2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[jumpmanfromdabay]

I remember seeing a meme after he got suspended. PEDs (Pizza, Enchalidas, Doughnuts)

 

[abovelegit1]

His fastball velocity is the lowest it's been in his career, what did steroids do for Bartolo?

They've allowed a 40 year old fat guy to pitch every fifth day without even a hint of arm/shoulder fatigue or slip in performance.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Being able to perform at that high level at 40 years old every fifth day should draw red flags.

 

[gunna get it]

at this point, im convinced he's just pretending.to be this ignorant.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

They've allowed a 40 year old fat guy to pitch every fifth day without even a hint of arm/shoulder fatigue or slip in performance.

Really?

Yest somehow his velocity is as low as its ever been in his career, you think if you were suffering less fatigue than normal you would see an up tick in your velocity, yet Bartolo seems to be declining at a steady rate. His K rate has declined as well, Bartolo Colons performance has declined in just about every measurable way except ERA.

Noted fat guy David Wells pulled the exact same thing in San Diego, a huge pitchers park, excellent control, throwing mostly fastballs, not striking anybody out was he on roids?

Did steroids make Bartolo's LOB% 81%? or his BABIP artificially low? Do steroids make you more lucky?


HGH, im sure helped Bartolo recover from that shoulder injury, he had in Chicago, but is he using something now that enhances his performance?



You guys have to challenge these assumptions you make.

Bartolo has declined in every way, except ERA, era is subject to factors like luck, defense, ball park.

 

[freddie black]

Beltre.

*83

Spoiler: Adrian%20Beltre%2C%20the%20Everything-Hitter

It’s July 3. No it isn’t! But it is in this paragraph. It’s July 3, and it’s Texas, and it’s the bottom of the sixth of a game between the Rangers and the Mariners. There’s a score, but it doesn’t matter. Adrian Beltre leads off against Felix Hernandez, and on the third pitch, Beltre blasts an automatic double to right-center field, Dustin Ackley watching as the ball bounces over the fence. Beltre coasts into second, and he tries to get Hernandez’s ear. Hernandez, in turn, tries not to listen, but Beltre keeps boasting. Hernandez looks back at second before throwing his next pitch.

The first thing that makes Beltre easy to love is his talent. He’s a power hitter who doubles as one of the greatest defensive third basemen in recent history. The second thing is his drive. Beltre, as you’ve surely heard, once played through a destroyed testicle, and even scored the winning run. And the third thing is his personality. Beltre has an endearing sense of humor, and he’s also got his quirks. His happy feet, his aversion to being touched on the head, his rivalry with Felix Hernandez. Beltre and Hernandez are always playfully talking trash whenever they go head-to-head, and for Beltre, this particular double was revenge for the plate appearance prior.

Beltre had faced Hernandez earlier, in the fourth inning. With the count 2-and-2, Hernandez got Beltre to chase and get himself out.



The two stared each other down, and any observer who didn’t know about the personal history might’ve figured there was mutual bad blood. That’s the thing — Hernandez and Beltre frequently look like they’re arguing. Sometimes fun can have the visual appearance of mean. One time Beltre was even ejected for yelling at Hernandez, because the umpire thought Beltre was yelling about a call. At this point, though, the relationship is pretty well and widely understood.

Also, that’s the last time Adrian Beltre struck out.

Beginning with that double, Beltre has batted 78 times since the bottom of the sixth on July 3. He’s drawn four walks, two of them intentional. He’s hit three doubles, and he’s mashed eight dingers. He’s scored 11 runs. He hasn’t struck out. Let me just say that again: Adrian Beltre hasn’t struck out once over his last 78 plate appearances. This is a streak, and this streak is still active.

As a matter of fact, it’s the longest such streak in 2013. As best I can tell, here are the season’s longest streaks without a strikeout:

1. 78 plate appearances, Adrian Beltre*
2. 72 plate appearances, Norichika Aoki
3. 57 plate appearances, Martin Prado
4. 56 plate appearances, Endy Chavez
5. 54 plate appearances, Albert Pujols

And Beltre gets the asterisk because he could conceivably still add to his streak. All the other long ones are over. Just for good measure, this is also longer than any such streak in 2012. Beltre has the longest streak without a strikeout since 2011, and his streak isn’t over yet, and league-wide strikeout rates have been rising, making these streaks ever more difficult.

