- Oct 16, 2010
- 6,359
- 3,561
Anybody ever got their kid to be an honorary bat boy? I want to do that for my nephew this season.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
except for bobby taking all the bosox players
traitor
like I said man, it's win/win for me. Either they suck and Boston is having a down year or they're great and I'm winning in fantasy I am not one of those kinda fans when it comes to fantasy baseball.Breakout pitchers based on 'stuff'.
Rumors.
The Tigers Don’t Need Stephen Drew.
Pitching Through Pain Rarely Works Out Well.
Jimmy Rollins and the Incentives of Vesting Options.
Brian Wilson Has Thought This Whole Thing Through.
Ranking the Minor League Systems by Impact: #1-15.
When forecasting pitchers, the numbers we see in box scores don't tell the whole story. As Yogi Berra may well have once said, you can observe a lot just by watching.
Play Fantasy Baseball
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In an attempt to capture some of the insights one gains from scouting pitchers without relying on our own subjective judgments, my colleagues and I at Steamer built a model to project a pitcher's performance based on the velocity, movement and diversity of their pitches, as captured by PITCHf/x. This model, which attempts to measure a pitcher's "stuff," uses PITCHf/x data from BrooksBaseball.
Based on their 2013 pitches and the resulting "stuff" ratings, we expect the following pitchers to be better than they appear based on traditional statistics alone.
lastname
1. Danny Salazar, RHP | Cleveland Indians
Salazar was terrific in the 52 major league innings he threw this past summer, but this is the kind of small sample size we'd typically view with great skepticism. What the numbers don't reveal is that Salazar has "stuff" that's as good as that of any starter in the game, with a 96 mph four-seam fastball and a tremendous splitter.
His performances in Double- and Triple-A in 2013 further reinforce our belief in his dominance -- adjusted for league quality, those performances translate to a 2.74 MLB ERA. Finally, we can look at xxFIP, a metric designed by Chris Carruthers that is based on pitch-level data (swings, misses, foul balls and strikes looking) and has more predictive power than traditional statistics for pitchers with limited history.
According to xxFIP, Salazar's 2013 season was the best performance by any starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era (since 2007, that is) who faced at least 200 batters. In short, based on the most granular numbers available, as well as his repertoire, we can't rule out the possibility that Salazar is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He might be about to show it.
lastname
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Liriano, last year's National League Comeback Player of the Year, has alternated between excellence and futility over the course of his career, and in cases like his, the best forecast is usually something in between. In Liriano's case, however, there's a clear connection between his "stuff" and his results; in seasons in which Liriano's fastball has averaged at least 93 mph, he's struck out better than one batter per inning.
If we keep an eye on Liriano's radar gun readings during his first two or three starts in 2014, we should have a better idea which Liriano we'll see this year. If he's throwing 93 mph, there's reason for more optimism than his stats alone would allow.
lastname
3. Charlie Morton, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Morton allowed a mere six home runs in 116 innings last year. Success based largely on keeping the ball in the ballpark should typically be taken with a grain of salt, but not so in the case of Morton, whose tremendous sinker induced ground balls 63 percent of balls put in play last year, a mark that would have easily led the league if he had pitched enough innings to qualify.
Morton's "stuff" -- the quality of his sinker and the frequency with which he uses it -- suggests that we can expect his worm-killing ways to continue.
lastname
4. Homer Bailey, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
Bailey struck out 23 percent of the batters he faced last year, a significant jump from the 18 percent he'd struck out previously in his career. While it would generally be prudent to hedge your bets and to expect significant regression, there's reason for more optimism in Bailey's case.
He started throwing his four-seam fastball a full 1.5 mph faster last year and, over the last two seasons, has mixed his offerings more than he had in the past. Bailey's higher strikeout rate was commensurate with his "stuff," which was better than ever and ranked among the best in the game. Bailey has a chance to show that he's among the game's elite pitchers this year.
lastname
5. Zack Wheeler, RHP | New York Mets
Wheeler's "stuff" was among the best in baseball last year, but his strikeout-walk ratio (1.83) suggests that his pitching was not nearly as good. However, as Jeff Sullivan recently pointed out, there's an alternative explanation that leads to a stronger forecast. Wheeler was disproportionately hurt by a miserly strike zone last year, receiving 35 fewer strike calls than would be expected based on the locations of his pitches. This may have been due to John Buck's poor pitch framing, it might be a reflection of the umpire's reluctance to give borderline calls to a rookie pitcher with shaky command, or it might have simply been bad luck. In any case, it's unlikely to continue.
While 35 strikes might not sound like much, over 100 innings it's the difference between a pitcher with an average strike rate and one who struggles with control. Put another way, 35 lost strikes is equivalent to an extra four-tenths of a point in ERA over the 100 innings Wheeler threw.
lastname
6. Jeff Samardzija, RHP | Chicago Cubs
The Shark has excellent strikeout and walk numbers over the past two seasons, and has been held back only by allowing more than his share of home runs. This turns out to be good news, as allowing home runs typically has little predictive power.
Samardzija's hard sinker, along with his ground-ball rate, strongly suggests that home runs are unlikely to be a problem for him going forward, and his 95 mph four-seam fastball indicates that he's a good bet to maintain his high strikeout rates.
7. Yordano Ventura, RHP | Kansas City Royals
Ventura has the honor of having thrown the fastest recorded pitch by a starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era, a blazing 101.9 mph. His fastball averaged 98 mph last season, and those few spring training fastballs that have been captured by PITCHf/x so far this year have averaged 98 mph as well.
He complements his four-seamer with a mix of curveballs, sinkers, changeups and cutters. Unlike Salazar, whose performance in both the minors and majors indicates that he's an ace, Ventura's numbers suggest that he's simply an average MLB starter. His "stuff" implies that he could be much more.
lastname
8. Nate Eovaldi, RHP | Miami Marlins
Despite his 96 mph fastball, Eovaldi had a below-average strikeout rate last year and succeeded primarily by avoiding home runs, a trend that's unlikely to persist. Both his walk rate and his strikeout rate are kept in check by his heavy and predictable reliance on his fastball -- a pitch he threw 86 percent of the time when he was behind in the count.
If he can learn to command as well as to trust his off-speed pitches, anything is possible and there's more upside here than Eovaldi's numbers suggest.
9. James Paxton, LHP | Seattle Mariners
Paxton's fastball averaged 94 mph last season, making him the hardest-throwing left-handed starter in baseball. All else equal, a left-handed starter can be expected to strike out roughly one more batter per nine innings than a right-handed pitcher who throws equally hard.
In fact, a lefty who throws 94 mph is akin to a right-handed pitcher throwing 96. Paxton's minor league numbers are underwhelming, equivalent to a 4.75 MLB ERA, but his "stuff" makes him worth monitoring.
lastname
10. Kevin Gausman, RHP | Baltimore Orioles
Look past the 5.66 ERA Gausman accrued over 47 2/3 innings split between starting and relief last year. Gausman's "stuff" insists that there's no limit to how good he might be, and his minor league numbers (the MLB equivalent of a 3.64 ERA) and his most granular MLB numbers (a 3.68 xxFIP) both suggest that he's a high-quality pitcher already.
Gausman has as good of a chance as anyone to be this year's Jose Fernandez, and should be considered one of favorites for the Rookie of the Year award.
Honorable mentions: Taijuan Walker, Carlos Martinez, Gerrit Cole and Garrett Richards.
Play Fantasy Baseball
FLB You lose 100 percent of the leagues you don't join.
Play For Free on ESPN.com »
In an attempt to capture some of the insights one gains from scouting pitchers without relying on our own subjective judgments, my colleagues and I at Steamer built a model to project a pitcher's performance based on the velocity, movement and diversity of their pitches, as captured by PITCHf/x. This model, which attempts to measure a pitcher's "stuff," uses PITCHf/x data from BrooksBaseball.
Based on their 2013 pitches and the resulting "stuff" ratings, we expect the following pitchers to be better than they appear based on traditional statistics alone.
lastname
1. Danny Salazar, RHP | Cleveland Indians
Salazar was terrific in the 52 major league innings he threw this past summer, but this is the kind of small sample size we'd typically view with great skepticism. What the numbers don't reveal is that Salazar has "stuff" that's as good as that of any starter in the game, with a 96 mph four-seam fastball and a tremendous splitter.
His performances in Double- and Triple-A in 2013 further reinforce our belief in his dominance -- adjusted for league quality, those performances translate to a 2.74 MLB ERA. Finally, we can look at xxFIP, a metric designed by Chris Carruthers that is based on pitch-level data (swings, misses, foul balls and strikes looking) and has more predictive power than traditional statistics for pitchers with limited history.
According to xxFIP, Salazar's 2013 season was the best performance by any starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era (since 2007, that is) who faced at least 200 batters. In short, based on the most granular numbers available, as well as his repertoire, we can't rule out the possibility that Salazar is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He might be about to show it.
lastname
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Liriano, last year's National League Comeback Player of the Year, has alternated between excellence and futility over the course of his career, and in cases like his, the best forecast is usually something in between. In Liriano's case, however, there's a clear connection between his "stuff" and his results; in seasons in which Liriano's fastball has averaged at least 93 mph, he's struck out better than one batter per inning.
If we keep an eye on Liriano's radar gun readings during his first two or three starts in 2014, we should have a better idea which Liriano we'll see this year. If he's throwing 93 mph, there's reason for more optimism than his stats alone would allow.
lastname
3. Charlie Morton, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Morton allowed a mere six home runs in 116 innings last year. Success based largely on keeping the ball in the ballpark should typically be taken with a grain of salt, but not so in the case of Morton, whose tremendous sinker induced ground balls 63 percent of balls put in play last year, a mark that would have easily led the league if he had pitched enough innings to qualify.
Morton's "stuff" -- the quality of his sinker and the frequency with which he uses it -- suggests that we can expect his worm-killing ways to continue.
lastname
4. Homer Bailey, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
Bailey struck out 23 percent of the batters he faced last year, a significant jump from the 18 percent he'd struck out previously in his career. While it would generally be prudent to hedge your bets and to expect significant regression, there's reason for more optimism in Bailey's case.
He started throwing his four-seam fastball a full 1.5 mph faster last year and, over the last two seasons, has mixed his offerings more than he had in the past. Bailey's higher strikeout rate was commensurate with his "stuff," which was better than ever and ranked among the best in the game. Bailey has a chance to show that he's among the game's elite pitchers this year.
lastname
5. Zack Wheeler, RHP | New York Mets
Wheeler's "stuff" was among the best in baseball last year, but his strikeout-walk ratio (1.83) suggests that his pitching was not nearly as good. However, as Jeff Sullivan recently pointed out, there's an alternative explanation that leads to a stronger forecast. Wheeler was disproportionately hurt by a miserly strike zone last year, receiving 35 fewer strike calls than would be expected based on the locations of his pitches. This may have been due to John Buck's poor pitch framing, it might be a reflection of the umpire's reluctance to give borderline calls to a rookie pitcher with shaky command, or it might have simply been bad luck. In any case, it's unlikely to continue.
While 35 strikes might not sound like much, over 100 innings it's the difference between a pitcher with an average strike rate and one who struggles with control. Put another way, 35 lost strikes is equivalent to an extra four-tenths of a point in ERA over the 100 innings Wheeler threw.
lastname
6. Jeff Samardzija, RHP | Chicago Cubs
The Shark has excellent strikeout and walk numbers over the past two seasons, and has been held back only by allowing more than his share of home runs. This turns out to be good news, as allowing home runs typically has little predictive power.
Samardzija's hard sinker, along with his ground-ball rate, strongly suggests that home runs are unlikely to be a problem for him going forward, and his 95 mph four-seam fastball indicates that he's a good bet to maintain his high strikeout rates.
7. Yordano Ventura, RHP | Kansas City Royals
Ventura has the honor of having thrown the fastest recorded pitch by a starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era, a blazing 101.9 mph. His fastball averaged 98 mph last season, and those few spring training fastballs that have been captured by PITCHf/x so far this year have averaged 98 mph as well.
He complements his four-seamer with a mix of curveballs, sinkers, changeups and cutters. Unlike Salazar, whose performance in both the minors and majors indicates that he's an ace, Ventura's numbers suggest that he's simply an average MLB starter. His "stuff" implies that he could be much more.
lastname
8. Nate Eovaldi, RHP | Miami Marlins
Despite his 96 mph fastball, Eovaldi had a below-average strikeout rate last year and succeeded primarily by avoiding home runs, a trend that's unlikely to persist. Both his walk rate and his strikeout rate are kept in check by his heavy and predictable reliance on his fastball -- a pitch he threw 86 percent of the time when he was behind in the count.
If he can learn to command as well as to trust his off-speed pitches, anything is possible and there's more upside here than Eovaldi's numbers suggest.
9. James Paxton, LHP | Seattle Mariners
Paxton's fastball averaged 94 mph last season, making him the hardest-throwing left-handed starter in baseball. All else equal, a left-handed starter can be expected to strike out roughly one more batter per nine innings than a right-handed pitcher who throws equally hard.
In fact, a lefty who throws 94 mph is akin to a right-handed pitcher throwing 96. Paxton's minor league numbers are underwhelming, equivalent to a 4.75 MLB ERA, but his "stuff" makes him worth monitoring.
lastname
10. Kevin Gausman, RHP | Baltimore Orioles
Look past the 5.66 ERA Gausman accrued over 47 2/3 innings split between starting and relief last year. Gausman's "stuff" insists that there's no limit to how good he might be, and his minor league numbers (the MLB equivalent of a 3.64 ERA) and his most granular MLB numbers (a 3.68 xxFIP) both suggest that he's a high-quality pitcher already.
Gausman has as good of a chance as anyone to be this year's Jose Fernandez, and should be considered one of favorites for the Rookie of the Year award.
Honorable mentions: Taijuan Walker, Carlos Martinez, Gerrit Cole and Garrett Richards.
Rumors.
Duffy to the bullpen in KC?
March, 18, 2014
MAR 18
9:01
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
We have a winner in the competition for the job of fifth starter in Kansas City -- Yordano Ventura was declared the winner over Danny Duffy.
After Ventura threw six scoreless innings against the Rangers, Monday’s announcement was not a major surprise. But manager Ned Yost threw a bit of a curveball on what to do with Duffy, writes Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star.
It was originally believed that Duffy would best serve the club as a starter at Triple-A Omaha if he could not crack the big league rotation. But Yost now says Duffy will compete for the final spot in the big-league bullpen, making his first relief appearance on Wednesday.
All 31 of Duffy's big league appearances have come as a starter.
Francisley Bueno and Donnie Joseph look like the leading candidates for the final bullpen spot. They could end up being bumped by Duffy if he adapts well to a relief role.
Tags:Kansas City Royals, Danny Duffy
Hanrahan close to a deal?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
2:36
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Joel Hanrahan, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and will not be available until late in the spring, could sign with a team “fairly soon,” tweets Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com.
According to Rosenthal, Hanrahan “is up to 90-92 mph in workouts, which could put him line to for an incentive-laden deal. The righthander pitched just 7 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season before undergoing surgery in May.
Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reported last month that the Yankees were monitoring the former All-Star closer. The Yankees seem prepared to with David Robertson as their closer, but Hanrahan could provide some extra insurance.
Other teams are likely interested in a low-cost deal with Hanrahan, who is just 32 and has 100 career saves.
Tags:Joel Hanrahan
Cubs more open to dealing Samardzija?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
1:33
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET11COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Among the more valuable trade chips in the Chicago Cubs' rebuilding efforts is righthander Jeff Samardzija, a free agent after 2015 who could bring back some of the top-shelf prospects that Theo Epstein covet.
Epstein and his staff shopped Samardzija in the offseason, but could they be more likely to pull the trigger now that several legitimate playoff contenders are dealing with serious rotation issues?
The Atlanta Braves have seen Kris Medlen and Brandon Beach go down with significant injuries in the Grapefruit League, and there is “some buzz in the scouting community that (they) might have an interest in the former Notre Dame wide receiver,” writes Nick Cafardo in Sunday’s Boston Globe.
That sounds quite bold given the Braves signed free agent Ervin Santana last week and gave up a relatively high draft pick.
A more plausible option is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who may have lost Patrick Corbin for the season with a torn elbow ligament. The D-backs unsuccessfully pursed Samardzija over the winter before signing free agent Bronson Arroyo and could be more willing to deal. The price for Samardjiza, however, may have gone up as well.
Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com reports Samardzija will again be scouted by the D-backs.
According to Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com, the Cubs will try to trade Samadrzija, their Opening Day starter, if they can't sign him to a long-term deal.
Tags:Jeff Samardzija
Who backs up Flowers in Chicago?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
12:06
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Chicago White Sox manager Robin Ventura all but officially ordained Tyler Flowers as his No. 1 catcher on Sunday.
Flowers, who is hitting just .231 in Cactus League play, will open the season behind the plate Sunday "unless something drastically changes," which appears unlikely since neither of the remaining candidates -- Josh Phegly, Hector Gimenez, and Rule 5 pick Adrian Nieto – have made a compelling case.
Ventura would not name a frontrunner for the backup job, adding to the speculation that the White Sox might be looking to deal.
Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish recently cited a source as saying there's "lots of trade interest" in catcher Francisco Cervelli of the New York Yankees. Cotillo says the White Sox were among the many teams monitoring Cervelli.
Cervelli has never been a regular in parts of six big league seasons, and would make a nice complement to Flowers.
Tags:Tyler Flowers
Position battle: Rockies fifth starter
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
11:17
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Colorado Rockies have been forced to do some mixing and matching after likely Opening Day starter Jhoulys Chacin suffered a right shoulder strain that will likely land him on the disabled list. It also has opened up a race for the fifth and final spot in the rotation, and the race is down to two:
The candidates:
Jordan Lyles, age 23, throws right
Franklin Morales, age 28, throws left
Lyles: The righthander who came over from Houston in the Dexter Fowler deal had a chance to separate himself in the race Sunday, but couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. He was charged with three runs on five hits and walked two. The performance elavated Lyles' ERA from 1.13 to 2.92, but one very positive sign was seven groundouts, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
Morales: The 28-year-old, who owns a 3.97 ERA this spring, was used primarily out of the bullpen last season and struggled with his control (5.3 walks per nine innings).
Latest update: At the time of the deal with Houston, the Rockies thought Lyles needed more times in the minors after getting pounded with the Astros. But a strong spring training has the Rockies reconsidering their position, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
Current leader: While it still may be too close to call, Morales’ ability to work out of the bullpen could work against him. Lyles is viewed only as a starter, which gives him the edge if the numbers stay similar.
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Franklin Morales, Jordan Lyles
Could D-backs deal for a pitcher?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
10:06
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Arizona Diamondbacks got the worst possible news regarding Patrick Corbin, who could be lost for the season after an MRI revealed a tear to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow.
Corbin was scheduled to start on Opening Day in Australia against the Dodgers on Saturday, but will now get a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews. Left-hander Wade Miley will start the opener.
Candidates for the open spot in the rotation include top prospect Archie Bradley, Randall Delgado or Josh Collmenter. The injury to Corbin increases the likelihood Bradley will play a “significant role” for the D-backs this season, writes our Buster Olney.
Both Delgado and Collmenter would have to be moved from bullpen roles.
The Diamondbacks have playoff aspirations and could look to deal for another starting pitcher. John Harper of the New York Daily News asks if the D-backs might be willing to trade one of their shortstops, Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings, to the New York Mets for a young pitcher such as Rafael Montero.
The Mets are reluctantly prepared to open the season with Ruben Tejada a shortstop and have been linked all winter to free agent Stephen Drew.
The odds of any deal with the Mets, however, seem far less likely after scheduled Opening Day starter Jon Niese left Sunday’s outing with elbow discomfort and could start the season on the disabled list.
The D-backs were very interested in Cubs righthander Jeff Samardzija during the offseason, and those talks could easily be renewed.
March, 18, 2014
MAR 18
9:01
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
We have a winner in the competition for the job of fifth starter in Kansas City -- Yordano Ventura was declared the winner over Danny Duffy.
After Ventura threw six scoreless innings against the Rangers, Monday’s announcement was not a major surprise. But manager Ned Yost threw a bit of a curveball on what to do with Duffy, writes Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star.
It was originally believed that Duffy would best serve the club as a starter at Triple-A Omaha if he could not crack the big league rotation. But Yost now says Duffy will compete for the final spot in the big-league bullpen, making his first relief appearance on Wednesday.
All 31 of Duffy's big league appearances have come as a starter.
Francisley Bueno and Donnie Joseph look like the leading candidates for the final bullpen spot. They could end up being bumped by Duffy if he adapts well to a relief role.
Tags:Kansas City Royals, Danny Duffy
Hanrahan close to a deal?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
2:36
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Joel Hanrahan, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and will not be available until late in the spring, could sign with a team “fairly soon,” tweets Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com.
According to Rosenthal, Hanrahan “is up to 90-92 mph in workouts, which could put him line to for an incentive-laden deal. The righthander pitched just 7 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season before undergoing surgery in May.
Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reported last month that the Yankees were monitoring the former All-Star closer. The Yankees seem prepared to with David Robertson as their closer, but Hanrahan could provide some extra insurance.
Other teams are likely interested in a low-cost deal with Hanrahan, who is just 32 and has 100 career saves.
Tags:Joel Hanrahan
Cubs more open to dealing Samardzija?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
1:33
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET11COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Among the more valuable trade chips in the Chicago Cubs' rebuilding efforts is righthander Jeff Samardzija, a free agent after 2015 who could bring back some of the top-shelf prospects that Theo Epstein covet.
Epstein and his staff shopped Samardzija in the offseason, but could they be more likely to pull the trigger now that several legitimate playoff contenders are dealing with serious rotation issues?
The Atlanta Braves have seen Kris Medlen and Brandon Beach go down with significant injuries in the Grapefruit League, and there is “some buzz in the scouting community that (they) might have an interest in the former Notre Dame wide receiver,” writes Nick Cafardo in Sunday’s Boston Globe.
That sounds quite bold given the Braves signed free agent Ervin Santana last week and gave up a relatively high draft pick.
A more plausible option is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who may have lost Patrick Corbin for the season with a torn elbow ligament. The D-backs unsuccessfully pursed Samardzija over the winter before signing free agent Bronson Arroyo and could be more willing to deal. The price for Samardjiza, however, may have gone up as well.
Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com reports Samardzija will again be scouted by the D-backs.
According to Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com, the Cubs will try to trade Samadrzija, their Opening Day starter, if they can't sign him to a long-term deal.
Tags:Jeff Samardzija
Who backs up Flowers in Chicago?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
12:06
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Chicago White Sox manager Robin Ventura all but officially ordained Tyler Flowers as his No. 1 catcher on Sunday.
Flowers, who is hitting just .231 in Cactus League play, will open the season behind the plate Sunday "unless something drastically changes," which appears unlikely since neither of the remaining candidates -- Josh Phegly, Hector Gimenez, and Rule 5 pick Adrian Nieto – have made a compelling case.
Ventura would not name a frontrunner for the backup job, adding to the speculation that the White Sox might be looking to deal.
Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish recently cited a source as saying there's "lots of trade interest" in catcher Francisco Cervelli of the New York Yankees. Cotillo says the White Sox were among the many teams monitoring Cervelli.
Cervelli has never been a regular in parts of six big league seasons, and would make a nice complement to Flowers.
Tags:Tyler Flowers
Position battle: Rockies fifth starter
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
11:17
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Colorado Rockies have been forced to do some mixing and matching after likely Opening Day starter Jhoulys Chacin suffered a right shoulder strain that will likely land him on the disabled list. It also has opened up a race for the fifth and final spot in the rotation, and the race is down to two:
The candidates:
Jordan Lyles, age 23, throws right
Franklin Morales, age 28, throws left
Lyles: The righthander who came over from Houston in the Dexter Fowler deal had a chance to separate himself in the race Sunday, but couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. He was charged with three runs on five hits and walked two. The performance elavated Lyles' ERA from 1.13 to 2.92, but one very positive sign was seven groundouts, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
Morales: The 28-year-old, who owns a 3.97 ERA this spring, was used primarily out of the bullpen last season and struggled with his control (5.3 walks per nine innings).
Latest update: At the time of the deal with Houston, the Rockies thought Lyles needed more times in the minors after getting pounded with the Astros. But a strong spring training has the Rockies reconsidering their position, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
Current leader: While it still may be too close to call, Morales’ ability to work out of the bullpen could work against him. Lyles is viewed only as a starter, which gives him the edge if the numbers stay similar.
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Franklin Morales, Jordan Lyles
Could D-backs deal for a pitcher?
March, 17, 2014
MAR 17
10:06
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Arizona Diamondbacks got the worst possible news regarding Patrick Corbin, who could be lost for the season after an MRI revealed a tear to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow.
Corbin was scheduled to start on Opening Day in Australia against the Dodgers on Saturday, but will now get a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews. Left-hander Wade Miley will start the opener.
Candidates for the open spot in the rotation include top prospect Archie Bradley, Randall Delgado or Josh Collmenter. The injury to Corbin increases the likelihood Bradley will play a “significant role” for the D-backs this season, writes our Buster Olney.
Both Delgado and Collmenter would have to be moved from bullpen roles.
The Diamondbacks have playoff aspirations and could look to deal for another starting pitcher. John Harper of the New York Daily News asks if the D-backs might be willing to trade one of their shortstops, Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings, to the New York Mets for a young pitcher such as Rafael Montero.
The Mets are reluctantly prepared to open the season with Ruben Tejada a shortstop and have been linked all winter to free agent Stephen Drew.
The odds of any deal with the Mets, however, seem far less likely after scheduled Opening Day starter Jon Niese left Sunday’s outing with elbow discomfort and could start the season on the disabled list.
The D-backs were very interested in Cubs righthander Jeff Samardzija during the offseason, and those talks could easily be renewed.
The Tigers Don’t Need Stephen Drew.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen several players with stalled markets become the beneficiary of an unexpected serious injury. Prince Fielder failed to generate interest at the price that he was asking until Victor Martinez blew out his knee and the Tigers suddenly had an opening in their line-up. Ervin Santana apparently wasn’t all that interested in playing in Baltimore or Toronto, so Kris Medlen‘s elbow problems led him to Atlanta. One team’s needs in November and December might not be the same as their needs in February or March, and while players who sign late generally get less money than players who sign early, needs can develop that increase demand for a player closer to Opening Day.
So, naturally, when news broke on Saturday that Jose Iglesias was going to miss at least four months and maybe the entire season, all eyes turned to Stephen Drew. He’s the only free agent SS of substance left on the market, a solid contributor who held down the position for the defending World Champs a year ago and would perhaps even be an upgrade over Iglesias for the 2014 season. Drew’s market has been essentially non-existent at the price that Scott Boras is asking for, but the Tigers make all kinds of sense for Drew.
They’re a contender with a sudden need for a shortstop, they pick towards the end of the first round, they’ve historically been willing to give up draft picks to sign free agents, and they’re a strong contender with a real shot at winning the World Series. Once Iglesias’ injury became known, the general assumption is that Drew would be in camp with the Tigers within a few days. Except the obvious fit isn’t such an obvious fit for Dave Dombrowski, who has reportedly suggested to local media that he will not pursue Drew as a replacement for Iglesias. And in this instance, I think he’s entirely correct: the Tigers do not need Stephen Drew.
This isn’t because I believe strongly in the value of Hernan Perez, Don Kelly, or Eugenio Suarez. The Tigers internal solutions for replacing Iglesias essentially define replacement level, as none of them should be expected to hit at all and none makes up for it with Iglesias-style defense. If pressed into action, they will look like utility players being asked to carry a load above their pay grade, and the Tigers will see a real drop-off in value at shortstop.
It isn’t a question of whether or not Drew is better than the Tigers’ existing options; he is, unquestionably. But adding Drew isn’t simply as easy as “he’s an upgrade, so let’s sign him”, because the marginal impact of adding Drew now versus waiting a few months to collect some information simply isn’t likely to move the Tigers odds of reaching the postseason much at all.
The math is the easy part. Drew projects as roughly a two win player for 2014, and would keep them around a forecast level of 90 wins, which is where they were pre-Iglesias injury; without either, they’re probably closer to an 88 win team. But the question the Tigers are asking isn’t really Drew versus full season performances of a replacement level player, or players. There’s no reason to think that signing Drew will be their only chance to upgrade the position this year, and even if teams aren’t selling shortstops before the All-Star break that often, the lost value between signing Drew now and waiting until the summer to evaluate their options is likely to cost them roughly one win.
At that point, they may still very well be able to sign Drew himself, and his cost of acquisition will come down once the draft pick compensation no longer attaches in mid-June. If the Tigers think that Boras is serious about holding Drew out until after the draft if he doesn’t get an offer to their liking, then it is quite possible that the Tigers could simply sign Drew for the final 3 1/2 months of the season without surrendering the 23rd pick in the draft, and the lost value that comes with not having him for April and May would be of little impact on the team’s overall expected record.
Or, other options may very well present themselves. The Tigers have not said that Iglesias is out for the year, and they should have a better understanding of his ability to return for the stretch run by mid-summer. If Iglesias’ legs heal, the need to acquire a full-time shortstop diminishes greatly, and they could simply turn towards acquiring a stop-gap type who would give them insurance in case Iglesias got hurt again. A guy like Cliff Pennington might be more useful than a guy like Drew if Iglesias looks like he could play again in 2014.
And even if Iglesias is out for the year, well, the Tigers still don’t really need Drew that badly. As we’ve noted before, no team has a larger cushion in their division than the Tigers in the AL Central; the Indians are projected as the second best AL Central team with an expected record of 83-79. The Royals, who are seen as an up-and-coming challenger, project as a .500 team, according to our calculations. Even knocking the Tigers down by a win or two, they’re still going to be the prohibitive favorites to win that division. The rest of their roster is so good that they can run away from Cleveland and Kansas City even with Hernan Perez starting at shortstop.
The Tigers shouldn’t go into August with Perez, Kelly, or Suarez as their regular SS for the stretch run, but not signing Drew now doesn’t mean that is the alternative. There will be shortstops available in trade this summer. Iglesias might be able to come back for the postseason. Drew could still be a free agent in a few months, only without the draft pick tax in place. The Tigers are not choosing between a full year of Drew and a full year of Scrubby McScrubberson. For right now, the choice is what they should pay for a shortstop for the next few months of the season. Given their cushion in the division and the limited marginal difference between a few months of an average player and a replacement level player, they can afford to sit around and collect more information.
It’s an unfortunate injury for Detroit, but they aren’t the Braves. They don’t need every last marginal upgrade in order to keep up with a team like Washington. The mediocrity of the AL Central gives them flexibility, and Dave Dombrowski is right to use it. If the kids can’t hack it, they can adjust, but there simply isn’t that much to lose by telling Drew that they may or may not have interest in a few months if he wants to wait until after the draft to sign.
So, naturally, when news broke on Saturday that Jose Iglesias was going to miss at least four months and maybe the entire season, all eyes turned to Stephen Drew. He’s the only free agent SS of substance left on the market, a solid contributor who held down the position for the defending World Champs a year ago and would perhaps even be an upgrade over Iglesias for the 2014 season. Drew’s market has been essentially non-existent at the price that Scott Boras is asking for, but the Tigers make all kinds of sense for Drew.
They’re a contender with a sudden need for a shortstop, they pick towards the end of the first round, they’ve historically been willing to give up draft picks to sign free agents, and they’re a strong contender with a real shot at winning the World Series. Once Iglesias’ injury became known, the general assumption is that Drew would be in camp with the Tigers within a few days. Except the obvious fit isn’t such an obvious fit for Dave Dombrowski, who has reportedly suggested to local media that he will not pursue Drew as a replacement for Iglesias. And in this instance, I think he’s entirely correct: the Tigers do not need Stephen Drew.
This isn’t because I believe strongly in the value of Hernan Perez, Don Kelly, or Eugenio Suarez. The Tigers internal solutions for replacing Iglesias essentially define replacement level, as none of them should be expected to hit at all and none makes up for it with Iglesias-style defense. If pressed into action, they will look like utility players being asked to carry a load above their pay grade, and the Tigers will see a real drop-off in value at shortstop.
It isn’t a question of whether or not Drew is better than the Tigers’ existing options; he is, unquestionably. But adding Drew isn’t simply as easy as “he’s an upgrade, so let’s sign him”, because the marginal impact of adding Drew now versus waiting a few months to collect some information simply isn’t likely to move the Tigers odds of reaching the postseason much at all.
The math is the easy part. Drew projects as roughly a two win player for 2014, and would keep them around a forecast level of 90 wins, which is where they were pre-Iglesias injury; without either, they’re probably closer to an 88 win team. But the question the Tigers are asking isn’t really Drew versus full season performances of a replacement level player, or players. There’s no reason to think that signing Drew will be their only chance to upgrade the position this year, and even if teams aren’t selling shortstops before the All-Star break that often, the lost value between signing Drew now and waiting until the summer to evaluate their options is likely to cost them roughly one win.
At that point, they may still very well be able to sign Drew himself, and his cost of acquisition will come down once the draft pick compensation no longer attaches in mid-June. If the Tigers think that Boras is serious about holding Drew out until after the draft if he doesn’t get an offer to their liking, then it is quite possible that the Tigers could simply sign Drew for the final 3 1/2 months of the season without surrendering the 23rd pick in the draft, and the lost value that comes with not having him for April and May would be of little impact on the team’s overall expected record.
Or, other options may very well present themselves. The Tigers have not said that Iglesias is out for the year, and they should have a better understanding of his ability to return for the stretch run by mid-summer. If Iglesias’ legs heal, the need to acquire a full-time shortstop diminishes greatly, and they could simply turn towards acquiring a stop-gap type who would give them insurance in case Iglesias got hurt again. A guy like Cliff Pennington might be more useful than a guy like Drew if Iglesias looks like he could play again in 2014.
And even if Iglesias is out for the year, well, the Tigers still don’t really need Drew that badly. As we’ve noted before, no team has a larger cushion in their division than the Tigers in the AL Central; the Indians are projected as the second best AL Central team with an expected record of 83-79. The Royals, who are seen as an up-and-coming challenger, project as a .500 team, according to our calculations. Even knocking the Tigers down by a win or two, they’re still going to be the prohibitive favorites to win that division. The rest of their roster is so good that they can run away from Cleveland and Kansas City even with Hernan Perez starting at shortstop.
The Tigers shouldn’t go into August with Perez, Kelly, or Suarez as their regular SS for the stretch run, but not signing Drew now doesn’t mean that is the alternative. There will be shortstops available in trade this summer. Iglesias might be able to come back for the postseason. Drew could still be a free agent in a few months, only without the draft pick tax in place. The Tigers are not choosing between a full year of Drew and a full year of Scrubby McScrubberson. For right now, the choice is what they should pay for a shortstop for the next few months of the season. Given their cushion in the division and the limited marginal difference between a few months of an average player and a replacement level player, they can afford to sit around and collect more information.
It’s an unfortunate injury for Detroit, but they aren’t the Braves. They don’t need every last marginal upgrade in order to keep up with a team like Washington. The mediocrity of the AL Central gives them flexibility, and Dave Dombrowski is right to use it. If the kids can’t hack it, they can adjust, but there simply isn’t that much to lose by telling Drew that they may or may not have interest in a few months if he wants to wait until after the draft to sign.
Pitching Through Pain Rarely Works Out Well.
Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin suffered a partial tear to his ulnar collateral ligament over the weekend, and will almost certainly require Tommy John surgery. Obviously, that’s a big blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes — and, as with Matt Harvey last year and Stephen Strasburg before that, just a huge downer to any baseball fan who enjoys watching talented young pitching — but we’ll get back to that in a second. What really caught my eye about Corbin’s injury was this quote from the MLB.com story:
Corbin said he had been feeling tightness in his forearm through much of the spring and during his Saturday start, but the pain went to a next level with the final three of his 91 pitches in Saturday’s game. He said he felt “a little shock” but no pop in his elbow those last few pitches, and he decided to shut it down.
“It was just the same tightness I kind of had the first three starts, but nothing out of the ordinary,” Corbin said
That’s because Mets lefty Jon Niese said something similar after leaving Sunday’s game with what is being termed “elbow discomfort”…
“I told them I felt fine, but obviously they don’t want to take any chances,” Niese said, noting that he first felt discomfort in his elbow during an intrasquad game last week, which was his first game action since a bout of shoulder pain in late February.
…as did Dodgers prospect Ross Stripling earlier this month…
He first noticed something was wrong with his elbow early in spring training after pitching to former minor league teammate Joc Pederson during batting practice.
Stripling said the competition got the best of him and after he threw a series of cutters to Pederson, he felt a tearing sensation. He continued to pitch but his elbow felt sore the rest of the week. After an MRI exam, the Dodgers’ medical staff said surgery was necessary.
…and A’s starter Jarrod Parker, who has the dreaded “visit to Dr. Andrews” on his calendar:
The early days of spring weren’t bad, but the more he threw, the more he had trouble getting comfortable or even throwing without pain.
He tried to pitch through it, hoping things would clear up, but on Thursday’s side session, both pitching coach Curt Young and manager Bob Melvin noticed his struggles. Melvin called him into his office, and it was then that Parker admitted the pain was back.
Notice a pattern there? When the human body is asked to do something that it’s perhaps not built to do — say, repeatedly throwing a baseball at a high velocity thousands of times — and there are already clear warning signs, continuing to perform that same activity generally only continues to add stress, until the stress reaches such a point that the body can’t take it any longer. Something breaks. Seasons end.
And those are just in the last few weeks. If you delve into previous years, there’s undoubtedly dozens, if not hundreds, of similar examples of pitchers attempting to push through pain, only to find that the outcome wasn’t a positive one. Tony Cingrani hid a back injury last season, eventually landing on the disabled list when it worsened, or as he put it, “I really couldn’t even stand up any more.” In 2006, Eric Gagne tried to pitch through pain, and after it became clear something was wrong during spring training, he admitted to it and found that the damage was such that the valuable portion of his career was essentially over at age 30.
You get it, of course, and we don’t know for sure that the teams weren’t aware of any of this (though Parker’s and Stripling’s seem to be clear that their clubs did not). Professional athletes are groomed to be “warriors,” to “play through the pain,” to “leave it all out on the field,” or whatever other description works best for you. No one wants to be injured. You want to play, right up until the point where it’s absolutely not possible for you to do so. Some don’t want to be seen as being weak or risk their standing in the clubhouse by appearing too often in the trainer’s room, as this excerpt from former major leaguer Dirk Hayhurst‘s most recent book shows all too well. For a younger player, there’s the worry that the chance in front of them is the only one they might get, which Rockies pitcher Franklin Morales all but admitted to in 2008, when he hid a back injury all season long. Morales didn’t end up causing himself further injury, but he did hurt himself in another way — after a nice 2007 debut, he pitched so poorly in 2008 while hurting that he ended up spending most of the season in Triple-A. For Daniel Hudson, he kept elbow discomfort to himself because he was weeks away from completing a long rehab from Tommy John and was eager to return; he’s now currently attempting to rehab his second elbow operation.
Intuitively, this makes sense. There’s obviously a certain amount of ego that goes into being a professional athlete, that belief that you are the best at what you do, that you are indestructible. And as any athlete will tell you, there’s rarely a time where you feel 100 percent — there is always some sort of ache to work through over a long season. Objectively, however, you wonder how some of these injuries might have played out had they been dealt with immediately. If Stripling, for example, had stopped pitching when he first felt soreness, perhaps he might not have blown out his elbow. If he hadn’t continued to pitch for the remainder of the week after feeling “a tearing sensation,” it probably wouldn’t have prevented the Tommy John — it’s pretty easy to assume the damage was done by that point — but maybe he would’t have had to undergo a preliminary elbow surgery just to prepare for the Tommy John, because since he still hasn’t had the zipper done yet, his 2014 season isn’t just gone, his 2015 outlook is in peril too.
