2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Mets will end the season with a better record than the Yankees...any Yanks fan want to make a friendly avy bet on it 8o
 
I was up so ******g late watching that game. Then we lose and I'm so tight that I can't even go to sleep :{

Nunez was safe

:lol Mets finishing better than the Yankees.
 
I mean you guys are still way ahead of us, your acting like I'm asking for a bet when my team is ten game above.

Let's just call it an avy bet for a week during football season Pro.
 
Which teams are real, frauds?

Baseball's unofficial second half finally begins Friday night, a thankful return after a four-day stretch featuring just a single game of Major League Baseball. Teams have spent three and a half months tearing up what all the various projections and pundits had to say in April, a practice that will persist until October.




Standings projection
ZiPS projections for every team, including their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs.


ALE W L GB DIV% PLAY%
BOS 92 70 -- 57 88
TB 90 72 2 31 75
BAL 87 75 5 8 39
NYY 85 77 7 4 24
TOR 81 81 11 1 6

ALC W L GB DIV% PLAY%
DET 89 73 -- 78 82
CLE 85 77 4 22 31
KC 77 85 12
 
worldbeefreeg said:
I mean you guys are still way ahead of us, your acting like I'm asking for a bet when my team is ten game above.

Let's just call it an avy bet for a week during football season Pro.
Click to expand...

I hear you.

Sounds good! Make it a little more interesting, I'll go with +7 over the Mets to end the year.
 
for some reason it makes me angry when i see people at sporting events on their phones not paying attention
why should i care? but i can't help it, i do!
 
2013 Trade Value: Just Missed the Cut.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been preparing the 2013 version of my annual Trade Value list, a project I’ve been doing since 2005 after borrowing the idea from Bill Simmons. I moved the trade value list to FanGraphs in 2008, and it’s been an annual series here ever since. If you missed our retrospective on last year’s list, you can review the entire list, and the lessons we might be able to learn from those names, in this post from Friday.

Coming in a few hours, we’ll introduce the first five players — well, I guess, technically the last five, since we’re working in reverse order — and we’ll do ten players per day all week, culminating in the top five on Friday afternoon. However, before we get into the guys who made the list, I figured it would be worthwhile to do a post on the guys who just missed the cut. This was a tough list to crack, and there were a lot of high quality players who just ended up on the outside of the bubble for one reason or another.

Rather than turning all future posts into a discussion of guys who haven’t yet appeared, this post will hopefully answer some questions as to why a player won’t appear on in the rest of the series. And it isn’t because I hate your favorite team. I promise. In fact, a lot of the guys who just missed the cut are personal favorites of mine, and most of them made some previous iteration of the list before I finalized the order. But, with only 50 spots, someone had to just miss the cut. Here are the guys who didn’t quite make it.

The Last Cut

Max Scherzer

I went back and forth on Scherzer a lot. He’s developed into a legitimate #1 starter at 28-years-old, and is probably the odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young at this point. His walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and he’s even pitching deeper into games now that he’s become more efficient with his pitches. There’s nothing to not like here.

Except for his remaining years of team control. Or year, really. Unless the Tigers can get him signed to a now very pricey contract extension, Scherzer will be a free agent after the 2014 season. Teams would absolutely love to acquire Scherzer, and they’d pay through the nose to get him, but the trade returns of previous players traded with just a year and change left on their deals isn’t so great. As free agency grows this close, teams begin to balk at surrendering elite young talent for what amounts to a slightly longer term rental.

Scherzer’s dominant 2013 season is going to put him in the catbird seat this winter. He’ll either be able to extract a mint from the Tigers, or he’ll be just one year away from hitting the open market. And that would be enough to scare teams off from trading any of the 50 guys who will appear on the list for him. As good as Scherzer is, the looming free agency would do a serious number on his trade value, and pushes him just off the list.

The Infielders Who May or May Not Hit

Brett Lawrie, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Iglesias, Didi Gregorius, Everth Cabrera, Brandon Crawford, Howie Kendrick, Jedd Gyorko

This is a mixture of different kinds of players, but in the end, I couldn’t convince myself that any of them were definitely going to hit well enough going forward to be consistent impact players in the future. All of them have shown the potential to be terrific all-around players, playing skill positions while also contributing offensively, sometimes in a big way. A few of them are among the absolute best defensive players in the game, and don’t even need to be good hitters in order to be fantastically valuable.

But, as I noted on Friday, this is the kind of player that I was probably a little too aggressive in ranking a year ago. Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, and Alcides Escobar were all representatives of this “they’re great if they hit” group last summer, and since that list was published, we’ve seen all three really struggle at the plate.

These guys are mostly high floor, low risk players because of what they can do to help a team win even when the offense isn’t there, but the future of their offensive performance is really what would drive them to be high value players, and in each case, it’s a question that hasn’t been fully answered yet. I’d imagine that several of these players will keep hitting well over the next year and prove they belonged all along, but picking out which ones will hit and which ones won’t is not an easy job. There’s a lot of valuable players here, but there’s offensive question marks as well, and I think those questions would — for now — limit their value until the track record is a little bit stronger.

The Under-Powered Corners

Freddie Freeman, Alex Gordon, Kyle Seager

These guys are very good players who probably would have made the list if they had accumulated their value in a different manner. They’re all valuable assets, but they each play a corner position, and they get a lot of their value from non-HR events. The traditional mindsets about power at the corners is still pervasive in many front offices, and teams are less interested in giving up value for doubles, walks, and defense from a position where they’ve been trained to look for long balls.

Eventually, these predetermined roles for positions will fade away, and players will just be viewed for their overall contribution rather than how well they conform to a mold, but trade value reflects the market as it is, and the market still puts a significant premium on power. Freeman and Seager are young enough to think that perhaps they might develop more as they get older — and to be fair to Seager, he’s already showing more home run ability in the first half of 2013 — but I can’t quite see them getting commanding a king’s ransom with their current set of skills, even as those skills make them very good players.

Get On Base, Then We’ll Talk

Domonic Brown, Adam Jones, Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes

Just because the market values power doesn’t mean it doesn’t penalize you for making a lot of outs. These are four of the most dynamic outfielders in the game from a tools perspective, and each of them have shown tremendous raw power. It’s easy to dream about what all of them could be. It is hard to overlook what each of them is at the moment, and that is a power hitter who simply doesn’t get on base enough to truly be an elite offensive force.

As a center fielder, Jones doesn’t have to be a top notch hitter, but defensive metrics have never loved his defense and he’s only getting older. Given that he now has a pretty nice paycheck, the bar is higher for Jones than others, and offensively, he’s not quite clearing it.

Brown, Bruce, and Cespedes are cheaper, but come with their own warts. Brown’s big league track record is very short, and as a corner outfielder, his .320 OBP doesn’t cut it. Bruce, now 26-years-old, hasn’t really improved in the last four years, and is starting to reach the stage where he looks like he is what he is. Cespedes has regressed from his dynamite rookie season, and only has two years left on his contract before he hits free agency, as he negotiated an early out in order to sign with the A’s. Teams would love to have any of these four players, but their various warts push them just outside the top 50.

Pitchers Give Me Trust Issues

Jordan Zimmermann, Derek Holland, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Minor, Doug Fister

These guys are terrific young pitchers. They’ve all pitched at near-ace level for a while now. But man, pitchers. They get hurt. Their stuff goes away. They forget how to throw strikes. They’re all one pitch away from being worthless. The house is sparkly, but the foundation is grains of sand held together by leftover Elmer’s glue. I’d love to have all of them, but I don’t trust any of them as long term building blocks, and I think Major League teams would rather not pay a premium for not-quite-elite pitchers either.

I Have No Idea What To Do With You

Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp

Last year, these guys ranked #6 and #7 respectively; this year, I’m not putting either one in the Top 50. I’m sure there are teams out there who would gamble on Braun avoiding suspension and Kemp’s shoulder healing, but I have no idea what they’d pay in order to take those risks, especially considering that both of them have over $100 million in future commitments still coming their way.

Maybe in a year, BioGenesis will be behind us and Kemp will look like an MVP again, and omitting two of the game’s premier talents will look stupid. Right now, though, I just can’t imagine a Major League GM having the stones to give up serious talent in order to acquire either of these guys. It would take some kind of serious conviction that their present problems are temporary, and I just don’t know how you have that conviction from afar. So, this year, with their issues currently front and center, both fall short. What the future looks like for these two, I just don’t think we know, and given their contracts, it just seems like too much to ask a team to absorb that kind of high priced unknown.

Others Who Fell Off The List

Jered Weaver, Mike Moustakas, Justin Upton, Joey Votto, Dylan Bundy, Ian Kinsler, Mark Trumbo, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Wieters, Johnny Cueto, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Alcides Escobar, Matt Cain, Yovani Gallardo, Elvis Andrus

Votto was the only one of this group that was particularly close to making it, but since the 2012 list was published, he missed most of last season’s second half with a knee injury, has hit for less power, and had the most team friendly part of his contract expire. The rest have either had performance or injury issues over the last calendar year, or in Cano’s case, gotten so close to free agency that their trade value has been significantly diminished.

2013 Trade Value: #50 – #46.

We begin with the last five spots on the list. These guys are all excellent players, but they come with some concerns either about their contract, health, or future performance. Teams would love to have any of them, but there are reasons to think that some would hesitate or back away entirely even if these players were made available. They would have significant appeal to a few clubs, but not the broad appeal to start off a league wide bidding war. On to the list.

#50 Austin Jackson (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
26 302 10.3 % 20.5 % .280 .355 .403 .336 110 -0.8 4.7 2.0

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

While Jackson hasn’t been as good as he was a year ago, he’s still an extremely athletic 26-year-old with a pretty strong performance record. Whether he can consistently hit for enough power to be a true star remains to be seen, but his contact rate improvements have made that less of a necessity. He’s already a very good player, but there remains additional upside beyond what he’s done this season.

The two years of team control are the big stickler here, and why he just snuck onto the list. Any team trading for Jackson would get his age-27 and age-28 seasons at a legitimate discount, given that he doesn’t do the types of things that pay huge money in arbitration, and would have be acquiring the right to try and sign him long term. Without that kind of security, though, Jackson’s value is somewhat limited, but his relatively low HR/SB totals could make a multi-year deal with Jackson possible at a reasonable price.