And while a streak of making contact isn’t necessarily the same as a streak of making good contact, Beltre has been obliterating the ball. Over the stretch, he’s batted .375. He’s OBP’d .423, and he’s slugged .764, with 11 extra-base hits. By eliminating strikeouts, Beltre didn’t start spraying the infield with weak dribblers. He turned himself into Chris Davis, but without any of the strikeouts. Hold on, let me think of a better comparison.

Is it possible the Rangers have just faced a stretch of non-strikeout pitchers? Nine different Rangers have batted at least 20 times in both June and July. In July, four of their strikeout rates have gone up. One has stayed the same, and two have barely dropped. Elvis Andrus is down by 6.3 percentage points, and Beltre is down by double those percentage points. Here are some pitchers that Beltre has faced during the streak:

• Hisashi Iwakuma
• Danny Farquhar
• Erik Bedard
• Tommy Hunter
• Doug Fister
• Max Scherzer
• Al Alburquerque
• Justin Verlander
• Joaquin Benoit
• Chris Tillman
• Ivan Nova
• Phil Hughes
• Joba Chamberlain
• Andy Pettitte
• Hiroki Kuroda
• Mariano Rivera

There have been plenty of strikeout opportunities. Beltre just hasn’t struck out. He will strike out at some point again, maybe even on Friday, but what he’s already done is remarkable and it’s unlikely to be surpassed any time soon.

So, what, has Beltre refined his batting approach? Here are two graphs of swings, from Texas Leaguers. One covers the span of his contact streak, while one covers the rest of his season. Are you able to tell the difference?





Even during the streak, there have been wild, out-of-zone swings. Here are a few selected examples:







And here are a couple home runs on pitches inside off the plate:





Truth be told, here’s the big change: before the streak, Beltre had an in-zone swing rate of 64%. During the streak, it’s been 74%. And, naturally, his contact rates have been way higher. He’s made more contact on pitches out of the zone, and he’s made more contact on pitches in the zone. He’s swung at more than half of the pitches he’s seen, and 93% of the time, he’s at least touched the baseball. More often, he’s touched it rather firmly. Adrian Beltre hasn’t become disciplined; he’s just been successfully aggressive.

And this is part of a bigger trend, for him. No, Beltre isn’t going to be a power-hitting Marco Scutaro, but you wouldn’t think of Beltre as being a guy to hold a streak of plate appearances without striking out. His long-standing weakness was sliders low and away, as is the case for a lot of right-handed hitters, and Mariners fans will remember Beltre for ending his share of rallies. As will Dodgers fans, at least outside of that one season. Something Beltre’s never changed is his aggressiveness. His swing rate has always hovered around 50%. His first-pitch swing rate has long hovered around the mid- to high-20s. He still has one of the league’s higher rates of swings at balls. Adrian Beltre has never been patient, and he probably never will be. And yet:

Source: FanGraphs -- Adrian Beltre

As league strikeouts have gone up, Beltre’s strikeouts have gone down. In 2006, Beltre had a strikeout rate 3% above the league average. So far this year, his strikeout rate is half the league average, and he’s still running extraordinary power numbers. Beltre isn’t really walking much, but he’s never walked much, so there’s not anything there to really sacrifice. Beltre’s just gotten older and started hitting the ball more. That’s one of the reasons why he’s a 34-year-old borderline superstar.

Adrian Beltre has Alcides Escobar‘s swing rates, Ichiro’s whiff rate, and Mark Trumbo‘s isolated power. Adrian Beltre has baseball’s longest streak of not striking out. Players aren’t supposed to age in the way that Adrian Beltre has, but then, he’s always been one of a kind.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

If Bartolo is on something, that is invisible to statistical measurement, piss tests, eye tests, and can turn fat guys into cy young candidate, Steroids that can just make ball magically land in the fielders glove, he needs to pass that **** to Josh Johnson.

 

[kevin cleveland]

I bet Masterson breaks Beltre's streak tonight.

 

[freddie black]

It's likely and wouldn't surprise me at all.  Though I thought Kluber would have been able to get him once last night.

---

I hate to contribute further to this constant PED circlejerk but I have to commend Greinke on his frankness.

