MLB Future Power Rankings (15-1).
The best 30 players in 2018.
Will 2013 Be Justin Morneau’s Last Stand?
Strike Zone Generosity and Team Pitching Success.
Robinson Cano and Second Base Aging Curves.
A year ago, ESPN Insider brought you the first edition of the MLB Future Power Rankings. We updated the rankings in August, and we're back to give you the first installment for 2013.
We've once again asked three of our top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in an attempt to measure how well each team is set up for sustained success over the next five years.
CATEGORIES
MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster
MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?
MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old, immovable guys?
For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on a scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
With each team's ranking, you'll also get a take from Buster, Jim and Keith. Buster will give an overview of the franchise's future, Jim will explain the biggest dilemma currently facing the team and Keith highlights an intriguing aspect of their farm system.
Wednesday, we revealed teams ranked from 30 through 16. Now we give you the top 15.
So who's No. 1? Which team did our team of experts think is best equipped for success over the next half-decade? It's time to find out.
FPR: No. 30-16
1
St. Louis Cardinals
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Cardinals are sitting in that sweet spot where they have a strong big league club, an elite farm system and plenty of long-term payroll flexibility. This club has a knack for developing excellent role players, such as David Freese, Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter, which allows it to spend for free agents (such as Matt Holliday) when the need arises. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
As Albert Pujols knows, the Cardinals are not afraid to let a superstar walk as a free agent. Adam Wainwright is set to hit the market next winter, and the Cards must decide if they want to sign him to an inflated market deal now or let him test the market. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Cardinals have the top farm system in baseball heading into 2013, featuring impact prospects up top, plenty of depth in position players and pitching and enough help close to the majors to push them ahead of the Twins, who have as much depth but most of it further away.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
2
Texas Rangers
AL WEST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
For the first time since we started doing the Future Power Rankings, the Rangers are not No. 1. While some may criticize them for allowing core players such as Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Mike Napoli to walk as free agents, they deserve credit for discipline and sticking to their philosophy of not overvaluing any one player. Even without Hamilton, this team will be competitive for years to come, though it might take a small step back in 2013. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Elvis Andrus is a free agent after the 2014 season and the Rangers have interest in signing him long-term. However, their early discussions with agent Scott Boras have found the two parties so far apart that the Rangers may have to trade Andrus at some point before the 2014 season and hand shortstop over to Jurickson Profar, arguably the top prospect in the game. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They've got a few valuable, near-in guys in Profar, Mike Olt and the enigmatic Martin Perez, with righty Cody Buckel not too far behind. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
3
Tampa Bay Rays
AL EAST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
By trading James Shields to the Royals over the winter in order to acquire top prospect Wil Myers, the Rays may have taken a step back for 2013. However, they have plenty of cost-controlled talent to keep them relevant for a few years, and could get an influx of it if they decide to trade David Price before he hits free agency following the 2015 season. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Rays must figure out how to get out of their Tropicana Field lease earlier than the agreed-upon 2027. The Rays are willing to pay a fee to the city to get the right to shop other locations in Tampa, and they need to increase their revenue in order to re-sign all of the stars they produce. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They're good, because they have to be. Some setbacks among high-profile prospects this year, like Hak-Ju Lee's mechanical issues at the plate and a few players getting suspended for using weed or speed, were balanced out by the Shields trade, which netted two top-100 prospects and a former one, and strong full-season debuts by a few members of their 2011 draft class.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
4
Washington Nationals
NL EAST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
On paper, the Nats are the best team in baseball right now. And because of a core of young stars led by Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Gio Gonzalez, they are set up for years to come. One thing to watch: Both Strasburg and Harper are represented by Scott Boras, and he never allows his clients to sign extensions before free agency. These two could set some records if they hit free agency in their mid-20s. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
With Strasburg, Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren, the Nats love their rotation. However, they have little starting pitching depth in the organization, and they could be in serious trouble if an injury or two arises. -- Jim Bowden
The System
I love the Nationals' top five prospects, but after that, there's something of a cliff, although it's at least the result of two productive strategies: the trades for Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span, both of which made the major league club better, and the decision to bet their whole 2012 draft (pretty much) on Lucas Giolito, a No. 1 overall candidate who fell to No. 16 due to well-founded injury concerns.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
5
New York Yankees
AL EAST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Yankees' future is up in the air in a way it hasn't been for 20 years. Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda will all be free agents after the 2013 season, and it wouldn't be surprising if this is their last season in pinstripes. The Yankees are going to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold for 2014, which will allow them to start spending again. So don't expect them to be down for long (if at all). -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Cano and Granderson are arguably the Yankees' two best position players, and both are free agents after this year. The Yankees need to figure out if they can (and want to) sign both of them. This was complicated by the broken arm Granderson suffered in spring training that will keep him out until May. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Yankees' system is top-heavy, with several elite prospects but not a ton of depth, led by the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year that could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who'll have big league value. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
6
Chicago Cubs
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
In Theo We Trust. This club is undergoing a teardown unseen this side of Houston, but they've rid themselves of pretty much every significant payroll obligation beyond 2014. It's been an encouraging rebuilding effort, though Matt Garza's injury woes will prevent them from extracting full value for him in a trade. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
They have made a lot of strides adding position-player talent to the organization, and now they must add arms. Most of their winter spending was on pitchers, but they don't have a future ace in the pipeline. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They've turned around substantially after trading Paul Maholm, spending lavishly on international free agents (when permitted) and drafting well in 2012, although most of what I like about this system is a good two years away. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
7
Cincinnati Reds
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
This club is very well set up for the next couple of years, with Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Mat Latos and Jay Bruce all signed at least through 2014. They are close to surpassing the $100 million mark in payroll for the first time in club history, but as the $225 million deal they gave Votto suggests, they will spend when they need to. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
As Buster said, they are set up well for the next couple of years. Dusty Baker has done a great job there, but he is well into his 60s and is only signed through 2014. The Reds will need to decide if they want to groom a replacement or make a splash with someone from outside the organization. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Billy Hamilton's conversion to center field after he broke the minor league single-season stolen-base record was their big story of 2012, putting him on track to potentially reach the majors this year, especially since the team has no real center fielder on the roster. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
8
Los Angeles Dodgers
NL WEST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Dodgers have made no secret of the fact they are willing to spend a lot of money to put a winning team on the field. In Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp they have two of the best players in the game, and they will be a player for every major free agent there is. In fact, the biggest hole in their lineup is at second base, and a certain Yankees second baseman is set to hit the market next winter. Stay tuned. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Dodgers have the talent, and now they must decide if Don Mattingly is the right man to lead this club to the World Series. When his contract wasn't picked up over the winter, Mattingly had to see the writing on the wall: win or else. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Dodgers put just two guys in my ranking of the top 100 prospects, but had I gone another 40 to 50 names, you would have seen more blue on the list, led by Cuban bonus baby Yasiel Puig, who got only a little playing time this summer before a staph infection that required surgery and knocked him out of the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
9
Detroit Tigers
AL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Owner Mike Ilitch has made it clear he wants to win the World Series at all costs, and he has a superstar-laden team that can do just that. The Tigers are where the Phillies were a few years ago, with a roster of stars in their primes but a shallow farm system. In other words, the fans should enjoy the success while it lasts. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
They have Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera both locked up for at least three more seasons, and now must turn their attention to Justin Verlander, who is a free agent after 2014. He wants to finish his career with the Tigers, but he also wants to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Their system has been hit hard by trades and the loss of first-round picks by virtue of signing free agents -- their last top-40 pick was in 2009, and their highest pick in the past two drafts was 76th overall in 2011. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
10
Boston Red Sox
AL EAST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
By shedding the salaries of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett in last summer's blockbuster with the Dodgers, Boston's front office suddenly gave itself a lot of flexibility. The Sox made a number of midlevel signings over the winter, but none of them cost the club a draft pick or will severely hamstring them down the road. With a number of promising prospects on the way, the Sox are poised to be a force again soon. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
