 2015 and could be a free agent after next season.
• Trevor Cahill is likely to accept his assignment to the minors and prepare for an eventual return to the starting rotation, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Adam Wainwright has an unspecified elbow issue.
• The Nationals have shut down the Giants this week in the first three games of a series in San Francisco. On Wednesday, Matt Cain struggled to throw strikes, as Henry Schulman writes.
• For now, the Giants will leave a top infield prospect in the minors.
• Tanner Roark dominated. Ryan Zimmerman made a couple of good plays: here’s No. 1, and here’s No. 2.
• Masahiro Tanaka continues to justify the Yankees’ investment in him: He shut down the Mariners. New York is 11-2 in his starts.
• Hanley Ramirez has a shoulder issue. He is eligible for free agency in the fall, and this is not going well for him so far. From Dylan Hernandez’s story:
He has not been on the disabled list this season, but he did not make one start because of a bruised thumb and three more because of a sore calf. Those injuries were not considered major, and neither is this one, but the cumulative effect could be hard for the Dodgers to escape.
"Everything happens for a reason," Ramirez said. "We're playing well. Nothing negative right now."
Ramirez said he is not worried about what effect any injury might have on the likelihood of negotiating a new contract with the Dodgers.
"Contract," he scoffed, drawing out the syllables and rolling his eyes. "I don't care about that. I'm just focused on winning right now."
Mattingly said he does not feel any pressure in trying to balance the need of his team to field a healthy starting nine and the need of Ramirez to get in the lineup and produce.
"I don't worry about the other stuff," Mattingly said. "We're trying to win games, simple as that.
"You always want to protect the player. If they're banged up, we try and protect them. We don't want anybody to go out there at half-speed. I can't worry about contracts."
• Matt Kemp was ejected from Wednesday’s loss, as Bill Plunkett writes.
• As of this morning, four AL Central teams have 33 victories, and the other has 31. In other words: Gentlemen, start your engines.
• Justin Verlander lost again. Brad Ausmus sounded annoyed, as Tom Gage writes.
• The Royals completed a sweep, moving over .500. Mike Moustakas has been hitting better, writes Andy McCullough. The Indians had a sluggish loss.
• Johnny Cueto has been the best pitcher in the National League so far, and he dominated the Dodgers.
These are Cueto’s current major league rankings:
ERA, 1.85: 1st
WHIP, 0.77: 1st (Adam Wainwright is second, at 0.93)
Opponents’ average, .160: 1st
Opponents’ OPS, .479: 1st (Wainwright is second, .539)
Cueto has allowed a total of 26 runs in 14 starts this season, and a lot of those have come on home runs. But even with homers, he’s limited damage: Of the eight homers he’s surrendered, six have been solo shots, with two two-run homers.
When hitters have reached two strikes against him, they have had almost no success in digging themselves out.
When at-bats end on pitches with a 0-2 count: 4-for-29, 1 double, 15 strikeouts.
1-2 count: 7-for-65, two doubles, 37 strikeouts.
2-2 count: 3-for-60, 37 strikeouts.
3-2 counts: 8-for-44, 1 double, 2 homers, 13 walks, 20 strikeouts.
The totals: 22-for-198, 4 doubles, 2 homers, 13 walks, 109 strikeouts.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Cueto shut down the Dodgers
A. He allowed a season-low eight balls in play.
B. He threw 32 fastballs up in the zone for 18 strikes without allowing any to be put into play. Has now thrown 71 fastballs up in the zone over his last three starts and only two have been put into play (both were outs).
C. He tied a season-high with 12 strikeouts, five via changeup (also a season-high), and all five of those were swing-and-misses.
D. He had just 13 called strikes (second-fewest for him this season) thanks to a season-high 54.5 percent swing percentage.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Manny Machado is not expected to drop his appeal of his suspension, writes Roch Kubatko; rather, he hopes the suspension will be reduced to three or four games.
2. Kevin Pillar was returned to the minors.
3. Ben Cherington is owning the Stephen Drew deal.
4. The Red Sox signed Andres Torres.
5. The Cubs signed their No. 1 pick.
6. Andrew Heaney is about to join the Marlins.
7. The Rays signed their first-round pick.
Dings and dents
1. Francisco Liriano was placed on the disabled list. The Pirates are scrambling, writes Gene Collier.
2. Cliff Lee took a small step in the rehab process.
3. Carlos Gonzalez could be out five weeks, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Chad Billingsley has been shut down.
5. Michael Saunders was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
6. The Yankees activated Shawn Kelley.
7. Tanner Scheppers is headed to the disabled list.
Wednesday’s games
1. The Jays’ offense continues to be flat.
2. Tyler Matzek boosted the Rockies for a night.
3. Reid Brignac walked it off.
4. Wei-Yin Chen won, shutting down the Red Sox.
5. Wily Peralta was back on track.
6. Julio Teheran had a rough start against the Rockies, and Atlanta fell out of first place.
7. Dallas Keuchel continues to mesmerize, as Jesus Ortiz writes.
8. The Rays ended their losing streak.
AL West
Yu Darvish
AP Photo/LM Otero
Texas starter Yu Darvish threw his first career complete game on Wednesday against Miami.
• Yu Darvish's short-term success could be a big-picture problem for Texas, writes Evan Grant.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Darvish dominated the Marlins:
A. He had his first career complete game and shutout in his 73rd start, after five previous career scoreless outings with at least eight innings pitched.
B. He allowed only one runner to reach second base (Christian Yelich led off the first inning with a walk and advanced to second on a wild pitch).
