2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[651akathepaul]

Sad, man. I can't imagine never watching the A's win the World Series.

I was born in 1991:

-The A's have never made a world series in my life
-The Raiders have made 1 super bowl, barely showed up
-The Warriors have made playoffs twice.


|I

'91 was a great year.


Speaking of the Twins...They look to be something serious in the coming years. My goodness.

 

[GreenNGold89]

I was born in '89. The thought of the A's not winning one in my life time makes me want to vomit. :x

 

[proshares]

The Orioles need A.J. Burnett.

Spoiler

There might not be a fan base that has suffered through a drearier offseason to date than that of the Baltimore Orioles, which has watched the New York Yankees import Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran while the Boston Red Sox re-signed Mike Napoli and the Tampa Bay Rays added Grant Balfour.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has made more news for the deals it hasn't been able to close -- voided signings for Balfour and Tyler Colvin after physical concerns -- than the ones it has actually made. So far, all the Orioles have done is complete minor trades for infielder Jemile Weeks (more of a salary dump of useful reliever Jim Johnson than anything else) and outfielder David Lough along with signing middle reliever Ryan Webb to a two-year deal.

A quiet winter is fine when a team is in the midst of a rebuild, but the Orioles have raised expectations by winning 178 games over the past two seasons, including making it to the playoffs in 2012 for the first time since 1997. Despite that, they have rarely even been mentioned in rumors this winter and by most indications haven't made a serious push for any of the big-name free agents. Will Webb or a potential Chris Capuano or Bronson Arroyo satisfy the Baltimore faithful? Not likely.

Fortunately for the Orioles, luck just might be on their side. Somewhat unexpectedly, the market has a new "best pitcher available," one who won't demand a long-term contract or cost a draft pick and who might limit himself to a geographic area, which means the Orioles need to battle only four or five teams for his services.

He's A.J. Burnett, and Baltimore absolutely has to sign him if it's going to make something out of this winter as the 2014 season looms.

A rotation that needs help

Chris Tillman is a fine young pitcher, one who would be worthy of a home in the middle of most big league rotations, so this really isn't meant to put him down. But he is exactly why the Orioles need another good arm because he's not in the middle of Baltimore's rotation; he's at the top.

Even with an All-Star Game appearance last season -- one American League manager Jim Leyland freely admitted was given to Tillman over the superior Hiroki Kuroda simply because Tillman had a better win-loss record -- Tillman is misplaced as the ace of a team hoping to contend. Among qualifying starters, his 3.71 ERA was 50th, behind Dillon Gee and Ricky Nolasco; his 4.42 FIP was 72nd, behind Edinson Volquez and Wily Peralta. Only A.J. Griffin and Dan Haren had higher home run rates, and that's a problem that keeps Tillman from being considered an elite pitcher.

Despite pitching at 37 years old in 2013, Burnett was superior in nearly every way:

Pitcher K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
Burnett 9.85 3.16 0.52 56.5 3.30 2.80 4.0
Tillman 7.81 2.97 1.44 38.6 3.71 4.42 2.0
This illustrates Baltimore's need for an upper-level starter, and while we've compared Burnett and Tillman atop the rotation, the true impact wouldn't be to displace Tillman. The effect would be that Burnett would take innings that would otherwise go to the overrated Bud Norris, the inexperienced (though talented) Kevin Gausman or the merely decent Miguel Gonzalez. Ideally, those are the kind of pitchers you have ready to step in to fill a gap, not the ones you're counting on from the start of the season.

Best of the bunch

If we repeat the comparison with this winter's trio of non-Tanaka free-agent starters, we can see that Burnett had a better season than Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, as well as Matt Garza, who just collected a guaranteed $50 million from Milwaukee.

Pitcher K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
Burnett 9.85 3.16 0.52 56.5 3.30 2.80 4.0
Garza 7.88 2.43 1.16 38.6 3.82 3.88 2.2
Jimenez 9.56 3.94 0.79 43.9 3.30 3.43 3.2
Santana 6.87 2.18 1.11 46.2 3.24 3.93 3.0
Yet while Garza just hit it big and Santana and Jimenez are likely to do the same, Burnett's age and apparent preference to go year-to-year at this point -- as well as the fact that he's likely to limit the teams he'll even talk to -- should keep his cost at a fraction of their price. Considering that Burnett had a solid 2012 while Jimenez and Santana were replacement-level or below, investing in him is something of a no-brainer.

While moving from the National League Central to the AL East is a concern for any pitcher, Baltimore represents a perfect fit for Burnett for another important reason.

Among all qualified big league starters, only Cleveland's Justin Masterson induced a higher ground ball rate than Burnett did, thanks to a sinker that Burnett started using as his primary pitch upon his arrival in Pittsburgh. That works with the Orioles stellar left-side defense, since third baseman Manny Machado not only led all big league third basemen in defensive runs saved but also put up the highest number at the position since the stat was first recorded in 2003. Next to him is J.J. Hardy, a good enough defender to keep Machado off his natural shortstop position and one who finished fourth in DRS at his position in 2013. (Second base is unsettled, though Ryan Flaherty would be a solid defender if he can hit enough to earn time.)

As a team, Baltimore finished fourth in DRS, and it's vital for a ground baller to pitch in front of plus gloves.

No place like home

For months, the expectation was that Burnett would either retire or return to Pittsburgh, but it now appears he's willing to pitch elsewhere. That doesn't really open up the bidding to any team because he has been consistent about not wanting to leave the area around his Monkton, Md., home, approximately 30 miles north of Baltimore. (Prior to 2012, Burnett reportedly refused to waive his no-trade clause when the Yankees attempted to move him to the Angels.)

The Phillies and Nationals could each use an additional starter, the Pirates will certainly attempt to bring him back, and both New York clubs would have interest in improving their rotations, so bringing Burnett to Baltimore won't come without a bit of a fight. But Baltimore could argue that it is closer to his home than anyone, that the Mets and Phillies are unlikely to contend and that his initial tour of the Bronx didn't go smoothly. Burnett could still decide he prefers the National League, in which case the Orioles would be out of luck. If not, they need to make sure he's wearing orange in 2014. He's a perfect fit, and he's the only impact option they have that won't cost a draft pick.

Braves must go low with Kimbrel.

Spoiler

The arbitration case that will be made for Craig Kimbrel next month will be unique, because no reliever has started a career with three-plus seasons like Kimbrel -- 381 strikeouts among the first 883 hitters he's faced, with a 1.39 ERA and 139 saves. The Braves love Kimbrel, having drafted and developed him and promoted him into the closer's role just a couple of months into his career.

But the gap between what the Braves have offered Kimbrel -- $6.55 million -- and what Kimbrel wants in arbitration -- $9 million -- is enormous, and there’s more at stake for Atlanta in this hearing than the $2.45 million that separates the sides.

If the Braves win the case, they will give themselves a legitimate chance to keep Kimbrel for 2015. If they lose, however, then Kimbrel may be priced off the Atlanta roster sooner than anybody expects. Because arbitration cases are like building blocks, with one decision stacked upon the next.

If Kimbrel wins his case and makes $9 million in 2014, then he will be well-positioned to ask for something in the range of $14 million-$15 million next year -- or, in other words, he could become the highest-paid reliever in baseball in his second year of arbitration eligibility.

On the other hand, if the Braves win, then Kimbrel’s salary for 2015 could be closer to $10 million or $11 million, and Atlanta has a better chance to fit him within its limited budget. Even if the Braves assessed privately that Kimbrel may win his arbitration argument, it makes sense for them to roll the dice in his case in an effort to tamp down his salary, perhaps keep him longer, and augment his trade value. It even makes sense for them to bypass settlement talks, given what’s at stake. Agreeing to a new deal at the midpoint could diminish the time the Braves can retain Kimbrel.

These are not the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz Braves, who routinely posted some of the game's highest budgets through their annual success in the '90s. Atlanta's payroll will likely rank in the bottom third of teams in 2014; the Braves actually are going to spend a little more than the Tampa Bay Rays, in fact. As written here in December, carrying the game's highest-paid closer is simply impractical, like a row house homeowner constructing a gaudy fountain in his sliver of lawn.
[+] Enlarge
Norm Hall/Getty Images
The Orioles moved Jim Johnson in a one-sided trade because they deemed his 2014 salary too high.

Think about this: Kimbrel may well be able to make more in annual salary through his three years of arbitration than he would if he went through free agency, because the game continues to evolve through a period of evaluation over the value of closers. The Baltimore Orioles, for example, just dumped a highly successful closer, Jim Johnson, in a one-sided trade because the team deemed his projected salary as too expensive for their budget.

Kimbrel strikes out almost half of the hitters he faces, in a pressure role that some relievers will tell you privately they want no part of. But there is this: In 2013, Adam Wainwright faced a Major League Baseball high of 956 hitters, and James Shields was second, with 943. Kimbrel faced 258 hitters last season. The world’s best pinch-hitters would never get the same money as someone with 600 plate appearances -- and so the question persists: What are closers worth? What are those three outs in the ninth inning worth? What is the best closer -- Kimbrel -- worth?

If Kimbrel wins his case at $9 million this year and asks for something in the range of $14 million-$15 million next year, the Braves will face a very, very difficult decision about trading one of their most effective and popular players.

Another complicating factor here is that Kimbrel’s actual value in the trade market almost certainly will be substantially less than what fans perceive that it should be, because there will be only a small handful of teams willing to pay a closer $15 million or more.

The Dodgers, perhaps. (It’s noteworthy that the Dodgers recently hired Roy Clark, who drafted Kimbrel while working for the Braves.) The Yankees. Maybe some other clubs. But with the Moneyball generation of executives focused more than ever on extracting as much production as possible for their dollars, there likely are a high number of teams forever unwilling to pay a closer like a front-line starting pitcher.

In the past, the Braves had some hope of signing Kimbrel to a long-term deal. But that probably isn’t going to happen anytime soon, and the Braves' best hope for retaining one of their best players might only come in defeating him in arbitration.

Notables

• Pitchers caps were approved, as Willie Weinbaum writes. Clayton Kershaw approves.

• The Blue Jays had a lot to say Wednesday. They already have a historically high payroll, relative to what they've spent in the past, and we’ll see if they’ll spend more. Toronto fans questioned the team's idleness.

• The Dodgers have suspended season ticket sales.

• Team officials are forbidden, by collectively bargained rules, to say for the record whether they are or are not in negotiations with a particular player, and agents are supposed to be bound by similar rules -- of indicating a team has interest when it has none, in fact. But there has been a tsunami of disinformation dispensed through media outlets this offseason, especially in the past month, raising the question of why there are any rules at all.

"It's amazing how much stuff out there is flat-out wrong," said one club official.

• Bernie Miklasz asks a great question: Who bats second for the Cardinals?

• Bronson Arroyo is still unemployed, as Jayson Stark writes.

• There is a lot of sentiment among some executives that Kendrys Morales' best play at this stage of the winter -- other than to take a salary lower than the $14.1 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Mariners last fall -- would be to wait until after the June draft to sign, which would separate him from the draft-pick compensation that hangs on him. And by then, injuries will manifest and create openings that are not there now.

But following that strategy might be really difficult for a player who already has missed the better part of two seasons in his career because of an ankle injury.

• David Ortiz wants a one-year extension. The Red Sox could simply wait until after the 2014 season is over before talking any kind of extension, but holding off on this conversation until at least early in the season -- when they can be reasonably assured by Ortiz’s performance that he has a chance to be a very productive hitter in 2015 -- would be reasonable.

Ortiz has talked about going elsewhere, but the fact is he’s worth more to the Red Sox than he is to any other team, because of his history with Boston, and because the going rate for designated hitters these days is diminished. The Yankees almost certainly will not be an option for Ortiz next fall, because of all the DH candidates they already have under contract for 2015 -- Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, et al -- and the Yankees, like other teams, increasingly prefer to use the DH position to rest regulars from other positions from day to day.

Ortiz is well worth the price, writes John Tomase.

• As expected, Lance Berkman retired.

• Nolan Ryan and the Astros had a productive talk. Folks who know Ryan say he wants a meaningful job with sway in decisions made by the baseball operations department. Jeff Luhnow oversees all baseball decisions for the Astros.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Tigers hired Lance Parrish.

2. The Royals added some outfield depth.

3. Daniel Descalso agreed to terms with the Cardinals.

4. The Reds signed Ramon Santiago.

5. Scott Baker signed with the Mariners.

6. The Twins re-signed Matt Guerrier, as John Shipley writes.

7. Jeff Blair wonders if A.J. Burnett could return to the Jays.

8. The Orioles are definitely interested in Burnett, writes Dan Connolly. The emergence of Burnett in the free-agent market further muddies the water for the two pitchers attached to draft-pick compensation, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Dings and dents

• Manny Machado is going to be examined this week.

AL West

• Brennan Boesch, who signed with the Angels, is too young to disappear, writes Tom Gage.

• Some Rangers are playing in the Caribbean Series.

AL Central

• There are high expectations for the Royals.

• An Indians prospect is hungry for more.

AL East

• CC Sabathia is happy the Yankees have a pair of aces.

• Brian Roberts says that in a lot of ways, he’ll always be an Oriole.

NL Central

• The Brewers' baseball academy schedules are set.

• The Pirates got it right with A.J. Burnett, writes Ron Cook.

NL East

• A.J. Burnett would fill a need for the Phillies.

2014 Top 10 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies.

Spoiler

The Phillies system starts off nicely but drops off rapidly after the third slot. Serious injuries have taken a huge bite out of the rankings for players such as shortstop Roman Quinn, catcher Tommy Joseph, as well as pitchers Shane Watson and Adam Morgan.

#1 Maikel Franco | 65/AA (3B)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 581 173 36 31 30 70 1 .320 .356 .569 .411
The Year in Review: Franco enjoyed a breakout season at the plate in 2013 while splitting the year between High-A and Double-A. In total, he slugged 70 extra base hits — including 31 homers — and hit more than .300, which helped pull up his on-base percentage despite a low walk rate. Franco did a nice job of making hard contact and struck out about 12% of the time.

The Scouting Report: Offensively, Franco’s key tool is his plus power, which comes from his above-average bat speed. For a power hitter, he makes unusually-high contact but he’s too aggressive at times and struggles with his pitch recognition. He can also be quite streaky at times. Franco will look to increase his versatility in 2014 while reportedly splitting his time between the hot corner and first base. He has a strong arm, which would be wasted at first base, but his range is just average at the hot corner and will likely head in the wrong direction once he starts to fill out more and slow down.

The Year Ahead: Franco murdered Double-A pitchers in 69 games last year so a strong spring could push him to Triple-A. If he keeps hitting like he did in 2013, the Dominican third baseman could displace MLB sophomore Cody Asche during the second half of the season.

The Career Outlook: The corner infielder reminds me of a young Edwin Encarnacion and he could eventually develop into a middle-of-the-order threat for the Phillies.


#2 Jesse Biddle | 60/AA (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 27 27 138.1 104 10 10.02 5.33 3.64 3.76
The Year in Review: It was an up and down year for the southpaw. Biddle struck out 154 batters (the third highest total in the Eastern League) in 138.1 innings and was hard to hit (104 base knocks) but he struggled with both his command and control, as witnessed by his 82 walks — which led the league.

The Scouting Report: Like with many young, talented pitchers, Biddle will live and die by his command and control. The good news is that there are no major red flags surrounding his delivery so they will hopefully sort themselves out with addition innings and experience. Biddle has an average fastball in the low 90s, and he backs that up with a promising curveball and a good changeup. He has a strong frame that suggests he could eventually develop into a workhorse capable of providing 200+ innings a year.

The Year Ahead: Biddle should move up to Triple-A in 2014 if the Phillies feel his issues with finding the plate are improving.