In 2011, Jacoby Ellsbury was an MVP candidate, but he spent most of 2012 on the DL. He'll be a free agent after next year, and in a perfect world the Sox would re-sign him and move him to left field to make room for top prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. Of course, Ellsbury is represented by Scott Boras and will surely chase top dollar, so if the Sox don't want to pay a premium for him, they might have to deal him in July if they aren't going to contend. -- Jim Bowden
The System
A lot went right on the farm for Boston this year, with top prospect Xander Bogaerts making major strides on defense at shortstop, Bradley lighting everyone up with his plate discipline and Matt Barnes and Henry Owens posting very strong full-season debuts. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
11
Atlanta Braves
NL EAST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Braves' identity is changing rapidly: Chipper Jones is gone, and Brian McCann could follow next winter. This is now Jason Heyward's team, and if the Upton brothers can play to their potential and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy prove they are for real, this team is talented enough to topple the Nats. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Although the Braves are still trying to find their long-term solution at third base in the wake of Jones' retirement, the bigger issue is behind the plate. McCann is recovering from shoulder surgery and will be a free agent at season's end. Do they sign him long term or hand the future over to top catching prospect Christian Bethancourt? -- Jim Bowden
The System
Atlanta didn't dip much into its farm system to acquire Justin Upton, but its system wasn't strong to begin with thanks to a very weak track record in the draft over the past several years. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
12
Los Angeles Angels
AL WEST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Their organizational structure is quite similar to Detroit's: A few high-end (and expensive) stars, not much lineup or prospect depth. The difference is that the Angels' rotation is filled with question marks after Jered Weaver, and even he has seen his velocity drop consistently over the past few years, raising questions about how long he can maintain his current level of performance. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
While the big league team is talented, they don't have a top-of-the-rotation starter in the system, and those are the kind of arms needed to win championships in the tough AL West. They are hoping that Tommy Hanson can recapture the form he showed in 2010 -- when he posted a 3.33 ERA in more than 200 innings for the Braves -- to give them a formidable No. 3 starter behind Weaver and C.J. Wilson. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The cupboard is nearly bare after years of trades, promotions and lost draft picks, with the Angels the only team that didn't have a pick on the first day of the 2012 draft. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
13
Toronto Blue Jays
AL EAST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Yes, the trades they made over the winter were designed to "win now," but this club has Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Morrow, Melky Cabrera and Ricky Romero all signed for at least the next two seasons. They'll be contenders for a while. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Blue Jays made a bunch of trades to improve their big league club, but they decimated their farm system in the process. They built their system by spending aggressively in the draft, but they won't be able to do that in the future thanks to the spending limit in the new CBA. Therefore, they will have to be a bit more creative and really nail their top draft picks in order to replenish the farm. -- Jim Bowden
The System
There's almost no one left after the Dickey trade and the deal with the Marlins during their fire sale, although the Jays wouldn't deal top prospect Aaron Sanchez, who has the raw stuff and delivery to develop into an ace if he can develop average or better control. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
14
San Francisco Giants
NL WEST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Yes, they've won two of the past three World Series, but that's in the past. The future has plenty of questions, as their farm system is weak and they have invested heavily in some older players. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are locked up for the foreseeable future, and while Buster Posey won't hit free agency until after the 2016 season, he is going to set some arbitration records if they don't lock him up soon. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Tim Lincecum's two year, $40.5 million contract expires at the end of this season, and the Giants have to see if the two-time Cy Young winner can recapture his Cy Young form after his disastrous 2012 season. Even if he is stellar again, that 2012 performance will certainly be a point of discussion at the negotiating table. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now and, after closer Heath Hembree, doesn't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
15
Arizona Diamondbacks
NL WEST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
GM Kevin Towers has gone out of his way to acquire guys who play the way manager Kirk Gibson played, and has surrendered a lot of high-end talent (Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer) in the process. This is a solid club from top to bottom, but it's rare for a team bereft of superstars to make a deep playoff run, which is what Arizona is trying to do. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Whether Arizona believes it or not, World Series are won by teams with superstars. Last year it was the Giants with Matt Cain and Buster Posey, the year before that it was the Cardinals with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. For the Diamondbacks to win a championship they are going to need a middle-of-the-order impact star player who can carry the team during offensive slumps. The D-backs don't consider it a dilemma, but the win-loss record might say differently over the next few years. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Dealing Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Upton trade, but the Diamondbacks are still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
We've once again asked three of our top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in an attempt to measure how well each team is set up for sustained success over the next five years.
CATEGORIES
MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster
MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?
MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old, immovable guys?
For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on a scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
With each team's ranking, you'll also get a take from Buster, Jim and Keith. Buster will give an overview of the franchise's future, Jim will explain the biggest dilemma currently facing the team and Keith highlights an intriguing aspect of their farm system.
Wednesday, we revealed teams ranked from 30 through 16. Now we give you the top 15.
So who's No. 1? Which team did our team of experts think is best equipped for success over the next half-decade? It's time to find out.
FPR: No. 30-16
1
St. Louis Cardinals
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Cardinals are sitting in that sweet spot where they have a strong big league club, an elite farm system and plenty of long-term payroll flexibility. This club has a knack for developing excellent role players, such as David Freese, Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter, which allows it to spend for free agents (such as Matt Holliday) when the need arises. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
As Albert Pujols knows, the Cardinals are not afraid to let a superstar walk as a free agent. Adam Wainwright is set to hit the market next winter, and the Cards must decide if they want to sign him to an inflated market deal now or let him test the market. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Cardinals have the top farm system in baseball heading into 2013, featuring impact prospects up top, plenty of depth in position players and pitching and enough help close to the majors to push them ahead of the Twins, who have as much depth but most of it further away.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
2
Texas Rangers
AL WEST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
For the first time since we started doing the Future Power Rankings, the Rangers are not No. 1. While some may criticize them for allowing core players such as Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Mike Napoli to walk as free agents, they deserve credit for discipline and sticking to their philosophy of not overvaluing any one player. Even without Hamilton, this team will be competitive for years to come, though it might take a small step back in 2013. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Elvis Andrus is a free agent after the 2014 season and the Rangers have interest in signing him long-term. However, their early discussions with agent Scott Boras have found the two parties so far apart that the Rangers may have to trade Andrus at some point before the 2014 season and hand shortstop over to Jurickson Profar, arguably the top prospect in the game. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They've got a few valuable, near-in guys in Profar, Mike Olt and the enigmatic Martin Perez, with righty Cody Buckel not too far behind. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
3
Tampa Bay Rays
AL EAST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
By trading James Shields to the Royals over the winter in order to acquire top prospect Wil Myers, the Rays may have taken a step back for 2013. However, they have plenty of cost-controlled talent to keep them relevant for a few years, and could get an influx of it if they decide to trade David Price before he hits free agency following the 2015 season. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Rays must figure out how to get out of their Tropicana Field lease earlier than the agreed-upon 2027. The Rays are willing to pay a fee to the city to get the right to shop other locations in Tampa, and they need to increase their revenue in order to re-sign all of the stars they produce. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They're good, because they have to be. Some setbacks among high-profile prospects this year, like Hak-Ju Lee's mechanical issues at the plate and a few players getting suspended for using weed or speed, were balanced out by the Shields trade, which netted two top-100 prospects and a former one, and strong full-season debuts by a few members of their 2011 draft class.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
4
Washington Nationals
NL EAST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
On paper, the Nats are the best team in baseball right now. And because of a core of young stars led by Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Gio Gonzalez, they are set up for years to come. One thing to watch: Both Strasburg and Harper are represented by Scott Boras, and he never allows his clients to sign extensions before free agency. These two could set some records if they hit free agency in their mid-20s. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
With Strasburg, Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren, the Nats love their rotation. However, they have little starting pitching depth in the organization, and they could be in serious trouble if an injury or two arises. -- Jim Bowden
The System
I love the Nationals' top five prospects, but after that, there's something of a cliff, although it's at least the result of two productive strategies: the trades for Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span, both of which made the major league club better, and the decision to bet their whole 2012 draft (pretty much) on Lucas Giolito, a No. 1 overall candidate who fell to No. 16 due to well-founded injury concerns.(Click here for more) -- Keith Law
5
New York Yankees