C. He threw 28.2 percent of his pitches inside, his second-highest inside rate of the season.
D. He mixed up his pitches; 46 percent of his pitches were fastballs, the first time in four games he was below 56 percent fastballs.
E. Seven of his 10 strikeouts (70 percent) came on a splitter or cutter, up from his season rate of 51 percent on those pitches.
F. He held the Marlins hitless in 12 at-bats with men on base. He had allowed a .206 BA with runners on base in his first 11 games.
• The Angels may have benefited from a bad road trip, writes Jim Peltz.
AL Central
• Phil Coke is shocked by rumors he wants out of Detroit.
• Catching runs in the family of one player drafted by the Tigers.
• The Indians’ play has taken pressure off Jason Kipnis.
• The Twins have dominated AL East teams, as La Velle Neal writes.
• Jose Abreu did it again, and the White Sox won.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Abreu hit his 19th home run in his 52nd career game. Since 1900, only Wally Berger hit more, 20, through his first 52 career games with the 1930 Boston Braves.
• Robin Ventura talked about how teams are pitching to Abreu.
AL East
• From the Elias Sports Bureau: Derek Jeter stole his 350th and 351st career bases to join Craig Biggio and Rickey Henderson as the only players in MLB history with 3,000 hits, 250 home runs and 350 steals. It was Jeter’s first multi-stolen base game since Sept. 25, 2009 (against the Red Sox) and the 22nd of his career.
NL West
• Tyson Ross had a strong start, but the Padres lost.
NL Central
• The Cardinals are stacking up shortstops in their organization.
• Here is a true sign of how fatigued Yadier Molina has been, from Bernie Miklasz.
• Bob Nutting is worried that the hype might be too much for Gregory Polanco.
• The Brewers are sticking with Scooter Gennett in the leadoff spot, writes Todd Rosiak.
• The Cubs' prospects aren’t going to be here anytime soon, writes Rick Morrissey.
NL East
• The Mets have reached the intersection of patience and expectation, writes Tyler Kepner.
• Terry Collins won’t be around for long, writes Joel Sherman.
• Evan Gattis’ defense has improved, as David O’Brien writes.
• The Marlins have refused to fold, writes Craig Davis.
Lastly
• Lew Wolff revealed his team’s lease details, as Mark Purdy writes.
• Tony Gwynn received his extension, writes Kirk Kenney.
• Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons wants umpires to be able to review whether batters allow themselves to be hit by pitches.
• Noah Trister writes about the upside and downside of headfirst slides.
• Vanderbilt is off to Omaha.
And today will be better than yesterday.
But it’s a really interesting set of circumstances that will be resolved in the months ahead. Lackey’s $82.5 million deal with the Red Sox calls for him to make $500,000 next season, at a time when the 35-year-old right-hander is throwing as well as he has in any season in his career: a 3.18 ERA in 13 starts. He made the All-Star team in 2007, and he’s got a shot again in 2014.
Here’s the background on his deal with the Red Sox. In the fall of 2009, the team was coming off a season in which it had been eliminated in the first round of the postseason, and as Jason Bay walked away, Boston’s ownership was being criticized for its lack of aggressiveness. The class of free agents was generally weak, but the Red Sox targeted Lackey, the Angels’ ace, and agreed to the framework of a five-year, $82.5 million deal.
There was one problem, however. Lackey’s physical examination revealed that his elbow ligament was in tatters, and it appeared that he was destined to lose a year to Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox proposed a solution, asking that Lackey and agent Steve Hilliard build a mulligan into the deal: If Lackey missed a season, he would pitch a season for $500,000 at the back end of the contract.
This way, Lackey would get his guaranteed $82.5 million, and the Red Sox would have some protection.
In the summer of 2011, Lackey’s elbow finally gave out, and he missed the 2012 season, as anticipated.
Now Lackey is rolling, and his fastball velocity is as good as ever (averaging 91.9 mph). “He’s throwing with easy velocity,” said one rival evaluator. “He doesn’t need a lot of effort in his delivery.”
He is in excellent condition, as manager John Farrell noted last weekend, perhaps the best of his career, and if Lackey were a free agent in the fall, he might command a deal for something in the range of $45 million over three years.
But as it stands, Lackey is set to make $500,000 next season.
Back in April, ESPN had a Wednesday night broadcast in Boston, and colleagues Rick Sutcliffe, Aaron Boone and others wondered how a player who has had that much success, with that much experience, could pitch an entire season for the minimum. Something would change, Aaron said.
He may well be right.
But it doesn’t have to change, if Boston doesn’t want it to; the Red Sox are on rock-solid contractual ground. In spite of some speculation that Lackey could pitch in Japan next season, the working agreement between MLB and the Japan League would make that impossible. Players cannot simply walk out of their contractual obligations to go play in Japan, or leave Japan to play in Major League Baseball.
If a player in Lackey’s situation decided he would rather retire than pitch for the minimum, the Red Sox could simply place the player on a restricted list -- and the last year of the deal would remain in place in the event that the player changed his mind. So it’s not as if Lackey has the option of walking away from baseball until his contract runs out. He owes the Red Sox one year at $500,000.
And you know what? That’s completely fair. Everyone involved in the negotiations made the agreement with eyes wide open, understanding exactly why the $500,000 option was put in place -- to create an avenue for Lackey to be assured of his $82.5 million, and to protect the Red Sox against an elbow injury that all sides acknowledged was inevitable. Boston paid Lackey $15.25 million in 2012, the year Lackey missed, and it’s not as if the Red Sox ever thought about asking out of the deal when Lackey got injured. Boston has honored its end of the contract, fully.