The Career Outlook: Biddle has a high ceiling but he’ll have to become more consistent to realize his full potential.


#3 J.P. Crawford | 60/R (SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 228 60 9 1 32 35 14 .308 .405 .400 .390
The Year in Review: The 16th overall selection from the 2013 amateur draft, Crawford hit better than expected during his pro debut. He posted a .908 OPS in 39 Rookie ball games to earn a promotion to Low-A ball. He struggled in 14 games after the promotion but still did a nice job of controlling the strike zone. He played solid defense all season long.

The Scouting Report: A premium athlete, Crawford has a chance to develop into the Phillies’ shortstop of the future based solely on his defensive acumen. He has a strong arm with smooth actions and solid range at shortstop. He has enough speed to steal 15+ bases in a season and beat out a few infield singles. His offensive game needs the most work. Crawford, 19, needs to become stronger at the plate and quicker to the ball but he has solid bat speed and makes decent contact.

The Year Ahead: Crawford should return to Low-A ball in 2014 and will likely spend most, if not all, of the year at that level.

The Career Outlook: Carl Crawford’s cousin could be a four-tool star but he’ll have to continue to develop his bat as he moves up through the minors.


#4 Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez | 55/DNP
The Year in Review: Gonzalez hasn’t thrown much in the past few years due to his defection attempts and time off while sorting out his impending move to Major League Baseball.

The Scouting Report: The enigma. Depending who you speak to, Gonzalez is either a future No. 3/4 starter or a middle reliever. The right-hander has a low-90s fastball that can hit the mid-90s and he backs it up with a splitter, changeup and inconsistent breaking ball. One challenge Gonzalez will face will be working down in the zone more consistently. Injury concerns caused his first pro contract to be reworked after the Phillies front office saw something in his medical reports that they didn’t like.

The Year Ahead: As alluded to above, no one knows what to expect from Gonzalez but the Phillies expect him to contribute at the big league level right away. The spring time storyline will be fun to watch.

The Career Outlook: Again, time will tell when it comes to just what kind of impact the 27-year-old Cuban has for the Phillies in 2014 and beyond.


#5 Severino Gonzalez | 55/AA (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 25 14 103.2 84 5 10.33 1.91 2.00 2.25
The Year in Review: The native of Panama saw his prospect value increase significantly in 2013 after entering the year off almost everyone’s radar. He played at three levels and began the year in Low-A before ending the season in Double-A. He made a total of 25 appearances but just 14 starts. He broke the century mark in innings pitched for the first time in his pro career.

The Scouting Report: Gonzalez is a command/control pitcher with just enough fastball velocity to make things interesting. The skinny right-hander throws in the low-90s with his heater but it’s almost more notable for its movement. He throws two breaking balls — a curveball and a slider — and occasionally mixes in a changeup. There are some durability concerns with Gonzalez’s slender frame and his 14 starts in 2013 tied a career high.

The Year Ahead: Gonzalez appeared in just one Double-A game so he’ll almost certainly return to that level in 2014 after spending most of the previous season in A-ball. He’ll look to solidify his status as a future big league starter.

The Career Outlook: The 21-year-old hurler doesn’t have a massive ceiling but he has a good chance to be a long-term big league contributor with the floor of a long reliever/spot starter and ceiling of a No. 3/4 starter.


#6 Carlos Tocci | 55/A- (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
17 459 88 17 0 22 77 6 .209 .261 .249 .245
The Year in Review: For good or bad, the Phillies have been aggressive with Tocci and he was assigned to full-season ball in 2013 despite the fact that he didn’t turn 18 until late August. He struggled in 118 games and hit just .209 with a .510 OPS. He was completely lost in the second half of the season with an OPS hovering around .400.

The Scouting Report: Tocci is all about projection. He shows flashes of developing into a good hitter because of his advanced approach but he needs to get stronger and add muscle to his slender frame. Pitchers aren’t afraid to go right after him because he lacks pop — even when he hits the ball on the screws. Defensively, he projects to develop into an above-average center-fielder with good range and a strong arm.

The Year Ahead: Tocci should return to Low-A ball to open the season. If he shows some signs of life, though, he might spend a little time in High-A ball before the year is up.

The Career Outlook: The Venezuelan outfielder still has a lot of filling out to do and until he does he’ll continue to be overpowered by opposing pitchers.


#7 Aaron Altherr | 55/A+ (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 576 137 39 12 47 148 25 .268 .331 .438 .351
The Year in Review: Altherr enjoyed the best offensive season of his career but that performance came in A-ball and during fifth pro season. The 140 strikeouts in 123 games is worrisome but the increase in pop (.455 slugging percentage) is promising.

The Scouting Report: A superb athlete, Altherr is a long-term project. The Phillies have tinkered with his swing and it’s still long and inconsistent. He generates enough bat speed to put a charge into the ball when he makes good contact. If he learns to make enough contact he could hit 20+ home runs but he may never produce a strong on-base percentage. He also has above-average speed and plays a good centre field thanks to his solid range and strong arm.

The Year Ahead: Altherr will face a stiff test with his contact rates when he moves up and faces the more advanced pitchers and tougher environments of the Double-A Eastern League.

The Career Outlook: The Arizona native has a lot of polishing to do on his overall game but he has a chance to develop into an average or better regular if he can trim the Ks.


#8 Roman Quinn | 50/A- (SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 298 62 7 5 27 64 32 .238 .323 .346 .317
The Year in Review: Quinn began the year with three inconsistent months at the plate and then missed the second half of the year due to a fractured wrist. He managed to steal more than 30 bases before getting hurt.

The Scouting Report: Quinn’s best asset is his plus-plus speed, which helped him swipe 32 bases in 67 games in 2013. He’s a switch-hitter who’s still working on pitch recognition and he also needs to improve his two-strike approach and better understand what pitchers are trying to do to get him out. Defensively, he’s still working to smooth out his actions but he has a good arm and above-average range at shortstop.

The Year Ahead: After missing the second half of 2013, Quinn spend all of 2014 rehabbing from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles’ tendon that occurred in November.

The Career Outlook: A year and a half of missed development time is the absolute last thing that this prospect needed while looking to jumpstart his offense.


#9 Cesar Hernandez | 50/MLB (2B/OF)
Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
23 131 6.9 % 19.8 % .289 .344 .331 .305 90 -3.3 -3.9 -0.4
The Year in Review: It took five years for Hernandez to climb above the A-ball level but he finally reached the Majors in 2013. Prior to his promotion to The Show, the young Venezuelan performed well in Triple-A and stole 32 bases in 107 games. At the big league level, Hernandez split time at two positions but he was overpowered at the plate.

The Scouting Report: Another athletic player, Hernandez improved his versatility in 2013 by spending time in center field after playing most of his career at second base. He is a very good defensive second baseman and shows flashes of developing into an above-average outfielder. At the plate, he has a line-drive approach, which works well with his plus speed. He needs to get stronger and he strikes out too much for a player who should be focusing on getting on base and utilizing his legs.

The Year Ahead: Philadelphia doesn’t project to have the most potent back-up infielders so a strong spring could help Hernandez beat out Freddy Galvis or Kevin Frandsen for a roster spot.

The Career Outlook: Hernandez likely won’t see much time as a big league regular but he could develop into a value back-up player capable of playing both the infield and the outfield.

Additional Notes


#10 Tommy Joseph | 50/AA (C)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 131 22 4 3 7 30 0 .179 .229 .285 .240
The Year in Review: Injuries wiped out Joseph’s season and concussion concerns could threaten the young catcher’s future behind the plate. Before getting hurt, though, his offense sputtered and he was demoted from Triple-A. He later played at both High-A and Double-A.

The Scouting Report: Joseph is an offensive-minded catcher with above-average, right-handed power. He has an inconsistent approach at the plate and doesn’t project to get on base at a terribly high rate. He shows a strong arm behind the plate and has had some success controlling the running game but he needs work on his receiving, blocking and game calling.

The Year Ahead: Joseph will look to stay healthy in 2014 and will need to avoid suffering another significant blow to the head, which is by no means an easy task for a catcher. He’ll open the year back in Double-A.

The Career Outlook: It’s hard to envision Joseph remaining behind the plate for his entire career. If he does in fact have to move at some point it will put a significant strain on expectations surrounding his offensive production.

The Next Five:

11. Andrew Knapp, C: An offensive-minded catcher, Knapp is still relatively new to the position so he’ll be given some time to improve his receiving, game calling, blocking and throwing –although he does show above-average arm strength. Where he really shines, though, is at the plate. He’s a switch-hitter with good power potential but he needs to make a little more contact if he’s going to hit for average as he moves up the organizational ladder.

12. Dylan Cozens, OF: Cozens, 19, is a huge kid at 6-6, 235 pounds. He’s still learning the finer aspects of the game after splitting his focus in high school between baseball and football. He has above-average raw power from the left side. He runs well for his size and has a strong arm; he projects as a power-hitting right-fielder.

13. Cord Sandberg, OF: Similar to Cozens, Sandberg was a two-sport star in high school and turned down the opportunity to play college football. He has above-average, left-handed power but is still learning to tap into it in game situations. He has good bat speed. Sandberg has a patient approach and has an idea at the plate. Defensively, he should be above-average in left field thanks to his range and solid arm.

14. Shane Watson, RHP: A big, strong-bodied right-hander, the 40th overall selection in the 2012 draft looked like a future steal but shoulder surgery will wipe out most of his 2014 season. When healthy, he flashes two potentially-plus offerings in his low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball. His changeup also has a chance to be average.

15. Adam Morgan, LHP: Morgan was well on his way to becoming one of the best left-handed pitchers in the minors before injuries derailed his career. When healthy, he shows an above-average fastball and two solid secondary pitches. Shoulder surgery will knock him out of action for most, if not all, of 2014.

The Myth of the Royals and 2014.

Spoiler

To me, it isn’t fair to evaluate trades in retrospect. While there can be significance there, it’ll be out-shouted by all the random noise, and you can only ever make a decision based upon the information that you have at the time. But we can still look at trades in retrospect, just to see how they worked out, and of course there’s some insight in exploring the deal that swapped James Shields and another for Wil Myers and others. Plenty was written here about the trade at the time. Shields was worth 4.5 WAR last year, and he projects for 4 WAR this year. Myers was worth 2.4 WAR last year in a partial season, and he projects for 3 WAR this year. Shields is expensive and in his contract season. Myers is cheap and under control forever. This was basically the problem all along, even ignoring all the other parts, which can’t be ignored.

I don’t think opinions of the trade have changed. Those who supported the Royals going for it still applaud the boldness. Those who criticized the Royals going for it still believe it was a poorly-timed mistake. The move was controversial enough that people have dug in to their positions, and those minds are all made up. I’m definitely still on the critical side, myself. I thought it was too short-term of a move for a team that wasn’t ready. But a lot of people have taken this one step further. There’s a common belief that, by making the trade, the Royals gave themselves a two-year window, before losing Shields to free agency. The first year is gone. So there’s one year left of the window, but really, there’s not. The truth is a lot less black and a lot less white.

Submitted to Dave’s earlier FanGraphs chat:

12:33
Comment From Dan
What’s the current window for the Royals? Can they make a playoff push in 2014?
12:33
Dave Cameron: Sure, and then they’re going to have to figure something else out when James Shields wants $150 million.

Here’s the outline of it: the Royals have put together a decent team for the 2014 season. Could be a contender. Might still make another move. Shields is by far the best starter on the team, and maybe the best player. Shields’ chances of returning after 2014 are virtually nil, since he’ll be expensive and the Royals can’t afford to commit those kinds of free-agent dollars. So a year from now, the Royals will lose an important player, picking up only a draft pick. This is supposed to signal the end of their window of contention.

Obviously, losing Shields does more harm than good, but it seems like this is a classic case of overrating the impact of any one given player, non-Trout division. Granted, that’s the same thought process that brought Shields to Kansas City in the first place, and granted, Shields isn’t the only guy the Royals stand to lose next offseason. Norichika Aoki will be a free agent. Luke Hochevar will be a free agent. Billy Butler has a club option, but it’s somewhat pricey. But this gets to something I touched on the other day: teams aren’t that fragile. The Royals are more than an individual good starting pitcher, and it’s not like the trade completely thinned the system out.

Regarding the prospects, Marc Hulet had some flattering things to say. The same goes for Baseball America. Keith Law ranked the Royals’ system seventh-best in baseball, between the Mets and the Rockies. He wrote:

This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals’ biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.

If you’re looking for potential Shields replacements, you need look no further than Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer. Absolutely, each has plenty to prove, but they’re also upper-class starting prospects who aren’t far away from the majors. Ventura already got there late last season, and he’s among the very hardest-throwing starters in the world. There are questions about his changeup, but the velocity gives him a hell of a margin of error. Zimmer has limited experience above Single-A, but he has stuff and a track record of being overpowering, and he’s college-polished. Few systems boast two starters of this ability and this proximity to the bigs, and both could be 25-30-start guys a year from now. Ventura might be that guy this year. ZiPS gave him Matt Clement, but then Clement was pretty useful before his arm was destroyed.

The Royals stand to lose Shields, but they stand to promote from within, and in the event of injury the depth goes beyond just those two prospects. It’s probably worth noting that Danny Duffy has all kinds of upside potential if he’s actually healthy these days. The team’s locked into Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie, but Vargas should remain useful and Guthrie isn’t a total mess.

The position-player side is as stuck as it is interesting. It’s difficult to upgrade, because just about every spot is occupied by someone decent or young and potentially decent. But what that means is there’s promise remaining, and the fact that Eric Hosmer started to hit means Mike Moustakas could still improve. The system, also, has talented position players — they just aren’t as close to being impact players as Ventura and Zimmer. What the Royals have in 2014, they could basically have in 2015 if they wanted, sans Aoki, who’s simply all right. There aren’t really stars but there aren’t really holes.

What’s most assuredly clear is that the Royals aren’t going to have it easy. They’re a good deal worse than the Tigers this coming season, and the season after that could lean heavily on a couple hard-throwing young pitching prospects. They’ll be able to re-invest some money saved on Shields and Hochevar and Aoki and others, but that sum also isn’t very big, and the Royals are a smaller-budget operation. They need to have a fairly constant infusion of cheap youth, and that’s another way that exchanging Myers for Shields worked against their own best interests. They need guys like Myers more than they need guys like Shields.

But I think it’s fair and entirely reasonable to hold two simultaneous positions:

The Royals made a mistake, in making the Shields trade
The trade wasn’t crippling and the team can succeed even after Shields is gone
There is no 2013-2014 window. The Royals don’t need to behave as if it’s 2014 or bust, and they haven’t behaved that way, really. It was a trade intended to improve two seasons at a long-term cost, but it hasn’t been devastating to the organizational health, and it’s okay if the Royals don’t make the playoffs this October. More people at that point would look at the Shields move as an error, but I feel like we already know that much to be true. But most errors, teams can survive, and while the Royals could be worse without Shields, they won’t go from good to bad. It’s not binary. As usual, it’ll be nothing but a matter of percentage points.

To me, the Royals made one of the worst realistic trades you can make. Today they’re sitting in a half-decent position, for both the present and for the future. The lesson is — well, there are a lot of lessons. The important thing is to learn them.

The Rising Price and Length of Free Agent Contracts.

Spoiler

The 2013-2014 free agent season isn’t over yet. Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett, Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales, Nelson Cruz, and Bronson Arroyo are still on the market and in most cases are looking for multi-year contracts. Between just those seven, I’d imagine MLB teams will probably commit somewhere between $250 and $300 million, and when they do, they’re going to push total spending on free agent contracts handed out this winter over $2 billion.

I’m not breaking any news here, but the rapid increase in free agent contracts over the last five years is still pretty staggering. Just for fun, I pulled all the data for Major League contracts signed for each of the last five years from ESPN’s free agent tracker, and dumped the data into a spreadsheet. Here are some total numbers for each of the last five free agent classes.