AL EAST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Yankees' future is up in the air in a way it hasn't been for 20 years. Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda will all be free agents after the 2013 season, and it wouldn't be surprising if this is their last season in pinstripes. The Yankees are going to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold for 2014, which will allow them to start spending again. So don't expect them to be down for long (if at all). -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Cano and Granderson are arguably the Yankees' two best position players, and both are free agents after this year. The Yankees need to figure out if they can (and want to) sign both of them. This was complicated by the broken arm Granderson suffered in spring training that will keep him out until May. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Yankees' system is top-heavy, with several elite prospects but not a ton of depth, led by the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year that could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who'll have big league value. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
6
Chicago Cubs
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
In Theo We Trust. This club is undergoing a teardown unseen this side of Houston, but they've rid themselves of pretty much every significant payroll obligation beyond 2014. It's been an encouraging rebuilding effort, though Matt Garza's injury woes will prevent them from extracting full value for him in a trade. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
They have made a lot of strides adding position-player talent to the organization, and now they must add arms. Most of their winter spending was on pitchers, but they don't have a future ace in the pipeline. -- Jim Bowden
The System
They've turned around substantially after trading Paul Maholm, spending lavishly on international free agents (when permitted) and drafting well in 2012, although most of what I like about this system is a good two years away. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
7
Cincinnati Reds
NL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
This club is very well set up for the next couple of years, with Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Mat Latos and Jay Bruce all signed at least through 2014. They are close to surpassing the $100 million mark in payroll for the first time in club history, but as the $225 million deal they gave Votto suggests, they will spend when they need to. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
As Buster said, they are set up well for the next couple of years. Dusty Baker has done a great job there, but he is well into his 60s and is only signed through 2014. The Reds will need to decide if they want to groom a replacement or make a splash with someone from outside the organization. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Billy Hamilton's conversion to center field after he broke the minor league single-season stolen-base record was their big story of 2012, putting him on track to potentially reach the majors this year, especially since the team has no real center fielder on the roster. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
8
Los Angeles Dodgers
NL WEST FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Dodgers have made no secret of the fact they are willing to spend a lot of money to put a winning team on the field. In Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp they have two of the best players in the game, and they will be a player for every major free agent there is. In fact, the biggest hole in their lineup is at second base, and a certain Yankees second baseman is set to hit the market next winter. Stay tuned. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Dodgers have the talent, and now they must decide if Don Mattingly is the right man to lead this club to the World Series. When his contract wasn't picked up over the winter, Mattingly had to see the writing on the wall: win or else. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The Dodgers put just two guys in my ranking of the top 100 prospects, but had I gone another 40 to 50 names, you would have seen more blue on the list, led by Cuban bonus baby Yasiel Puig, who got only a little playing time this summer before a staph infection that required surgery and knocked him out of the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
9
Detroit Tigers
AL CENTRAL FPR RANK: 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Owner Mike Ilitch has made it clear he wants to win the World Series at all costs, and he has a superstar-laden team that can do just that. The Tigers are where the Phillies were a few years ago, with a roster of stars in their primes but a shallow farm system. In other words, the fans should enjoy the success while it lasts. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
They have Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera both locked up for at least three more seasons, and now must turn their attention to Justin Verlander, who is a free agent after 2014. He wants to finish his career with the Tigers, but he also wants to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Their system has been hit hard by trades and the loss of first-round picks by virtue of signing free agents -- their last top-40 pick was in 2009, and their highest pick in the past two drafts was 76th overall in 2011. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
10
Boston Red Sox
AL EAST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
By shedding the salaries of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett in last summer's blockbuster with the Dodgers, Boston's front office suddenly gave itself a lot of flexibility. The Sox made a number of midlevel signings over the winter, but none of them cost the club a draft pick or will severely hamstring them down the road. With a number of promising prospects on the way, the Sox are poised to be a force again soon. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
In 2011, Jacoby Ellsbury was an MVP candidate, but he spent most of 2012 on the DL. He'll be a free agent after next year, and in a perfect world the Sox would re-sign him and move him to left field to make room for top prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. Of course, Ellsbury is represented by Scott Boras and will surely chase top dollar, so if the Sox don't want to pay a premium for him, they might have to deal him in July if they aren't going to contend. -- Jim Bowden
The System
A lot went right on the farm for Boston this year, with top prospect Xander Bogaerts making major strides on defense at shortstop, Bradley lighting everyone up with his plate discipline and Matt Barnes and Henry Owens posting very strong full-season debuts. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
11
Atlanta Braves
NL EAST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
The Braves' identity is changing rapidly: Chipper Jones is gone, and Brian McCann could follow next winter. This is now Jason Heyward's team, and if the Upton brothers can play to their potential and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy prove they are for real, this team is talented enough to topple the Nats. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Although the Braves are still trying to find their long-term solution at third base in the wake of Jones' retirement, the bigger issue is behind the plate. McCann is recovering from shoulder surgery and will be a free agent at season's end. Do they sign him long term or hand the future over to top catching prospect Christian Bethancourt? -- Jim Bowden
The System
Atlanta didn't dip much into its farm system to acquire Justin Upton, but its system wasn't strong to begin with thanks to a very weak track record in the draft over the past several years. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
12
Los Angeles Angels
AL WEST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Their organizational structure is quite similar to Detroit's: A few high-end (and expensive) stars, not much lineup or prospect depth. The difference is that the Angels' rotation is filled with question marks after Jered Weaver, and even he has seen his velocity drop consistently over the past few years, raising questions about how long he can maintain his current level of performance. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
While the big league team is talented, they don't have a top-of-the-rotation starter in the system, and those are the kind of arms needed to win championships in the tough AL West. They are hoping that Tommy Hanson can recapture the form he showed in 2010 -- when he posted a 3.33 ERA in more than 200 innings for the Braves -- to give them a formidable No. 3 starter behind Weaver and C.J. Wilson. -- Jim Bowden
The System
The cupboard is nearly bare after years of trades, promotions and lost draft picks, with the Angels the only team that didn't have a pick on the first day of the 2012 draft. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
13
Toronto Blue Jays
AL EAST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Yes, the trades they made over the winter were designed to "win now," but this club has Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Morrow, Melky Cabrera and Ricky Romero all signed for at least the next two seasons. They'll be contenders for a while. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
The Blue Jays made a bunch of trades to improve their big league club, but they decimated their farm system in the process. They built their system by spending aggressively in the draft, but they won't be able to do that in the future thanks to the spending limit in the new CBA. Therefore, they will have to be a bit more creative and really nail their top draft picks in order to replenish the farm. -- Jim Bowden
The System
There's almost no one left after the Dickey trade and the deal with the Marlins during their fire sale, although the Jays wouldn't deal top prospect Aaron Sanchez, who has the raw stuff and delivery to develop into an ace if he can develop average or better control. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
14
San Francisco Giants
NL WEST FPR RANK: 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
Yes, they've won two of the past three World Series, but that's in the past. The future has plenty of questions, as their farm system is weak and they have invested heavily in some older players. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are locked up for the foreseeable future, and while Buster Posey won't hit free agency until after the 2016 season, he is going to set some arbitration records if they don't lock him up soon. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Tim Lincecum's two year, $40.5 million contract expires at the end of this season, and the Giants have to see if the two-time Cy Young winner can recapture his Cy Young form after his disastrous 2012 season. Even if he is stellar again, that 2012 performance will certainly be a point of discussion at the negotiating table. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now and, after closer Heath Hembree, doesn't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
15
Arizona Diamondbacks
NL WEST FPR RANK: 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Overview
GM Kevin Towers has gone out of his way to acquire guys who play the way manager Kirk Gibson played, and has surrendered a lot of high-end talent (Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer) in the process. This is a solid club from top to bottom, but it's rare for a team bereft of superstars to make a deep playoff run, which is what Arizona is trying to do. -- Buster Olney
The Dilemma
Whether Arizona believes it or not, World Series are won by teams with superstars. Last year it was the Giants with Matt Cain and Buster Posey, the year before that it was the Cardinals with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. For the Diamondbacks to win a championship they are going to need a middle-of-the-order impact star player who can carry the team during offensive slumps. The D-backs don't consider it a dilemma, but the win-loss record might say differently over the next few years. -- Jim Bowden
The System
Dealing Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Upton trade, but the Diamondbacks are still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. (Click here for more) -- Keith Law
The best 30 players in 2018.
If you haven't seen it yet, the latest edition of the MLB Future Power Rankings by Keith Law, Buster Olney, and Jim Bowden is up.
Here, rather than looking at the team rankings, we're instead focusing on who the best players in the future are likely to be, focusing on players currently in professional baseball. Predicting for 2013 is already difficult, so our view of 2018 is already a bit foggy, but it's always fun to at least try.