There is a way for this to come out well for all sides, of course. The Red Sox could work out an extension for Lackey that covers a season or two or three, and maybe the $500,000 season of 2015 would get folded into that. With Jon Lester’s situation uncertain, it makes sense for Boston to explore it, given that Lester and Lackey are the anchors of the Red Sox rotation.
To repeat: Only in the media is Lackey’s deal an issue, because of how unique it is, at a time when salaries have never been higher.
Around the league
• On Wednesday’s podcast, Kurt Suzuki told of coming across a shark in the waters off Maui, and Tim Kurkjian and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review discussed the first days of Gregory Polanco.
• The signing of Suzuki has been crucial for the Twins, writes Sid Hartman.
• Yoenis Cespedes did it again, making another incredible throw, and Oakland avoided being swept by the Angels.
Jason Hammel
Mike McGinnis/Getty Images
Jason Hammel has allowed just 16 walks and five homers in 78 1/3 innings this season.
• Executives who have had contact with the Cubs sense that trade talks involving their available pitching -- Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija -- are beginning to gain traction. Chicago may well follow the same strategy that it did last year, when it moved a secondary piece -- right-hander Scott Feldman -- to help open the market for a primary target, Matt Garza.
More teams seem interested in Hammel because they expect the price tag will be lower, given that Hammel is eligible for free agency in the fall. Hammel has allowed just 16 walks and five homers in 78 1/3 innings, with a 2.53 ERA, and he could theoretically be a fit for teams needing short-term rotation help like the Blue Jays, Pirates, A’s, Orioles and Marlins. Hammel struggled Wednesday.
Samardzija will be under team control through 2015, and he is viewed as the most attractive starting pitcher in the market, so far.
• The Mariners have been asking around about available power hitting, as well as starting pitching.
• The Diamondbacks lost to Houston on Wednesday night, but Arizona has won eight of its last 12 series, and split one of the other four. Since April 29, the D-Backs are 21-17 and are within 6.5 games of the second NL wild-card spot -- not exactly close, but hardly out of contention with about 3½ months to play. So the Diamondbacks intend to wait until early July, at least, before deciding whether to sell off players. Mark Trumbo has started taking batting practice and is due to rejoin Arizona from the disabled list soon.
• If the Diamondbacks ever decide to move payroll, scouts with other teams have expressed interest in outfielder Gerardo Parra, who is making $4.85 million this year but is arbitration-eligible for 2015 and could be a free agent after next season.
• Trevor Cahill is likely to accept his assignment to the minors and prepare for an eventual return to the starting rotation, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Adam Wainwright has an unspecified elbow issue.
• The Nationals have shut down the Giants this week in the first three games of a series in San Francisco. On Wednesday, Matt Cain struggled to throw strikes, as Henry Schulman writes.
• For now, the Giants will leave a top infield prospect in the minors.
• Tanner Roark dominated. Ryan Zimmerman made a couple of good plays: here’s No. 1, and here’s No. 2.
• Masahiro Tanaka continues to justify the Yankees’ investment in him: He shut down the Mariners. New York is 11-2 in his starts.
• Hanley Ramirez has a shoulder issue. He is eligible for free agency in the fall, and this is not going well for him so far. From Dylan Hernandez’s story:
He has not been on the disabled list this season, but he did not make one start because of a bruised thumb and three more because of a sore calf. Those injuries were not considered major, and neither is this one, but the cumulative effect could be hard for the Dodgers to escape.
"Everything happens for a reason," Ramirez said. "We're playing well. Nothing negative right now."
Ramirez said he is not worried about what effect any injury might have on the likelihood of negotiating a new contract with the Dodgers.
"Contract," he scoffed, drawing out the syllables and rolling his eyes. "I don't care about that. I'm just focused on winning right now."
Mattingly said he does not feel any pressure in trying to balance the need of his team to field a healthy starting nine and the need of Ramirez to get in the lineup and produce.
"I don't worry about the other stuff," Mattingly said. "We're trying to win games, simple as that.
"You always want to protect the player. If they're banged up, we try and protect them. We don't want anybody to go out there at half-speed. I can't worry about contracts."
• Matt Kemp was ejected from Wednesday’s loss, as Bill Plunkett writes.
• As of this morning, four AL Central teams have 33 victories, and the other has 31. In other words: Gentlemen, start your engines.
• Justin Verlander lost again. Brad Ausmus sounded annoyed, as Tom Gage writes.
• The Royals completed a sweep, moving over .500. Mike Moustakas has been hitting better, writes Andy McCullough. The Indians had a sluggish loss.
• Johnny Cueto has been the best pitcher in the National League so far, and he dominated the Dodgers.
These are Cueto’s current major league rankings:
ERA, 1.85: 1st
WHIP, 0.77: 1st (Adam Wainwright is second, at 0.93)
Opponents’ average, .160: 1st
Opponents’ OPS, .479: 1st (Wainwright is second, .539)
Cueto has allowed a total of 26 runs in 14 starts this season, and a lot of those have come on home runs. But even with homers, he’s limited damage: Of the eight homers he’s surrendered, six have been solo shots, with two two-run homers.
When hitters have reached two strikes against him, they have had almost no success in digging themselves out.
When at-bats end on pitches with a 0-2 count: 4-for-29, 1 double, 15 strikeouts.
1-2 count: 7-for-65, two doubles, 37 strikeouts.
2-2 count: 3-for-60, 37 strikeouts.
3-2 counts: 8-for-44, 1 double, 2 homers, 13 walks, 20 strikeouts.