Unless Detroit gets him to sign that kind of deal, though, this is likely Jackson’s last appearance on the Trade Value list. He’s getting closer to the point where he’d be an extended rental, and with Scott Boras as his agent, don’t expect him to pass on free agency once it gets within spitting distance. For now, though, Jackson’s combination of low salary and high performance earn him the final spot on this year’s list.


#49 Justin Verlander (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
30 126.0 8.93 3.21 42.3 % 3.50 3.23 3.64 2.6 3.0

Under Team Control Through 2019: $20 million in ’14, $28 million through ’19

This was one of the most difficult ratings of the entire list. The “What’s Wrong With Justin Verlander” narrative seems to be growing, despite the fact that his 3.23 FIP says that he’s just fine. Still, Verlander doesn’t look quite as dominant as he did the last few years, and he is a 30-year-old pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm and a huge price tag for a long time. Odds are good that the end of his current contract is going to be a bad deal.

However, we cannot just overlook Verlander’s remarkable amount of present value. Even at $20 million next year, he’ll be significantly underpaid, and the value of a legitimate #1 starter remains extremely high given that those players just don’t make it to free agency anymore. There are a lot of teams who wouldn’t be able to carry Verlander’s salary, but there are enough high revenue clubs that could to start a bidding war if the Tigers decided to make him available.

Long term contracts for pitchers generally work out poorly, and Justin Verlander might be showing signs of decline. However, even during his “struggles”, he’s still among the game’s best hurlers, and his value over the next few years outweighs the potential albatross nature of his deal at the back end. With money flowing into the game, teams can afford to pay the best players in the game, and Verlander remains a difference maker.


#48 Adrian Beltre (3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
34 399 5.5 % 10.5 % .316 .358 .543 .386 140 0.7 -1.9 3.3

Under Team Control Through 2016: $17 million, $18 million, $16 million voidable option

It’s easy to still think of Beltre as a glove first third baseman who also hits sometimes, but since the start of the 2010 season, he has a 139 wRC+, good for 12th best in all of baseball. That’s a better mark that Giancarlo Stanton has put up during the same stretch, if you want some context. Beltre has developed into one of the best hitters in the sport, but it hasn’t come at the cost of the rest of his value. As an all around player, Beltre has few peers, combining MVP level offense with stellar defense at third base.

If he was younger or cheaper, he’d probably be in the top 10, but this ranking reflects the reality that he is 34-years-old and due either $35 million over the next two seasons or $51 million over the next three. For his level of production, the price is still a huge steal, but there aren’t a lot of players that can maintain +6 WAR paces into their mid-30s, and Beltre should probably be expected to slow down in the not too distant future.

However, the contract isn’t so expensive or so long that it would prohibit a team from acquiring a true star who would represent a monstrous upgrade in the present. Beltre might not have as much long term value as everyone else on this list, but his short term value is immense, and would require a significant bidding war to get him from the Rangers.


#47 David Price (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
27 80.0 7.54 1.58 48.1 % 3.94 3.45 3.37 0.5 1.5

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

Last year, Justin Upton was the guy on the list that we all knew was going to get traded, testing the market for his skills. This year, Price is that guy, as he’s very likely to be moved this winter, as his arbitration payout will price him out of the Rays budget. So, we’re going to find out in a few months exactly what Price’s trade value actually is.

My guess is that the price is going to be extremely high. Price’s mid-season DL stint hurt him somewhat, and his rapidly escalating arbitration payouts thanks to Super Two status have already made him expensive, but for a risk averse team that wants a #1 starter and doesn’t want to commit a couple hundred million to get one, Price might be a very enticing option.

At probably something in the neighborhood of $35 million in arbitration payouts before he hits free agency, Price isn’t low cost, but he’s easily capable of providing a lot of value beyond those salaries before he hits the open market. The question will be how whether a team is willing to bet big on a premium arm who both spent time on the DL and showed significant velocity loss. How he pitches in the second half may go a long way to establishing his trade value, but we don’t have the luxury of knowing how that’s going to turn out at this point.

So, for now, Price slots in towards the bottom of the list. There are red flags here, but there’s also a ton of upside. The trade market for him should be fascinating.


#46 Desmond Jennings (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
26 399 9.0 % 18.3 % .267 .335 .449 .341 119 -2.3 3.8 2.7

Under Team Control Through 2017: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Jennings might be the quietest star player in baseball. After spending his first few years playing next to B.J. Upton, he’s now taken over center field full time, and he continues to progress as a hitter at the same time. While he falls into the category of guys with somewhat mixed offensive track records, he’s over 1,000 plate appearances of above average offense and hasn’t yet turned 27-years-old.

The contract is a significant part of his value as well. He’s still got another year of league minimum play, as the Rays kept him in the minors long enough that he should avoid Super Two status, and then he has three arbitration years to go before he gets to free agency. That leaves Jennings with four low cost seasons, coming from ages 27-30, as a terrific athlete who is showing real offensive promise.

There’s enough variance in his game that he could go either direction on this list. The upside is there for him to turn into Andrew McCutchen Lite and be among the most valuable players in the game. If the power disappears again, he might end up in the pile of +3 WAR players just on the outside looking in. But, the speed and defense aren’t going anywhere any time soon, and Jennings athleticism gives him enough of a boost to get him onto the back end of the list. Where he’ll be in a year depends on how much of his current power he can sustain.


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2013 Trade Value: #45 – #41.

We continue on with the 2013 Trade Value list, starting out with a pretty safe bet for short term value, then moving on to four high risk/high reward players who could either be franchise building blocks or reminders of the unpredictability of developing talent. At this part of the list, there are trade-offs to be made, and each of these players comes with some flaws, but enough value to demand a serious haul in order to even make their current teams consider parting ways with this kind of talent.


#45 Edwin Encarnacion (3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
30 399 11.5 % 11.3 % .264 .353 .532 .380 140 -1.2 1.4 2.7

Under Team Control Through 2016: $9 million, $10 million, $10 million option

Encarnacion’s breakout 2012 season has carried over into 2013, as the Blue Jays first baseman has proven himself as one of the game’s premier power hitters, and has actually even lowered his strikeout rate again this season. Encarnacion’s combination of power and contact are extremely rare, and serve to make him a highly valuable player even though he’s a defensive liability who doesn’t do much besides hit.

There are other good sluggers who won’t be on this list, though. Encarnacion is here primarily because of the Blue Jays decision to lock him up last summer. That contract has turned out to be a fantastic decision, and even after this season, the Blue Jays will still control his rights for three more years at a total cost of $29 million. Guys who signed similar contracts as free agents last winter: Cody Ross, Jeremy Guthrie, Jonathan Broxton. Yeah, I think Encarnacion is underpaid.

His skillset isn’t one that generally ages that well, and his success record is still on the shorter side, but Encarnacion is an elite slugger in his prime signed to an absurdly team friendly deal. He might not be a household name, but there aren’t many players in baseball providing this kind of power at a reasonable cost.


#44 Anthony Rendon (2B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 177 7.3 % 18.1 % .301 .352 .460 .354 127 -1.3 0.5 1.1

Under Team Control Through 2019: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

On upside, Rendon could probably be in the top ten. So far, he’s showing signs that he can make a successful conversion to second base, and his bat could be really special relative to other second baseman. The Nationals control his rights for six more seasons after this one, including several at the league minimum. He’s a quality performer with the chance to become a star.

But, at the same time, the track record is just too short to promote him any higher. The injury questions that haunted him in college followed him to the minors, and he’ll need to play 150 games for several years in a row before we know whether he can actually hold up to that kind of schedule. Moving him to second base might exacerbate his health issues, so there’s an argument to be made that the value added from the position change could also be a detriment long term.

Rendon is a big risk/big reward guy, and that’s why he’s near the bottom of the list. In a year, he’ll probably either be much higher or not on the list, depending on how his first full year as a big leaguer goes. If he stays at second base and avoids the DL, he might just end up in the top 10, but that’s hardly a given, and the unpredictability limits his trade value, despite the obvious upside.


#43 Jason Heyward (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 289 10.4 % 17.0 % .227 .324 .371 .312 98 9.3 0.6 1.6

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

Last year, I put Heyward at #9, as he reminded everyone of the player he could be, and again looked like a star in the making. He’s followed up a fantastic all around season by once again losing his power stroke, and while he’s just 23, the inconsistency is doing a number on his value. There’s only so long that teams will keep paying for potential, and his dwindling years of team control exacerbate the problem.

Despite his youth, the Braves only control Heyward’s rights for two more seasons after this one. He may very well bounce back and once again show that he can be a franchise building block, but by the time he put his inconsistency behind him, he’d be a free agent. Right now, Heyward finds himself in the slightly awkward position where both his present value and his future value have been diminished.

All that said, we’re still talking about a 23-year-old who already has accumulated +15 WAR in his career, and projects as a +4 win player going forward. Guys who can hit Major League pitching their early twenties often go on to become superstars. Heyward’s defense and baserunning give him a high floor even if the bat never does develop the way it looked like it might have earlier on, and if it does, then he’s got a shot at being one of the most complete players in the sport. But there’s just so many ifs here. Heyward would be a popular trade choice, but he probably wouldn’t be anyone’s first choice, either for winning now or winning later.


#42 Jean Segura (SS)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 397 4.3 % 12.1 % .325 .363 .487 .367 134 -2.4 0.8 3.2

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

I will openly admit to having some hesitation about this rating. Segura’s first half bears some pretty strong resemblances to what Alcides Escobar did in the first half last year, earning his way onto the bottom of the list before he decided to remind us that he’s kind of a terrible hitter. Segura has more power than Escobar, but his defensive reputation isn’t as strong, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if he fell apart in the second half, making this ranking look silly in retrospect.

But, if you haven’t looked around at the current crop of shortstops lately, it’s not a very pretty sight. There just aren’t that many guys who can play the position and provide significant offensive value, and while Segura’s track record basically boils down to two good months at this point, he looks like the rare young shortstop who can hit.