No doubt some of the players below will fall off the list and there will be someone who's now just entering college or someone completely unexpected -- see Jose Bautista five years ago -- jumping onto the list. But this is our best early guess. The players are ranked by the 2018 ZiPS projected WAR.
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Projected 2018 stats: .273/.367/.508, 28 HR, 6.5 WAR
No. 1 is probably the least surprising player on the list. Trout was so good in 2012 that even if that turns out to be his best season, he can still very easily be a perennial MVP candidate. People do tend to overrate how much very young superstars improve, but Trout could give back nearly half his 2012 WAR and still be one of the very best in baseball.
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2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
Projected 2018 stats: .287/.377/.573, 38 HR, 6.4 WAR
Harper didn't have the year that Trout did -- nobody did, really -- but he probably has more room to grow, especially in power potential. Even if he's a hair behind Trout long-term, there's no shame in that, and the Nats will be best served to at least sound out Harper on a long-term deal soon, though it's unlikely agent Scott Boras will bite.
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3. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected 2018 stats: 2.89 ERA, 202 K, 50 BB, 5.7 WAR
In 2018, Kershaw will be just 30, and in the long term, he's probably the safest pitcher in baseball. One of just two pitchers in the top 10 for 2018, Kershaw is already on a Hall of Fame path.
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4. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
Projected 2018 stats: .270/.369/.580, 38 HR, 5.5 WAR
This is his projection if he stays a Marlin, which seems unlikely given ownership's proclivity toward extreme thrift. Put Stanton in a park that favors right-handed sluggers, like Camden Yards, and he could move up the list.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Projected 2018 stats: .291/.368/.469, 18 HR, 5.3 WAR
While catchers are inherently risky, Posey has already survived a gruesome ankle injury and put up an MVP season just a year later. He's not going to hit .336 that often going forward, but he has staked his case as the best catcher in baseball.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Projected 2018 stats: .268/.336/.489, 26 HR, 5.3 WAR
He is generally believed to have plus-power potential, and the computer agrees with the scouts. As noted for Stanton, Camden's a good home for a right-handed power hitter. The only question now is if the O's play him at short, which this projection assumes. As a third baseman, he drops out of the top 10.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers
Projected 2018 stats: .274/.358/.475, 20 HR, 5.0 WAR
Profar is likely to start the season in Triple-A, thus delaying the Rangers' final decision on how to solve the middle-infield logjam. In the end, the Rangers will have to make the room for Profar, and if he is in fact the player traded, they better fill some other serious needs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
Projected 2018 stats: .293/.341/.478, 19 HR, 4.7 WAR
Can he stay at short? The stats have generally been more positive (or at least, less negative) on Castro's defense than the eye has been. Wherever he ends up, by 2018 he's likely to be one of the best hitters for average over the past decade, though he's not going to ever be a guy who racks up walks.
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9. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
Projected 2018 stats: 2.91 ERA, 168 K, 47 BB, 4.5 WAR
With his Tommy John surgery behind him and the Nats being careful with him in 2012, he's a lot less risky than he was a year ago. One of Strasburg's top comps in ZiPS is Roger Clemens, and it's a testament to how accomplished Strasburg is (despite relatively little professional experience) that the comparison isn't ridiculous.
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10. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
Projected 2018 stats: .259/.349/.492, 28 HR, 4.4 WAR
Along with Freddie Freeman, who just missed the top 30, Heyward will hopefully anchor the middle of Atlanta's lineup for the next decade. Even if he never becomes a hitter for average, his power and glove still make him a star.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Projected 2018 stats: 3.47 ERA, 163 K, 48 BB, 4.4 WAR
Five years of 15 wins and Verlander will enter the 2018 season with roughly 200 wins at the age of 35. Even if he isn't the latest pitcher to be "The Last 300-Game Winner," Verlander is likely to be entering the homestretch of a Hall of Fame career and surpassing Hal Newhouser as the best pitcher ever in Tigers history.
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12. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
Projected 2018 stats: .254/.337/.418, 21 HR, 4.4 WAR
Zunino is in the most precarious position of any player on this list. He needed no time whatsoever to transition to professional ball after Seattle selected him third overall in the 2012 draft, terrorizing the Northwest League for a month and then continuing his trail of destruction after being promoted all the way to Double-A. However, the track record is so limited that his projection could change a lot over the next couple of years.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13. Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers
Projected 2018 stats: 3.50 ERA, 180 K, 69 BB, 4.3 WAR
It's easy to forget how young Darvish still is, having just turned 26 in August. He walked more batters than you would like in his MLB debut, but he still has a great deal of upside as he gets more comfortable with a new league in a new country.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14. Mat Latos, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Projected 2018 stats: 3.45 ERA, 163 K, 45 BB, 4.3 WAR
Johnny Cueto got more press, but for the second half of the season, it was Latos who was truly the staff ace. Still just 25 years old, Latos made his miserable April seem like a distant memory.
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15. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Projected 2018 stats: .273/.356/.520, 34 HR, 4.3 WAR
Ignore Rizzo's cup of coffee with the Padres, his .285/.342/.463 line with the Cubs in 2012 is a far more accurate representation of where he is as a player. The Theo Epstein Cubs aren't done rebuilding yet, but if they can round up a worthwhile third baseman, the infield will already be one of the best in baseball.
And the rest
16. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals: 4.2 WAR
17. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates: 4.2
18. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays: 4.2
19. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Nationals: 4.1
20. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners: 4.0
21. David Price, LHP, Rays: 4.0
22. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers: 3.9
23. Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox: 3.9
24. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: 3.9
25. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles: 3.8
26. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: 3.7
27. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: 3.7
28. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: 3.7
29. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: 3.6
30. Wil Myers, RF, Rays: 3.6
Here, rather than looking at the team rankings, we're instead focusing on who the best players in the future are likely to be, focusing on players currently in professional baseball. Predicting for 2013 is already difficult, so our view of 2018 is already a bit foggy, but it's always fun to at least try.
No doubt some of the players below will fall off the list and there will be someone who's now just entering college or someone completely unexpected -- see Jose Bautista five years ago -- jumping onto the list. But this is our best early guess. The players are ranked by the 2018 ZiPS projected WAR.
