2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[champcruthik]

Obviously you need LAD to absorb a significant portion of Matty's exorbitant, inflated contract, but he's MVP caliber when healthy. Move him to a corner OF spot to preserve longevity. Let him spot DH. Seattle, Boston, Detroit all AL teams with that capacity.

Castellanos' glove work at the hot corner is going to be nice working with Vizquel.

Similar to Matt Williams, Brad Ausmus got the keys to a Lambo.

Tigers/Nats WS. Why not.

 

[proshares]

I doubt he ever gets back to 2011 form personally.

Plus, he was pretty useless in 2010. Who's to say that was his career year or not?

He's pretty much been replacement level for two of the last four years. Throw in serious injury problems & the fact that he'll move to a less valuable position. It all just screams bad to me. I'm rooting for him but it's gonna be a long road back.

Ah, 2010 off season I went back and forth with 562 all winter about Kemp.

 

[ooiron manoo]

Unless they eat about $120mm, they're not going to get jack for Kemp and whoever trades for him without that is crazy.

Are you being sarcastic?

He's owed about $129 million at this point, so you're saying the receiving team should get a player of Matt Kemps caliber for 5 years at $9 million, Please say it's sarcasm, because that is a ridiculous statement.

To get a reasonable return the Dodgers will have to make Kemp a $13 to $15 million a year player, essentially eating anywhere from $30-45 million. Not a bad risk considering the high reward attached to Kemp, and considering the deal Ellsbury got and Choo is about to get.

Not a fan of trading Kemp, even if it means landing Price. That would leave us with one of the best rotations ever assembled, yet the worst outfield in the history of baseball. On top of that, two big holes in the infield. Didn't work out for the Phillies when they loaded up on pitching.

He's pretty much been replacement level for two of the last four years. Throw in serious injury problems & the fact that he'll move to a less valuable position. It all just screams bad to me. I'm rooting for him but it's gonna be a long road back.

This is where I feel advanced metrics takes a dip, in 2010 his WAR was below replacement level but still had a potent bat that any Manager/GM would love.

He was above replacement in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2010 was the only year he dipped and that can be attributed to his high SO rate.

Long road was the tail end of the 2012 season and the beginning of 2013, he was actually starting to hit for power when he returned after the All Star break when he had that freak ankle injury at home plate.

If Colletti is dumb enough to trade Kemp, whoever receives him is going to get a bargain. A top 5 player in his prime, buying when his value is low. He'll be a steal. Would'nt be surprised if he lands in Boston, it's the type of move they would make and the reason they are the defending champions. They'll stick it to the Yanks too, replace Ellsbury with someone better, younger and cheaper.

Honestly, would piss me off if they trade Kemp, , don't even want to think about it.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Dodgers not in the running for Garza?

 

[proshares]

That was a typo on my part.

Although, I'm sure my # of $100mm isn't too bright in your opinion anyway.

 

[proshares]

My point is, Dodgers are not going to get anything of value for Kemp if they don't eat at least $100mm off the contract. If they eat only $20mm - $30mm, they're just going to end up giving him away as a salary dumped for a couple of nobodies. And if a team like Seattle trades LA Franklin or Walker for him and LA only eats that small amount, that's idiotic to me.

 

[dland24]

Not a fan of trading Kemp........That would leave us with.....the worst outfield in the history of baseball.

Give me a break.

 

[ooiron manoo]

Dodgers not in the running for Garza?

Why would they be? They have about 1,000 starting pitchers and only three bullpen arms at the moment.

My point is, Dodgers are not going to get anything of value for Kemp if they don't eat at least $100mm off the contract. If they eat only $20mm - $30mm, they're just going to end up giving him away as a salary dumped for a couple of nobodies. And if a team like Seattle trades LA Franklin or Walker for him and LA only eats that small amount, that's idiotic to me.

$100 million is a ridiculous sum of money. Even then the receiving Kemp at 5 years $29 million. Think about it. Even with the injuries of 2012 and 2013, Kemp is not a $5-6 million a year player. He still produced in his limited time.

Plus the Dodgers are not in a position where they HAVE to trade Kemp. If the return is minimal, then why take the risk of trading him. Let him have an amazing 2014, which he will. I see him having a slow first half, and tearing it up in the second half.