The totals: 22-for-198, 4 doubles, 2 homers, 13 walks, 109 strikeouts.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Cueto shut down the Dodgers
A. He allowed a season-low eight balls in play.
B. He threw 32 fastballs up in the zone for 18 strikes without allowing any to be put into play. Has now thrown 71 fastballs up in the zone over his last three starts and only two have been put into play (both were outs).
C. He tied a season-high with 12 strikeouts, five via changeup (also a season-high), and all five of those were swing-and-misses.
D. He had just 13 called strikes (second-fewest for him this season) thanks to a season-high 54.5 percent swing percentage.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Manny Machado is not expected to drop his appeal of his suspension, writes Roch Kubatko; rather, he hopes the suspension will be reduced to three or four games.
2. Kevin Pillar was returned to the minors.
3. Ben Cherington is owning the Stephen Drew deal.
4. The Red Sox signed Andres Torres.
5. The Cubs signed their No. 1 pick.
6. Andrew Heaney is about to join the Marlins.
7. The Rays signed their first-round pick.
Dings and dents
1. Francisco Liriano was placed on the disabled list. The Pirates are scrambling, writes Gene Collier.
2. Cliff Lee took a small step in the rehab process.
3. Carlos Gonzalez could be out five weeks, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Chad Billingsley has been shut down.
5. Michael Saunders was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
6. The Yankees activated Shawn Kelley.
7. Tanner Scheppers is headed to the disabled list.
Wednesday’s games
1. The Jays’ offense continues to be flat.
2. Tyler Matzek boosted the Rockies for a night.
3. Reid Brignac walked it off.
4. Wei-Yin Chen won, shutting down the Red Sox.
5. Wily Peralta was back on track.
6. Julio Teheran had a rough start against the Rockies, and Atlanta fell out of first place.
7. Dallas Keuchel continues to mesmerize, as Jesus Ortiz writes.
8. The Rays ended their losing streak.
AL West
Yu Darvish
AP Photo/LM Otero
Texas starter Yu Darvish threw his first career complete game on Wednesday against Miami.
• Yu Darvish's short-term success could be a big-picture problem for Texas, writes Evan Grant.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Darvish dominated the Marlins:
A. He had his first career complete game and shutout in his 73rd start, after five previous career scoreless outings with at least eight innings pitched.
B. He allowed only one runner to reach second base (Christian Yelich led off the first inning with a walk and advanced to second on a wild pitch).
C. He threw 28.2 percent of his pitches inside, his second-highest inside rate of the season.
D. He mixed up his pitches; 46 percent of his pitches were fastballs, the first time in four games he was below 56 percent fastballs.
E. Seven of his 10 strikeouts (70 percent) came on a splitter or cutter, up from his season rate of 51 percent on those pitches.
F. He held the Marlins hitless in 12 at-bats with men on base. He had allowed a .206 BA with runners on base in his first 11 games.
• The Angels may have benefited from a bad road trip, writes Jim Peltz.
AL Central
• Phil Coke is shocked by rumors he wants out of Detroit.
• Catching runs in the family of one player drafted by the Tigers.
• The Indians’ play has taken pressure off Jason Kipnis.
• The Twins have dominated AL East teams, as La Velle Neal writes.
• Jose Abreu did it again, and the White Sox won.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Abreu hit his 19th home run in his 52nd career game. Since 1900, only Wally Berger hit more, 20, through his first 52 career games with the 1930 Boston Braves.
• Robin Ventura talked about how teams are pitching to Abreu.
AL East
• From the Elias Sports Bureau: Derek Jeter stole his 350th and 351st career bases to join Craig Biggio and Rickey Henderson as the only players in MLB history with 3,000 hits, 250 home runs and 350 steals. It was Jeter’s first multi-stolen base game since Sept. 25, 2009 (against the Red Sox) and the 22nd of his career.
NL West
• Tyson Ross had a strong start, but the Padres lost.
NL Central
• The Cardinals are stacking up shortstops in their organization.
• Here is a true sign of how fatigued Yadier Molina has been, from Bernie Miklasz.
• Bob Nutting is worried that the hype might be too much for Gregory Polanco.
• The Brewers are sticking with Scooter Gennett in the leadoff spot, writes Todd Rosiak.
• The Cubs' prospects aren’t going to be here anytime soon, writes Rick Morrissey.
NL East
• The Mets have reached the intersection of patience and expectation, writes Tyler Kepner.
• Terry Collins won’t be around for long, writes Joel Sherman.
• Evan Gattis’ defense has improved, as David O’Brien writes.
• The Marlins have refused to fold, writes Craig Davis.
Lastly
• Lew Wolff revealed his team’s lease details, as Mark Purdy writes.
• Tony Gwynn received his extension, writes Kirk Kenney.
• Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons wants umpires to be able to review whether batters allow themselves to be hit by pitches.
• Noah Trister writes about the upside and downside of headfirst slides.
• Vanderbilt is off to Omaha.
And today will be better than yesterday.
MLB's illogical discipline system.
A lot of National Football League teams use point systems to help with decisions in certain on-the-fly situations, so they can keep everything straight. After touchdowns, head coaches and assistants often rely on a chart to determine when it's appropriate to kick an extra point or attempt a two-point conversion, within the context of the score and time remaining. During the NFL draft, general managers use predetermined value metrics to assess what they should give or receive in a trade for a particular draft pick.
This way, the coach or the club executives have a menu to draw from, like a kid in math class determining the area of a rectangle or the diameter of a circle. This way, their choices make more sense.
This sort of problem-solving seems especially relevant in the aftermath of the discipline rendered in the cases of Manny Machado and Fernando Abad on Tuesday, which, like other recent choices, appear to have been pulled off a spinning wheel of fortune. You don't know exactly what decision will pop up.