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Projected 2018 stats: .273/.367/.508, 28 HR, 6.5 WAR
No. 1 is probably the least surprising player on the list. Trout was so good in 2012 that even if that turns out to be his best season, he can still very easily be a perennial MVP candidate. People do tend to overrate how much very young superstars improve, but Trout could give back nearly half his 2012 WAR and still be one of the very best in baseball.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
Projected 2018 stats: .287/.377/.573, 38 HR, 6.4 WAR
Harper didn't have the year that Trout did -- nobody did, really -- but he probably has more room to grow, especially in power potential. Even if he's a hair behind Trout long-term, there's no shame in that, and the Nats will be best served to at least sound out Harper on a long-term deal soon, though it's unlikely agent Scott Boras will bite.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected 2018 stats: 2.89 ERA, 202 K, 50 BB, 5.7 WAR
In 2018, Kershaw will be just 30, and in the long term, he's probably the safest pitcher in baseball. One of just two pitchers in the top 10 for 2018, Kershaw is already on a Hall of Fame path.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
Projected 2018 stats: .270/.369/.580, 38 HR, 5.5 WAR
This is his projection if he stays a Marlin, which seems unlikely given ownership's proclivity toward extreme thrift. Put Stanton in a park that favors right-handed sluggers, like Camden Yards, and he could move up the list.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Projected 2018 stats: .291/.368/.469, 18 HR, 5.3 WAR
While catchers are inherently risky, Posey has already survived a gruesome ankle injury and put up an MVP season just a year later. He's not going to hit .336 that often going forward, but he has staked his case as the best catcher in baseball.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Projected 2018 stats: .268/.336/.489, 26 HR, 5.3 WAR
He is generally believed to have plus-power potential, and the computer agrees with the scouts. As noted for Stanton, Camden's a good home for a right-handed power hitter. The only question now is if the O's play him at short, which this projection assumes. As a third baseman, he drops out of the top 10.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers
Projected 2018 stats: .274/.358/.475, 20 HR, 5.0 WAR
Profar is likely to start the season in Triple-A, thus delaying the Rangers' final decision on how to solve the middle-infield logjam. In the end, the Rangers will have to make the room for Profar, and if he is in fact the player traded, they better fill some other serious needs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
Projected 2018 stats: .293/.341/.478, 19 HR, 4.7 WAR
Can he stay at short? The stats have generally been more positive (or at least, less negative) on Castro's defense than the eye has been. Wherever he ends up, by 2018 he's likely to be one of the best hitters for average over the past decade, though he's not going to ever be a guy who racks up walks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
Projected 2018 stats: 2.91 ERA, 168 K, 47 BB, 4.5 WAR
With his Tommy John surgery behind him and the Nats being careful with him in 2012, he's a lot less risky than he was a year ago. One of Strasburg's top comps in ZiPS is Roger Clemens, and it's a testament to how accomplished Strasburg is (despite relatively little professional experience) that the comparison isn't ridiculous.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
Projected 2018 stats: .259/.349/.492, 28 HR, 4.4 WAR
Along with Freddie Freeman, who just missed the top 30, Heyward will hopefully anchor the middle of Atlanta's lineup for the next decade. Even if he never becomes a hitter for average, his power and glove still make him a star.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Projected 2018 stats: 3.47 ERA, 163 K, 48 BB, 4.4 WAR
Five years of 15 wins and Verlander will enter the 2018 season with roughly 200 wins at the age of 35. Even if he isn't the latest pitcher to be "The Last 300-Game Winner," Verlander is likely to be entering the homestretch of a Hall of Fame career and surpassing Hal Newhouser as the best pitcher ever in Tigers history.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
Projected 2018 stats: .254/.337/.418, 21 HR, 4.4 WAR
Zunino is in the most precarious position of any player on this list. He needed no time whatsoever to transition to professional ball after Seattle selected him third overall in the 2012 draft, terrorizing the Northwest League for a month and then continuing his trail of destruction after being promoted all the way to Double-A. However, the track record is so limited that his projection could change a lot over the next couple of years.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13. Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers
Projected 2018 stats: 3.50 ERA, 180 K, 69 BB, 4.3 WAR
It's easy to forget how young Darvish still is, having just turned 26 in August. He walked more batters than you would like in his MLB debut, but he still has a great deal of upside as he gets more comfortable with a new league in a new country.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14. Mat Latos, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Projected 2018 stats: 3.45 ERA, 163 K, 45 BB, 4.3 WAR
Johnny Cueto got more press, but for the second half of the season, it was Latos who was truly the staff ace. Still just 25 years old, Latos made his miserable April seem like a distant memory.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Projected 2018 stats: .273/.356/.520, 34 HR, 4.3 WAR
Ignore Rizzo's cup of coffee with the Padres, his .285/.342/.463 line with the Cubs in 2012 is a far more accurate representation of where he is as a player. The Theo Epstein Cubs aren't done rebuilding yet, but if they can round up a worthwhile third baseman, the infield will already be one of the best in baseball.
And the rest
16. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals: 4.2 WAR
17. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates: 4.2
18. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays: 4.2
19. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Nationals: 4.1
20. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners: 4.0
21. David Price, LHP, Rays: 4.0
22. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers: 3.9
23. Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox: 3.9
24. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: 3.9
25. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles: 3.8
26. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: 3.7
27. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: 3.7
28. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: 3.7
29. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: 3.6
30. Wil Myers, RF, Rays: 3.6
Will 2013 Be Justin Morneau’s Last Stand?
Once upon a time, Justin Morneau was a very solid player. He was never the player his most-valuable-player status would have seemed to convey, though he was still solid. But that time was more than two seasons ago, and as he enters a contract year in what will be age-32 season, it’s fair to wonder if this is Morneau’s last stand.
To be sure, Morneau is no scrub. Since the Integration Era began in 1947, he is one of 78 first basemen who has accumulated at least 20 WAR through age 31. He’s a plodder on the bases, but his bat and glove have both been well above league average throughout his career. He’s a four-time All-Star, won the aforementioned MVP Award in ’06, and finished second for the award in ’08 as well. That’s a pretty impressive resume.
From 2006-2010, he was one of the 25 best position players in the game, and was seventh-best among first basemen. Not a Hall of Fame track by any stretch, but a very good player who could be the second or third-best player on a championship club. And with Joe Mauer around to be the leader, Morneau had the luxury of being exactly that player. But then, the injuries came, to his knee, wrist and most distressing, to his brain, in the form of multiple concussions. Through his abbreviated 2010 campaign, Morneau was a .286/.358/.511 hitter. Since, he has hit a paltry .254/.317/.403. For the past two seasons, his 95 wRC+ was worse than that of several players who have been dealt/discarded in the past year, including Brett Wallace, Gaby Sanchez and Mike Carp.
Now, obviously Morneau’s contract made it harder to discard him. But that won’t be the case for much longer. This season is the last on the six-year contract extension that he signed back in 2008, and there is no club option attached to the deal either. And with Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham all under contract for 2014, Minnesota will certainly have no shortage of first-base candidates. Emotions seem to run deep in the Twins’ organization, and there may be a movement to keep Morneau given what he has meant to the organization, but he is going to have to do his part to make himself worth their while. And a first baseman who slugs in the low-.400’s and has a declining walk rate isn’t exactly a rare commodity.
And it’s not like Morneau would be in rarified company — plenty of first basemen have disappeared when they reached his age. As I mentioned earlier, 78 first basemen — including Morneau — have tallied 20+ WAR through the age of 31. Nine of those players are current — Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. We’ll leave them out of the sample, for the moment. Of the 69 players remaining, 26 of them — or 38 percent — were not able to accumulate another 5 WAR as first basemen. Recent players that fit this group include Frank Thomas, Richie Sexson, Mike Sweeney, Mo Vaughn, Wally Joyner and Cecil Fielder. Now, these players were not necessarily useless. Some of them, like Thomas for instance, went on to have productive finishing kicks as designated hitters. But since much of Morneau’s value comes from his glove, it would not seem that DH is a likely career path, so we’re only looking at first-base value here.
We’re down to 43 players in our sample now. Of the 43, another 17 players didn’t pile up 10 WAR for the remainder of their careers after their age-31 season. So, in other words, only 26 of the players here were able to contribute more than 10 WAR at first base after they had reached the point in their careers at which Morneau currently finds himself.
This data isn’t necessarily a death knell for Morneau. Far from it. Plenty of first basemen went on to be productive after their primes ended. Still, Morneau needs to show some sort of rejuvenation this season, or face becoming rapidly irrelevant. Taking a look at his projections doesn’t offer much encouragement. Of the five projections housed here at FanGraphs, none has Morneau reaching 600 plate appearances or more than 2.1 WAR. Bill James, the Fans and Steamer see him regaining a little bit of his offensive mojo, but Oliver and ZiPS don’t see him improving on 2012.
Certainly, the key for Morneau is going to be his plate discipline. Last season, he started swinging at a lot more pitches. Only 15 qualified hitters swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than did Morneau, but while he was swinging at more pitches, his contact percentage didn’t increase accordingly. As such, his swinging-strike percentage was essentially the highest of his career (it was higher in his 2003 cup of coffee, but that really doesn’t count). As a result, he wasn’t able to get as much loft on the ball — his fly-ball percentage was also the lowest mark since his ’03 cup of coffee.
Less power and less patience is not generally a desirable trend. But 2013 will represent a great — and perhaps the last — chance for Morneau to show that he can contribute in a meaningful way. He is healthy for the first time in what seems like forever. He played in three straight games at first base earlier this week, something that didn’t happen until late March last year, as he prepares to play first base for Canada in the World Baseball Classic. With improved health, particularly in his wrist, perhaps he will get back to the business of making hard contact. If he can’t though, 2013 may end up being Morneau’s last stand.
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To be sure, Morneau is no scrub. Since the Integration Era began in 1947, he is one of 78 first basemen who has accumulated at least 20 WAR through age 31. He’s a plodder on the bases, but his bat and glove have both been well above league average throughout his career. He’s a four-time All-Star, won the aforementioned MVP Award in ’06, and finished second for the award in ’08 as well. That’s a pretty impressive resume.