This isn’t limited to pitchers — there are similar examples among position players — but with the recent spate of pitching injuries this spring, with Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, A.J. Griffin, and Joe Wieland all suffering serious arm trouble, we’ve been talking a lot about what can be done to keep pitchers healthier. Perhaps a good first step is attempting to improve the communication and the culture around being open with what a player is feeling internally. That certainly won’t solve every issue, because pitchers are always going to get hurt. Any pitch could be their last, and it doesn’t always come with a warning. But many do, and an atmosphere where it’s not necessarily seen as “weak” to disclose and report trouble might save arms in a way we could never really measure.
Back to Corbin, he hasn’t decided yet if he’ll have the surgery, and we also don’t know the exact sequence of events that he did or did not discuss with his training staff. But it definitely doesn’t sound promising for him, sadly, and with Bronson Arroyo having made only a single spring appearance while battling back trouble, this cascades down the Arizona rotation. Instead of having enough depth to send Archie Bradley to the minors to start the year, they now may need to rush him and start his clock. Instead of the 2-3 WAR Corbin was expected to provide, they now need Wade Miley to be more than he is, and to wonder if they’ll need to resort to Zeke Spruill or Bo Schultz or Alex Sanabia or Josh Collmenter in the rotation.
It’s bad for both Corbin and his Diamondbacks, who spent this winter in order to contend right now. The events of the last few days make that seem less likely. Mostly, it’s bad for baseball. No matter how you feel about Arizona, no one wants to see a pitcher coming off a breakout year go down, and with the number of injuries we’ve seen recently, it’s become more clear than ever that the next great breakthrough in baseball — the one that will be worth millions or even billions — will be the one that helps figure out how to preserve some of these arms. It’ll take work on both sides, though. The first step has to be honesty.
Corbin said he had been feeling tightness in his forearm through much of the spring and during his Saturday start, but the pain went to a next level with the final three of his 91 pitches in Saturday’s game. He said he felt “a little shock” but no pop in his elbow those last few pitches, and he decided to shut it down.
“It was just the same tightness I kind of had the first three starts, but nothing out of the ordinary,” Corbin said
That’s because Mets lefty Jon Niese said something similar after leaving Sunday’s game with what is being termed “elbow discomfort”…
“I told them I felt fine, but obviously they don’t want to take any chances,” Niese said, noting that he first felt discomfort in his elbow during an intrasquad game last week, which was his first game action since a bout of shoulder pain in late February.
…as did Dodgers prospect Ross Stripling earlier this month…
He first noticed something was wrong with his elbow early in spring training after pitching to former minor league teammate Joc Pederson during batting practice.
Stripling said the competition got the best of him and after he threw a series of cutters to Pederson, he felt a tearing sensation. He continued to pitch but his elbow felt sore the rest of the week. After an MRI exam, the Dodgers’ medical staff said surgery was necessary.
…and A’s starter Jarrod Parker, who has the dreaded “visit to Dr. Andrews” on his calendar:
The early days of spring weren’t bad, but the more he threw, the more he had trouble getting comfortable or even throwing without pain.
He tried to pitch through it, hoping things would clear up, but on Thursday’s side session, both pitching coach Curt Young and manager Bob Melvin noticed his struggles. Melvin called him into his office, and it was then that Parker admitted the pain was back.
Notice a pattern there? When the human body is asked to do something that it’s perhaps not built to do — say, repeatedly throwing a baseball at a high velocity thousands of times — and there are already clear warning signs, continuing to perform that same activity generally only continues to add stress, until the stress reaches such a point that the body can’t take it any longer. Something breaks. Seasons end.
And those are just in the last few weeks. If you delve into previous years, there’s undoubtedly dozens, if not hundreds, of similar examples of pitchers attempting to push through pain, only to find that the outcome wasn’t a positive one. Tony Cingrani hid a back injury last season, eventually landing on the disabled list when it worsened, or as he put it, “I really couldn’t even stand up any more.” In 2006, Eric Gagne tried to pitch through pain, and after it became clear something was wrong during spring training, he admitted to it and found that the damage was such that the valuable portion of his career was essentially over at age 30.
You get it, of course, and we don’t know for sure that the teams weren’t aware of any of this (though Parker’s and Stripling’s seem to be clear that their clubs did not). Professional athletes are groomed to be “warriors,” to “play through the pain,” to “leave it all out on the field,” or whatever other description works best for you. No one wants to be injured. You want to play, right up until the point where it’s absolutely not possible for you to do so. Some don’t want to be seen as being weak or risk their standing in the clubhouse by appearing too often in the trainer’s room, as this excerpt from former major leaguer Dirk Hayhurst‘s most recent book shows all too well. For a younger player, there’s the worry that the chance in front of them is the only one they might get, which Rockies pitcher Franklin Morales all but admitted to in 2008, when he hid a back injury all season long. Morales didn’t end up causing himself further injury, but he did hurt himself in another way — after a nice 2007 debut, he pitched so poorly in 2008 while hurting that he ended up spending most of the season in Triple-A. For Daniel Hudson, he kept elbow discomfort to himself because he was weeks away from completing a long rehab from Tommy John and was eager to return; he’s now currently attempting to rehab his second elbow operation.
Intuitively, this makes sense. There’s obviously a certain amount of ego that goes into being a professional athlete, that belief that you are the best at what you do, that you are indestructible. And as any athlete will tell you, there’s rarely a time where you feel 100 percent — there is always some sort of ache to work through over a long season. Objectively, however, you wonder how some of these injuries might have played out had they been dealt with immediately. If Stripling, for example, had stopped pitching when he first felt soreness, perhaps he might not have blown out his elbow. If he hadn’t continued to pitch for the remainder of the week after feeling “a tearing sensation,” it probably wouldn’t have prevented the Tommy John — it’s pretty easy to assume the damage was done by that point — but maybe he would’t have had to undergo a preliminary elbow surgery just to prepare for the Tommy John, because since he still hasn’t had the zipper done yet, his 2014 season isn’t just gone, his 2015 outlook is in peril too.
This isn’t limited to pitchers — there are similar examples among position players — but with the recent spate of pitching injuries this spring, with Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, A.J. Griffin, and Joe Wieland all suffering serious arm trouble, we’ve been talking a lot about what can be done to keep pitchers healthier. Perhaps a good first step is attempting to improve the communication and the culture around being open with what a player is feeling internally. That certainly won’t solve every issue, because pitchers are always going to get hurt. Any pitch could be their last, and it doesn’t always come with a warning. But many do, and an atmosphere where it’s not necessarily seen as “weak” to disclose and report trouble might save arms in a way we could never really measure.
Back to Corbin, he hasn’t decided yet if he’ll have the surgery, and we also don’t know the exact sequence of events that he did or did not discuss with his training staff. But it definitely doesn’t sound promising for him, sadly, and with Bronson Arroyo having made only a single spring appearance while battling back trouble, this cascades down the Arizona rotation. Instead of having enough depth to send Archie Bradley to the minors to start the year, they now may need to rush him and start his clock. Instead of the 2-3 WAR Corbin was expected to provide, they now need Wade Miley to be more than he is, and to wonder if they’ll need to resort to Zeke Spruill or Bo Schultz or Alex Sanabia or Josh Collmenter in the rotation.
It’s bad for both Corbin and his Diamondbacks, who spent this winter in order to contend right now. The events of the last few days make that seem less likely. Mostly, it’s bad for baseball. No matter how you feel about Arizona, no one wants to see a pitcher coming off a breakout year go down, and with the number of injuries we’ve seen recently, it’s become more clear than ever that the next great breakthrough in baseball — the one that will be worth millions or even billions — will be the one that helps figure out how to preserve some of these arms. It’ll take work on both sides, though. The first step has to be honesty.
Jimmy Rollins and the Incentives of Vesting Options.
The news out of Phillies camp this week is that Ryne Sandberg and Jimmy Rollins were not on the same page. Despite being healthy, Rollins wasn’t in the line-up for four straight games, and Sandberg went out of his way to praise Freddy Galvis‘ energy. Suddenly, a pretty cut and dried starter/backup depth chart seems to be not quite so cut and dried.
In the end, this may turn out to be nothing. Perhaps Sandberg is just trying to motivate Rollins by letting him know that he’s not guaranteed a spot in the line-up everyday. Perhaps he was just resting an aging player in meaningless spring training games. Perhaps the team just wanted to see if Galvis could hit big league pitching, and the only way to get him those at-bats in March is to let him play the first few innings. But because of the structure of Rollins’ contract, it isn’t too hard to see that this could also be the groundwork for ensuring that 2014 is his last year in Philadelphia.
After the 2011 season, Rollins signed a three year extension with the Phillies that included a vesting option for the 2015 season. That $11 million option becomes guaranteed if Rollins gets either 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 1,100 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014 combined. Because Rollins is a durable guy, he racked up 666 PAs last year, meaning he’s now just 434 PAs away from that option becoming a guaranteed salary. Given his health track record, it is very likely that option will vest, and the Phillies will be on the hook for an additional $11 million for next year as well.
Unless, of course, Rollins just finds himself out of the line-up on a regular basis, even if he’s healthy. The Phillies would vehemently deny that they would ever make playing time decisions based on preventing an option from vesting, of course, but teams still deny that they hold players down in the minors until after the service time windows pass to get a year towards free agency and Super Two arbitration status as well. The reality is that, whether anyone wants to admit it or not, the Phillies hold the power of deciding how much Rollins plays, and how much Rollins plays determines whether or not the Phillies have to pay him a salary that would likely be more than he could get on the open market for 2015. There’s a conflict there, even if team officials insist it doesn’t influence their decision.
And Rollins case is actually even a little trickier than just a traditional vesting option, because his contract stipulates that if the option does not vest, it converts into an $8 million team option or a $5 million player option. While $11 million for an aging Rollins might be a tough pill to swallow, an $8 million option for a player who can still start for most teams might actually be seen as a boon to his trade value. Or at least, it wouldn’t be a serious impediment, since even if an acquiring team didn’t want to pay the $8 million for 2015, his player option is only worth $5 million. It’s almost impossible to imagine that he’d be worth less than that on the open market, so if he falls short of 434 plate appearances, all the outcomes start to lean in favor of the team who controls his rights.
And there’s probably a pretty high likelihood that, come August, that team won’t be the Phillies. They’re unlikely contenders in 2014, and he’s the kind of guy that would be easiest to move and most desirable to other teams, given the short commitment and his ability to still play shortstop. In fact, if the Phillies anticipate trading Rollins at some point in 2014, not playing him everyday in the first half may do more to boost his trade value than letting him take the field.
If the Phillies made him share time with Galvis in the first half of the year, limiting him to a couple hundred plate appearances before the All-Star Break, then they could market Rollins as a potential regular for any team acquiring his services, since there would may not be enough time left in the season for Rollins’ option to vest, even if the new team returned him to his role as an everyday shortstop. In other words, the Phillies could depress his playing time in the first half to such a degree that they were essentially saving those plate appearances for any team looking to pick him up for the last two months of the season, while still keeping the option for 2015 from being guaranteed.
The Phillies can’t overtly put this plan into place. This is the kind of thing that would get the attention of the Players Association very quickly, and they’d be in for a legal fight if it was clear that they were benching Rollins for the primary purpose of keeping that option from vesting. But, with Galvis already getting praised for his energy and taking at-bats away from Rollins in spring training, the Phillies are creating a plausible scenario where Galvis could get starts at shortstop in the regular season without giving off the appearance that the decision has anything to do with contractual matters. And in reality, the gap between Rollins and Galvis isn’t so great that the Phillies wouldn’t be justified in giving the younger player a share of the at-bats.
Our depth charts projections give Rollins an expected .302 wOBA, while Galvis checks in at .281. Over the course of 600 plate appearances, a 20 point wOBA gap is about 10 runs. While Rollins has traditionally been a good defender, he is going to be 35 this year, and it’s not too difficult to make a case that Galvis is a better fielder at this point in their careers, and if Galvis is five runs better defensively than Rollins in 2014 — not a ridiculous assumption — then the gap between the two would be something like half a win over the entire season. In other words, transferring a few hundred PAs to Galvis from Rollins would likely have little tangible effect on the Phillies, and it’s not like they’d be intentionally making themselves much worse just to save a little money.
If the Phillies are as bad as our projections think, they’re likely going to be playing for the future by mid-May anyway, and a team that isn’t a likely contender shouldn’t be prioritizing fractions of a win over evaluating and developing future talent. Even putting the contract issues aside, the Phillies could be justified in playing Galvis over Rollins just because of their organizational place on the win curve. The contract issues just push the incentives even further in Galvis’ direction.
Of course, all of this will be denied, and the Phillies would say that no major league organization would ever let these factors influence their decision making. And maybe none of this ever materializes into anything, with Rollins going right back into the line-up and staying there all season. But it’s not crazy for the Phillies to want to play Freddy Galvis, especially because Rollins’ contract incentivizes them to do just that.
In the end, this may turn out to be nothing. Perhaps Sandberg is just trying to motivate Rollins by letting him know that he’s not guaranteed a spot in the line-up everyday. Perhaps he was just resting an aging player in meaningless spring training games. Perhaps the team just wanted to see if Galvis could hit big league pitching, and the only way to get him those at-bats in March is to let him play the first few innings. But because of the structure of Rollins’ contract, it isn’t too hard to see that this could also be the groundwork for ensuring that 2014 is his last year in Philadelphia.
After the 2011 season, Rollins signed a three year extension with the Phillies that included a vesting option for the 2015 season. That $11 million option becomes guaranteed if Rollins gets either 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 1,100 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014 combined. Because Rollins is a durable guy, he racked up 666 PAs last year, meaning he’s now just 434 PAs away from that option becoming a guaranteed salary. Given his health track record, it is very likely that option will vest, and the Phillies will be on the hook for an additional $11 million for next year as well.
Unless, of course, Rollins just finds himself out of the line-up on a regular basis, even if he’s healthy. The Phillies would vehemently deny that they would ever make playing time decisions based on preventing an option from vesting, of course, but teams still deny that they hold players down in the minors until after the service time windows pass to get a year towards free agency and Super Two arbitration status as well. The reality is that, whether anyone wants to admit it or not, the Phillies hold the power of deciding how much Rollins plays, and how much Rollins plays determines whether or not the Phillies have to pay him a salary that would likely be more than he could get on the open market for 2015. There’s a conflict there, even if team officials insist it doesn’t influence their decision.
And Rollins case is actually even a little trickier than just a traditional vesting option, because his contract stipulates that if the option does not vest, it converts into an $8 million team option or a $5 million player option. While $11 million for an aging Rollins might be a tough pill to swallow, an $8 million option for a player who can still start for most teams might actually be seen as a boon to his trade value. Or at least, it wouldn’t be a serious impediment, since even if an acquiring team didn’t want to pay the $8 million for 2015, his player option is only worth $5 million. It’s almost impossible to imagine that he’d be worth less than that on the open market, so if he falls short of 434 plate appearances, all the outcomes start to lean in favor of the team who controls his rights.
And there’s probably a pretty high likelihood that, come August, that team won’t be the Phillies. They’re unlikely contenders in 2014, and he’s the kind of guy that would be easiest to move and most desirable to other teams, given the short commitment and his ability to still play shortstop. In fact, if the Phillies anticipate trading Rollins at some point in 2014, not playing him everyday in the first half may do more to boost his trade value than letting him take the field.
If the Phillies made him share time with Galvis in the first half of the year, limiting him to a couple hundred plate appearances before the All-Star Break, then they could market Rollins as a potential regular for any team acquiring his services, since there would may not be enough time left in the season for Rollins’ option to vest, even if the new team returned him to his role as an everyday shortstop. In other words, the Phillies could depress his playing time in the first half to such a degree that they were essentially saving those plate appearances for any team looking to pick him up for the last two months of the season, while still keeping the option for 2015 from being guaranteed.
The Phillies can’t overtly put this plan into place. This is the kind of thing that would get the attention of the Players Association very quickly, and they’d be in for a legal fight if it was clear that they were benching Rollins for the primary purpose of keeping that option from vesting. But, with Galvis already getting praised for his energy and taking at-bats away from Rollins in spring training, the Phillies are creating a plausible scenario where Galvis could get starts at shortstop in the regular season without giving off the appearance that the decision has anything to do with contractual matters. And in reality, the gap between Rollins and Galvis isn’t so great that the Phillies wouldn’t be justified in giving the younger player a share of the at-bats.
Our depth charts projections give Rollins an expected .302 wOBA, while Galvis checks in at .281. Over the course of 600 plate appearances, a 20 point wOBA gap is about 10 runs. While Rollins has traditionally been a good defender, he is going to be 35 this year, and it’s not too difficult to make a case that Galvis is a better fielder at this point in their careers, and if Galvis is five runs better defensively than Rollins in 2014 — not a ridiculous assumption — then the gap between the two would be something like half a win over the entire season. In other words, transferring a few hundred PAs to Galvis from Rollins would likely have little tangible effect on the Phillies, and it’s not like they’d be intentionally making themselves much worse just to save a little money.
If the Phillies are as bad as our projections think, they’re likely going to be playing for the future by mid-May anyway, and a team that isn’t a likely contender shouldn’t be prioritizing fractions of a win over evaluating and developing future talent. Even putting the contract issues aside, the Phillies could be justified in playing Galvis over Rollins just because of their organizational place on the win curve. The contract issues just push the incentives even further in Galvis’ direction.
Of course, all of this will be denied, and the Phillies would say that no major league organization would ever let these factors influence their decision making. And maybe none of this ever materializes into anything, with Rollins going right back into the line-up and staying there all season. But it’s not crazy for the Phillies to want to play Freddy Galvis, especially because Rollins’ contract incentivizes them to do just that.
Brian Wilson Has Thought This Whole Thing Through.
Maybe you’ve seen the commercials and are tired of them. Maybe you didn’t like the gimp interview. Maybe you think the hair is ridiculous. That’s fine with Brian Wilson. There might be some ancillary benefits to the way he portrays himself on and off the field, but this is more about his work on the mound. Because, to him, the most important facet of pitching is confidence.
Take, for example, the knuckleball he threw the other day in a spring training game. Thanks to Grant Brisbee for the GIF:
I asked him if he was just screwing around. “I never [expletive] around, it’s an out pitch,” Wilson responded. That sort of seems ridiculous at first, given what you know about Wilson. It’s not.
You realize this a little more as you talk to him about his craft. Let’s say you talk about the cutter, which he’s gone to increasingly more often over the course of his career. It’s just the “opposite of a two-seamer,” the natural result of learning how to throw the ball “middle-finger dominant.” Does he throw it too much? “Is it any different than a lefty-handed specialist who comes in and throws slider after slider?” Wilson threw the cutter more than anyone not named Mariano Rivera last year, and he doesn’t have the platoon splits of a righty-only reliever. Does he do it with command? “Ask the hitters.” It’s confidence, is the sense you get.
Even with the knuckleball, the story is the same. He taught himself the knuckler — “everyone in this locker room has a knuckler” — and he’s not scared to throw it this year. “Why would you be scared? I don’t understand,” said the Dodgers reliever, “I’ve seen a lot of lot of home runs on 100 mph fastballs and a lot of people think that’s the best pitch on earth, I’ve seen Mariano give up runs and he’s got arguably the best pitch in the history of baseball.” Once again, there’s this lack of fear that’s pervasive in his image and his approach.
He’ll open up about it and specifically address the role of confidence, too. “If you’re not positive when you pitch, it doesn’t matter” how good you are, he says. Pitching is simple to Wilson: “You just need to be more confident than the hitter.”
Watch batting practice, and you’ll see batters pop up pitches that are 60 mph heaters. Wilson also points out that there have been many pitchers in baseball that have had marginal talent and played a lot of years — “they were more intelligent than the hitter.” They had no fear. “Most of the time you fail, you had fear,” Wilson says. “I don’t know the percentage of preparation, skillset, training, diet, mindset,” go into baseball, he continues, “but I do know that you have to have a brain in order to pitch — you can do all the other stuff physically, but if you don’t have determination behind it, then all the mechanical stuff goes out the window.”
It’s not an act in the way that some might fear. It’s not all bravado designed to make fans gravitate towards him, or to sell books or products or whatever. Not in the immediate sense. No, it’s more that Wilson is showing the confidence that he believes necessary to his job. Listen to him talk about the need to eradicate “I hope” from your mental lexicon: “You’re going to give up a home run if you think about not giving up a home run.”
Brian Wilson is acting confidently because he believes in the power of positive thinking, in effect. And that’s not crazy at all. Players that approach competition as a challenge rather than a threat have shown to be more successful, and the authors of the Mental Game of Baseball would also approve of his confident approach. Think positively, act confidently, even if it comes with a crazy haircut.
Take, for example, the knuckleball he threw the other day in a spring training game. Thanks to Grant Brisbee for the GIF:
I asked him if he was just screwing around. “I never [expletive] around, it’s an out pitch,” Wilson responded. That sort of seems ridiculous at first, given what you know about Wilson. It’s not.
You realize this a little more as you talk to him about his craft. Let’s say you talk about the cutter, which he’s gone to increasingly more often over the course of his career. It’s just the “opposite of a two-seamer,” the natural result of learning how to throw the ball “middle-finger dominant.” Does he throw it too much? “Is it any different than a lefty-handed specialist who comes in and throws slider after slider?” Wilson threw the cutter more than anyone not named Mariano Rivera last year, and he doesn’t have the platoon splits of a righty-only reliever. Does he do it with command? “Ask the hitters.” It’s confidence, is the sense you get.
Even with the knuckleball, the story is the same. He taught himself the knuckler — “everyone in this locker room has a knuckler” — and he’s not scared to throw it this year. “Why would you be scared? I don’t understand,” said the Dodgers reliever, “I’ve seen a lot of lot of home runs on 100 mph fastballs and a lot of people think that’s the best pitch on earth, I’ve seen Mariano give up runs and he’s got arguably the best pitch in the history of baseball.” Once again, there’s this lack of fear that’s pervasive in his image and his approach.
He’ll open up about it and specifically address the role of confidence, too. “If you’re not positive when you pitch, it doesn’t matter” how good you are, he says. Pitching is simple to Wilson: “You just need to be more confident than the hitter.”
Watch batting practice, and you’ll see batters pop up pitches that are 60 mph heaters. Wilson also points out that there have been many pitchers in baseball that have had marginal talent and played a lot of years — “they were more intelligent than the hitter.” They had no fear. “Most of the time you fail, you had fear,” Wilson says. “I don’t know the percentage of preparation, skillset, training, diet, mindset,” go into baseball, he continues, “but I do know that you have to have a brain in order to pitch — you can do all the other stuff physically, but if you don’t have determination behind it, then all the mechanical stuff goes out the window.”
It’s not an act in the way that some might fear. It’s not all bravado designed to make fans gravitate towards him, or to sell books or products or whatever. Not in the immediate sense. No, it’s more that Wilson is showing the confidence that he believes necessary to his job. Listen to him talk about the need to eradicate “I hope” from your mental lexicon: “You’re going to give up a home run if you think about not giving up a home run.”
Brian Wilson is acting confidently because he believes in the power of positive thinking, in effect. And that’s not crazy at all. Players that approach competition as a challenge rather than a threat have shown to be more successful, and the authors of the Mental Game of Baseball would also approve of his confident approach. Think positively, act confidently, even if it comes with a crazy haircut.
Ranking the Minor League Systems by Impact: #1-15.
One of the many rites of the baseball offseason is the publication of minor league prospect and organizational rankings. It’s my turn to take a swipe at this process, and I’m going to take a little bit of a different tack. The organizations will be ranked from top to bottom, and a key word that you will see over and over again is “impact”. Each team’s inner core of impact prospects – those that project as likely above average major league regulars – will drive each team’s ranking, though the number of non-impact regulars and the system’s total number of viable future big leaguers will also play a role. Today, systems 1 through 15.
Below, each team will have a brief section, containing the following information:
- IMPACT – The number of impact prospects currently in the system, followed by their names in alpha order, with top-tier impact guys in ALL CAPS.
- Other 2013 Impact – A listing of other players on the team’s prior year impact prospect list, with the positive (in the majors) or negative (downgraded prospect status) reason they are no longer on the impact list.
- Strength/Weakness – Self explanatory
- Depth Ratio – The number of total viable MLB prospects in the organizations divided by the average number of viable prospects in a system.
- One I Like More – A prospect I like more than the industry consensus, and why.
- One I Like Less – A prospect I like less than the industry consensus, and why.
- Observation – One takeaway, big-picture thought on the organization at this moment in time.
A couple of words regarding the methodology used here – a combination of analytical and traditional scouting methods were utilized. A Top 10 or Top 30 organizational list approach can obscure the difference between very strong and very weak systems. Holding all players to the same age and performance thresholds enables one to more easily cut each system’s prospects into tiers. I have seen many of the players discussed below in person, but far from all of them. That’s where video, MILBtv, scouting reports and other forms of research come in. There’s also a healthy dose of gut feel. The older, professional players who never played in a team’s minor league system – the Masahiro Tanakas, the Jose Abreus, etc., were not included in this analysis. Enough of this……let’s get on with the rankings.
1 – Houston Astros
- IMPACT (
– RHP Mark Appel, SS CARLOS CORREA, 2B Delino DeShields, RHP Lance McCullers, RF DOMINGO SANTANA, 1B Jonathan Singleton, RHP Kyle Smith, CF George Springer
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Quality depth around the diamond, solid group of non-impact regular prospects, led by a group of RHPs fronted by Michael Feliz and Mike Foltynewicz, are right behind the impact guys. System is a bit light on quality LHP.
- Depth Ratio – 1.33
- One I Like More – Take your pick – Domingo Santana or Kyle Smith. Santana is a monster of a man who hit 25 HR and slugged .498 in the AA Texas League at age 20 last season. Very few positional prospects in the game can match that youth/production combo. Smith is not big at 5’11″, 175, but can really, really pitch. Plus curveball and command, and is very efficient. Will move fast, can max out as a #3 starter.
- One I Like Less – Foltynewicz. Though he can sit in the upper 90′s with his fastball, Foltynewicz has never truly dominated. The arrow is moving in the right direction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a move to the bullpen is eventually in store for the big righty.
- Observation – The Astros’ system is deepest at the top, and among the deepest in the middle and at the bottom. They’ve been flipping marginal big league talent for useful organizational pieces for a couple seasons now, and things are about to start paying off at the MLB level.
2 – Minnesota Twins
- IMPACT (7) – RHP Jose Berrios, CF BYRON BUXTON, RHP Stephen Gonsalves, 2B Eddie Rosario, 3B MIGUEL SANO, RHP Kohl Stewart, LHP Lewis Thorpe
- Other 2013 Impact – RF Oswaldo Arcia (MLB), RHP Kyle Gibson (MLB), RHP Trevor May (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Massive 1-2 punch of top-tier impact prospects in Buxton and Sano, who will miss 2014 after Tommy John surgery. Strong overall starting pitching depth. Beyond Buxton, limited OF depth.
- Depth Ratio – 0.93
- One I Like More – Gonsalves. Pitched only 28 IP after being drafted on the 4th round last season, but dominated older hitters in the Appalachian League in three starts there. Lots of physical projection at 6’5″, 195, and the now stuff is just fine. A potential breakthrough name for 2014.
- One I Like Less – RHP Alex Meyer – I like Meyer just fine, but hesitate to use the word “impact” to describe him. Is already 24, just reached AA last year, and has a lot of innings-building ahead of him before he can be relied upon in a big league rotation for a full season.
- Observation – Sano’s injury is a real bummer. The Buxton-Sano combo, when healthy, ranked ahead of Correa/Springer (HOU) and Javier Baez/Kris Bryant (CUB) among position player 1-2 punches. Position players are a little thin beyond the impact group, but watch out for 2B/SS Jorge Polanco, who has an advanced feel for hitting.
3 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- IMPACT ( – RHP Tyler Glasnow, SS Alen Hanson, RHP Luis Heredia, RHP Nick Kingham, C Reese McGuire, CF Austin Meadows, CF Gregory Polanco, RHP JAMESON TAILLON
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Gerrit Cole (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Plenty of up-the-middle talent, some of whom will eventually move to corners and maintain or even improve the Pirates’ already strong big league defense. System is a bit top-heavy, with a smaller than average number of projected regulars behind the impact group.
- Depth Ratio – 0.93
- One I Like More – CF Jacoby Jones – The 2013 3rd rounder didn’t hit much at all in his last two years at LSU, but the tools are there, both offensively and defensively, and the early returns with the bat (.311-.358-.459) were good in an admittedly small 61 at-bat sample.
- One I Like Less – Polanco. Going to tread very lightly here, as I really like Polanco. Though he did step up big in winter ball, Polanco’s bat has been quite uneven throughout his pro career, and it’s very difficult for me to place a stud-level bat descriptor on him. Very solid, impactful, Starling Marte-type player, but not the next Andrew McCutchen.
- Observation – Excellent depth at the top, so-so depth at the middle and bottom, less than both of the clubs ranked ahead of them. Watch out for CF Harold Ramirez, who presently sits on the cusp of the impact group.
4 – Chicago Cubs
- IMPACT (5) – SS Arismendy Alcantara, CF Albert Almora, SS JAVIER BAEZ, 3B KRIS BRYANT, RF Jorge Soler
- Other 2013 Impact – 1B Dan Vogelbach (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Massive impact on the way from core position player group. System has exceptional depth at 3B. Very limited LHP depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.13
- One I Like More – Alcantara. Would stand out in almost any other system, but is obscured by Baez, Bryant, even Starlin Castro at MLB level. Probably winds up at 2B if he remains a Cub, and can be a .300 hitter who fills up the scoresheet, a 30-10-15-20 SB guy.
- One I Like Less – RHP C.J. Edwards – As with Polanco, going with a guy I really like in this spot. Not going to argue with the stuff or the performance to date, but have him ranked on the cusp of “impact” simply because I question the frame (6’2″, 155) and durability over the long haul. Great draft by the Rangers, great acquisition by the Cubs, think his prospect stock has gotten just a bit speculative.
- Observation – Things are going to beginning getting an awful lot brighter in Wrigley Field, likely beginning in 2015. No other club has more offensive thump on the way, and the impact group is complemented by a deeper than average group of non-impact regulars.
5 – Boston Red Sox
- IMPACT (6) – 2B Mookie Betts, CF Jackie Bradley, SS XANDER BOGAERTS, 3B Garin Cecchini, LHP Henry Owens, RHP Allen Webster
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Strong position-player depth, particularly up the middle. Limited corner infield power options, though some of the middle guys, like Bogaerts, should eventually help out there.
- Depth Ratio – 0.98
- One I Like More – Cecchini – This guy is a perfect fit for Fenway Park, with a Wade Boggs-like overall offensive portfolio. Has a career line of .312-.417-.457, with almost as many walks as whiffs. One cannot emphasize enough how much the Green Monster can help a lefthanded hitter, turning lots of routine opposite-field fly balls into wall doubles.
- One I Like Less – C Blake Swihart – Another guy I like, but that I can’t call impact. I see a solid, everyday catcher who makes the trains run on time, not a star, though the arrows are moving in the right direction for the switch-hitter.
- Observation – The Red Sox could get more value from their impact group in 2014 than any club, with Bogaerts and Bradley projected as starters and Webster and even Owens potential pitching contributors by season’s end. Just beyond the core group, RHP Matt Barnes could have his number called sometime in 2014 as well.
6 – Texas Rangers
- IMPACT (3) – 3B JOEY GALLO, 2B ROUGNED ODOR, LF Nick Williams
- Other 2013 Impact = SS Hanser Alberto (non-impact future MLB regular), RHP Cody Buckel (injured), 3B Mike Olt (CUB; non-impact future MLB regular), 2B Jurickson Profar (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Deepest group of non-impact future MLB regulars in the game, fronted by C Jorge Alfaro. Superior middle infield depth, even with the graduation of Profar to the majors. System does lack a slam-dunk pitching ace.
- Depth Ratio – 1.22
- One I Like More – Gallo. Ultra-high risk, ultra-high reward, but useable power like this doesn’t come along often. Think Chris Davis.
- One I Like Less – SS Luis Sardinas – Like him, but not sold on his development with the bat. Has always been among the youngest at his level, probably needs to stick at AA for awhile – he doesn’t turn 21 until May – to see if he can ramp it up a notch.
- Observation – Likely the deepest stockpile of Latin American talent in the game, with many of them lurking just beneath the current impact group. If one or more of Alfaro, Sardinas, Alberto, 1B Ronald Guzman, RF Nomar Mazara or RF Jairo Beras raise their game, watch out.
7 – St. Louis Cardinals
- IMPACT (4) – LHP Tim ****ey, RHP Carlos Martinez, RF OSCAR TAVERAS, 2B Kolten Wong
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Shelby Miller (MLB), RHP Michael Wacha (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Extremely deep group of non-impact regulars behind the impact group. Superior pitching depth, quality group of outfielders. Limited corner infield depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.00
- One I Like More – ****ey. The 2012 3rd rounder is quickly dicing his way through the minors, posting a 125/18 K/BB ratio in 118 AA innings last season. A typically efficient Cardinal pitching prospect, he could arrive later this season and eventually settle in as a 3rd starter.
- One I Like Less – RF Stephen Piscotty – Another guy that I do like, but just don’t see as an impact guy. See as a hit-before-power non-profile corner OF, .275, 15 HR type.
- Observation – No one drafts college players better than the Cardinals do, and no one gets the most from their prospects’ talent. Never bet against these guys.
8 – San Diego Padres
- IMPACT (4) – LHP Max Fried, C Austin Hedges, RHP Burch Smith, RHP MATT WISLER
- Other 2013 Impact – 2B Jedd Gyorko (MLB), RHP Casey Kelly (Inj; non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – A very deep group of non-impact future MLB regulars, including Kelly, support the impact group. Starting pitching is very deep, a good thing, as an entire wave of pitching prospects was seemingly waylaid by Tommy John surgery. Corner infield options are limited.
- Depth Ratio – 1.07
- One I Like More – B.Smith. Though his overall performance in his major league debut was subpar, you have to love the K rate (46 in 36 IP). Big arm, strong frame, solid track record – he should be much more comfortable the second time around.
- One I Like Less – RF Rymer Liriano – Always loved the tools, but if anyone needed the year’s worth of at bats he lost to Tommy John surgery last season, it was Liriano. Tough to call him an impact guy at this point.
- Observation – Size of non-impact regular group stands out more than the quality and depth of the impact group. After a couple of years at or near the top of the heap, this system is starting to trend downward, and due to injuries, may never achieve its full promise.
9 – Kansas City Royals
- IMPACT (4) – RF Jorge Bonifacio, SS Raul Mondesi, RHP YORDANO VENTURA, RHP KYLE ZIMMER
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Kyle Smith (HOU), CF Bubba Starling (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Two high-end, near-ready MLB starting pitchers in Ventura and Zimmer is the clear greatest strength. The system is thin in catching – not a big deal with Salvador Perez in place – and lefthanded pitching.
- Depth Ratio – 0.87
- One I Like More – 3B Cheslor Cuthbert – Struggled in his first go-round in AA, but is still only 21 and possesses the all-around tools to be a regular major league 3B.
- One I Like Less – 3B Hunter Dozier – Liked the budget-saver pick of Dozier at 8th overall that enabled them to afford LHP Sean Manaea later, but Dozier himself is not an impact prospect. Posted a .303-.403-.509 line in the Pioneer League last season, but there’s some serious altitude there.
- Observation – The system has fallen from its heady peak, back in the Wil Myers era, and will fall quite a bit further once Ventura and Zimmer are entrenched in the big leagues. Their continuing ability to identify and develop under-the-radar types such as RHP’s Miguel Almonte and Christian Binford will keep them from falling too far, however.
10 – Cleveland Indians
- IMPACT (2) – CF Clint Frazier, SS FRANCISCO LINDOR
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Trevor Bauer (non-impact future MLB regular), SS Dorssys Paulino (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – As always, the Indians are very deep in non-impact regular and niche roster filler talent, and a little short on the impact side. The presence of a transcendent talent like Lindor in itself makes this a Top 10 system. There’s plenty of catching, but limited starting pitching depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.29
- One I Like More – C Francisco Mejia – This switch-hitting catcher made big noise as a 17-year-old in his pro debut, batting .305-.348-.524 in a small sample. Has lots to learn behind the plate, but has a big arm and big power.
- One I Like Less – CF Tyler Naquin – His power has been slow to develop, and his defensive ability might not be good enough to stay in CF. Looking like a tweener/non-profile corner, hasn’t made the strides I thought he would out of college.
- Observation – Typical Indians’ system, with lots of volume, but below average impact. Francisco Lindor, however, is worth about eight or nine ranking slots all by himself.
11 – Seattle Mariners
- IMPACT (3) – LHP Luiz Gohara, 1B D.J. Peterson, RHP TAIJUAN WALKER
- Other 2013 Impact – SS Nick Franklin (MLB), LHP Danny Hultzen (Inj; non-impact future MLB regular), SS Brad Miller (MLB), C Mike Zunino (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – With the graduation of Franklin, Miller and Zunino to the big leagues, the impact position player talent has been pretty well cleaned out. There is a larger than average group of non-impact regulars still in place, led by LHP James Paxton, who just misses the impact cutoff because of his uneven performance record.
- Depth Ratio – 1.24
- One I Like More – RHP Carson Smith – It’s virtually impossible to elevate the baseball against this guy. He was a durable starter in college, and can be a valuable 2-IP relief option in the big leagues before long.
- One I Like Less – RF Austin Wilson – The Mariners essentially hitched their 2013 draft to Peterson and Wilson by going way over slot for the Stanford outfielder. The physical tools are undeniable, but he has never really hit, and has a massive popup tendency. His chances of reaching his ceiling are small.
- Observation – System has been thinned by promotions to MLB, a good thing, though some of them have been premature, a not so good thing. The minor league reloading process has been a bit slow at the lower levels, so the recent system decline could become a trend.
12 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Zach Lee, CF Joc Pederson, SS Corey Seager, LHP JULIO URIAS
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Lots of pitching depth is bubbling just beneath the impact group, lefties and righties, starters and relievers. Behind Seager, infield depth is very limited.
- Depth Ratio – 1.13
- One I Like More – Urias. He pitched in a full-season league at age 16, and excelled. Needs to get stretched out, stay healthy, and continue to improve in all facets, but is one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
- One I Like Less – RHP Chris Withrow – Had stagnated, going from arguably the Dodgers’ top prospect to a 3-plus year veteran of AA Chattanooga, before breaking out last season. Expect the pendulum to swing back the other way in 2014, though he still should be an effective 6th-7th inning type for the Dodgers.
- Observation – System has made great strides in the last couple of years thanks both to shrewd selections throughout the draft and some solid Latin American signings. Though the Dodgers’ financial might at the major league level captures the headlines, their farm system is also on a positive trajectory.
13 – New York Mets
- IMPACT (3) – C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Rafael Montero, RHP NOAH SYNDERGAARD
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Zack Wheeler (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Small, but very solid impact group is a strength, and 1B Dominic Smith is right behind them. Overall OF pickings are pretty slim, as is starting pitching depth behind the two impact guys.
- Depth Ratio – 1.02
- One I Like More – RF Cesar Puello – Betting that he’ll remain productive after a 50-game PED suspension. There is serious power/speed potential here.
- One I Like Less – SS Gavin Cecchini – Don’t like him nearly as much as brother Garin. Has been very ordinary in two rookie ball seasons to date. Below average power and speed, limited physical projection – I’m not seeing the impact.
- Observation – Solid depth at the lower end of the system, one of the game’s pitching prospects in Syndergaard, and an immediate regular MLB catcher with bat potential is just enough to sneak the Mets into the top half of the rankings. Could drop a ways next year.
14 – Baltimore Orioles
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Dylan Bundy, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Hunter Harvey, RHP Eduardo Rodriguez
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Obvious strength is high-end starting pitching; obvious weakness is almost total absence of high-end offensive potential.
