2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Someone has to take a flier on Sizemore, don't they?

I wonder if he becomes a post all-star break signing for a team needing a replacement or maybe just a potential lift.
 
Funny that you mention that, being a Timberwolves fan.

I was just thinking the other day that Grady coming back would go about as well as Brandon Roy coming back.
 
can I join a fantasy league 
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and who's getting mlb tv this year?? 
nthat.gif


ima drop the $130..can access it through my computer, ps3, and iphone.......me gusta....I had it last year but I don't think it would let you link it to your ps3 (was separate)
 
Mr Marcus said:
can I join a fantasy league 
nerd.gif




and who's getting mlb tv this year?? 
nthat.gif



ima drop the $130..can access it through my computer, ps3, and iphone.......me gusta....I had it last year but I don't think it would let you link it to your ps3 (was separate)
Click to expand...

is $130 the going price? i'll need to sign up for this as well too i think
 
Yea it's $130 for the ultimate package...and yea the at bat app is so dope....nba should take notes
 
Im down for a fantasy league if someone makes one. I cane in 2nd in the 2007 league and never got invited again :lol :{
 
Count me in for a fantasy baseball league.

Really wanna be in a competitve one as I wanna watch alot of baseball this year
 
I'm a yankees fan but i know the blue jays are going to be good. They basically robbed the marlins good players, I just feel bad for the Miami fan base they had so much hope last year.
 
AL East will be very interesting.

Blue Jays on paper look primed for a division title.

Baltimore fell just short of a division title with basically a grit and grind roster. Can they repeat last year's magic?

Tampa Bay has been really good the last 5 years and have good young talent. I think they'll finish top two this season.

New York is old, really old. But they're experienced and have only missed the playoffs once since 1995. This could be the 2nd time since then. But I wouldn't count them out.

Boston...:{ the only interesting thing about this team is that their sellout streak is going to end this year. Horrible product last year and probably going to repeat that again this year. I think we all knew the FO was a mess the moment Francona was canned and they showed it by hiring Valentine. And for the first time in sports history a front office fired the players instead of the manager, only to fire the manager later :lol
 
The stats I can't live without.
Having a player's WAR (wins above replacement), even if you know which version of WAR it is, is not in and of itself terribly useful unless you know the breakdown of the numbers that went into it.



WAR is just the end of a process of normalizing different areas of a player's game -- for a hitter, that's offense, defense, and baserunning, with an adjustment for the offensive standards of his position -- so they can be added together into a single number.



Any system of valuing production should distill a player's contributions into a number that represents runs added/saved if it's a positive contribution and runs cost if it's a negative one. If you just have a player's WAR, you have no idea how he contributed to his team's success or lack thereof, and you can't assess the figure's reliability because you don't know how much came from, say, offense, which is one of the easiest things to measure accurately, and how much from defense, which is one of the hardest.

And because players create value in different ways, it affects the way we evaluate them. For example, I'm a little less confident in Michael Bourn holding his value going forward because so much of his WAR over the last few years came from his legs -- great defense and value added on the bases. Not only are the defensive metrics a little less precise than the offensive ones (although they are a huge improvement over what we had 10 years ago), but having the breakdown allows us to see how much Bourn depends on his speed to be a valuable player. If his legs go with age, or he suffers one or more significant leg injuries, his value will drop quickly. If his value largely came from his bat, we might have other concerns, but not the same one about his speed.



Unless you're comparing two players whose WAR figures were so far apart that there is no question who was the more valuable player -- say, Mike Trout versus Miguel Cabrera last year -- having WAR by itself is nothing but a starting point without an end.



With that in mind, here's a glance at a few of the stats I always use when I pull up a player's stat page on FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference to at least get me started in thinking about the player's value:



wOBA (weighted on-base average)


This is the best single metric I've seen so far for measuring a hitter's production on a rate basis. That is, it tells you how productive the hitter was when he played, but doesn't address how much he played and thus is missing one component required to tell you exactly how much value he contributed.



Since I'm more often concerned with looking forward than with assessing past value, I spend far more time looking at rate stats than at cumulative stats. wOBA takes the seven ways a batter can reach base safely for which he should receive some credit -- singles, doubles, triples, homers, unintentional walks, times hit by pitch and times reaching on error -- weights each of them relative to their run-producing value and divides it by plate appearances. The weights produce a ratio that usually sits in the .300-.450 range, making it similar to the scale for OBP and thus a little familiar to our eyes. If you want one number to tell you how good a hitter was, this is my choice.



OBP and slugging


The two best basic indicators of what a hitter did -- incomplete, to be sure, but a solid starting point. OBP tells us how often the hitter reached base; the converse of this, 1 minus OBP, tells us how often he made an out. A hitter with a .300 OBP made an out in 70 percent of his plate appearances, which is not a desirable trait in anyone but a pitcher.



Slugging percentage, and its sibling isolated power (SLG minus AVG), give a quick and familiar measure of power production. Slugging is flawed because it weights each base achieved equally; the hardest base to reach is first, and the difference between a double and a triple is usually in the hitter's speed rather than its ability to advance runners already on base. Despite that, slugging, like OBP, is a good starting point for further analysis.