From 2006-2010, he was one of the 25 best position players in the game, and was seventh-best among first basemen. Not a Hall of Fame track by any stretch, but a very good player who could be the second or third-best player on a championship club. And with Joe Mauer around to be the leader, Morneau had the luxury of being exactly that player. But then, the injuries came, to his knee, wrist and most distressing, to his brain, in the form of multiple concussions. Through his abbreviated 2010 campaign, Morneau was a .286/.358/.511 hitter. Since, he has hit a paltry .254/.317/.403. For the past two seasons, his 95 wRC+ was worse than that of several players who have been dealt/discarded in the past year, including Brett Wallace, Gaby Sanchez and Mike Carp.
Now, obviously Morneau’s contract made it harder to discard him. But that won’t be the case for much longer. This season is the last on the six-year contract extension that he signed back in 2008, and there is no club option attached to the deal either. And with Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham all under contract for 2014, Minnesota will certainly have no shortage of first-base candidates. Emotions seem to run deep in the Twins’ organization, and there may be a movement to keep Morneau given what he has meant to the organization, but he is going to have to do his part to make himself worth their while. And a first baseman who slugs in the low-.400’s and has a declining walk rate isn’t exactly a rare commodity.
And it’s not like Morneau would be in rarified company — plenty of first basemen have disappeared when they reached his age. As I mentioned earlier, 78 first basemen — including Morneau — have tallied 20+ WAR through the age of 31. Nine of those players are current — Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. We’ll leave them out of the sample, for the moment. Of the 69 players remaining, 26 of them — or 38 percent — were not able to accumulate another 5 WAR as first basemen. Recent players that fit this group include Frank Thomas, Richie Sexson, Mike Sweeney, Mo Vaughn, Wally Joyner and Cecil Fielder. Now, these players were not necessarily useless. Some of them, like Thomas for instance, went on to have productive finishing kicks as designated hitters. But since much of Morneau’s value comes from his glove, it would not seem that DH is a likely career path, so we’re only looking at first-base value here.
We’re down to 43 players in our sample now. Of the 43, another 17 players didn’t pile up 10 WAR for the remainder of their careers after their age-31 season. So, in other words, only 26 of the players here were able to contribute more than 10 WAR at first base after they had reached the point in their careers at which Morneau currently finds himself.
This data isn’t necessarily a death knell for Morneau. Far from it. Plenty of first basemen went on to be productive after their primes ended. Still, Morneau needs to show some sort of rejuvenation this season, or face becoming rapidly irrelevant. Taking a look at his projections doesn’t offer much encouragement. Of the five projections housed here at FanGraphs, none has Morneau reaching 600 plate appearances or more than 2.1 WAR. Bill James, the Fans and Steamer see him regaining a little bit of his offensive mojo, but Oliver and ZiPS don’t see him improving on 2012.
Certainly, the key for Morneau is going to be his plate discipline. Last season, he started swinging at a lot more pitches. Only 15 qualified hitters swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than did Morneau, but while he was swinging at more pitches, his contact percentage didn’t increase accordingly. As such, his swinging-strike percentage was essentially the highest of his career (it was higher in his 2003 cup of coffee, but that really doesn’t count). As a result, he wasn’t able to get as much loft on the ball — his fly-ball percentage was also the lowest mark since his ’03 cup of coffee.
Less power and less patience is not generally a desirable trend. But 2013 will represent a great — and perhaps the last — chance for Morneau to show that he can contribute in a meaningful way. He is healthy for the first time in what seems like forever. He played in three straight games at first base earlier this week, something that didn’t happen until late March last year, as he prepares to play first base for Canada in the World Baseball Classic. With improved health, particularly in his wrist, perhaps he will get back to the business of making hard contact. If he can’t though, 2013 may end up being Morneau’s last stand.
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Strike Zone Generosity and Team Pitching Success.
Everything, ultimately, has to come down to runs. Or wins, I suppose, but wins and runs are strongly correlated. By boiling measures and evaluations down to runs, we’re given an understanding of how much they matter at the end of the day. We know how to value a guy who hits a lot of home runs. We know how to value another guy who’s said to be great in the field. Runs and wins are at the core of performance analysis, because runs and wins are what teams are trying to add to get better.
When you talk about catcher pitch-framing, one generally ends up talking about the difference between a ball and a strike. It might seem like a missed call here and there shouldn’t matter — these are just individual pitches! — but each call does matter, and as they pile up, they matter more. Toward the end of last season, Joe Maddon said something to the effect of Jose Molina saving his team 50 runs or so because of his receiving. Catchers are ranked on their framing by runs saved or cost, and this is calculated by using the run-value difference between a ball and a strike. Each season, the best framers seem to be tens of runs better than the worst framers. When you’re talking about tens of runs, you’re talking about a significant effect.
But the actual effect, presumably, is quite complicated, in the way that park factors are quite complicated. You can look at framing in isolation, and that’s how you can end up with differences of tens of runs. But it isn’t as simple as just taking a pitch and making it a ball or a strike. That pitch will have an effect on the next pitch, which will have an effect on the next pitch, and so on. Perhaps, after a ball, a strike is more likely to follow. Perhaps, after a strike, a ball is more likely to follow. How much does framing, or the size of the strike zone, make a difference on a team level, when you include the whole picture?
Following, you will see charts. Preceding the charts is this explanation of what you’re looking at. For the trillionth time, I’ve used FanGraphs’ plate-discipline data to come up with expected strikes totals for individual team pitching staffs from 2008-2012. I then calculated the difference between actual strikes and expected strikes, and put that on a per-game scale, where the average game has about 78 called pitches. I then adjusted the numbers to set the year-to-year league average at zero. A Diff/Game of 1.0 refers to about one extra strike per game. A Diff/Game of -3.0 refers to about three fewer strikes per game. I calculated every team’s Diff/Game for every year since 2008, and then I plotted some performance metrics against them. The charts begin now.
Looking at team ERA- against Diff/Game, we see a downward trend, but the relationship is weak. Still, the average ERA- of the 15 worst teams in Diff/Game is 105. The average ERA- of the 15 best teams in Diff/Game is 96. Our slope is -1.8 — that is, for each additional strike, ERA- goes down by nearly two points. There’s something here, as noisy as it is.
Of course, we know that ERA and thus ERA- can be noisy. FIP- offers a little stabilization, and here we see a slightly stronger relationship, albeit still a weak one. The slope of our line is about -1.5, but the data sure looks scattered.
And here’s our strongest relationship of the three, where we just isolate strikeouts, walks, and fly balls. The slope, again, is about -1.5, and the average of the 15 worst teams in Diff/Game is 104 while the average of the 15 best teams in Diff/Game is 96. There’s a lot of noise here, still, and that’s to be expected, but it sure feels like we’re not measuring nothing. By this measure, at least, getting a more generous strike zone is helping pitching staffs prevent runs. When you put it that way it sounds silly and obvious, but one also has to notice the fairly weak relationship. In between the pitches that can be framed, there are a lot of other pitches, and it isn’t clear the effect a well-framed pitch or a poorly-framed pitch has on the next pitch in the sequence.
Potentially of interest:
We hardly see any relationship between strike rate and Diff/Game. Yeah, the slope of the line is positive, but the correlation is tissue paper. This hints at the interconnectedness of it all, and speaks to the danger of thinking about pitch-framing in isolation. Not all pitches are borderline pitches.
For the record, if we go all the way back to the first chart, with ERA-, recall that the slope of the line is about -1.8. Over a full season, this works out to a little over ten runs saved for each additional strike per game over average. Since 2008, 34 teams have finished with a Diff/Game of at least 1.0, while nine teams have finished with a Diff/Game of at least 2.0. Two teams have finished at at least 3.0. At the other end, 30 teams have finished at at least -1.0, with eight teams at at least -2.0 and one team below -3.0. None of the worst 15 teams in Diff/Game finished with an average or better FIP-, which seems worth noting.
The top team of the last five years in Diff/Game? The 2009 Atlanta Braves. The runner-up? The 2011 Atlanta Braves. In third place? The 2008 Atlanta Braves. The 2010 Atlanta Braves show up in sixth, and the 2012 Atlanta Braves show up in seventh. Brian McCann and David Ross have been all right, at least in this department. And also in many other departments too.