On May 30, Rays starter David Price drilled Red Sox slugger David Ortiz in the first inning, on the first pitch of the at-bat, and plate umpire Dan Bellino saw sufficient intent in the pitch -- and why not, given the Hatfields and McCoys history between these two teams -- to issue a warning to both teams.
In the fourth inning, A.J. Pierzynski doubled with two outs, leaving first base open, and Price hit Mike Carp with his very next pitch. Price was not ejected.
Then, in the top of the sixth inning, Boston starter Brandon Workman threw a shoulder-high pitch that was a couple of feet behind Evan Longoria, a clear message. Although Workman didn't actually come close to hitting Longoria, he was ejected.
When the discipline came down, Price -- who had hit two batters and had drawn enough suspicion that he caused a warning for both teams -- was fined but not suspended. But Workman was suspended for six games, despite hitting nobody.
Are you following the bouncing ball? Because it's about to get really crazy.
In the eighth inning of Sunday's game between the Orioles and Athletics, Manny Machado -- who had raised the ire of Oakland players repeatedly over the three-game series -- came to bat against Fernando Abad. Two innings before, Machado had whacked Derek Norris in the helmet with his backswing and then not expressed concern to their satisfaction.
The Oakland reliever appeared to try to hit Machado with his first pitch, low and inside, and since Abad missed on the first pitch, he tried again -- and missed again. Machado then threw his bat, which tumbled beyond third base.
Now, a lot of folks in the sport will tell you in a private moment that they fear incidents involving a bat more than they fear a hit batsmen, because the last thing in the world they want are hitters reflexively deciding, in a moment of anger, that it's OK to use a bat as a weapon. They cringe at the thought of an enraged hitter bashing a catcher over the head, the way Juan Marichal did many years ago in the midst of a Dodgers-Giants pennant race, or running out to the mound and going all Paul Bunyan on a pitcher.
On Tuesday, Machado was suspended for five games, or half of what Michael Pineda got for using pine tar in his effort to control the baseball and not hit somebody in the head, as Pineda explained. Abad -- who had twice tried to hit Machado and missed and was ejected after Machado fired his bat -- was fined.
To review:
• Price, a starting pitcher, generated a warning for both teams by hitting one batter and then drilled another, but was not ejected. He was merely fined.
• Abad, a reliever, twice tried to hit Machado but missed down by his legs, and was ejected only after Machado reacted. Abad was merely fined.
• Machado, an every-day player, committed perhaps the most egregious act, throwing his bat. He got five games.
• Workman, a starting pitcher, threw behind Longoria but hit nobody, after a warning. Workman was suspended for six games.
• Pineda, who didn't come close to hurting anyone, got 10 games.
If you're struggling to find the threads of logic in this, just hang on, because we're going to make this really complicated.
In April 2013, Carlos Quentin -- a position player -- got nailed with an eight-game suspension for charging the mound after being hit by a pitch from Zack Greinke.
Last August, Ryan Dempster threw behind Alex Rodriguez and then subsequently drilled him. He was not ejected. Dempster was suspended for five games, one less than what Workman got.
Last summer, Tigers starter Rick Porcello got a six-game suspension for drilling the Rays' Ben Zobrist in a retaliation situation, after Miguel Cabrera was dusted.
A year ago today, Ian Kennedy -- clearly retaliating -- hit Greinke on his head and got 10 games.
Price smoked two hitters in the midst of a game in which he was deemed to have had intent, but he wasn't suspended. Dempster treated Rodriguez like he was a pin cushion and got five games. Workman hit nobody and got six games. Machado fired his bat after he wasn't hit and got five games, or three games less than Quentin, who charged the mound after he was hit by a pitch. Kennedy was zapped with 10 games.
If you're confused, you're not alone; players, club executives and agents gripe about what they perceive to be a constantly shifting landscape of penalties. Based on all that precedent, would you blame a player if he was confused about the standards of discipline? Would you blame players for appealing, because they really have no idea what the heck constitutes grounds for a suspension?
Major League Baseball should start thinking about developing a formula, just as NFL general managers have in trading draft picks, in which point values are assigned, on a graduated scale, for each of the following offenses (plus others).
1. Prompting an umpires' warning with a pitch.
2. Hitting a batter with what is deemed to be intent.
3. Throwing a pitch that doesn't hit a batter but is deemed to have been fired with intent (like those of Workman or Abad).
4. Charging the mound.
5. Acting aggressively in a fight.
6. Using a bat in an aggressive manner.
It seems kind of ridiculous that a pitcher who intentionally drills a batter before a warning receives less of a sanction than a pitcher who does so after a warning. What's most dangerous is the act of hitting a batter, not the timing of it. Why would Dempster – who clearly threw at Rodriguez over and over and smoked him – get less of a suspension than Workman, who hit nobody?
Maybe it's time for Major League Baseball to move away from trying to assess the quality of the attempt to hit a batter, because it seems that league officials have worked themselves into a murky morass. MLB believes that Abad tried to hit Machado, but because he threw at the hitter's legs, he got nothing -- and Porcello got six games for hitting a batter higher in the body? Does MLB really want to define the right way and the wrong way to drill a batter on purpose? Or would it be better to say simply: Throwing at a batter intentionally won't be tolerated.
Maybe it's time for MLB to make it very clear that using a bat in an aggressive manner will not be tolerated.
Maybe it's time for MLB and the union to review and reset and redefine what the penalties will be. The decisions have fallen off the logic cliff, and this stuff is way too important for that kind of uncertainty.