And, as with all players with his experience level, the price is right. He’s got two more league minimum years before he gets to arbitration, and the Brewers control his rights for five more seasons after one. If Segura establishes himself as one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, he’s going to be absurdly valuable based on his production and cost. It’s not a sure thing, but given the lack of quality offensive shortstops in baseball right now, there’d be a long line to take a shot at Segura if the Brewers put him on the block.


#41 Jeff Samardzija (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
28 124.0 9.29 3.19 47.4 % 4.06 3.62 3.38 1.1 1.9

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

By ERA, Jeff Samardzija has been pretty average this year, and hasn’t really established himself as a true front line pitcher. By metrics other than ERA, Samardzija is one of the best power pitchers in baseball. If the Cubs decided to sell on Samardzija, there would certainly be some teams scared off by the runs he’s allowed, but there’d be a long line ready to make him their future ace as well.

Samardzija’s a bit older than most of the guys without long track records of success, but his football background gives him a bit of a pass, and age isn’t as important for pitchers as it is for hitters. Samardzija’s been very good since his fastball started sitting in the mid-90s, and he’s posted identical 3.38 xFIPs over the last two years. There are a lot of reasons for optimism about his future.

Like Price, he’s an arbitration eligible pitcher only under control for two more years after this season. Unlike Price, though, his arbitration payouts are fairly modest, and his inflated ERA may just help them stay that way. Samardzija’s lack of accolades should help keep an extension cost out of the stratosphere, and acquiring him now in order to buy out his free agent years at a discount wouldn’t be a bad strategy. Of course, that’s also why the Cubs won’t trade him.


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2013 Trade Value: #40 – #36.

We move away from high salary, high risk players into a group of players on the opposite end of the spectrum. While the players below might not be seen as superstars yet, they all possess significant potential and have some very appealing contracts.



#40 Allen Craig (1B/OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
28 381 5.5 % 16.8 % .333 .378 .494 .378 145 0.1 -5.7 2.1

Under Team Control Through 2018: $3 million, $6 million, $9 million, $11 million, $13 million option

Allen Craig is perhaps one of the least exciting good players on the list. He just turned 28, so he’s not exactly brimming with youth. From a tools perspective, he’s somewhat lacking, and will never be mistaken for an Olympic athlete. He’s a first baseman who occasionally plays the outfield, and isn’t all that great at either spot. He’s not a good baserunner, and he has a history of health problems.

But Allen Craig can really hit. In just over 1,200 big league plate appearances, he has a career .310/.357/.508 mark, good for a 138 wRC+. While you could make a case that he falls into the underpowered corner profile, given that a lot of his extra base hits are doubles and not home runs, Craig makes up for the lack of dingers by hitting for a very high average. He’s not a pure slugger, but the game is low on guys who can hit .300 and while slugging .500, and Craig is one of the best at this kind of combination.

What puts him in the Top 50, however, is his contract. Because he was a late bloomer, the Cardinals basically controlled his entire prime, and then bought out his arbitration years in order to get an option on a free agent year at a discounted price. If they end up picking the option, the remainder of his contract will work out to $41 million over five years; if they don’t, it’s $28 million for four.

Getting this kind of offensive production at that price, through his prime years, makes Craig a very valuable piece. While he might not be the most thrilling player in the league, he is one of the most productive, and his low salary would make him a fit for every team in the league.


#39 Carlos Santana (C)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 361 14.7 % 17.7 % .275 .382 .466 .367 137 -10.1 -2.8 1.7

Under Team Control Through 2017: $4 million, $6 million, $9 million, $12 million option

There’s a decent argument to be made that Carlos Santana should not be considered a catcher, for the purposes of a list like this. Whether it’s controlling the running game, blocking pitches in the dirt, or pitch framing, Santana regularly rates as one of the worst defenders in the sport, and he’s only getting older. There’s a point at which a catcher is giving back on defense all of the value he gets from position scarcity, and Santana is probably pretty close to that point.

But here’s the good news; even if he’s not viewed as a catcher, Santana is still good enough to be a legitimate building block. At age-27, Santana’s finally showing what kind of hitter he can be when he posts a relatively normal BABIP. For his career, even with a lower than average BABIP, he’s got a 125 wRC+, and that’s while spending most of his games crouched behind the plate. History shows a pretty significant offensive penalty for players who catch, and moving Santana to first base mostly full time may very well allow him to sustain numbers even better than he’s posted so far.

And, like with Craig, the contract is a large part of his value. Including the team option, the Indians control his rights for four more years at a grand total of $30 million; if something goes wrong and they end up declining the option, they’re only on the hook for $18 million over three years. Santana is just now entering his prime, is making the kind of salary you generally expect from a part-time role player, and is already one of the best switch-hitters in baseball. He has the bat to move off catcher and still be highly productive, and at his price, is one of the best return on investments in the sport.


#38 Wil Myers (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
22 112 5.4 % 25.9 % .288 .321 .413 .316 103 0.9 0.9 0.5

Under Team Control Through 2019: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

The fact that Wil Myers was traded, with other prospects, for James Shields and Wade Davis a few months back could be taken as a sign that this is too aggressive of a ranking for a kid with no real Major League track record and some legitimate concern about his future contact rates. If he develops into the next Jay Bruce, is it worth putting him this high when I left off the original Jay Bruce?

I think it is, because we can’t overlook the tremendous value that a player provides during his first few seasons in the big leagues. Wil Myers, right now, is probably something close to a Major League average player, and he’s making the league minimum. He’ll make something close to that next year too, and the year after that, and the year after that, since the Rays kept him in the minors long enough to avoid Super Two qualification. And then he’ll have three more years of team control at arbitration prices.

6+ years of a player, three of them at about as a low of a price as you can pay to fill a roster spot. Myers doesn’t have to be a star in order to justify this ranking, as the quantity of production he’s going to provide for such a low cost has significant value in and of itself. Teams pay a lot of money for average players, and having a stock of pre-arb players like Myers is how the Rays continue to win on small payrolls.

And of course, Myers might very well develop into a very good player. He swings and misses a lot, but he also has a lot of power, and that combination can add up to a lot of value as long as he doesn’t swing and miss so often that it cancels out the power. Toss in some defensive ability and there’s certainly All-Star potential. If he lives up to it, he’ll move up the list in a hurry. If he doesn’t, though, that’s okay, because just having a solid contributor making nothing for multiple years has a lot of value in and of itself.


#37 Anthony Rizzo (1B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 396 10.4 % 17.9 % .241 .328 .441 .333 108 5.6 0.4 1.5

Under Team Control Through 2021: $1M, $5M, $5M, $7M, $7M, $11M, $15M option, $15M option

So far, Anthony Rizzo has not been a particularly great Major League player. He’s a slow-footed first baseman with a career wRC+ of 103 in nearly 1,000 plate appearances, and he hasn’t taken a step forward yet this year. However, there is a lot of reason for optimism.

For starters, there’s the fact that he’s just 23. He got to the big leagues young, and has held his own despite the fact that his peers were still toiling away in the minors. He’s also shown some serious power, as 42% of his career hits have gone for extra bases, and that has risen to 50% this year. The doubles haven’t yet turned into home runs, but given his age, there are plenty of reasons to think that they will.

Both ZIPS and Steamer project him to improve in the second half, and he’s basically a small power spike and a slightly higher BABIP away from being one of the better hitters in baseball. Given normal development, Rizzo looks to be on course to turn into an offensive force. It’s not a guarantee, of course, but he’s showing all the signs of being an offensive machine, and it may happen in the very near future.

If it does, the Cubs won’t have to worry about his price soaring, because they preemptively locked him up to a seven year contract that gave them two team options, so even after this season, they’ll control his rights for eight more years. If they pick up his options, their total cost will be somewhere around $65 million depending on incentives; if they don’t, they’re only out $40 million, and still would have gotten seven years of production for that money.

The upside here is enormous. If Rizzo becomes a franchise first baseman, the Cubs will have massive cost savings, and there’s not that much downside as long as he stays healthy. It’s a lot of projection and not as much present value, but for a team looking long term, Rizzo is one of the game’s best values.


#36 Salvador Perez (C)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 299 3.7 % 12.7 % .284 .314 .396 .311 93 1.3 -1.2 1.4

Under Team Control Through 2019: $2M, $2M, $2M, $4M option, $5M option, $6M option

Perez is in the midst of his worst offensive season, as his power has regressed back closer to where it was in the minor leagues, and since he’s an extremely aggressive hitter, he needs to drive the ball to be successful. However, Perez is not the kind of player who has to hit to be an asset.

Perez is, by most accounts, an excellent defensive catcher. He has a very strong arm, is far more agile than most behind the plate, and comparisons to Yadier Molina have been made. That’s unfair to the kid, but certainly, it speaks to his skills as a receiver. Unlike with many other young catchers, we’re not counting down the days until Perez moves to an easier position to save his knees. He’s almost certainly going to be a catcher for the duration of his career.

And because the Royals signed him so early in his career, most of that career will likely be spent in Kansas City. The salaries are significantly deflated because the Royals locked him up so early into his career, but the real value lies in the three team options. If he develops into a true two-way force behind the plate, the Royals will have him at backup catcher prices during his most productive years. If his career gets sidetracked by injuries or the bat stagnates, the Royals aren’t committed to paying him any real money.

He’s perhaps the lowest risk player on this list, simply because of the prices he’s agreed to play for over the next six years. If he develops, he’s a massive steal. If he doesn’t, then he’s still a very useful big leaguer making hardly any money. His floor is exceptionally high, and while his ceiling might be debatable, he’s similar to Myers in that he doesn’t really have to improve to be a big time asset. If he does hit, this ranking is way too low.


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2013 Trade Value: #35 – #31.

As we get towards the middle of the pack, we start to find players who have been among baseball’s best performers in 2013. While the last section was littered with potential, this section is more about realized potential, at least in 2013. These guys are highly talented players having terrific seasons, and as usual, their contract status is also adding value.