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When you talk about catcher pitch-framing, one generally ends up talking about the difference between a ball and a strike. It might seem like a missed call here and there shouldn’t matter — these are just individual pitches! — but each call does matter, and as they pile up, they matter more. Toward the end of last season, Joe Maddon said something to the effect of Jose Molina saving his team 50 runs or so because of his receiving. Catchers are ranked on their framing by runs saved or cost, and this is calculated by using the run-value difference between a ball and a strike. Each season, the best framers seem to be tens of runs better than the worst framers. When you’re talking about tens of runs, you’re talking about a significant effect.
But the actual effect, presumably, is quite complicated, in the way that park factors are quite complicated. You can look at framing in isolation, and that’s how you can end up with differences of tens of runs. But it isn’t as simple as just taking a pitch and making it a ball or a strike. That pitch will have an effect on the next pitch, which will have an effect on the next pitch, and so on. Perhaps, after a ball, a strike is more likely to follow. Perhaps, after a strike, a ball is more likely to follow. How much does framing, or the size of the strike zone, make a difference on a team level, when you include the whole picture?
Following, you will see charts. Preceding the charts is this explanation of what you’re looking at. For the trillionth time, I’ve used FanGraphs’ plate-discipline data to come up with expected strikes totals for individual team pitching staffs from 2008-2012. I then calculated the difference between actual strikes and expected strikes, and put that on a per-game scale, where the average game has about 78 called pitches. I then adjusted the numbers to set the year-to-year league average at zero. A Diff/Game of 1.0 refers to about one extra strike per game. A Diff/Game of -3.0 refers to about three fewer strikes per game. I calculated every team’s Diff/Game for every year since 2008, and then I plotted some performance metrics against them. The charts begin now.
Looking at team ERA- against Diff/Game, we see a downward trend, but the relationship is weak. Still, the average ERA- of the 15 worst teams in Diff/Game is 105. The average ERA- of the 15 best teams in Diff/Game is 96. Our slope is -1.8 — that is, for each additional strike, ERA- goes down by nearly two points. There’s something here, as noisy as it is.
Of course, we know that ERA and thus ERA- can be noisy. FIP- offers a little stabilization, and here we see a slightly stronger relationship, albeit still a weak one. The slope of our line is about -1.5, but the data sure looks scattered.
And here’s our strongest relationship of the three, where we just isolate strikeouts, walks, and fly balls. The slope, again, is about -1.5, and the average of the 15 worst teams in Diff/Game is 104 while the average of the 15 best teams in Diff/Game is 96. There’s a lot of noise here, still, and that’s to be expected, but it sure feels like we’re not measuring nothing. By this measure, at least, getting a more generous strike zone is helping pitching staffs prevent runs. When you put it that way it sounds silly and obvious, but one also has to notice the fairly weak relationship. In between the pitches that can be framed, there are a lot of other pitches, and it isn’t clear the effect a well-framed pitch or a poorly-framed pitch has on the next pitch in the sequence.
Potentially of interest:
We hardly see any relationship between strike rate and Diff/Game. Yeah, the slope of the line is positive, but the correlation is tissue paper. This hints at the interconnectedness of it all, and speaks to the danger of thinking about pitch-framing in isolation. Not all pitches are borderline pitches.
For the record, if we go all the way back to the first chart, with ERA-, recall that the slope of the line is about -1.8. Over a full season, this works out to a little over ten runs saved for each additional strike per game over average. Since 2008, 34 teams have finished with a Diff/Game of at least 1.0, while nine teams have finished with a Diff/Game of at least 2.0. Two teams have finished at at least 3.0. At the other end, 30 teams have finished at at least -1.0, with eight teams at at least -2.0 and one team below -3.0. None of the worst 15 teams in Diff/Game finished with an average or better FIP-, which seems worth noting.
The top team of the last five years in Diff/Game? The 2009 Atlanta Braves. The runner-up? The 2011 Atlanta Braves. In third place? The 2008 Atlanta Braves. The 2010 Atlanta Braves show up in sixth, and the 2012 Atlanta Braves show up in seventh. Brian McCann and David Ross have been all right, at least in this department. And also in many other departments too.
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Robinson Cano and Second Base Aging Curves.
The Yankees have a long standing policy against negotiating contract extensions for players under contract, preferring instead to wait until the player reaches free agency to hash out a new deal. They even held that line with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, two of the iconic players in franchise history, so it hasn’t just been selectively applied here and there. So, it was pretty interesting to hear that the Yankees are ignoring that policy with Robinson Cano, and have confirmed that they recently made Scott Boras a “significant offer” to get him from becoming a free agent after the season.
Brian Cashman’s answer for why they’ve changed course with Cano:
“Since we’re the team, we have a right to change our minds and adjust the policy whenever, especially ownership,” Cashman said. “It’s not like it’s a country club, and here’s the code of conduct that you can’t deviate from. We’ve had a history of doing things a certain way, but it doesn’t mean that it has to be that way every day.”
For the Yankees to shift policy and extend Cano an offer now suggests that they’re both a little scared of what his price might be if he gets to free agency, and that they’re comfortable with how well he’ll age that they don’t need to see his age-30 season before deciding to sign up for the rest of his decline phase. The fear about his price if the Dodgers get involved is certainly valid, but should the fact that Cano is a second baseman scare the Yankees away from making a long term commitment to him before they have gathered all the information possible by letting him play out the 2013 season?
Second baseman, if you haven’t heard, have a reputation for falling apart without much notice. Edgardo Alfonso, Carlos Baerga, Marcus Giles, Chuck Knoblauch, and even Roberto Alomar all went from being pretty terrific players to completely unproductive in a hurry. Most recently, Chase Utley has seen his production tumble, as injuries have begun to take their toll, and he’s been less productive at the plate than he was during his prime. The anecdotal evidence about the detrimental affects of playing the position — taking hard slides while turning the double play is the most often cited reason — are there, but anecdotal evidence can be selectively applied, and Cano is clearly a better player than most of the guys who fell apart earlier than expected. How concerned should the Yankees be about making a long term commitment to a second baseman headed for his age-30 season?
The evidence suggests that he’s not any more of a risk than a great player at any other position on the field. Over the last 50 years, there have been six second baseman (Cano included) who have put up a 130 wRC+ or better from ages 26 to 29. Here’s how the list of second baseman since 1963 who spent their prime years just bashing the baseball:
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Chase Utley 2,687 9% 16% 0.236 0.330 0.305 0.385 0.541 0.395 137 57.1 18.8 31.0
Joe Morgan 2,725 15% 8% 0.157 0.280 0.276 0.389 0.433 0.375 135 12.0 22.5 30.1
Rod Carew 2,555 10% 8% 0.100 0.372 0.348 0.410 0.449 0.386 143 2.0 8.1 25.5
Robinson Cano 2,748 7% 12% 0.220 0.323 0.314 0.365 0.534 0.384 138 3.2 - 24.3
**** McAuliffe 2,160 14% 16% 0.187 0.274 0.254 0.361 0.441 0.361 134 15.0 (3.6) 21.8
Craig Biggio 2,612 12% 13% 0.155 0.323 0.294 0.390 0.449 0.374 134 (20.0) 6.7 19.7
As you can see, Cano has put himself in some pretty good company. Now, here’s how the other five players on that list performed starting with their age-31 season, which is the years that the Yankees would be buying out with a long term deal for Cano.
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Joe Morgan 5,390 17% 9% 0.163 0.272 0.270 0.396 0.433 0.376 136 (25.0) 39.5 49.5
Craig Biggio 7,299 8% 15% 0.167 0.308 0.279 0.357 0.446 0.351 110 (29.0) 18.6 36.8
Rod Carew 4,915 11% 9% 0.096 0.355 0.327 0.403 0.424 0.370 130 12.0 (5. 31.4
Chase Utley 1,327 11% 12% 0.169 0.274 0.264 0.367 0.433 0.351 119 24.0 12.5 12.6
**** McAuliffe 1,735 12% 13% 0.141 0.245 0.231 0.324 0.372 0.319 98 (9.0) (0.3) 6.8
Finally, here are the same players, just with the changes in both their playing time and their production in that playing time during the two different timeframes.