Around the league
The Orioles are hoping that Manny Machado has learned from his wake-up call, writes Peter Schmuck. Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette was forceful in his assessment of Machado. From Dan Connolly's story:
“Actually I said that the kid established himself as a big leaguer last year. He needs to make a living at the big league level, and if he can't, it's an option to send him to the minors,” Duquette said. “I think Manny needs to re-establish himself as a big leaguer this season. And I hope he can do it and it is with us.”
Machado has initially appealed the suspension -- though the appeal could be dropped before a potential hearing next week. And Duquette stressed that Machado must serve the suspension in the majors, so a minor league demotion is not impending.
Duquette also pointed out that “any player who has options can be optioned to the minor leagues. Any player.”
Still, it would be a huge surprise, and obviously would have an intended message, if Machado was moved off the Orioles' 25-man roster. He made the American League All-Star team last year and won a Platinum Glove as the AL's best defender.
The Orioles tried to control Machado's apology but it was a misfire, writes John Shea.
• Yoenis Cespedes' incredible throw Tuesday night reminds me of the throw that Vladimir Guerrero made against the Mets in 1997.
The Angels beat Oakland again, with a walk-off, as Susan Slusser writes.
• On Tuesday's podcast, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony discussed the signing of Kendrys Morales, and Jayson Stark talked about Gregory Polanco. On Monday, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt recalled some cool stories from his career, including his memorable reaction to his 500th homer.
• Polanco made his debut and got his first hit, but the Pirates lost, and lost pitcher Francisco Liriano.
Just let the kid play, writes Dejan Kovacevic.
• The Nationals' run of starting pitching continues: Doug Fister shut down the Giants, the night after Stephen Strasburg did. From Adam Kilgore's story:
In a 2012 World Series rematch, Doug Fister outdueled Madison Bumgarner with seven scoreless innings that continued the Nationals' remarkable run of starting pitching. Werth both drove home the eventual deciding run with an RBI single in the fifth inning and prevented a run by throwing out Pablo Sandoval at the plate to end the sixth. Two of the best teams in the National League stood eye to eye all night, and the Nationals prevailed.
“That,” utility man Kevin Frandsen said, “was awesome.”
Despite seven big, fat zeroes on the scoreboard, Fister worked hard for his fifth win. He yielded eight hits and constantly worked his way out of trouble, sometimes with the help of his defense. In the sixth, with the Nationals holding a 2-0 lead, Sandoval led off with a double. Fister recorded the next two outs.
• Michael Cuddyer suffered an X Games type of injury.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies should wait to trade Cliff Lee, writes David Murphy. They really don't have any choice, because other teams won't deal for him until they're convinced he's healthy.
2. The Diamondbacks need to figure out what happened with the Trevor Cahill trade, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Tony Gwynn is expected to get a contract extension with San Diego State.
4. Jason Lane returned to Triple-A.
Dings and dents
1. Wilson Ramos left the game.
2. A Rockies pitcher has a shoulder issue.
Tuesday's games
1. Workman had a strong outing against the Orioles. From ESPN Stats & Info, how he won:
A. The Orioles chased 50 percent of his curveballs, the highest percentage in Workman's career.
B. He got seven outs with his curveball (six in his other three starts combined).
C. 76.5 percent of his curveballs were strikes (career high).
2. Josh Beckett was dominant against the Reds.
3. Derek Jeter started a couple of rallies.
4. The Rays have been shut out in three straight games. From Marc Topkin's story:
With Tuesday's 1-0 loss to the Cardinals, these Rays, the ones with the franchise-record $80 million payroll and World Series expectations, faltered to a new level of futility, a third consecutive shutout running their scoreless streak to a franchise-record 28 innings, two more than Hal McRae's 2002 bunch stumbled to in April.
"It's baffling in some regards," manager Joe Maddon said. "I've been through this before ... but not with this group of names. It's more difficult with this group of names. They're good names."
To get there, the Rays (24-42) were blanked for a third straight time (the first time in their history and the first American League team to do so in 10 years) and 10th time this season (tied for most in the majors), wasting a strong start by Jake Odorizzi.
Overall, it was the majors-worst Rays' 14th loss in a 15-game stretch in which they've scored 35 runs, hit .266 and gone 10-for-101 with runners in scoring position.
5. The Royals are back to .500.
NL East
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Jonathan Papelbon recorded the 300th save of his career. He has the third-most saves among active pitchers, trailing Joe Nathan (354) and Francisco Rodriguez (323). Papelbon also moved into a tie for 24th all-time with Bruce Sutter and Jason Isringhausen.
NL Central
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Anthony Rizzo homered off Francisco Liriano on Tuesday. This continues Rizzo's huge improvement against left-handed pitchers compared to 2013. He had a .625 OPS with 7 homers against southpaws last year, and those numbers are at 1.069 and 5 this year.
NL West
• Troy Tulowitzki stood up in defense of his teammates.
• Paul Goldschmidt remains steady.
• The Giants have a losing streak.
AL East
• Will Middlebrooks wants to have a place with the Red Sox.
AL Central
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Brian Dozier hit homers in consecutive games for the third time this year. He has 14 homers this season; he didn't hit his 14th homer last season until Aug. 29 (finished with 1.
AL West
• Gerry Fraley explained why this isn't a lost season for the Rangers.
Lastly
• The news about Bob Welch is so sad.
• Here was Welch's best moment on the field, in Game 2 of the 1978 World Series. Dave Stewart is speechless.
• Steve Dilbeck remembers Welch.
And today will be better than yesterday.
This way, the coach or the club executives have a menu to draw from, like a kid in math class determining the area of a rectangle or the diameter of a circle. This way, their choices make more sense.