Year MLB Contracts Multi-Year Contracts Total Years Total Dollars Average Years Average Salary
2009 121 32 174 $846,795,000 1.4 $4,866,638
2010 124 43 198 $1,305,955,000 1.6 $6,595,732
2011 106 30 182 $1,366,988,058 1.7 $7,510,923
2012 89 42 165 $1,337,125,000 1.9 $8,103,788
2013 89 48 184 $1,775,075,000 2.1 $9,647,147
We already have seen more multi-year contracts signed this off-season than any of the previous four, and depending on how many of the second tier pitchers — Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, Jason Hammel, etc… — land two year deals, there’s probably another 10 to go. If a couple of the available relievers end up snagging two year contracts as well, we could see the off-season end with 60 multi-year deals, almost double the number given out five years ago, and that’s with a smaller total number of MLB contracts handed out.

And the overall annual average value of contracts handed out this winter is almost exactly double the overall AAV of contracts handed out in 2009: $9.65 million to $4.87 million. We all know that the cost of signing a free agent has gone up a lot since these new TV deals started making MLB teams richer than they’ve ever been, but I didn’t realize just how quickly the total numbers had doubled.

Now, those averages for 2013 will come down a bit by the time the off-season is over, as there aren’t any more mega contracts to be signed that will drive those prices up, and there’s still a decent amount of filler arms that will likely sign low dollar one year deals before spring training opens. But of the 147 players who filed for free agency, we’re probably only looking at 100-115 Major League contracts, and it’s very possible that, for the first time in MLB free agent history, that most of the MLB contracts handed out will be multi-year deals, not one year pacts.

The death of the one year contract looks particularly stark if you focus on the last two off-seasons versus the prior three. From 2009 to 2011, 105 of the 351 MLB deals handed out were for two years or more, or just 30% of the total. In 2012 and 2013, 90 of the 178 contracts we’ve seen signed have been for two years or more, or 51% of the total. Even if we see a late barrage of one year deals, the one year/multi-year breakdown is still going to come in around 50/50 for the second year in a row, after being between 25/75 and 35/65 for most of the free agent periods that came before.

As MLB teams get more secured long term revenues, they’ve been more willing to give out longer guaranteed contracts, knowing that even if their attendance crashes, they’ve still got enough TV money around to pay their future commitments. And, of course, with more money in the game than ever before, the price to sign a free agent even on a short term deal has gone up as well. The surge in total spending has been driven by an increase in both price and length, which has pushed the average overall free agent contract from $7 million in 2009 to $20 million in 2013. The rate of increase has been slightly faster in AAV than in years, but both are clearly trending upwards.

And keep in mind, none of this data includes the explosion of free-agent priced extensions that we’ve seen in recent years. From Joey Votto to Clayton Kershaw — with Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and many others in between — it has become pretty normal for non-free agents to sign contracts that rival the largest free agent deals in any given off-season, and this data isn’t capturing any of those commitments, so the total rise in recent contract expenditures over the last few years is probably even greater than these numbers show.

This is mostly a post without a conclusion, as I’m not really trying to make any broad points other than just to present some information, but I will say this: it is evidently clear that free agent prices have been trending upwards pretty rapidly over the last five years, and there’s no real indication that this trend is going to slow down any time soon, at least while cable companies are tying their long team success to the exclusive rights to show live sporting events. So, in the interest of having a conclusion, I’ll simply say this: perhaps the MLBPA should send a really big thank you card to Netflix, Amazon, Redbox, and all the other companies that are threatening the old cable business models. Major League free agents are getting very rich thanks to those companies existence.

New Protective Hats Raise Questions Regarding Usefulness.

Spoiler

Though it can sometimes occur, we do not watch baseball for the violence. That is reserved for football — the bone-crushing hits, the gruesome tackles, the cringe-worthy collisions. Baseball is supposed to transcend that. It’s a game of athleticism, certainly, but it’s about grace and fluidity and unencumbered effort. This is not to say that baseball is without contact of course. There are the double-play-breaking slides at second, the collisions at home. Major League Baseball has taken measures to combat the latter, and, very recently, to take on another injury concern — players getting hit by batted balls.

We remember Ray Chapman certainly, who was struck in the head with a pitch and remains the only player to die on a major league field. The baseball itself underwent fundamental changes after that incident in 1920. There’s also Mike Coolbaugh, the minor-league first base coach that was killed after being hit in the head by a foul boul. Major League Baseball has reacted to this as well, making base coaches wear batting helmets while on the field. On Tuesday, it was announced that MLB has approved a new type of hat geared toward protecting the heads of pitchers from line drives. This, on the surface, is a good thing. It’s a good thing on any layer, but if the goal is really to protect pitchers on the mound, it still might not be enough.
The new caps, produced by a company called isoBlox, are specifically padded to provide a pitcher head protection should a line drive find him during a game. They have approximately .5″ of padding in the front and 1″ of padding on the sides. The hat looks like this:

And therein lies the first problem — it’s going to be hard to get players to wear them. Ball caps are made to feel like they’re not there. A hat that sticks out an inch on either side is bound to be noticeable, and distracting to a pitcher. It also weighs about twice as much as a normal cap. We’re talking about ounces here, but if a part of a uniform suddenly weighs twice as much, it’s bound to be bothersome.

One of the more publicized cases of a pitcher getting struck in the head with a batted ball came in 2012, when Brandon McCarthy was hit with a line drive. His skull was fractured and he needed surgery to alleviate pressure that had built in his skull. He also suffered a seizure due to his injuries. If anyone were to be an advocate for this new head gear, it would be McCarthy. Yet, in a story published by ESPN, he is quoted as saying he wouldn’t wear the hat, saying it is too bulky, too hot, and too noticeable. He seems for the idea of protection in general, but not in the way it was presented Tuesday.

Even if a pitcher were to wear this new hat, electing to deal with the bulkiness and heat that goes with it, there is a chance that it may not even protect him from many line drives. The hat is designed to withstand frontal impacts of 90 MPH and side impacts of 85 MPH. This meets MLB’s requirement, as it has deemed — through independent study — that the average speed of a line drive when it reaches the mound is around 83 MPH. This is where the second problem arises.

Dr. Alan Nathan, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois, has done extensive research on the physics of baseball. Citing publicly-made HITf/x data from April 2009, he says that line drives to the mound average a bit faster.

“The average of such batted balls is 90 MPH,” says Nathan. “But there are a significant number exceeding 95 MPH. Balls hit that fast are on the cusp of a pitcher’s ability to react. At 100 MPH, a pitcher has about 0.4 sec[onds] to react. At 80 MPH, it is more like 0.5 sec[onds]. That extra 0.1 sec[onds] makes a very big difference.”

However, Nathan says that the protection would not be without merit.

“Protection designed for 80 will certainly help when the actual speed is 100. Something is better than nothing. Perhaps even a lot better […]

While 80 mph is definitely below the speed where such impacts occur, using such protection certainly will help for the higher-speed collisions.”

Dr. Nathan pointed to a few examples of balls exceeding 90 MPH that struck pitchers in the head, including (note: the following videos are not for the squeamish)David Huff in 2010 (101 MPH), Alex Cobb in 2013 (102 MPH), and J.A. Happ in in 2013 (97.4 MPH). While protection of any kind would have helped negate some of the force of these balls, none of these pitchers would have been fully protected had they been wearing this new hat. And while most players might be reluctant to wear it, it may be most beneficial to the recently-concussed players in those days following a concussive episode.

The affect of concussions on players has certainly been a point of contention in football, but baseball seems to be taking some strides as well. In 2011, a new seven-day disabled list was introduced, specifically designed for players with concussion-like symptoms. This was to allow them time for their symptoms to recede before they took the field again. Additionally, players were required to wear a new style of batting helmet in 2013 to combat concussions caused by pitches to the head. This helmet was originally utilized by players who had suffered a recent concussion.

Dr. Semyon Slobounov, director of the Virtual Reality/Traumatic Brain Injury Research Laboratory at Penn State University, says that there are still two schools of thought when it comes to repeated concussions. One says that they should be treated as separate events, the other says they should be treated as cumulative. However, he pointed to studies that concluded that the shorter the distance between concussive events, the more susceptible one would be to post-concussive symptoms. There are also studies that state the more concussions one encounters, the heavier the post-concussive symptoms become, says Slobounov. These conclusions are still being debated, however, as methodology remains a point of discussion.

Head injuries are head injuries and anything that helps prevent them are valuable. This first stab at protecting pitchers isn’t perfect, but first stabs rarely are. It is promising to see MLB taking steps toward injury prevention of any kind, even though this attempt may not see much on-field action. A long while back, batting helmets weren’t used in the game at all. Neither were ankle guards or elbow pads or hockey-style catchers masks. The game evolves with safety slowly but surely, and even though these new hats are big and goofy and hot, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to envision a version of them being used regularly in our lifetimes.

 

[proshares]

Top 10 prospects (AL East).

Spoiler

AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST





Orioles' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kevin Gausman, RHP (23)
2. Dylan Bundy, RHP (31)
3. Hunter Harvey, RHP (3
4. E. Rodriguez, LHP (43)
5. J. Schoop, 2B/3B (86)
6. Mike Wright, RHP
7. Chance Sico, C
8. Josh Hart, CF
9. Adrian Marin, SS
10. Tim Berry, LHP
Baltimore Orioles
Org rank: 10

Farm system overview

This is the strongest that the Orioles' system has been in years, with five legitimate starting pitching prospects, two likely to contribute this season, and some growth in position-player depth.

Hunter Harvey, their first pick in the 2013 draft, took a big step forward after signing thanks to some delivery fine-tuning, and catcher Chance Sisco, their second pick, is a better receiver than expected despite the fact that he only began catching full-time last spring. The system also includes Henry Urrutia, an older Cuban outfielder who might be a platoon DH option; Michael Ohlman, a below-average defensive catcher who might have a bench role because he can hit and has at least gap power; and 22nd-rounder Jon Keller, signed from NCAA Division II Tampa, who threw 98 mph in rookie ball, but with a rough, reliever-only delivery.

2014 impact

You'll see Kevin Gausman in the big leagues quite a bit this year in the rotation or the pen; I wouldn't mind seeing him break back in as a reliever, but only if that means longer outings where he can continue to develop his slider. Mike Wright should also get a trial in the back of the Orioles' rotation at some point; he's up to 96 mph with an average change and fringy curveball. Jonathan Schoop should see some major league time this year at second base if he's fully healthy.

The fallen

Branden Kline was their No. 7 prospect in 2013, but broke his right fibula in a conditioning drill in May and didn't return until the Arizona Fall League; now 22 years old, he has yet to pitch above low Class A. The Orioles also traded three of their top 10 prospects from last year, sending Nick Delmonico to Milwaukee and both L.J. **** and Josh Hader to Houston.

Sleeper

Olelky Peralta was a free agent signed out of the Dominican Republic for $325,000, and blew scouts away in instructional league, hitting 95 mph with his fastball, showing good rotation on a curveball and demonstrating the ability to throw his fastball for strikes. Some teams thought Peralta was ineligible to sign until July, which may be why his bonus was a little lower -- but credit the Orioles for jumping on the opportunity to land a projectable 6-foot-5 right-hander with an electric arm.



Red Sox's Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Xander Bogaerts, SS (2)
2. Henry Owens, LHP (42)
3. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF (51)
4. Garin Cecchini, 3B (53)
5. Blake Swihart, C (56)
6. Mookie Betts, 2B (61)
7. Matt Barnes, RHP (89)
8. Allen Webster, RHP
9. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
10. Trey Ball, LHP
Boston Red Sox
Org rank: 4

Farm system overview

Because what the world wanted to hear was that the defending World Series champs have one of the game's best and deepest systems, right? The Red Sox have drafted exceedingly well the past few years, loading the system with up-the-middle position-player talent, along with a handful of starters boasting mid-rotation upside.

Xander Bogaerts showed flashes in October of why he's a potential monster, with a mature approach at the plate and strong, quick wrists. Henry Owens' fastball and breaking ball were both much better in 2013 than in 2012, without giving up any of the deception that made him hard to hit before last season.

The No. 11 prospect in the system, had I continued, is premium defensive catcher Christian Vazquez, who isn't a great offensive prospect but makes so much contact that he'll likely end up an average to above-average regular overall. Lefty Brian Johnson still could be a No. 4 or 5 starter, and showed a little extra velocity in instructional league.

Boston took a few project guys in the 2013 draft after first-rounder Trey Ball, including fallen idol Jon Denney, a catcher who came into the spring as a surefire first-rounder but struggled badly down the stretch as he lost strength and energy; and Teddy Stankiewicz, an excellent athlete who can hit 94-95 mph with good command, thanks to a repeatable delivery. And they signed 16-year-old Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers, a left-handed hitter with big-time power and a very good swing, for $1.5 million in August.

2014 impact

Bogaerts should be their every-day shortstop; I'm not convinced there's a $6 million gap between what he'll provide and what Stephen Drew would provide, let alone a $12 million one. Jackie Bradley Jr. appears on track to be the Opening Day center fielder. Allen Webster and Anthony Ranaudo should get starts whenever Boston needs to fill in for someone in the major league rotation. Webster needs to show he can command his fastball, especially in the lower half, while Ranaudo was all over the place both times I saw him last year, and has to iron out some timing issues around his landing.

The fallen

Their 2012 first-rounder, Deven Marrero, slugged .317 on the year across two levels, and there's not a lot you can do to paper over that. He can still play excellent defense at short, and was 27-for-29 on stolen base attempts despite a hamstring pull early in the season, but right now he looks like a No. 8 or 9 hitter in the big leagues whom pitchers might blow away with better velocity.

Sleeper

Last year's sleeper, Manuel Margot, would be No. 12 in the system now, and could make the leap next year with a full season in low Class A. He's an above-average defender in center who can run and throw and takes good at-bats for someone who won't turn 20 until September.



Yankees' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Gary Sanchez, C (6
2. Tyler Austin, RF (85)
3. Mason Williams, CF (87)
4. J.R. Murphy, C
5. Slade Heathcott, CF
6. Aaron Judge, CF
7. Ian Clarkin, LHP
8. Eric Jagielo, 3B
9. Luis Severino, RHP
10. Greg Bird, 1B
New York Yankees
Org rank: 20

Farm system overview

What a miserable year for the Yankees on the farm. Tyler Austin, Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Aaron Judge, Ian Clarkin and Gabe Encinas all got hurt, with Judge missing the entire summer after the Yankees nabbed him with one of their three first-round picks. For most of those guys, the injuries just meant lost years, but in Heathcott's case, there's a legitimate question about whether he can ever stay healthy enough to be an every-day player.

Gary Sanchez was healthy, but just didn't hit anywhere close to expectations. J.R. Murphy's year was the brightest spot, as he's going to be an every-day catcher for somebody. Greg Bird's patience/power game could make him a second-division regular down the road. Luis Severino's three-pitch mix might be three pluses out of the pen, and it's a grade-65 or 70 fastball even in the rotation. However, he's less than 6-foot, and he has to prove he can maintain his stuff over a full season when going six innings every time out.

Their 2013 second-round pick, California prep second baseman Gosuke Katoh, had the best year of all of their high selections, tearing up the rookie-level Gulf Coast League with great plate discipline while playing strong defense.

2014 impact

Other than some relief help from someone like right-hander Mark Montgomery or hard-throwing and often-hurt Jose Ramirez (No. 11 in their system), the Yankees aren't likely to give any significant playing time to rookies this year.