Asked whether his opinion on Braun as a player changed, Greinke replied, "Not even talking about the player. It’s just the person. Just the fact that he was willing to use anyone that got in his path. The closer you were to him, the more he would use you. It's just disappointing that a human being could be like that."

Greinke was also disappointed that Braun still hasn’t issued "a real apology."

"The fact that even to this day he hasn’t had a real apology is really upsetting to me," Greinke said. "I thought about it a bunch. He still hasn’t really apologized."

 

[abovelegit1]

Really?

Yest somehow his velocity is as low as its ever been in his career, you think if you were suffering less fatigue than normal you would see an up tick in your velocity, yet Bartolo seems to be declining at a steady rate. His K rate has declined as well, Bartolo Colons performance has declined in just about every measurable way except ERA.

Noted fat guy David Wells pulled the exact same thing in San Diego, a huge pitchers park, excellent control, throwing mostly fastballs, not striking anybody out was he on roids?

Did steroids make Bartolo's LOB% 81%? or his BABIP artificially low? Do steroids make you more lucky?


HGH, im sure helped Bartolo recover from that shoulder injury, he had in Chicago, but is he using something now that enhances his performance?



You guys have to challenge these assumptions you make.

Bartolo has declined in every way, except ERA era is subject to factors like luck, defense, ball park.

Being less fatigued doesn't mean you should be able throw harder, it just means you can throw. I'm talking about fatigue over the course of a season - especially in between starts. Most guys that age can't feel their arm they're so sore the day after throwing 100 pitches - yet Colon, who couldn't stay on the field for a 4 year period due to every arm and shoulder problem imaginable, is on pace to pitch 220 innings. Being able to perform is part of performance. Fact is, plenty of PEDs are designed to aid in tissue repair. Which makes it cheating, imo.

Obviously, his K rate and velocity have declined due to age, but his LOB and BABIP aren't drastically off from his career numbers.

I don't believe PEDs magically give you the ability to perform, but neither do I believe it has little to no effect on performance as you seem to. It's somewhere in the middle. And the assumption you make is if it doesn't show up on some macro analysis of baseball statistics, it doesn't exist. Which is untrue, as recovery and all other physical work that doesn't show up in statistics must be factored in. Plus, you have to account for the fact that pitchers use it too, which would have the affect of normalizing most irregular statistical trends.

 

[freddie black]

Pujols could be done for the year. 

  I don't know why they didn't just DL him before the ASB.

 

[jewbacca]

Pujols could be done for the year.    I don't know why they didn't just DL him before the ASB.

He pretty much refused to go on the DL lol

He said the team needed him.

 

[champcruthik]

Josh Johnson is terrible.

Can't even blame it on the velocity.

 

[jewbacca]

Josh Johnson is terrible.

Can't even blame it on the velocity.

Taking a shot at the Astros?

 

[jewbacca]

Bringing the heat.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Clap you up in both our normal and throwback uni's :x

 

[dman14]

pujols basically going down that griffey career path.

 

[jewbacca]

And Beltre K's in his first at-bat to end the streak lol

 

[kevin cleveland]

And Beltre K's in his first at-bat to end the streak lol

Yahtzee.

 

[jewbacca]

Darvish with 9Ks through 4 innings... On 76 pitches.

 

[champcruthik]

That's my guy.

Love the 'Stros, BTW.

 

[dland24]

The problem I have with this argument you are all having with OKB is this. He shows statistical evidence that it helps far less than the common belief. Then the typical rebuttal is that it helps with recovery and other ways that dont show up statistically. Well, those other ways are NOT what the major problem people have with steroids users. Its the stats.

People hate steroid users because they think it allows players to hit homeruns. Then as soon as statistical evidence is shown that steroids dont necessarily help as much as the common assumption, then the argument shifts to recovery time.

I know recovery time is related to being able to stay on the field, but that is NOT what the overwhelming majority of baseball fans have issues with when it comes to steroid use.

 

[freddie black]

Tampa's starters during this run have been downright dirty.

 

[jewbacca]

Tampa's starters during this run have been downright dirty.

Yawn. The only good teams they've played in that stretch are the Red Sox and Tigers. They've beat up on the Blue Jays, Astros, White Sox, Yankees, and Twins

Still great numbers though.

 

[jewbacca]

:x took Darvish 123 pitches to get through 6 innings lol

Drew Stubbs is pathetic at the plate :x