This sort of problem-solving seems especially relevant in the aftermath of the discipline rendered in the cases of Manny Machado and Fernando Abad on Tuesday, which, like other recent choices, appear to have been pulled off a spinning wheel of fortune. You don't know exactly what decision will pop up.
On May 30, Rays starter David Price drilled Red Sox slugger David Ortiz in the first inning, on the first pitch of the at-bat, and plate umpire Dan Bellino saw sufficient intent in the pitch -- and why not, given the Hatfields and McCoys history between these two teams -- to issue a warning to both teams.
In the fourth inning, A.J. Pierzynski doubled with two outs, leaving first base open, and Price hit Mike Carp with his very next pitch. Price was not ejected.
Then, in the top of the sixth inning, Boston starter Brandon Workman threw a shoulder-high pitch that was a couple of feet behind Evan Longoria, a clear message. Although Workman didn't actually come close to hitting Longoria, he was ejected.
When the discipline came down, Price -- who had hit two batters and had drawn enough suspicion that he caused a warning for both teams -- was fined but not suspended. But Workman was suspended for six games, despite hitting nobody.
Are you following the bouncing ball? Because it's about to get really crazy.
In the eighth inning of Sunday's game between the Orioles and Athletics, Manny Machado -- who had raised the ire of Oakland players repeatedly over the three-game series -- came to bat against Fernando Abad. Two innings before, Machado had whacked Derek Norris in the helmet with his backswing and then not expressed concern to their satisfaction.
The Oakland reliever appeared to try to hit Machado with his first pitch, low and inside, and since Abad missed on the first pitch, he tried again -- and missed again. Machado then threw his bat, which tumbled beyond third base.
Now, a lot of folks in the sport will tell you in a private moment that they fear incidents involving a bat more than they fear a hit batsmen, because the last thing in the world they want are hitters reflexively deciding, in a moment of anger, that it's OK to use a bat as a weapon. They cringe at the thought of an enraged hitter bashing a catcher over the head, the way Juan Marichal did many years ago in the midst of a Dodgers-Giants pennant race, or running out to the mound and going all Paul Bunyan on a pitcher.
On Tuesday, Machado was suspended for five games, or half of what Michael Pineda got for using pine tar in his effort to control the baseball and not hit somebody in the head, as Pineda explained. Abad -- who had twice tried to hit Machado and missed and was ejected after Machado fired his bat -- was fined.
To review:
• Price, a starting pitcher, generated a warning for both teams by hitting one batter and then drilled another, but was not ejected. He was merely fined.
• Abad, a reliever, twice tried to hit Machado but missed down by his legs, and was ejected only after Machado reacted. Abad was merely fined.
• Machado, an every-day player, committed perhaps the most egregious act, throwing his bat. He got five games.
• Workman, a starting pitcher, threw behind Longoria but hit nobody, after a warning. Workman was suspended for six games.
• Pineda, who didn't come close to hurting anyone, got 10 games.
If you're struggling to find the threads of logic in this, just hang on, because we're going to make this really complicated.
In April 2013, Carlos Quentin -- a position player -- got nailed with an eight-game suspension for charging the mound after being hit by a pitch from Zack Greinke.
Last August, Ryan Dempster threw behind Alex Rodriguez and then subsequently drilled him. He was not ejected. Dempster was suspended for five games, one less than what Workman got.
Last summer, Tigers starter Rick Porcello got a six-game suspension for drilling the Rays' Ben Zobrist in a retaliation situation, after Miguel Cabrera was dusted.
A year ago today, Ian Kennedy -- clearly retaliating -- hit Greinke on his head and got 10 games.
Price smoked two hitters in the midst of a game in which he was deemed to have had intent, but he wasn't suspended. Dempster treated Rodriguez like he was a pin cushion and got five games. Workman hit nobody and got six games. Machado fired his bat after he wasn't hit and got five games, or three games less than Quentin, who charged the mound after he was hit by a pitch. Kennedy was zapped with 10 games.
If you're confused, you're not alone; players, club executives and agents gripe about what they perceive to be a constantly shifting landscape of penalties. Based on all that precedent, would you blame a player if he was confused about the standards of discipline? Would you blame players for appealing, because they really have no idea what the heck constitutes grounds for a suspension?
Major League Baseball should start thinking about developing a formula, just as NFL general managers have in trading draft picks, in which point values are assigned, on a graduated scale, for each of the following offenses (plus others).
1. Prompting an umpires' warning with a pitch.
2. Hitting a batter with what is deemed to be intent.
3. Throwing a pitch that doesn't hit a batter but is deemed to have been fired with intent (like those of Workman or Abad).
4. Charging the mound.
5. Acting aggressively in a fight.
6. Using a bat in an aggressive manner.
It seems kind of ridiculous that a pitcher who intentionally drills a batter before a warning receives less of a sanction than a pitcher who does so after a warning. What's most dangerous is the act of hitting a batter, not the timing of it. Why would Dempster – who clearly threw at Rodriguez over and over and smoked him – get less of a suspension than Workman, who hit nobody?
Maybe it's time for Major League Baseball to move away from trying to assess the quality of the attempt to hit a batter, because it seems that league officials have worked themselves into a murky morass. MLB believes that Abad tried to hit Machado, but because he threw at the hitter's legs, he got nothing -- and Porcello got six games for hitting a batter higher in the body? Does MLB really want to define the right way and the wrong way to drill a batter on purpose? Or would it be better to say simply: Throwing at a batter intentionally won't be tolerated.
Maybe it's time for MLB to make it very clear that using a bat in an aggressive manner will not be tolerated.
Maybe it's time for MLB and the union to review and reset and redefine what the penalties will be. The decisions have fallen off the logic cliff, and this stuff is way too important for that kind of uncertainty.