- Depth Ratio – 1.00
- One I Like More – C Chance Sisco – It’s only 102 rookie ball at-bats, but for an 18-year-old to bat .363-.468-.451 at any position is a big deal. For a lefthanded-hitting catcher, it’s an even bigger deal.
- One I Like Less – LHP Tim Berry – Can’t get too worked up by a 22-year-old putting up below league average numbers and peripherals in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League. He’s a prospect, but not a major one.
- Observation – As usual, the O’s system is top-heavy, but each of those four impact pitchers is extremely interesting. Harvey’s 2013 was scintillating – he could turn out to be one of the single best selections in last year’s draft.
15 – Colorado Rockies
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Eddie Butler, RHP Jonathan Gray, SS Rosell Herrera, C Tom Murphy
- Other 2013 Impact – CF David Dahl (non-impact MLB regular), SS Trevor Story (non-impact MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Biggest strength are the two impact starting pitcher prospects who could come very quickly. Overall organizational depth is below average, especially the pitching behind those two and RHP Chad Bettis. Middle infield depth is solid.
- Depth Ratio – 0.87
- One I Like More – 3B Ryan McMahon – Not a clear choice here. I do like McMahon a little more than the industry consensus – his very impressive pro debut (.321-.402-.583 in the Pioneer League) at age 18 marks him as a potential future impact guy.
- One I Like Less – Story. His rough 2013 batting line – .233-.305-.394 with 183 K’s – is bad enough, but considering that he posted it in the hitter-friendly California League, it looks even worse. He’ll play 2014 at age 21, so there’s still hope.
- Observation – The Rockies certainly appear to now have a cohesive organizational pitching strategy, with a rotation full of ground ball guys in place at the major league level, and two potentially superior talents on the way in Butler and Gray.
Below, each team will have a brief section, containing the following information:
- IMPACT – The number of impact prospects currently in the system, followed by their names in alpha order, with top-tier impact guys in ALL CAPS.
- Other 2013 Impact – A listing of other players on the team’s prior year impact prospect list, with the positive (in the majors) or negative (downgraded prospect status) reason they are no longer on the impact list.
- Strength/Weakness – Self explanatory
- Depth Ratio – The number of total viable MLB prospects in the organizations divided by the average number of viable prospects in a system.
- One I Like More – A prospect I like more than the industry consensus, and why.
- One I Like Less – A prospect I like less than the industry consensus, and why.
- Observation – One takeaway, big-picture thought on the organization at this moment in time.
A couple of words regarding the methodology used here – a combination of analytical and traditional scouting methods were utilized. A Top 10 or Top 30 organizational list approach can obscure the difference between very strong and very weak systems. Holding all players to the same age and performance thresholds enables one to more easily cut each system’s prospects into tiers. I have seen many of the players discussed below in person, but far from all of them. That’s where video, MILBtv, scouting reports and other forms of research come in. There’s also a healthy dose of gut feel. The older, professional players who never played in a team’s minor league system – the Masahiro Tanakas, the Jose Abreus, etc., were not included in this analysis. Enough of this……let’s get on with the rankings.
1 – Houston Astros
- IMPACT (
– RHP Mark Appel, SS CARLOS CORREA, 2B Delino DeShields, RHP Lance McCullers, RF DOMINGO SANTANA, 1B Jonathan Singleton, RHP Kyle Smith, CF George Springer- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Quality depth around the diamond, solid group of non-impact regular prospects, led by a group of RHPs fronted by Michael Feliz and Mike Foltynewicz, are right behind the impact guys. System is a bit light on quality LHP.
- Depth Ratio – 1.33
- One I Like More – Take your pick – Domingo Santana or Kyle Smith. Santana is a monster of a man who hit 25 HR and slugged .498 in the AA Texas League at age 20 last season. Very few positional prospects in the game can match that youth/production combo. Smith is not big at 5’11″, 175, but can really, really pitch. Plus curveball and command, and is very efficient. Will move fast, can max out as a #3 starter.
- One I Like Less – Foltynewicz. Though he can sit in the upper 90′s with his fastball, Foltynewicz has never truly dominated. The arrow is moving in the right direction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a move to the bullpen is eventually in store for the big righty.
- Observation – The Astros’ system is deepest at the top, and among the deepest in the middle and at the bottom. They’ve been flipping marginal big league talent for useful organizational pieces for a couple seasons now, and things are about to start paying off at the MLB level.
2 – Minnesota Twins
- IMPACT (7) – RHP Jose Berrios, CF BYRON BUXTON, RHP Stephen Gonsalves, 2B Eddie Rosario, 3B MIGUEL SANO, RHP Kohl Stewart, LHP Lewis Thorpe
- Other 2013 Impact – RF Oswaldo Arcia (MLB), RHP Kyle Gibson (MLB), RHP Trevor May (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Massive 1-2 punch of top-tier impact prospects in Buxton and Sano, who will miss 2014 after Tommy John surgery. Strong overall starting pitching depth. Beyond Buxton, limited OF depth.
- Depth Ratio – 0.93
- One I Like More – Gonsalves. Pitched only 28 IP after being drafted on the 4th round last season, but dominated older hitters in the Appalachian League in three starts there. Lots of physical projection at 6’5″, 195, and the now stuff is just fine. A potential breakthrough name for 2014.
- One I Like Less – RHP Alex Meyer – I like Meyer just fine, but hesitate to use the word “impact” to describe him. Is already 24, just reached AA last year, and has a lot of innings-building ahead of him before he can be relied upon in a big league rotation for a full season.
- Observation – Sano’s injury is a real bummer. The Buxton-Sano combo, when healthy, ranked ahead of Correa/Springer (HOU) and Javier Baez/Kris Bryant (CUB) among position player 1-2 punches. Position players are a little thin beyond the impact group, but watch out for 2B/SS Jorge Polanco, who has an advanced feel for hitting.
3 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- IMPACT (
– RHP Tyler Glasnow, SS Alen Hanson, RHP Luis Heredia, RHP Nick Kingham, C Reese McGuire, CF Austin Meadows, CF Gregory Polanco, RHP JAMESON TAILLON- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Gerrit Cole (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Plenty of up-the-middle talent, some of whom will eventually move to corners and maintain or even improve the Pirates’ already strong big league defense. System is a bit top-heavy, with a smaller than average number of projected regulars behind the impact group.
- Depth Ratio – 0.93
- One I Like More – CF Jacoby Jones – The 2013 3rd rounder didn’t hit much at all in his last two years at LSU, but the tools are there, both offensively and defensively, and the early returns with the bat (.311-.358-.459) were good in an admittedly small 61 at-bat sample.
- One I Like Less – Polanco. Going to tread very lightly here, as I really like Polanco. Though he did step up big in winter ball, Polanco’s bat has been quite uneven throughout his pro career, and it’s very difficult for me to place a stud-level bat descriptor on him. Very solid, impactful, Starling Marte-type player, but not the next Andrew McCutchen.
- Observation – Excellent depth at the top, so-so depth at the middle and bottom, less than both of the clubs ranked ahead of them. Watch out for CF Harold Ramirez, who presently sits on the cusp of the impact group.
4 – Chicago Cubs
- IMPACT (5) – SS Arismendy Alcantara, CF Albert Almora, SS JAVIER BAEZ, 3B KRIS BRYANT, RF Jorge Soler
- Other 2013 Impact – 1B Dan Vogelbach (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Massive impact on the way from core position player group. System has exceptional depth at 3B. Very limited LHP depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.13
- One I Like More – Alcantara. Would stand out in almost any other system, but is obscured by Baez, Bryant, even Starlin Castro at MLB level. Probably winds up at 2B if he remains a Cub, and can be a .300 hitter who fills up the scoresheet, a 30-10-15-20 SB guy.
- One I Like Less – RHP C.J. Edwards – As with Polanco, going with a guy I really like in this spot. Not going to argue with the stuff or the performance to date, but have him ranked on the cusp of “impact” simply because I question the frame (6’2″, 155) and durability over the long haul. Great draft by the Rangers, great acquisition by the Cubs, think his prospect stock has gotten just a bit speculative.
- Observation – Things are going to beginning getting an awful lot brighter in Wrigley Field, likely beginning in 2015. No other club has more offensive thump on the way, and the impact group is complemented by a deeper than average group of non-impact regulars.
5 – Boston Red Sox
- IMPACT (6) – 2B Mookie Betts, CF Jackie Bradley, SS XANDER BOGAERTS, 3B Garin Cecchini, LHP Henry Owens, RHP Allen Webster
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Strong position-player depth, particularly up the middle. Limited corner infield power options, though some of the middle guys, like Bogaerts, should eventually help out there.
- Depth Ratio – 0.98
- One I Like More – Cecchini – This guy is a perfect fit for Fenway Park, with a Wade Boggs-like overall offensive portfolio. Has a career line of .312-.417-.457, with almost as many walks as whiffs. One cannot emphasize enough how much the Green Monster can help a lefthanded hitter, turning lots of routine opposite-field fly balls into wall doubles.
- One I Like Less – C Blake Swihart – Another guy I like, but that I can’t call impact. I see a solid, everyday catcher who makes the trains run on time, not a star, though the arrows are moving in the right direction for the switch-hitter.
- Observation – The Red Sox could get more value from their impact group in 2014 than any club, with Bogaerts and Bradley projected as starters and Webster and even Owens potential pitching contributors by season’s end. Just beyond the core group, RHP Matt Barnes could have his number called sometime in 2014 as well.
6 – Texas Rangers
- IMPACT (3) – 3B JOEY GALLO, 2B ROUGNED ODOR, LF Nick Williams
- Other 2013 Impact = SS Hanser Alberto (non-impact future MLB regular), RHP Cody Buckel (injured), 3B Mike Olt (CUB; non-impact future MLB regular), 2B Jurickson Profar (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Deepest group of non-impact future MLB regulars in the game, fronted by C Jorge Alfaro. Superior middle infield depth, even with the graduation of Profar to the majors. System does lack a slam-dunk pitching ace.
- Depth Ratio – 1.22
- One I Like More – Gallo. Ultra-high risk, ultra-high reward, but useable power like this doesn’t come along often. Think Chris Davis.
- One I Like Less – SS Luis Sardinas – Like him, but not sold on his development with the bat. Has always been among the youngest at his level, probably needs to stick at AA for awhile – he doesn’t turn 21 until May – to see if he can ramp it up a notch.
- Observation – Likely the deepest stockpile of Latin American talent in the game, with many of them lurking just beneath the current impact group. If one or more of Alfaro, Sardinas, Alberto, 1B Ronald Guzman, RF Nomar Mazara or RF Jairo Beras raise their game, watch out.
7 – St. Louis Cardinals
- IMPACT (4) – LHP Tim ****ey, RHP Carlos Martinez, RF OSCAR TAVERAS, 2B Kolten Wong
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Shelby Miller (MLB), RHP Michael Wacha (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Extremely deep group of non-impact regulars behind the impact group. Superior pitching depth, quality group of outfielders. Limited corner infield depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.00
- One I Like More – ****ey. The 2012 3rd rounder is quickly dicing his way through the minors, posting a 125/18 K/BB ratio in 118 AA innings last season. A typically efficient Cardinal pitching prospect, he could arrive later this season and eventually settle in as a 3rd starter.
- One I Like Less – RF Stephen Piscotty – Another guy that I do like, but just don’t see as an impact guy. See as a hit-before-power non-profile corner OF, .275, 15 HR type.
- Observation – No one drafts college players better than the Cardinals do, and no one gets the most from their prospects’ talent. Never bet against these guys.
8 – San Diego Padres
- IMPACT (4) – LHP Max Fried, C Austin Hedges, RHP Burch Smith, RHP MATT WISLER
- Other 2013 Impact – 2B Jedd Gyorko (MLB), RHP Casey Kelly (Inj; non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – A very deep group of non-impact future MLB regulars, including Kelly, support the impact group. Starting pitching is very deep, a good thing, as an entire wave of pitching prospects was seemingly waylaid by Tommy John surgery. Corner infield options are limited.
- Depth Ratio – 1.07
- One I Like More – B.Smith. Though his overall performance in his major league debut was subpar, you have to love the K rate (46 in 36 IP). Big arm, strong frame, solid track record – he should be much more comfortable the second time around.
- One I Like Less – RF Rymer Liriano – Always loved the tools, but if anyone needed the year’s worth of at bats he lost to Tommy John surgery last season, it was Liriano. Tough to call him an impact guy at this point.
- Observation – Size of non-impact regular group stands out more than the quality and depth of the impact group. After a couple of years at or near the top of the heap, this system is starting to trend downward, and due to injuries, may never achieve its full promise.
9 – Kansas City Royals
- IMPACT (4) – RF Jorge Bonifacio, SS Raul Mondesi, RHP YORDANO VENTURA, RHP KYLE ZIMMER
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Kyle Smith (HOU), CF Bubba Starling (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Two high-end, near-ready MLB starting pitchers in Ventura and Zimmer is the clear greatest strength. The system is thin in catching – not a big deal with Salvador Perez in place – and lefthanded pitching.
- Depth Ratio – 0.87
- One I Like More – 3B Cheslor Cuthbert – Struggled in his first go-round in AA, but is still only 21 and possesses the all-around tools to be a regular major league 3B.
- One I Like Less – 3B Hunter Dozier – Liked the budget-saver pick of Dozier at 8th overall that enabled them to afford LHP Sean Manaea later, but Dozier himself is not an impact prospect. Posted a .303-.403-.509 line in the Pioneer League last season, but there’s some serious altitude there.
- Observation – The system has fallen from its heady peak, back in the Wil Myers era, and will fall quite a bit further once Ventura and Zimmer are entrenched in the big leagues. Their continuing ability to identify and develop under-the-radar types such as RHP’s Miguel Almonte and Christian Binford will keep them from falling too far, however.
10 – Cleveland Indians
- IMPACT (2) – CF Clint Frazier, SS FRANCISCO LINDOR
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Trevor Bauer (non-impact future MLB regular), SS Dorssys Paulino (non-impact future MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – As always, the Indians are very deep in non-impact regular and niche roster filler talent, and a little short on the impact side. The presence of a transcendent talent like Lindor in itself makes this a Top 10 system. There’s plenty of catching, but limited starting pitching depth.
- Depth Ratio – 1.29
- One I Like More – C Francisco Mejia – This switch-hitting catcher made big noise as a 17-year-old in his pro debut, batting .305-.348-.524 in a small sample. Has lots to learn behind the plate, but has a big arm and big power.
- One I Like Less – CF Tyler Naquin – His power has been slow to develop, and his defensive ability might not be good enough to stay in CF. Looking like a tweener/non-profile corner, hasn’t made the strides I thought he would out of college.
- Observation – Typical Indians’ system, with lots of volume, but below average impact. Francisco Lindor, however, is worth about eight or nine ranking slots all by himself.
11 – Seattle Mariners
- IMPACT (3) – LHP Luiz Gohara, 1B D.J. Peterson, RHP TAIJUAN WALKER
- Other 2013 Impact – SS Nick Franklin (MLB), LHP Danny Hultzen (Inj; non-impact future MLB regular), SS Brad Miller (MLB), C Mike Zunino (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – With the graduation of Franklin, Miller and Zunino to the big leagues, the impact position player talent has been pretty well cleaned out. There is a larger than average group of non-impact regulars still in place, led by LHP James Paxton, who just misses the impact cutoff because of his uneven performance record.
- Depth Ratio – 1.24
- One I Like More – RHP Carson Smith – It’s virtually impossible to elevate the baseball against this guy. He was a durable starter in college, and can be a valuable 2-IP relief option in the big leagues before long.
- One I Like Less – RF Austin Wilson – The Mariners essentially hitched their 2013 draft to Peterson and Wilson by going way over slot for the Stanford outfielder. The physical tools are undeniable, but he has never really hit, and has a massive popup tendency. His chances of reaching his ceiling are small.
- Observation – System has been thinned by promotions to MLB, a good thing, though some of them have been premature, a not so good thing. The minor league reloading process has been a bit slow at the lower levels, so the recent system decline could become a trend.
12 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Zach Lee, CF Joc Pederson, SS Corey Seager, LHP JULIO URIAS
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Lots of pitching depth is bubbling just beneath the impact group, lefties and righties, starters and relievers. Behind Seager, infield depth is very limited.
- Depth Ratio – 1.13
- One I Like More – Urias. He pitched in a full-season league at age 16, and excelled. Needs to get stretched out, stay healthy, and continue to improve in all facets, but is one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
- One I Like Less – RHP Chris Withrow – Had stagnated, going from arguably the Dodgers’ top prospect to a 3-plus year veteran of AA Chattanooga, before breaking out last season. Expect the pendulum to swing back the other way in 2014, though he still should be an effective 6th-7th inning type for the Dodgers.
- Observation – System has made great strides in the last couple of years thanks both to shrewd selections throughout the draft and some solid Latin American signings. Though the Dodgers’ financial might at the major league level captures the headlines, their farm system is also on a positive trajectory.
13 – New York Mets
- IMPACT (3) – C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Rafael Montero, RHP NOAH SYNDERGAARD
- Other 2013 Impact – RHP Zack Wheeler (MLB)
- Strength/Weakness – Small, but very solid impact group is a strength, and 1B Dominic Smith is right behind them. Overall OF pickings are pretty slim, as is starting pitching depth behind the two impact guys.
- Depth Ratio – 1.02
- One I Like More – RF Cesar Puello – Betting that he’ll remain productive after a 50-game PED suspension. There is serious power/speed potential here.
- One I Like Less – SS Gavin Cecchini – Don’t like him nearly as much as brother Garin. Has been very ordinary in two rookie ball seasons to date. Below average power and speed, limited physical projection – I’m not seeing the impact.
- Observation – Solid depth at the lower end of the system, one of the game’s pitching prospects in Syndergaard, and an immediate regular MLB catcher with bat potential is just enough to sneak the Mets into the top half of the rankings. Could drop a ways next year.
14 – Baltimore Orioles
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Dylan Bundy, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Hunter Harvey, RHP Eduardo Rodriguez
- Other 2013 Impact – None
- Strength/Weakness – Obvious strength is high-end starting pitching; obvious weakness is almost total absence of high-end offensive potential.
- Depth Ratio – 1.00
- One I Like More – C Chance Sisco – It’s only 102 rookie ball at-bats, but for an 18-year-old to bat .363-.468-.451 at any position is a big deal. For a lefthanded-hitting catcher, it’s an even bigger deal.
- One I Like Less – LHP Tim Berry – Can’t get too worked up by a 22-year-old putting up below league average numbers and peripherals in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League. He’s a prospect, but not a major one.
- Observation – As usual, the O’s system is top-heavy, but each of those four impact pitchers is extremely interesting. Harvey’s 2013 was scintillating – he could turn out to be one of the single best selections in last year’s draft.
15 – Colorado Rockies
- IMPACT (4) – RHP Eddie Butler, RHP Jonathan Gray, SS Rosell Herrera, C Tom Murphy
- Other 2013 Impact – CF David Dahl (non-impact MLB regular), SS Trevor Story (non-impact MLB regular)
- Strength/Weakness – Biggest strength are the two impact starting pitcher prospects who could come very quickly. Overall organizational depth is below average, especially the pitching behind those two and RHP Chad Bettis. Middle infield depth is solid.
- Depth Ratio – 0.87
- One I Like More – 3B Ryan McMahon – Not a clear choice here. I do like McMahon a little more than the industry consensus – his very impressive pro debut (.321-.402-.583 in the Pioneer League) at age 18 marks him as a potential future impact guy.
- One I Like Less – Story. His rough 2013 batting line – .233-.305-.394 with 183 K’s – is bad enough, but considering that he posted it in the hitter-friendly California League, it looks even worse. He’ll play 2014 at age 21, so there’s still hope.
- Observation – The Rockies certainly appear to now have a cohesive organizational pitching strategy, with a rotation full of ground ball guys in place at the major league level, and two potentially superior talents on the way in Butler and Gray.
- Jul 14, 2003
- 7,843
- 4,881
Any takers?
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
D-Bag Dog.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,596
- 2,149
I'll get one when I'm up there this summer.
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
26$ for a F-ing Stuffed Corn Dog :x
:x
Last edited:
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
I'd try that no doubt.
Just gotta take my talents out to Arizona to try it.
Just gotta take my talents out to Arizona to try it.
- Mar 4, 2013
- 1,596
- 495
Preach.
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,412
- 5,523
I'll have one while I watch the dodgers pee in their pool again
jewbacca
Banned
- Jan 27, 2013
- 3,349
- 508
- Jul 30, 2012
- 2,701
- 1,084
chapman struck in the face and they stopped the game...
- Jul 21, 2011
- 5,897
- 1,189
26$ for a F-ing Stuffed Corn Dog
Paid $14.50 for a water and a sandwich at Citi Field.
:x
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
@MLBONFOX: Good news. RT@m_sheldon: Chapman suffered laceration above left eye, Price said. Never lost consciousness and was talking, moving #reds
Scary ****.
Scary ****.
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
26$ for a F-ing Stuffed Corn Dog
Paid $14.50 for a water and a sandwich at Citi Field.
:x
I know how that feels :x I'm glad ATT Park has great places to eat around the ballpark
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
Scariest thing I have ever seen. Was sitting two rows from the field. That ball got on Chapman in a blink of the eye. Hope he is ok. Never heard a stadium so silent. Prayers are with Aroldis.
And poor Sal Perez. Was kneeling on the field the entire time medics were attending to Chapman. When the game was called and everyone walked off the field, Sal was walking slower than a 90 year old, crying his eyes out. Feel so bad for him.
And poor Sal Perez. Was kneeling on the field the entire time medics were attending to Chapman. When the game was called and everyone walked off the field, Sal was walking slower than a 90 year old, crying his eyes out. Feel so bad for him.
- Jul 21, 2011
- 5,897
- 1,189
Chapman suffered laceration above left eye, Price said. Never lost consciousness and was talking, moving #reds
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
Yeah, been reading all the tweets on my ride home from the stadium. Although tthats good to hear, unfortunately that doesnt mean he is in the clear yet.
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
That sound.
Was even more loud/sickening in person.
Was even more loud/sickening in person.
lightweight champion
Banned
- Jun 23, 2007
- 13,481
- 5,271
That sound :x
My prayers are with Chapman.
My prayers are with Chapman.
Yordano Ventura Profiles as a Reliever, Will Be a Starter.
Q&A: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles Pitcher.
Pick `Em: Arizona’s Shortstop Conundrum.
2014 Positional Power Rankings: Introduction.
2014 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher.
2014 Positional Power Rankings: First Base.
Nick Franklin as a Shortstop.
How the Best, Most Disciplined Hitting Prospects Have Fared.
The Most Interesting AL Contender: Boston Red Sox.
“Don’t judge a book by its cover” is the old adage — things that appear one way may, in fact, be another way. We are taught this as children in an effort to curb prejudice and stereotypes. We should get to know people before creating an opinion of them. But, in reality, we pre-judge all the time. We make hasty decisions using a less-than-optimal set of data dozens of times a day. If we didn’t nothing would get done.
I hate grocery shopping. This strikes me as odd since I love food so much, but buying it is something I loathe. The crowds, the lists, the doubling back to grab something you passed — it’s all terrible. So when I’m done shopping, I want to get out of there as soon as I can. And when I make my way to the checkout, I’m scanning to find the line that will get me out of the store the fastest. The length of the line has something to do with it, but there are other factors I’ve come to discover. If I line has an elderly woman in it, I try to avoid it since they are most likely to search for coupons and write a check. Solo parents attempting to herd multiple children while checking out tend to take some time. I look at the baggers — do they seem to be working at a normal pace, or are they lagging? Would it be quicker to do self-checkout and bag everything myself? All these thoughts and more flood my brain when I make it to the front of the store.
This is just one example of my weird neurosis, but everyone does some version of this every day in order to decrease time spent, increase enjoyment, or save money in some sort of task. It’s how we’re wired. It’s how we decide whether to take the highway or surface streets, what toothpaste to buy, and what movie to watch when perusing Netflix. We make assumptions based on appearances — plain and simple.
Yodrano Ventura has been making his way around the news cycle as of late. He’s just been named as a member of the Royals rotation to start the season. He’s 22 years old, has been considered one the Kansas City’s more promising prospects, and the dude throws gas. In fact, he threw the hardest pitch by a starter in 2013. As Sullivan points out in that piece, other pitchers can throw that hard, but none of them had done it as a starter. And this is where Ventura becomes a little bit of an enigma. He may be a starter, but he sure looks like a reliever.
The top three starters, as far as fastball velocity is concerned, in 2013 were Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Fernandez. They are listed at 6’4”, 6’4”, and 6’2”, respectively. Yordano Ventura comes in at 5’11”. In a random crowd of men, he’d be tall. On a pitchers mound, perhaps not as much. Teams like tall starting pitchers due to the downward angle they can create on pitches, and the extra distance to the plate their long arms and torsos provide. In 2013, the average height of any starting pitcher who started five games or more was 6’2.5”. That’s 3.5” taller than Ventura.
Yet Ventura can throw with gas like the big boys. He averages 97 and has reached 101 last season. The thing of it is, even though he’s small and throws fast pitches, it doesn’t look like he’s trying all that hard — he has “easy” velocity, like you’d expect from a taller pitcher.
The median height for any pitcher that averaged 97 MPH or more on his fastball was also 6’2.5”. Kelvin Herrera, Ventura’s teammate, was the only one in 2013 who was 5’11” or shorter and had the same fastball velocity. If you broaden the scope just 1 MPH to a 96 MPH range, Fernando Rodney, Craig Kimbrel, and Greg Holland get added to the mix. And that’s it. Short dudes who throw that kind of heat are in small supply. Short starters who throw that hard are even rarer, in that Ventura is the only one.
The reliever profile also extends to the fact that Ventura really only throws three pitches, and barely that. He relies heavily on the fastball – using it 75% of the time. He’ll mix in a curve here and there, but used his changeup very sparingly in 2013 — only 6.6% of the time. Certainly three starts is not a great sample size from which to profile pitch usage, but Marc Hulet has mentioned a below-average changeup in regards to Ventura, which would explain a lack of usage this past season. Here’s the heatmap of Ventura’s changeups to right-handers in 2013.
This is to say, he didn’t throw one. His change has a bit of a tail to it, as does his fastball, and it seems as if he prefered testing his changeup as an away pitch to lefties rather than an in pitch to righties. Over the course of 2014, as the book on Ventura grows, it seems fairly obvious that this will change.
Yordano Ventura is a starter. He has been for almost his entire pro career, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. While tall and lean are the trends for starters, there have certainly been some short ones. Pedro Martinez was short (by baseball standards), so was Greg Maddux, and I’m sure there have been non-Hall-of-Famers in that mix, too. But he’s still bucking the trend, at least by a handful of inches. He may look like a reliever, he may have the repertoire of a reliever, and the Royals are hoping his electric fastball can carry him as a starter, height be damned.
I hate grocery shopping. This strikes me as odd since I love food so much, but buying it is something I loathe. The crowds, the lists, the doubling back to grab something you passed — it’s all terrible. So when I’m done shopping, I want to get out of there as soon as I can. And when I make my way to the checkout, I’m scanning to find the line that will get me out of the store the fastest. The length of the line has something to do with it, but there are other factors I’ve come to discover. If I line has an elderly woman in it, I try to avoid it since they are most likely to search for coupons and write a check. Solo parents attempting to herd multiple children while checking out tend to take some time. I look at the baggers — do they seem to be working at a normal pace, or are they lagging? Would it be quicker to do self-checkout and bag everything myself? All these thoughts and more flood my brain when I make it to the front of the store.
This is just one example of my weird neurosis, but everyone does some version of this every day in order to decrease time spent, increase enjoyment, or save money in some sort of task. It’s how we’re wired. It’s how we decide whether to take the highway or surface streets, what toothpaste to buy, and what movie to watch when perusing Netflix. We make assumptions based on appearances — plain and simple.
Yodrano Ventura has been making his way around the news cycle as of late. He’s just been named as a member of the Royals rotation to start the season. He’s 22 years old, has been considered one the Kansas City’s more promising prospects, and the dude throws gas. In fact, he threw the hardest pitch by a starter in 2013. As Sullivan points out in that piece, other pitchers can throw that hard, but none of them had done it as a starter. And this is where Ventura becomes a little bit of an enigma. He may be a starter, but he sure looks like a reliever.
The top three starters, as far as fastball velocity is concerned, in 2013 were Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Fernandez. They are listed at 6’4”, 6’4”, and 6’2”, respectively. Yordano Ventura comes in at 5’11”. In a random crowd of men, he’d be tall. On a pitchers mound, perhaps not as much. Teams like tall starting pitchers due to the downward angle they can create on pitches, and the extra distance to the plate their long arms and torsos provide. In 2013, the average height of any starting pitcher who started five games or more was 6’2.5”. That’s 3.5” taller than Ventura.
Yet Ventura can throw with gas like the big boys. He averages 97 and has reached 101 last season. The thing of it is, even though he’s small and throws fast pitches, it doesn’t look like he’s trying all that hard — he has “easy” velocity, like you’d expect from a taller pitcher.
The median height for any pitcher that averaged 97 MPH or more on his fastball was also 6’2.5”. Kelvin Herrera, Ventura’s teammate, was the only one in 2013 who was 5’11” or shorter and had the same fastball velocity. If you broaden the scope just 1 MPH to a 96 MPH range, Fernando Rodney, Craig Kimbrel, and Greg Holland get added to the mix. And that’s it. Short dudes who throw that kind of heat are in small supply. Short starters who throw that hard are even rarer, in that Ventura is the only one.
The reliever profile also extends to the fact that Ventura really only throws three pitches, and barely that. He relies heavily on the fastball – using it 75% of the time. He’ll mix in a curve here and there, but used his changeup very sparingly in 2013 — only 6.6% of the time. Certainly three starts is not a great sample size from which to profile pitch usage, but Marc Hulet has mentioned a below-average changeup in regards to Ventura, which would explain a lack of usage this past season. Here’s the heatmap of Ventura’s changeups to right-handers in 2013.
This is to say, he didn’t throw one. His change has a bit of a tail to it, as does his fastball, and it seems as if he prefered testing his changeup as an away pitch to lefties rather than an in pitch to righties. Over the course of 2014, as the book on Ventura grows, it seems fairly obvious that this will change.
Yordano Ventura is a starter. He has been for almost his entire pro career, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. While tall and lean are the trends for starters, there have certainly been some short ones. Pedro Martinez was short (by baseball standards), so was Greg Maddux, and I’m sure there have been non-Hall-of-Famers in that mix, too. But he’s still bucking the trend, at least by a handful of inches. He may look like a reliever, he may have the repertoire of a reliever, and the Royals are hoping his electric fastball can carry him as a starter, height be damned.
Q&A: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles Pitcher.
Dylan Bundy is on his way back to being Dylan Bundy. That’s great news for the Orioles, as the 21-year-old right-hander was the game’s top pitching prospect heading into last season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June.
Bundy’s story is well-known. Drafted fourth overall in 2011, out of an Oklahoma high school, his work ethic and training regimen were front-page news. So was his mid-to-high-90s fastball. He made just 23 professional appearances before reaching Baltimore late in the 2012 season. One year ago this month, his elbow began to ache.
Bundy continues to progress. Exactly when he’ll be game-ready is unknown, but a mid-summer return seems likely. Bundy talked about his injury status, and how he approaches the game, just over one week ago.
——
Bundy on his rehab status: “I’m about 8.5 months out. You can’t pinpoint exactly when you’re going to be on the mound, or when you’re going to throw in a game. That’s pretty hard to determine, even if you don’t have any setbacks. But I’m up to 180 feet. Throwing good, arm feels great. Hopefully I’ll soon be moving on to the half mound, and then progressing to the full mound.
“I’m not throwing extremely hard like I did in the past, for stuff like long toss, but my arm feels good. It’s partly the team holding me back and also my arm strength not being where it was pre-injury. That takes time and you can’t really rush time. You have to wait for it. I don’t want to rush things by trying to throw too hard, and have do this whole thing all over again.”
On his current workout routine: “[Rehabbing], you do a lot more shoulder exercises you probably hadn’t done in the past. That’s true for me. I hadn’t done a lot of the exercises I’ve been doing since surgery. The throwing progression …I think it’s going great.
“As far as lifting, running, conditioning, sprinting — a lot of that hasn’t changed much, except I don’t do as much upper body. I kind of hold back as much as I can. I don’t want to get too tight in my upper body and cause a change in my arm angle, and have to… or I get sore in a different area in my upper body. I don’t go as heavy as I used to, and take it easy after a while.”
On long toss: “I’ve always been [into long toss], but never as much as Trevor Bauer. I maybe went out as far as him a couple of times, right before I got into the game, but never consistently. I don’t really know how much of an advocate I am now, relative to pre-injury. We’ll see how my arm reacts to long toss when I start throwing in games.
“Workout-wise, I think I was pretty solid. I don’t think I’d have changed any of that. I did do some things differently mechanically. That may have led to my surgery. I don’t really know.”
On mechanical changes: “We were trying to get my arm in a higher position. They say your arm needs to be at a certain angle when your foot makes contact, and mine was at a lower angle. We tried to change that a little bit. I got my hands moving… really, I just got away from the things I did in high school. I changed throughout the course of my first full minor league season. and I don’t think I should have.
“That’s the only thing I really regretted — changing those minor things my first year in pro ball. I should have stuck to what I did best. I should have just picked up a ball and thrown it. I’m a big believer in that; pick up a ball and throw it. If that’s how you throw, don’t change it.”
On his repertoire: “Right now, in my rehab progression — again, I’m only 8.5 months out — I’m just throwing four-seams. The other day I threw a couple two-seams just to change the grip. It’s still a fastball, you’re not doing anything with your arm or your wrist. We’re not going to start doing any curveballs, cutters, or changeups until I get on a full mound. That should be in about three or four weeks. When healthy, my repertoire is fastball, cutter, curveball and change.
“[In the minors] they had me really focus on my curveball and changeup. I didn’t have a decent changeup, because I didn’t throw one much in high school. I didn’t know when to throw it, or how to throw it, so we started working on it. We also worked on my curveball. We set aside my cutter while we did that.”
On arm speed and grips: “I don’t do the circle change. I kind of just widen my fingers like a fastball. On my fastball I keep my fingers closed, and on my changeup I widen them a little bit. There’s about an eight- or nine-MPH difference in velocity. Maybe seven.
“With my curveball, arm speed is the main thing. That’s how it is with every pitch. You don’t want to slow your arm down, or your body down, whether you‘re in the windup or out of the stretch. You want to keep everything like your fastball. The fastball is going to be your go-to pitch, so I try to throw everything with the same arm speed.
“I throw the same curveball I did in high school. I just get off to the side of the ball — the side of the horseshoe — and keep the same arm speed as my fastball. When my arm speed is the same, that‘s when I‘m at my best.”
On developing as a pitcher: “In low-A, I was throwing mainly fastballs and a couple of changeups every now and then. I was mostly just throwing the ball. In High-A, I needed to pitch a bit. Once I got to [Double-A] Bowie, I really had to pitch. I finally figured out how to learn some stuff, like reading batters better. When I got called up to the big leagues, I didn’t get to pitch a whole lot, because I came out of the bullpen and only got to face a couple batters.
“You can still say I’m a power pitcher. I consider myself one, but you don’t know how long you’re going to be a power pitcher. It depends on how your arm works and how your body responds. I’m learning more about my body, how I go about workouts, and how my arm is feeling.”
Bundy’s story is well-known. Drafted fourth overall in 2011, out of an Oklahoma high school, his work ethic and training regimen were front-page news. So was his mid-to-high-90s fastball. He made just 23 professional appearances before reaching Baltimore late in the 2012 season. One year ago this month, his elbow began to ache.
Bundy continues to progress. Exactly when he’ll be game-ready is unknown, but a mid-summer return seems likely. Bundy talked about his injury status, and how he approaches the game, just over one week ago.
——
Bundy on his rehab status: “I’m about 8.5 months out. You can’t pinpoint exactly when you’re going to be on the mound, or when you’re going to throw in a game. That’s pretty hard to determine, even if you don’t have any setbacks. But I’m up to 180 feet. Throwing good, arm feels great. Hopefully I’ll soon be moving on to the half mound, and then progressing to the full mound.
“I’m not throwing extremely hard like I did in the past, for stuff like long toss, but my arm feels good. It’s partly the team holding me back and also my arm strength not being where it was pre-injury. That takes time and you can’t really rush time. You have to wait for it. I don’t want to rush things by trying to throw too hard, and have do this whole thing all over again.”
On his current workout routine: “[Rehabbing], you do a lot more shoulder exercises you probably hadn’t done in the past. That’s true for me. I hadn’t done a lot of the exercises I’ve been doing since surgery. The throwing progression …I think it’s going great.
“As far as lifting, running, conditioning, sprinting — a lot of that hasn’t changed much, except I don’t do as much upper body. I kind of hold back as much as I can. I don’t want to get too tight in my upper body and cause a change in my arm angle, and have to… or I get sore in a different area in my upper body. I don’t go as heavy as I used to, and take it easy after a while.”
On long toss: “I’ve always been [into long toss], but never as much as Trevor Bauer. I maybe went out as far as him a couple of times, right before I got into the game, but never consistently. I don’t really know how much of an advocate I am now, relative to pre-injury. We’ll see how my arm reacts to long toss when I start throwing in games.
“Workout-wise, I think I was pretty solid. I don’t think I’d have changed any of that. I did do some things differently mechanically. That may have led to my surgery. I don’t really know.”
On mechanical changes: “We were trying to get my arm in a higher position. They say your arm needs to be at a certain angle when your foot makes contact, and mine was at a lower angle. We tried to change that a little bit. I got my hands moving… really, I just got away from the things I did in high school. I changed throughout the course of my first full minor league season. and I don’t think I should have.
“That’s the only thing I really regretted — changing those minor things my first year in pro ball. I should have stuck to what I did best. I should have just picked up a ball and thrown it. I’m a big believer in that; pick up a ball and throw it. If that’s how you throw, don’t change it.”
On his repertoire: “Right now, in my rehab progression — again, I’m only 8.5 months out — I’m just throwing four-seams. The other day I threw a couple two-seams just to change the grip. It’s still a fastball, you’re not doing anything with your arm or your wrist. We’re not going to start doing any curveballs, cutters, or changeups until I get on a full mound. That should be in about three or four weeks. When healthy, my repertoire is fastball, cutter, curveball and change.
“[In the minors] they had me really focus on my curveball and changeup. I didn’t have a decent changeup, because I didn’t throw one much in high school. I didn’t know when to throw it, or how to throw it, so we started working on it. We also worked on my curveball. We set aside my cutter while we did that.”
On arm speed and grips: “I don’t do the circle change. I kind of just widen my fingers like a fastball. On my fastball I keep my fingers closed, and on my changeup I widen them a little bit. There’s about an eight- or nine-MPH difference in velocity. Maybe seven.
“With my curveball, arm speed is the main thing. That’s how it is with every pitch. You don’t want to slow your arm down, or your body down, whether you‘re in the windup or out of the stretch. You want to keep everything like your fastball. The fastball is going to be your go-to pitch, so I try to throw everything with the same arm speed.
“I throw the same curveball I did in high school. I just get off to the side of the ball — the side of the horseshoe — and keep the same arm speed as my fastball. When my arm speed is the same, that‘s when I‘m at my best.”
On developing as a pitcher: “In low-A, I was throwing mainly fastballs and a couple of changeups every now and then. I was mostly just throwing the ball. In High-A, I needed to pitch a bit. Once I got to [Double-A] Bowie, I really had to pitch. I finally figured out how to learn some stuff, like reading batters better. When I got called up to the big leagues, I didn’t get to pitch a whole lot, because I came out of the bullpen and only got to face a couple batters.
“You can still say I’m a power pitcher. I consider myself one, but you don’t know how long you’re going to be a power pitcher. It depends on how your arm works and how your body responds. I’m learning more about my body, how I go about workouts, and how my arm is feeling.”