The fallen

Heathcott can't stay healthy and had to have more work done on one of his knees after he tried to play through it all year. He couldn't run, his reads in center were poor, and his makeup has never been his strong suit. (One scout: "He's legitimately a crazy person." That scout is not a real doctor, however.) Heathcott fell off the top 100 entirely, and I don't see him returning there until he has a full, productive season.

Sleeper

Aside from Severino, whom I mentioned above and who could be a No. 3 starter or more if his size doesn't preclude a future in the rotation, the Yankees have to be excited about Venezuelan catcher Luis Torrens, whom they signed for $1.3 million in July 2012. A new convert to catching, Torrens took to it extremely well, with plus hands and plus defense overall, with a good swing and feel at the plate, only lacking power but likely hitting for average with good OBP when he develops.



Rays' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (66)
2. Hak-Ju Lee, SS (79)
3. Nick Ciuffo, C (95)
4. Alex Colome, RHP
5. Enny Romero, LHP
6. Ryne Stanek, RHP
7. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
8. Drew Vettleson, RF
9. Oscar Hernandez, C
10. Jose Mujica, RHP
Tampa Bay Rays
Org rank: 23

Farm system overview

The Rays use their system aggressively to fill out their major league roster and depend on it to provide a steady flow of prospects who can handle all kinds of roles. The pipeline is starting to dry up, as their drafts have been less productive since 2007, when they selected David Price and Matt Moore.

Taylor Guerrieri, still their best prospect, blew out his elbow in July and earned a 50-game suspension after a second positive drug test. Hak-Ju Lee had his ankle destroyed on a double-play ball, and it remains to be seen how much of his speed and defense is still there post-surgery. They capitalized on two late first-round picks with premium receiver Nick Ciuffo and right-hander Ryne Stanek, who would have been a top-10 pick if not for injury concern. As usual, the Rays have a slew of power arms from Latin America in their system, mostly future relievers but a few with chances to start.

2014 impact

Alex Colome and Enny Romero are both likely to get big league time this year, at least in the pen. Jake Odorizzi is probably the first starter up if any of the Rays' five starters needs to miss a start or two, and Lee could be up by midyear if he hasn't lost too much quickness.

The fallen

Jake Hager, my sleeper for the Rays last year, just did not hit at all in 2013, putting up a .258/.318/.305 line at age 20 in the high Class A Florida State League. The former first-rounder was young for his level and plays adequate defense at short, but you're not going to get to the big leagues with an ISO of less than 50 points unless you're a Gold Glove defender or can run like Billy Hamilton.

Sleeper

Right-hander Jose Mujica shows an above-average fastball now with heavy sink and a plus 82-85 mph changeup with plus control and the size (6-2, 200 pounds) to be a mid-rotation starter if he can develop a breaking ball. I've got him just over lefty Jose Castillo (No. 11), who has better present stuff, including an average or better curveball, but less feel or command.



Blue Jays' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Aaron Sanchez, RHP (30)
2. Marcus Stroman, RHP (5
3. Robert Osuna, RHP
4. Daniel Norris, LHP
5. Adonis, Cardona, RHP
6. Jairo Labourt, LHP
7. Alberto Tiraro, RHP
8. Franklin Barreto, SS
9. Dawel Lugo, SS
10. D.J. Davis, CF
Toronto Blue Jays
Org rank: 24

Farm system overview

The Jays gambled the farm last winter, and the result is that there's not a whole lot left on their full-season rosters -- just the three starters Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Daniel Norris, with all of the other top prospects in their system spending 2013 in short-season ball.

The failure to sign their first-round picks in 2011 or 2013 didn't help matters, regardless of whether their decisions not to sign those guys were correct -- the void is here either way. They did get a nice surprise from Canadian-born pitcher Tom Robson (No. 11 in the system), who was pitching 91 to 95 mph by season's end and generates a ton of ground balls, but needs work on his curve and changeup. Chase DeJong (No. 12) shows feel for three pitches and throws strikes, projecting as a possible fourth starter.

Four other top 100 prospects came from the Jays' system, but were traded away last winter: Noah Syndergaard, Travis d'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and Justin Nicolino. The bright spot here is the team's effort in Latin America, where former international scouting director Marco Paddy loaded up the system with shortstops and power arms before he left to take a similar position with the White Sox.

2014 impact

This should be Stroman's year to break into the majors, likely as a starter -- the Jays could use him -- but with the pen always an option to help keep his innings load down. Kevin Pillar (No. 13 in the system) should spend the year in Toronto as an extra outfielder, while Ryan Goins may stick as a utility infielder.

The fallen

Roberto Osuna, a top-100 prospect a year ago, had a rough 10 starts in low Class A Lansing before undergoing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August and likely won't pitch again until instructional league this fall.

Sleeper

If Franklin Barreto stays at shortstop, which most scouts seem to think he will, he has a chance to be an impact guy with the bat. He's an average to slightly above-average defender but has a plus arm. At the plate, he shows a feel to hit and power to the opposite field, with a strong, compact body that doesn't prevent him from being a plus runner and an agile defender on the dirt.

Top 10 prospects (AL Central).

Spoiler

White Sox's Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Erik Johnson, RHP (59)
2. Matt Davidson, 3B (8
3. Tim Anderson, SS (9
4. Courtney Hawkins, OF
5. Micah Johnson, 2B
6. Marcus Semien, IF
7. Trayce Thompson, CF
8. Chris Beck, RHP
9. Andrew Mitchell, RHP
10. Jacob May, OF
Chicago White Sox
Org rank: 27

Farm system overview

Although its overall rank is low, the White Sox's system is in the best shape of its life -- or at least since I started compiling these rankings. They've taken a more open approach to the draft recently, mixing in more high-ceiling candidates early without eschewing probability, and finding some athletes on whom they could gamble after the first few rounds.

Courtney Hawkins, their first-rounder two years ago, was pushed too aggressively to high Class A and struggled to make contact, but at 19 he was just too young and raw for that level, and the tools that made him a top 100 prospect before 2013 -- the power, the arm, the speed -- are all still there. Repeating the Carolina League won't be the worst thing in the world for him, and he'll need to focus on using the whole field and being less pull-conscious.

Micah Johnson opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League with his speed, although he'll need a lot of work at second and may end up in center field. Tim Anderson was the team's first-round pick in 2013, and their third-rounder, Andrew Mitchell, was misused at TCU as a reliever, but projects as a starter with a possible three- or four-pitch mix. Their second-rounder, right-hander Tyler Danish, has a brutal arm action, but what comes out is mid-90s velocity and he could move quickly as a reliever. (I didn't, and still don't, like Chris Sale's arm action, but the White Sox have done pretty well with that one.)

The No. 11 prospect in the system is Scott Snodgress, a left-handed starter whose results in the rotation haven't been good enough to keep him there, but who has the potential three-pitch arsenal to be a reliever who's more than just a one-batter specialist.

2014 impact

Johnson will be one of the top rookies in the American League in 2014, with a rotation spot in hand and the body and delivery to make 30-plus starts at a league-average level. Matt Davidson appears to be in line for the everyday third-base job, a potential .250-260 hitter this year with 15-20 homers and plenty of doubles.

Marcus Semien could be the team's second baseman if they give him a shot to supplant Gordon Beckham, or he'd be an ideal utility infielder who can play all three skill positions. Daniel Webb (No. 12) should spend time in the major league pen this year. I haven't included Jose Abreu in any rankings due to his age and experience, but he is a true rookie and will likely put up big power numbers if he spends the full year in Chicago. That's a lot of youth for the White Sox, who were disinclined to give that much playing time to prospects during Kenny Williams' last few years as GM.

The fallen

Jared Mitchell was the team's first-round pick in 2009, but he's never played as well as he did that summer, missing 2010 due to injury and struggling to make contact at every level. His .167/.293/.257 line in Double- and Triple-A last year was a new low, and he's a candidate to be outrighted or released off the team's 40-man roster this year.

Sleeper

Chicago's 2013 third-round pick, outfielder Jacob May, is the grandson of longtime major leaguer Lee May Sr., and had a very strong pro debut last summer, finishing very strongly in high Class A Kannapolis. He's strong for his size and an above-average runner with a chance to stay in center, needing work on his pitch recognition and overall approach at the plate after coming out of Coastal Carolina.




Indians' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Francisco Lindor, SS (6)
2. Clint Frazier, OF (45)
3. Dorssys Paulino, SS
4. Trevor Bauer, RHP
5. Cody Anderson, RHP
6. Jose Ramirez, 2B
7. Tyler Naquin, CF
8. Tony Wolters, C
9. Mitch Brown, RHP
10. Carlos Moncrief, OF
Cleveland Indians
Org rank: 17

Farm system overview

Francisco Lindor is a future superstar, anchoring a system that is somewhat thin after the first three names and wasn't helped by down years from a number of top guys. They also graduated Danny Salazar, who looks like he will be, at worst, a good mid-rotation starter and flashes the kind of stuff in his fastball and splitter that could make him an ace.

Dorssys Paulino, Trevor Bauer and Jose Ramirez all had disappointing years, although both infielders were very young for where they played and I'm still fairly bullish on their futures. Tony Wolters, a convert to catcher last year, is intriguing, as he has the makeup to be at least a high-quality backup, and given another 200 games or so back there could develop into a starter.

Cody Anderson was their biggest jumper last year, a late pick who barely pitched in college, but now has a 93-96 mph fastball with three off-speed pitches, and who has the size and frame to hold 200 innings a year after Cleveland builds up his workloads.

Beyond the top 10, they still have Ronny Rodriguez (No. 11), a shortstop with the tools to be in the top five in the system but who has shown no ability to make adjustments at the plate; Eric Gonzalez (No. 12), a convert to shortstop who has shown tremendous aptitude for the position; and a number of power arms who look like pen guys or back-end starters, including Kieran Lovegrove, Dylan Baker, and Dace Kime, with Kime most likely to pan out in the rotation.

2014 impact

I wouldn't rule out seeing Lindor in the majors this year, as he's pretty close to ready right now and has been unfazed by everything Cleveland has thrown at him so far. Bauer and Anderson will likely see some time in the major league rotation, although Bauer has to earn the team's trust after his dumpster fire 2013.

The fallen

Bauer was a top-30 prospect with Arizona before a trade to Cleveland last winter, but he couldn't throw strikes this past season, even in Triple-A, and his velocity varied more from start to start than it ever had before. For a guy who talks a lot about his delivery, he's been unable to find a consistent one that would allow him to command the fastball, and at year end was cutting himself off to try to protect his groin muscle and made everything flatten out.

The bottom line for Bauer is that he has to throw his fastball for strikes so he can get to the good off-speed stuff. Any delivery talk that doesn't work toward that end is just folderol.

Sleeper

Francisco Mejia, 17, was one of the best prospects in the rookie-level Arizona League last year, a catcher with a plus arm and the athleticism to be an everyday backstop while also showing above-average raw power, especially for someone so young.



Tigers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. N. Castellanos, 3B (32)
2. Daniel Fields, CF
3. Robbie Ray, LHP
4. Jonathan Crawford, RHP
5. Jake Thompson, RHP
6. James McCann, C
7. Tyler Collins, OF
8. Cory Knebel, RHP
9. Endrys Briceno, RHP
10. Eugenio Suarez, SS
Detroit Tigers
Org rank: 28

Farm system overview

Nick Castellanos is going to be a very good big leaguer, but after him, there's at least an argument that they don't have a future-average prospect in the system -- a pessimistic argument, to be sure, but not a wildly unreasonable one.

The Tigers have used their system aggressively to bolster the big league club, mostly via trades, and have lost some first-round picks to sign free agents, making it harder for the amateur scouting staff to keep pace. Their first-rounder from 2013, Jonathan Crawford, projects as a top-end reliever if the Tigers choose to put him on that track, although he was a starter in college and I expect Detroit to at least give that a year or so first.

Daniel Fields has had a strange path in pro ball, signing for a higher-than-recommended signing bonus as a sixth-round pick in 2009, then going straight from high school to high Class A Lakeland at age 19, then spending two-and-a-half years there before graduating to Double-A. He's turned into an above-average center fielder and is still improving on both sides of the ball, and gives the Tigers their best shot at another above-average regular from their system.

Endrys Briceno is intriguing, a three-pitch guy who can sink the fastball and needs more than anything to fill out his slender frame. Not listed are a number of relief candidates, including Kevin Ziomek, Drew VerHagen, Casey Crosby (who couldn't stay healthy as a starter) and Jose Valdes, who's up to 100 mph with a hard slider and needs to learn to dial it down for better command.

2014 impact

Castellanos will be their everyday third baseman and a top five rookie in the league, maybe the best rookie under age 25 this year. Corey Knebel was their second pick in the 2013 draft, a pure reliever who might be a quick-to-the-majors-before-he-gets-hurt guy, someone who could bolster their pen in the second half of the season.

The fallen

No major prospects had off years for Detroit; the biggest disappointment, in relative terms, was probably 2012 third-rounder Austin Schotts, who had to be demoted from low Class A back to short-season ball, but only turned 20 in September and is too young to give up on already.

Sleeper

Fields has the best chance to jump into the top 100 next year of non-100 guys right now. For a deep sleeper, more for 2015, infielder Javier Betancourt won't turn 19 until May, but shows a good hit tool for his age, especially the ability to square up a lot of pitches that other hitters couldn't, and has shown promise at all three infield skill positions.



Royals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP (10)
2. Raul Mondesi, SS (22)
3. Yordano Ventura, RHP (50)
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP (81)
5. Bubba Starling, OF
6. Hunter Dozier, SS
7. Sean Manaea, LHP
8. Jorge Bonifacio, OF
9. Orlando Calixte, SS
10. Jason Adam, RHP
Kansas City Royals
Org rank: 7

Farm system overview

Two years after everyone who covers the minors was heaping praise on the Royals' system, it's still in pretty good shape, despite promotions, injuries and players who just haven't panned out.

Kyle Zimmer would have been my top overall pitching prospect had he not been shut down with shoulder soreness; he was fine in instructional league and should have no lingering effects for 2014, but I admit to being very wary of anything involving that joint. Hunter Dozier and Sean Manaea formed a strong one-two punch for the Royals' 2013 draft class, and a clever manipulation of their allotted draft budget for the year. Manaea had hip surgery right after signing, and if there's still 96 mph in that arm as there was in the summer of 2012, before the injury, he'll be in the overall top 25 next winter.

Jason Adam hasn't lived up to my initial expectations out of the 2010 draft, but had a three-month stretch last summer where he looked like he was turning the corner, and he'll pitch most of this year at 22 years old; I still think there's a 25 percent chance he'll make that leap and become at least a mid-rotation starter.

Beyond their top 10, the fun doesn't stop. Alexis Rivera (No. 11) may end up at first base, and he's a power before hit guy all the way, but it's potential impact power, and the hit tool isn't about his swing (short and consistent) but about timing and pitch recognition. Cody Reed (No. 12) is a big lefty with velocity up to 95, sitting 93, and the Royals have already worked to clean up his delivery. Catcher Zane Evans (No. 13) was a two-way guy at Georgia Tech and has a backup floor and average regular ceiling, with feel to hit but not great bat speed. Cheslor Cuthbert (No. 14) still has a great swing and will play all of 2014 at age 20, but at some point the production has to match the scouting report. Christian Binford (No.15) is a two-seamer/slider guy with good control and very strong ground ball rates, 64 percent as a 20-year-old starter in low Class A last year.

2014 impact

If healthy, Zimmer should be in their rotation this year; he could be their third-best starter by August. Yordano Ventura should also see big league time, but given his fly ball tendency and smaller frame, I'd break him in as a reliever first, with an eye toward having him start in 2015.

The fallen

Here's where the bad news is. Bubba Starling was miserable before LASIK surgery in late summer, and even after that the reports weren't great on the No. 5 overall pick in the 2011 draft; the common criticism is that his swing is too noisy and/or mechanical, but I think the bottom line is that he cuts through too many pitches in or near the zone, regardless of the cause.