Around the league
The Orioles are hoping that Manny Machado has learned from his wake-up call, writes Peter Schmuck. Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette was forceful in his assessment of Machado. From Dan Connolly's story:
“Actually I said that the kid established himself as a big leaguer last year. He needs to make a living at the big league level, and if he can't, it's an option to send him to the minors,” Duquette said. “I think Manny needs to re-establish himself as a big leaguer this season. And I hope he can do it and it is with us.”
Machado has initially appealed the suspension -- though the appeal could be dropped before a potential hearing next week. And Duquette stressed that Machado must serve the suspension in the majors, so a minor league demotion is not impending.
Duquette also pointed out that “any player who has options can be optioned to the minor leagues. Any player.”
Still, it would be a huge surprise, and obviously would have an intended message, if Machado was moved off the Orioles' 25-man roster. He made the American League All-Star team last year and won a Platinum Glove as the AL's best defender.
The Orioles tried to control Machado's apology but it was a misfire, writes John Shea.
• Yoenis Cespedes' incredible throw Tuesday night reminds me of the throw that Vladimir Guerrero made against the Mets in 1997.
The Angels beat Oakland again, with a walk-off, as Susan Slusser writes.
• On Tuesday's podcast, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony discussed the signing of Kendrys Morales, and Jayson Stark talked about Gregory Polanco. On Monday, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt recalled some cool stories from his career, including his memorable reaction to his 500th homer.
• Polanco made his debut and got his first hit, but the Pirates lost, and lost pitcher Francisco Liriano.
Just let the kid play, writes Dejan Kovacevic.
• The Nationals' run of starting pitching continues: Doug Fister shut down the Giants, the night after Stephen Strasburg did. From Adam Kilgore's story:
In a 2012 World Series rematch, Doug Fister outdueled Madison Bumgarner with seven scoreless innings that continued the Nationals' remarkable run of starting pitching. Werth both drove home the eventual deciding run with an RBI single in the fifth inning and prevented a run by throwing out Pablo Sandoval at the plate to end the sixth. Two of the best teams in the National League stood eye to eye all night, and the Nationals prevailed.
“That,” utility man Kevin Frandsen said, “was awesome.”
Despite seven big, fat zeroes on the scoreboard, Fister worked hard for his fifth win. He yielded eight hits and constantly worked his way out of trouble, sometimes with the help of his defense. In the sixth, with the Nationals holding a 2-0 lead, Sandoval led off with a double. Fister recorded the next two outs.
• Michael Cuddyer suffered an X Games type of injury.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies should wait to trade Cliff Lee, writes David Murphy. They really don't have any choice, because other teams won't deal for him until they're convinced he's healthy.
2. The Diamondbacks need to figure out what happened with the Trevor Cahill trade, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Tony Gwynn is expected to get a contract extension with San Diego State.
4. Jason Lane returned to Triple-A.
Dings and dents
1. Wilson Ramos left the game.
2. A Rockies pitcher has a shoulder issue.
Tuesday's games
1. Workman had a strong outing against the Orioles. From ESPN Stats & Info, how he won:
A. The Orioles chased 50 percent of his curveballs, the highest percentage in Workman's career.
B. He got seven outs with his curveball (six in his other three starts combined).
C. 76.5 percent of his curveballs were strikes (career high).
2. Josh Beckett was dominant against the Reds.
3. Derek Jeter started a couple of rallies.
4. The Rays have been shut out in three straight games. From Marc Topkin's story:
With Tuesday's 1-0 loss to the Cardinals, these Rays, the ones with the franchise-record $80 million payroll and World Series expectations, faltered to a new level of futility, a third consecutive shutout running their scoreless streak to a franchise-record 28 innings, two more than Hal McRae's 2002 bunch stumbled to in April.
"It's baffling in some regards," manager Joe Maddon said. "I've been through this before ... but not with this group of names. It's more difficult with this group of names. They're good names."
To get there, the Rays (24-42) were blanked for a third straight time (the first time in their history and the first American League team to do so in 10 years) and 10th time this season (tied for most in the majors), wasting a strong start by Jake Odorizzi.
Overall, it was the majors-worst Rays' 14th loss in a 15-game stretch in which they've scored 35 runs, hit .266 and gone 10-for-101 with runners in scoring position.
5. The Royals are back to .500.
NL East
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Jonathan Papelbon recorded the 300th save of his career. He has the third-most saves among active pitchers, trailing Joe Nathan (354) and Francisco Rodriguez (323). Papelbon also moved into a tie for 24th all-time with Bruce Sutter and Jason Isringhausen.
NL Central
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Anthony Rizzo homered off Francisco Liriano on Tuesday. This continues Rizzo's huge improvement against left-handed pitchers compared to 2013. He had a .625 OPS with 7 homers against southpaws last year, and those numbers are at 1.069 and 5 this year.
NL West
• Troy Tulowitzki stood up in defense of his teammates.
• Paul Goldschmidt remains steady.
• The Giants have a losing streak.
AL East
• Will Middlebrooks wants to have a place with the Red Sox.
AL Central
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Brian Dozier hit homers in consecutive games for the third time this year. He has 14 homers this season; he didn't hit his 14th homer last season until Aug. 29 (finished with 1
. AL West
• Gerry Fraley explained why this isn't a lost season for the Rangers.
Lastly
• The news about Bob Welch is so sad.
• Here was Welch's best moment on the field, in Game 2 of the 1978 World Series. Dave Stewart is speechless.
• Steve Dilbeck remembers Welch.
And today will be better than yesterday.
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