Pick `Em: Arizona’s Shortstop Conundrum.
There are some teams that wish they had more or better shortstops. With Jose Iglesias now missing an indeterminate amount of time in Detroit, the Tigers may now start Eugenio Suarez. Don’t feel bad if that name is new to you. The Twins and Marlins are poised to start pure fielders Pedro Florimon and Adeiny Hechavarria. The Mets have the never-ending Ruben Tejeda story, and that other New York team will start somebody who used to be Derek Jeter. At least the Yankees have Brendan Ryan in reserve; the rest of these teams lack viable backups beyond their own version of Suarez. On the other end of the spectrum are the Arizona Diamondbacks, which feature three or four viable shortstops.
This isn’t to say the Diamondbacks have an excellent situation at shortstop. Their options are well-defined, but our depth chart page ranks Arizona’s shortstops as the 24th best unit in baseball — immediately behind the Boras City Free Agents. What the D-backs do have is plenty of major-league depth, with Chris Owings, Didi Gregorius, Cliff Pennington and Nick Ahmed. The latter option is ticketed for the minors, but Owings, Gregorius and Pennington are in a race for playing time.
The fun part about this competition is we’ll get some insight into the organization’s preferences. There are clear choices for the club if they want a superior bat, glove or a combination of both. They could also punt a decision and platooning based on the starting pitcher or game state. Owings bats righty, Gregorius lefty and Pennington is a switch-hitter. Arizona can use any platoon imaginable.
Owings is the bat option. One insider I spoke with compared him to Michael Young — complete with a future move down the defensive spectrum. Young gave away about one or two wins per season when he started at shortstop, and my impression is Owings would be a little less damaging in 2014. I’m more interested in the bat comp, though. Young was a BABIP fiend, with a career .333 mark. He was especially good at finding a hittable pitch and barreling it up. Owings’ skill set at the plate looks remarkably similar, from plate discipline to quality of contact.
Gregorius is seen as the glove. Our defensive metrics haven’t exactly drooled over him, but scouts and players enjoy his work in the field. His bat showed some surprising pop last season, but nobody is ready to cry Jimmy Rollins. He projects to give away about a win with his bat in a full season. Owings sits right at league average. For the sake of argument, let’s say Gregorius is a win better in the field, which would mean both players are equal in overall value.
Option number three is Pennington. His past two seasons at the plate have been ugly, but back in 2011, he mixed a little bit of Owings’ high-contact game with a solid defensive reputation (UZR didn’t like him that year). If he can recover some of his bat, he would offer a little more glove than Owings and a little more bat than Gregorius. If you step away from the scouting reports and rely more on UZR, Pennington looks like the best defensive option.
We can argue all day about specific expectations. All three players have some range of possible outcomes from totally injured to a hypothetical 100th percentile performance. Let’s settle for saying Owings and Gregorius are about equal and both have value to the franchise. Pennington is maybe a couple hairs worse than the youngsters, and he’s also a short-term asset. The club has several options it can try.
Start Gregorius, bench Pennington and option Owings.
Start Owings, bench Pennington and option Gregorius.
Start Pennington and option either or both Owings and Gregorius.
Platoon Owings and Gregorius based on opposing pitcher-handedness.
Platoon Owings and Gregorius based on Diamondbacks’ pitcher ball-in-play tendencies.
Mix Pennington into either platoon scenario.
Make a trade.
Fail to commit to any obvious strategy.
Let’s first address the pros and cons of a platoon. The hitting platoon doesn’t appear warranted. Owings’ sample is too small, but he hit same-handed pitchers well. Gregorius has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, but it’s probably harmful to his development to isolate him from lefties at 24 years old. Pennington has hit better against righties than lefties in his career, but his year-by-year splits are all over the place. In short, only Gregorius looks like a classic platoon player, and he still has time to develop.
A platoon based on the Arizona pitcher that day makes more sense, except they all share a similar profile. The Diamondbacks will probably allow lots of balls in play now that Patrick Corbin is out for the season. Of the current projected rotation, Wade Miley is the strikeout champ at 17.4% of hitters. With Corbin and Archie Bradley in the rotation, Owings could be used with the strikeout guys while a defensive option is used for Miley, Cahill and McCarthy. As it stands, this platoon doesn’t really work.
Another disadvantage to the platoon is it can be hard for players to perform at peak efficiency. If Owings is only facing lefties, then there will be periods where he sits for most of a week. To get top value out of Owings, he needs to be sharp at the plate. Both players would probably develop more slowly with fewer at bats, which hurts the club’s long-term outlook.
Rather than run a platoon, the club could trade one of its prospects and count on Ahmed if the injury bug bites. I’ve seen this scenario proposed many times, but I don’t see the advantage to the Diamondbacks. Certainly, the team should make a deal if its getting a strong return. The issue is the club has no obvious hole that can be fixed by trading either shortstop. Additionally, both youngsters have the upside to be average or better players. Will they both reach that ceiling? Probably not. The club can easily hedge their bets by standing pat.
The worst choice would be to juggle all three players without any coherent, long-term plan. If the players don’t know what to expect day-to-day, then it could interfere with their performance and development a lot more than a simple platoon. That’s based on purely on theory, since individual outcomes are unpredictable.
That leaves three options that boil down to “pick one player and go.” If we’re right to presume all three players have a similar value in 2014, then it’s up to the Diamondbacks to decide what they prefer this year and into the future. Is it a glove, a bat or a little of both?
This isn’t to say the Diamondbacks have an excellent situation at shortstop. Their options are well-defined, but our depth chart page ranks Arizona’s shortstops as the 24th best unit in baseball — immediately behind the Boras City Free Agents. What the D-backs do have is plenty of major-league depth, with Chris Owings, Didi Gregorius, Cliff Pennington and Nick Ahmed. The latter option is ticketed for the minors, but Owings, Gregorius and Pennington are in a race for playing time.
The fun part about this competition is we’ll get some insight into the organization’s preferences. There are clear choices for the club if they want a superior bat, glove or a combination of both. They could also punt a decision and platooning based on the starting pitcher or game state. Owings bats righty, Gregorius lefty and Pennington is a switch-hitter. Arizona can use any platoon imaginable.
Owings is the bat option. One insider I spoke with compared him to Michael Young — complete with a future move down the defensive spectrum. Young gave away about one or two wins per season when he started at shortstop, and my impression is Owings would be a little less damaging in 2014. I’m more interested in the bat comp, though. Young was a BABIP fiend, with a career .333 mark. He was especially good at finding a hittable pitch and barreling it up. Owings’ skill set at the plate looks remarkably similar, from plate discipline to quality of contact.
Gregorius is seen as the glove. Our defensive metrics haven’t exactly drooled over him, but scouts and players enjoy his work in the field. His bat showed some surprising pop last season, but nobody is ready to cry Jimmy Rollins. He projects to give away about a win with his bat in a full season. Owings sits right at league average. For the sake of argument, let’s say Gregorius is a win better in the field, which would mean both players are equal in overall value.
Option number three is Pennington. His past two seasons at the plate have been ugly, but back in 2011, he mixed a little bit of Owings’ high-contact game with a solid defensive reputation (UZR didn’t like him that year). If he can recover some of his bat, he would offer a little more glove than Owings and a little more bat than Gregorius. If you step away from the scouting reports and rely more on UZR, Pennington looks like the best defensive option.
We can argue all day about specific expectations. All three players have some range of possible outcomes from totally injured to a hypothetical 100th percentile performance. Let’s settle for saying Owings and Gregorius are about equal and both have value to the franchise. Pennington is maybe a couple hairs worse than the youngsters, and he’s also a short-term asset. The club has several options it can try.
Start Gregorius, bench Pennington and option Owings.
Start Owings, bench Pennington and option Gregorius.
Start Pennington and option either or both Owings and Gregorius.
Platoon Owings and Gregorius based on opposing pitcher-handedness.
Platoon Owings and Gregorius based on Diamondbacks’ pitcher ball-in-play tendencies.
Mix Pennington into either platoon scenario.
Make a trade.
Fail to commit to any obvious strategy.
Let’s first address the pros and cons of a platoon. The hitting platoon doesn’t appear warranted. Owings’ sample is too small, but he hit same-handed pitchers well. Gregorius has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, but it’s probably harmful to his development to isolate him from lefties at 24 years old. Pennington has hit better against righties than lefties in his career, but his year-by-year splits are all over the place. In short, only Gregorius looks like a classic platoon player, and he still has time to develop.
A platoon based on the Arizona pitcher that day makes more sense, except they all share a similar profile. The Diamondbacks will probably allow lots of balls in play now that Patrick Corbin is out for the season. Of the current projected rotation, Wade Miley is the strikeout champ at 17.4% of hitters. With Corbin and Archie Bradley in the rotation, Owings could be used with the strikeout guys while a defensive option is used for Miley, Cahill and McCarthy. As it stands, this platoon doesn’t really work.
Another disadvantage to the platoon is it can be hard for players to perform at peak efficiency. If Owings is only facing lefties, then there will be periods where he sits for most of a week. To get top value out of Owings, he needs to be sharp at the plate. Both players would probably develop more slowly with fewer at bats, which hurts the club’s long-term outlook.
Rather than run a platoon, the club could trade one of its prospects and count on Ahmed if the injury bug bites. I’ve seen this scenario proposed many times, but I don’t see the advantage to the Diamondbacks. Certainly, the team should make a deal if its getting a strong return. The issue is the club has no obvious hole that can be fixed by trading either shortstop. Additionally, both youngsters have the upside to be average or better players. Will they both reach that ceiling? Probably not. The club can easily hedge their bets by standing pat.
The worst choice would be to juggle all three players without any coherent, long-term plan. If the players don’t know what to expect day-to-day, then it could interfere with their performance and development a lot more than a simple platoon. That’s based on purely on theory, since individual outcomes are unpredictable.
That leaves three options that boil down to “pick one player and go.” If we’re right to presume all three players have a similar value in 2014, then it’s up to the Diamondbacks to decide what they prefer this year and into the future. Is it a glove, a bat or a little of both?
2014 Positional Power Rankings: Introduction.
Over the last couple of years, we’ve previewed the upcoming season by going position by position around MLB, looking at the how teams stack up to their various competitors at each spot on the diamond. We’ve enjoyed doing these pieces, and we like that they provide an alternative to the team-by-team or division-by-division approach to other season previews. By starting at the position level, we can see exactly where a team’s strengths and weaknesses lie, and identify some areas of for potential upgrade as well.
Additionally, by not just focusing on the starter at each position, we’re able to compare and contrast different strategies for manning a particular position on the field. How will one team’s everyday player compare to a left/right platoon? Or is a team with a hot young prospect on the way up in line for a second half upgrade once the service time issues are out of the way? What teams have enough depth to sustain quality performance in case of an injury? These are the kinds of things we can readily identify through this series.
Keep in mind that this is a 2014 season preview series, so we are not taking into account any future value a player may produce, so even if a kid has a terrific future, players are only being judged based on what they are expected to produce this year. Those expectations come from our Depth Charts pages, which combine playing time forecasts based on manually updated rosters with a blend of the ZIPS and Steamer performance forecasts. Our depth charts include the most recent injury diagnoses and what we think we know about future playing time at present, though of course things will change as the season goes along. It’s always good to keep in mind that these are a snapshot of a point in time; things can and will change.
Also, it’s important to keep in mind that some players will have their value spread across multiple positions, so don’t freak out if you see a guy like Ben Zobrist listed with only +1 or +2 WAR at a specific position; his overall value is derived from accumulating value at several spots on the field, and none of these posts will reflect his entire value to the Rays. It should also be noted that multi-position players present a little bit of a challenge for this format, because ZIPS and Steamer forecast individual defensive ratings for a player’s expected primary position, not for every possible position on the field. So, for a player who will primarily play second base but also get some at-bats at shortstop, his defensive rating — it is listed as FLD in the data boxes — will be his expected value at second base, and his value will be slightly overstated when he plays shortstop, as his defensive performance at that position would be expected to be a bit worse.
This is a minor flaw in the system, and should serve as a reminder that these forecasts are certainly not perfect. This is an outline, not a precise calculation, and you shouldn’t worry too much about decimal point differences in rankings like this. Even if one team is forecast for +3.4 WAR and another is forecast for +3.0, there’s little actual difference there, and you certainly shouldn’t get too up in arms about a couple of places of ordinal rank if the overall forecast is essentially even. At some positions, there won’t be a big gap between the #10 and #20 teams, so try not to react too strongly to the number associated with a team’s placement. The value forecast is what you really care about, not so much a team’s rank within a position.
That said, there are different baseline forecasts for different positions. Catchers are projected to produce more value than left fielders, for instance, so the rankings also help to align things within a team’s comparison to its peers at that position. Knowing how your team stacks up against the competition at a given spot is helpful, and it’s one of the reasons we like the positional preview format.
For those interested in a schedule, we’re tentatively planning on rolling out two posts per day, with catchers and first baseman to follow a little later on today. We hope you enjoy the series as our way of leading up to Opening Day.
Additionally, by not just focusing on the starter at each position, we’re able to compare and contrast different strategies for manning a particular position on the field. How will one team’s everyday player compare to a left/right platoon? Or is a team with a hot young prospect on the way up in line for a second half upgrade once the service time issues are out of the way? What teams have enough depth to sustain quality performance in case of an injury? These are the kinds of things we can readily identify through this series.
Keep in mind that this is a 2014 season preview series, so we are not taking into account any future value a player may produce, so even if a kid has a terrific future, players are only being judged based on what they are expected to produce this year. Those expectations come from our Depth Charts pages, which combine playing time forecasts based on manually updated rosters with a blend of the ZIPS and Steamer performance forecasts. Our depth charts include the most recent injury diagnoses and what we think we know about future playing time at present, though of course things will change as the season goes along. It’s always good to keep in mind that these are a snapshot of a point in time; things can and will change.
Also, it’s important to keep in mind that some players will have their value spread across multiple positions, so don’t freak out if you see a guy like Ben Zobrist listed with only +1 or +2 WAR at a specific position; his overall value is derived from accumulating value at several spots on the field, and none of these posts will reflect his entire value to the Rays. It should also be noted that multi-position players present a little bit of a challenge for this format, because ZIPS and Steamer forecast individual defensive ratings for a player’s expected primary position, not for every possible position on the field. So, for a player who will primarily play second base but also get some at-bats at shortstop, his defensive rating — it is listed as FLD in the data boxes — will be his expected value at second base, and his value will be slightly overstated when he plays shortstop, as his defensive performance at that position would be expected to be a bit worse.
This is a minor flaw in the system, and should serve as a reminder that these forecasts are certainly not perfect. This is an outline, not a precise calculation, and you shouldn’t worry too much about decimal point differences in rankings like this. Even if one team is forecast for +3.4 WAR and another is forecast for +3.0, there’s little actual difference there, and you certainly shouldn’t get too up in arms about a couple of places of ordinal rank if the overall forecast is essentially even. At some positions, there won’t be a big gap between the #10 and #20 teams, so try not to react too strongly to the number associated with a team’s placement. The value forecast is what you really care about, not so much a team’s rank within a position.
That said, there are different baseline forecasts for different positions. Catchers are projected to produce more value than left fielders, for instance, so the rankings also help to align things within a team’s comparison to its peers at that position. Knowing how your team stacks up against the competition at a given spot is helpful, and it’s one of the reasons we like the positional preview format.
For those interested in a schedule, we’re tentatively planning on rolling out two posts per day, with catchers and first baseman to follow a little later on today. We hope you enjoy the series as our way of leading up to Opening Day.
2014 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher.
What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position. The author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.
Dave’s hit you with the introduction, so it’s time to begin this series in earnest. And we’ll begin, as we always do, with the catchers, even though catching might be baseball’s most mysterious position. For an idea of the spread of what you’re going to see — which is more important than the rankings themselves — here’s a graph with green in it:
You’ll notice there’s a big gap between first and second. It’s a gap of 1.2 WAR. That’s as big as the gap between fifth and 24th. Let there be no question: by our system, there’s a clear first place, looking down upon the rest of the landscape.
But of course, our system isn’t all-encompassing or perfect, and not just because the projections are arguable and the playing time is arguable too. There are just things about catching that aren’t included, one invisible one being game-calling, and one visible one being pitch-receiving or pitch-framing. You’ve seen the pitch-framing research, and you’ve seen some of the numbers it suggests. Including those numbers would shake up these rankings. The market doesn’t seem to believe too heavily in the numbers, and conversations I’ve had suggest people in the game think the numbers are too extreme, but there’s little question there’s some kind of skill there, and so catchers should receive at least partial credit. I’ll take care to talk about pitch-framing below, for catchers where it makes sense. You can mentally shuffle that information into the rankings. Now it’s probably beyond time to proceed, from the top.
#1 Giants
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Buster Posey 480 .295 .371 .469 .364 20.7 -1.3 4.4 5.1
Hector Sanchez 128 .249 .292 .363 .288 -2.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.4
Andrew Susac 32 .219 .298 .326 .282 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 640 .281 .352 .440 .345 17.9 -1.5 3.7 5.6
A year ago, the Giants ranked first, by almost a full win. This time around, they rank first, by more than a full win. There’s talk about how Buster Posey could end up a first baseman down the road, and last year he made 16 starts at that position, but for the time being he remains a backstop and an absolutely incredible one. The pessimist would say that Posey’s wRC+ just dropped 30 points. The optimist would say that Posey’s wRC+ was 33 points higher than average, and no one could’ve reasonably expected Posey to repeat what he did in 2012. All he was was an excellent hitter who’s more than capable of handling the load behind the plate, and that ought to remain the case for the coming season. Posey’s a gem, and he’s a major reason why the Giants should play like contenders.
Hector Sanchez, last year, swung at 40% of pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s the same as what he did the year before. But he did drop his swing rate at strikes by five percentage points. So, that’s Hector Sanchez for you.
#2 Indians
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yan Gomes 435 .257 .309 .423 .320 2.2 0.0 3.5 3.1
Carlos Santana 141 .254 .367 .444 .355 4.6 -0.4 -0.6 1.2
Matt Treanor 38 .203 .285 .294 .263 -1.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Roberto Perez 26 .220 .280 .330 .272 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 640 .251 .319 .416 .323 4.4 -0.6 2.8 4.4
When the Indians picked up Yan Gomes along with Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers, they probably figured, “hey, we’re getting a neat guy.” They probably didn’t figure, “hey, we’re getting maybe a franchise catcher.” Gomes is 26, and in his first full season, he hit for power and average while displaying solidly above-average defensive skills. He gave the Indians their first quality pitch-framer in a number of years, and while Gomes probably isn’t going to sustain the numbers he just put up, he doesn’t have to do that to look plenty good. He’s already been good enough, in fact, to displace Carlos Santana. If Gomes is a league-average hitter, he’s a good regular. If he’s an above-average hitter, he’s a great regular. Santana will still catch some, so Indians pitchers will still have to deal with some Carlos Santana, but Gomes has to be a breath of fresh air. Good going, Brazil. Good going, Cleveland. Worse going, Toronto.
#3 Cardinals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yadier Molina 429 .292 .342 .432 .337 8.1 -1.5 8.4 3.9
Tony Cruz 160 .234 .276 .337 .270 -5.4 -0.2 0.8 0.3
Rob Johnson 32 .217 .274 .326 .266 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Audry Perez 19 .227 .260 .311 .253 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 640 .271 .320 .399 .314 0.7 -1.8 9.2 4.3
Yadier Molina does everything. He can even run a little bit, at least for a catcher. He hits for average. He gets on base. He hits for power. He blocks pitches in the dirt. He calls a good game. He has a terrifying, intimidating arm. He frames. He ages slowly, given that he’s still just 31. He leads. Molina is a dream of a regular catcher, and I expect him to exceed this playing time, as he hasn’t batted fewer than 518 times since 2008, when he reached 485. Because they’re a baseball team, the Cardinals have always carried a backup catcher. Because they’ve had Yadier Molina, they almost haven’t had to. Every few months, I’ll look over the Cardinals’ roster, and I’ll see Tony Cruz’s name, and I’ll think to myself, “what is that guy’s deal?” I’m probably never going to find out. Molina’s too durable, and Molina’s too good.
#4 Royals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Salvador Perez 480 .287 .320 .432 .327 2.1 -0.8 7.4 3.7
Brett Hayes 115 .228 .266 .378 .280 -3.7 0.0 -0.4 0.2
Francisco Pena 32 .220 .280 .330 .272 -1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ramon Hernandez 13 .238 .287 .368 .288 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 640 .272 .308 .416 .315 -3.3 -0.9 7.0 3.9
Perez has had his wRC+ drop two years in a row, but just because he hasn’t broken out and just because he’s easy to forget doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a player. He’s still just 23 years old, last year he played almost every day, and he blends a contact-heavy batting-average approach with standout defensive skills and improving pitch-receiving. As a rookie, Perez was 1.6 strikes below average per game, according to Matthew Carruth’s framing numbers. As a sophomore, he moved to -1.4. Last year, he jumped up to -0.3. Though he won’t walk, he also won’t strike out, and along the way he’ll hit for some power and help out the pitching staff. Perez is signed through 2019, and the Royals probably couldn’t be more thrilled. Brett Hayes isn’t much of anything, but he’d only have to be in the event of a disaster.
#5 Yankees
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brian McCann 480 .259 .339 .460 .346 8.6 -1.8 -1.5 3.3
Francisco Cervelli 96 .235 .314 .334 .293 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 0.2
Austin Romine 26 .238 .290 .349 .284 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.1
J.R. Murphy 19 .239 .296 .379 .298 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Gary Sanchez 19 .235 .285 .397 .299 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .253 .331 .432 .332 4.8 -1.8 -2.2 3.7
The Yankees are coming off a season in which their catchers gave them excellent defense and excellent pitch-framing. The front office subsequently dipped into the free-agent market, and now their catchers stand to provide excellent defense, excellent pitch-framing, and really good hitting, too, in stark contrast to the 2013 out-apalooza. If you don’t believe much in framing, McCann looks like a good sign, as he’s a productive regular catcher with a few more years to spend behind the plate. If you do believe in framing, McCann could be a superstar bargain. As bridges to future youth go, McCann is second to few.
#6 Orioles
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Wieters 480 .250 .317 .425 .322 -0.2 -1.3 6.5 3.3
Chris Snyder 96 .221 .298 .364 .293 -2.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.2
Steve Clevenger 32 .256 .309 .365 .298 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Johnny Monell 32 .223 .296 .373 .296 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 640 .245 .312 .410 .315 -3.8 -1.8 5.3 3.6
Compared to last year, Wieters’ projected OBP is down 16 points, and his projected SLG is down ten points, so his projected wOBA is down ten points. Not a whole lot changed about him, but he hit into more outs and put more balls in the air, and I think it’s safe to say Wieters isn’t blossoming into the superstar he was projected to become as a high-minors prospect. But if you’re feeling pessimistic, I’ll remind you of two things: one, he’s still one of the best catchers in baseball, and two, he’s still just 27 years old, and catchers tend to have their development proceed more slowly. Wieters is still a part of the Orioles’ core, and he’s still a guy who’s going to help determine whether or not the 2014 Orioles are gunning for the postseason. His future’s up in the air, but the same could be said for all of us.
#7 Nationals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilson Ramos 384 .269 .321 .443 .332 4.4 -0.7 2.1 2.7
Jose Lobaton 179 .243 .318 .375 .308 -1.3 -0.4 -1.0 0.7
Jhonatan Solano 38 .235 .270 .333 .265 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sandy Leon 38 .221 .286 .311 .268 -1.5 0.0 0.3 0.1
Total 640 .257 .315 .410 .317 0.0 -1.1 1.4 3.5
Wilson Ramos’ initials are WAR. If he can ever stay healthy, he could be worth a lot of it. His defensive skills seem to be perfectly fine, he’s only 26, and he owns a career 109 wRC+ while last year he trimmed his strikeout rate while boosting his power. Staying on the field is the key for Ramos, and as long as he’s able to do that, the Nationals might well have a top-five backstop. Because of Ramos’ health concerns, the Nationals made it an offseason priority to land themselves a reliable reserve. Lobaton fits, as a guy who was squeezed out of Tampa Bay, and while Washington would obviously like for Ramos to play as much as he possibly can, Lobaton’s an all-right option if he’s forced to play a couple weeks in a row. He’s coming off a quietly good 311 plate appearances.
#8 Astros
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Castro 480 .250 .331 .416 .328 3.8 -0.2 -0.3 3.1
Carlos Corporan 64 .225 .281 .358 .281 -1.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Max Stassi 64 .236 .286 .390 .297 -1.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
Cody Clark 32 .199 .241 .281 .233 -2.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Total 640 .243 .317 .401 .315 -1.2 -0.4 -0.3 3.4
While the future might be Max Stassi, the present’s still Jason Castro, and Castro is one of the rare Astros players who could still be a starter on most of the other teams in major-league baseball. It’s been a delight to watch his progress. As a rookie, he fought his way to a 56 wRC+. The next time around, he pulled himself up to a strong 100. Last season, he finished at 130, with power and walks to offset the strikeouts. For good measure, Castro improved his blocking, and worked on his receiving. Castro’s turned himself into a well-rounded player, and even if his future might be with another organization, he’ll give the Astros value in 2014 and he’d bring the Astros value after that, if Stassi pushes his way through. Which, you know, he’s capable of, because the Astros are becoming increasingly loaded with quality youth.
#9 Brewers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jonathan Lucroy 448 .273 .329 .431 .333 4.6 -0.6 0.1 2.8
Martin Maldonado 192 .222 .283 .352 .282 -5.6 -0.2 1.2 0.5
Total 640 .258 .316 .407 .317 -1.0 -0.9 1.3 3.4
A reminder of a quote from a couple weeks ago:
according to 1 gm, their team ranks brewers jonathan lucroy as 1 of top 2 catchers, along with yadier molina.
Framing. This is where we have to talk about framing. The numbers make Lucroy look outstanding. Maldonado, too, suggesting that the Brewers are doing something to teach this. As is, the Brewers’ catchers are at the bottom of the top 10. Include framing numbers and they jump all the way to the front, or at least close to it. If the framing ranges are true, then Jonathan Lucroy is baseball’s quietest superstar. If they’re exaggerated, Lucroy’s still better than he looks above, unless you believe it’s 100% completely made up.
And you know the funny thing? Lucroy can hit, too. He’s chopped his strikeouts, he’s boosted his power, and he’s turned himself into a legitimate threat. Without framing, Lucroy is underrated. With framing, Lucroy is one of the most valuable players in baseball. What percentage of baseball fans even know his name? Maybe you’re sick of people like me beating this drum, but Jonathan Lucroy deserves to have his drum beaten. I don’t think that came out right.
#10 Dodgers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
A.J. Ellis 493 .242 .335 .361 .311 -0.2 -1.1 3.7 2.9
Tim Federowicz 115 .228 .292 .352 .284 -2.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4
Drew Butera 32 .203 .244 .291 .238 -1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 640 .238 .323 .356 .302 -4.5 -1.2 3.9 3.2
Really, Ellis’ 23-point drop in wRC+ was a 60-point drop in BABIP. That’s the main component, and though there were other changes, BABIP could be blamed for the bulk of it. This ought to be an easily projectable player. You know he’s not going to run much. He’ll walk, he’ll strike out some, and he’ll hit for very modest power. Despite being a Dodger, Ellis is the opposite of flashy, but he’s reliable and he might be developing his throwing arm. Last season he nabbed 28 of 63 runners, although it’s possible this had more to do with the pitching staff.
I’ll throw out some framing numbers again, for A.J. Ellis:
2010: -2.0 strikes/game
2011: -1.1
2012: -1.0
2013: -0.5
It stands to reason that pitch-framing could be coachable. It stands to reason that Ellis could be getting better in that department. It stands to reason the Dodgers are pretty happy with their catching situation, all things considered.
#11 Padres
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yasmani Grandal 384 .252 .345 .390 .326 4.7 -0.4 -1.5 2.4
Nick Hundley 224 .227 .287 .369 .287 -4.1 -0.6 0.8 0.8
Rene Rivera 32 .230 .275 .338 .271 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 640 .242 .322 .380 .310 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 3.2
Setting a minimum of 1,000 called pitches caught, last year’s best framer, according to Matthew Carruth, was Rene Rivera. In second was Yasmani Grandal. The season before, Grandal finished sixth, and I’ve had it relayed to me that the Padres do believe in this stuff, maybe because they have to but maybe also because they’re smart baseball men who are trying to take advantage of what remains an over-cautious market.
So Grandal’s a surprisingly capable receiver. The question, oddly, is his bat, which last year dropped 44 points to a 100 wRC+. People continue to wonder about his power on the other side of a PED suspension, but our system sees him as a threat. There’s little doubt about the walks and the strikeouts, and the power potential is still in there. Should Grandal end up slumping or hurt, there are worse backups around than Nick Hundley, who had a big bounceback 2013. Though he wasn’t extraordinary, he was clearly happy to have put his injury problems behind him.
#12 Pirates
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Russell Martin 448 .231 .323 .374 .311 -0.8 -0.3 5.0 2.8
Chris Stewart 128 .232 .289 .307 .267 -4.6 0.0 0.2 0.2
Tony Sanchez 64 .234 .300 .361 .294 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Total 640 .232 .314 .359 .301 -6.5 -0.3 4.9 3.2
Behold, the position that in large part helped the Pirates finally return to the playoffs. Behold, the catcher that the Yankees probably missed every single day. Martin’s still hitting, even if he’s come down from what he was in 2007, and he was tremendously valuable behind the plate, blocking pitches and gunning down a whole lot of baserunners. And, yeah, Martin’s a quality pitch-receiver, which is something the Pirates hadn’t had in way too many years. Martin is the rare free-agent acquisition who looks like a bargain, and behind him, Stewart can at least approximate some of his skills. Tony Sanchez is of interest, and he makes for good depth, but Martin is one of those guys who makes the Pirates tick. So, he’s one of those guys the Pirates would prefer not to have to play without for too long a stretch.
#13 Braves
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Evan Gattis 352 .252 .302 .464 .330 4.0 -0.4 -2.6 2.0
Gerald Laird 224 .243 .309 .348 .292 -4.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8
Ryan Doumit 64 .251 .311 .402 .312 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.3
Christian Bethancourt 45 .253 .280 .376 .287 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2
Steven Lerud 19 .193 .270 .273 .247 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 704 .248 .303 .411 .311 -2.3 -1.0 -1.7 3.2
Gattis makes for a fascinating story and an intriguing power bat. Somewhat surprisingly, he seems to be a quality receiver, too. What he’s got are some other question marks, but one should hope those question marks don’t lead the Braves to play too much of someone else, because the alternatives to Gattis are lousy. Laird doesn’t really do anything well, and though Doumit can hit some, he gives everything back as a defender in a helmet. It’s going to be a big adjustment for the Braves to enter the post-McCann era, and it’s going to sting some, but Gattis has it in him to make the adjustment tolerable. Even exciting, once every handful of at-bats. After how bad the spring has gone so far, the Braves could use some Evan Gattis optimism.
#14 Diamondbacks
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Miguel Montero 544 .251 .339 .398 .324 0.3 -1.5 3.0 3.1
Henry Blanco 51 .211 .275 .334 .272 -2.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Tuffy Gosewisch 45 .226 .267 .342 .269 -1.9 -0.1 0.2 0.0
Total 640 .246 .329 .388 .316 -3.7 -1.8 3.2 3.2
When did the decline begin? On the one hand, Miguel Montero’s wRC+ peaked in 2012 before plummeting in 2013. On the other hand, he was coming off a career-high BABIP and a career-low ISO, and then last season the BABIP regressed while the ISO dropped further. The result was that Montero was worth hardly anything, and even a better second half didn’t make the picture all the more rosy. Montero, now, is projected to bounce back. Our numbers put him solidly in between his last two seasons. But the downside potential exists, and I’m not sure about relief in the persons of Henry Blanco or Tuffy Gosewisch. By the way, Montero’s receiving numbers have also declined. This reads like an awful negative paragraph.
#15 Tigers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Avila 416 .240 .340 .399 .328 1.9 -0.6 -0.8 2.4
Bryan Holaday 173 .239 .287 .342 .280 -5.8 -0.1 0.9 0.4
Victor Martinez 32 .290 .344 .426 .334 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Ramon Cabrera 19 .259 .315 .342 .293 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .243 .325 .382 .314 -4.0 -0.8 0.0 3.1
Between 2011 and 2012, Alex Avila lost a lot of power. Between 2012 and 2013, Avila lost a lot of OBP. This guy’s still just 27 years old, but it’s been quite the fall from his breakthrough year, which in some sense is reason for optimism. In that, it’s not too late for him to get back. Encouragingly, his numbers against right-handed pitchers stayed about the same, and he had a bigger second half after a miserable first half. So if you look closer, Avila is actually trending somewhat positively. He’s going to carry the load again, because he doesn’t have a lot of quality behind him, and it seems reasonable to me to project the Tigers in the middle of the pack. But if Avila’s strikeouts keep going up, that wRC+ will keep going down, and the Tigers can lose only so much value before they drop closer to their divisional rivals. They remain in a strong, dominant position, but throw enough rocks and you’ll bring down a lion.
#16 Athletics
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Derek Norris 320 .221 .319 .385 .314 -0.3 0.3 -1.2 1.7
Stephen Vogt 160 .249 .299 .378 .297 -2.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.6
John Jaso 128 .250 .357 .375 .330 1.5 -0.1 -1.0 0.8
Chris Gimenez 32 .226 .305 .317 .281 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .234 .321 .378 .311 -1.8 0.0 -3.1 3.1
Just to point something out: the A’s, here, rank 16th, while the Dodgers ranked 10th. But the Dodgers rank 10th with 3.2 WAR, while the A’s rank 16th with 3.1 WAR, so this is the part of the post where you shouldn’t care about the rankings too much. Many of these teams project more or less the same. The A’s continue to insist that John Jaso isn’t finished catching, despite his concussion trouble. What that means is that Jaso should get some playing time here. But he’ll also give some to Jaso-equivalent Stephen Vogt, and together they’ll probably platoon with Derek Norris, who’s young and good and fairly promising. Norris, also, has a little defensive skill, so he could be a quality regular down the road. For the time being, the A’s will leverage their all-around roster depth. As with many of their positions, this is neither a strength nor a weakness.
#17 Cubs
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Welington Castillo 397 .250 .323 .400 .319 -1.1 -0.3 0.8 2.1
George Kottaras 218 .216 .330 .383 .318 -0.7 -0.2 -2.1 0.8
John Baker 26 .210 .288 .277 .258 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Total 640 .237 .324 .389 .316 -3.2 -0.5 -1.5 2.9
Now we’re making our way toward the lower tier, and in Welington Castillo, we have a catcher who’s posted a .346 BABIP with three times as many strikeouts as walks. Also, he doesn’t hit for big power, and also, he doesn’t seem to receive particularly well. But Castillo’s young and you can’t ignore a 103 wRC+, and last season he did manage to reduce his strikeouts a little bit. In the event Castillo has to miss some time, the Cubs can turn to a guy who can also hit a little without really contributing a lot as a defender. That’s not fair to Castillo, who can block and throw, but I’m biased toward pitch-framing numbers and if you didn’t already know that you haven’t been paying attention. You want me to sum this up? Castillo’s fine. Could be better, but, could be worse. Not the biggest problem the Cubs are going to have. Not going to represent the organization in the All-Star Game.
#18 Blue Jays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dioner Navarro 320 .259 .321 .411 .320 -0.5 -1.4 -0.6 1.6
Erik Kratz 256 .234 .295 .415 .308 -2.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.1
Josh Thole 32 .249 .317 .356 .297 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
A.J. Jimenez 32 .251 .289 .357 .285 -0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 640 .248 .309 .407 .312 -4.8 -1.8 -1.2 2.8
Look, I could write words, and if you’re reading these words, you would’ve read those words. I could tell you all about Dioner Navarro’s upside. I could tell you some things about Erik Kratz’s apparent defensive ability. I could tell you how Navarro’s deal could look like a real bargain, even though the Jays themselves claimed they paid more than they would’ve liked. But this section absolutely isn’t about Dioner Navarro and Erik Kratz. It’s about how the Blue Jays don’t have J.P. Arencibia anymore. Last season J.P. Arencibia posted a .227 OBP. Things are going to be better. Things are going to be better, you guys. You just have to believe. You don’t even have to believe. They just will be.
#19 Mets
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis d’Arnaud 416 .243 .306 .396 .309 -0.8 -0.1 -1.0 2.0
Anthony Recker 173 .225 .296 .384 .300 -1.6 -0.2 -1.0 0.6
Juan Centeno 32 .252 .292 .315 .271 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
Taylor Teagarden 19 .198 .256 .335 .263 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 640 .238 .301 .387 .303 -4.1 -0.3 -1.8 2.7
While d’Arnaud is a question mark, it’s interesting that the projection systems are in agreement. Steamer projects a 99 wRC+. ZiPS projects a 97 wRC+. Oliver projects a 99 wRC+. The Fans project a 117 wRC+, but that’s about the same after you make the usual Fan adjustment. Everyone agrees that d’Arnaud will continue to walk, and everyone agrees that d’Arnaud will start to show some more of the power he’s only so far shown in hitter-friendly environments. It isn’t known whether d’Arnaud will end up all right or legitimately good, but this is a position of promise for an organization that needs more of them. In the short term, d’Arnaud will blend discipline with defensive skills. If he hits for this much power, the Mets will be happy. If he hits beyond this, the Mets will be thrilled.
#20 Phillies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Ruiz 416 .272 .340 .405 .326 2.3 -0.8 2.2 2.6
Wil Nieves 128 .240 .274 .319 .261 -5.7 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1
Cameron Rupp 96 .225 .277 .345 .276 -3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 640 .258 .318 .378 .305 -6.6 -1.2 1.5 2.7
Ruiz was absolutely outstanding in 2012. Then he served a suspension and, while his walks and strikeouts stayed the same, he gave away more than half his ISO along with a good chunk of his BABIP. Now Ruiz is just an aging catcher coming off the worst season he’s had since 2008, so this is a situation where you can see both the bounceback upside and the potential for the Phillies to have a nightmare on their hands. Not long ago, Ruiz was a quality regular. Sometimes, however, when catchers go, they just go. I guess it could be worse. All the projected teams below the Phillies project worse, after all. Here’s one of them!
#21 Rockies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilin Rosario 512 .272 .305 .481 .340 0.6 -0.1 -3.7 2.4
Michael McKenry 77 .250 .314 .417 .320 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.2
Jordan Pacheco 51 .272 .316 .374 .305 -1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .270 .307 .465 .335 -1.8 -0.2 -4.3 2.7
The thing that makes me chuckle is that I’m writing about Wilin Rosario in a post about catchers. Rosario is as raw as it gets, defensively, and in a way, he’s about as raw as it gets offensively, too. A list of the things he doesn’t do: walk, block, frame, make contact, throw with consistent accuracy. A list of the things he does do: hit for power, hit for some average. Rosario is dangerous at the plate, some of the time, and he’s still young enough to become a real terror, but the likelihood is that if that happens, it’ll happen for him at another defensive position. He’s made some improvements as a catcher, but it seems to me he still has too far to go.
#22 Angels
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hank Conger 352 .243 .303 .380 .301 -3.5 -0.4 -2.3 1.3
Chris Iannetta 256 .217 .337 .361 .315 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 1.3
John Hester 32 .211 .270 .324 .265 -1.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Total 640 .232 .315 .370 .304 -4.4 -1.1 -3.2 2.7
This is a fairly unremarkable duo. The great separation: last season, as a receiver, Iannetta was about 1.1 strikes below average per game. Conger, meanwhile, was about 2.1 strikes above average per game, standing out as one of baseball’s premier pitch-framers. Whether or not Mike Scioscia’s aware of that, I can’t say, but the potential is there for Conger to have a lot more value and help to push the Angels toward the playoff race. Iannetta probably has more of the offensive upside, but neither guy is a slugger and neither guy is a star. John Hester is here, too. Say hi.