But for the love of Pythagoras, please don't add the two things together and pretend the result means anything. It is a massive mathfail, something the Millennium Bridge engineers might understand. You have two fractions with different denominators -- OBP gives us a rate per plate appearance, while slugging gives us a rate per at-bat -- so you can't simply add the two without accounting for that.



OPS, the fauxbermetric stat that results from a straight addition of the two, ignores the difference in value between the two -- a point of extra OBP is worth a lot more to a team's run-scoring potential than a point of slugging.



Consider two players with an .800 OPS: One has a .350 OBP and a .450 slugging, and one has a .400 OBP and a .400 slugging. The second player is clearly more valuable: He makes fewer outs than the first player, and the number of additional times he's on base exceeds the number of extra bases added by the first player. OPS wouldn't tell you that, but wOBA would.



Moving from wOBA to OBP and slugging helps you further understand what made a player valuable or not valuable, without losing sight of just how good he was overall relative to his peers or forcing you to connect two pieces that just don't fit together.



Strikeout and walk percentage


There are two things a pitcher can do on his own that he can "control," in the vernacular of baseball analytics -- he can strike a guy out, and he can walk him. As the famous sabermetrician Captain Obvious once said, you want pitchers who do a lot of the former and not much of the latter.



These ratios are not subject to the noise present in pitcher stats that incorporate hit rates, balls in play or even home run rates -- those data are important, too, but they require further interpretation, including park effects and adjustments for defensive help, bullpen help or harm, and just plain old randomness. If a pitcher can miss bats, it'll show up in his strikeout rate -- and if a plus slider isn't missing bats, maybe it's not plus after all.



If a pitcher has plus control, he shouldn't walk guys. If he walks too many guys, it may be control, or it may be mechanical, or it may be approach, but whatever the reason, it is, to use the technical term, no bueno. As an aside, I always prefer to remove intentional walks from pitching ratios, since they're a manager's decision, not a reflection of pitcher skill.


It's more instructive to use strikeout and walk percentage -- as opposed to strikeouts and walks per nine innings -- because some pitchers face more batters per inning than other pitchers, which means they get more chances to strike out or walk them.


Ground ball percentage


Again, it's best expressed as a ratio of the total, in this case of all balls put into play if possible, although we often make do with field outs (ground ball/fly ball ratio) as a proxy. A pitcher's ability to keep the ball on the ground indicates two things -- that he might not be homer-prone (assuming he doesn't have a below-average fastball or a nasty habit of hanging curveballs) and that he might be able to generate double plays.



A ground ball in play is slightly more likely than a fly ball in play to become a hit, but less likely to go for extra bases; as you might imagine, a line drive put into play is the most likely type of batted ball to end up as a hit, but line drive rates don't appear to be within most pitchers' control and the data is rife with classification problems. Ground ball data is more reliable, and can help answer the question of whether that sinker actually sinks in meaningful terms.



BABIP


Batting average on balls in play is simply the rate at which a pitcher allowed a hit on balls put into play -- so we're deleting strikeouts, walks and typically home runs (although I think it's fair to ask whether HR should always be removed here), and just looking at balls that entered the field of play and whether they became hits or not.



The central conceit is that pitchers have little or no control over this rate, given a large enough sample size, if we adjust for park and defense. Knuckleballers are an exception, and really awful pitchers are an exception in that they can only control how quickly they walk off the mound after eight or nine straight hits on balls in play.



One of the most interesting areas of research right now is into how much of the year-to-year variation in pitchers' BABIPs is noise, and whether there's any signal in there at all that might help teams make better decisions on pitcher transactions or usage.



The leaders from 2010 to 2012 in BABIP, for example, include some players who have been helped by great defenses, like Jeremy Hellickson and Jered Weaver (a fly ball pitcher in a fly ball park who's had Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout behind him a lot), but also includes guys like Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander, who are all great power pitchers but don't have obvious explanations for low BABIPs besides general awesomeness. Is that just luck, or randomness, or are they able to cause small reductions in their BABIPs because of the type of contact they induce?



There are a lot of good pieces online that attack these questions, and I'm sure even more proprietary work done by teams' analytics departments (except the Phillies, who would like to remind you that they don't have one). In the meantime, though, I want to see a pitcher's BABIP, this year and in the past few years, when I start to think about how to assess his performance and look forward from it.
 
WAR's most divisive players.
One of the more controversial baseball stats today is the beloved/dreaded wins above replacement. The commonly used abbreviation, WAR, is fitting given the stat's status as one of the biggest battlegrounds between the old school and the new school.



There are three commonly cited versions of WAR: One each by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, and another by Baseball Prospectus that is called WARP. All attempt to measure the same thing.



Complicating this epic struggle is that while the various flavors of WAR tend to broadly agree on most players -- they all concur that Justin Verlander is amazing and Jeff Francoeur is, well, a very nice dude. There are always a handful of players that the stats disagree on.



Today, we're going to look at the players the WAR systems disagree on the most and, in the American judicial tradition, decide on a verdict.