Dodgers should'nt pick up more than 40% of what remains on the deal. If they can't get anything of value from Boston (Middlebrooks) or Seattle (Franklin), then don't do the deal. Easy as that.

Seattle needs Kemp more than we need to unload him. They can have Ethier for a bag of peanuts and cash. There's a guy with no value. We'll throw in Crawford for a bucket of Double Bubble.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Too true, I just got a look at the rotation again. Thought it was lighter than what it is.

 

[ooiron manoo]

Give me a break.

It would be a major break for the entire NL West,

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

RF Puig
CF Ethier
LF Crawford

Makes my stomach hurt just thinking about it. Puig is a great talent but raw and is prone to overswinging and making mistakes defensively. Ethier is not that great defensively and can't hit lefties. Crawford has a noodle arm and can't hit lefties. Yikes,

 

[champcruthik]

IronMan: I'm with you 110%. I'll ride for Matty as long as JMM continues crying about losing decisions.

Health is the only concern. When healthy, Matty's far better than Crawford, Werth, Ells, Choo. And you guys know I love Ells so that says/means a lot.

Pro: Forget Price then. If LAD can wrangle Walker away for Kemp. You do it ten times out of ten. Zduriencik is better than that, I hope for Seattle fans. I'd trade away Franklin before Walker. Jack, even if LAD eats half of Matty's contract (huge portion), don't get tempted into giving away Taijuan.

King Felix, Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, Pike. Be patient, M's fans.

Even after Guerrero's 4/28, it wasn't out of the question for LAD to assemble the best rotation in baseball trading for Price and posting for Tanaka.

Nats got better in the NL. Braves still a threat. Cardinals are deep developing their own products. You have to keep pace and remain in striking distance.

 

[champcruthik]

IronMan: Forget Middlebrooks, I'd ask Boston for JBJ or X.

Two of the three bullpen arms are lethal though. Kenley and Wilson. Maybe pry the lefty from the A, O'Flaherty.

 

[651akathepaul]

Champ: Have you seen that article on the ineptitude of the M's front office?

I can definitely see Seattle making some unsound decisions now after getting Cano. It's great they got Robbie, but now the pressure is really on to build a competitor. It may mean getting rid of Walker and forcing Z to panic an go into desperation mode.

I wouldn't do it though and there's rumblings of the focus shifting to the M's unloading Zunino and I don't even feel right about that.

 

[champcruthik]

651: Link, please.

Walker is a future ace. Fastball, curve, change. Athlete. Starting to grasp his command. Comfortably worked through Double A and Triple A ball successfully.

I only rank Tavares and Buxton above him.

LAA's rotation has question marks even with Skaggs and Santiago. Watch them overpay for Garza. Stuck with Hamilton and Albert contracts. Trout is their glimmer of hope.

Oakland can be overtaken despite their shrewd business model. Jack just needs to be patient with the pitching prospects and let the rotation come together by 2015. I wouldn't even part with Ackley unless you receive a tempting offer from NYM, NYY, etc.

Stros are cellar dwellers. Only Jewbacca gets excited for them.

 

[651akathepaul]

http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2022420240_mariners08xml.html

 

[dland24]

 

Give me a break.

It would be a major break for the entire NL West,

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

RF Puig
CF Ethier
LF Crawford

Makes my stomach hurt just thinking about it. Puig is a great talent but raw and is prone to overswinging and making mistakes defensively. Ethier is not that great defensively and can't hit lefties. Crawford has a noodle arm and can't hit lefties. Yikes,

I hear what you are saying, and in fact totally agree with your breakdown in the spoiler.  But the worst outfield in the history of baseball?  No chance.  I am not even going to dig into it to argue against that stance, but off the top of my head, the Giants started an outfield of Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis and Randy Winn. 

I am sure a fan of every team can think of an equally bad example that is dwarfed by Puig, Ethier and Crawford.

 

[proshares]

Dodgers not in the running for Garza?

Why would they be? They have about 1,000 starting pitchers and only three bullpen arms at the moment.