#23 Rays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Hanigan 352 .246 .336 .317 .289 -6.3 -0.4 4.4 1.7
Jose Molina 288 .225 .283 .319 .269 -9.7 -0.9 2.9 0.8
Total 640 .236 .312 .318 .280 -16.0 -1.4 7.3 2.5
Do I even need to tell you? The primary reason the Rays have both these guys isn’t included in the projection systems. So, as a result, the Rays seem underrated by the projection systems. It’s no secret that Jose Molina can’t really hit. Ryan Hanigan’s best days might be behind him. He certainly can’t hit for much power. But Molina’s here to catch borderline strikes, and the same goes for Hanigan, and if you believe strongly in those skills, the Rays ought to show up sooner in the list. A lot of teams are skeptical. The Rays aren’t skeptical. You choose who to trust, I can’t make up your mind.
#24 Twins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kurt Suzuki 384 .247 .301 .372 .294 -7.3 -0.4 0.3 1.4
Josmil Pinto 192 .256 .316 .397 .314 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 1.0
Chris Herrmann 64 .221 .288 .317 .272 -2.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 640 .247 .304 .374 .298 -10.2 -0.5 0.1 2.5
It doesn’t get less exciting than Kurt Suzuki. From our standpoint, I mean. Pitchers love him, he’s a great guy, calls a good game, but he does nothing for me as a player and I’m guessing he does nothing for you. A fun thing I heard over the weekend: Suzuki is able enough as a receiver, but he’s hurt by his short arms, causing him to stab for pitches he shouldn’t have to stab or reach for. Consider him one of those guys who might be more valuable in real life than he seems to be on his FanGraphs page. Josmil Pinto is the real intrigue here, after hitting his way up the organizational ladder in 2013. The more he plays, the more interesting the Twins will be to non-Twins fans, and also to Twins fans. I should’ve led with “Twins fans”.
#25 Red Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
A.J. Pierzynski 320 .268 .300 .417 .310 -3.5 -1.3 -0.1 1.3
David Ross 192 .220 .290 .377 .296 -4.3 -0.5 1.0 0.7
Christian Vazquez 51 .252 .314 .355 .299 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Daniel Butler 51 .234 .303 .377 .301 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
Ryan Lavarnway 26 .251 .315 .395 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1
Total 640 .249 .299 .396 .304 -10.1 -1.9 0.8 2.4
No one’s going to tell you the Red Sox found their solution in A.J. Pierzynski. But the Red Sox aren’t paying him to be the solution, and you’ll notice the guy they lost to free agency hasn’t shown up on the list yet. Pierzynski is perfectly fine, and a better fit for the clubhouse than he seems to be based on his Internet reputation. Behind Pierzynski, the Red Sox have maybe the best backup catcher in baseball, and if Ross had more stamina he’d have a lot more career plate appearances. This is all about buying time until the younger guys are ready, and Pierzynski makes sense as a one-year stopgap. He’s far from spectacular, but he’s reliably adequate, and the Sox are strong in other places. Expect Pierzynski to get a lot of the credit if the Sox succeed, and expect him to get a lot of the blame if they fall flat. For personality reasons, I mean.
#26 Reds
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Devin Mesoraco 384 .247 .308 .413 .313 -1.9 -0.7 0.2 1.8
Brayan Pena 224 .259 .290 .368 .289 -5.4 -1.0 -1.2 0.4
Corky Miller 32 .218 .304 .338 .289 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .250 .301 .393 .303 -8.1 -1.8 -1.1 2.2
At some point, bat-first catchers have to swing good bats, and Devin Mesoraco hasn’t done that yet. But the projections foresee improvement, with Steamer pegging a 92 wRC+ and ZiPS going as high as 99. For as much as Mesoraco’s career numbers so far are depressed, we’re talking about just 589 plate appearances over parts of three seasons, and the guy turns 26 in the middle of June. There is significant offensive upside, and Mesoraco’s defensive game seems to be tolerable. Consider the Reds lower-tier, with an asterisk. Do I have to write about Brayan Pena and Corky Miller? I was never told that I was, specifically, so I’m going to talk about the Mariners now. Oh, great.
#27 Mariners
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Zunino 448 .231 .295 .382 .298 -7.2 0.2 -0.8 1.7
John Buck 128 .219 .293 .358 .288 -3.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4
Humberto Quintero 32 .224 .259 .320 .255 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Jesus Sucre 32 .243 .278 .307 .261 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 640 .229 .292 .370 .292 -13.3 -0.1 -1.0 2.1
The Mariners drew some criticism for promoting Mike Zunino awful aggressively. Mostly because that’s exactly what they did, but in their partial defense, they had an injury situation that all but forced their hand. Zunino didn’t do anything as a hitter in the bigs, and previous to his promotion he was in a slump in Triple-A, but there’s reason to believe for a better 2014. Zunino has fairly good power, and he’s one of those guys who’s revamped his swing, currently getting reps with it in camp. He’s now playing with experience, and his discipline isn’t a particular weakness. Elsewhere, Zunino features pretty good defensive skills. The elements are there for Zunino to be the long-term guy, like what the organization sells him as. Odds are, though, he won’t get really settled in until after 2014 is finished.
#28 Rangers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Geovany Soto 288 .225 .307 .399 .312 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 1.1
J.P. Arencibia 288 .223 .269 .419 .299 -6.4 -0.4 -1.7 0.7
Robinson Chirinos 64 .239 .309 .363 .299 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 640 .226 .290 .405 .305 -11.4 -1.5 -2.3 2.0
Well, I found J.P. Arencibia. And look, he’s projected for a big OBP improvement! I’ll say this for Arencibia: he seems to have made some dramatic steps forward with regard to framing. And Geovany Soto isn’t bad, either. Arencibia, in the past, has hit for just enough power to make himself something better than a disaster. Soto is coming off a strong offensive year as a backup, in which he hit for the power he had in 2010. It would be silly to suggest there’s no upside here. The Rangers like the way Soto catches and he could hit well enough to earn more than half the playing time. But the key is less about achieving upside, and more about avoiding downside. The Rangers just want for this to not be a problem. Anything more than that would be gravy.
#29 Marlins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 416 .235 .303 .408 .311 -2.2 -0.1 -3.3 1.6
Jeff Mathis 160 .200 .253 .320 .252 -8.3 -0.2 0.5 0.0
Rob Brantly 32 .241 .287 .337 .276 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 608 .226 .289 .381 .294 -11.6 -0.3 -2.8 1.7
The thing about Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t that he isn’t worth the contract he signed with the Marlins. He is worth the contract. The contract is fine. The thing about Jarrod Saltalamacchia is that he just isn’t that great. He was a two-win player a few years ago, he was a two-win player two years ago, and he was almost a four-win player last season in large part because of a .372 BABIP. Send that back down and Saltalamacchia goes back down, and we’re beyond the point at which we can still hope for him to stop striking out like a crazy person. What Saltalamacchia will do is give the Marlins a pinch of veteran adequacy. He probably won’t do much beyond that. At least he’s way better than Jeff Mathis. Just because he’s not great doesn’t mean he’s not a great improvement over the alternative.
#30 White Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Tyler Flowers 384 .206 .287 .372 .293 -9.4 -0.6 -1.8 0.9
Josh Phegley 160 .242 .281 .379 .289 -4.4 0.0 0.4 0.5
Adrian Nieto 32 .216 .286 .339 .280 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Hector Gimenez 32 .223 .285 .372 .289 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
Bryan Anderson 32 .219 .285 .347 .281 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 640 .217 .285 .371 .290 -16.9 -0.6 -1.6 1.6
Over the career equivalent of a full season, Tyler Flowers owns a 75 wRC+ with a strikeout for every three plate appearances. The strikeouts weren’t much better in Triple-A. Meanwhile, Josh Phegley, to his name, has 41 strikeouts, five walks, and four dingers. He showed some offensive promise in Triple-A but no one who watched him down the stretch last season can believe it. He chased way too often and made a habit of popping the ball in the air. Given the minor-league slash lines, the potential is there for the White Sox to actually have a pretty good catching situation. That would represent their 2014 ceiling, and the only point that would really make is that everybody in the majors is good and everybody in the majors has upside and downside. The projections have spoken: the White Sox aren’t in a good catching situation in 2014. Thankfully, for the White Sox, it isn’t about 2014. Maybe these guys will hit this year or maybe they won’t. At least then the White Sox will have their answers for when they think more about the future. It’s…it’s going to take time, for the White Sox.
Dave’s hit you with the introduction, so it’s time to begin this series in earnest. And we’ll begin, as we always do, with the catchers, even though catching might be baseball’s most mysterious position. For an idea of the spread of what you’re going to see — which is more important than the rankings themselves — here’s a graph with green in it:
You’ll notice there’s a big gap between first and second. It’s a gap of 1.2 WAR. That’s as big as the gap between fifth and 24th. Let there be no question: by our system, there’s a clear first place, looking down upon the rest of the landscape.
But of course, our system isn’t all-encompassing or perfect, and not just because the projections are arguable and the playing time is arguable too. There are just things about catching that aren’t included, one invisible one being game-calling, and one visible one being pitch-receiving or pitch-framing. You’ve seen the pitch-framing research, and you’ve seen some of the numbers it suggests. Including those numbers would shake up these rankings. The market doesn’t seem to believe too heavily in the numbers, and conversations I’ve had suggest people in the game think the numbers are too extreme, but there’s little question there’s some kind of skill there, and so catchers should receive at least partial credit. I’ll take care to talk about pitch-framing below, for catchers where it makes sense. You can mentally shuffle that information into the rankings. Now it’s probably beyond time to proceed, from the top.
#1 Giants
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Buster Posey 480 .295 .371 .469 .364 20.7 -1.3 4.4 5.1
Hector Sanchez 128 .249 .292 .363 .288 -2.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.4
Andrew Susac 32 .219 .298 .326 .282 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total 640 .281 .352 .440 .345 17.9 -1.5 3.7 5.6
A year ago, the Giants ranked first, by almost a full win. This time around, they rank first, by more than a full win. There’s talk about how Buster Posey could end up a first baseman down the road, and last year he made 16 starts at that position, but for the time being he remains a backstop and an absolutely incredible one. The pessimist would say that Posey’s wRC+ just dropped 30 points. The optimist would say that Posey’s wRC+ was 33 points higher than average, and no one could’ve reasonably expected Posey to repeat what he did in 2012. All he was was an excellent hitter who’s more than capable of handling the load behind the plate, and that ought to remain the case for the coming season. Posey’s a gem, and he’s a major reason why the Giants should play like contenders.
Hector Sanchez, last year, swung at 40% of pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s the same as what he did the year before. But he did drop his swing rate at strikes by five percentage points. So, that’s Hector Sanchez for you.
#2 Indians
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yan Gomes 435 .257 .309 .423 .320 2.2 0.0 3.5 3.1
Carlos Santana 141 .254 .367 .444 .355 4.6 -0.4 -0.6 1.2
Matt Treanor 38 .203 .285 .294 .263 -1.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Roberto Perez 26 .220 .280 .330 .272 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 640 .251 .319 .416 .323 4.4 -0.6 2.8 4.4
When the Indians picked up Yan Gomes along with Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers, they probably figured, “hey, we’re getting a neat guy.” They probably didn’t figure, “hey, we’re getting maybe a franchise catcher.” Gomes is 26, and in his first full season, he hit for power and average while displaying solidly above-average defensive skills. He gave the Indians their first quality pitch-framer in a number of years, and while Gomes probably isn’t going to sustain the numbers he just put up, he doesn’t have to do that to look plenty good. He’s already been good enough, in fact, to displace Carlos Santana. If Gomes is a league-average hitter, he’s a good regular. If he’s an above-average hitter, he’s a great regular. Santana will still catch some, so Indians pitchers will still have to deal with some Carlos Santana, but Gomes has to be a breath of fresh air. Good going, Brazil. Good going, Cleveland. Worse going, Toronto.
#3 Cardinals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yadier Molina 429 .292 .342 .432 .337 8.1 -1.5 8.4 3.9
Tony Cruz 160 .234 .276 .337 .270 -5.4 -0.2 0.8 0.3
Rob Johnson 32 .217 .274 .326 .266 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Audry Perez 19 .227 .260 .311 .253 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 640 .271 .320 .399 .314 0.7 -1.8 9.2 4.3
Yadier Molina does everything. He can even run a little bit, at least for a catcher. He hits for average. He gets on base. He hits for power. He blocks pitches in the dirt. He calls a good game. He has a terrifying, intimidating arm. He frames. He ages slowly, given that he’s still just 31. He leads. Molina is a dream of a regular catcher, and I expect him to exceed this playing time, as he hasn’t batted fewer than 518 times since 2008, when he reached 485. Because they’re a baseball team, the Cardinals have always carried a backup catcher. Because they’ve had Yadier Molina, they almost haven’t had to. Every few months, I’ll look over the Cardinals’ roster, and I’ll see Tony Cruz’s name, and I’ll think to myself, “what is that guy’s deal?” I’m probably never going to find out. Molina’s too durable, and Molina’s too good.
#4 Royals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Salvador Perez 480 .287 .320 .432 .327 2.1 -0.8 7.4 3.7
Brett Hayes 115 .228 .266 .378 .280 -3.7 0.0 -0.4 0.2
Francisco Pena 32 .220 .280 .330 .272 -1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ramon Hernandez 13 .238 .287 .368 .288 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 640 .272 .308 .416 .315 -3.3 -0.9 7.0 3.9
Perez has had his wRC+ drop two years in a row, but just because he hasn’t broken out and just because he’s easy to forget doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a player. He’s still just 23 years old, last year he played almost every day, and he blends a contact-heavy batting-average approach with standout defensive skills and improving pitch-receiving. As a rookie, Perez was 1.6 strikes below average per game, according to Matthew Carruth’s framing numbers. As a sophomore, he moved to -1.4. Last year, he jumped up to -0.3. Though he won’t walk, he also won’t strike out, and along the way he’ll hit for some power and help out the pitching staff. Perez is signed through 2019, and the Royals probably couldn’t be more thrilled. Brett Hayes isn’t much of anything, but he’d only have to be in the event of a disaster.
#5 Yankees
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brian McCann 480 .259 .339 .460 .346 8.6 -1.8 -1.5 3.3
Francisco Cervelli 96 .235 .314 .334 .293 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 0.2
Austin Romine 26 .238 .290 .349 .284 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.1
J.R. Murphy 19 .239 .296 .379 .298 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Gary Sanchez 19 .235 .285 .397 .299 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .253 .331 .432 .332 4.8 -1.8 -2.2 3.7
The Yankees are coming off a season in which their catchers gave them excellent defense and excellent pitch-framing. The front office subsequently dipped into the free-agent market, and now their catchers stand to provide excellent defense, excellent pitch-framing, and really good hitting, too, in stark contrast to the 2013 out-apalooza. If you don’t believe much in framing, McCann looks like a good sign, as he’s a productive regular catcher with a few more years to spend behind the plate. If you do believe in framing, McCann could be a superstar bargain. As bridges to future youth go, McCann is second to few.
#6 Orioles
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Wieters 480 .250 .317 .425 .322 -0.2 -1.3 6.5 3.3
Chris Snyder 96 .221 .298 .364 .293 -2.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.2
Steve Clevenger 32 .256 .309 .365 .298 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Johnny Monell 32 .223 .296 .373 .296 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Total 640 .245 .312 .410 .315 -3.8 -1.8 5.3 3.6
Compared to last year, Wieters’ projected OBP is down 16 points, and his projected SLG is down ten points, so his projected wOBA is down ten points. Not a whole lot changed about him, but he hit into more outs and put more balls in the air, and I think it’s safe to say Wieters isn’t blossoming into the superstar he was projected to become as a high-minors prospect. But if you’re feeling pessimistic, I’ll remind you of two things: one, he’s still one of the best catchers in baseball, and two, he’s still just 27 years old, and catchers tend to have their development proceed more slowly. Wieters is still a part of the Orioles’ core, and he’s still a guy who’s going to help determine whether or not the 2014 Orioles are gunning for the postseason. His future’s up in the air, but the same could be said for all of us.
#7 Nationals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilson Ramos 384 .269 .321 .443 .332 4.4 -0.7 2.1 2.7
Jose Lobaton 179 .243 .318 .375 .308 -1.3 -0.4 -1.0 0.7
Jhonatan Solano 38 .235 .270 .333 .265 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sandy Leon 38 .221 .286 .311 .268 -1.5 0.0 0.3 0.1
Total 640 .257 .315 .410 .317 0.0 -1.1 1.4 3.5
Wilson Ramos’ initials are WAR. If he can ever stay healthy, he could be worth a lot of it. His defensive skills seem to be perfectly fine, he’s only 26, and he owns a career 109 wRC+ while last year he trimmed his strikeout rate while boosting his power. Staying on the field is the key for Ramos, and as long as he’s able to do that, the Nationals might well have a top-five backstop. Because of Ramos’ health concerns, the Nationals made it an offseason priority to land themselves a reliable reserve. Lobaton fits, as a guy who was squeezed out of Tampa Bay, and while Washington would obviously like for Ramos to play as much as he possibly can, Lobaton’s an all-right option if he’s forced to play a couple weeks in a row. He’s coming off a quietly good 311 plate appearances.
#8 Astros
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jason Castro 480 .250 .331 .416 .328 3.8 -0.2 -0.3 3.1
Carlos Corporan 64 .225 .281 .358 .281 -1.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
Max Stassi 64 .236 .286 .390 .297 -1.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
Cody Clark 32 .199 .241 .281 .233 -2.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Total 640 .243 .317 .401 .315 -1.2 -0.4 -0.3 3.4
While the future might be Max Stassi, the present’s still Jason Castro, and Castro is one of the rare Astros players who could still be a starter on most of the other teams in major-league baseball. It’s been a delight to watch his progress. As a rookie, he fought his way to a 56 wRC+. The next time around, he pulled himself up to a strong 100. Last season, he finished at 130, with power and walks to offset the strikeouts. For good measure, Castro improved his blocking, and worked on his receiving. Castro’s turned himself into a well-rounded player, and even if his future might be with another organization, he’ll give the Astros value in 2014 and he’d bring the Astros value after that, if Stassi pushes his way through. Which, you know, he’s capable of, because the Astros are becoming increasingly loaded with quality youth.
#9 Brewers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jonathan Lucroy 448 .273 .329 .431 .333 4.6 -0.6 0.1 2.8
Martin Maldonado 192 .222 .283 .352 .282 -5.6 -0.2 1.2 0.5
Total 640 .258 .316 .407 .317 -1.0 -0.9 1.3 3.4
A reminder of a quote from a couple weeks ago:
according to 1 gm, their team ranks brewers jonathan lucroy as 1 of top 2 catchers, along with yadier molina.
Framing. This is where we have to talk about framing. The numbers make Lucroy look outstanding. Maldonado, too, suggesting that the Brewers are doing something to teach this. As is, the Brewers’ catchers are at the bottom of the top 10. Include framing numbers and they jump all the way to the front, or at least close to it. If the framing ranges are true, then Jonathan Lucroy is baseball’s quietest superstar. If they’re exaggerated, Lucroy’s still better than he looks above, unless you believe it’s 100% completely made up.
And you know the funny thing? Lucroy can hit, too. He’s chopped his strikeouts, he’s boosted his power, and he’s turned himself into a legitimate threat. Without framing, Lucroy is underrated. With framing, Lucroy is one of the most valuable players in baseball. What percentage of baseball fans even know his name? Maybe you’re sick of people like me beating this drum, but Jonathan Lucroy deserves to have his drum beaten. I don’t think that came out right.
#10 Dodgers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
A.J. Ellis 493 .242 .335 .361 .311 -0.2 -1.1 3.7 2.9
Tim Federowicz 115 .228 .292 .352 .284 -2.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4
Drew Butera 32 .203 .244 .291 .238 -1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 640 .238 .323 .356 .302 -4.5 -1.2 3.9 3.2
Really, Ellis’ 23-point drop in wRC+ was a 60-point drop in BABIP. That’s the main component, and though there were other changes, BABIP could be blamed for the bulk of it. This ought to be an easily projectable player. You know he’s not going to run much. He’ll walk, he’ll strike out some, and he’ll hit for very modest power. Despite being a Dodger, Ellis is the opposite of flashy, but he’s reliable and he might be developing his throwing arm. Last season he nabbed 28 of 63 runners, although it’s possible this had more to do with the pitching staff.
I’ll throw out some framing numbers again, for A.J. Ellis:
2010: -2.0 strikes/game
2011: -1.1
2012: -1.0
2013: -0.5
It stands to reason that pitch-framing could be coachable. It stands to reason that Ellis could be getting better in that department. It stands to reason the Dodgers are pretty happy with their catching situation, all things considered.
#11 Padres
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yasmani Grandal 384 .252 .345 .390 .326 4.7 -0.4 -1.5 2.4
Nick Hundley 224 .227 .287 .369 .287 -4.1 -0.6 0.8 0.8
Rene Rivera 32 .230 .275 .338 .271 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1
Total 640 .242 .322 .380 .310 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 3.2
Setting a minimum of 1,000 called pitches caught, last year’s best framer, according to Matthew Carruth, was Rene Rivera. In second was Yasmani Grandal. The season before, Grandal finished sixth, and I’ve had it relayed to me that the Padres do believe in this stuff, maybe because they have to but maybe also because they’re smart baseball men who are trying to take advantage of what remains an over-cautious market.
So Grandal’s a surprisingly capable receiver. The question, oddly, is his bat, which last year dropped 44 points to a 100 wRC+. People continue to wonder about his power on the other side of a PED suspension, but our system sees him as a threat. There’s little doubt about the walks and the strikeouts, and the power potential is still in there. Should Grandal end up slumping or hurt, there are worse backups around than Nick Hundley, who had a big bounceback 2013. Though he wasn’t extraordinary, he was clearly happy to have put his injury problems behind him.
#12 Pirates
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Russell Martin 448 .231 .323 .374 .311 -0.8 -0.3 5.0 2.8
Chris Stewart 128 .232 .289 .307 .267 -4.6 0.0 0.2 0.2
Tony Sanchez 64 .234 .300 .361 .294 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Total 640 .232 .314 .359 .301 -6.5 -0.3 4.9 3.2
Behold, the position that in large part helped the Pirates finally return to the playoffs. Behold, the catcher that the Yankees probably missed every single day. Martin’s still hitting, even if he’s come down from what he was in 2007, and he was tremendously valuable behind the plate, blocking pitches and gunning down a whole lot of baserunners. And, yeah, Martin’s a quality pitch-receiver, which is something the Pirates hadn’t had in way too many years. Martin is the rare free-agent acquisition who looks like a bargain, and behind him, Stewart can at least approximate some of his skills. Tony Sanchez is of interest, and he makes for good depth, but Martin is one of those guys who makes the Pirates tick. So, he’s one of those guys the Pirates would prefer not to have to play without for too long a stretch.
#13 Braves
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Evan Gattis 352 .252 .302 .464 .330 4.0 -0.4 -2.6 2.0
Gerald Laird 224 .243 .309 .348 .292 -4.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8
Ryan Doumit 64 .251 .311 .402 .312 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.3
Christian Bethancourt 45 .253 .280 .376 .287 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2
Steven Lerud 19 .193 .270 .273 .247 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 704 .248 .303 .411 .311 -2.3 -1.0 -1.7 3.2
Gattis makes for a fascinating story and an intriguing power bat. Somewhat surprisingly, he seems to be a quality receiver, too. What he’s got are some other question marks, but one should hope those question marks don’t lead the Braves to play too much of someone else, because the alternatives to Gattis are lousy. Laird doesn’t really do anything well, and though Doumit can hit some, he gives everything back as a defender in a helmet. It’s going to be a big adjustment for the Braves to enter the post-McCann era, and it’s going to sting some, but Gattis has it in him to make the adjustment tolerable. Even exciting, once every handful of at-bats. After how bad the spring has gone so far, the Braves could use some Evan Gattis optimism.
#14 Diamondbacks
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Miguel Montero 544 .251 .339 .398 .324 0.3 -1.5 3.0 3.1
Henry Blanco 51 .211 .275 .334 .272 -2.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Tuffy Gosewisch 45 .226 .267 .342 .269 -1.9 -0.1 0.2 0.0
Total 640 .246 .329 .388 .316 -3.7 -1.8 3.2 3.2
When did the decline begin? On the one hand, Miguel Montero’s wRC+ peaked in 2012 before plummeting in 2013. On the other hand, he was coming off a career-high BABIP and a career-low ISO, and then last season the BABIP regressed while the ISO dropped further. The result was that Montero was worth hardly anything, and even a better second half didn’t make the picture all the more rosy. Montero, now, is projected to bounce back. Our numbers put him solidly in between his last two seasons. But the downside potential exists, and I’m not sure about relief in the persons of Henry Blanco or Tuffy Gosewisch. By the way, Montero’s receiving numbers have also declined. This reads like an awful negative paragraph.
#15 Tigers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Alex Avila 416 .240 .340 .399 .328 1.9 -0.6 -0.8 2.4
Bryan Holaday 173 .239 .287 .342 .280 -5.8 -0.1 0.9 0.4
Victor Martinez 32 .290 .344 .426 .334 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Ramon Cabrera 19 .259 .315 .342 .293 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .243 .325 .382 .314 -4.0 -0.8 0.0 3.1
Between 2011 and 2012, Alex Avila lost a lot of power. Between 2012 and 2013, Avila lost a lot of OBP. This guy’s still just 27 years old, but it’s been quite the fall from his breakthrough year, which in some sense is reason for optimism. In that, it’s not too late for him to get back. Encouragingly, his numbers against right-handed pitchers stayed about the same, and he had a bigger second half after a miserable first half. So if you look closer, Avila is actually trending somewhat positively. He’s going to carry the load again, because he doesn’t have a lot of quality behind him, and it seems reasonable to me to project the Tigers in the middle of the pack. But if Avila’s strikeouts keep going up, that wRC+ will keep going down, and the Tigers can lose only so much value before they drop closer to their divisional rivals. They remain in a strong, dominant position, but throw enough rocks and you’ll bring down a lion.
#16 Athletics
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Derek Norris 320 .221 .319 .385 .314 -0.3 0.3 -1.2 1.7
Stephen Vogt 160 .249 .299 .378 .297 -2.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.6
John Jaso 128 .250 .357 .375 .330 1.5 -0.1 -1.0 0.8
Chris Gimenez 32 .226 .305 .317 .281 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .234 .321 .378 .311 -1.8 0.0 -3.1 3.1
Just to point something out: the A’s, here, rank 16th, while the Dodgers ranked 10th. But the Dodgers rank 10th with 3.2 WAR, while the A’s rank 16th with 3.1 WAR, so this is the part of the post where you shouldn’t care about the rankings too much. Many of these teams project more or less the same. The A’s continue to insist that John Jaso isn’t finished catching, despite his concussion trouble. What that means is that Jaso should get some playing time here. But he’ll also give some to Jaso-equivalent Stephen Vogt, and together they’ll probably platoon with Derek Norris, who’s young and good and fairly promising. Norris, also, has a little defensive skill, so he could be a quality regular down the road. For the time being, the A’s will leverage their all-around roster depth. As with many of their positions, this is neither a strength nor a weakness.
#17 Cubs
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Welington Castillo 397 .250 .323 .400 .319 -1.1 -0.3 0.8 2.1
George Kottaras 218 .216 .330 .383 .318 -0.7 -0.2 -2.1 0.8
John Baker 26 .210 .288 .277 .258 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Total 640 .237 .324 .389 .316 -3.2 -0.5 -1.5 2.9
Now we’re making our way toward the lower tier, and in Welington Castillo, we have a catcher who’s posted a .346 BABIP with three times as many strikeouts as walks. Also, he doesn’t hit for big power, and also, he doesn’t seem to receive particularly well. But Castillo’s young and you can’t ignore a 103 wRC+, and last season he did manage to reduce his strikeouts a little bit. In the event Castillo has to miss some time, the Cubs can turn to a guy who can also hit a little without really contributing a lot as a defender. That’s not fair to Castillo, who can block and throw, but I’m biased toward pitch-framing numbers and if you didn’t already know that you haven’t been paying attention. You want me to sum this up? Castillo’s fine. Could be better, but, could be worse. Not the biggest problem the Cubs are going to have. Not going to represent the organization in the All-Star Game.
#18 Blue Jays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Dioner Navarro 320 .259 .321 .411 .320 -0.5 -1.4 -0.6 1.6
Erik Kratz 256 .234 .295 .415 .308 -2.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.1
Josh Thole 32 .249 .317 .356 .297 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
A.J. Jimenez 32 .251 .289 .357 .285 -0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1
Total 640 .248 .309 .407 .312 -4.8 -1.8 -1.2 2.8
Look, I could write words, and if you’re reading these words, you would’ve read those words. I could tell you all about Dioner Navarro’s upside. I could tell you some things about Erik Kratz’s apparent defensive ability. I could tell you how Navarro’s deal could look like a real bargain, even though the Jays themselves claimed they paid more than they would’ve liked. But this section absolutely isn’t about Dioner Navarro and Erik Kratz. It’s about how the Blue Jays don’t have J.P. Arencibia anymore. Last season J.P. Arencibia posted a .227 OBP. Things are going to be better. Things are going to be better, you guys. You just have to believe. You don’t even have to believe. They just will be.
#19 Mets
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Travis d’Arnaud 416 .243 .306 .396 .309 -0.8 -0.1 -1.0 2.0
Anthony Recker 173 .225 .296 .384 .300 -1.6 -0.2 -1.0 0.6
Juan Centeno 32 .252 .292 .315 .271 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
Taylor Teagarden 19 .198 .256 .335 .263 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 640 .238 .301 .387 .303 -4.1 -0.3 -1.8 2.7
While d’Arnaud is a question mark, it’s interesting that the projection systems are in agreement. Steamer projects a 99 wRC+. ZiPS projects a 97 wRC+. Oliver projects a 99 wRC+. The Fans project a 117 wRC+, but that’s about the same after you make the usual Fan adjustment. Everyone agrees that d’Arnaud will continue to walk, and everyone agrees that d’Arnaud will start to show some more of the power he’s only so far shown in hitter-friendly environments. It isn’t known whether d’Arnaud will end up all right or legitimately good, but this is a position of promise for an organization that needs more of them. In the short term, d’Arnaud will blend discipline with defensive skills. If he hits for this much power, the Mets will be happy. If he hits beyond this, the Mets will be thrilled.
#20 Phillies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Carlos Ruiz 416 .272 .340 .405 .326 2.3 -0.8 2.2 2.6
Wil Nieves 128 .240 .274 .319 .261 -5.7 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1
Cameron Rupp 96 .225 .277 .345 .276 -3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2
Total 640 .258 .318 .378 .305 -6.6 -1.2 1.5 2.7
Ruiz was absolutely outstanding in 2012. Then he served a suspension and, while his walks and strikeouts stayed the same, he gave away more than half his ISO along with a good chunk of his BABIP. Now Ruiz is just an aging catcher coming off the worst season he’s had since 2008, so this is a situation where you can see both the bounceback upside and the potential for the Phillies to have a nightmare on their hands. Not long ago, Ruiz was a quality regular. Sometimes, however, when catchers go, they just go. I guess it could be worse. All the projected teams below the Phillies project worse, after all. Here’s one of them!
#21 Rockies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Wilin Rosario 512 .272 .305 .481 .340 0.6 -0.1 -3.7 2.4
Michael McKenry 77 .250 .314 .417 .320 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.2
Jordan Pacheco 51 .272 .316 .374 .305 -1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .270 .307 .465 .335 -1.8 -0.2 -4.3 2.7
The thing that makes me chuckle is that I’m writing about Wilin Rosario in a post about catchers. Rosario is as raw as it gets, defensively, and in a way, he’s about as raw as it gets offensively, too. A list of the things he doesn’t do: walk, block, frame, make contact, throw with consistent accuracy. A list of the things he does do: hit for power, hit for some average. Rosario is dangerous at the plate, some of the time, and he’s still young enough to become a real terror, but the likelihood is that if that happens, it’ll happen for him at another defensive position. He’s made some improvements as a catcher, but it seems to me he still has too far to go.
#22 Angels
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Hank Conger 352 .243 .303 .380 .301 -3.5 -0.4 -2.3 1.3
Chris Iannetta 256 .217 .337 .361 .315 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 1.3
John Hester 32 .211 .270 .324 .265 -1.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Total 640 .232 .315 .370 .304 -4.4 -1.1 -3.2 2.7
This is a fairly unremarkable duo. The great separation: last season, as a receiver, Iannetta was about 1.1 strikes below average per game. Conger, meanwhile, was about 2.1 strikes above average per game, standing out as one of baseball’s premier pitch-framers. Whether or not Mike Scioscia’s aware of that, I can’t say, but the potential is there for Conger to have a lot more value and help to push the Angels toward the playoff race. Iannetta probably has more of the offensive upside, but neither guy is a slugger and neither guy is a star. John Hester is here, too. Say hi.
#23 Rays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Hanigan 352 .246 .336 .317 .289 -6.3 -0.4 4.4 1.7
Jose Molina 288 .225 .283 .319 .269 -9.7 -0.9 2.9 0.8
Total 640 .236 .312 .318 .280 -16.0 -1.4 7.3 2.5
Do I even need to tell you? The primary reason the Rays have both these guys isn’t included in the projection systems. So, as a result, the Rays seem underrated by the projection systems. It’s no secret that Jose Molina can’t really hit. Ryan Hanigan’s best days might be behind him. He certainly can’t hit for much power. But Molina’s here to catch borderline strikes, and the same goes for Hanigan, and if you believe strongly in those skills, the Rays ought to show up sooner in the list. A lot of teams are skeptical. The Rays aren’t skeptical. You choose who to trust, I can’t make up your mind.
#24 Twins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Kurt Suzuki 384 .247 .301 .372 .294 -7.3 -0.4 0.3 1.4
Josmil Pinto 192 .256 .316 .397 .314 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 1.0
Chris Herrmann 64 .221 .288 .317 .272 -2.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total 640 .247 .304 .374 .298 -10.2 -0.5 0.1 2.5
It doesn’t get less exciting than Kurt Suzuki. From our standpoint, I mean. Pitchers love him, he’s a great guy, calls a good game, but he does nothing for me as a player and I’m guessing he does nothing for you. A fun thing I heard over the weekend: Suzuki is able enough as a receiver, but he’s hurt by his short arms, causing him to stab for pitches he shouldn’t have to stab or reach for. Consider him one of those guys who might be more valuable in real life than he seems to be on his FanGraphs page. Josmil Pinto is the real intrigue here, after hitting his way up the organizational ladder in 2013. The more he plays, the more interesting the Twins will be to non-Twins fans, and also to Twins fans. I should’ve led with “Twins fans”.
#25 Red Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
A.J. Pierzynski 320 .268 .300 .417 .310 -3.5 -1.3 -0.1 1.3
David Ross 192 .220 .290 .377 .296 -4.3 -0.5 1.0 0.7
Christian Vazquez 51 .252 .314 .355 .299 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Daniel Butler 51 .234 .303 .377 .301 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
Ryan Lavarnway 26 .251 .315 .395 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1
Total 640 .249 .299 .396 .304 -10.1 -1.9 0.8 2.4
No one’s going to tell you the Red Sox found their solution in A.J. Pierzynski. But the Red Sox aren’t paying him to be the solution, and you’ll notice the guy they lost to free agency hasn’t shown up on the list yet. Pierzynski is perfectly fine, and a better fit for the clubhouse than he seems to be based on his Internet reputation. Behind Pierzynski, the Red Sox have maybe the best backup catcher in baseball, and if Ross had more stamina he’d have a lot more career plate appearances. This is all about buying time until the younger guys are ready, and Pierzynski makes sense as a one-year stopgap. He’s far from spectacular, but he’s reliably adequate, and the Sox are strong in other places. Expect Pierzynski to get a lot of the credit if the Sox succeed, and expect him to get a lot of the blame if they fall flat. For personality reasons, I mean.
#26 Reds
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Devin Mesoraco 384 .247 .308 .413 .313 -1.9 -0.7 0.2 1.8
Brayan Pena 224 .259 .290 .368 .289 -5.4 -1.0 -1.2 0.4
Corky Miller 32 .218 .304 .338 .289 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Total 640 .250 .301 .393 .303 -8.1 -1.8 -1.1 2.2
At some point, bat-first catchers have to swing good bats, and Devin Mesoraco hasn’t done that yet. But the projections foresee improvement, with Steamer pegging a 92 wRC+ and ZiPS going as high as 99. For as much as Mesoraco’s career numbers so far are depressed, we’re talking about just 589 plate appearances over parts of three seasons, and the guy turns 26 in the middle of June. There is significant offensive upside, and Mesoraco’s defensive game seems to be tolerable. Consider the Reds lower-tier, with an asterisk. Do I have to write about Brayan Pena and Corky Miller? I was never told that I was, specifically, so I’m going to talk about the Mariners now. Oh, great.
#27 Mariners
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Zunino 448 .231 .295 .382 .298 -7.2 0.2 -0.8 1.7
John Buck 128 .219 .293 .358 .288 -3.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4
Humberto Quintero 32 .224 .259 .320 .255 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Jesus Sucre 32 .243 .278 .307 .261 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 640 .229 .292 .370 .292 -13.3 -0.1 -1.0 2.1
The Mariners drew some criticism for promoting Mike Zunino awful aggressively. Mostly because that’s exactly what they did, but in their partial defense, they had an injury situation that all but forced their hand. Zunino didn’t do anything as a hitter in the bigs, and previous to his promotion he was in a slump in Triple-A, but there’s reason to believe for a better 2014. Zunino has fairly good power, and he’s one of those guys who’s revamped his swing, currently getting reps with it in camp. He’s now playing with experience, and his discipline isn’t a particular weakness. Elsewhere, Zunino features pretty good defensive skills. The elements are there for Zunino to be the long-term guy, like what the organization sells him as. Odds are, though, he won’t get really settled in until after 2014 is finished.
#28 Rangers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Geovany Soto 288 .225 .307 .399 .312 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 1.1
J.P. Arencibia 288 .223 .269 .419 .299 -6.4 -0.4 -1.7 0.7
Robinson Chirinos 64 .239 .309 .363 .299 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 640 .226 .290 .405 .305 -11.4 -1.5 -2.3 2.0
Well, I found J.P. Arencibia. And look, he’s projected for a big OBP improvement! I’ll say this for Arencibia: he seems to have made some dramatic steps forward with regard to framing. And Geovany Soto isn’t bad, either. Arencibia, in the past, has hit for just enough power to make himself something better than a disaster. Soto is coming off a strong offensive year as a backup, in which he hit for the power he had in 2010. It would be silly to suggest there’s no upside here. The Rangers like the way Soto catches and he could hit well enough to earn more than half the playing time. But the key is less about achieving upside, and more about avoiding downside. The Rangers just want for this to not be a problem. Anything more than that would be gravy.
#29 Marlins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 416 .235 .303 .408 .311 -2.2 -0.1 -3.3 1.6
Jeff Mathis 160 .200 .253 .320 .252 -8.3 -0.2 0.5 0.0
Rob Brantly 32 .241 .287 .337 .276 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 608 .226 .289 .381 .294 -11.6 -0.3 -2.8 1.7
The thing about Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t that he isn’t worth the contract he signed with the Marlins. He is worth the contract. The contract is fine. The thing about Jarrod Saltalamacchia is that he just isn’t that great. He was a two-win player a few years ago, he was a two-win player two years ago, and he was almost a four-win player last season in large part because of a .372 BABIP. Send that back down and Saltalamacchia goes back down, and we’re beyond the point at which we can still hope for him to stop striking out like a crazy person. What Saltalamacchia will do is give the Marlins a pinch of veteran adequacy. He probably won’t do much beyond that. At least he’s way better than Jeff Mathis. Just because he’s not great doesn’t mean he’s not a great improvement over the alternative.