John Lamb hasn't bounced back from Tommy John surgery, and he might be done as a serious prospect because of that. I mentioned Cuthbert above; he did hit a little while repeating high Class A, but was awful in Double-A (.215 average in 264 plate appearances), and will probably repeat that level for all of 2014. Injuries limited 2011 second-rounder Cam Gallagher to just 66 games, after injuries limited him to 36 games the year before, and catchers who get hurt this often are not great bets to stay healthy in the future.

Sleeper

Manaea, easily. He would have gone in the top five picks, maybe first overall, if the 2013 draft had been held on Labor Day of 2012, but the hip injury led to a poor spring, with reduced velocity and command. It's not an ideal delivery, but before the injury he was up to 96 mph consistently with a wipeout breaking ball, and even when I saw him in March of last year, it was clear that hitters didn't see the ball out of his hand at all. I'd also point to Adam and Rivera as players who could make big jumps this year, but their probabilities are lower than Manaea's.



Twins' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Byron Buxton, CF (1)
2. Miguel Sano, 3B (
3. Eddie Rosario, 2B/CF (49)
4. Alex Meyer, RHP (62)
5. Kohl Stewart, RHP (76)
6. Jose Berrios, RHP
7. Max Kepler, OF
8. Josmil Pinto, C
9. Lewis Thorpe, RHP
10. Jorge Polanco, SS/2B
Minnesota Twins
Org rank: 2

Farm system overview

Yes indeed, it's a fun time for Minnesota's system. Lord Byron is going to be a superstar, an elite defender, an 80-grade runner, a hitter for average and good OBPs, and I'd bet a fan favorite, as well, given his energy and his humble personality, too.

Miguel Sano is the best power-hitting prospect in the minors, due in no small part to his ability to hit. And the Twins have pitching -- all you Twins fans who like to complain that the team never has any power arms in its system can shut your traps, because Alex Meyer is sinking it at 96-100 mph, Kohl Stewart hits 97 even with a thrower's delivery, Jose Berrios can sit in the mid-90s, and there's more beyond their top 10, like lefty Mason Melotakis (No. 12 in the system) and right-hander Fernando Romero (No. 14). This ain't a bunch of Kevin Sloweys finessing their way to the big leagues.

Other names in the next tier include shortstop Engelb Vielma (No. 11), shortstop/utilityman Danny Santana (No. 13), third baseman Travis Harrison (No. 15), right-hander Madison Boer (No. 16) and lefty Stephen Gonsalves (No. 17), the last two of whom are indeed more in that command/control mold.

2014 impact

Josmil Pinto is an offensive-minded catcher who's ready with the bat but not yet behind the dish, needing more work on smoothing his release and the finer points like game-calling; he can catch and frame the ball pretty well, and I like his swing and overall approach. Sano should be up by the end of the year, although Twins fans will see him in July at the Futures Game, perhaps along with Buxton and the German-born Max Kepler, who's taking a more elliptical path to the majors than expected.

The fallen

Right-hander Trevor May had a mediocre year, but dropped from the Twins' top 10 more because he was pushed out by better guys. Eddie Rosario's stock hasn't fallen, but it's worth mentioning that the dodo got himself suspended for 50 games after a second violation of the minor league drug prevention program -- stupid because he needs those at-bats and reps in the field. The Twins graduated three of their top five prospects from last year -- Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia -- and still managed to land the No. 2 spot on my rankings. It's a great system.

Sleeper

Australian-born Lewis Thorpe might be the guy to break the underwhelming recent history of arms from Down Under, as he's a "Guy," or whatever the equivalent to that is in Sydney. Thorpe's fastball will touch the mid-90s, with an above-average curveball he needs to command better, an average change trending toward plus and a good delivery that gets him on top of the ball for downhill plane.

He's a mature kid for his age, turning 18 just before last Thanksgiving, and has a thick frame that should be good for mid-rotation workloads. He's someone to root for, as success for him in the majors would help grow the game in Australia in the future.

Top 10 prospects (AL West).

Spoiler

Astros' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Carlos Correa, SS (4)
2. Mark Appel, RHP (11)
3. George Springer, CF (19)
4. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP (70)
5. J. Singleton, 1B (7
6. D. DeShields Jr. (80)
7. V. Velazquez (82)
8. Lance McCullers Jr., RHP
9. Rio Ruiz, 3B
10. Michael Feliz, RHP
Houston Astros
Org rank: 1


Farm system overview

The best farm system in baseball, just edging out the MinnesotaTwins, has ceiling and depth, with three potential All-Stars up top and a slew of guys who grade out from above-average regulars down to quality role players well into the back of the team's top 20.

Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, and George Springer are all exceptional talents, with Springer in the top five overall if we're just grading out tools. The Astros had little pitching depth in the system when GM Jeff Luhnow took over, but he has quickly stocked up on arms to supplement Mike Foltynewicz and Vincent Velazquez, the two starter prospects who were already in the cupboard when the new front office started work.

Lance McCullers Jr. is still a prospect on the starter/reliever fence, but that floor, a closer who can hit 100 mph with sink, is fairly high. The Astros tweaked Rio Ruiz's front leg landing midyear, getting him to plant more firmly, and he hit .297/.354/.521 after the Midwest League's All-Star Break with just a 17 percent strikeout rate at age 19. Michael Feliz was originally signed by Oakland, but the deal was voided when he failed a drug test, and the Astros got him for less than half of the original bonus amount. He's a 6-foot-4, 220-pound monster, throwing up to 98 mph, with control over command, more feel for the change than for a breaking ball and has mid-rotation upside down the road.

Beyond their top 10, it's still exciting. Domingo Santana (No.11) would make every other org's top 10 as a huge, physical right fielder with big-time power and a plus arm, though he has a little too much swing and miss in his game. Teoscar Hernandez (No.12) has great bat speed and above-average power and speed potential, possibly moving from center to right field. Andrew Thurman (No.13), their second pick in 2013, has four pitches with command and feel. Asher Wojcieshowski (No.14) has been 91-94 with three average-ish pitches and could be a fourth/fifth starter or solid eighth-inning guy. And Nolan Fontana (No.15) drew 102 walks in hitter-friendly high-A Lancaster while playing average or fringe-average defense at short.

Houston also has a slew of power arms in short-season ball: Jandel Gustave is up to 101 mph but without a decent breaking ball right now. Lefty Reymin Guduan has hit 100 with a plus slider, although his delivery may have too much effort for him to start. Lefty Chris Lee was better, finally, in his third go-round in the rookie-level Appy League, hitting 95 mph and sitting 92 with a slider and curveball, throwing more strikes as the Astros have worked to sync up his delivery. And, because the Astros weren't loaded enough, they took ex-prospect Ravel Santana from the Yankees in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft (meaning they don't have to give him back); Santana has missed a ton of time with ankle and arm injuries, but still has enough tools to end up a big leaguer if he can stay on the field.

2014 impact

Springer and Jonathan Singleton should be up by mid-year at worst, with Springer ahead of Singleton developmentally but with less urgency at the position with Dexter Fowler on board. The Astros need pitching but seem unlikely to rush any elite prospects, so I expect Appel to arrive at his own pace, maybe for September roster expansion, with Wojcieshowski more likely to get the call early in the season if they need someone. Right-hander Nick Tropeano has had success as a starter through Triple-A and could come up in that role, but I think in the long run he's a reliever, as he's mostly fastball-changeup without an average third pitch.

The fallen

Nobody imploded last year. Singleton had the most disappointing year, missing 50 games after a positive test for marijuana in 2012, then not performing after he returned. Their 2012 third-round pick, Brady Rogers, had a rough first full year for Houston, but he was in Lancaster the whole time, and that's a brutal environment for a pitcher who's more about command than stuff.

Sleeper

Of all their non-top 100 guys, Feliz is the most likely to jump up into next year's top 50, but it would take a big advance in at least one of his off-speed pitches. The next most likely is Domingo Santana, as Oklahoma City will give us a better read on where his plate discipline lies than Corpus Christi did.



Angels' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kaleb Cowart, 3B
2. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP
3. Taylor Lindsey, 2B
4. Mark Sappington, RHP
5. Jose Rondon, SS
6. Hunter Green, LHP
7. C.J. Cron, 1B
8. Mike Morin, RHP
9. R.J. Alvarez, RHP
10. Alex Yarbrough
Los Angeles Angels
Org rank: 29


Farm system overview

It's a bad system, one of only two that didn't place a single player on the top 100, although there are a few glimmers of hope in some of the big three teenage prospects: Ricardo Sanchez, Jose Rondon, and Hunter Green.

Kaleb Cowart was on the top 100 last year, but he had a miserable 2013 at the plate, working through mechanical problems with his left-handed swing that he never got through. On the bright side, he still plays plus-plus defense at third with great arm strength. Taylor Lindsey is a natural hitter with a good swing, but he's a fringy defender at second, and he's barely using his lower half right now at the plate. C.J. Cron has now drawn 43 unintentional walks in 1,274 pro plate appearances and while he has 30-homer power, he's not going to get to it with his lack of plate discipline.

On the positive side, Rondon looks like he'll stay at shortstop, and has great hand-eye coordination at the plate, posting great numbers in rookie-level Orem last summer after breaking his hamate bone in spring training. Mark Sappington is probably a reliever, as his delivery isn't ideal for starting (wraps in back, upright at release), but he does have the size and stamina to do so if he can loosen up his delivery and throw more strikes. Mike Morin is a fastball/changeup guy with command, and the changeup, which he can cut to make it tail in either direction, is a swing-and-miss pitch for him. There's a slight upward trend here now that they've bottomed out.

2014 impact

Alvarez and Morin both should see major league time in the Angels' pen this year. Nick Maronde is still a rookie and may join them, but he has to throw more strikes, which he didn't do in the majors or in Double-A last year. Cam Bedrosian is a reliever now and should start in high-A or Double-A, which would give him an outside chance to see the majors later this summer.

The fallen

Cowart's 2013 was a huge disappointment, even considering his age and experience level. He, Cron and Maronde all took big hits to their status last year.

Sleeper

Sanchez was only in the upper 80s last spring as an amateur, but the Angels may have found a bargain with the Venezuelan left-hander, who's now 87-92 with feel for a curveball and changeup, as well as good aptitude on the mound. Both he and Green, the team's first overall pick (second round) in 2012, are high-upside teenage arms who have years of development ahead of them and have to stay healthy, but could be the first major starters the Angels have developed since Jered Weaver.



Athletics' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Addison Russell, SS (3)
2. Billy McKinney, OF
3. Daniel Robertson, SS
4. Chris Kohler, LHP
5. Raul Alcantara, RHP
6. Bobby Wahl, RHP
7. Billy Burns, CF
8. Matt Olson, 1B
9. Dylan Covey, RHP
10. Max Muncy, 1B
Oakland Athletics
Org rank: 26


Farm system overview

The A's promoted or traded away a ton of talent over the past two years, with nine of their top 10 from 2012 either on the current A's big league roster or in another organization. That leaves just one top-100 prospect in the system, but if you're going to have just one, Russell is a good choice, a budding superstar who'll provide good defense at short, hit for average and get on base, with at least average power.

Billy McKinney, their first-rounder from 2013, has a great left-handed swing and good feel to hit, showing surprising instincts in center after signing. Before the draft, everyone conceded he'd end up in left field, but now that's at least in doubt. Raul Alcantara returns to the A's top 10 -- he was No. 8 on that 2012 list -- touching 95 last year with an above-average changeup and slurvy slider. But, most importantly, he throws strikes and misses far more bats. He'll reach Double-A this year at age 21.

Billy Burns came over from Washington in exchange for Jerry Blevins in December. He's an 80-grade runner, an above-average defender in center, and controls the zone well, but has no power and has to prove hard throwers won't just light him up and blow him out like a candle. Michael Ynoa is No.11, still showing the pretty delivery that earned him a record bonus many years ago, with good frame (6-foot-7), and a fastball up to 95 mph. But he's barely beginning to learn how to pitch, and since he's already on the 40-man roster the clock has started to tick.

2014 impact

None.

The fallen

Miles Head hurt a wrist after one swing in the 2012 Arizona Fall League, showed up out of shape to camp in 2013, then had a sore shoulder and had to be shut down, hitting just .196/.264/.264 in 40 games in Double-A.

Sleeper

Bobby Wahl has had a history of minor injuries that pushed him out of the first round this past spring coming out of Ole Miss, with a broad consensus he'd end up in a relief role. The A's took him in the fifth round and will try him as a starter. He showed three above-average pitches in instructional league, and his command and control were much better there and in brief outings over the summer.



Mariners' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Taijuan Walker, RHP (16)
2. D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B
3. Austin Wilson, OF
4. James Paxton, LHP
5. Tyler Pike, LHP
6. Victor Sanchez, RHP
7. Edwin Diaz, RHP
8. Luiz Gohara, LHP
9. Tyler Marlette, C
10. Gabriel Guerrero, OF
Seattle Mariners
Org rank: 21

Farm system overview

The Mariners graduated three big league regulars to the majors last year -- Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, and Nick Franklin -- plus Brandon Maurer and Carter Capps, all of whom will put a dent in any farm system's ranking.

They do still have two potential starters in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, although the latter's command still comes and goes too often for me to consider him a top-100 prospect or more than a likely fourth starter. I liked their two picks on day one of the 2013 draft, with D.J. Peterson more of a performance guy and Austin Wilson the athlete you dream on but who hasn't posted the right kind of results yet; both also look like everyday guys down the road.

The four young arms I have next in their system are all candidates to make moves forward in 2014, assuming the hitter-friendly Cal League doesn't swallow Tyler Pike or Victor Sanchez alive. Luiz Gohara has the biggest upside but won't turn 18 until the end of July and probably spends the summer in short-season ball building up arm strength.

Gabriel Guerrero is Vlad's nephew, a long-levered guy who can run and throw, showing raw power in BP but not yet in games. He has a strong work ethic, but is probably two years away from entering discussions for the top 100. Tyler Marlette has an everyday upside, but is probably a quality backup, which is still a valuable asset as so many major league teams scramble to find two guys to split the 162 starts behind the plate each year. Not on the list: Chris Taylor (No.11), a workmanlike shortstop who will play in the big leagues as at least a good utility infielder; and right-hander Dominic Leone (No.12), their 16th-round pick in 2012, whose fastball command came on in 2013 and could propel him to the majors now that Capps has been traded.

2014 impact

Walker and Paxton probably make 50-odd starts between them this year, with Walker offering more chance of above-average performance if he can loosen up his delivery the way it used to be. Leone and Carson Smith, the latter a right-handed specialist due to a very low arm slot, should surface in the Mariners' pen this year.

The fallen

Danny Hultzen, third in the system and No. 66 overall going into 2013, suffered a major shoulder injury and probably won't pitch again until 2015. His future is very much in doubt until we see what's left of his stuff.

Sleeper

I rated Wilson as a first-round talent out of high school in 2010 and again out of Stanford in 2013. He's a superb athlete with a big frame, a right fielder in pro ball who can throw and run a little. He has excellent makeup that will serve him well as the Mariners try to get him away from the "Stanford swing."



Rangers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Jorge Alfaro, C (44)
2. Rougned Odor, 2B (64)
3. Alex Gonzalez, RHP
4. Lewis Brinson, CF
5. Joey Gallo, 3B
6. Chris Bostick, 2B
7. Michael Choice, OF
8. Nick Williams, OF
9. Nomar Mazara, OF
10. Luis Sardinas, SS
Texas Rangers
Org rank: 13


Farm system overview

The Rangers' system is good despite having onlytwo prospects who earned serious top-100 consideration. It's full of potential ceiling, with a lot of guys who could be All-Stars but who also have substantial chances to flame out in Double-A.