#35 Jose Bautista (3B/OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
32 390 13.1 % 17.7 % .254 .351 .493 .365 129 5.6 0.8 3.0

Under Team Control Through 2016: $14 million, $14 million, $14 million option

$14 million for a player of Bautista’s quality is a serious bargain. That said, his isolated slugging percentages for the past four years: .357, .306, .286, .239. Now 32, it’s probably unrealistic to expect Bautista to resume dominating the sport like he did a couple of years ago. He’s still a tremendous hitter, one of the best right-handed sluggers in the game, but he doesn’t appear to be other worldly anymore.

So, Bautista would be a short term value play for contenders looking to put themselves over the top. I’m not sure sure it’s a given that his 2016 option gets picked up, depending on how he ages over the next couple of years, so it’s probably best to look at this as 2/28 with the possibility of being 3/42. You’re getting elite performance for a few years at a significant discount, but there’s not a lot of long term value.

Still, if the Blue Jays did decide to blow things up and put Bautista on the block, the bidding war would get intense. He still projects as a +4 to +5 WAR player, and even mid market teams could afford his salary, giving them a shot at a legitimate star in order to make a deep playoff run. Toronto seems likely to hang onto him, but he’d be a fascinating trade chip if they did decide to get a little younger.


#34 Ian Desmond (SS)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 389 6.4 % 22.6 % .281 .328 .486 .349 122 3.9 2.8 3.5

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

Since the start of last season, Desmond has racked up +8.4 WAR, nearly three wins more than the next best shortstop; only Robinson Cano and Mike Trout have larger leads over their closest competition during that span. His error problem has basically disappeared, allowing him to solidify himself as a true shortstop, and he’s settled in as a 125 wRC+ hitter thanks to his power. His approach at the plate could use some work, but really, that’s nitpicking at a position where there aren’t any perfect players.

The downside here is the contract status, and Desmond is headed for his second round of arbitration and will be a free agent after the next two years are up. Given his recent success and the lack of quality shortstops, he’s in line for a significant payday. But, he’s just 27 now, so anyone acquiring him might still have time to get him signed to a long term deal that keeps him away from his mid-30s, and his spotty performance earlier might prove to keep his price reasonable. Still, without that kind of long term control, it’s difficult to place him any higher than this.

But during the next two years and change that the Nationals hold his rights, Desmond seems likely to be one of baseball’s most valuable pieces. A durable shortstop who can hit, and whose salaries are held down by the arbitration process, is a big time building block.


#33 Carlos Gomez (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 362 4.4 % 23.2 % .296 .338 .534 .371 136 12.3 4.0 4.6

Under Team Control Through 2016: $7 million, $8 million, $9 million

And the best decision of the year goes to Doug Melvin, for deciding to buy Gomez’s first three free agent seasons for a grand total of $24 million. Had the Brewers let him hit free agency after this kind of age-27 breakout, he’d have been looking for a $100 million deal and maybe more. Instead, they now control one of the game’s more dynamic center fielders for the price of a decent platoon player.

It should be noted that Gomez almost certainly won’t keep up his current level of production. His .354 BABIP is 51 points higher than his own career average prior to 2013, and while he’s an excellent defensive outfielder, he’s not going to keep running a UZR that grades him out as +20 runs better than the average center fielder. Regression is coming.

But even a regressed version of Carlos Gomez is still pretty terrific. ZIPS and Steamer project him as a roughly a +4 WAR player going forward, and he’s entering the years that often result in peak performance. Like Desmond, he doesn’t draw walks but does everything else well, resulting in a fantastic player even if he gets there in an unconventional manner. Toss in a contract extension that looks like one of Scott Boras’ rare misses, and Gomez is a terrific asset for the Brewers.


#32 Shelby Miller (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
22 104.2 9.63 2.49 36.7 % 2.92 3.08 3.39 2.4 2.0

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

A year ago, Shelby Miller was battling a long ball problem in Triple-A, but what he’s done in the big leagues since then has put to rest any questions about his status as one of the game’s best young pitchers. He’s only got 118 innings under his belt as a Major Leaguer, but there’s nothing to quibble with: he throws hard, has a knockout curveball, pounds the strike zone, and misses bats in the process. If you want to pick nits, you could complain about his lack of a third pitch, except his curveball works just fine as an out-pitch against both RHBs and LHBs, so there’s no large platoon split to worry about.

That he’s this low essentially reflects the risks associated with pitchers in general, and some lingering question about whether he’d be able to succeed at the same level without Yadier Molina. While no one that I’ve talked to has come right out and said that they devalue pitchers after they leave St. Louis, I have had several friends in the game mention that they think a lot of the STL pitchers benefit tremendously from Molina’s work. If a team really believes that Molina is a driving force behind that pitching staff’s success, they might be somewhat less willing to pay a premium to experiment with how well that pitcher would do throwing to another catcher.

But, of course, Miller was a very good prospect coming up through the minors, and Molina wasn’t him catching him then. I doubt he’d fall apart simply because he changed teams, and there would certainly be a line of teams that would love to see him prove this theory wrong on their squads. But, if you’re wondering why a 22-year-old who is dominating Major League hitters and comes with five more years of team control is this low, that’s basically the reason. Pitchers break, the track record is short, and the Molina factor might hurt his trade value a little bit.

Thankfully, though, he probably doesn’t have to worry about what he’d do throwing to someone else, because I don’t see any scenario where the Cardinals give him up.


#31 Starling Marte (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
24 401 3.5 % 22.2 % .291 .342 .462 .349 125 8.9 5.4 3.6

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

It’s not entirely fair to call Marte a young Carlos Gomez, but beyond Gomez’s six additional home runs, their 2013 lines look much the same. Marte opened a lot of eyes with his fantastic early season play, and give his combination of athleticism and broad base of skills, he can regress and still be a terrific player.

As with Gomez, there are concerns about his approach at the plate, and whether pitchers will start exploiting his swing-at-everything plan. Like with Gomez, a lot of his 2013 value is tied up in defensive metrics and a probably unsustainable high BABIP. I don’t want to belabor the comparison, but they are very similar types of players having the same type of season. Only with Marte, you get two additional years of team control, both at near minimum salaries.

In some ways, I think I’m underselling his value by placing him here, but on the other hand, teams have shown that they’re not as willing to pay for speed-and-defense in the corners. Marte could certainly handle a move to center field, but his defensive value isn’t going to be as appreciated while he’s playing next to Andrew McCutchen, and the things he does well aren’t quite as sexy as launching balls into the upper deck. Like many young players with this set of skills, Marte’s actual value is likely higher than his trade value.

But there are enough teams out there who would love to make Marte their center fielder that Pittsburgh would have no shortage of suitors if they decided to make him available. Which they won’t, because he’s one of the primary reasons the Pirates are finally good.


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2013 Trade Value: #30 – #26.

As we approach the middle of the list, we end up with a group of young players who are mostly more about future value than present production. These are some of the very best players in the game, and this is about as high as a player can rank without establishing himself as a big leaguer.



#30 Matt Moore (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
24 107.1 9.06 4.61 38.0 % 3.44 3.67 4.26 2.2 1.7

Under Team Control Through 2019: $1M, $3M, $5M, $7M option, $9M option, $10M option

Moore hasn’t had a big breakthrough yet, as his command still comes and goes, making him more of a good pitcher than a great one. Perhaps most disconcerting is the velocity loss, as he’s sitting closer to 92 than the 94 he was at a year ago, though it hasn’t yet made him worse. Still, you’d like to see improvement in command in order to offset the normal degradation in stuff, and Moore’s command hasn’t yet improved.

But, that contract is still so friendly that Moore would be a highly coveted asset in trade. In a worst case scenario where he gets injured or falls apart, they’d be out just $13 million after three years, having paid the buyouts on all of his options. More likely, those are all exercised, and he ends up earning $35 million over the next six years.

Soon enough, though, Moore is going to have to start throwing strikes. As the stuff erodes, it will get harder and harder to compensate for all the walks, and the cheap years are going to start disappearing sooner than later. Moore is at a spot where he’s either going to become the ace that he was projected as, or he’s going to settle in as a quality starter on a solid contract, but not one that teams are willing to try and build around. Where he goes from here remains to be seen.


#29 Xander Bogaerts (SS)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 378 95 12 13 50 72 7 .294 .390 .489 .396

Under Team Control For Six Years: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Despite not yet reaching the big leagues, Bogaerts is already one of the most coveted players in the game. With most prospects, you can point to some kind of glaring hole that would keep them from producing in the Majors, but Bogaerts doesn’t really have that. His defense at shortstop has improved, and it’s no longer a given he’ll have to move to third base. He has more present power than you’d expect from a 20-year-old middle infielder. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the strike zone, and will take a walk when it is offered to him. He’s hit at every level despite being much younger than his peers.

Major League teams covet cost controlled franchise players more than anything else, and that’s exactly what Bogerts projects to be, and fairly soon. He’s a prospect in the sense that he doesn’t have a big league track record yet, but it’s not clear that he needs much more time in the minors, and his combination of offensive skills and ability to play defense are likely to make him a quality player in the very near future, with MVP upside as he continues to develop.

The Red Sox aren’t going to trade him, but he’s the kind of chip that would open the door to acquiring the best players in the game. Expect Boston to keep him and make the foundation of their future instead.


#28 Byron Buxton (OF)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 392 112 17 9 49 69 35 .333 .416 .530 .427

Under Team Control For Six Years: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

While my own biases would probably lead to a preference of Bogaerts over Buxton, consensus within the prospect community and team officials is that Buxton is the #1 prospect in the sport, with his crazy athleticism making up for the fact that he’s a couple of years away from contributing at the big league level. His utter domination of the Midwest League showed that he was more advanced than expected after being drafted out of high school, and while he’s got a long ways to go, there’s no question that he has superstar potential.

There’s probably a bit more risk here than with Bogaerts, though. Not just in proximity to the big leagues, as more problems can become apparent as he rises through the system, but there’s a pretty long line of super toolsy center field prospects who never amounted to much. Center field is becoming something of an offensive position, and the offensive bar is higher at this up-the-middle spot than any of the other three. Having the physical skills to handle center field is great, but Buxton’s going to have to hit to live up to the hype, and projecting how well a guy like this will hit when he’s a 19-year-old in A-ball is difficult.