#30 White Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Tyler Flowers 384 .206 .287 .372 .293 -9.4 -0.6 -1.8 0.9
Josh Phegley 160 .242 .281 .379 .289 -4.4 0.0 0.4 0.5
Adrian Nieto 32 .216 .286 .339 .280 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Hector Gimenez 32 .223 .285 .372 .289 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
Bryan Anderson 32 .219 .285 .347 .281 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 640 .217 .285 .371 .290 -16.9 -0.6 -1.6 1.6
Over the career equivalent of a full season, Tyler Flowers owns a 75 wRC+ with a strikeout for every three plate appearances. The strikeouts weren’t much better in Triple-A. Meanwhile, Josh Phegley, to his name, has 41 strikeouts, five walks, and four dingers. He showed some offensive promise in Triple-A but no one who watched him down the stretch last season can believe it. He chased way too often and made a habit of popping the ball in the air. Given the minor-league slash lines, the potential is there for the White Sox to actually have a pretty good catching situation. That would represent their 2014 ceiling, and the only point that would really make is that everybody in the majors is good and everybody in the majors has upside and downside. The projections have spoken: the White Sox aren’t in a good catching situation in 2014. Thankfully, for the White Sox, it isn’t about 2014. Maybe these guys will hit this year or maybe they won’t. At least then the White Sox will have their answers for when they think more about the future. It’s…it’s going to take time, for the White Sox.
2014 Positional Power Rankings: First Base.
Jeff’s already covered the catchers, so let’s move to the other end of the defensive spectrum, and look at the position on the field where teams expect the most offense.
There’s a clear top tier, with a few very great hitters at the high end before the drop-off. And then there’s the bottom. This is what the Marlins get for not spending any money. This is what the Phillies get for spending a lot of money very poorly.
#1 Tigers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Miguel Cabrera 560 .321 .409 .584 .420 42.7 -1.3 -2.7 5.1
Victor Martinez 56 .290 .344 .426 .334 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Don Kelly 49 .244 .312 .363 .301 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Jordan Lennerton 35 .230 .305 .357 .295 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .308 .392 .543 .398 41.7 -1.6 -2.7 5.2
Miguel Cabrera is so good that we docked him first base time for injury and some designated hitting, and he’s still number one. There’s some chance that he should be docked further — Victor Martinez shows up here as a better defender, and another year removed from knee surgery, he might actually show better glove at the position. That would dock Cabrera some positional value, but when you’re projected to have the best bat in the league again, you can afford to lose a run here or there. Let’s not talk about his 31-year-old hips, that’s no fun. If those do start to bark, and Martinez is also hurting, Don Kelley can slide over and replacement level at first maybe.
#2 Reds
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Joey Votto 595 .292 .418 .505 .397 36.1 -1.2 4.4 5.0
Jack Hannahan 42 .227 .305 .341 .290 -1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0
Neftali Soto 42 .237 .280 .400 .298 -0.7 0.0 -0.4 -0.1
Todd Frazier 21 .242 .312 .431 .325 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .282 .400 .485 .382 34.5 -1.3 4.2 5.0
Joey Votto is projected for the third-best offense in baseball, and he’s had better years with the glove than he did last year, so betting on a bit of a bounce back in that department makes him the second-best first baseman in the game. Talking to him last week, he said that the knees feel better a couple years removed from double meniscus surgery, and he’s not yet definitively into the post-30 phase. He’s working hard to improve once again this offseason — more on this later — and he was already so good. If he needs a day off, it’s probably glove man Jack Hannahan either playing first or pushing Todd Frazier to first. If he takes a longer break, maybe Neftali Soto gets a look. He’s already 25 and a couple years removed from his breakout season, his patience doesn’t seem to be an asset and his defense might not be either, but he did once hit 30 homers in Double-A, so there’s something interesting about him.
#3 Diamondbacks
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Paul Goldschmidt 665 .278 .369 .512 .378 28.2 0.3 4.6 4.5
Mark Trumbo 21 .261 .315 .497 .349 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Eric Chavez 14 .260 .316 .427 .321 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .277 .367 .510 .376 28.6 0.3 4.4 4.5
There were some questions about Paul Goldschmidt coming up in the minors. Would the right-hander hit right-handers enough? Would he strike out too much? Would his power translate? By not only being good enough in his rookie year, and then improving in all three of these categories in his subsequent years, the Arizona first baseman seems to have answered those questions by now. At 26, he’s the first pre-peaker, too, so if anything, he could move up the list, which is a scary thought. And having Mark Trumbo available as a backup makes this a pretty nice situation — they have some glove-first outfield replacements that would help them stay above water as a team even if Goldschmidt grabs a hammy.
#4 Dodgers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adrian Gonzalez 658 .287 .347 .468 .350 20.0 -2.7 9.4 3.7
Scott Van Slyke 28 .245 .325 .411 .324 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Justin Turner 14 .258 .310 .363 .298 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .285 .345 .464 .348 20.2 -2.7 9.2 3.8
32-year-old Adrian Gonzalez has long combined good glove with plus contact and good power to be among the game’s best at the position, so it’s no surprise to see him here. Perhaps the projected power and defensive bounce backs are a bit much for you, that would be fine, but it’s hard to argue with his ability to stay on the field. Despite a shoulder injury in the meantime, he hasn’t gone to the plate fewer than 631 times since 2006. It looks like Scott Van Slyke is making the Dodgers as his backup and an extra outfielder — independent of the health of Matt Kemp or Carl Crawford — and he’s got some decent upside, particularly if he faces lefties most of the time. The righty is patient, powerful, and has good glove. The question is ho much contact he’ll make.
#5 Orioles
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Davis 595 .267 .340 .536 .373 23.4 -0.5 -0.5 3.4
Steve Pearce 56 .248 .333 .408 .326 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Cord Phelps 49 .240 .304 .365 .297 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 0.0
Total 700 .264 .337 .514 .364 22.6 -0.6 -0.1 3.5
Chris Davis had a great year, and nobody can take that away from him. But when it comes to projection systems, the numbers have to take into account the other 1600 or so plate appearances of his career. In those PA, he didn’t walk half as much as he did last year, and his power was more outstanding than Hall of Fame level. A little bit of regression still makes him a good player, and more time at first instead of the outfield should help his defensive value. Behind him, Steve Pearce can slide over from the outfield should the need arise (he has experience at the position), but he hasn’t had much success against right-handers (66 wRC+ against them so far). Perhaps Cord Phelps would come up and help in a platoon if Davis suffers an injury.
#6 White Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Abreu 574 .271 .359 .514 .379 24.5 -1.2 -1.4 3.3
Paul Konerko 126 .261 .333 .408 .326 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 0.1
Total 700 .269 .354 .494 .369 24.7 -2.0 -2.1 3.4
The White Sox have two known entities on their way out and an unknown entity on his way in. Given that the team is most likely looking to build — if quickly, given the window Chris Sale’s amazing contract might provide — the projection for Paul Konerko might be a little aggressive in plate appearance terms. After all, he’s on a one-year deal that seems to be his swan song. Adam Dunn could play here, too, so they are set with backups. Now we get to see how Jose Abreu’s numbers — best in Cuban history — will translate to the big leagues. It’s not an easy thing to do, projecting Jose Abreu.
#7 Braves
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Freddie Freeman 560 .286 .365 .483 .367 22.7 -0.8 0.9 3.2
Evan Gattis 70 .252 .302 .464 .330 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 0.1
Chris Johnson 70 .275 .318 .420 .321 0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.0
Total 700 .281 .354 .474 .359 23.7 -0.9 -0.8 3.3
We can talk about Freddie Freeman’s power ceiling, and wonder about his batting average on balls in play, or we can just get Jeff Sullivan to write about both things for us. But he remains easily projectable. For the last two years, he’s had an isolated slugging percentages of .181 and .196, walk rates of 10.3% and 10.5%, strikeout rates of 19.2% and 20.8%, and line drive rates of 26% and 26.7%. Maybe he is who he is and that’s great. He’s also been fairly healthy, averaging over 620 plate appearances for three years. That means it’s most likely that the Braves won’t have to use their depth much and move Chris Johnson over to first or play Evan Gattis or Ryan Doumit at the position. As you can see, though, they’ve got decent backup options when it comes to bats — it’s the defense that will suffer the most when Freeman sits.
#8 Angels
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Albert Pujols 490 .278 .348 .494 .357 17.0 -1.1 3.4 2.9
Kole Calhoun 140 .260 .323 .421 .326 1.5 0.1 -0.6 0.3
Howie Kendrick 35 .277 .318 .412 .319 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Efren Navarro 35 .246 .296 .341 .283 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .273 .339 .467 .345 17.8 -1.1 3.0 3.3
With weighted offense numbers that beat Adrian Gonzalez and positive defensive value, Albert Pujols drops in the ranking due to his projected playing time. It’s important to remember that Pujols is projected for some playing time at designated hitter, too, so these projections aren’t docking him down below 500 PA because he failed to reach 600 for the first time in his career. On the other hand, Pujols is post-peak at 34 years old, and he hasn’t looked especially athletic on the bases this spring, and he does suffer from various ailments that could prove to ail him this year as well. The team is capable of shifting Kole Calhoun to first from time to time to rest Pujols, but if he misses a bit more time, they may consider prospect C.J. Cron. Cron’s plate discipline is fairly Trumboian, but so was his power until last year. If Cron finds the power swing again, he may find himself in the big leagues, spelling the starters in the corner outfield, first base, and at DH. But with management saying that’s an ‘if’ not a ‘when,’ it’s hard to say how much time Cron should be alloted.
#9 Giants
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Belt 560 .268 .352 .444 .347 16.8 -0.3 3.2 2.9
Buster Posey 70 .295 .371 .469 .364 3.0 -0.2 0.6 0.5
Michael Morse 49 .253 .305 .419 .316 0.3 -0.2 -0.9 0.0
Joaquin Arias 21 .254 .282 .344 .273 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .269 .348 .441 .345 19.5 -0.7 3.0 3.3
At 26 years old, Belt is right in his peak age range. He’s made a couple adjustments to his swing and his grip over the past two years, and each time his numbers have taken off. The defensive numbers haven’t yet quite matched his apparent impact on the field, and maybe his good walk rate isn’t as appreciated as it should be, but the young man is an above-average producer at a tough position. So far his overall offense has been almost statistically indistinguishable against lefties and righties (121 LHP wRC+ vs 126 RHP), but his team has a great offensive catcher behind the plate that shifts to first against southpaws for the most part. Mike Morse moving over to first is a medium-term solution that fits Morse’s defensive skillset — the better defender in Gregor Blanco can then handle left field again — and Joaquin Arias will take over from Posey in the odd blowout, most likely.
#10 Cubs
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Anthony Rizzo 651 .260 .341 .474 .353 15.7 -1.6 8.4 3.3
Mike Olt 49 .219 .300 .380 .301 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .257 .338 .468 .350 14.8 -1.6 8.4 3.3
Once you adjust their offense for their home parks, and then take a look at their backup options, you realize quickly how Anthony Rizzo and the Cubs might end up behind Brandon Belt and the Giants despite some superior raw numbers. This is not meant to take away from the young man in Wrigley — his combination of nascent power and above-average walk and strikeout rates bodes really well for his future — but it is to point out that the Cubs, with all their future talent on the horizon, don’t boast a ton of current depth. That should change at some point, as the prospects turn into everyday players and the veterans are pushed into depth roles. But it’s hard to know when exactly that will happen. So for now, it’s Anthony Rizzo and player x — perhaps the patience-and-power former Ranger Olt will shift over from third to help back him up in that role.
#11 Yankees
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Teixeira 560 .246 .338 .461 .348 10.9 -1.5 7.5 2.8
Carlos Beltran 70 .274 .336 .481 .352 1.6 -0.2 -0.5 0.2
Kelly Johnson 35 .234 .316 .406 .319 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Scott Sizemore 35 .238 .319 .383 .313 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Total 700 .248 .336 .457 .345 12.1 -1.7 6.5 3.0
It’s important to remember here that the “fielding” value hasn’t been adjusted for position yet. So, yeah, Mark Teixeira is still a decent defender even as a 34-year-old first baseman. But once his positional value is returned to his overall line, he still won’t offer positive value from defense. And, as bad as last year looked, Teix still takes a walk and hits for power when he’s in there. When he’s not in there? It’ll be time for something new… for Carlos Beltran perhaps. Beltran has never played first, but as a 36-year-old with cranky knees and quickly dropping defensive numbers, maybe he’ll enjoy a break from the outfield. The backup plans behind Beltran are fine in short bursts, but they would also rob flexability from the positions that are bigger question marks for the Yankees. Kelly Johnson, at least, will be needed elsewhere.
#12 Twins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Joe Mauer 518 .296 .383 .426 .354 14.4 -0.4 3.5 2.7
Chris Colabello 105 .250 .314 .420 .323 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Chris Parmelee 35 .243 .318 .380 .309 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Kennys Vargas 42 .236 .293 .388 .299 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .282 .364 .420 .344 13.8 -0.5 3.2 2.9
There’s a non-zero chance that Joe Mauer surpasses this WAR projection based on defensive value. Catching defense can be tough to measure, and Mauer’s 470 or so innings at first base can’t be terribly predictive. As a plus defensive catcher in most estimations, it seems likely even that he’ll be a good defender at first. In any case, we also don’t know how healthy he’ll be at his new position. Seems like a good idea to bake some time at designated hitter in, and to figure he’ll hit the disabled list for something. That’s why Chrises Colabello and Parmelee will have to make contributions at some point. Colabello will always have that 2013 in Rochester, and has overcome some odds, but dude was 29 in Triple-A. Parmelee probably has a little more upside if he can hit for power, so he could change this depth chart the most with this play.
#13 Royals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Eric Hosmer 665 .291 .351 .456 .350 15.1 0.8 -0.7 2.7
Billy Butler 35 .290 .366 .453 .355 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .291 .351 .455 .351 16.0 0.6 -0.7 2.9
Though Eric Hosmer is pre-peak and owns many standout tools, the overall package is left a bit wanting due to a few oddities in approach. For one, he hits a ton of ground balls and that saps his power potential. And for two, despite being an athletic player with some speed, his base running and defense aren’t quite what you might expect. Because of his age, there’s always the potential he figures certain aspects of his game out, but until he does, the projection systems will lag behind the faithcasting. Billy Butler’s best position is designated hitter, but at least he provides a good fall-back plan if Hosmer has to take a two-week (or longer) break sometime this season.
#14 Rangers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Prince Fielder 525 .283 .384 .502 .381 21.9 -2.4 -4.5 2.5
Mitch Moreland 140 .254 .317 .442 .329 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3
Robinson Chirinos 35 .239 .309 .363 .299 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .275 .367 .482 .366 21.3 -2.7 -4.4 2.7
Prince Fielder’s new skin-tight approach to his uniform does not obscure the fact that he’s still a heavy player and that heavy players don’t seem to age as well as their more normally-bodied league mates. Perhaps that’s because a lack of speed can erode value with the glove and on the base paths. With Fielder, those were never strengths, though (a shame if just because of his name). Mitch Moreland could man the position if a short-term pain arises, but because of his more inferior work against left-handers so far in his career (74 wRC+), the team might need a platoon caddy for Moreland in the case of a longer absence by their new acquisition at first. Still, Moreland represents decent depth, and can even offer some defensive replacement value, or push Fielder to designated hitter for the odd game. That can help keep a small ache from turning into a 15-day vacation for the veteran.
#15 Blue Jays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Edwin Encarnacion 315 .272 .362 .510 .375 13.2 0.0 -1.3 1.8
Adam Lind 315 .264 .325 .458 .339 4.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.8
Moises Sierra 70 .243 .295 .391 .301 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .265 .339 .474 .352 16.4 -0.8 -1.9 2.6
Speaking of injury, we have Edwin Encarnacion here, coming off of wrist surgery in the offseason. After a major change to his swing early in his Toronto career, Encarnacion has paired great power with exceptional contact for a power hitter. He’s been fairly durable over that time frame (no trips to the DL in 2011 or 2012) but he’s also missed time here and there with injuries to different body parts (142-game average since 2011). And, given his defensive range, it’s probably best if he turns in his glove more often than not. Unfortunately, Adam Lind is only marginally better with the glove and has platoon problems of his own. So, if Encarnacion takes a longer trip to the DL, the Blue Jays would need someone to face lefties and play first. Maybe Moises Sierra could do that. He has a little bit of power.
#16 Red Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Napoli 490 .244 .343 .466 .353 10.7 -0.6 2.7 2.2
Mike Carp 140 .259 .322 .440 .333 0.9 -0.1 -0.8 0.2
Daniel Nava 70 .263 .347 .395 .330 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.1
Total 700 .249 .339 .454 .346 12.0 -0.8 1.4 2.5
Mike Napoli probably won’t see an .367 batting average on balls in play in 2014. And he may see his defense regress from those great heights, even if first base is easier than catching. Given his chronic hip concerns, he’s not a great bet for a ton of playing time. The reason that works for the Red Sox is that he’s really good when he’s in — if on power and patience alone — and also because their backups are palatable. A Mike Carp and Daniel Nava platoon wouldn’t miss too much of a beat should Napoli’s hip act up this coming season. Carp would provide power against right-handers while Nava’s balanced approach would be fine over a short stretch.
#17 Indians
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nick Swisher 490 .248 .342 .419 .336 8.4 -1.0 1.5 1.8
Carlos Santana 154 .254 .367 .444 .355 5.0 -0.4 -0.6 0.7
Jason Giambi 56 .214 .311 .369 .303 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .246 .345 .420 .337 12.9 -1.7 0.6 2.4
Some of Nick Swisher’s defensive numbers weren’t pretty last year, but most of those came in the outfield, too. Carlos Santana’s slow move from behind the plate might push Swisher to the outfield again, but at least when seen in the prism of first basemen, Swisher’s glove matches his bat: they’re both fine. Not “fine” like when you ask your significant other if you can go to the beer festival on Sunday even though you promised her to take care of the child that day, but more “fine” like when you ask him or her if you can pick up dinner on the way home instead of cooking. Swisher’s athleticism seemed to project a slow decline, and we’re seeing it. He’s still decent, and a healthy shoulder could help him be better than his projection this season. Could Santana be better in the full-time role there? That’s a question for Swisher’s outfield glove to answer, as well as the Indians’ depth pieces in right field. At least with the two of them in the fold, there won’t be too much of a need for Jason Giambi to play the field.
#18 Cardinals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Adams 490 .265 .311 .462 .336 8.8 -0.5 -0.6 1.5
Allen Craig 140 .288 .343 .460 .350 4.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.6
Matt Carpenter 70 .278 .358 .418 .342 1.6 0.0 -0.1 0.3
Total 700 .271 .322 .458 .340 14.6 -0.7 -1.1 2.3
As fun as Matt Adams’ power is to watch, there are some questions about the overall value of his work. He hasn’t ever put up a league-average walk rate in the minor leagues, for example. He strikes out a fair bit. He’s also shown platoon splits, too. And, as Jeff Zimmerman showed in The Hardball Times Annual, he’s an extreme pull hitter that saw his batting average on balls in play fall as teams began to shift him in the second half of the season. All of this adds up to a non-zero chance that Allen Craig sees some time at first base this year — especially considering that the Cardinals’ best prospect is an outfielder and Allen Craig is not the fleetest of foot. It’ll probably be fine, since Adams really hit the tar out of the ball in a half-season sample last year and was supposed to do that, but you have to pencil in Matt Carpenter for a few games of backup ball at first base just in case the season turns out differently than expected for Adams.
#19 Mets
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ike Davis 420 .233 .332 .427 .332 6.9 -0.3 2.0 1.5
Lucas Duda 196 .235 .331 .402 .324 2.0 -0.4 -2.3 0.2
Josh Satin 49 .245 .328 .364 .310 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1
Brandon Allen 35 .218 .295 .383 .298 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .233 .330 .413 .327 8.4 -0.8 -0.1 1.7
Guaranteed double-takes for this ranking, I’m guessing. But instead of focusing on the faults, let’s look at the different things that the tandem at the top of this first base heap do right. Both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda put up plus walk rates on the regular. Maybe Davis has proven his power upside more than Duda, but both can put a charge into the ball. Davis has shown some up and down work with his glove over the past few years, but more often than not, he’s better than average at his position. Should either Duda or Davis make a bit more contact or make good on their power, they could easily better these projected numbers and eliminate the need for much of Josh Satin lesser power or (free) Brandon Allen and his high strikeout rates. This group is below average with a whiff of average, not quite the disasterpiece theater it has sometimes been made out to be.
#20 Padres
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yonder Alonso 560 .273 .341 .408 .327 7.3 -1.1 1.1 1.5
Kyle Blanks 105 .233 .301 .394 .306 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.1
Tommy Medica 35 .235 .303 .410 .314 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .265 .333 .406 .324 7.0 -1.1 0.8 1.6
The Cuban sprays the ball to all fields, has good walk and strikeout rates, and has the upside to better his work in the field. Alonso has also been hurt and his power has been inconsistent on the field, so he hasn’t quite made the statistical case for a better projection. It’s probably fair to say that scouts were higher on him than his production in the bigs so far might suggest, and at 27 years old, he’s (maybe) pre-peak. Putting his tools into better on-field results would push this ranking, but there’s also the risk that another injury pushes big Kyle Blanks and his big strikeout rates to the plate more often this year. If both of those things happen and Blanks doesn’t make good on some of the strides he made last year, maybe the team turns to Tommy Medica despite the fact that the non-prospect has been a bit old for his levels, has played in hitter’s parks most recently, and has seen his strikeout rate get worse as he’s ascended. Alonso still has the best upside of the crew.
#21 Rays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
James Loney 553 .268 .321 .386 .309 -1.5 -0.7 5.1 1.2
Sean Rodriguez 105 .231 .305 .371 .300 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.2
Ben Zobrist 42 .262 .352 .416 .338 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.2
Total 700 .262 .321 .385 .309 -1.6 -0.6 6.5 1.6
James Loney is cheap, and with a little platoon help, he can help the Rays get almost league-average production from a position that normally demands high free agent prices. Loney pairs good fielding with a lot of contact and has value above replacement most of the time. So that’s an accomplishment for the team and the player. But it can’t go without notice that Loney often puts up power numbers that would look more at home on the middle infield, and that he’s been worse against southpaws for his career (82 wRC+ vs LHP, 113 vs RHP). That could require some work from backup middle infielder Sean Rodriguez against lefties even when he’s healthy, and maybe occasional help from super utility man extraordinaire Ben Zobrist when he’s not.
#22 Nationals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam LaRoche 490 .246 .328 .432 .330 4.9 -1.7 2.7 1.3
Tyler Moore 175 .242 .292 .433 .315 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Ryan Zimmerman 35 .275 .344 .463 .351 0.9 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .246 .320 .434 .327 5.6 -1.7 2.5 1.6
Adam LaRoche used to be good for 25 home runs, an above-average walk rate, and some value-stealing strikeouts every year. But he’s 34 years old now, so it’s no surprise that there’s been some erosion on many fronts over the past two years. Most worrisome, maybe, have been his worsening platoon splits. His swing and stance may not ever have been great against lefties, but he’s been worse than league average against southpaws five out of the last six years. That means work for right-handed 27-year-old Tyler Moore even when LaRoche is going well. Moore has some promising power perhaps, but plate discipline problems make him a worse option for the future. This might be a position in transition for the Nationals — Ryan Zimmerman brought his first-base glove to camp and was told he might get ten starts at the position over the course of the year. His throws to first seem to suggest that this is a good long-term idea.
#23 Athletics
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Moss 490 .240 .316 .456 .335 7.9 -0.9 -2.5 1.3
Nate Freiman 105 .246 .302 .386 .303 -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0
Daric Barton 70 .242 .349 .354 .318 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2
Shane Peterson 35 .228 .312 .340 .293 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .241 .317 .430 .327 6.5 -1.1 -1.8 1.5
Brandon Moss changed his approach with the help of Chili Davis. He opened up his front foot and starting selling out to become the power hitter he was always meant to be, not the fourth outfielder with contact and patience his last two teams wanted him to be. And now he’s adjusting again, working on his bunting in case teams continue to shift him so very hard core. It’s really a great story. But with late career power breakouts like his, the statistical projections are going to take a skeptical approach. And the 30-year-old isn’t a great fielder, and he usually sits against lefties on his platoon-heavy team. Freiman’s numbers should be a bit better if adjusted for the fact that he’ll probably only ever see lefties (he hit .304/.352/.453 against them last year), but once again he’s a flawed option. Daric Barton has good glove and patience, but he’s not going to develop the power to make him more relevant. Since he bats left-handed, he’s going to have a harder time making this team when everyone is healthy.
#24 Rockies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Morneau 490 .280 .345 .468 .353 5.5 -1.3 0.8 1.2
Michael Cuddyer 105 .288 .347 .482 .358 1.7 0.0 -1.7 0.1
Ryan Wheeler 35 .273 .315 .415 .318 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jordan Pacheco 35 .272 .316 .374 .305 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Total 665 .281 .343 .462 .349 5.7 -1.4 -1.0 1.2
Justin Morneau’s weighted on-base average seems to suggest his position should rank about seven spots higher, but once you correct for his home park, it’s a lot less exciting. Then you add in the injury risk — it’s not just concussions, he’s suffered from wrist, neck and back issues over the last three years — and the declining glove, and it makes sense that the projection systems are a little skeptical that he’ll put up average value at first base. Would Michael Cuddyer be a better option? That depends a little on Morneau’s health and production in 2014, but also a little on how the various non-Carlos-Gonzalez outfielders do with their playing time. If Morneau ends up on the shelf, Cuddyer is no spring chicken himself (35 years old), and so the Rockies will eventually find themselves turning to Ryan Wheeler’s poor plate discipline, Jordan Pacheco’s light stick, and probably a bottle of antacid.
#25 Astros
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jesus Guzman 350 .251 .319 .409 .320 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.6
Jon Singleton 175 .230 .321 .384 .313 -0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2
Japhet Amador 70 .250 .301 .411 .312 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Chris Carter 70 .227 .320 .454 .338 1.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Marc Krauss 35 .224 .309 .381 .306 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .242 .317 .406 .319 0.4 -0.4 -1.0 1.0
Jesus Guzman is a low-ceiling righty that should probably only face lefties, but with Chris Carter playing elsewhere as the team cycles through possible in-house first basemen, Guzman is the one that might end up with the most playing time of the crew. Since Japhet Amador is older and not really a prospect, maybe he gets the Opening Day nod and the first 150 plate appearances against right-handers at first base. But a family issue kept the big first baseman away from the team for a chunk of spring, and so it might be Marc Krauss getting first crack at proving his contact rate. In any case, Guzman’s going to be the guy that spends all season taking your ballots in the Jon Singleton Waiting Game. What Singleton does with his time (in the mid-season call-up? late-season call-up?) is also a matter of debate, as his strikeout rate hasn’t improved with more seasoning. Chris Carter may eventually take this job, and that’s why he shows up in the bunch.
#26 Mariners
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Smoak 525 .236 .325 .406 .323 1.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.8
Logan Morrison 105 .245 .331 .413 .326 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Nick Franklin 35 .246 .318 .391 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Willie Bloomquist 35 .263 .304 .338 .284 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Total 700 .239 .324 .403 .321 1.4 -2.0 -1.5 0.9
If it’s really true that Smoak is better against righties (101 career wRC+) than lefties (82), then that’ll make for an awkward platoon with the newcoming lefty Logan Morrison, who has also been better against righties than lefties. Morrison is 26, Smoak is 27, but both have under-shot their expectations. Morrison might have shown better plate discipline, but his power and health have been more inconsistent. Maybe with the power of platoons, these two can outperform their overall batting lines and do better than this projection. It requires some good health not only here, but also in the corner outfield and DH. Given the older guys that are at the other positions, it makes sense that a backup infielder will have to step in and help the crew at first at some point.
#27 Brewers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Juan Francisco 420 .241 .293 .449 .321 0.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.4
Mark Reynolds 210 .227 .329 .457 .344 4.0 -0.3 -1.5 0.5
Lyle Overbay 28 .238 .299 .388 .302 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Sean Halton 21 .243 .298 .392 .303 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hunter Morris 21 .242 .286 .425 .309 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .237 .304 .447 .326 3.6 -0.8 -3.0 0.9
Juan Francisco’s one tool and left-handedness puts him in the catbird seat for one of the worst first base groups in baseball. He can put a charge into the ball, but he doesn’t add value anywhere else. Mark Reynolds just hit his first homer of the spring, but his right-handedness and power/patience package — as well as his age compared to Lyle Overbay — probably makes him the backup/platoon first baseman most of the year. Lyle Overbay is still in camp, but at 37, and with his recent track record, he probably makes more sense on a contender’s taxi squad if he decides to stay in baseball. There’s a decent chance neither of the veterans makes it out of April, in which case it would be time to give more plate appearances to the recently outrighted Sean Halton or Hunter Morris. Neither of the younger guys really has the upside to be league average at first, most likely, and that’s how you end up with a group like this. Probably fine for a team that’s looking to build, but it doesn’t really look like it will produce a long-term solution without help.
#28 Pirates
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Gaby Sanchez 280 .252 .334 .399 .324 2.3 -0.2 1.0 0.7
Andrew Lambo 203 .231 .288 .404 .302 -1.8 0.0 -0.7 0.0
Travis Snider 154 .246 .307 .392 .306 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Chris McGuiness 28 .222 .300 .345 .289 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0
Travis Ishikawa 35 .238 .306 .362 .295 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .242 .312 .395 .311 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 0.8
For a team that’s looking to win now, this is one terrible depth chart. Travis Snider is past the pooping or getting off the pottie moment, most likely, but he’ll get another shot at playing time perhaps. Andrew Lambo has some promise (his power has risen in recent years in the minor leagues) but with every step forward, he seems to bring a step backward (his strikeout rates have also jumped). If he beats his projections, maybe he can form a decent platoon with Gaby Sanchez and push this overall number closer to two wins and an average rating. But if he doesn’t, behind them there’s only a Rule 5 acquisition with questionable power and contact skills (Chris McGuinness) and an 30-year-old lefty with a revamped swing looking at one of his final chances. This is why the Ike Davis trade rumors won’t go away.
#29 Phillies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Howard 490 .238 .312 .446 .324 2.2 -2.8 -4.4 0.1
Darin Ruf 175 .244 .317 .410 .320 0.2 -0.3 -1.2 0.1
Kevin Frandsen 35 .265 .309 .363 .297 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .241 .313 .433 .322 1.9 -3.1 -5.6 0.2
This is probably not the projection Ruben Amaro, Jr was hoping out of year three of Howard’s five-year $125 million-dollar extension when he signed the first baseman before his original contract was up. The last few years have seen Howard’s contact rate, platoon splits and power all get worse, and the first two of those were already questionable when he inked that contract. Darin Ruf is an old rookie without a ton of projection, but he’s cheaper and and has some power of his own. At 33 old, a mini-resurgence from Howard isn’t impossible, but it might only be enough for management to find a way to jettison some piece of his contract and move the youngster in. Either way, we’re all hoping that Kevin Frandsen mostly plays at other infield positions despite some of his nicer (small sample) numbers over the past two years.
#30 Marlins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Garrett Jones 420 .244 .306 .426 .319 0.4 -1.1 -2.4 0.2
Greg Dobbs 175 .245 .295 .345 .279 -5.4 -0.3 -1.4 -0.5
Jeff Baker 56 .245 .300 .389 .302 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Justin Bour 49 .227 .287 .351 .279 -1.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Total 700 .243 .301 .397 .305 -7.2 -1.4 -3.6 -0.4
This list is not great. It could be worse, though. If we listed some of the other players that might get time at first, it would look worse. Ty Wigginton, though, is needed at third base and Jordany Valdespin was headed this way at some point. So this is your list of replacement level first basemen, all in camp on tiny deals, flaws and all. Maybe Garret Jones and Jeff Baker can form a platoon that pushes this WAR total over zero! They both have power and can hit opposite-handed pitchers! That’s something to look forward to! Right?
There’s a clear top tier, with a few very great hitters at the high end before the drop-off. And then there’s the bottom. This is what the Marlins get for not spending any money. This is what the Phillies get for spending a lot of money very poorly.
#1 Tigers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Miguel Cabrera 560 .321 .409 .584 .420 42.7 -1.3 -2.7 5.1
Victor Martinez 56 .290 .344 .426 .334 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Don Kelly 49 .244 .312 .363 .301 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Jordan Lennerton 35 .230 .305 .357 .295 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .308 .392 .543 .398 41.7 -1.6 -2.7 5.2
Miguel Cabrera is so good that we docked him first base time for injury and some designated hitting, and he’s still number one. There’s some chance that he should be docked further — Victor Martinez shows up here as a better defender, and another year removed from knee surgery, he might actually show better glove at the position. That would dock Cabrera some positional value, but when you’re projected to have the best bat in the league again, you can afford to lose a run here or there. Let’s not talk about his 31-year-old hips, that’s no fun. If those do start to bark, and Martinez is also hurting, Don Kelley can slide over and replacement level at first maybe.
#2 Reds
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Joey Votto 595 .292 .418 .505 .397 36.1 -1.2 4.4 5.0
Jack Hannahan 42 .227 .305 .341 .290 -1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0
Neftali Soto 42 .237 .280 .400 .298 -0.7 0.0 -0.4 -0.1
Todd Frazier 21 .242 .312 .431 .325 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .282 .400 .485 .382 34.5 -1.3 4.2 5.0
Joey Votto is projected for the third-best offense in baseball, and he’s had better years with the glove than he did last year, so betting on a bit of a bounce back in that department makes him the second-best first baseman in the game. Talking to him last week, he said that the knees feel better a couple years removed from double meniscus surgery, and he’s not yet definitively into the post-30 phase. He’s working hard to improve once again this offseason — more on this later — and he was already so good. If he needs a day off, it’s probably glove man Jack Hannahan either playing first or pushing Todd Frazier to first. If he takes a longer break, maybe Neftali Soto gets a look. He’s already 25 and a couple years removed from his breakout season, his patience doesn’t seem to be an asset and his defense might not be either, but he did once hit 30 homers in Double-A, so there’s something interesting about him.
#3 Diamondbacks
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Paul Goldschmidt 665 .278 .369 .512 .378 28.2 0.3 4.6 4.5
Mark Trumbo 21 .261 .315 .497 .349 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Eric Chavez 14 .260 .316 .427 .321 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .277 .367 .510 .376 28.6 0.3 4.4 4.5
There were some questions about Paul Goldschmidt coming up in the minors. Would the right-hander hit right-handers enough? Would he strike out too much? Would his power translate? By not only being good enough in his rookie year, and then improving in all three of these categories in his subsequent years, the Arizona first baseman seems to have answered those questions by now. At 26, he’s the first pre-peaker, too, so if anything, he could move up the list, which is a scary thought. And having Mark Trumbo available as a backup makes this a pretty nice situation — they have some glove-first outfield replacements that would help them stay above water as a team even if Goldschmidt grabs a hammy.
#4 Dodgers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adrian Gonzalez 658 .287 .347 .468 .350 20.0 -2.7 9.4 3.7
Scott Van Slyke 28 .245 .325 .411 .324 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
Justin Turner 14 .258 .310 .363 .298 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .285 .345 .464 .348 20.2 -2.7 9.2 3.8
32-year-old Adrian Gonzalez has long combined good glove with plus contact and good power to be among the game’s best at the position, so it’s no surprise to see him here. Perhaps the projected power and defensive bounce backs are a bit much for you, that would be fine, but it’s hard to argue with his ability to stay on the field. Despite a shoulder injury in the meantime, he hasn’t gone to the plate fewer than 631 times since 2006. It looks like Scott Van Slyke is making the Dodgers as his backup and an extra outfielder — independent of the health of Matt Kemp or Carl Crawford — and he’s got some decent upside, particularly if he faces lefties most of the time. The righty is patient, powerful, and has good glove. The question is ho much contact he’ll make.
#5 Orioles
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Chris Davis 595 .267 .340 .536 .373 23.4 -0.5 -0.5 3.4
Steve Pearce 56 .248 .333 .408 .326 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Cord Phelps 49 .240 .304 .365 .297 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 0.0
Total 700 .264 .337 .514 .364 22.6 -0.6 -0.1 3.5
Chris Davis had a great year, and nobody can take that away from him. But when it comes to projection systems, the numbers have to take into account the other 1600 or so plate appearances of his career. In those PA, he didn’t walk half as much as he did last year, and his power was more outstanding than Hall of Fame level. A little bit of regression still makes him a good player, and more time at first instead of the outfield should help his defensive value. Behind him, Steve Pearce can slide over from the outfield should the need arise (he has experience at the position), but he hasn’t had much success against right-handers (66 wRC+ against them so far). Perhaps Cord Phelps would come up and help in a platoon if Davis suffers an injury.
#6 White Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jose Abreu 574 .271 .359 .514 .379 24.5 -1.2 -1.4 3.3
Paul Konerko 126 .261 .333 .408 .326 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 0.1
Total 700 .269 .354 .494 .369 24.7 -2.0 -2.1 3.4
The White Sox have two known entities on their way out and an unknown entity on his way in. Given that the team is most likely looking to build — if quickly, given the window Chris Sale’s amazing contract might provide — the projection for Paul Konerko might be a little aggressive in plate appearance terms. After all, he’s on a one-year deal that seems to be his swan song. Adam Dunn could play here, too, so they are set with backups. Now we get to see how Jose Abreu’s numbers — best in Cuban history — will translate to the big leagues. It’s not an easy thing to do, projecting Jose Abreu.
#7 Braves
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Freddie Freeman 560 .286 .365 .483 .367 22.7 -0.8 0.9 3.2
Evan Gattis 70 .252 .302 .464 .330 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 0.1
Chris Johnson 70 .275 .318 .420 .321 0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.0
Total 700 .281 .354 .474 .359 23.7 -0.9 -0.8 3.3
We can talk about Freddie Freeman’s power ceiling, and wonder about his batting average on balls in play, or we can just get Jeff Sullivan to write about both things for us. But he remains easily projectable. For the last two years, he’s had an isolated slugging percentages of .181 and .196, walk rates of 10.3% and 10.5%, strikeout rates of 19.2% and 20.8%, and line drive rates of 26% and 26.7%. Maybe he is who he is and that’s great. He’s also been fairly healthy, averaging over 620 plate appearances for three years. That means it’s most likely that the Braves won’t have to use their depth much and move Chris Johnson over to first or play Evan Gattis or Ryan Doumit at the position. As you can see, though, they’ve got decent backup options when it comes to bats — it’s the defense that will suffer the most when Freeman sits.
#8 Angels
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Albert Pujols 490 .278 .348 .494 .357 17.0 -1.1 3.4 2.9
Kole Calhoun 140 .260 .323 .421 .326 1.5 0.1 -0.6 0.3
Howie Kendrick 35 .277 .318 .412 .319 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Efren Navarro 35 .246 .296 .341 .283 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .273 .339 .467 .345 17.8 -1.1 3.0 3.3
With weighted offense numbers that beat Adrian Gonzalez and positive defensive value, Albert Pujols drops in the ranking due to his projected playing time. It’s important to remember that Pujols is projected for some playing time at designated hitter, too, so these projections aren’t docking him down below 500 PA because he failed to reach 600 for the first time in his career. On the other hand, Pujols is post-peak at 34 years old, and he hasn’t looked especially athletic on the bases this spring, and he does suffer from various ailments that could prove to ail him this year as well. The team is capable of shifting Kole Calhoun to first from time to time to rest Pujols, but if he misses a bit more time, they may consider prospect C.J. Cron. Cron’s plate discipline is fairly Trumboian, but so was his power until last year. If Cron finds the power swing again, he may find himself in the big leagues, spelling the starters in the corner outfield, first base, and at DH. But with management saying that’s an ‘if’ not a ‘when,’ it’s hard to say how much time Cron should be alloted.