Jorge Alfaro needs to tighten up his plate discipline (that's fancy talk for "mix in a walk every now and then, big guy") and increase his focus on defense, but could be among the best catchers in the game with his 80 arm/80 power potential. Rougned Odor is at the opposite end of the spectrum, a tireless worker and competitor with a great feel to hit already at age 19. Alex "Chi-Chi" Gonzalez is a safe bet to be in the back of the rotation in a year or so, but the cutter is a possible out-pitch for him and he has a shot to be more of a solid No. 3.

Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, Nomar Mazara, Luis Sardinas, Travis Demeritte (No.11 in the system), Jairo Beras (No.14) and Ronald Guzman (No.15) are all high-ceiling guys who still have a ways to go with at least one major aspect of their games. Gallo and Brinson struck out at unfathomable rates in low-A, but they also both have plus-plus raw power, Gallo from strength and Brinson from quick wrists and bat speed. Gallo is more polished at the plate, but Brinson has the added value of his defense in center. Nick Williams made big strides last year, calming down at the plate, taking better at-bats, using the whole field instead of trying to jerk everything down the right field line, and it emerged that he's got pretty good bat-to-ball ability underneath all the showcase showmanship.

Others of note in the system include right-hander Luke Jackson (No.12), who has a big arm and shows three pitches but has a reliever's delivery and command; right-hander David Ledbetter (No.13), their third-rounder from 2013, 89-93 with a plus curveball but in need of a third pitch; Victor Payano (No.16), a 6-foot-6 lefty whose fastball is 90-94 mph with a good change and decent spin on the curveball, but who has to stay healthy; and right-hander Alec Asher, a junior college product who cleaned up his body and found some more fastball there, now 90-95 mph with a good 200-inning frame.

2014 impact

Michael Choice has the same issue as Gallo, swinging and missing at a lot of stuff in the zone that he should square up, which means he doesn't always get to his plus raw power. I doubt the Rangers want to platoon their big splashy free-agent signing, Shin-Soo Choo, but Choice would be a good caddy and can back up the other two spots as well.

The fallen

Cody Buckel was on the top 100 last year, No. 90 overall, and third in the Rangers' system. But he developed "the yips," also known as "the Thing" or "Steve Blass disease," the same ailment that ended Rick Ankiel's career as a pitcher, and at this point I wouldn't rank Buckel anywhere.

Guzman's bat speed has never measured up well for me, at least not compared to the other top bats in the system. But his situation was made worse by a broken hand he suffered when hit by a pitch in late July that cost him the last 30 or so games of the season. He's only 19, but as a first base-only prospect he has to hit and hit for power, and to get there, he has to play.

Sleeper

Payano is the non-top-10 guy with the best chance to jump into the global top 100 next year. Looking another year down the line, the Rangers, always active in the July 2 market for international free agents, signed shortstop Yeyson Yrizarri for $1.35 million last summer, and he impressed the club in instructional league with his speed, arm, and overall feel for the game at age 16.

 

[threeoneoh]

Well, my prayers have been answered.
LA gets another jersey

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

It took me a while to figure out the difference of that road jersey

 

[threeoneoh]

Come on man
I would have hoped for a royal blue one like the KC Royals have, but this will do

 

[dland24]

I have always been of the opinion that road jerseys need to say the city where the team is from and home jerseys need to say the team name.  Which is why I have such a huge problem with my Warriors jerseys saying both....but thats a topic for a different thread and time. 

 

[madj55]

New addition to the bobblehead collection

The Nats released their promo schedule today, a lot of bobblehead nights and a Jayson Werth garden gnome but nothing too exciting besides that.

Are any of your teams scheduling any good giveaways this year?

 

[mr marcus]

Hope there's a giveaway when I go see them play the rangers in May

 

[jjs07]

Bryce Harper is absolutely YOKED. Dude looks like he's put on 20lbs since the season ended. He's got to be in that 240 range right now.

 

[proshares]

Top 10 prospects (NL Central).

Spoiler

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST


Cubs' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Javier Baez, SS (7)
2. Kris Bryant, 3B (15)
3. Jorge Soler, OF (26)
4. Albert Almora, CF (2
5. C.J. Edwards, RHP (67)
6. A. Alcantara, 2B (71)
7. Pierce Johnson, RHP
8. Jaimer Candelario, 3B
9. corey Black, RHP
10. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Chicago Cubs
Org rank: 4

Farm system overview

The Cubs' collection of offensive prospects is extremely impressive, with three high-impact bats at the top of the system, followed by two guys who can contribute on both sides of the ball.

Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Jorge Soler all look like stars; Baez has the explosive bat speed to be a guy who hits for average and power, and he can play somewhere in the middle infield, even if the Cubs don't have room for him there. Soler has the biggest risk, although some of that is because he missed so much of 2013 after breaking his leg; I think everyone, the Cubs included, would feel more confident if he had played a full summer and continued to show gradual improvement.

They're still light on arms; C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson are the only pitchers in the system I'd project as more than fifth starters, and neither looks like a potential ace or strong No. 2. That said, they did load up on pitching in the 2013 draft, and lefty Rob Zastryzny (No. 11 in the system) could grow into a third or fourth starter role, while right-handers Scott Frazier (No. 13), Tyler Skulina (No. 14), and Trey Masek are all current starters who could go either way but are now more likely to head for the pen.

Corey Black is an interesting case, built like a reliever, aggressive like one as well, but he'll at least show four pitches, two of them plus, and I would at least let him start a little longer before conceding the point. Eloy Jimenez (No.12), the 17-year-old jewel of the July 2 international signing class from last year, is all fantasy at this point, a kid with a huge, projectable frame as well as the swing to eventually have 30-35 homer power.

2014 impact

Arismendy Alcantara probably starts the year in Triple-A, but I think he's an upgrade over Darwin Barney right now, an above-average defender at second who can actually hit. Baez should make his major league debut this summer, although the position is up in the air and depends on Alcantara's arrival and whether Starlin Castro gets his head on straight.

The fallen

Mike Olt's vision problems have put his career on hold, in practical terms; if you can't see, you can't hit or field, and until he and his doctors find a solution, he won't be able to produce on the field. Arodyz Vizcaino missed his second straight year due to arm problems, and Juan Carlos Paniagua fell apart once he got past visa problems and managed to take the mound, trying too hard to guide the ball for strikes instead of just airing it out.

Sleeper

Jimenez is more likely to show up on the 2016 top 100 than the 2015 one; for next year's list, we're more likely to see Jaimer Candelario, who has been on the fringes of my top 100 for two years now. He's a mediocre defender at third, but his bat has a chance to be special -- he has a fluid swing, stays inside the ball well, and has shown doubles power to both gaps already at age 19.



Reds' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Robert Stephenson, RHP (29)
2. Billy Hamilton, CF (52)
3. Phil Ervin, OF
4. Jesser Winker, OF
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Michael Lorenzen, RHP
7. Nick Travieso, RHP
8. Daniel Corcino, RHP
9. Chad Rogers, LHP
10. Jackson Stephens, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Org rank: 16

Farm system overview

The Reds have drafted well the past few years, buttressing a system depleted by trades, promotions and fewer prospects coming from their international scouting arm. Robert Stephenson and Billy Hamilton both have chances to become impact players, Stephenson the more likely of the two as Hamilton is going to have to show he can hit Triple-A pitching after a rough first year at the level.

Phil Ervin and Jesse Winker look like solid everyday regulars in the outfield, Ervin more if he stays in center field (which I'd bet against right now), while Yorman Rodriguez, signed for $2.5 million way back in 2008, has the highest ceiling of any position player in the system right now, and made big strides in his plate discipline in 2013.

The rest of their top 10 includes starters who have to add or change something significant to remain in that role, led by former college outfielder/closer Michael Lorenzen, who has hit 99 mph in relief but whom the Reds are trying to convert to the rotation. Chad Rogers has the best chance to stay in the rotation, a possible workhorse back-end starter with three pitches, and he also survived a shark bite in 2010, which has nothing to do with baseball, but, whoa, shark attack.

Other players of note in the system include Ben Lively (No.11), a right-hander with a fringe-average fastball but tremendous deception that helps it play up the way Tony Cingrani's fastball has; Jon Moscot (No.12), a potential back-end starter who's 90-95 with a four-pitch mix but has nothing plus; and Amir Garrett (No.13), who really needs to stop wasting his time playing basketball because it's hurting his development as a left-handed reliever.

2014 impact

Hamilton is the Reds' Opening Day center fielder as the roster stands; he's ready defensively, and his legs can make an impact, but I'm not alone in worrying about his ability to fight off hard stuff in on his hands, which is how pitchers are going to attack him at first. I wouldn't be shocked to see Rogers make the Reds' pen early this season, as he finished in Triple-A and he's hit 92-95 mph in short stints.

The fallen

Daniel Corcino's year was a huge letdown, the latest Reds prospect to struggle in Triple-A, in this case because he was trying to pitch up in the zone at 92-94 mph and getting punished for it. He did throw better in 10 relief innings in winter ball, and it's possible he's better off as a power reliever rather than a starter who's too line-drive and homer-prone. Ismael Guillon shows flashes of mid-rotation potential, but you can't walk 95 in 121 innings (and that's after walking just six in his last four starts) and expect us not to notice it.

Sleeper

Jackson Stephens is a classic find from scouting director Chris Buckley, a high school quarterback from Alabama who's blessed with a great arm, sitting 94-98, but still learning the art of pitching, like changing speeds and working with his secondary stuff.



Brewers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Tyrone Taylor, CF
2. Devin Williams, RHP
3. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B
4. Michael Reed, OF
5. John Hellweg, RHP
6. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
7. Mitch Haniger, OF
8. Orlando Arcia, SS
9. Victor Roache, OF
10. Hunter Morris, 1B
Milwaukee Brewers
Org rank: 30


Farm system overview

The majors' weakest farm system didn't place anyone on the global top 100, and didn't have anyone particularly close. Tyrone Taylor, Nick Delmonico, and Michael Reed are solid prospects who project as average regulars if everything clicks, but don't have high ceilings.

Taylor has the broadest base of skills, a former wide receiver whose approach has been much better than expected from a two-sport guy, and he projects to stay in center. Reed can't stay in center, so he'll have to develop more power to play every day. Delmonico also needs to stay healthy for a full season, as he has missed more than 100 games over the past two years.

Devin Williams has the highest upside in the system, with a loose, easy delivery and a fastball up to 95, but he needs work on his command and secondary pitches. John Hellweg and Jimmy Nelson are future relievers. Mitch Haniger looks more like a good fourth outfielder than a regular. Victor Roache had a miserable full-season debut, hitting .248/.322/.440 at age 21 in low-A with a 26 percent strikeout rate. Orlando Arcia did nothing with the bat in 2013, but he was one of the youngest position players in any full-season league, and had missed all of 2012 due to injury. He has good instincts in the field and his ability to square the ball up enough to put it in play is good for his age and lack of experience.

David Denson (No.11) is an all-or-nothing guy, a 6-foot-4, 245-pound first baseman with big raw power, signed for $100,000 in the 15th round, whose value is all in his bat and who'll have to work to maintain his conditioning. Other names of note are hard-throwing reliever David Goforth; righty Ariel Pena, who has starter stuff and reliever command; and righty Jorge Lopez, still projectable with a good curveball, whose 5.23 ERA in 2013 was skewed by an April outing in which he allowed 8 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.

2014 impact

Hellweg and Nelson could pitch for the major league squad this year, more likely in the bullpen though perhaps as spot starters. Hunter Morris is one of a few internal options at first base but doesn't project to hit or get on base enough to be an average regular there.

The fallen

Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley, the Brewers' two first-round picks in 2011, both had awful seasons and neither is even a potential fifth starter in the majors right now. Bradley hurt his shoulder, ending his season, the second year in a row he has been shut down with arm woes, and his stuff has never been where it was before he was drafted. Jungmann stayed healthy but walked almost as many as he struck out and has been reduced to throwing almost only fastballs.

One of their two first-rounders from 2013, catcher Clint Coulter, had to be demoted to short-season ball. In fact, the last successful first-round pick for Milwaukee was Brett Lawrie in 2008.

Sleeper

Williams has the best chance to make a big leap in 2014. Pre-draft, I compared him to Taijuan Walker at the same age. Walker had a better curveball, but the two otherwise have similarly easy velocity and loose, fluid arms.



Pirates' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Gregor Polanco, OF (13)
2. Tyler Glasnow, RHP (20)
3. Jameson Taillon, RHP (27)
4. Austin Meadows, CF (35)
5. Nick Kingham, RHP (73)
6. Alen Hanson, SS (74)
7. Josh Bell, OF (97)
8. Reese McGuire, C
9. Harold Ramirez, OF
10. Luis Heredia, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Org rank: 3


Farm system overview

The system has just started to bear fruit at the major league level, but there's more coming, with a near-future superstar in the outfield in Gregory Polanco and perhaps another further down the line in Austin Meadows, and three pitchers who project as top-three starters in a major league rotation in Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham.

Beyond the guys who made the top 100, Reese McGuire has a very high floor as a premium defender behind the plate, with a tremendous arm and improving receiving skills. Luis Heredia is a tough one to get a feel for because he has pitched so little since signing and hasn't had much success, but he's still just 19 years old. The delivery and body aren't great, while the stuff frequently is. For comparison's sake, if he were just about to graduate from high school in Florida or California, he'd be a late first-rounder this June.

Others of note include Clayton Holmes (No.11 in the system), a big right-hander who has the stuff and the delivery to be a solid mid-rotation starter, but not the results because he doesn't pitch with the confidence or aggressiveness he should have; JaCoby Jones (No.12), a superb athlete who struggled with his swing the last two years at LSU but will play in the middle of the diamond; Jaff Decker (No.13), an on-base machine just acquired in trade from the Padres, whose main problem has been staying healthy; and Wyatt Mathisen (No.14), a catcher who missed much of last season with a partially torn labrum, but who should be back at full strength this March.

The Pirates will need to continue to produce impact players they can control for six years at sub-market prices, because of the major league team's relatively low revenue base, but this system is primed to do exactly that, with bats and pitchers coming, just a little light in the infield but strong everywhere else.

2014 impact

I expect Taillon to come up at some point in the first half of the season, perhaps once the Bucs feel enough time has passed to keep him from reaching super-two status after 2016, and Kingham isn't that far behind -- he might be closer in terms of feel and command. Decker will have a chance to win the right-field job and would be a good platoon right fielder with his OBP skills and moderate power.

The fallen

The closest you can come to a disappointment among major prospects in this system would be outfielder Barrett Barnes, their supplemental first-round pick in 2012. Ranked seventh in their system last year, Barnes hit just .268/.338/.399 in low-A as a 21-year-old major-college product, in a season limited to 46 games by injuries. He would have been bumped from their top 10 by other prospects even with a full season of better performance, though.

Sleeper

Born in Colombia, Harold Ramirez played the whole summer at age 18, hitting .285/.354/.409 in the New York-Penn League against a lot of older pitchers, showing tremendous feel for the barrel and solid plate discipline for his age and inexperience. He's a slightly above-average runner and there's a good chance he moves out of center, but he looks like a pure hitter who'll at least hit for high averages with a ton of extra-base hits, which would still profile in an outfield corner.



Cardinals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Oscar Taveras, OF (5)
2. Stephen Piscotty, OF (57)
3. Kolten Wong, 2B (91)
4. Rob Kaminsky, LHP (100)
5. Tim ****ey, LHP
6. Marco Gonzales, LHP
7. Carson Kelly, C/3B
8. Alex Reyes, RHP
9. James Ramsey, OF
10. Chris Rivera, SS/2B
St. Louis Cardinals
Org rank: 12


Farm system overview

The Cardinals continue to build while contending at the major league level, with one of the game's best systems even after promoting top prospects such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez, and even surprising farm system products such as Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter.