First, a little background on WAR. Whether we do it explicitly with a straight calculation such as WAR, or implicitly using different statistics or the ol' eyeball test, on a fundamental level we all evaluate players based on wins when we choose our preference for one player or the other. The differences is how we get there and how we express the results.



WAR systems agree broadly because there's a great deal of research on the value of a homer, or a strikeout, etc. But there are things that aren't so obvious. How exactly do you apportion credit for a soft fly ball? Do we give credit to the more predictive elements of pitching (FIP) or to the bottom line results (ERA)? How poor does a player have to be to have no value to the team's winning?



These questions aren't cut and dry, so there's disagreement among the WAR stats. Disagreement isn't necessarily a problem, as disagreement forces us to ask tougher questions. There's a tremendous amount of disagreement among scientists on the eventual fate of the universe, but we still use the scienctific method to resolve questions rather than a Magic 8 Ball.



So who are the most divisive players among the WARs in 2012? Let's take a look.



Note: From here on out, the WAR systems will be abbreviated as bWAR (Baseball-Reference), fWAR (FanGraphs) or WARP (Baseball Prospectus).




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Matt Harrison, LHP, Texas Rangers
2012: numbers: bWAR 6.2, fWAR 3.8, WARP 1.6



If all you knew about Matt Harrison was his 2012 WAR, you'd be mighty confused, unable to decide whether Harrison is a Cy Young candidate, a very good pitcher, or a mid-rotation starter. Part of the difference here is that bWAR evaluates a pitcher's defensive support directly, through evaluation of the defensive players and their short-term defensive stats, while FanGraphs uses FIP, which looks at the pitcher's peripheral stats, such as strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. BP uses FRA, which is FIP-like, but contains information on pitch sequencing and specific defensive support.



The verdict: Harrison did outperform his FIP in 2012, but for his career, an ERA 0.19 better than his FIP to date isn't really signficant yet. Maybe he becomes Tom Glavine in hindsight, but I think fWAR is the closest here. I sentence BP to 6-12 months of listening to angry Rangers fans.




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Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
2012 numbers: bWAR 3.5, fWAR 4.0, WARP, 0.3



All three of the metrics define "replacement level" a little bit differently -- with BP's being the highest -- and that accounts for some of the difference here, but far more is due to the difference of opinion on Phillips's defensive ability.


BP's FRAA doesn't like Phillips' defense, having him at -21 runs for his career while FanGraphs and defensive runs saved (the defensive component of bWAR) have him at +64 and +49, respectively, over their careers. Adding in Sean Smith's Total Zone (-16 career) and you have one of the bigger split decisions among fielding stats, which tend to be comparable long-term.


The verdict: I think bWAR and fWAR are closer to the truth here, but there's a chance that they have overrated his defense to some degree. While I think that Phillips is a solid player, his similar BA/HR/RBI masked the fact that he had the worst OPS of his career and he's at an age (31) where you start to see declines from middle infielders.




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Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants
2012 numbers: bWAR -2.1, fWAR 1.5, WARP, -0.3



Lincecum's nearly average fWAR comes down to its reliance on FIP, which was at 4.18. Even if you're not into peripheral stats, was Lincecum really the worst pitcher you saw in 2012? He was an extremely frustrating pitcher to watch all season, but he was also still able to rack up the strikeouts (190 in 186 innings).



While you can't ignore the runs allowed (5.18 ERA), did he really look worse than Ervin Santana or Ricky Romero, who had seasons that were essentially unmitigated disasters?



The verdict: BP is right on this one. Baseball Reference founder Sean Forman is sentenced to watching 18 Nick Blackburn starts.




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Martin Prado, 3B/LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 numbers: bWAR 5.4, fWAR 5.9, WARP 2.3


Here's another case of disagreement on defensive value, with the first two WARs seeing Prado as a Gold Glover in left and the third having him at 10 runs below average.


The verdict: In this case, there's a broad consensus otherwise on Prado's defensive performance in left being very good -- and the positive spin on Prado's defense does seem more in line with what you expect from a former middle infielder with a strong arm and who hasn't had multiple surgeries on his knee.




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Michael Bourn, CF, Cleveland Indians
2012 numbers: bWAR 6.0, fWAR 6.4, WARP 3.7



bWAR and fWAR agree that Bourn is a fabulous defender, and both had him at more than 20 runs better than average in 2012. I'm a bit skeptical, and it generally pays to be conservative with defensive numbers -- a year of defensive stats is roughly as useful as two months of offensive stats -- so that's a pretty aggressive statement.



The verdict: UZR and DRS have Bourn at only 11 and 12 runs a year better than average respectively in center over the course of his career. Those are still excellent defensive numbers and I think BP is more accurate here for 2012.




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Darwin Barney, 2B, Chicago Cubs
2012 numbers: bWAR 4.6, fWAR 2.5, WARP 1.8


Another one that comes down to defensive evaluation. DRS loves Barney, putting him at an amazing 28 runs above-average, while BP's FRAA and FG have him in the 10-15 range in 2012. That DRS figure is a big number on defense and not one we can wholeheartedly embrace for him yet -- that's not BIS's fault, but simply the limits on short-term defensive stats and the fact that we're still early in figuring out how to evaluate the effects of infield shifting.