But, the upside is simply too high to ignore. If he hits, he’s in the conversation for best player in the game, and he hasn’t given any reason to think that he won’t hit, at least not yet. He’s a very high risk/high reward asset for this high on the list, but the reward is high enough to justify it.


#27 Jason Kipnis (2B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
26 374 12.0 % 22.2 % .301 .383 .514 .385 149 -4.6 1.9 3.4

Under Team Control Through 2017: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Kipnis’ next extra base hit will make his 2013 total equal to his 2012 total. The power surge has taken his game up a notch, and was really the missing ingredient in his overall package of skills. If he can keep driving the ball the way he has been, he’ll settle in as a perennial All-Star.

And yet, he’s two spots lower on this list than he was a year ago. How does a player fall on the trade value list while having a breakout year? This is the nature of depreciating years of team control. Since last year’s list, he’s lost one year of league minimum control, and so the Indians have essentially banked a huge premium in his performance over the last year. That’s value that was transferred from Kipnis to the team, and can’t be acquired by another team. Even as players improve, their trade value diminishes as they march closer towards free agency.

Really, just holding his ground is a pretty big accomplishment, as most of the players around him on last year’s list found themselves much lower or off the list entirely this year. If the Indians would have been able to lock him up over the winter, taking advantage of his poor second half to get him at a discount, he might have ended up much higher.

He’s still a highly valuable player, of course, and is one of the main reasons the Indians are hanging around in the playoff race. He’s just going to cost a lot more to lock up now than he would have a few months ago.


#26 Jurickson Profar (2B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
20 155 7.7 % 19.4 % .235 .309 .346 .293 76 -1.7 -1.1 -0.2

Under Team Control Through 2019: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Because of the instant success from some other recent prospects, it seems like Profar is already being treated as a disappointment for posting a 74 wRC+ in his first 172 plate appearances. Reminder: he’s 20, and a shortstop. It is unusual for a player this age to step right in and be a good big leaguer right away. We’ve been spoiled by Trout, Harper, and Machado. What they’re doing is historically unique. Not playing at that level before you can drink does not make you a bust.

Now, there’s an argument to be made that Profar’s more of a high floor prospect than a super high ceiling guy. In some ways, he’s kind of exactly the opposite of what we expect a 20-year-old infielder to look like. He’s a disciplined hitter who controls the strike zone pretty well, but probably isn’t going to turn into a serious power bat. He’s more of a walks-and-doubles prospect than a dingers guy, but because he can play shortstop, walks-and-doubles are more acceptable for his position.

I know some teams aren’t in love with him due to the lack of superstar upside, but Profar still projects as a quality two way player, and with some patience, he could be one of the game’s better shortstops within the next few years. Of course, the enduring question is whether that future will come in Texas, as they gave Elvis Andrus a lot of money to hold down the fort in Arlington for the foreseeable future.

Because of that, Profar may have more value to other teams than he does the Rangers, and it wouldn’t be terribly shocking to see him get traded this winter. But Texas won’t let him go cheap. He’s still a terrific young talent, and one of the most valuable trade chips in the sport.


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2013 Trade Value: #25 – #21.

As we move to the top half of the list, we begin to enter the land of guys who just aren’t getting traded. It’s basically impossible to imagine a scenario where a team agrees to move any of these players. This is where we start finding franchise players on friendly contracts. They would have a lot of trade value if they were put on the market, but they’re all too valuable to their own franchises to actually be used as trade chips.



#25 Dustin Pedroia (2B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
29 432 11.8 % 11.3 % .316 .396 .436 .365 126 5.0 0.5 3.7

Under Team Control Through 2015: $10M, $11M option

Yeah, it’s only two years of team control, and Pedroia will turn 30 next year, but he’s also an elite player making a relative pittance for the next two seasons. Even as his power has diminished, Pedroia continues to maintain his performance, and his 126 wRC+ this year is actually higher than his career average. With just six home runs and a .120 ISO, you might think Pedroia is in decline, but he’s on pace to have basically the exact same season he had in 2008, when he was named AL MVP.

With the lack of long term value, I considered ranking Pedoria a little lower, but looking around baseball, there just aren’t many legitimate stars that could fit into any teams payroll and come without any real downside. Pedroia at 2/21 might be the safest bet of any player in the sport. This is the closest thing baseball has to a risk free contract.

The skillset might make him an under-the-radar star, but Major League teams know how consistently great Dustin Pedroia has been. The biggest knock might be how he would do away from Fenway, as he has mastered using The Green Monster to his benefit, and the big wall wouldn’t go with him in a trade. However, you can’t just take a player’s road stats and assume that’s how he would do in any new home environment. Players make adjustments, and if you take the Monster away from Pedroia, he’d swing differently in his new ballpark.

Of course, he’s not going to have to, because the Red Sox aren’t trading him. They know what they have, and they’re not giving it up.


#24 Yasiel Puig (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
22 161 4.3 % 22.4 % .391 .422 .616 .444 193 0.7 -1.5 2.1

Under Team Control Through 2019: $2M, $5M, $6M, $7M or Arb, $8M or Arb, Arb

From the start, I’ll say that I have no real conviction about Puig’s placement here. I could make a compelling case that he doesn’t belong on the list. I could also make a compelling case that he belongs in the top 10. There are teams that would go bananas trying to acquire him right now, and there are teams that would show little interest. Puig’s value is not cut-and-dried.

Since arriving in the big leagues, he’s been remarkably good, but he’s succeeding in a way that simply isn’t sustainable. His contact rate is worrisome, and his approach at the plate is exploitable. Take away the .472 BABIP, and what’s left is the skillset of a low OBP slugger. That may very well be what he is for the rest of the season.

But, as we acknowledge the coming regression, let’s not overlook the fact that he’s a 22-year-old who was forced to take over a year off from competitive baseball. In terms of development, most players with Puig’s background would probably be in A-ball. It’s okay that he’s not polished; it would be a miracle if he was. The physical skills are carrying him, but that’s true of pretty much every kid this age. And Puig’s physical skills look pretty special.

Complicating factors is the contract he signed with the Dodgers. It was widely reported as a seven year, $42 million deal, but that’s probably not what it’s going to end up as. That was basically the guaranteed floor, but the deal also allows Puig to opt out of the negotiated salaries and choose arbitration if he so desires. Depending on how well he performs, the 2017/2018 salaries could easily go up, though there’s no ability for the Dodgers to renegotiate those numbers down if he doesn’t perform well.

So, while Puig comes with six more years of team control, they are considerably more expensive than other rookies called up this season. His three pre-arb years will cost $12 million in total, and he’s setup for higher arbitration salaries than players coming into the system making six figures. There’s definitely clear downside here, as he comes with a real cost if the regression comes and he never adjusts. But, Puig is also a 22-year-old who is already showing MLB power and is under team control through most of the rest of the decade. He is both very risky but also very valuable.

Combining the risk and rewards, I ended up with him here, but if you think he should be 20 spots higher or lower, I won’t argue with you. This is a tough nut to crack.


#23 Adam Wainwright (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
31 146.2 7.98 0.92 47.9 % 2.45 2.23 2.75 4.4 4.6

Under Team Control Through 2018: $19.5M per year

When people talk about the best pitchers in baseball, they usually mention Verlander, Kershaw, or Felix, but Adam Wainwright belongs in that conversation, especially now that he’s just decided to stop walking opposing hitters. And Wainwright comes with one significant advantage over those three: he costs a lot less.

The Cardinals were able to get Wainwright signed to deal that will him just under $20 million per year for the next five years, while Felix and Verlander both got $25 million per year and an extra year, while Kershaw is apparently asking for an extension that tops them all. With Wainwright, you get ace production at a price less than what the aces are signing for, and while $5 million per year might not sound like a big deal, it adds up, as does the extra guaranteed year at the end.

There’s a reason Wainwright took a little less than those guys, though: Injuries. Major League teams have gotten bitten by expensive pitchers breaking down, and they’ve compensated by paying heavily for durability. There’s a significant premium placed on pitchers with clean health track records, and Wainwright has had several extended DL stints, including missing the 2011 season. It doesn’t seem to have had any lasting impact, but it’s in the file, and that would drive his price down a bit relative to those who haven’t broken down before.

He’s also going to be 32 when the contract kicks in, so while age doesn’t matter as much for pitchers, he is heading for the part of his career where we expect decline to accelerate. Thankfully for the Cardinals, Wainwright is so good that he can still be a valuable piece even when the stuff starts slowing down, and St. Louis has him at a price that he can justify even if he takes a step back.


#22 Felix Hernandez (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
27 138.2 9.09 1.69 49.9 % 2.53 2.66 2.71 4.5 4.1

Under Team Control Through 2019: $22M, $24M, $25M, $26M, $26M, $27M

Over the last year and a half, there has been a lot of talk about Hernandez’s velocity decline, as his top-end fastball has basically disappeared and he now sits in the low-90s, occasionally hitting 95 or 96. However, even with his fastball eroding, Felix is actually getting better.

He’s currently posting both the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career, and he’s settling in around that Roy Halladay sweetspot of just enough groundballs to stay efficient, but enough strikeouts to completely dominate. The idea that he was benefiting heavily from Safeco Field has been challenged, as he’s shown no ill effects from the fences being moved in and the park playing more neutral than it has since it opened.

And he’s still just 27. While he’s been around for nearly a full decade and has almost 1,800 innings pitched in his career, he’s not that much older that a lot of the young kids on this list. Even with six pretty expensive years left on his contract, the deal expires after his age-33 season. And while big expensive contracts for pitchers come with a lot of risk, Felix’s deal somewhat mitigates those risks by adding a conditional option year to the end.

If Hernandez spends 130 consecutive days on the DL due to surgery on his right elbow — basically, if he has Tommy John surgery — then a $1 million option for the 2020 season activates, and the Mariners would control his rights for one more season to make up for the year lost due to injury. Replacing a prime year with an age-34 season isn’t an exactly even swap, but it offsets some of the risks that are natural to pitchers.

The contract isn’t cheap by any stretch, but it’s a good deal for an elite franchise pitcher in the prime of his career.