Name 26-29 PA/Year 31+ PA/Year 26-29 WAR/600 31+ WAR/600 PA% Decline WAR% Decline
Joe Morgan 681 539 6.6 5.5 21% 17%
Craig Biggio 653 664 4.5 3.0 -2% 33%
Rod Carew 639 546 6.0 3.8 15% 36%
Chase Utley 672 442 6.9 5.7 34% 18%
**** McAuliffe 540 434 6.1 2.4 20% 61%
Average 637 525 6.0 4.1 18% 33%
Overall, the group lost an average of about 100 plate appearances per year and went from playing like +6 win players to playing like +4 win players when they did take the field. McAuliffe had the biggest decline, as he was essentially done as a useful player by age 34, but one guy falling apart out of five isn’t the clear trend that the reputation of aging second baseman would suggest. Even including McAuliffe, these five players averaged 3.5 WAR per season after they turned 31. Hardly a group that just fell apart after their prime was over.
If we give Cano a projection of just below the group’s average performance for his age 31-40 seasons — Utley’s further decline will likely pull the +3.5 WAR per season average down slightly as he gets older — assuming he’ll have enough leverage to land a nine year deal, the Yankees would be paying for around +30 WAR over the life of the deal. If you assume something like 5% inflation annually over the next nine years, the average price of a win during Cano’s contract would be in the $7 million per win range, which would place a fair market deal in the range of $210 million. Projecting long term inflation isn’t easy, especially with the varying television deals being struck lately, so that might even be a bit of an undershot — we saw most of the premium free agents this year sign for more than the crowd expected when the winter began.
There’s no question that Scott Boras is going to be using the Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Joey Votto contracts as his starting points in negotiations. Votto signed away his age 30-39 seasons for $225 million, and was two years away from free agency when he got that contract. Fielder signed his 28-36 seasons for $214 million, but isn’t as good as good of a player as Cano and had his market limited to AL teams because of his body type. Pujols signed his age 32-41 seasons for $240 million, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the contract Boras tried to beat if he gets Cano to free agency.
At some point in the near future, Robinson Cano is going to become a very, very rich man. The fact that he plays second base probably won’t hurt him in negotiations much, as the evidence that great second baseman age worse than other positions doesn’t really hold up very well. Cano won’t be a +6 win player in his 30s, but he doesn’t have to be to be worth $200+ million on his next deal. If the Yankees want to keep him from free agency, their “generous offer” is almost certainly going to have to start with a two.
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Brian Cashman’s answer for why they’ve changed course with Cano:
“Since we’re the team, we have a right to change our minds and adjust the policy whenever, especially ownership,” Cashman said. “It’s not like it’s a country club, and here’s the code of conduct that you can’t deviate from. We’ve had a history of doing things a certain way, but it doesn’t mean that it has to be that way every day.”
For the Yankees to shift policy and extend Cano an offer now suggests that they’re both a little scared of what his price might be if he gets to free agency, and that they’re comfortable with how well he’ll age that they don’t need to see his age-30 season before deciding to sign up for the rest of his decline phase. The fear about his price if the Dodgers get involved is certainly valid, but should the fact that Cano is a second baseman scare the Yankees away from making a long term commitment to him before they have gathered all the information possible by letting him play out the 2013 season?
Second baseman, if you haven’t heard, have a reputation for falling apart without much notice. Edgardo Alfonso, Carlos Baerga, Marcus Giles, Chuck Knoblauch, and even Roberto Alomar all went from being pretty terrific players to completely unproductive in a hurry. Most recently, Chase Utley has seen his production tumble, as injuries have begun to take their toll, and he’s been less productive at the plate than he was during his prime. The anecdotal evidence about the detrimental affects of playing the position — taking hard slides while turning the double play is the most often cited reason — are there, but anecdotal evidence can be selectively applied, and Cano is clearly a better player than most of the guys who fell apart earlier than expected. How concerned should the Yankees be about making a long term commitment to a second baseman headed for his age-30 season?
The evidence suggests that he’s not any more of a risk than a great player at any other position on the field. Over the last 50 years, there have been six second baseman (Cano included) who have put up a 130 wRC+ or better from ages 26 to 29. Here’s how the list of second baseman since 1963 who spent their prime years just bashing the baseball:
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Chase Utley 2,687 9% 16% 0.236 0.330 0.305 0.385 0.541 0.395 137 57.1 18.8 31.0
Joe Morgan 2,725 15% 8% 0.157 0.280 0.276 0.389 0.433 0.375 135 12.0 22.5 30.1
Rod Carew 2,555 10% 8% 0.100 0.372 0.348 0.410 0.449 0.386 143 2.0 8.1 25.5
Robinson Cano 2,748 7% 12% 0.220 0.323 0.314 0.365 0.534 0.384 138 3.2 - 24.3
**** McAuliffe 2,160 14% 16% 0.187 0.274 0.254 0.361 0.441 0.361 134 15.0 (3.6) 21.8
Craig Biggio 2,612 12% 13% 0.155 0.323 0.294 0.390 0.449 0.374 134 (20.0) 6.7 19.7
As you can see, Cano has put himself in some pretty good company. Now, here’s how the other five players on that list performed starting with their age-31 season, which is the years that the Yankees would be buying out with a long term deal for Cano.
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Joe Morgan 5,390 17% 9% 0.163 0.272 0.270 0.396 0.433 0.376 136 (25.0) 39.5 49.5
Craig Biggio 7,299 8% 15% 0.167 0.308 0.279 0.357 0.446 0.351 110 (29.0) 18.6 36.8
Rod Carew 4,915 11% 9% 0.096 0.355 0.327 0.403 0.424 0.370 130 12.0 (5. 31.4
Chase Utley 1,327 11% 12% 0.169 0.274 0.264 0.367 0.433 0.351 119 24.0 12.5 12.6
**** McAuliffe 1,735 12% 13% 0.141 0.245 0.231 0.324 0.372 0.319 98 (9.0) (0.3) 6.8
Finally, here are the same players, just with the changes in both their playing time and their production in that playing time during the two different timeframes.
Name 26-29 PA/Year 31+ PA/Year 26-29 WAR/600 31+ WAR/600 PA% Decline WAR% Decline
Joe Morgan 681 539 6.6 5.5 21% 17%
Craig Biggio 653 664 4.5 3.0 -2% 33%
Rod Carew 639 546 6.0 3.8 15% 36%
Chase Utley 672 442 6.9 5.7 34% 18%
**** McAuliffe 540 434 6.1 2.4 20% 61%
Average 637 525 6.0 4.1 18% 33%
Overall, the group lost an average of about 100 plate appearances per year and went from playing like +6 win players to playing like +4 win players when they did take the field. McAuliffe had the biggest decline, as he was essentially done as a useful player by age 34, but one guy falling apart out of five isn’t the clear trend that the reputation of aging second baseman would suggest. Even including McAuliffe, these five players averaged 3.5 WAR per season after they turned 31. Hardly a group that just fell apart after their prime was over.
If we give Cano a projection of just below the group’s average performance for his age 31-40 seasons — Utley’s further decline will likely pull the +3.5 WAR per season average down slightly as he gets older — assuming he’ll have enough leverage to land a nine year deal, the Yankees would be paying for around +30 WAR over the life of the deal. If you assume something like 5% inflation annually over the next nine years, the average price of a win during Cano’s contract would be in the $7 million per win range, which would place a fair market deal in the range of $210 million. Projecting long term inflation isn’t easy, especially with the varying television deals being struck lately, so that might even be a bit of an undershot — we saw most of the premium free agents this year sign for more than the crowd expected when the winter began.
There’s no question that Scott Boras is going to be using the Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Joey Votto contracts as his starting points in negotiations. Votto signed away his age 30-39 seasons for $225 million, and was two years away from free agency when he got that contract. Fielder signed his 28-36 seasons for $214 million, but isn’t as good as good of a player as Cano and had his market limited to AL teams because of his body type. Pujols signed his age 32-41 seasons for $240 million, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the contract Boras tried to beat if he gets Cano to free agency.
At some point in the near future, Robinson Cano is going to become a very, very rich man. The fact that he plays second base probably won’t hurt him in negotiations much, as the evidence that great second baseman age worse than other positions doesn’t really hold up very well. Cano won’t be a +6 win player in his 30s, but he doesn’t have to be to be worth $200+ million on his next deal. If the Yankees want to keep him from free agency, their “generous offer” is almost certainly going to have to start with a two.
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