The verdict: As a prospect, the scouting community did like Barney's defense, so I have faith that he's well above-average, but I think we should wait a little before evaluating him as among the best defensive second basemen we've ever seen. Certiorari is denied as this case isn't yet ripe for judgment.



Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
 
Top five pitching duos.
When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Zack Greinke this offseason, he gave them -- along with lefty Clayton Kershaw -- one of the top front ends of a rotation in baseball. Together, the duo is arguably the best one-two punch in the game, a pair truly capable of winning four games in a seven-game series.



Are they the best in the game? I decided to pore through some advanced metrics (and sprinkle in a little subjectivity) to determine the top five duos in the game right now.




To determine these rankings, I selected the top two of each rotation based on the player's projected WAR totals, courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system, which has just finished running over at FanGraphs.



I also took the combined WAR (FanGraphs' version) of each duo for the past three seasons. I use three seasons, because any one season can be subject to statistical flukes, so when possible -- as it is here -- three years makes for a better sample.



However, WAR isn't the end-all be-all, so we want a couple of other metrics as well. A pitcher's peripheral statistics, such as strikeouts and walks, often hold a great deal of predictive value, but rather than dividing them by each other, as K/BB does, it's better to subtract the two percentages from each other. This not only gives it more predictive value (which you can read more about), but it also makes more sense intuitively, as you are using the same sample in your denominator -- total batters faced. (For a full statistical breakdown, check scroll to the bottom.)



Finally, we want to have a projected rate stat to account for the fact that not all pitchers are projected to have the same workload. For instance, ZiPS projects Gio Gonzalez to toss 200 innings this year, but projects Kershaw to toss 221 2/3, a large difference. Therefore, we'll use the ZiPS projected ERA for each duo. By using all four of these metrics, we can get a more complete picture of how the duos have performed, and how they may be expected to perform.



Here are the top five pitching duos in baseball right now:




1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke



Indeed, the Dodgers' new duo is the No. 1 team on the list. No pair of pitchers that a team can put together can match the 10.4 WAR that ZiPS projects Kershaw and Greinke to achieve this season. The Nats might come close if Strasburg were pegged for more innings pitched, but it remains to be seen if the nanny state Washington placed him in will lead to the 200-inning season they expect from him.



Like the Phillies, Los Angeles has a pair of very efficient pitchers. It's become de rigeur to doubt Greinke, but he has been worth at least 4.0 WAR (per FanGraphs) in each of the past five seasons, giving him an exemplary track record. It's that track record that makes him more bankable than Scherzer or Strasburg, who have just a single season of domination under their belts. And while Kershaw didn't match his brilliant 2011 season in the same fashion that Verlander did, he joins Verlander as one of two pitchers to notch a WAR projection north of six wins.



The Dodgers have the best balance of past track record and future projection, and that puts them in position to tip the scales in their favor. L.A. may not have the best overall rotation, but with Kershaw and Greinke, they are going to be tough to beat.





2. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels



You could make the argument that Roy Halladay deserves to be placed here rather than Hamels, but coming off a down year, Hamels has a higher projected WAR than does Halladay. And certainly Hamels is no slouch, as among the No. 2 starters as defined by this exercise, only Mat Latos has a higher projected WAR for 2013.



Lee and Hamels form the most efficient pairing. Both rarely waste bullets, particularly Lee, whose 3.9 percent walk rate is easily the game's lowest over the past three years. Over those past three years, they have been the most valuable duo, and there is little reason to expect much of a drop-off this season. Lee received attention for his drop in wins last season, but if there's any reason for worry among Phillies fans, it's that both his K-rate and swinging strike percentage fell last season. But he also was able to limit his walks more, which dampened most of the negative effect.




3. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer



Last season was Scherzer's coming-out party, as the young righty -- who was part of the famed three-way trade that also involved Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy -- saw his strikeout rate skyrocket. Instead of making contact on more than 78 percent of the pitches they swung at, opposing hitters were only able to connect on 74 percent of Scherzer's pitches in 2012, a number that was good for fourth in the game among qualified starters.



As for Verlander, he essentially duplicated his Cy Young Award-winning season, though the instinct of writers who wanted to want to craft a different narrative led them to select David Price for the honor instead. Still, few are going to do it better than Verlander, who ZiPS projects to have the most WAR among starting pitchers this season.




4. Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg



Strasburg is at once the reason to be wary and optimistic for the Nationals. There isn't a starter in baseball who has a better FIP- projection than Strasburg's 58 FIP- heading into this season. But Strasburg also has the thinnest track record, thanks to Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2011 season.



As a result, he has just just 251 1/3 innings pitched in the majors, and not one season with 30 starts. On the other side is Gonzalez, who made a lot of strides last season but still walked batters at a rate above that of league average. The two may top this chart a year from now, but at the moment it is prudent to exercise a little caution.




5. Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson



Weaver and Wilson have been very productive over the past three years, and likely will be again this season. Both rank in the top 10 in WAR over the past three seasons, placing them in the top five as a duo. But where they fail to reach the top is in their strikeout and walk ability.