My point is, Dodgers are not going to get anything of value for Kemp if they don't eat at least $100mm off the contract. If they eat only $20mm - $30mm, they're just going to end up giving him away as a salary dumped for a couple of nobodies. And if a team like Seattle trades LA Franklin or Walker for him and LA only eats that small amount, that's idiotic to me.

$100 million is a ridiculous sum of money. Even then the receiving Kemp at 5 years $29 million. Think about it. Even with the injuries of 2012 and 2013, Kemp is not a $5-6 million a year player. He still produced in his limited time.

Plus the Dodgers are not in a position where they HAVE to trade Kemp. If the return is minimal, then why take the risk of trading him. Let him have an amazing 2014, which he will. I see him having a slow first half, and tearing it up in the second half.

Dodgers should'nt pick up more than 40% of what remains on the deal. If they can't get anything of value from Boston (Middlebrooks) or Seattle (Franklin), then don't do the deal. Easy as that.

Seattle needs Kemp more than we need to unload him. They can have Ethier for a bag of peanuts and cash. There's a guy with no value. We'll throw in Crawford for a bucket of Double Bubble.

The limited time is still going to be a key issue and it's going to make everyone nervous. Those kind of injuries nag more often than they heal completely. The fact that he has to move to a corner position, he's going to have to put up insane #'s to match his contract. $100 million is not that far fetched for a guy with a deteriorating shoulder.

You're right, they're not in a position where they need to deal him. I'm just saying where other teams should be standing in terms of what they offer in relation to how much money LA is eating. I'm working under the assumption he's being traded and that they want that money off their books.

If they decide to keep him, then nothing that I'm saying holds any credence anymore

 

[champcruthik]

Thanks, 651.

I would call sour grapes on Wedge's part (didn't like him in Cleveland), but Blengino's account would indicate otherwise.

Jack did trade Fister for virtually nothing. Verdict still out on the Montero/Pineda swap.

Z's third manager. Seven since 2007. Lack of managerial stability or continuity. Is McClendon the right guy?

 

[champcruthik]

I'm equally concerned with Matty's hammy as his lead shoulder.

 

[champcruthik]

Plus the left ankle that hobbled him and prevented him from playing in the 2013 Playoffs.

 

[essential1]

I wasn't saying it made sense...just their thought process. They want a star to put next to Cano, I think they'll either overpay w/o the extension assurance of Price or they'll trade for Kemp and overpay their with prospects + LA not eating as much as it should.

As long as we establish it doesn't make sense

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Jerry Blevins has been traded to the Nationals, per Chris Cotillo.

 

[proshares]

IronMan: I'm with you 110%. I'll ride for Matty as long as JMM continues crying about losing decisions.

Health is the only concern. When healthy, Matty's far better than Crawford, Werth, Ells, Choo. And you guys know I love Ells so that says/means a lot.

Pro: Forget Price then. If LAD can wrangle Walker away for Kemp. You do it ten times out of ten. Zduriencik is better than that, I hope for Seattle fans. I'd trade away Franklin before Walker. Jack, even if LAD eats half of Matty's contract (huge portion), don't get tempted into giving away Taijuan.

King Felix, Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, Pike. Be patient, M's fans.

Even after Guerrero's 4/28, it wasn't out of the question for LAD to assemble the best rotation in baseball trading for Price and posting for Tanaka.

Nats got better in the NL. Braves still a threat. Cardinals are deep developing their own products. You have to keep pace and remain in striking distance.

Again, we're just going off his 2011 is his standard year. How do we know that wasn't a career year and he goes back to 2009 Kemp? Or even 2010 Kemp?

I know the other side of that argument is "Maybe 2011 was just another step up for him". I just don't see it with these injuries + the move to a corner + the fact that he stopped running. I know people HATE to think of any other stats outside of offensive stats but that stuff goes into his value as well.

If LAD can snag Walker, of course they do it my whole argument is that if Seattle does that, then they better make sure LA is eating a big portion of that contract.

That rotation looks nice...but how often do teams have 3 pitching prospects and all 3 work out?

 

[651akathepaul]

Something will happen today. I can feel it...Something big.

 

[champcruthik]

Matty's agent just came out and said a trade isn't imminent, according to Stark.

Hart deciding between the Brew Crew and M's. Could be a shrewd, redemption signing depending on the numbers.