Oscar Taveras is the one likely star in the system at this point, held back by an ankle injury that limited him to 46 games in Triple-A last year. Stephen Piscotty and Kolten Wong are solid everyday player prospects, while Carson Kelly tried catching in instructional league and, by all accounts, took to it extremely well, not least because he wanted to do it. James Ramsey may top out as a quality platoon outfielder, but did show more pop in the Arizona Fall League than I'd previously seen from him.

The greatest strength here is the depth of the system -- the Cardinals have continued to restock the major league club with cheap talent that is productive right out of the gate, and I see that continuing both on the pitching side and with their bench, including part-time/platoon candidates. Tim ****ey will pitch in the majors this year, a strike-throwing lefty starter with three average to slightly above-average pitches, including a fastball that will peak at 93-94. Marco Gonzalez isn't far behind, with a fringy fastball but out-pitch changeup and above-average to plus curveball, and no real projection. He's very athletic but isn't going to get much stronger or add velocity.

Arms beyond their top 10 include Sam Tuivailala (No.11 in the system), a converted infielder who is a legit 98-99 in relief and struck out nearly a third of the guys he faced last year; Cory Jones (No.14), a live-armed starter with control over command but a long history of injury; and Seth Blair (No.15), a two-pitch right-hander who lacks the command to start but could move quickly if the Cards put him in the pen.

Other bats of note include center fielder Charlie Tilson (No.12), who missed all of 2012 due to injury but had a solid return year with a good approach but needs to show more pop; left fielder Randal Grichuk (No.13), acquired in the Peter Bourjos/David Freese trade, with plus pull power and a deadly fear of breaking pitches; and outfielder Tommy Pham, a very toolsy, aggressive 25-year-old who has reached Triple-A but can't stay healthy for a full season.

2014 impact

Wong is the everyday second baseman and could be a league-average player this year. Taveras should be up at some point to take over right field, but probably has to show that his ankle is 100 percent and to perform well at Triple-A before that will happen. ****ey and Tyler Lyons are both potential call-ups when the Cards need a spot starter.

The fallen

Tyrell Jenkins was in their top 10 the past two years but shoulder problems have limited him to 200 pro innings in three-and-a-half seasons since signing, with surgery to repair the latissimus muscle in his right shoulder ending his 2013 season and possibly keeping him out into the start of 2014.

Sleeper

Alex Reyes, 19, was born in New Jersey but signed as an international free agent in the Dominican Republic, avoiding the draft entirely due to his Dominican ancestry. His stuff is electric, in the Trevor Rosenthal/Carlos Martinez mold, with a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a hammer breaking ball. Like many teenage arms, he needs to develop a changeup and his command is still below-average, so right now it's a reliever profile but with plenty of time for him to make himself a starter if he puts in the work.

Top 10 prospects (NL East).

Spoiler

AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST
Braves' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Sims, RHP (40)
2. C. Bethancourt, C (90)
3. Jose Peraza, SS (99)
4. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP
5. Wes Parsons, RHP
6. Jason Hursh, RHP
7. Victor Caratini, C/3B
8. J.R. Graham, RHP
9. Tommy La Stella, 2B
10. Ian Thomas, LHP

Atlanta Braves
Org rank: 22

Farm system overview

Atlanta's system remains a real weakness, mostly because the club has used so much of what was on the farm a few years ago to bolster the major league roster (which, as a result, is very young as well as talented), and in part because recent drafts have been less productive.

Lucas Sims, Atlanta's 2012 first-rounder, isn't in that category, as his stuff ticked up across the board in a huge debut season that jumped him into the overall top 50. The Braves' 2013 draft was less promising, as they took likely reliever Jason Hursh in the first round, but second-rounder Victor Caratini could make a big jump if the team's effort to convert him to catching pays off. Two of the Braves' top 10 picks were signed as undrafted (passed over) free agents, Wes Parsons and Ian Thomas, and their Latin program is responsible for three of their top four guys.

2014 impact

Christian Bethancourt's glove and arm are more than ready for the majors; it's about his approach at the plate now, and just tightening up the finer points of his defense. Tommy La Stella could see a lot of time at second base; he's a fringe regular but may be a better option than Dan Uggla at this point.

The fallen

J.R. Graham, a top-100 prospect a year ago, blew out his shoulder and made just eight starts on the year. He was already a risk to have to go to the pen due to his lack of size -- he's listed at 5-foot-10 -- and that just became much more likely, assuming his stuff comes most of the way back after the decision to rehab his injury rather than undergo major surgery.

Sleeper

Parsons is a projectable right-hander, 6-foot-5, 190 pounds, with good sink on an average fastball, an above-average slider and plus control, with three walks in his past 44 innings this year in low-A.


Marlins' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Andrew Heaney, LHP (34)
2. Colin Moran, 3B (55)
3. Jake Marisnick, CF (84)
4. Justin Nicolino, LHP (93)
5. Trevor Williams, RHP
6. Anthony DeScalfani,RHP
7. Brian Flynn, LHP
8. Jose Urena, RHP
9. J.T. Realmuto, C
10. Avery Romero, 2B
Miami Marlins
Org rank: 19

Farm system overview

It was something of a flat year within the Marlins' system, as no one but Andrew Heaney took a big step forward, but several guys made modest progress, while the team added three pretty strong talents in the draft in Colin Moran, Trevor Williams and reliever Colby Suggs, who could move very quickly through the system now that the groin strain that wrecked his spring at Arkansas is fully behind him.

The system isn't deep at all, although some of that is the result of the Marlins' aggressiveness in bringing young players with ability to the majors as soon as they might be ready, which led to five of Miami's top 10 prospects from last year losing their eligibility, including Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez.

2014 impact

Jake Marisnick will lose eligibility early this season, and Brian Flynn would be my pick right now for the Marlins' fifth starter spot over guys like Tom Koehler and Brad Hand. I wouldn't be shocked to see Anthony Desclafani surface in the second half; he has the velocity and control to start, but isn't very physical and may not have the stamina for 190-200 innings a year. He'd be very effective out of the pen if that's his future role.

The fallen

Austin Brice was one of two sleepers I named last year, along with Jose Urena, but Brice's velocity went backward this year and he walked nearly a man an inning; he's been passed by several better arms in the meantime. Kolby Copeland, Miami's third-round pick a year ago, refused to take a drug test and is now effectively out of baseball, although he's still under the Marlins' control if he wants to return.

Sleeper

Jarlin Garcia is a strike-throwing right-hander, 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, with a three-pitch mix already and some room to add velocity. He's No. 11 in the system, just ahead of Domingo German, another right-hander who doesn't have the third pitch but has an above-average curveball and good angle on his fastball.


Mets' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. N. Syndergaard, RHP (24)
2. Travis d'Arnaud, C (36)
3. Dominic Smith, 1B (37)
4. Rafael Montero, RHP (60)
5. Brandon Nimmo, OF (92)
6. Kevin Plawecki, C
7. Dilson Herrera, 2B
8. Wilmer Flores, IF
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Org rank: 6

Farm system overview

This system has come a very long way in a short amount of time, thanks to solid drafts under scouting director Tommy Tanous and his predecessor Chad MacDonald, and to several very productive trades that brought in three of the Mets' top seven prospects.

Top prospect Noah Syndergaard saw his breaking ball improve from below-average last year to solid-average or better by summer's end; Travis d'Arnaud took time off from the disabled list to make his major league debut; Cesar Puello finally put some production behind his tools before serving a suspension for his involvement in Biogenesis.

The Mets' next few prospects after this top 10 -- Gavin Cecchini (No. 11), Gabriel Ynoa (No. 12), Jacob deGrom (No. 13), Michael Fulmer (No. 14) and Domingo Tapia (No. 15), to give you an idea -- are all pretty tightly bunched together, with a lot of back-end starters and potential fringe-to-average regulars in the group.

2014 impact

Both Rafael Montero and Syndergaard will likely see significant time in the majors, with Montero getting the call first because he's further along, and managing his service time is less important than managing Syndergaard's. Wilmer Flores could stick as a backup at third, second and even left field or first base, if the Mets don't mind him getting somewhat irregular at-bats. Puello is a dark horse to surface later in the year, especially if Curtis Granderson or Chris Young gets hurt (again).

The fallen

Nobody really crashed and burned this year in the Mets' system; the worst drop might be Cecchini, their first-rounder in 2012 and No. 5 prospect last year, now No. 11 and projected by many scouts as a fringe regular or utility guy because his bat looked light in Brooklyn last year.

Sleeper

I could pick any of a number of those control-fiend arms, but shortstop Amed Rosario is the most exciting prospect of the Mets' second tier (after their top 10 guys). He is a tool shed at shortstop, with a 70-grade arm and 60 raw power that's going to become more in time, and he's already showing a good feel for the zone at his age, improving his recognition of breaking stuff last summer and also showing good power out to right-center.

A native of the Dominican Republic, Rosario signed for $1.75 million in 2012 and skipped the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League entirely, instead playing as the Appalachian League's youngest position player. He's a ways off, maybe more of a top-50 candidate for 2016, but is the system's most exciting prospect to dream on.


Phillies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. J.P. Crawford, SS (46)
2. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B (63)
3. Jesse Biddle, LHP (77)
4. Kelly Dugan, RF
5. Severino Gonzalez, RHP
6. Cord Sandberg, OF
7. Roman Quinn, SS
8. Andrew Knapp, C
9. Carlos Tocci, CF
10. Deivi Grullon, C
Philadelphia Phillies
Org rank: 14

Farm system overview

The Phillies always go for ceiling in the draft and in international scouting, and there's a lot of potential impact here, especially at the lower levels, led by their first-round pick J.P. Crawford, a true shortstop with All-Star upside due to his potential with the bat.

Severino Gonzalez is their best right-handed arm, not a guy who'll ever challenge for the top 50 or 75 spots on the Top 100, but a command guy with two solid-average pitches now in a fastball and cutter and a chance for four average offerings with more development time. Kelly Dugan has a chance to be a solid-average regular if he can tighten up his plate discipline, which fell apart after a midseason promotion to Double-A.

Not listed in the top 10: Aaron Altherr (No. 11), a 6-foot-5 outfielder who's always been power-before-hit but showed a better approach this year and more willingness to go the other way; and Jake Sweaney (No. 12), a two-sport guy in high school who's raw but has the athleticism and arm strength to be an impact bat at catcher.

It's been a bit of a rough offseason for the Phillies' farm, though, as Andrew Knapp needed Tommy John surgery and could miss part of 2014, while Roman Quinn will likely be out until June or July after rupturing his Achilles tendon while working out.

2014 impact

Jesse Biddle probably makes his major league debut this summer, boosting the back of the rotation. Ethan Martin is a reliever all the way for me, and should spend most of 2014 on the big league roster. Kenny Giles, who can sit 98-99 in short stints, could surface this year if he can stay healthy.

The fallen

Adam Morgan was the Phillies' No. 1 prospect last year, No. 92 overall, but his shoulder blew up and he's had surgery to try to repair the damage. Shane Watson, who missed their top 10 last year but was one of their highest draft picks in 2012, also recently had shoulder surgery; both pitchers will miss most or all of 2014. Catcher Tommy Joseph was No. 5 in their system last year, but a severe concussion (as if there were such a thing as a "mild" brain trauma) has his future as a catcher in doubt.

Sleeper

Deivi Grullon has an 80-grade arm behind the plate and has a chance to be an elite defender all around, developing very quickly on the side of the ball, but has a ways to go with the bat, right now showing more power than feel to hit. His floor looks very high due to his arm and glove and his aptitude for learning the more cerebral parts of catching.


Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (21)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (65)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (83)
4. Nate Karns, RHP
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
6. Pedro Severino, C
7. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
8. Jake Johansen, RHP
9. Michael Taylor, CF
10. Steven Souza, OF
Washington Nationals
Org rank: 18

Farm system overview

Similar to last year's top 10, the Nationals' current list boasts a strong front five with a bit of a drop-off to the rest of the system.

Lucas Giolito has ace upside once he builds up the durability to handle a full workload; he's just a few months back from Tommy John surgery and rehab and is all potential right now. A.J. Cole re-established himself as a starting pitching candidate, bouncing back from a poor year in exile with the A's. Both Nate Karns and Sammy Solis could be someone's starters, although there's no room at the inn in Washington right now.

Jefry Rodriguez is very intriguing as a converted shortstop who's up to 98 with a power curveball, but as you might expect has even further to go than your typical rookie-ball pitcher because he's new to the craft. The Nationals' first pick in 2013, Jake Johansen, was a little underwhelming as their top selection (they didn't have a first-round pick), a power arm who almost certainly projects as a reliever down the line.

Beyond the top 10, they did get solid pro debuts from right-hander Austin Voth (No. 11), who was 90-94 with a solid-average slider, and third baseman Drew Ward (No. 12), a very physical kid who may end up at first base but has the potential for impact power.

2014 impact

Karns had a cup of coffee last year and could help the Nats again this year as a spot starter or in a long relief role, which might be ideal for him as he needs work on turning a lineup over more than anything else. Outfielder Eury Perez would be a good bench candidate for someone, even if it's not here.

The fallen

I think the Matt Purke ship has probably sailed at this point; the overhyped, overpaid lefty threw just 90 innings this year, all in Class A, and looked like a future reliever between his low slot and average-ish velocity. He's now about 14 months removed from shoulder surgery, much of the blame for which lies not with him, but with the TCU coaching staff that worked him hard his freshman year and continued to roll him out there his sophomore year when he was obviously ailing.

Sleeper

Pedro Severino was an All-Star in the Sally League this year, primarily because of his defense -- he's a superb pitch-framer with a 70 or 80 arm, with the rare combination of strength and flexibility that's ideal for the position. At the plate, he's very balanced with a clean, efficient swing; there's probably not a lot of future power there, but he should make plenty of contact and hit for average. The defense is the calling card here, enough to get him to the big leagues at a young age while the bat develops.

Top 10 prospects (NL West).

Spoiler

AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST


Diamondbacks' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Archie Bradley, RHP (9)
2. Braden Shipley, RHP (25)
3. Chris Owings, SS (72)
4. Stryker Trahan, C
5. Aaron Blair, RHP
6. Brandon Drury, 3B/1B
7. Jake Lamb, 3B
8. Jose Martinez, RHP
9. Felipe Perez, RHP
10. Sergio Alcantara, SS
Arizona Diamondbacks
Org rank: 15


Farm system overview

Of the D-backs' top 10 prospects two years ago, three are now on the major league roster, led by Pat Corbin, while three others have been dispatched in trades over the past year-plus. A couple of solid drafts the past two years have helped restock the system, but at this point, the scouting staff can't add talent as quickly as Kevin Towers is dealing it away.

Fortunately, they've got a future ace at the top of the system in Archie Bradley, and I love Braden Shipley's chances to become a solid No. 2 behind him thanks to his athleticism and relative inexperience on the mound. Stryker Trahan has come a long way defensively since signing, especially in throwing out runners, and had a solid second pro season despite losing his mother in April after a long battle with cancer.

Brandon Drury was the big surprise in the system this year; widely seen (including by me) as a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, he led the low Class A Midwest League in doubles with 11 more than anyone else, finished seventh in slugging, and showed a cerebral approach at the plate that improved as the year went on. He may be playable at third base, but is still a work in progress there. Jake Lamb had the bigger rate stats and is more likely to stay at third, but missed two months last year with a sprained right wrist. Sergio Alcantara was just 16 in rookie ball last summer, showing great plate discipline and good instincts at short with a plus arm, a possible everyday shortstop if he can get a good bit stronger over the next couple of years.