Collectively, their strikeout and walk rates are middling, though the walk rate can be laid at the feet of Wilson much more so than Weaver. Though Weaver doesn't walk many, he does a poor job of keeping the ball on the ground, but thanks to his ballpark and outfield defense, this isn't the issue for him that it would be on a different team.



Dynamic duos
How the top pairs stack up in key stats. (FanGRaphs' WAR was used.)

Duo Proj. WAR Proj. ERA '10-'12 WAR '10-'12 K%-BB%
Kershaw/Greinke 10.4 2.82 30.9 17.80
Verlander/Scherzer 9.9 3.49 31.4 17.50
Strasburg/Gonzalez 9.5 2.88 20.2 15.80
Hamels/Lee 9.3 3.16 31.7 19.40
Weaver/Wilson 8.5 3.25 27.2 13.60
 
Why time is gaining on Derek Jeter.
TAMPA, Fla. -- Don't tell Derek Jeter this, but time is gaining on him.



He has heeded Satchel Paige's advice and refrained from looking back, and last summer he all but thumbed his nose at age. He fought off inside fastballs and rolled out 216 hits at age 38, the most since he was 25. He was an All-Star, finished seventh in the MVP voting and passed a whole bunch of Hall of Famers on the all-time leaderboards.



At the end of his season, when he collapsed on the field with a broken ankle, he refused to give in to time. When New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi reached him while Jeter while sprawled on the dirt, the first thing Jeter said -- knowing that he was seriously injured -- was that he didn't want to be carried off the field. So he half-limped, half-walked off, supported by others, before anybody thought about bringing out a cart.



But time is relentless. You may have heard that it posted 50 years on Michael Jordan today, who seemed an immortal in his time. It will get Jeter eventually.



Will that happen this summer? Who knows? Jeter has spoken confidently about his rehab work, about how he's right on schedule, and after his resurgence over the past year and a half, we'd be fools to doubt him.



But he's now reached the stage of his career when it wouldn't be a surprise if the decline came at any time. If his batting average plummeted from the .316 of last season to something much lower, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron and Cal Ripken would probably nod their heads and say, Yeah, it happens. In the summer of 1973, when Aaron was 39 years old, he clubbed 40 homers. The next season, he hit 20. Two years after that, he retired.



Jeter will meet with the media today and will grin at the questions that are couched in doubt. He has earned that right, for sure. I thought he was at the beginning of the end at the outset of 2011, when his swing generated a whole bunch of ground balls -- and I'd bet I wasn't alone in that assessment. Jeter -- like Jordan and Kobe Bryant and a whole bunch of other players who have been the best of their time -- feeds on those doubts, which is part of what makes him great.

Shortstops, age 39 or older, with at least 500 plate appearances
Year Player Age Team
2007 Omar Vizquel 40 Giants
2006 Omar Vizquel 39 Giants
1973 Luis Aparicio 39 Red Sox
1949 Luke Appling 42 White Sox
1947 Luke Appling 40 White Sox
1946 Luke Appling 39 White Sox
1931 Rabbit Maranville 39 Boston Braves
1915 Honus Wagner 41 Pirates
1914 Honus Wagner 40 Pirates
But time is gaining.



There have been only a very small handful of players who have ever played shortstop regularly at an advanced age. Jeter turns 39 on June 26. John Fisher and Kenton Wong of ESPN Stats & Information dug out this list of players who at 39 or older played at least 50 percent of their games at shortstop and had at least 500 plate appearances since 1901 (table on right).



None of the teams for which Vizquel, Aparicio, Appling, Maranville and Wagner played in those seasons referenced reached the postseason -- and, in fact, only one had a winning record.



2007 Giants (Vizquel): 71-91
2006 Giants (Vizquel): 76-85
1973 Red Sox (Aparicio): 89-73
1949 White Sox (Appling): 63-91
1947 White Sox (Appling): 70-84
1946 White Sox (Appling): 74-80
1931 Braves (Maranville): 64-90
1915 Pirates (Wagner): 73-81
1914 Pirates (Wagner): 69-85



The Yankees made the playoffs last year, when Jeter was 38. If he has a 160-hit season, he would climb to sixth on the all-time hits list:



5. Tris Speaker -- 3,514
6. Cap Anson -- 3,435
7. Honus Wagner -- 3,420
8. Carl Yastrzemski -- 3,419
9. Paul Molitor -- 3,319
10. Eddie Collins -- 3,315
11. Jeter -- 3,304

With a 90-run season -- a mark he's surpassed 14 times in his career -- he would climb into ninth place in runs:



8. Cap Anson -- 1,999
9. Stan Musial -- 1,949
10. Alex Rodriguez -- 1,898
11. Lou Gehrig -- 1,888
12. Tris Speaker -- 1,882
13. Jeter 1,868



Jeter needs 26 doubles for 550 in his career, two more stolen bases to reach 350, and with 449 at-bats, he'll become only the ninth player in history to achieve 11,000 in his career.