#21 David Wright (3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
30 399 12.3 % 17.0 % .304 .396 .507 .389 154 3.1 4.8 4.9

Under Team Control Through 2020: $20M through 2018, $15M, $12M

Wright has rebounded from a mid-20s slump to emerge as one of the best players in the game, and the Mets were able to give him an extension that rewards him for his play without turning the deal into an albatross. While the $11 million he’s getting this year is likely to be the most valuable part of the contract, paying $20 million per year for Wright’s age 31-35 seasons is easily justifiable, and by the time he gets to 36, the salaries will be decreasing. You don’t see a lot of middle-loaded contracts like this, but it does serve to preserve some of Wright’s trade value as the contract goes along, rather than absorbing all of the value up front and leaving him overpaid at the end.

Really, the only thing keeping Wright this low is his age. We’re getting to the part of the list where the players ahead of him are also excellent and signed to reasonable or bargain contracts, but most of them are just younger. It’s not a knock against Wright himself, and there’s really nothing to complain about, as he hits, he fields, he runs, and he stays healthy. His mediocre 2011 season is mostly in the rear view mirror at this point, and he’s really a player with very few flaws.

He’s just headed for the part of his career where that is unlikely to remain true. How long he can hold off Father Time will determine whether or not he ends up in Cooperstown.


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2013 Trade Value: #20 – #16.

And now there’s a run on pitchers. Because of their inherent risks, this is getting close to the upper limit for hurlers, even though each pitcher at this point is an excellent performer and an excellent value. Oh, and there’s some hitter you might have heard something about this year too.



#20 Yu Darvish (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
26 119.1 11.84 3.09 43.9 % 3.02 3.22 2.75 3.6 3.0

Under Team Control Through 2016: $10M, $10M, $10M, $11M

The Rangers bet big on Darvish, but it’s proven to be a wise investment, as he has turned into a top shelf starting pitcher, and projects as one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next few years. His stuff is elite, his command has improved, and if he can keep the ball from flying over the fence quite as often, he’s got an outside shot at the Cy Young Award.

The Rangers might want to root for Darvish to not win that award, however. His contract contains a clause that turns the 2017 portion of his contract into a player option if he wins the Cy Young Award once and then finishes in the top four a second time. Unless Darvish blows out his arm, he would happily opt out of the last year of the deal and score a bigger paycheck in free agency.

Still, at either 3/30 or 4/41, Darvish’s contract is well below market price for a frontline starting pitcher, and doesn’t come with the long term risks that guys like Verlander or Hernandez present. The Rangers already wrote the big check to get Darvish in the first place, and any team trading for him now would get the advantage of his deflated salaries. Which, of course, is a reason why the Rangers aren’t trading him. They invested a lot to put Darvish at the front of their rotation, and now that he’s returning dividends, they’re going to keep him.



#19 Madison Bumgarner (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
23 125.0 8.78 2.45 44.0 % 3.02 3.27 3.37 2.4 1.9

Under Team Control Through 2019: $4M, $7M, $10M, $12M, $12M option, $12M option

Despite a bump in the road at the end of last season, Bumgarner has rebounded to pitch just like he always does. Perhaps the most surprising thing about him is that he’s still just 23-years-old, even though he made his Major League debut back in 2009. Bumgarner is an excellent young pitcher, but he’s this high on the list because of the contract the Giants got him to sign last year.

By striking early, the Giants got his three arbitration years for a total of about $20 million, then got his first free agent year for $11.5 million, and then options for two more free agent years at prices that will be far under the market price by the time they come into play. Given the rate of inflation in MLB, those options could end up being massive bargains.

Of course, Bumgarner is a pitcher, and he’s a pitcher who throws a ton of sliders, so there’s also a chance that those options might never get picked up. Counting on getting significant value from any pitcher in six years is a risky proposition, but the contract is structured in a way that doesn’t really gamble any significant money, while giving the team huge cost savings if Bumgarner stays healthy and keeps pitching at this level.

He might not have the raw upside of some other hurlers in the top half of this project, but his combination of consistent success and a very friendly earn him this spot in the top 20.


#18 Chris Davis (1B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 393 9.7 % 28.0 % .315 .392 .717 .458 193 -1.0 1.0 5.1

Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration

The breakout star of 2013, Davis is establishing himself as one of the game’s premier power hitters, and at age-27, he’s just now entering his prime. There’s still some uncertainty about just how much of this Davis can sustain, but there’s no reason to doubt the power, which has always been his calling card. He won’t keep slugging .700, but .600 doesn’t seem entirely out of the question, at least for the next few years.

The big question is cost. If the Orioles don’t sign him to a long term deal, Davis could be a very interesting arbitration case this winter. He’s very likely going to finish the year with 50+ home runs and he’ll be among the league leaders in RBIs, which are the kinds of numbers that arbitrators have typically awarded higher salaries to. While he’s coming off a modest $3.3 million salary, he’s going to get a big raise, and could easily blow past the $10 million mark. If he has another big season in 2014, his final arbitration payout could get near some of the highest salaries the system has ever given.

So, the Orioles have some risk-reward balancing to do. If they’re confident Davis won’t regress, locking him up now could save them a lot of money in the long term, as the Blue Jays did with Jose Bautista after his one big year. Buying high after a breakout season can seem scary, but the Orioles can use his lack of track record against him now, while they won’t be able to if he follows it with another strong season.

With just two years of team control and uncertain prices on those two years, I can’t put Davis any higher than this. However, if the Orioles can sign him to a reasonable extension and he has another big season next year, he could easily move up on next year’s list.


#17 Jose Fernandez (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
20 104.2 8.86 3.44 42.9 % 2.75 3.22 3.58 2.5 1.9

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

If it wasn’t for some other young hurler in the NL East having an okay season, you might be hearing a lot more about Fernandez this season. Playing in obscurity for the Marlins probably isn’t helping either, so in case you hadn’t noticed, Jose Fernandez has been ridiculously good. Oh, and he doesn’t turn 21 until the end of the month.

In fact, by throwing 100 innings in the big leagues as a 20-year-old, Fernandez has put himself in some pretty great company, as only 11 other pitchers in the last 30 years have even managed to throw a half season in the big leagues in their age-20 season. While you have the likes of Jeremy Bonderman, Rick Ankiel, and Ed Correa as reminders of what can go wrong, the list is mostly just really excellent pitchers.

As with all pitchers, health will be a big factor in Fernandez’s future outcomes, but if he can avoid surgery, the future looks pretty bright. Because the Marlins chose to put him on the Opening Day roster rather than hold him back for a few weeks, he’s down to five more years of team control after this one, but five years of Jose Fernandez at heavily discounted prices is still a premium asset. If the Marlins do decide to trade Giancarlo Stanton this winter, they’ll have another franchise player to take the mantle.


#16 Chris Sale (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
24 120.0 9.83 2.03 45.8 % 2.85 2.94 2.92 3.5 3.3

Under Team Control Through 2019: $4M, $6M, $9M, $12M, $13M option, $14M option

Sale is the American League’s answer to Madison Bumgarner, just with a few slight improvements. Both are tall left-handers who rely heavily on their big sweeping sliders for strikeouts, and not coincidentally, both have almost exactly the same contract. There is no question that Bumgarner’s 5/35 with two options contract was used as a template for the 5/33 with two options contract that Sale signed with the White Sox. If all the options on both contracts are exercised, the total payouts will be almost identical.

Sale ranks ahead of Bumgarner because he’s been a little bit better, especially once you factor in park and league adjustments. Instead of playing in a pitcher friendly west coast ballpark and getting easy outs from opposing pitchers, Sale has pitched in a hitter friendly midwest ballpark and run through the DH league. As a guy who has shown he can be effective against stiffer competition, and is certainly not a product of his home park, Sale would command a bit more than Bumgarner in trade, though both are excellent pitchers.

Sale’s arm problems from last summer, when he was temporarily moved to the bullpen, probably remain a bit of a drag on his value. His delivery has long brought about questions about his long term durability, and that scare reinforced preexisting beliefs that he might end up breaking down. Of course, no one really knows how to forecast future pitcher health yet, and Sale is good enough to earn his contract — and then some — in the near future.


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2013 Trade Value: #15-#11.

And herein lie the best players in the game. Okay, not all of them, but a good handful of them. These guys are absolutely fantastic players, in the primes of their careers, and signed to deals that are discounts even if they’re not exactly cheap. This is the land of superstars, and the guys who might just lead the league in present value. Their long term value isn’t quite as strong, keeping them out of the top 10, but if you want to win right now, you want one of these five on your team.


#15 Clayton Kershaw (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
25 145.1 8.61 2.17 44.8 % 1.98 2.52 3.13 5.2 3.9

Under Team Control Through 2014: Arbitration

Even last summer, I would have never considered ranking a player with 1+ year of team control this high. Even as good as Kershaw is, you can only produce so much value in 300 innings. However, with some coaxing from friends within the game, I have become convinced that the a number of clubs place a real value on exclusive negotiating rights to a player who is not set on reaching free agency. And indications are that Kershaw, while looking for a monster extension, is willing to sign a long term deal before testing the market.

Any team trading for Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t be trading for him for just one year. It would be a Johan Santana trade-and-sign situation, and the Dodgers would be compensated in prospects for the buyer’s ability to get Kershaw signed before anyone else could. Essentially, for this kind of player, I have become convinced that the market for their services is not in free agency, but is in the rush to own the rights to extend them, and in Kershaw’s case, the price to acquire those rights would be absurd.

He’s 25, and he’s like a hybrid of Felix Hernandez’s peripherals with Matt Cain’s ability to confound the norms of BABIP and HR/FB rate. There are other excellent pitchers in baseball, but Kershaw has claimed the title of the game’s best pitcher, and he doesn’t look like he’s going to give it up any time soon. If the Dodgers decide not to make him the first $200 million pitcher, you can bet that teams like the Yankees would gladly do so, and there would be enough interest in being the team to pay Kershaw a record contract that the Dodgers would reap the benefits of a serious bidding war.

More likely, though, is that the Dodgers just pay up, because if you’re going to spend $250 million to acquire the core of a disappointing failure, you should probably not then balk at spending $200 million to sign the best pitcher in the sport.