#9 Giants
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Belt 560 .268 .352 .444 .347 16.8 -0.3 3.2 2.9
Buster Posey 70 .295 .371 .469 .364 3.0 -0.2 0.6 0.5
Michael Morse 49 .253 .305 .419 .316 0.3 -0.2 -0.9 0.0
Joaquin Arias 21 .254 .282 .344 .273 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .269 .348 .441 .345 19.5 -0.7 3.0 3.3
At 26 years old, Belt is right in his peak age range. He’s made a couple adjustments to his swing and his grip over the past two years, and each time his numbers have taken off. The defensive numbers haven’t yet quite matched his apparent impact on the field, and maybe his good walk rate isn’t as appreciated as it should be, but the young man is an above-average producer at a tough position. So far his overall offense has been almost statistically indistinguishable against lefties and righties (121 LHP wRC+ vs 126 RHP), but his team has a great offensive catcher behind the plate that shifts to first against southpaws for the most part. Mike Morse moving over to first is a medium-term solution that fits Morse’s defensive skillset — the better defender in Gregor Blanco can then handle left field again — and Joaquin Arias will take over from Posey in the odd blowout, most likely.
#10 Cubs
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Anthony Rizzo 651 .260 .341 .474 .353 15.7 -1.6 8.4 3.3
Mike Olt 49 .219 .300 .380 .301 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .257 .338 .468 .350 14.8 -1.6 8.4 3.3
Once you adjust their offense for their home parks, and then take a look at their backup options, you realize quickly how Anthony Rizzo and the Cubs might end up behind Brandon Belt and the Giants despite some superior raw numbers. This is not meant to take away from the young man in Wrigley — his combination of nascent power and above-average walk and strikeout rates bodes really well for his future — but it is to point out that the Cubs, with all their future talent on the horizon, don’t boast a ton of current depth. That should change at some point, as the prospects turn into everyday players and the veterans are pushed into depth roles. But it’s hard to know when exactly that will happen. So for now, it’s Anthony Rizzo and player x — perhaps the patience-and-power former Ranger Olt will shift over from third to help back him up in that role.
#11 Yankees
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mark Teixeira 560 .246 .338 .461 .348 10.9 -1.5 7.5 2.8
Carlos Beltran 70 .274 .336 .481 .352 1.6 -0.2 -0.5 0.2
Kelly Johnson 35 .234 .316 .406 .319 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Scott Sizemore 35 .238 .319 .383 .313 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0
Total 700 .248 .336 .457 .345 12.1 -1.7 6.5 3.0
It’s important to remember here that the “fielding” value hasn’t been adjusted for position yet. So, yeah, Mark Teixeira is still a decent defender even as a 34-year-old first baseman. But once his positional value is returned to his overall line, he still won’t offer positive value from defense. And, as bad as last year looked, Teix still takes a walk and hits for power when he’s in there. When he’s not in there? It’ll be time for something new… for Carlos Beltran perhaps. Beltran has never played first, but as a 36-year-old with cranky knees and quickly dropping defensive numbers, maybe he’ll enjoy a break from the outfield. The backup plans behind Beltran are fine in short bursts, but they would also rob flexability from the positions that are bigger question marks for the Yankees. Kelly Johnson, at least, will be needed elsewhere.
#12 Twins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Joe Mauer 518 .296 .383 .426 .354 14.4 -0.4 3.5 2.7
Chris Colabello 105 .250 .314 .420 .323 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Chris Parmelee 35 .243 .318 .380 .309 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Kennys Vargas 42 .236 .293 .388 .299 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .282 .364 .420 .344 13.8 -0.5 3.2 2.9
There’s a non-zero chance that Joe Mauer surpasses this WAR projection based on defensive value. Catching defense can be tough to measure, and Mauer’s 470 or so innings at first base can’t be terribly predictive. As a plus defensive catcher in most estimations, it seems likely even that he’ll be a good defender at first. In any case, we also don’t know how healthy he’ll be at his new position. Seems like a good idea to bake some time at designated hitter in, and to figure he’ll hit the disabled list for something. That’s why Chrises Colabello and Parmelee will have to make contributions at some point. Colabello will always have that 2013 in Rochester, and has overcome some odds, but dude was 29 in Triple-A. Parmelee probably has a little more upside if he can hit for power, so he could change this depth chart the most with this play.
#13 Royals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Eric Hosmer 665 .291 .351 .456 .350 15.1 0.8 -0.7 2.7
Billy Butler 35 .290 .366 .453 .355 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Total 700 .291 .351 .455 .351 16.0 0.6 -0.7 2.9
Though Eric Hosmer is pre-peak and owns many standout tools, the overall package is left a bit wanting due to a few oddities in approach. For one, he hits a ton of ground balls and that saps his power potential. And for two, despite being an athletic player with some speed, his base running and defense aren’t quite what you might expect. Because of his age, there’s always the potential he figures certain aspects of his game out, but until he does, the projection systems will lag behind the faithcasting. Billy Butler’s best position is designated hitter, but at least he provides a good fall-back plan if Hosmer has to take a two-week (or longer) break sometime this season.
#14 Rangers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Prince Fielder 525 .283 .384 .502 .381 21.9 -2.4 -4.5 2.5
Mitch Moreland 140 .254 .317 .442 .329 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3
Robinson Chirinos 35 .239 .309 .363 .299 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .275 .367 .482 .366 21.3 -2.7 -4.4 2.7
Prince Fielder’s new skin-tight approach to his uniform does not obscure the fact that he’s still a heavy player and that heavy players don’t seem to age as well as their more normally-bodied league mates. Perhaps that’s because a lack of speed can erode value with the glove and on the base paths. With Fielder, those were never strengths, though (a shame if just because of his name). Mitch Moreland could man the position if a short-term pain arises, but because of his more inferior work against left-handers so far in his career (74 wRC+), the team might need a platoon caddy for Moreland in the case of a longer absence by their new acquisition at first. Still, Moreland represents decent depth, and can even offer some defensive replacement value, or push Fielder to designated hitter for the odd game. That can help keep a small ache from turning into a 15-day vacation for the veteran.
#15 Blue Jays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Edwin Encarnacion 315 .272 .362 .510 .375 13.2 0.0 -1.3 1.8
Adam Lind 315 .264 .325 .458 .339 4.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.8
Moises Sierra 70 .243 .295 .391 .301 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .265 .339 .474 .352 16.4 -0.8 -1.9 2.6
Speaking of injury, we have Edwin Encarnacion here, coming off of wrist surgery in the offseason. After a major change to his swing early in his Toronto career, Encarnacion has paired great power with exceptional contact for a power hitter. He’s been fairly durable over that time frame (no trips to the DL in 2011 or 2012) but he’s also missed time here and there with injuries to different body parts (142-game average since 2011). And, given his defensive range, it’s probably best if he turns in his glove more often than not. Unfortunately, Adam Lind is only marginally better with the glove and has platoon problems of his own. So, if Encarnacion takes a longer trip to the DL, the Blue Jays would need someone to face lefties and play first. Maybe Moises Sierra could do that. He has a little bit of power.
#16 Red Sox
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Mike Napoli 490 .244 .343 .466 .353 10.7 -0.6 2.7 2.2
Mike Carp 140 .259 .322 .440 .333 0.9 -0.1 -0.8 0.2
Daniel Nava 70 .263 .347 .395 .330 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.1
Total 700 .249 .339 .454 .346 12.0 -0.8 1.4 2.5
Mike Napoli probably won’t see an .367 batting average on balls in play in 2014. And he may see his defense regress from those great heights, even if first base is easier than catching. Given his chronic hip concerns, he’s not a great bet for a ton of playing time. The reason that works for the Red Sox is that he’s really good when he’s in — if on power and patience alone — and also because their backups are palatable. A Mike Carp and Daniel Nava platoon wouldn’t miss too much of a beat should Napoli’s hip act up this coming season. Carp would provide power against right-handers while Nava’s balanced approach would be fine over a short stretch.
#17 Indians
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Nick Swisher 490 .248 .342 .419 .336 8.4 -1.0 1.5 1.8
Carlos Santana 154 .254 .367 .444 .355 5.0 -0.4 -0.6 0.7
Jason Giambi 56 .214 .311 .369 .303 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .246 .345 .420 .337 12.9 -1.7 0.6 2.4
Some of Nick Swisher’s defensive numbers weren’t pretty last year, but most of those came in the outfield, too. Carlos Santana’s slow move from behind the plate might push Swisher to the outfield again, but at least when seen in the prism of first basemen, Swisher’s glove matches his bat: they’re both fine. Not “fine” like when you ask your significant other if you can go to the beer festival on Sunday even though you promised her to take care of the child that day, but more “fine” like when you ask him or her if you can pick up dinner on the way home instead of cooking. Swisher’s athleticism seemed to project a slow decline, and we’re seeing it. He’s still decent, and a healthy shoulder could help him be better than his projection this season. Could Santana be better in the full-time role there? That’s a question for Swisher’s outfield glove to answer, as well as the Indians’ depth pieces in right field. At least with the two of them in the fold, there won’t be too much of a need for Jason Giambi to play the field.
#18 Cardinals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Matt Adams 490 .265 .311 .462 .336 8.8 -0.5 -0.6 1.5
Allen Craig 140 .288 .343 .460 .350 4.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.6
Matt Carpenter 70 .278 .358 .418 .342 1.6 0.0 -0.1 0.3
Total 700 .271 .322 .458 .340 14.6 -0.7 -1.1 2.3
As fun as Matt Adams’ power is to watch, there are some questions about the overall value of his work. He hasn’t ever put up a league-average walk rate in the minor leagues, for example. He strikes out a fair bit. He’s also shown platoon splits, too. And, as Jeff Zimmerman showed in The Hardball Times Annual, he’s an extreme pull hitter that saw his batting average on balls in play fall as teams began to shift him in the second half of the season. All of this adds up to a non-zero chance that Allen Craig sees some time at first base this year — especially considering that the Cardinals’ best prospect is an outfielder and Allen Craig is not the fleetest of foot. It’ll probably be fine, since Adams really hit the tar out of the ball in a half-season sample last year and was supposed to do that, but you have to pencil in Matt Carpenter for a few games of backup ball at first base just in case the season turns out differently than expected for Adams.
#19 Mets
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ike Davis 420 .233 .332 .427 .332 6.9 -0.3 2.0 1.5
Lucas Duda 196 .235 .331 .402 .324 2.0 -0.4 -2.3 0.2
Josh Satin 49 .245 .328 .364 .310 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1
Brandon Allen 35 .218 .295 .383 .298 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .233 .330 .413 .327 8.4 -0.8 -0.1 1.7
Guaranteed double-takes for this ranking, I’m guessing. But instead of focusing on the faults, let’s look at the different things that the tandem at the top of this first base heap do right. Both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda put up plus walk rates on the regular. Maybe Davis has proven his power upside more than Duda, but both can put a charge into the ball. Davis has shown some up and down work with his glove over the past few years, but more often than not, he’s better than average at his position. Should either Duda or Davis make a bit more contact or make good on their power, they could easily better these projected numbers and eliminate the need for much of Josh Satin lesser power or (free) Brandon Allen and his high strikeout rates. This group is below average with a whiff of average, not quite the disasterpiece theater it has sometimes been made out to be.
#20 Padres
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Yonder Alonso 560 .273 .341 .408 .327 7.3 -1.1 1.1 1.5
Kyle Blanks 105 .233 .301 .394 .306 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.1
Tommy Medica 35 .235 .303 .410 .314 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .265 .333 .406 .324 7.0 -1.1 0.8 1.6
The Cuban sprays the ball to all fields, has good walk and strikeout rates, and has the upside to better his work in the field. Alonso has also been hurt and his power has been inconsistent on the field, so he hasn’t quite made the statistical case for a better projection. It’s probably fair to say that scouts were higher on him than his production in the bigs so far might suggest, and at 27 years old, he’s (maybe) pre-peak. Putting his tools into better on-field results would push this ranking, but there’s also the risk that another injury pushes big Kyle Blanks and his big strikeout rates to the plate more often this year. If both of those things happen and Blanks doesn’t make good on some of the strides he made last year, maybe the team turns to Tommy Medica despite the fact that the non-prospect has been a bit old for his levels, has played in hitter’s parks most recently, and has seen his strikeout rate get worse as he’s ascended. Alonso still has the best upside of the crew.
#21 Rays
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
James Loney 553 .268 .321 .386 .309 -1.5 -0.7 5.1 1.2
Sean Rodriguez 105 .231 .305 .371 .300 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.2
Ben Zobrist 42 .262 .352 .416 .338 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.2
Total 700 .262 .321 .385 .309 -1.6 -0.6 6.5 1.6
James Loney is cheap, and with a little platoon help, he can help the Rays get almost league-average production from a position that normally demands high free agent prices. Loney pairs good fielding with a lot of contact and has value above replacement most of the time. So that’s an accomplishment for the team and the player. But it can’t go without notice that Loney often puts up power numbers that would look more at home on the middle infield, and that he’s been worse against southpaws for his career (82 wRC+ vs LHP, 113 vs RHP). That could require some work from backup middle infielder Sean Rodriguez against lefties even when he’s healthy, and maybe occasional help from super utility man extraordinaire Ben Zobrist when he’s not.
#22 Nationals
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Adam LaRoche 490 .246 .328 .432 .330 4.9 -1.7 2.7 1.3
Tyler Moore 175 .242 .292 .433 .315 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Ryan Zimmerman 35 .275 .344 .463 .351 0.9 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Total 700 .246 .320 .434 .327 5.6 -1.7 2.5 1.6
Adam LaRoche used to be good for 25 home runs, an above-average walk rate, and some value-stealing strikeouts every year. But he’s 34 years old now, so it’s no surprise that there’s been some erosion on many fronts over the past two years. Most worrisome, maybe, have been his worsening platoon splits. His swing and stance may not ever have been great against lefties, but he’s been worse than league average against southpaws five out of the last six years. That means work for right-handed 27-year-old Tyler Moore even when LaRoche is going well. Moore has some promising power perhaps, but plate discipline problems make him a worse option for the future. This might be a position in transition for the Nationals — Ryan Zimmerman brought his first-base glove to camp and was told he might get ten starts at the position over the course of the year. His throws to first seem to suggest that this is a good long-term idea.
#23 Athletics
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Brandon Moss 490 .240 .316 .456 .335 7.9 -0.9 -2.5 1.3
Nate Freiman 105 .246 .302 .386 .303 -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0
Daric Barton 70 .242 .349 .354 .318 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2
Shane Peterson 35 .228 .312 .340 .293 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total 700 .241 .317 .430 .327 6.5 -1.1 -1.8 1.5
Brandon Moss changed his approach with the help of Chili Davis. He opened up his front foot and starting selling out to become the power hitter he was always meant to be, not the fourth outfielder with contact and patience his last two teams wanted him to be. And now he’s adjusting again, working on his bunting in case teams continue to shift him so very hard core. It’s really a great story. But with late career power breakouts like his, the statistical projections are going to take a skeptical approach. And the 30-year-old isn’t a great fielder, and he usually sits against lefties on his platoon-heavy team. Freiman’s numbers should be a bit better if adjusted for the fact that he’ll probably only ever see lefties (he hit .304/.352/.453 against them last year), but once again he’s a flawed option. Daric Barton has good glove and patience, but he’s not going to develop the power to make him more relevant. Since he bats left-handed, he’s going to have a harder time making this team when everyone is healthy.
#24 Rockies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Morneau 490 .280 .345 .468 .353 5.5 -1.3 0.8 1.2
Michael Cuddyer 105 .288 .347 .482 .358 1.7 0.0 -1.7 0.1
Ryan Wheeler 35 .273 .315 .415 .318 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jordan Pacheco 35 .272 .316 .374 .305 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Total 665 .281 .343 .462 .349 5.7 -1.4 -1.0 1.2
Justin Morneau’s weighted on-base average seems to suggest his position should rank about seven spots higher, but once you correct for his home park, it’s a lot less exciting. Then you add in the injury risk — it’s not just concussions, he’s suffered from wrist, neck and back issues over the last three years — and the declining glove, and it makes sense that the projection systems are a little skeptical that he’ll put up average value at first base. Would Michael Cuddyer be a better option? That depends a little on Morneau’s health and production in 2014, but also a little on how the various non-Carlos-Gonzalez outfielders do with their playing time. If Morneau ends up on the shelf, Cuddyer is no spring chicken himself (35 years old), and so the Rockies will eventually find themselves turning to Ryan Wheeler’s poor plate discipline, Jordan Pacheco’s light stick, and probably a bottle of antacid.
#25 Astros
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Jesus Guzman 350 .251 .319 .409 .320 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.6
Jon Singleton 175 .230 .321 .384 .313 -0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2
Japhet Amador 70 .250 .301 .411 .312 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Chris Carter 70 .227 .320 .454 .338 1.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Marc Krauss 35 .224 .309 .381 .306 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0
Total 700 .242 .317 .406 .319 0.4 -0.4 -1.0 1.0
Jesus Guzman is a low-ceiling righty that should probably only face lefties, but with Chris Carter playing elsewhere as the team cycles through possible in-house first basemen, Guzman is the one that might end up with the most playing time of the crew. Since Japhet Amador is older and not really a prospect, maybe he gets the Opening Day nod and the first 150 plate appearances against right-handers at first base. But a family issue kept the big first baseman away from the team for a chunk of spring, and so it might be Marc Krauss getting first crack at proving his contact rate. In any case, Guzman’s going to be the guy that spends all season taking your ballots in the Jon Singleton Waiting Game. What Singleton does with his time (in the mid-season call-up? late-season call-up?) is also a matter of debate, as his strikeout rate hasn’t improved with more seasoning. Chris Carter may eventually take this job, and that’s why he shows up in the bunch.
#26 Mariners
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Justin Smoak 525 .236 .325 .406 .323 1.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.8
Logan Morrison 105 .245 .331 .413 .326 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2
Nick Franklin 35 .246 .318 .391 .313 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Willie Bloomquist 35 .263 .304 .338 .284 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Total 700 .239 .324 .403 .321 1.4 -2.0 -1.5 0.9
If it’s really true that Smoak is better against righties (101 career wRC+) than lefties (82), then that’ll make for an awkward platoon with the newcoming lefty Logan Morrison, who has also been better against righties than lefties. Morrison is 26, Smoak is 27, but both have under-shot their expectations. Morrison might have shown better plate discipline, but his power and health have been more inconsistent. Maybe with the power of platoons, these two can outperform their overall batting lines and do better than this projection. It requires some good health not only here, but also in the corner outfield and DH. Given the older guys that are at the other positions, it makes sense that a backup infielder will have to step in and help the crew at first at some point.
#27 Brewers
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Juan Francisco 420 .241 .293 .449 .321 0.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.4
Mark Reynolds 210 .227 .329 .457 .344 4.0 -0.3 -1.5 0.5
Lyle Overbay 28 .238 .299 .388 .302 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Sean Halton 21 .243 .298 .392 .303 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hunter Morris 21 .242 .286 .425 .309 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Total 700 .237 .304 .447 .326 3.6 -0.8 -3.0 0.9
Juan Francisco’s one tool and left-handedness puts him in the catbird seat for one of the worst first base groups in baseball. He can put a charge into the ball, but he doesn’t add value anywhere else. Mark Reynolds just hit his first homer of the spring, but his right-handedness and power/patience package — as well as his age compared to Lyle Overbay — probably makes him the backup/platoon first baseman most of the year. Lyle Overbay is still in camp, but at 37, and with his recent track record, he probably makes more sense on a contender’s taxi squad if he decides to stay in baseball. There’s a decent chance neither of the veterans makes it out of April, in which case it would be time to give more plate appearances to the recently outrighted Sean Halton or Hunter Morris. Neither of the younger guys really has the upside to be league average at first, most likely, and that’s how you end up with a group like this. Probably fine for a team that’s looking to build, but it doesn’t really look like it will produce a long-term solution without help.
#28 Pirates
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Gaby Sanchez 280 .252 .334 .399 .324 2.3 -0.2 1.0 0.7
Andrew Lambo 203 .231 .288 .404 .302 -1.8 0.0 -0.7 0.0
Travis Snider 154 .246 .307 .392 .306 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Chris McGuiness 28 .222 .300 .345 .289 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0
Travis Ishikawa 35 .238 .306 .362 .295 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0
Total 700 .242 .312 .395 .311 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 0.8
For a team that’s looking to win now, this is one terrible depth chart. Travis Snider is past the pooping or getting off the pottie moment, most likely, but he’ll get another shot at playing time perhaps. Andrew Lambo has some promise (his power has risen in recent years in the minor leagues) but with every step forward, he seems to bring a step backward (his strikeout rates have also jumped). If he beats his projections, maybe he can form a decent platoon with Gaby Sanchez and push this overall number closer to two wins and an average rating. But if he doesn’t, behind them there’s only a Rule 5 acquisition with questionable power and contact skills (Chris McGuinness) and an 30-year-old lefty with a revamped swing looking at one of his final chances. This is why the Ike Davis trade rumors won’t go away.
#29 Phillies
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Ryan Howard 490 .238 .312 .446 .324 2.2 -2.8 -4.4 0.1
Darin Ruf 175 .244 .317 .410 .320 0.2 -0.3 -1.2 0.1
Kevin Frandsen 35 .265 .309 .363 .297 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 700 .241 .313 .433 .322 1.9 -3.1 -5.6 0.2
This is probably not the projection Ruben Amaro, Jr was hoping out of year three of Howard’s five-year $125 million-dollar extension when he signed the first baseman before his original contract was up. The last few years have seen Howard’s contact rate, platoon splits and power all get worse, and the first two of those were already questionable when he inked that contract. Darin Ruf is an old rookie without a ton of projection, but he’s cheaper and and has some power of his own. At 33 old, a mini-resurgence from Howard isn’t impossible, but it might only be enough for management to find a way to jettison some piece of his contract and move the youngster in. Either way, we’re all hoping that Kevin Frandsen mostly plays at other infield positions despite some of his nicer (small sample) numbers over the past two years.
#30 Marlins
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
Garrett Jones 420 .244 .306 .426 .319 0.4 -1.1 -2.4 0.2
Greg Dobbs 175 .245 .295 .345 .279 -5.4 -0.3 -1.4 -0.5
Jeff Baker 56 .245 .300 .389 .302 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Justin Bour 49 .227 .287 .351 .279 -1.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Total 700 .243 .301 .397 .305 -7.2 -1.4 -3.6 -0.4
This list is not great. It could be worse, though. If we listed some of the other players that might get time at first, it would look worse. Ty Wigginton, though, is needed at third base and Jordany Valdespin was headed this way at some point. So this is your list of replacement level first basemen, all in camp on tiny deals, flaws and all. Maybe Garret Jones and Jeff Baker can form a platoon that pushes this WAR total over zero! They both have power and can hit opposite-handed pitchers! That’s something to look forward to! Right?
Nick Franklin as a Shortstop.
I don’t have much insight into the mind of the average baseball fan, but thanks to the chats that we host on this website, I’ve gotten some glimpses into the mind of the average FanGraphs reader. And, it seems to me, the average FanGraphs reader at present is wondering about two questions:
(1) Why is literally every single pitcher in baseball literally dying?
(2) Who the heck is finally going to trade for Nick Franklin?
Franklin has taken over the chat section, and for every Franklin question or comment we accept, I’d say we reject another five. Franklin’s is an unusual and compelling situation: he’s a young player, fairly highly rated, who’s all but certain to be moved because there’s nowhere for him to play. Young players aren’t often such obvious trade bait, and everyone wants to know if their team can get a new young player in a deal.
Now, this isn’t going to speculate about potential destinations. There are several potential destinations, given the number of teams that would like to acquire a cheap bat with years of control. But there’s a big flashing question regarding Franklin’s trade value: is he, or is he not, a shortstop? See, if Franklin’s a shortstop, he’d be worth more than if he were just a second baseman for the years ahead. The Mets have been scouting Franklin to see about his defense. Presumably, they’re not alone. If Franklin’s a shortstop, he’s more appealing to more teams.
And on Franklin as a shortstop, plenty of people have opinions. The goal here is to figure out what Franklin is. It’s not like he has a long big-league track record of playing the position. He’s been there for just under 21 innings. So, what we can’t do is just point to the numbers, but what we can do is try to consider all of the evidence that we do have. What are the numbers and what are the thoughts? Might we be able to establish some sort of range?
Let’s start blending. And we’ll begin with the more flattering evaluations. Here’s John Sickels from last May, when Franklin was promoted to Seattle:
All told, as a shortstop I would describe him as “adequate, has a chance to improve, workable if he hits enough.” On the other hand, I have no doubts at all about his ability to be an above-average, even excellent, gloveman at second base.
The evaluation there seems to be that Franklin is maybe a 0 shortstop, but more likely something along the lines of a -5 shortstop. Perhaps -10 — I don’t know what Sickels means by “adequate”. Let’s say somewhere between -10 and 0.
How about Keith Law? Asked whether he thinks Franklin can play short:
I actually do. Maybe somewhere between 0 to -5 runs a year on defense, but with his bat, that will work – and I won’t rule out the possibility that he can be more than that. He has unusually good instincts out there.
Law spells out the range, and hints at potential improvement down the road. “Unusually good instincts” is the best comment you’re going to read about Franklin’s defense in this post.
Now Marc Hulet, from before last season:
Franklin is reliable at shortstop, fielding everything hit to him, and has good actions but both his range and arm are fringe-average for the position. Second base would probably be his best position but Dustin Ackley is far more secure in his job than Ryan.
Hulet describes Franklin as something kind of like a Jhonny Peralta. Again, Franklin seems no better than league average, and likely a little below.
Baseball Prospectus, also last May upon Franklin’s promotion:
He is limited at shortstop, offering only modest range and an arm that earns below-average to fringe-average grades. He has decent hands and solid instincts but they are not enough to make him a palatable defender on the left side of the infield long term. If he is shifted to second base permanently, a position he has played extensively in the minor leagues, Franklin could be an average defender with an average arm for the position.
There’s a little more praise of Franklin’s instincts, but this evaluation would seem to describe Franklin as more of a -10 shortstop or so. Maybe -5 right now with decline on the way. Describing him as maybe an average defensive second baseman establishes a low ceiling for ability at short.
Do we have anything else? There is a little bit. Our own Dave Cameron has described Franklin in the recent past as not a shortstop. Through my own conversations I’ve heard expressed skepticism that Franklin is even a second baseman. Last year, in more than 800 innings, Franklin was at -7 as a second baseman by UZR, but he was at 0 by DRS. He emerged with a very low Fan Scouting Report rating. The Mariners themselves liked Franklin as a shortstop less than Brad Miller, and it seems they still think that way, despite reports that Franklin and Miller continue to compete in camp for the starting job.
But! Franklin says he played with some injuries last year. Tangotiger has demonstrated in the past that shortstops, on average, improve a little in the field until an early-career defensive peak. Franklin’s only 23 years old. And for the record, it’s not like Franklin is incapable of making a difficult play as a shortstop in the bigs. This play he made against Kole Calhoun is a play many shortstops would’ve had trouble with:
It’s interesting how much Franklin looks like Derek Jeter in that clip. Jeter, for a very long time, has been a below-average defensive shortstop. The Yankees haven’t exactly struggled to win on a consistent basis because of it. Jeter’s been good enough to play the position, and he’s offset the defense with his hitting, which is the expectation for Franklin, as well.
Putting everything together, I don’t see any reason to believe Franklin is above-average at short, right now. He might be best described as somewhere between -15 and -5, or maybe -10 and 0. If you believe in early-career defensive improvement, and if you put stock in Franklin’s offseason workouts with Barry Larkin, you might prefer the latter description. Really, we’re just talking about a handful of runs. Franklin would be expected to peak soon, and then he’d start to decline, and it wouldn’t take much of a decline to turn him into a defensive mess. So even if he’s a shortstop today, he’s probably not a shortstop further down the road.
That’s the best evaluation I can come up with. Could Franklin be a shortstop on a winning team? Shin-Soo Choo was a center fielder on a winning team. Anything’s possible. Franklin would probably end up more comfortable at second, and while he’s most familiar with short, the same goes for most players who get drafted there and end up changing to go somewhere else. If a team trades for Nick Franklin and sticks him at short, he could probably stay there without being a catastrophe for a few seasons. But he’s unlikely to be a long-term solution at the position, however important that might be. Trade for Franklin as a shortstop and you could still use some shortstop security.
The big question’s been about Nick Franklin’s defense. Seems to me the big question ought to be about Nick Franklin’s offense. He’s demonstrated that he can walk, and he’s demonstrated that he can probably hit about 15 dingers a season. To what extent are strikeouts going to remain a part of his game going forward? He struck out almost a third of the time down the stretch as a rookie. In his first exposure to Triple-A, he struck out 23% of the time. In his second exposure to Triple-A, he cut that rate in half. It’s the bat that’s going to determine whether Franklin’s a regular, and his being special depends on whether he makes more contact now that he’s gained considerable experience.
One way or another, Nick Franklin, for the next several seasons, ought to be a middle infielder. Whether he’s a good one will probably have more to do with his bat than with his glove. One question is whether Franklin’s a major-league shortstop. A more important question is whether Franklin’s a major-league regular.
(1) Why is literally every single pitcher in baseball literally dying?
(2) Who the heck is finally going to trade for Nick Franklin?
Franklin has taken over the chat section, and for every Franklin question or comment we accept, I’d say we reject another five. Franklin’s is an unusual and compelling situation: he’s a young player, fairly highly rated, who’s all but certain to be moved because there’s nowhere for him to play. Young players aren’t often such obvious trade bait, and everyone wants to know if their team can get a new young player in a deal.
Now, this isn’t going to speculate about potential destinations. There are several potential destinations, given the number of teams that would like to acquire a cheap bat with years of control. But there’s a big flashing question regarding Franklin’s trade value: is he, or is he not, a shortstop? See, if Franklin’s a shortstop, he’d be worth more than if he were just a second baseman for the years ahead. The Mets have been scouting Franklin to see about his defense. Presumably, they’re not alone. If Franklin’s a shortstop, he’s more appealing to more teams.
And on Franklin as a shortstop, plenty of people have opinions. The goal here is to figure out what Franklin is. It’s not like he has a long big-league track record of playing the position. He’s been there for just under 21 innings. So, what we can’t do is just point to the numbers, but what we can do is try to consider all of the evidence that we do have. What are the numbers and what are the thoughts? Might we be able to establish some sort of range?
Let’s start blending. And we’ll begin with the more flattering evaluations. Here’s John Sickels from last May, when Franklin was promoted to Seattle:
All told, as a shortstop I would describe him as “adequate, has a chance to improve, workable if he hits enough.” On the other hand, I have no doubts at all about his ability to be an above-average, even excellent, gloveman at second base.
The evaluation there seems to be that Franklin is maybe a 0 shortstop, but more likely something along the lines of a -5 shortstop. Perhaps -10 — I don’t know what Sickels means by “adequate”. Let’s say somewhere between -10 and 0.
How about Keith Law? Asked whether he thinks Franklin can play short:
I actually do. Maybe somewhere between 0 to -5 runs a year on defense, but with his bat, that will work – and I won’t rule out the possibility that he can be more than that. He has unusually good instincts out there.
Law spells out the range, and hints at potential improvement down the road. “Unusually good instincts” is the best comment you’re going to read about Franklin’s defense in this post.
Now Marc Hulet, from before last season:
Franklin is reliable at shortstop, fielding everything hit to him, and has good actions but both his range and arm are fringe-average for the position. Second base would probably be his best position but Dustin Ackley is far more secure in his job than Ryan.
Hulet describes Franklin as something kind of like a Jhonny Peralta. Again, Franklin seems no better than league average, and likely a little below.
Baseball Prospectus, also last May upon Franklin’s promotion:
He is limited at shortstop, offering only modest range and an arm that earns below-average to fringe-average grades. He has decent hands and solid instincts but they are not enough to make him a palatable defender on the left side of the infield long term. If he is shifted to second base permanently, a position he has played extensively in the minor leagues, Franklin could be an average defender with an average arm for the position.
There’s a little more praise of Franklin’s instincts, but this evaluation would seem to describe Franklin as more of a -10 shortstop or so. Maybe -5 right now with decline on the way. Describing him as maybe an average defensive second baseman establishes a low ceiling for ability at short.
Do we have anything else? There is a little bit. Our own Dave Cameron has described Franklin in the recent past as not a shortstop. Through my own conversations I’ve heard expressed skepticism that Franklin is even a second baseman. Last year, in more than 800 innings, Franklin was at -7 as a second baseman by UZR, but he was at 0 by DRS. He emerged with a very low Fan Scouting Report rating. The Mariners themselves liked Franklin as a shortstop less than Brad Miller, and it seems they still think that way, despite reports that Franklin and Miller continue to compete in camp for the starting job.
But! Franklin says he played with some injuries last year. Tangotiger has demonstrated in the past that shortstops, on average, improve a little in the field until an early-career defensive peak. Franklin’s only 23 years old. And for the record, it’s not like Franklin is incapable of making a difficult play as a shortstop in the bigs. This play he made against Kole Calhoun is a play many shortstops would’ve had trouble with:
It’s interesting how much Franklin looks like Derek Jeter in that clip. Jeter, for a very long time, has been a below-average defensive shortstop. The Yankees haven’t exactly struggled to win on a consistent basis because of it. Jeter’s been good enough to play the position, and he’s offset the defense with his hitting, which is the expectation for Franklin, as well.
Putting everything together, I don’t see any reason to believe Franklin is above-average at short, right now. He might be best described as somewhere between -15 and -5, or maybe -10 and 0. If you believe in early-career defensive improvement, and if you put stock in Franklin’s offseason workouts with Barry Larkin, you might prefer the latter description. Really, we’re just talking about a handful of runs. Franklin would be expected to peak soon, and then he’d start to decline, and it wouldn’t take much of a decline to turn him into a defensive mess. So even if he’s a shortstop today, he’s probably not a shortstop further down the road.
That’s the best evaluation I can come up with. Could Franklin be a shortstop on a winning team? Shin-Soo Choo was a center fielder on a winning team. Anything’s possible. Franklin would probably end up more comfortable at second, and while he’s most familiar with short, the same goes for most players who get drafted there and end up changing to go somewhere else. If a team trades for Nick Franklin and sticks him at short, he could probably stay there without being a catastrophe for a few seasons. But he’s unlikely to be a long-term solution at the position, however important that might be. Trade for Franklin as a shortstop and you could still use some shortstop security.
The big question’s been about Nick Franklin’s defense. Seems to me the big question ought to be about Nick Franklin’s offense. He’s demonstrated that he can walk, and he’s demonstrated that he can probably hit about 15 dingers a season. To what extent are strikeouts going to remain a part of his game going forward? He struck out almost a third of the time down the stretch as a rookie. In his first exposure to Triple-A, he struck out 23% of the time. In his second exposure to Triple-A, he cut that rate in half. It’s the bat that’s going to determine whether Franklin’s a regular, and his being special depends on whether he makes more contact now that he’s gained considerable experience.
One way or another, Nick Franklin, for the next several seasons, ought to be a middle infielder. Whether he’s a good one will probably have more to do with his bat than with his glove. One question is whether Franklin’s a major-league shortstop. A more important question is whether Franklin’s a major-league regular.
How the Best, Most Disciplined Hitting Prospects Have Fared.
Last week in these electronic pages — for reasons that remain opaque even to the author himself — I plumbed the depths of the 2005 edition of Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook with a view towards identifying how players distinguished for possessing certain tools (hitting for average, hitting for power, etc.) have eventually fared after graduating to the majors (or, alternatively, not graduating to the majors, from lack of opportunity/talent).
The precise method and relevant data for that small exercise are available here. The results are relatively easy to summarize, however: prospects noted within their respective organizations for their ability to hit for average and control the strike zone fared well, on the whole; prospects noted for power, footspeed, and athleticism fared markedly less well.
The table below illustrates that point further. It provides the median-level career production for each group of 30 prospects (one for each organization in 2005) corresponding to the relevant tool.
Tool PA BB% K% HRC% wRC+ WAR
ATH 401 5.5% 27.7% 1.0% 72 0.0
AVG 3092 8.5% 16.9% 3.3% 96 5.4
DIS 2128 8.6% 18.5% 2.7% 93 3.3
POW 414 7.9% 24.4% 3.7% 82 -0.1
RUN 54 3.9% 25.0% 0.0% 30 -0.5
The reader will note that, while the best-hitting and most-disciplined prospects have recorded nearly average park-adjusted hitting lines and positive WAR figures, this isn’t the case for players from the other three groups. As also noted in that post from last week, prospects from the first two groups have both graduated to the majors at a higher rate and also recorded more career marks of 5.0 WAR or higher up to the present.
Merely one season’s worth of prospects isn’t enough to render such a study exhaustive, of course. A more enterprising author than myself would certainly endeavor to collect a larger sample of data before moving on to further considerations. The present, less enterprising author, however — largely owing to his Considerable Sloth — has no interest at the moment in endeavoring to do such a thing.
A question which did present some interest, however, in the wake of that post last week concerns the future performance of prospects who were recognized as possessing both the best hit tool and best plate discipline within their respective organization. If prospects who possess one or the other were reliably able to produce competent numbers (the reasoning went), then prospects recognized for possessing both tools would likely produce even better numbers.
With a view towards addressing that question, then, what I proceeded to do was find the career numbers of all such players as had been named both their organization’s best and also most disciplined hitter by the editors of Baseball America between 2005 and -09.
Before we consider that data, I’ll note once again that there are a number of caveats that ought to be made regarding this exercise. For one: BA’s Best Tool lists represent a distillation of opinions from scouts and other industry contacts. Educated opinions, of course, but opinions nonetheless. Accordingly, there’s a lack of absolute precision. For two: talent isn’t now, and wasn’t 10 years ago, distributed evenly among all 30 organizations. The best-hitting prospect in one organization might be the fifth-best in another. The value of the Best Tool designations, for our purposes here, is that they function as a proxy for more sophisticated data that isn’t available publicly.
A table featuring the best-hitting and most disciplined prospects from 2005 to -09 is presented below. Of the 29 prospects who met the aforementioned criteria, 27 (93%) of them have recorded at least one major-league plate appearances. Of those, 12 (41%) have recorded at least 5.0 WAR over the course of their respective career — comparable rates to the hitting and discipline groups from 2005 on their own. HRC% denotes home runs on contact (that is, home runs per ball batted into fair play). WAR550 denotes WAR for every 550 plate appearances of a player’s career. Because we’re concerned with tools related exclusively to hitting, players are sorted by career wRC+ to date (as opposed to WAR, which includes defensive considerations, obviously).