News and notes


• Even before the end of the World Series last year, there was some resignation that Pablo Sandoval's weight was going to be an issue this year, because he played well last year when he was heavy and because he was destined to enjoy himself in the aftermath of the Giants' success. And sure enough, the Panda came in very overweight.



• Mike Trout says he's not fat. From Mike DiGiovanna's story:

Yes, the 21-year-old outfielder reported to spring training at 241 pounds, about 10 to 15 pounds more than he weighed in 2012 and five pounds heavier than slugger Albert Pujols, who checked in at 236.

And, yes, with his thick neck and muscular build, the reigning American League rookie of the year looks more like an NFL fullback than a major league leadoff hitter, causing an uproar among fans on Twitter and message boards, where Trout has been called, among other things, "Blimpy" and the "Hindenburg."

But most of the added weight is muscle -- Trout's body fat is 9 percent -- and he expects to lose about 10 pounds during camp, which would put him right around the weight he finished last season at, 230 pounds.

And he has not gained 30 pounds, as some have speculated. Though he was listed at 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds last season, he actually weighed between 225 and 230.

"I think it's pretty funny," Trout said of the response to his weight gain. "I usually lose five to 10 pounds in spring. I figured if I came in at the weight I want to play at and lost five to 10 pounds, I'd be underweight to start the season."


• Houston Astros owner Jim Crane is going to golf with the president.



• As far as Pittsburgh Pirates owner Bob Nutting is concerned, it's playoffs or bust. From Rob Biertempfel's story:


Pirates owner Bob Nutting has high expectations for this season.



"My expectation is the same as everyone within our organization, and that is winning our division and competing for our sixth World Series championship," Nutting said in an interview with the Tribune-Review. "That is and has to be our objective every year. We all expect the progress we have seen over the past two years on the major league level to continue.



"We need to continue to give our fans a team that they can believe in. The strong show of support from our fans has further crystallized for me just how important the Pirates are to so many generations and strengthened my commitment to completing this turnaround."




• Chipper Jones was in the Atlanta Braves' camp, with no itch for a comeback, David O'Brien writes. From O'Brien's story:




Despite inevitable speculation that Jones will consider a comeback once he gets the itch, the switch-hitting slugger indicated that was about the last thing on his mind.



"I just haven't had the urge," he said. "I'm here, and I thought today would be difficult not to get the itch to put the uniform on. I don't even want to put that uniform on, to be honest with you. I'd much rather just kind of walk around in anonymity and just hang out with the guys, and just kind of wean myself off this clubhouse."




The battle for jobs


1. Aroldis Chapman's transition to the rotation is the hottest topic in the Cincinnati Reds' camp, writes John Fay.



2. Here are the candidates for the Minnesota Twins' center field job, from Phil Miller.



3. Brian Roberts' health is the biggest factor in the competition at second base.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. Chris Sale is not in a rush for a long-term deal.



2. Ned Yost would like to put Alex Gordon in the leadoff spot.



3. The Texas Rangers are trying to decide when Jurickson Profar's career will begin, in earnest.



4. Clayton Kershaw is getting the ball on Opening Day. As if there was any doubt.



5. Homer Bailey worked out a deal.



6. Charlie Manuel is tired of talking about his contract.



7. The New York Mets should go after Jose Valverde, writes Ken Davidoff.



Dings and dents


AL West



Ian Kinsler will be asked to provide leadership now that Michael Young is gone, Richard Durrett writes.



There is a new look and feel to the Seattle Mariners' roster, writes Geoff Baker.



Hiro Nakajima could be the Yoenis Cespedes of 2013 for the Oakland Athletics, writes Susan Slusser.



AL Central



Jeff Seidel asks if Bruce Rondon can handle the pressure.



Here are 10 observations from the Detroit Tigers' camp, from Lynn Henning.



Jhonny Peralta has impressed so far.



Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez know that the Cleveland Indians' hope for improvement really rests on them.



Tom Brunansky is in a tough spot as the new hitting coach of the Twins.



NL West



Cody Ross has had an immediate impact, Nick Piecoro writes.



Todd Helton has delayed his talk with the media since his DUI arrest, and there must be a reason, writes Troy Renck.



Wilin Rosario is working to reshape himself as the Colorado Rockies' catcher.



NL Central



The Chicago Cubs have a pitcher who once played on a hexed team, writes Paul Sullivan.



Ian Stewart is looking to prove himself, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.



The St. Louis Cardinals have to rebuild their chemistry from within.



Tony Sanchez is trying to reach the big leagues with the Pirates.



AL East



Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey is building on what is already an excellent rotation.



The Rays need Matt Moore to take the next step, writes Gary Shelton. I couldn't agree more.



The Yankees' CC Sabathia passed his first test.



Adam Lind is trying to find his swing, writes Ken Fidlin. The Toronto Blue Jays have a new hitting coach.



History shows that a high payroll doesn't always translate into success, writes Richard Griffin, in reference to the Jays.



John Farrell is the perfect personality to turn around the Boston Red Sox.



The expectations for Mike Napoli are downsized, writes Dan Shaughnessy.



NL East



For the Miami Marlins, it's back to the future, writes Clark Spencer.