#14 Stephen Strasburg (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
24 108.1 9.06 3.07 50.9 % 2.99 3.40 3.50 1.7 1.7

Under Team Control Through 2016: Arbitration

I’ve alluded many times to the risks of expecting too much long term value from pitchers, even the very best pitchers, and Stephen Strasburg is a prime example of why. He was maybe the best pitching prospect anyone has ever seen. In his rookie season, he posted an xFIP- of 51, which is a Pedro-in-his-prime kind of silly number.

Three years and one surgery later, his xFIP- is 92. He’s still an excellent pitcher, but it’s been awhile since he looked like the best pitcher on the planet. He might not ever look like that again. Pitcher aging curves are probably not curves, but instead, diagonal lines that point downwards. It is likely that Stephen Strasburg peaked in 2010, as a rookie.

All that negativity aside, teams would still be lining up out the door if the Nationals made him available. He’s got three years of team control left at arbitration prices, and the low innings totals and lack of sexy win numbers this year will keep his price reasonable. He still throws 95, gets strikeouts and ground balls, and has an ERA of 2.99. He might be worse, but worse than historically amazing isn’t so bad.

Strasburg is both terrific and kind of disappointing at the same time. Pitchers. Don’t build your franchises around them.


#13 Troy Tulowitzki (SS)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
28 265 9.4 % 15.5 % .332 .400 .608 .425 160 4.7 -0.9 3.5

Under Team Control Through 2021: $16M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $14M, $15M option

Let’s just get this out of the way; Troy Tulowitzki is injury prone. The guy spends time on the disabled list every year. This probably isn’t going to change as he gets older and his body starts wearing down even more. But, even with the injuries, Troy Tulowitzki is a tremendous player. Assuming he can rack up a meager +1.5 WAR over the rest of the season, he’ll have posted his fourth +5 WAR season in five years, and he’s in the midst of his best season yet.

Even accounting for Colorado, Tulowitzki is just on another level for offense from the shortstop position, and he can actually play defense too. In terms of pure impact when he’s in the line-up, Tulowitzki is up there with anyone else in the game. The quantity of his playing time is occasionally a problem, but the quality dwarfs those issues.

And the remainder of his contract adds up to $145 million over eight years, assuming they exercise the team in 2021. Think about what Tulo would get as a free agent coming off a 160 wRC+ as a 28-year-old shortstop. We can point to his durability all we want, but we have to remember that Josh Hamilton — not exactly the Iron Horse himself — just got 5/125, and he had a bunch of other red flags too. And he was significantly older. And not a shortstop. And not this good of a hitter.

It might be hard to recalibrate our opinions to see 8/$145 as a massive discount, but in this case, it is. Tulowitzki is that good.


#12 Miguel Cabrera (1B/3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
30 428 14.0 % 15.0 % .365 .458 .674 .473 204 -11.9 0.7 6.0

Under Team Control Through 2015: $22M, $22M

It would actually be a fascinating experiment to put Cabrera in free agency right now, then limit teams to two year maximum offers, just to see what they kind of value they’d put on that production. I think he might $50 million per year, given the fact that there would be no long term commitment required. Miguel Cabrera is simultaneously one of the highest paid and most underpaid players in the game.

You don’t need me to tell you how ridiculous Cabrera’s numbers are. He’s followed up his MVP season by making last year look like a slump. His teammates might not be living up to the hype, but Cabrera is putting the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame peak by having one of the best offensive seasons of all time.

Cabrera is a monster, and he’s the driving force behind the Tigers chances to win the World Series. They’re not trading him now, and they’re probably not ever trading him. I don’t even know how one would go about trying to make an offer without getting laughed at. Even with a shorter term contract at fairly high prices, Cabrera is still absurdly valuable and one of the closest things MLB has to an untouchable player.


#11 Yadier Molina (C)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
30 350 6.3 % 9.4 % .341 .386 .489 .378 145 6.1 -1.5 4.2

Under Team Control Through 2017: $15M, $15M, $14M, $14M, $15M mutual option

Depending on how much you buy into The Molina Effect on STL’s pitching staff, there’s a case to be made that the Cardinals catcher might just be the best player in baseball. Even with our rudimentary defensive evaluations for backstops, ZIPS and Steamer project him as something like a +6 WAR player over a full season, and that gives him no credit for the non-throwing/blocking parts of his defense. If there’s a player in baseball that is underrated by WAR, it’s Yadier Molina, and WAR thinks Yadier Molina is awesome.

What looked like a shockingly high salary for a defensive specialist now looks like a hilarious underpay for the leading NL MVP candidate. If he’s not the best defensive player, he’s close, and he happens to be putting up a 145 wRC+ this year, which is higher than Mike Piazza’s career wRC+ of 140. I don’t know how long he can keep this up, but Molina is currently in the midst of one of the great stretches of catcher performance in baseball history.

That said, he is 30, and he’s carried an extremely heavy workload throughout his career, and his knees are already starting to hurt. The final four years of his contract take him through his age-34 season, and at some point, his body is going to say enough already. Molina probably won’t be an MVP candidate when this deal ends.

But the present value is just so high that it doesn’t matter much. Every team in baseball — except San Francisco — would tie themselves in knots in order to get him behind the plate, and the Giants might just do it for the fun of having the two best catchers in the game at the same time. Molina is a legitimate difference maker at a position that has few of them.


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2013 Trade Value: The Top 10.

And now we come to the best of the best. These guys are both the present and the future of the sport. They’re great now, they’re going to be great for a while, and they’re the kinds of players that we’ll be telling our grandkids about.



#10 Carlos Gonzalez (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 395 9.6 % 26.6 % .302 .370 .610 .414 153 5.2 4.9 4.5

Under Team Control Through 2017: $11M, $16M, $17M, $20M

A few years ago, in one of the least prescient things I’ve ever published, I wondered whether the Rockies squandered a lot of money by signing Gonzalez to a seven year, $80 million extension. He was coming off one good year, had been traded multiple times before, didn’t control the strike zone particularly well, and looked like a pretty strong regression candidate.

Gonzalez did regress, but the rest of what I wrote was really wildly wrong. Salaries in baseball have exploded, and at age-27, Gonzalez is once again looking like a superstar. Yeah, Colorado makes his numbers look better, but he’s still running a 153 wRC+ even after we strip out the effects of Coors Field. He still strikes out a lot, but the power has reached a level where they don’t matter so much, and he’s refined the rest of his game to add value even when he’s not hitting the ball over the wall.

Gonzalez only has one more “cheap” year left on the deal before his salaries escalate, but even at an AAV of $16 million per year over the remaining four years on the deal, he’s still a huge bargain. Those four years cover his prime seasons, leaving little chance for dead money, especially given the prices teams are paying for power hitters at this level now. Gonzalez’s inconsistency and injury history makes him imperfect, but he’s still a terrific player signed to a deal that pays him a fraction of his market value.


#9 Paul Goldschmidt (1B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
25 406 12.1 % 20.2 % .313 .395 .557 .405 157 6.2 1.7 4.2

Under Team Control Through 2019: $1M, $3M, $6M, $9M, $11M, $15M option

A couple of years ago, Goldschmidt was considered something of a fringe prospect, a guy who was interesting but had limited upside. Baseball America never ranked him higher than 11th in the Diamondbacks Top 30, so he wasn’t even considered a premium prospect within their organization, much less baseball overall.

Yeah, I think we missed the boat here. 1,200 plate appearances into his career and Goldschmidt has a 135 wRC+, and he’s athletic enough to add value with both his glove and his legs. If he keeps hitting like he has so far this year, he’s going to get first place MVP votes at the end of the year. Oh, and he’s going to make a million bucks next year.

If the Brewers decision to sign Carlos Gomez this spring was the best decision of the year, extending Goldschmidt before he had this breakout ranks a close second. They now own his rights for six years, and none of the five guaranteed years are going to cost them any real money. Even if Goldschmidt regresses, this is still a pittance for he’s likely to be. And if he doesn’t regress, this might turn into the best contract in baseball.

I don’t know precisely how Goldschmidt went from being a mediocre prospect to an elite hitter, but it happened, and now the Diamondbacks have one of the best first baseman in baseball signed through his age-31 season for just a little bit more than Alex Rodriguez will make this year alone. Buying power on the open market is crazy expensive, but the Diamondbacks aren’t going to have to worry about doing that for a while.


#8 Giancarlo Stanton (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
23 224 13.4 % 26.3 % .250 .357 .458 .357 128 -3.9 -0.6 0.7

Under Team Control Through 2016: Arbitration

If David Price is the player on this list most likely to be traded, Stanton isn’t that far behind. The price that the Marlins are able to extract for their star right fielder is going to be fascinating. A couple of months on the DL with a bad knee and the dissipation of an extra year of team control have hurt his value, but he’s still perhaps the game’s most exciting young slugger. He’s 23 and has a career wRC+ of 138. The players who have done what Stanton has done at this age are mostly in the Hall of Fame.

In some ways, his situation is pretty reminiscent of Miguel Cabrera, and not just because they both came up in Miami. Cabrera was absurdly great early, then saw his stock fall slightly as he got closer to free agency and concerns about his durability arose. The Tigers swooped in, signed him to a long term deal, and you know the rest. There’s a real chance that something similar could happen with Stanton.

Yes, right now, he’s only got three years of team control remaining, but a team acquiring him is acquiring him for the right to lock him up, and his cost is going to reflect that right. Franchise players like this aren’t available in their early-20s very often, and even coming off a down year and somewhat concerning knee issues, the price is going to reflect the rarity of a player like this on this on the trade market.

Stanton is going to bring back a mint when the Marlins trade him. The price is probably going to blow us all away.


#7 Matt Harvey (P)



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Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
24 130.0 10.18 1.94 45.4 % 2.35 2.17 2.70 4.3 4.2

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Contract included, Matt Harvey is the most valuable pitcher in baseball. Just 24, he’s already turned into a legitimate ace, succeeding in every possible aspect you could think to measure. His velocity is trending up, not down. He doesn’t walk anyone. He strikes out everyone. His FIP is actually better than his ERA, which is hilarious considering that his ERA is 2.35. He’s been better against lefties than righties. He’s efficient. There are no nits to pick here. This is pretty close to the perfect young pitcher season.