Name PA BB% K% HRC% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR WAR550
Joey Votto 3790 14.9% 18.5% 6.2% .359 156 -11.4 240.1 -44.1 33.0 4.8
Andrew McCutchen 3171 11.4% 16.7% 4.5% .332 139 17.9 161.2 -2.5 27.2 4.7
Billy Butler 4208 9.2% 14.3% 3.7% .327 120 -37.0 62.2 -108.8 9.8 1.3
Jason Heyward 2170 11.4% 20.6% 4.9% .303 119 10.6 60.1 28.1 16.5 4.2
Dustin Pedroia 4548 9.3% 8.9% 2.7% .314 119 3.8 105.7 75.6 34.4 4.2
Curtis Granderson 5044 10.2% 23.1% 6.4% .305 118 27.6 136.4 22.3 33.2 3.6
Alex Gordon 3753 9.4% 20.8% 3.9% .321 110 14.2 55.6 12.7 20.1 2.9
Yonder Alonso 1121 9.3% 16.0% 2.4% .319 108 -6.2 4.2 -16.5 2.4 1.2
Chris Snelling 273 12.5% 21.6% 3.9% .300 107 -2.9 -0.5 -6.9 0.2 0.4
Jason Kubel 3707 9.1% 20.9% 5.4% .302 107 -14.5 17.6 -113.7 2.7 0.4
Gaby Sanchez 1981 10.2% 15.6% 3.7% .283 106 0.2 13.6 -23.9 5.5 1.5
Daric Barton 2021 14.1% 16.5% 2.1% .293 105 2.5 14.4 -8.2 7.6 2.1
Matt Murton 1058 8.8% 14.1% 3.6% .312 101 1.7 3.4 16.3 5.4 2.8
Scott Sizemore 598 11.4% 25.8% 3.7% .311 98 0.5 -1.0 -7.1 1.2 1.1
Conor Jackson 2485 10.1% 11.7% 2.7% .290 98 2.6 -3.7 -45.8 3.3 0.7
Matt Wieters 2610 8.7% 18.4% 4.6% .283 96 -16.2 -27.2 77.9 14.4 3.0
Jeremy Hermida 2261 9.6% 22.9% 4.3% .314 96 -9.4 -18.6 -38.6 1.8 0.4
Chris Coghlan 1582 8.5% 16.8% 1.8% .317 96 2.3 -4.8 -33.5 1.1 0.4
Michael Aubrey 145 6.9% 10.3% 5.0% .254 96 -1.0 -1.8 -2.5 0.1 0.4
Casey Kotchman 3412 7.8% 9.9% 2.5% .271 93 -25.1 -54.9 -31.9 2.7 0.4
Michael Bourn 3941 8.5% 20.6% 1.0% .342 92 53.4 14.9 66.5 21.7 3.0
Steve Pearce 847 9.4% 20.1% 2.8% .283 87 0.9 -12.1 -13.5 0.2 0.1
Jeremy Reed 1376 7.3% 14.2% 1.1% .289 78 0.1 -36.8 10.4 2.0 0.8
Trevor Crowe 894 6.7% 17.9% 0.6% .292 69 3.6 -29.4 -5.5 -0.5 -0.3
Chris Getz 1546 7.1% 10.9% 0.2% .283 67 11.1 -48.8 9.3 1.2 0.4
Jordan Brown 109 4.6% 10.1% 0.0% .250 56 0.6 -5.0 -0.8 -0.2 -1.0
Nick Noonan 111 5.4% 21.6% 0.0% .284 35 0.6 -7.6 1.7 -0.3 -1.5
Average 2176 9.3% 17.0% 3.1% .301 99 1.1 23.6 -6.8 9.1 2.3
Here’s a second a table — in this case, comparing the median performances of the prospects from 2005 recognized for hitting (AVG 2005) and discipline (DIS 2005) to the median performances from this second group of prospects, the ones from between 2005 and -09 recognized for possessing the best of both tools within their respective organizations.
Tool PA* BB% K% HRC% wRC+ WAR* WAR550
AVG 2005 3092 8.5% 16.9% 3.3% 96 5.4 1.2
DIS 2005 2128 8.6% 18.5% 2.7% 93 3.3 0.8
BOTH 05-09 1981 9.2% 17.9% 2.8% 98 2.7 0.8
*Prospects from 2005 to -09 have had fewer years to accrue career totals, naturally. Their totals are understandably lower than those which belong to the prospects from 2005 alone.
Some observations and half-conclusions:
As the final table above illustrates, the prospects recognized both for their hitting and discipline from 2005 to -09 have so far produced a slightly higher — although, not substantially so — park-adjusted batting line than the prospects from 2005 considered in last week’s post who were recognized (in most cases) for just one or the other tool. Recognition for both tools, in other words, doesn’t appear to greatly amplify a hitter’s future major-league production. In either case, however, this appears to be a population of competent future hitters, on the whole.
To that last point: of the 29 prospects considered in this particular study, over half (15) have produced a park-adjusted batting line within 10% (on either side) of major-league average. Rephrased: a prospect recognized for demonstrating both the best hit tool and best plate discipline in his organization has, more often than not, become something very much like a major-league hitter.
The two players of the 29 matching the relevant criteria not to have recorded a major-league plate appearance are former San Francisco outfield prospect Eddy Martinez-Esteve (2006) and Houston middle-infield prospect Jonny Ash (200. Martinez-Esteve played affiliated ball through 2011 and has spent the last two seasons in the independent Atlantic League. Ash, somewhat curiously, was out of affiliated ball only a season after being named the Astros’ best and most disciplined hitter. One possible explanation for that: as a member of the club ranked 29th in terms of organizational talent, Ash’s “best tools” were probably less impressive than those belonging to more talented organizations overall.
As noted above, the players featured on the table here are sorted by wRC+, on account of how the tools being considered relate exclusively to hitting. “What,” the author wondered, “what if one were to reduce the list further — in this case to include only those players who were recognized for possessing their respective organizations best hit tool, best plate discipline, and then also best defensive skills, as well, at either catcher, the infield, or the outfield, such as the case may be?” In fact, using that more refined criteria one finds a small collection of excellent players: Michael Bourn, Andrew McCutchen, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Wieters. That group has averaged 3.7 WAR per every 550 plate appearances over their respective (and all still very active) major-league careers.
Of note regarding that last point: in fact, three players are designated in the 2014 Prospect Handbook as possessing their organization’s best hit tool, best discipline, and best defensive skills at the relevant position. That brief list: shortstop Francisco Lindor (Cleveland), shortstop J.P. Crawford (Philadelphia), and shortstop Jace Peterson (San Diego).
The precise method and relevant data for that small exercise are available here. The results are relatively easy to summarize, however: prospects noted within their respective organizations for their ability to hit for average and control the strike zone fared well, on the whole; prospects noted for power, footspeed, and athleticism fared markedly less well.
The table below illustrates that point further. It provides the median-level career production for each group of 30 prospects (one for each organization in 2005) corresponding to the relevant tool.
Tool PA BB% K% HRC% wRC+ WAR
ATH 401 5.5% 27.7% 1.0% 72 0.0
AVG 3092 8.5% 16.9% 3.3% 96 5.4
DIS 2128 8.6% 18.5% 2.7% 93 3.3
POW 414 7.9% 24.4% 3.7% 82 -0.1
RUN 54 3.9% 25.0% 0.0% 30 -0.5
The reader will note that, while the best-hitting and most-disciplined prospects have recorded nearly average park-adjusted hitting lines and positive WAR figures, this isn’t the case for players from the other three groups. As also noted in that post from last week, prospects from the first two groups have both graduated to the majors at a higher rate and also recorded more career marks of 5.0 WAR or higher up to the present.
Merely one season’s worth of prospects isn’t enough to render such a study exhaustive, of course. A more enterprising author than myself would certainly endeavor to collect a larger sample of data before moving on to further considerations. The present, less enterprising author, however — largely owing to his Considerable Sloth — has no interest at the moment in endeavoring to do such a thing.
A question which did present some interest, however, in the wake of that post last week concerns the future performance of prospects who were recognized as possessing both the best hit tool and best plate discipline within their respective organization. If prospects who possess one or the other were reliably able to produce competent numbers (the reasoning went), then prospects recognized for possessing both tools would likely produce even better numbers.
With a view towards addressing that question, then, what I proceeded to do was find the career numbers of all such players as had been named both their organization’s best and also most disciplined hitter by the editors of Baseball America between 2005 and -09.
Before we consider that data, I’ll note once again that there are a number of caveats that ought to be made regarding this exercise. For one: BA’s Best Tool lists represent a distillation of opinions from scouts and other industry contacts. Educated opinions, of course, but opinions nonetheless. Accordingly, there’s a lack of absolute precision. For two: talent isn’t now, and wasn’t 10 years ago, distributed evenly among all 30 organizations. The best-hitting prospect in one organization might be the fifth-best in another. The value of the Best Tool designations, for our purposes here, is that they function as a proxy for more sophisticated data that isn’t available publicly.
A table featuring the best-hitting and most disciplined prospects from 2005 to -09 is presented below. Of the 29 prospects who met the aforementioned criteria, 27 (93%) of them have recorded at least one major-league plate appearances. Of those, 12 (41%) have recorded at least 5.0 WAR over the course of their respective career — comparable rates to the hitting and discipline groups from 2005 on their own. HRC% denotes home runs on contact (that is, home runs per ball batted into fair play). WAR550 denotes WAR for every 550 plate appearances of a player’s career. Because we’re concerned with tools related exclusively to hitting, players are sorted by career wRC+ to date (as opposed to WAR, which includes defensive considerations, obviously).
Name PA BB% K% HRC% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR WAR550
Joey Votto 3790 14.9% 18.5% 6.2% .359 156 -11.4 240.1 -44.1 33.0 4.8
Andrew McCutchen 3171 11.4% 16.7% 4.5% .332 139 17.9 161.2 -2.5 27.2 4.7
Billy Butler 4208 9.2% 14.3% 3.7% .327 120 -37.0 62.2 -108.8 9.8 1.3
Jason Heyward 2170 11.4% 20.6% 4.9% .303 119 10.6 60.1 28.1 16.5 4.2
Dustin Pedroia 4548 9.3% 8.9% 2.7% .314 119 3.8 105.7 75.6 34.4 4.2
Curtis Granderson 5044 10.2% 23.1% 6.4% .305 118 27.6 136.4 22.3 33.2 3.6
Alex Gordon 3753 9.4% 20.8% 3.9% .321 110 14.2 55.6 12.7 20.1 2.9
Yonder Alonso 1121 9.3% 16.0% 2.4% .319 108 -6.2 4.2 -16.5 2.4 1.2
Chris Snelling 273 12.5% 21.6% 3.9% .300 107 -2.9 -0.5 -6.9 0.2 0.4
Jason Kubel 3707 9.1% 20.9% 5.4% .302 107 -14.5 17.6 -113.7 2.7 0.4
Gaby Sanchez 1981 10.2% 15.6% 3.7% .283 106 0.2 13.6 -23.9 5.5 1.5
Daric Barton 2021 14.1% 16.5% 2.1% .293 105 2.5 14.4 -8.2 7.6 2.1
Matt Murton 1058 8.8% 14.1% 3.6% .312 101 1.7 3.4 16.3 5.4 2.8
Scott Sizemore 598 11.4% 25.8% 3.7% .311 98 0.5 -1.0 -7.1 1.2 1.1
Conor Jackson 2485 10.1% 11.7% 2.7% .290 98 2.6 -3.7 -45.8 3.3 0.7
Matt Wieters 2610 8.7% 18.4% 4.6% .283 96 -16.2 -27.2 77.9 14.4 3.0
Jeremy Hermida 2261 9.6% 22.9% 4.3% .314 96 -9.4 -18.6 -38.6 1.8 0.4
Chris Coghlan 1582 8.5% 16.8% 1.8% .317 96 2.3 -4.8 -33.5 1.1 0.4
Michael Aubrey 145 6.9% 10.3% 5.0% .254 96 -1.0 -1.8 -2.5 0.1 0.4
Casey Kotchman 3412 7.8% 9.9% 2.5% .271 93 -25.1 -54.9 -31.9 2.7 0.4
Michael Bourn 3941 8.5% 20.6% 1.0% .342 92 53.4 14.9 66.5 21.7 3.0
Steve Pearce 847 9.4% 20.1% 2.8% .283 87 0.9 -12.1 -13.5 0.2 0.1
Jeremy Reed 1376 7.3% 14.2% 1.1% .289 78 0.1 -36.8 10.4 2.0 0.8
Trevor Crowe 894 6.7% 17.9% 0.6% .292 69 3.6 -29.4 -5.5 -0.5 -0.3
Chris Getz 1546 7.1% 10.9% 0.2% .283 67 11.1 -48.8 9.3 1.2 0.4
Jordan Brown 109 4.6% 10.1% 0.0% .250 56 0.6 -5.0 -0.8 -0.2 -1.0
Nick Noonan 111 5.4% 21.6% 0.0% .284 35 0.6 -7.6 1.7 -0.3 -1.5
Average 2176 9.3% 17.0% 3.1% .301 99 1.1 23.6 -6.8 9.1 2.3
Here’s a second a table — in this case, comparing the median performances of the prospects from 2005 recognized for hitting (AVG 2005) and discipline (DIS 2005) to the median performances from this second group of prospects, the ones from between 2005 and -09 recognized for possessing the best of both tools within their respective organizations.
Tool PA* BB% K% HRC% wRC+ WAR* WAR550
AVG 2005 3092 8.5% 16.9% 3.3% 96 5.4 1.2
DIS 2005 2128 8.6% 18.5% 2.7% 93 3.3 0.8
BOTH 05-09 1981 9.2% 17.9% 2.8% 98 2.7 0.8
*Prospects from 2005 to -09 have had fewer years to accrue career totals, naturally. Their totals are understandably lower than those which belong to the prospects from 2005 alone.
Some observations and half-conclusions:
As the final table above illustrates, the prospects recognized both for their hitting and discipline from 2005 to -09 have so far produced a slightly higher — although, not substantially so — park-adjusted batting line than the prospects from 2005 considered in last week’s post who were recognized (in most cases) for just one or the other tool. Recognition for both tools, in other words, doesn’t appear to greatly amplify a hitter’s future major-league production. In either case, however, this appears to be a population of competent future hitters, on the whole.
To that last point: of the 29 prospects considered in this particular study, over half (15) have produced a park-adjusted batting line within 10% (on either side) of major-league average. Rephrased: a prospect recognized for demonstrating both the best hit tool and best plate discipline in his organization has, more often than not, become something very much like a major-league hitter.
The two players of the 29 matching the relevant criteria not to have recorded a major-league plate appearance are former San Francisco outfield prospect Eddy Martinez-Esteve (2006) and Houston middle-infield prospect Jonny Ash (200
. Martinez-Esteve played affiliated ball through 2011 and has spent the last two seasons in the independent Atlantic League. Ash, somewhat curiously, was out of affiliated ball only a season after being named the Astros’ best and most disciplined hitter. One possible explanation for that: as a member of the club ranked 29th in terms of organizational talent, Ash’s “best tools” were probably less impressive than those belonging to more talented organizations overall.As noted above, the players featured on the table here are sorted by wRC+, on account of how the tools being considered relate exclusively to hitting. “What,” the author wondered, “what if one were to reduce the list further — in this case to include only those players who were recognized for possessing their respective organizations best hit tool, best plate discipline, and then also best defensive skills, as well, at either catcher, the infield, or the outfield, such as the case may be?” In fact, using that more refined criteria one finds a small collection of excellent players: Michael Bourn, Andrew McCutchen, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Wieters. That group has averaged 3.7 WAR per every 550 plate appearances over their respective (and all still very active) major-league careers.
Of note regarding that last point: in fact, three players are designated in the 2014 Prospect Handbook as possessing their organization’s best hit tool, best discipline, and best defensive skills at the relevant position. That brief list: shortstop Francisco Lindor (Cleveland), shortstop J.P. Crawford (Philadelphia), and shortstop Jace Peterson (San Diego).
The Most Interesting AL Contender: Boston Red Sox.
Over the next couple of weeks, let’s take a look at some of the most interesting teams in baseball – one contender and one rebuilder from each league. What makes a team “interesting”? Taking advantage of the extreme nature of its ballpark, for a couple of clubs. Bucking some of the game’s most prevalent current trends and having success, for another. Or almost completely breaking from every pattern displayed in a club’s fairly successful recent past. To kick it off, let’s look at our AL contender, the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, who a little more than a year and a half ago, were considered by most to be the single most underachieving team in the game.
THE TRADE
As August 25, 2012, ended, the Boston Red Sox were 60-67, in 4th place in the AL East, 13.5 games out of first. This was the ill-fated Bobby Valentine year, that followed the fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse season. The Sox had missed the playoffs in spectacular fashion on the last day of that season in 2011, after a calendar year full of transactions that enthralled just about every pundit and prognosticator – you know, like the Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team” of a couple years back. They had landed Adrian Gonzalez in late 2010, and extended him for seven years and $154M the next season. They had also signed Carl Crawford for seven years and $142M during the 2010-11 offseason. As the 2012 season slipped away, the heady days of 2004 and 2007 seemed long gone, as the Gonzalez-Crawford centered club was headed nowhere, and had seemingly very limited financial flexibility.
Enter the Los Angeles Dodgers, freshly buoyed by an aggressive new ownership group apparently unencumbered by any semblance of financial restraint. The Sox sent Gonzalez, Crawford and Josh Beckett (along with Nick Punto) to L.A., along with the over one quarter billion dollars they were owed. If the deal was simply those three players in exchange for the associated salary relief, it would have favored the Red Sox. However, the Sox were also able to acquire two significant pitching prospects, RHPs Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, in the five-player package they received in return.
The bottom fell out of the remainder of the Sox’ 2012 season, as they lost 26 of their last 35 games after the trade to finish 69-93, buried in last place. The club now had the financial flexibility, however, to enter the 2012-13 offseason and build around their still considerable core moving forward.
BUILDING TO THE BALLPARK
The Red Sox avoided the temptation to invest in a single big-name star, instead spreading the wealth to an eclectic group of veterans, among them 1B Mike Napoli, SS Stephen Drew, LF Jonny Gomes, RF Shane Victorino and RHP Koji Uehara. They also added 1B Mike Carp in a waiver deal after he was removed from the Mariners’ 40-man roster. Obviously, in retrospect these appear to be spectacular moves, as most of these guys were bearded and delirious at the end of last season. Why this group, however? Let’s take a step back and examine some of the nuances of the Red Sox’ home, Fenway Park. Its’ unique configuration yields some unusual park factors, especially on fly balls.
FLYBALL PARK FACTORS
ADJ FOR BIP SPD/ANGLE
2013 ACT AVG ACT SLG PRJ AVG PRJ SLG PARK FCT
COL 0.335 0.829 0.256 0.617 176.4
BOS 0.342 0.858 0.273 0.707 151.1
SD 0.282 0.744 0.254 0.614 136.7
MIL 0.305 0.806 0.275 0.698 129.3
BAL 0.314 0.870 0.292 0.759 124.9
NYY 0.270 0.736 0.264 0.658 116.5
MIN 0.285 0.725 0.264 0.672 116.3
NYM 0.272 0.686 0.260 0.631 114.7
CWS 0.269 0.751 0.270 0.672 114.3
CIN 0.280 0.790 0.279 0.735 109.6
CUB 0.284 0.770 0.279 0.729 108.2
TEX 0.271 0.713 0.270 0.694 103.7
LAD 0.259 0.657 0.260 0.642 102.7
DET 0.286 0.731 0.281 0.726 102.3
HOU 0.310 0.877 0.313 0.873 99.8
TOR 0.294 0.844 0.304 0.829 99.8
TB 0.284 0.753 0.291 0.768 95.9
OAK 0.251 0.666 0.264 0.685 92.9
CLE 0.294 0.792 0.303 0.828 92.4
PHL 0.319 0.859 0.322 0.913 91.9
WAS 0.273 0.698 0.287 0.745 88.8
LAA 0.292 0.771 0.307 0.854 84.9
AZ 0.284 0.745 0.302 0.833 83.2
ATL 0.303 0.768 0.326 0.902 77.7
STL 0.249 0.620 0.278 0.719 76.5
MIA 0.243 0.569 0.269 0.669 76.1
PIT 0.261 0.641 0.286 0.757 76.1
SF 0.261 0.626 0.283 0.744 76.0
SEA 0.283 0.757 0.323 0.913 71.8
KC 0.254 0.615 0.291 0.755 70.0
MLB 0.284 0.743 0.284 0.743 100.0
The above table list my fly ball park factors for all 30 major league ballparks — based on my own calculations and information available from my time in a front office — from most to least hitter-friendly. The first two columns indicate the actual AVG and SLG generated on fly balls, while the next two indicate what the AVG and SLG “should have been” if balls hit at the actual mix of speeds and angles would have resulted into singles, doubles, triples and homers at major league average rates. The fifth column, the park factor, reflects the run value inflation or deflation caused by the difference between the two. As you see, Fenway inflates run-scoring on fly balls at a rate (151.1) second only to Coors Field.
In arriving at that 151.1 figure, one might inquire as to how Fenway inflates fly ball singles, doubles, triples and homers specifically. Well……1B = 101, 2B = 181, 3B = 128, HR = 104. Since the raw number of actual and projected triples is relatively low, the run value inflation is by far most attributable to the inflation of fly ball doubles.
Let’s also look at this another way, and break down Fenway’s fly ball park factor by outfield sector:
LF = 205.4 LCF = 179.1 CF = 200.2 RCF = 89.5 RF = 81.7 OVERALL = 151.1
We are now beginning to localize and quantify the Fenway fly ball factor – it is largely attributable to fly balls that would be outs almost anywhere else, that instead become doubles off of the high LF, LCF and CF fences. Now, to find some position players who hit more such fly balls than other players do, as well as some pitchers who can minimize such damage. (For the record, Fenway’s line drive and ground ball park factors for 2013 were 95.6 and 98.8, respectively.)
How did the Sox’ position players take advantage of their confines in 2013? Here are some Sox regular and semi-regular personnel from last season and their respective fly ball frequencies, expressed in percentile rank form (99 = maximum, 50 = average, 1 = minimum): Jarrod Saltalamacchia 97, Daniel Nava 96, Will Middlebrooks 79, Carp 78, Gomes 75, Napoli 73, Drew 71, David Ortiz 53. That’s a critical mass of some extreme fly ball hitting right there.
Even the two key 2013 Sox regulars with low fly ball frequencies (Jacoby Ellsbury 27, Dustin Pedroia 25) got some points added to their batting average from the Fenway fly ball factor. Ellsbury actually hit .364 on fly balls compared to a projected .295 based on his hard/soft fly ball rate, while Pedroia batted .248 compared to a projected .210 – for both, the difference was almost entirely attributable to wall-balls that would have been outs almost anywhere else. Let’s take an even closer look at batted-ball production by type for a couple of the 2013 Sox’ complementary players.
PROD
Carp AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD
FLY 0.429 1.102 223 107
LD 0.735 1.059 136 105
GB 0.271 0.322 141 110
ALL BIP 0.416 0.732 186 120
ALL PA 0.287 0.353 0.505 139 96
— — — — — —
Gomes AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD
FLY 0.324 0.972 154 88
LD 0.667 0.844 100 93
GB 0.386 0.404 258 168
ALL BIP 0.339 0.586 122 88
ALL PA 0.244 0.334 0.421 111 86
The above table shows batted-ball production by type for Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes. The “REL PRD” column shows the run value of their actual production relative to league average for each batted-ball type, scaled to 100. The “ADJ PRD” column adjusts for ballpark, luck, etc., to give a better insight to the player’s true talent level. The next to last row indicates actual production on all balls in play, and the K’s and BB’s are added back to the last row, which measures overall performance. SH and SF are included as outs, and HBP are not included in OBP for purposes of this exercise.
As you can see, Carp and Gomes’ 2013 performances were primarily driven by inflated production on fly balls. Carp’s .429 AVG and 1.102 SLG on fly balls “should have been” only .289-.774, and Gomes’ actual .324-.972 “should have been” only .274-.683. Instead of productive part-timers, both Carp and Gomes should have been near replacement-level performers, with ADJ PRD figures of 96 and 86, respectively, with little to no defensive value, if the balls they had hit would have been converted into outs at MLB average rates for their speed and angle off of the bat. With Gomes specifically, let’s take a step back and look at the whole picture – a massive K rate (84 percentile rank), an even more massive popup rate (99 percentile rank, highest in baseball), and an extreme pull profile, even in the air. In most parks, this is a recipe for the end of a career – in Fenway, it’s the profile of a solid complementary piece.
Napoli and Drew’s offensive contributions were also upsized by Fenway – note Napoli’s nine doubles as a Ranger in 2012 compared to his total of 38 in 2013. The Red Sox also recognized the need for a second center fielder to patrol their spacious RF area when they signed Victorino, and identified the relief stud within when they signed Uehara and his outlandish combination of K, BB and popup rates. Their 2013 roster construction work was done, and they accomplished their goals while retaining significant financial flexibility, thanks both to the short-term nature of their newer financial commitments, as well as the Pedroia Factor.
THE PEDROIA FACTOR
Dustin Pedroia has eight years and $109M left on his contract. Robinson Cano has 10 years and $240M left on his. Cano is the best second baseman in baseball – but he’s not $131M in guaranteed money better, or even close to that. Pedroia too is helped by Fenway, though not nearly as much as most of his teammates. He outperforms his generally solid but unspectacular batted ball profile annually by minimizing his K’s, maximizing his BB’s, and outperforming his hard/soft groundball rates, often on sheer will and hustle. As much value as Pedroia brings on the field, however, it can be argued that he delivers even more in less tangible ways. When one of your core stars consciously takes a long-term discount in the interest of the big picture – of long-term championship contention – players throughout the game notice, and are often eager to get in on the fun. Many of the Sox Class of 2013 free agent signees left money on the table to come to Boston, and they got one hell of a baseball and life experience as a result. As bad as the clubhouse dynamic might have been at the 2012 low point, it was that good and better in 2013.
Ryan Dempster, one of the Sox’ few personnel misfires of the 2012-13 offseason, had $13.25M coming to him in 2014 if he just showed up and went through the motions, even if he wound up spending the entire season on the DL. Instead, he stepped back from the game for a combination of physical and family reasons, forfeited his salary, and even mentioned the best interests of the club in his statement. Might he have done the same if he pitched for another club? Perhaps – but while his actions speak most loudly about the character of Dempster, they also speak to the high regard in which he held the organization. What did the Red Sox do with the savings resulting from this decision?
SIMULTANEOUS MAJOR AND MINOR LEAGUE STRENGTH
You always hear about clubs being right up against their budget number, especially late in the offseason. Well, if most clubs were to suddenly receive $13M in salary relief, they would be inclined to race out and address immediate needs, including those created by the player whose self-removal created the relief. Not this version of the Red Sox. Though their projected 2014 rotation is solid (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Felix Doubront), the Sox know as well as anyone that your original five generally isn’t enough to get you through the season. They even more logically could have used the funds to bring back Stephen Drew, one of the perfect Fenway fly ball fits of 2013.
They chose not to, however, instead signing Chris Capuano out of the bargain bin for rotation insurance, and entrusting the shortstop position to rookie phenom Xander Bogaerts. Beyond this, they resisted the temptation to make a big-ticket move to replace the departed Jacoby Ellsbury, instead entrusting the center field position to another talented youngster, Jackie Bradley, Jr., with reclamation project Grady Sizemore brought in as insurance on a make-good deal that offers little risk and potentially sizeable reward. Behind Capuano in the rotation pecking order stand the two prospects obtained in “the trade”, Webster and De La Rosa, along with high-end prospects Henry Owens and Matt Barnes. Catching depth, a sore spot in almost all organizations, is plentiful, with Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart not too far away, and the recently untouchable Ryan Lavarnway supposedly available for trade. Yes, the Red Sox, along with the Cardinals, Rangers and possibly the Pirates, are the only clubs in the game who currently boast well above average major and minor league talent, with no signs of an imminent downturn on either front. Most contenders pushed all of their chips toward the center over the winter, but the Sox held many in reserve, both in the form of dollars and prospects, retaining maximum flexibility to enhance their club on the fly.
Everything went right for the Boston Red Sox last season, and there are no guarantees for a repeat performance in 2014. Luck is the residue of design, however, and this organization currently is very well designed. The major league club is talented throughout, with young talent sprinkled around a core of proven but ever-motivated veterans. The club fits their ballpark impeccably, and most of its members appear to be proud to wear the uniform. When the inevitable roadblocks present themselves after the season begins, their combination of minor league strength and financial power and flexibility should still give them the ability to be squarely in the conversation for the AL pennant. They aren’t going away anytime soon.
THE TRADE
As August 25, 2012, ended, the Boston Red Sox were 60-67, in 4th place in the AL East, 13.5 games out of first. This was the ill-fated Bobby Valentine year, that followed the fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse season. The Sox had missed the playoffs in spectacular fashion on the last day of that season in 2011, after a calendar year full of transactions that enthralled just about every pundit and prognosticator – you know, like the Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team” of a couple years back. They had landed Adrian Gonzalez in late 2010, and extended him for seven years and $154M the next season. They had also signed Carl Crawford for seven years and $142M during the 2010-11 offseason. As the 2012 season slipped away, the heady days of 2004 and 2007 seemed long gone, as the Gonzalez-Crawford centered club was headed nowhere, and had seemingly very limited financial flexibility.
Enter the Los Angeles Dodgers, freshly buoyed by an aggressive new ownership group apparently unencumbered by any semblance of financial restraint. The Sox sent Gonzalez, Crawford and Josh Beckett (along with Nick Punto) to L.A., along with the over one quarter billion dollars they were owed. If the deal was simply those three players in exchange for the associated salary relief, it would have favored the Red Sox. However, the Sox were also able to acquire two significant pitching prospects, RHPs Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, in the five-player package they received in return.
The bottom fell out of the remainder of the Sox’ 2012 season, as they lost 26 of their last 35 games after the trade to finish 69-93, buried in last place. The club now had the financial flexibility, however, to enter the 2012-13 offseason and build around their still considerable core moving forward.
BUILDING TO THE BALLPARK
The Red Sox avoided the temptation to invest in a single big-name star, instead spreading the wealth to an eclectic group of veterans, among them 1B Mike Napoli, SS Stephen Drew, LF Jonny Gomes, RF Shane Victorino and RHP Koji Uehara. They also added 1B Mike Carp in a waiver deal after he was removed from the Mariners’ 40-man roster. Obviously, in retrospect these appear to be spectacular moves, as most of these guys were bearded and delirious at the end of last season. Why this group, however? Let’s take a step back and examine some of the nuances of the Red Sox’ home, Fenway Park. Its’ unique configuration yields some unusual park factors, especially on fly balls.
FLYBALL PARK FACTORS
ADJ FOR BIP SPD/ANGLE
2013 ACT AVG ACT SLG PRJ AVG PRJ SLG PARK FCT
COL 0.335 0.829 0.256 0.617 176.4
BOS 0.342 0.858 0.273 0.707 151.1
SD 0.282 0.744 0.254 0.614 136.7
MIL 0.305 0.806 0.275 0.698 129.3
BAL 0.314 0.870 0.292 0.759 124.9
NYY 0.270 0.736 0.264 0.658 116.5
MIN 0.285 0.725 0.264 0.672 116.3
NYM 0.272 0.686 0.260 0.631 114.7
CWS 0.269 0.751 0.270 0.672 114.3
CIN 0.280 0.790 0.279 0.735 109.6
CUB 0.284 0.770 0.279 0.729 108.2
TEX 0.271 0.713 0.270 0.694 103.7
LAD 0.259 0.657 0.260 0.642 102.7
DET 0.286 0.731 0.281 0.726 102.3
HOU 0.310 0.877 0.313 0.873 99.8
TOR 0.294 0.844 0.304 0.829 99.8
TB 0.284 0.753 0.291 0.768 95.9
OAK 0.251 0.666 0.264 0.685 92.9
CLE 0.294 0.792 0.303 0.828 92.4
PHL 0.319 0.859 0.322 0.913 91.9
WAS 0.273 0.698 0.287 0.745 88.8
LAA 0.292 0.771 0.307 0.854 84.9
AZ 0.284 0.745 0.302 0.833 83.2
ATL 0.303 0.768 0.326 0.902 77.7
STL 0.249 0.620 0.278 0.719 76.5
MIA 0.243 0.569 0.269 0.669 76.1
PIT 0.261 0.641 0.286 0.757 76.1
SF 0.261 0.626 0.283 0.744 76.0
SEA 0.283 0.757 0.323 0.913 71.8
KC 0.254 0.615 0.291 0.755 70.0
MLB 0.284 0.743 0.284 0.743 100.0
The above table list my fly ball park factors for all 30 major league ballparks — based on my own calculations and information available from my time in a front office — from most to least hitter-friendly. The first two columns indicate the actual AVG and SLG generated on fly balls, while the next two indicate what the AVG and SLG “should have been” if balls hit at the actual mix of speeds and angles would have resulted into singles, doubles, triples and homers at major league average rates. The fifth column, the park factor, reflects the run value inflation or deflation caused by the difference between the two. As you see, Fenway inflates run-scoring on fly balls at a rate (151.1) second only to Coors Field.
In arriving at that 151.1 figure, one might inquire as to how Fenway inflates fly ball singles, doubles, triples and homers specifically. Well……1B = 101, 2B = 181, 3B = 128, HR = 104. Since the raw number of actual and projected triples is relatively low, the run value inflation is by far most attributable to the inflation of fly ball doubles.
Let’s also look at this another way, and break down Fenway’s fly ball park factor by outfield sector:
LF = 205.4 LCF = 179.1 CF = 200.2 RCF = 89.5 RF = 81.7 OVERALL = 151.1
We are now beginning to localize and quantify the Fenway fly ball factor – it is largely attributable to fly balls that would be outs almost anywhere else, that instead become doubles off of the high LF, LCF and CF fences. Now, to find some position players who hit more such fly balls than other players do, as well as some pitchers who can minimize such damage. (For the record, Fenway’s line drive and ground ball park factors for 2013 were 95.6 and 98.8, respectively.)
How did the Sox’ position players take advantage of their confines in 2013? Here are some Sox regular and semi-regular personnel from last season and their respective fly ball frequencies, expressed in percentile rank form (99 = maximum, 50 = average, 1 = minimum): Jarrod Saltalamacchia 97, Daniel Nava 96, Will Middlebrooks 79, Carp 78, Gomes 75, Napoli 73, Drew 71, David Ortiz 53. That’s a critical mass of some extreme fly ball hitting right there.
Even the two key 2013 Sox regulars with low fly ball frequencies (Jacoby Ellsbury 27, Dustin Pedroia 25) got some points added to their batting average from the Fenway fly ball factor. Ellsbury actually hit .364 on fly balls compared to a projected .295 based on his hard/soft fly ball rate, while Pedroia batted .248 compared to a projected .210 – for both, the difference was almost entirely attributable to wall-balls that would have been outs almost anywhere else. Let’s take an even closer look at batted-ball production by type for a couple of the 2013 Sox’ complementary players.
PROD
Carp AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD
FLY 0.429 1.102 223 107
LD 0.735 1.059 136 105
GB 0.271 0.322 141 110
ALL BIP 0.416 0.732 186 120
ALL PA 0.287 0.353 0.505 139 96
— — — — — —
Gomes AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD
FLY 0.324 0.972 154 88
LD 0.667 0.844 100 93
GB 0.386 0.404 258 168
ALL BIP 0.339 0.586 122 88
ALL PA 0.244 0.334 0.421 111 86
The above table shows batted-ball production by type for Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes. The “REL PRD” column shows the run value of their actual production relative to league average for each batted-ball type, scaled to 100. The “ADJ PRD” column adjusts for ballpark, luck, etc., to give a better insight to the player’s true talent level. The next to last row indicates actual production on all balls in play, and the K’s and BB’s are added back to the last row, which measures overall performance. SH and SF are included as outs, and HBP are not included in OBP for purposes of this exercise.
As you can see, Carp and Gomes’ 2013 performances were primarily driven by inflated production on fly balls. Carp’s .429 AVG and 1.102 SLG on fly balls “should have been” only .289-.774, and Gomes’ actual .324-.972 “should have been” only .274-.683. Instead of productive part-timers, both Carp and Gomes should have been near replacement-level performers, with ADJ PRD figures of 96 and 86, respectively, with little to no defensive value, if the balls they had hit would have been converted into outs at MLB average rates for their speed and angle off of the bat. With Gomes specifically, let’s take a step back and look at the whole picture – a massive K rate (84 percentile rank), an even more massive popup rate (99 percentile rank, highest in baseball), and an extreme pull profile, even in the air. In most parks, this is a recipe for the end of a career – in Fenway, it’s the profile of a solid complementary piece.
Napoli and Drew’s offensive contributions were also upsized by Fenway – note Napoli’s nine doubles as a Ranger in 2012 compared to his total of 38 in 2013. The Red Sox also recognized the need for a second center fielder to patrol their spacious RF area when they signed Victorino, and identified the relief stud within when they signed Uehara and his outlandish combination of K, BB and popup rates. Their 2013 roster construction work was done, and they accomplished their goals while retaining significant financial flexibility, thanks both to the short-term nature of their newer financial commitments, as well as the Pedroia Factor.
THE PEDROIA FACTOR
Dustin Pedroia has eight years and $109M left on his contract. Robinson Cano has 10 years and $240M left on his. Cano is the best second baseman in baseball – but he’s not $131M in guaranteed money better, or even close to that. Pedroia too is helped by Fenway, though not nearly as much as most of his teammates. He outperforms his generally solid but unspectacular batted ball profile annually by minimizing his K’s, maximizing his BB’s, and outperforming his hard/soft groundball rates, often on sheer will and hustle. As much value as Pedroia brings on the field, however, it can be argued that he delivers even more in less tangible ways. When one of your core stars consciously takes a long-term discount in the interest of the big picture – of long-term championship contention – players throughout the game notice, and are often eager to get in on the fun. Many of the Sox Class of 2013 free agent signees left money on the table to come to Boston, and they got one hell of a baseball and life experience as a result. As bad as the clubhouse dynamic might have been at the 2012 low point, it was that good and better in 2013.
Ryan Dempster, one of the Sox’ few personnel misfires of the 2012-13 offseason, had $13.25M coming to him in 2014 if he just showed up and went through the motions, even if he wound up spending the entire season on the DL. Instead, he stepped back from the game for a combination of physical and family reasons, forfeited his salary, and even mentioned the best interests of the club in his statement. Might he have done the same if he pitched for another club? Perhaps – but while his actions speak most loudly about the character of Dempster, they also speak to the high regard in which he held the organization. What did the Red Sox do with the savings resulting from this decision?
SIMULTANEOUS MAJOR AND MINOR LEAGUE STRENGTH
You always hear about clubs being right up against their budget number, especially late in the offseason. Well, if most clubs were to suddenly receive $13M in salary relief, they would be inclined to race out and address immediate needs, including those created by the player whose self-removal created the relief. Not this version of the Red Sox. Though their projected 2014 rotation is solid (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Felix Doubront), the Sox know as well as anyone that your original five generally isn’t enough to get you through the season. They even more logically could have used the funds to bring back Stephen Drew, one of the perfect Fenway fly ball fits of 2013.
They chose not to, however, instead signing Chris Capuano out of the bargain bin for rotation insurance, and entrusting the shortstop position to rookie phenom Xander Bogaerts. Beyond this, they resisted the temptation to make a big-ticket move to replace the departed Jacoby Ellsbury, instead entrusting the center field position to another talented youngster, Jackie Bradley, Jr., with reclamation project Grady Sizemore brought in as insurance on a make-good deal that offers little risk and potentially sizeable reward. Behind Capuano in the rotation pecking order stand the two prospects obtained in “the trade”, Webster and De La Rosa, along with high-end prospects Henry Owens and Matt Barnes. Catching depth, a sore spot in almost all organizations, is plentiful, with Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart not too far away, and the recently untouchable Ryan Lavarnway supposedly available for trade. Yes, the Red Sox, along with the Cardinals, Rangers and possibly the Pirates, are the only clubs in the game who currently boast well above average major and minor league talent, with no signs of an imminent downturn on either front. Most contenders pushed all of their chips toward the center over the winter, but the Sox held many in reserve, both in the form of dollars and prospects, retaining maximum flexibility to enhance their club on the fly.
Everything went right for the Boston Red Sox last season, and there are no guarantees for a repeat performance in 2014. Luck is the residue of design, however, and this organization currently is very well designed. The major league club is talented throughout, with young talent sprinkled around a core of proven but ever-motivated veterans. The club fits their ballpark impeccably, and most of its members appear to be proud to wear the uniform. When the inevitable roadblocks present themselves after the season begins, their combination of minor league strength and financial power and flexibility should still give them the ability to be squarely in the conversation for the AL pennant. They aren’t going away anytime soon.
- May 2, 2012
- 37,127
- 14,107
Shut that Chapman liner hit vid real quick 
. Prayers are with him to be back in a few weeks.
. Prayers are with him to be back in a few weeks.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,596
- 2,149
I believe he is out 6-8 weeks.
- Status