Just missing their top 10: shortstop Jose Munoz (No. 11 in the system), likely to move to third base with a good feel to hit and potential average power; lefty Daniel Gibson (No. 12), 90-94 mph on his fastball with two fringy-to-average breaking balls, starting now after he relieved at the University of Florida; outfielder Justin Williams (No. 13), who has huge raw power but is pretty crude at the plate and in the field; and right-hander Jimmy Sherfy (No. 14), a former college closer with plus stuff and a bad delivery, someone the Snakes should move quickly to capitalize on his arm while they can.

2014 impact

Chris Owings could unseat Didi Gregorius as the everyday shortstop in Phoenix, while Bradley should make his debut at some point this summer. Right-hander Mike Stites came over in the Ian Kennedy trade. He has been 96-98 and could challenge for a bullpen role this spring, as could right-hander Jake Barrett, whose fastball/slider combo is filthy when he's healthy, which isn't all that often.

The fallen

No one. If you show the slightest sign of weakness, Towers will not hesitate to put you on the trade market.

Sleeper

Everyone who sees right-hander Jose Martinez raves about him. He has a somewhat slight build for a starter, similar to St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez, but his fastball is 94-96 mph with a curveball that runs from average to plus. His stuff is ahead of his control, though, as he walked 25 in 38 innings last summer for short-season Yakima.




Rockies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP (12)
2. Eddie Butler, RHP (17)
3. David Dahl, OF (47)
4. Rosell Herrera, SS (54)
5. Raimel Tapia, OF
6. Tom Muprhy, C
7. Trevor Story, SS
8. Kyle Parker, 1B
9. Ryan McMahon, 3B
10. Tyler Matzek, LHP
Colorado Rockies
Org rank: 8

Farm system overview

The Rockies' system looks a whole lot better than it has ever looked with these two potential aces at the top of the list: Jonathan Gray, the third overall pick in last year's draft, and Eddie Butler, who took a big step forward after he was their supplemental first-round pick in 2012. Both guys made a lot of progress with their changeups last summer, and neither is that far away from contributing in Coors Field.

David Dahl missed almost all of last year due to injury, but looked fine in instructs and should be ready to go in March. I still like the tools and feel for hitting, given his age, and think he'll develop into an above-average regular. Rosell Herrera repeated the low-A Sally League in a great hitter's park, so it would help to see him carry it over to high-A this year. He's athletic and can play a little out of control, but the tools are exciting. Tom Murphy has improved his receiving to solid-average now, along with a 60 arm, and has above-average raw power. But he was way too old for the Sally League last year and I hope he'll start 2014 in Double-A now that he'll be 23 years old. Tyler Matzek has never lived up to expectations that made him the 11th overall pick in 2009, but at least he has the fastball/breaking-ball combination to be an effective left-handed reliever.

The Rockies have a lot of depth in arms beyond their top 10 names, led by Antonio Senzatela, a Venezuelan right-hander who just turned 19 last week. The 11th-best prospect in the system, he has been up to 95 and will flash a plus curveball and a plus changeup, needing consistency with the secondary stuff and to work on command and on how to use his stuff more effectively.

Lefty Tyler Anderson (No. 12) should still be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but his past two years have been wrecked by back and elbow problems. I still like right-hander Ryan Warner (No. 13) as a long-term prospect, still projectable at 6-foot-7 with present command and plane, needing now to grow into his frame. They also have a slew of relief candidates, such as Scott Oberg, up to 95 with a swing-and-miss curveball; Raul Fernandez, who reaches the upper 90s and punched out 36 percent of the guys he faced in Asheville last year, but needs to stay healthy; and lefty Sam Moll, their third-round pick last year, a starter now but I think a dominant left-handed reliever who'll show a 60-grade fastball and plus slider with an average changeup in short relief.

2014 impact

The Rockies may not wish to rush Gray or Butler, but I don't think either guy is that far off, with Butler closer in experience and also in stuff. Rule 5 draft selection Tommy Kahnle might stick as a 12th man in their pen.

The fallen

Tim Wheeler's 33-homer season in Double-A Tulsa in 2011 seemed like an anomaly at the time, and since reaching Triple-A Colorado Springs he has been both hurt and unproductive, with seven homers in more than 850 plate appearances there across two seasons. Matzek hasn't been able to command his fastball enough to start, and he actually walked more right-handers (63) than he struck out (60) last year, which is kind of a problem.

Sleeper

Outfielder Raimel Tapia is a gifted young hitter, boasting phenomenal hand-eye coordination, confidence at the plate for someone so young, and an ability to adjust to changing speeds. At 6-2, he's wiry and a little projectable still, playing center now but potentially ending up a corner where his bat would still play.

The Rockies don't have a complex-league team -- hello, Mr. Monfort, it's a great investment for a tiny amount of money -- so Tapia had to jump from the Dominican Summer League to the advanced rookie-level Pioneer League, and all he did was finish second in the circuit in total bases and eighth in OPS. He could put up some big numbers in Asheville, which is a great hitters' park, if the Rockies push him there this spring.



Dodgers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Julio Urias, LHP (14)
2. Corey Seager, 3B (1
3. Joc Pederson, OF (41)
4. Zach Lee, RHP (75)
5. Chris Anderson, RHP (96)
6. Jesmuel Valentin, SS
7. Tom Windle, LHP
8. Ross Stripling, RHP
9. Alexander Guerrero, 2B
10. Kyle Farmer, C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Org rank: 11

Farm system overview

This is the best front five the Dodgers have had since the Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier/Russell Martin era, led by a pair of teenagers, Julio Urias and Corey Seager. The Dodgers' drafts, other than the cash-strapped 2011 year, have been successful at getting talent into the system, with Corey Seager, Zach Lee, and Chris Anderson all first-rounders, Jesmuel Valentin in the sandwich round, and Tom Windle in the second, while Joc Pederson was a big bonus signing in the 11th round.

Valentin is a premium defender whose bat is still an open question. Windle looked better after signing than he had in the spring at Minnesota, picking up strength as the weather warmed up, eventually hitting 95 mph in instructional league with a plus slider at 84 mph -- way above what I saw from him back in March.

Alexander Guerrero may hit, but he's got a stiff body and reports on his defense from winter ball were poor. Kyle Farmer, a shortstop at the University of Georgia, converted to catching after signing and picked it up quickly, with good energy and plenty of arm.

Also of note: Lefty Chris Reed (No. 11), a clear reliever but ready to pitch in the majors whenever he's needed; Scott Barlow (No. 12) and Zach Bird (No. 13), discussed below as sleepers; and converted infielder Pedro Baez (No. 15), now throwing hard on the mound but still working on the art of pitching as a reliever in Double-A. Right fielder Joey Curletta (No. 14) hit well in rookie-level Ogden at age 19; he's got a thick, strong build and is pretty short to the ball, with plus power in BP but a more contact-oriented approach during games.

2014 impact

There's hardly any room at the inn in Los Angeles for rookies. Guerrero might be the second baseman if the Dodgers can live with his below-average glove, and some of their relief prospects, especially Chris Withrow and Reed, will log major league innings this year.

The fallen

For all the hype James Baldwin Jr. had due to his plus speed and his bloodlines, he hasn't performed: Repeating low-A at age 21, he hit .238/.323/.388 and struck out in 36 percent of his at-bats.

Sleeper

Last year's sleeper, Bird, struggled with command and control in low-A, but was a little better after a demotion to the Pioneer League. He still has a great arm and a chance for three average or better pitches, but his youth (he turned 19 in July) and inexperience (he's from a high school in rural Mississippi) showed. Also, keep an eye on Barlow, back this year after missing 2012 due to Tommy John surgery, still waiting for the last of his velocity to return -- if it does at all.



Padres' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Austin Hedges, C (33)
2. Matt Wisler, RHP (39)
3. Max Fried, LHP (4
4. Hunter Renfroe, RF
5. Casey Kelly, RHP
6. Dustin Peterson, SS
7. Joe Ross, RHP
8. Zach Eflin, RHP
9. Andy Lockett, RHP
10. Rymer Liriano, RF
San Diego Padres
Org rank: 9


Farm system overview

The Padres' system remains deep and ready to supply the major league club with cheap starting pitching and the occasional bat, led by Austin Hedges, one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He's more power-before-hit at this point, but with a good idea at the plate and high contact rates that give hope he'll keep his OBP respectable while saving a zillion runs with his glove and arm.

Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano both missed the year due to Tommy John surgery. It was worse for Liriano, who desperately needed those at-bats to continue to work on recognizing off-speed stuff. Right-handers Joe Ross, Zach Eflin and Walker Weickel (No. 13) all flash plus stuff but need to work on command and turning lineups over three times. Eflin is the most advanced on the mound, sinking the fastball and going to a plus changeup for swings and misses, throwing a slider now that projects as average.

Shortstop Jace Peterson (No. 11) has the speed and actions to play there or at second, and he has performed well over the past two years. But he has been old for his leagues both times, staying in high-A all of 2013 even though there was no one blocking him in Double-A.

Right-hander Jesse Hahn (No. 12) just came over in a trade with Tampa Bay that also netted Alex Torres. he shows top-of-the-rotation stuff but has no history at all of staying healthy in that role, and it's more likely he's a premium reliever if his arm holds up. Josh Van Meter (No. 14) projects as an average defender at short. He can hit a little but will have to show more pop as he moves up the ladder.

2014 impact

Matt Wisler is close to being ready for the majors, and by midyear will likely be one of the three or four best starters in the organization. The Padres' current rotation leads off with three injury-prone guys in Andrew Cashner, Josh Johnson and Tyson Ross, so there will be opportunities for Wisler and for Kelly when he returns to action.

The fallen

Both Kelly and Liriano fell off the top 100 due to elbow surgery, and neither had performed up to expectations (or the level of their physical tools) prior to their injuries.

Sleeper

Andy Lockett missed all of 2013 (outside of three short relief outings in the complex league) with a blister issue that just wouldn't clear up; when that's not an issue, he'll run his fastball up to 94 with sink and shows a plus change. His arm works well and his slider was better than ever in instructs last year, although that won't really count until he can throw it against live hitters.



Giants' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kyle Crick, RHP (69)
2. Andrew Susac, C
3. Edwin Escobar, LHP
4. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
5. Adalberto Mejia, RHP
6. Christian Arroyo, SS
7. Joan Gregorio, RHP
8. Mac Williamson, RF
9. Ty Blach, LHP
10. Gary Brown, CF
San Francisco Giants
Org rank: 25


Farm system overview

The Giants have plundered their own system for trades and for a few big league jobs during their run of contention over the past five years, so the system remains thin, with starting pitching the one area of strength but none of it close to the majors.

Kyle Crick has power stuff, two plus pitches, but poor command and a need for a third weapon. Andrew Susac gets far too little attention within the industry, in my opinion. He's a solid-average regular, a catcher who receives fine, throws well and has above-average power. Edwin Escobar has the upside of the three arms I have in the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots on the list, with the above-average fastball/changeup combo, whereas Clayton Blackburn has the command and control, looking like a good back-end starter but without much ceiling.

Christian Arroyo won't stay at shortstop, but I see an offensive-minded second baseman with good feel to hit. He'll have to find more power to profile as a quality regular there, or become a more patient hitter so he can rack up high OBP. Mac Williamson can run, throw and hit for power, but the knock is his bat speed, which may not handle better velocity so well when he reaches Double- or Triple-A. Ty Blach had a tremendous pro debut in 2013, showing back-of-the-rotation stuff and superlative control, but his history of shoulder trouble makes him more likely to end up in a relief role.

Their rookie-level Arizona League team had a few arms worth keeping in the back of your mind in lefty Luis Ysla and righty Keury Mella; Mella's younger and the ball seems to explode out of his hand, so he just overmatched hitters in the complex league. Joe Panik remains in the system as a potential utility infielder.

2014 impact

Reliever Heath Hembree has been on the cusp of the majors for two years but has had trouble staying healthy, finally debuting in September and throwing well enough that he'll probably stick with the team this April.

The fallen

Gary Brown does it all wrong for a guy with plus speed and range in center. He doesn't play hard, he doesn't take well to instruction, and he doesn't make adjustments at the plate. At this point, he's probably a fourth or fifth outfielder, unless he's willing to alter his swing so he can make better contact.

Sleeper

Joan Gregorio is a 6-7 right-hander whose fastball is up to 96 mph with a hard mid-80s slider and is just now starting to fill out physically. His arm works well, and his main issue going forward is getting more on top of his fastball so he can use his height to generate plane and keep the ball out of the air.

 

[jewbacca]

Damn, one of my HS teammates is on Law's fallen section

 

[ooiron manoo]

New addition to the bobblehead collection

The Nats released their promo schedule today, a lot of bobblehead nights and a Jayson Werth garden gnome but nothing too exciting besides that.

Are any of your teams scheduling any good giveaways this year?

That's a sick bobblehead.

Dodgers giving out a million bobbleheads this year, going to the well way too much.

That "alternate" road jersey, , half assed money grab.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Is there a list out of what the Dodgers bobbleheads will be? Would like to add to my small collection.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Giants going with an old school orange jerseys for Friday home games

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

I like those Giants jerseys.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

I like them too

 

[threeoneoh]

Is there a list out of what the Dodgers bobbleheads will be? Would like to add to my small collection.

not yet, but AJ Ellis and Brian wilson are getting one this year

 

[アミーゴ]

Damn, one of my HS teammates is on Law's fallen section

My boy is too... But everything he wrote is wrong, my dude changed his swing when asked

 

[dland24]

 

Damn, one of my HS teammates is on Law's fallen section

My boy is too... But everything he wrote is wrong, my dude changed his swing when asked

Is your boy Gary Brown?

 

[ooiron manoo]

Is there a list out of what the Dodgers bobbleheads will be? Would like to add to my small collection.

4/24 vs. Phillies - Clayton Kershaw
5/13 vs. Marlins - Yasiel Puig
5/27 vs. Reds - Hyun-Jin Ryu
6/3 vs. White Sox- Hello Kitty Mini Bobblehead :x
6/14 vs Dbacks - Tommy Lasorda
6/26 vs. Cardinals - Fan Vote (Brian Wilson)
7/13 vs. Padres - Roy Campanella/Pee Wee Reese
7/31 vs. Braves - The Original 30 HR Club (Baker, Cey, Garvey, Smith)
8/20 vs. Padres - Zach Greinke
9/2 vs. Nationals - Magic Johnson
9/7 vs. Dbacks - AJ Ellis
9/9 vs. Padres - Babe Ruth

 

[champcruthik]

My hunch is O's land Burnett and Mariners end up with Nellie.

1/6 for Hammel to the Cubs. Hoping James McDonald shows some resurgence with Chicago.

$5.05M for Freese to avoid arbitration.

Feliz hitting 98 on the gun in winter ball.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Is there a list out of what the Dodgers bobbleheads will be? Would like to add to my small collection.

4/24 vs. Phillies - Clayton Kershaw
5/13 vs. Marlins - Yasiel Puig
5/27 vs. Reds - Hyun-Jin Ryu
6/3 vs. White Sox- Hello Kitty Mini Bobblehead :x
6/14 vs Dbacks - Tommy Lasorda
6/26 vs. Cardinals - Fan Vote (Brian Wilson)
7/13 vs. Padres - Roy Campanella/Pee Wee Reese
7/31 vs. Braves - The Original 30 HR Club (Baker, Cey, Garvey, Smith)
8/20 vs. Padres - Zach Greinke
9/2 vs. Nationals - Magic Johnson
9/7 vs. Dbacks - AJ Ellis
9/9 vs. Padres - Babe Ruth

Babe Ruth? What gives?

 

[ooiron manoo]

Babe Ruth? What gives?

He was a first base coach for one season,

Trust, I know the folks in the marketing department, terrible. Their solution to everything is bobbleheads,