But he is still a pitcher, and it could all go terribly wrong tomorrow. Mets fans don’t need a reminder about the risks of young pitching. Baseball fans, really, don’t need that reminder either. Before there was Matt Harvey, there was Stephen Strasburg. Before Strasburg, Mark Prior. Before Prior, Rick Ankiel. Before Ankiel, Dwight Gooden. These stories don’t always end as well as they start. They usually don’t end as well as they start.

But there’s also Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and the rest. Some great young pitchers become great older pitchers. And it’s not like hitters are risk free either, so while Matt Harvey might be peaking right now, every team in baseball would sign up for the right to see if Harvey could be more Kershaw than Prior. It’s basically impossible for a pitcher to have more trade value than Matt Harvey does right now.


#6 Buster Posey (C)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
26 367 9.5 % 11.2 % .325 .395 .536 .398 162 -2.6 -0.6 4.1

Under Team Control Through 2022: $11M, $17M, $20M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $22M option

Buster Posey has followed up last year’s 163 wRC+ by posting a 162 wRC+ this year. Buster Posey is a catcher. Catchers don’t hit like this. Most first baseman don’t hit like this.

That is probably the lingering question hanging over Posey’s head, however. How much longer will he be a catcher, because a lot of his current value is tied to his ability to produce offense at a position where offense is scarce. If he moves to first base, he’d still be an excellent player, but he would be less excellent. So, how long can he stay behind the plate?

My guess is longer than we might think. Posey’s not the kind of bat-first catcher that you eventually move out from behind the dish because you can’t handle his defensive issues anymore. He’s not Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli. He might not be the best defensive catcher in the game, but he’s not actively hurting the Giants back there. I don’t see any reason to have Posey stop catching until it begins to wear him down physically. And given what he’s doing over the last year and a half, good luck proving that catching is hurting his offensive production.

The contract the Giants gave him was a win for both sides. Posey will be well compensated and has long term security, while the Giants have a premium player under team control for the bulk of his career. He’s not cheap in the sense that other players on this list are, but the value associated with having this kind of player at a good price is still immense.


#5 Evan Longoria (3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
27 399 11.0 % 22.3 % .278 .356 .507 .367 138 10.8 -1.0 4.4

Under Team Control Through 2023: $8M, $11M, $12M, $13M, $14M, $15M, $15M, $19M, $20M, $13M option

Here’s a fun fact: Evan Longoria, known for his superlative defense and not really considered one of the game’s best hitters, has a career wRC+ of 136. Prince Fielder, a bat only player who got $214 million as a free agent, has a career wRC+ of 141. Evan Longoria is Prince Fielder’s offense combined with Adrian Beltre’s defense. Evan Longoria is an amazing and still under-appreciated baseball player.

And you know, there’s his contract. If they exercise the 2023 option, the remainder is $140 million over 10 years, taking Longoria through his age-37 season. On the one hand, Longoria probably won’t be a star in 10 years. On the other hand, $13 million isn’t going to be a lot of money to a baseball team in 10 years either.

Longoria’s health issues are the only real detracting factor here. If he was perfectly healthy all the time, we’d just rename this thing the Countdown to Evan Longoria. That he’s likely to spend some time on the DL each season makes him just great instead of practically perfect. There’s a reason the Rays chose this guy to build their franchise around, and it’s the same reason why the Rays are a terrific baseball team. Evan Longoria is a superstar.


#4 Andrew McCutchen (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
26 388 9.5 % 14.2 % .302 .376 .471 .365 136 6.7 4.4 4.3

Under Team Control Through 2018: $7M, $10M, $13M, $14M, $15M

Andrew McCutchen is baseball’s prime example of the sum being better than the whole of its parts. He’s not the best defensive center fielder in the game. He doesn’t have elite power. He doesn’t make more contact than anyone, or draw an inordinate amount of walks. He’s not an elite base stealer. There isn’t a single that that McCutchen is better at than anyone else in Major League Baseball.

But he’s so good across the board that the overall package is a franchise player. A center fielder with first baseman’s offensive skills who also adds value with his legs, and by the way, doesn’t turn 27 until next year. McCutchen probably isn’t as good as he can be yet. He’s great, and there’s room for more.

A year ago, when he signed his extension to stay in Pittsburgh last year, there were actually questions about whether he was worth the $51 million they committed to him. If he was a free agent today, he’d get $250 million. Instead, the Pirates will pay him an average of about $12 million per year over the next five years, and McCutchen stands to help put Pittsburgh back on the map in Major League Baseball. I’d call that a pretty good signing.


#3 Manny Machado (3B)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
20 435 3.7 % 16.3 % .310 .337 .470 .349 118 16.0 -1.9 4.2

Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

It’s important to remember that defense peaks early. Athleticism generally only declines after a player makes his big league debut, and the plays we’re seeing Manny Machado make at third base, he probably won’t be able to make forever. He’s an amazing defensive third baseman, but he might not always be this amazing.

The good news is that offense peaks later, and Machado’s offensive development should overwhelm any kind of defensive loss he sustains as he ages. He’s already a pretty good big league hitter at age-20, and when the doubles power turns into home run power — and he learns to not swing at every pitch he’s thrown — Machado could easily turn into one of the game’s best two way players.

If the Orioles moved him back to shortstop, we’d be comparing him to Troy Tulowitzki. As it is, he looks like he might end up following Evan Longoria’s path to stardom. Either path is just fine, and you shouldn’t worry too much about whether he’s playing third base or shortstop. He’s a huge defensive asset at both positions, and the gap in value between those two spots is more a fantasy baseball thing than a real baseball thing.

No matter where he plays, though, he’s got superstar written all over him. He’s not anything close to a finished product, but the upside is just so obvious. I’d imagine the Orioles will sign him up for a very long time once this season is over, because this is the kind of player you build championship teams around.


#2 Bryce Harper (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
20 242 14.9 % 18.2 % .264 .371 .522 .381 145 -2.0 -0.4 1.6

Under Team Control Through 2018: $0.9M, Arbitration

I still think, from a looking-back-in-20-years perspective, that Bryce Harper has a chance to be the best player of this generation. His offensive skills are so special that he could easily develop into one of the best hitters in the history of the sport. Barring a serious injury, I will be very surprised if Harper doesn’t end up in the Hall of Fame. He’s that kind of player.

But, right now, that’s only good enough for #2. Because as good as Harper’s future looks, in the present, he’s still more good than great. The power isn’t fully developed yet. He’s not a great baserunner. He’s a good defender for a corner, but he’s not among the game’s best ball hawks. He’s a special kind of young hitter, but everything else is just good, not great.

And then there’s the health. You never want to see a young player having knee problems. It’s not the end of the world, but it’s not ideal either. He’s also shown a penchant for playing the game at 100% all the time, even if that means sacrificing his body in order to do so. Eventually, he will have to learn that it’s better to let a ball hit the wall than be peeling yourself off the ground every day. It might take awhile for that to sink in.

And finally, there’s the price. Harper’s going to be a Super Two player, getting four bites at arbitration, and his prices are going to skyrocket. Scott Boras knows what Harper is, and he’s not going to be easy to lock up long term. While there’s five more years of team control, he’s going to be pretty expensive by the end of those five years, and he’s not a sure thing to give up free agency.

So, as much as I’m completely and utterly in the tank for Bryce Harper’s bat, I can’t overlook the legitimate questions. There are real issues here. Maybe they will all turn out to be nothing. For the good of baseball, that’s what I’m hoping for.


#1 Mike Trout (OF)



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Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
21 426 11.0 % 16.4 % .322 .399 .565 .410 166 1.1 5.7 5.7

Under Team Control Through 2017: Pre-Arb, Arbitration

Ladies and Gentleman, the best player in baseball. He’s 21.

Mike Trout is basically perfect. After having the best age-20 season of all time, he’s followed it up by being just as good. From a skills perspective, he’s even getting better, as he’s cut his strikeout rate down and now really doesn’t have any flaws. He’s gotten a little bigger, so maybe he’s not quite as good at the parts of his game that involve running as he was last year, but he’s still among the most valuable players in the game at non-hitting things.

Without knowing how conversations went, it’s impossible to know why the Angels haven’t locked up Mike Trout yet. Just back up the truck and give him whatever he wants. The rest of the Angels are kind of a disaster, but this guy is single handedly keeping them from going off the rails.

There is no player in baseball more valuable than Mike Trout. Even with just four years of team control left at uncertain prices, he’s on another level. This is the game’s premier asset.


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Nats just fired their hitting coach, Rick Eckstein :smokin now it's time for the players to actually step up since there isn't a fall guy anymore.
 
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madj55 said:
Nats just fired their hitting coach, Rick Eckstein
smokin.gif
now it's time for the players to actually step up since there isn't a fall guy anymore.
Click to expand...
nthat.gif
 
The Braves should follow suit and show Greg Walker the door.
July - .254, 1 HR, 3 BB, 21 K, .286 OBP, .624 OPS

That home run was on July 2nd.

The scouting report is out on Puig.  This regression was obviously coming with the lack of plate discipline.  Great players make the right adjustments.
 
JumpmanFromDaBay said:
in all honesty, what does firing the hitting coach actually do? still the same hitters at the plate
Click to expand...

Not much. I don't know why that's anything to get excited about. All it does is make someone the fall guy so they don't have to deal with the real issue....Be that the Manager or the players.
 
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Billy Beane is a smart GM, after getting fleeced for Carlos Gonzales, I think he is done with expensive rentals. He knows too well, no one is staying in Oakland.
 
MLB ‏@MLB 2m
BREAKING: Ryan Braun suspended without pay for remainder of 2013 season for violations of Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
 
DeadsetAce said:
MLB ‏@MLB 2m
BREAKING: Ryan Braun suspended without pay for remainder of 2013 season for violations of Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
Click to expand...

:eek

Even though I knew the MLBPA wasn't going to put up a fight, didn't think the kick would come this quick or swiftly.

Major League Baseball has suspended Ryan Braun for the rest of the season due to his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal, and he has accepted the deal, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Braun's suspension is effective immediately, meaning that the total penalty is 65 games.
Click to expand...
 
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