Jayson Werth talked about the sting of losing Game 5 last year.



The Washington Nationals are going to work on preventing steals, writes Adam Kilgore.



The New York Mets' Collin Cowgill is embracing the underdog role of the team.
 
Enough with the PED spin.
[TAMPA, Fla. -- A longtime player chatted recently about watching Melky Cabrera in the All-Star Game last summer. "Remember when he hit that home run?" the veteran said, referring to the laser Cabrera mashed over the left-field wall, among the many hits he got the last two seasons.



"I couldn't believe it," the player said. "That was a bullet. I couldn't believe it. Because I remembered what he was before. He wasn't a very good player, and then he's one of the best outfielders in the world? Please. It just pisses me off."



That is the same Melky Cabrera who worked from a written statement the other day:




"Last season ended for me when I admitted taking a banned substance and accepted and served my punishment of a 50-game suspension. Since that day, my goals have been to serve my punishment and to put that mistake behind me, and to work hard to be the best baseball player I can be.



"At the end of last season, when it became clear that I would win the batting title despite my positive test, I asked the Players Association and MLB to make sure a more deserving player won, and I am very happy that my former teammate Buster Posey won that award instead of me."



To paraphrase: Aren't I a good guy for not accepting the batting title? (But please don't ask about the $4 million I took away in salary, even after you account for the $2 million or so I lost through the suspension.)



More Cabrera:




"I also accepted the Giants' decision not to bring me back for the playoffs after I served my punishment. Instead, I continued to work hard so I could be ready for the 2013 season. I hoped and expected that I would be allowed to put my mistake behind me and to start this season fresh.



"I am aware that in the past weeks, there have been news articles written about so-called patient files from a Miami clinic, and the MLB and others are investigating those allegations. I have told MLB I will cooperate in their investigation the best I can, just as my legal counsel has told federal investigators. I have been instructed by legal counsel not to answer questions relating to the pending investigations.



"This statement will be the last comment I will make on the events of the 2012 season. I have put my mistakes behind me, have learned my lesson, and have served my punishment. I am here to play the best baseball I can to help the Toronto Blue Jays win a world championship."

Oh, please.



A "mistake"? Would someone who embezzled money from his company say he made 'a mistake'? Would someone who used somebody else's ATM card to take millions claim he made "a mistake"?

Note to players who are linked to PEDs: If you get caught, please, enough with the statements that are supposed to convey contrition and sorrow and a desire to fix the problem of drug use in baseball. Just save it. Please, say nothing at all.



Nelson Cruz had this the other day, in addressing the recent report that tied him to Tony Bosch's clinic.



"I want to be honest. When it's done I will address you and tell everything I know. … I want to speak and I want to talk, but my lawyer told me I couldn't say anything right now.''



Let's get this straight: Cruz's lawyers work for him, not the other way around. He can say anything he wants. If he wants to clear the air and give a full explanation, the world is waiting, and nothing is stopping him except him.



Yasmani Grandal, busted last fall for a positive drug test, offered up his own prepared statement the other day. From the Associated Press:




"I have taken full responsibility for my actions and apologized to my teammates, the fans and the San Diego Padres organization," Grandal said, taking less than 2 minutes to read his statement. "I plan to put that mistake behind me, serve my suspension and continue working hard to be the best player and teammate I can be."



As for Biogenesis, Grandal said "I am aware of the various press reports about so-called patient files from a Miami clinic, and that Major League Baseball and others are investigating those allegations.



"I intend to cooperate fully in their investigations. I have been instructed by legal counsel not to answer questions relating to the pending investigations," he said. "Based on that legal advice, I will have no further comment."




Isn't it amazing? Everybody who is caught really wants to help, wants to cooperate fully, but can't answer questions.



From Ryan Braun:




"I understand why a lot of you guys are probably here, but I made a statement last week. I stand behind that statement. I'm not going to address that issue any further. As I stated, I'm happy to cooperate fully into any investigation into this matter."



Let's see how that goes. Let's see how much cooperation there really is from Cabrera, from Grandal, from Braun.



Let's see if Cabrera tells Major League Baseball investigators exactly where he got his performance-enhancing drugs. Let's see if he gives them a road map for when he took the drugs, where the weakness in the current drug-testing system is, and who helped him along the way.



Let's see if Braun cooperates fully, and waives his attorney-client privilege and tells his lawyers to give up all the information they have to MLB about hiring Bosch as a paid consultant -- the contemporaneous notes that were taken, copies of the checks sent to Bosch for his work, phone records that will help corroborate the convenient timing of all of this.



If they're not willing to take that step, then please, save the public statements. Save the posturing.



If those who are busted are truly contrite, they can give money made to charity. If they were truly sorry, they would have nothing to hide and they could answer any question from anybody, as lessons learned and passed on to others.



There have been so many empty statements made through the years, from Marion Jones to Rafael Palmeiro to Lance Armstrong, that they are now meaningless. Nobody will believe them anyway, without action that supports them.

Don't say anymore that you are sorry; show you're sorry.



Don't say that you want to cooperate; pick up the phone and help.



Don't ask for forgiveness; just do something worthy of forgiveness.

Don't say you want to talk but that you can't talk; just talk.



Or just shut up altogether, and stop pretending that it wasn't about the money all along, and about gaming the system. Enough with the artful, lawyer-washed language. Enough with the relentless lying.



Notables


• Mariano Rivera hasn't formally announced his plans after 2013, but he is clearly contemplating the end of his career. While chatting Sunday in front of his locker at Legends Field, Rivera said that the morning after he blew out his knee last spring, he knew he would try to come back. "Because it couldn't end like that," he said.



Rivera was asked: What if you had been able to come back and pitch at the end of last season? Would you have retired last fall?



"A good chance," Rivera said, nodding. "A good chance."

• For the first time, Derek Jeter sounded philosophical about age, in speaking with reporters Sunday. Everybody gets older, he said, adding that when he's on the field, he doesn't think about age.



When questions like this have come up in the past, Jeter has seemingly taken them as a challenge. But there was none of that on Sunday. He looked good, at his usual weight, and sounded really good. He said he's aiming for Opening Day and knows he has to push himself to make that happen. He really can't ask himself for more than that.



I wrote here yesterday that only one team in baseball history has ever had a winning record with an every-day shortstop at age 39 or older -- the 1973 Boston Red Sox, with Luis Aparicio.



Age and injury are likely to take their toll on Jeter in 2013, writes John Harper. There are core concerns for the Yankees for the first time since 1996, writes Joel Sherman. Jeter is back and the Yankees need him, writes Bob Klapisch.

• Alfredo Aceves did another strange thing Sunday. Boston is loaded with bullpen depth, and although Aceves has a good arm and can be useful, you'd have to assume that the Red Sox aren't going to have a lot of patience with him. They don't have to have him around to win, and they need a change of culture this year, with everyone pulling in the same direction.



The Red Sox should've gotten rid of him over the winter, writes Steve Buckley.



• The Astros' owner golfed with the president.


• Matt Garza has a lat strain. The best-case scenario for the Cubs is that he's backed up by a couple of weeks.

• Todd Helton, who is expected to retire after this season, was apologetic when speaking with reporters about his recent DUI. From Troy Renck's story:



"I'm very grateful to my wife, my family, my teammates and the Colorado Rockies organization for their support. I am determined to learn from my mistakes, and I've gotten help."

Helton, 39, declined to discuss the nature of help he's receiving. He told The Denver Post after the news conference that he doesn't believe he has a drinking problem. However, he reiterated that he's following a protocol to avoid another misstep and recognizes the gravity of the situation.



Helton talked for 9 minutes, 47 seconds, his voice halting at times as he recalled telling his older daughter, Tierney, about the incident.



"I told her I made a mistake. Just like Daddy forgives you for your mistake. I have to learn from it. When I talk about taking the right steps, I am talking about her too," Helton said. "She holds me very accountable too."



Dings and dents

1. Johan Santana threw off a mound for the first time since last August, writes Kristie Ackert.

2. Brennan Boesch tweaked an oblique.

3. Yasmani Grandal hasn't started hitting yet.


The fight for jobs

1. The Cardinals' shortstop spot is in play, as Derrick Goold writes, and Pete Kozma is among those guys battling.

2. The Jays' second-base job is up for grabs, writes John Lott.

4. Bruce Rondon threw to hitters for the first time.

5. Four guys are battling for the last two spots on the Tigers' roster, writes Lynn Henning.

6. Jean Segura is getting a chance to be the Brewers' shortstop, writes Tom Haudricourt.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. There is no chance that Jacoby Ellsbury will stick with the Red Sox, writes Dan Shaughnessy.

2. The Cubs may leave WGN after the 2014 season.


NL East

• Spring training for the Nationals is very different than it was a few years ago, Ryan Zimmerman tells Adam Kilgore.

• Jordan Zimmermann's changeup is improving, writes Amanda Comak.

• The Phillies' bullpen has improved, Jonathan Papelbon tells Bob Brookover.

• Tim Hudson is valued off the mound, too.

• Chipper Jones had a good seat for an epic batting practice session.

• Some old friends have been reunited in the Marlins' camp.

• A Marlins catcher is a plus hitter.


NL Central

• Ryan Ludwick talked about his 18-month slump, writes Bill Center.

• The Pirates are looking to slow the running game this year, writes Bill Brink.


NL West

• Kyle Blanks is banking on good health.

• Marco Scutaro is all smiles, writes Alex Pavlovic.

• Brett Bochy is pitching in the Giants' camp, for his dad. I can remember Brett playing catch in front of the Padres' dugout on the first day of the 1997 season -- he must've been 7 or 8 -- and having a crazy-good arm for a little kid, and accidentally smoking Bobby Valentine in the leg with an errant throw.

• Andre Ethier wasn't bothered by trade rumors, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Jason Kubel hopes he has fixed his batting woes.


AL East

• The Orioles are counting on another big year from Jason Hammel. Jair Jurrjens had a nice bullpen session.

• The Blue Jays got the first look at the team they've compiled.

• R.A. Dickey's knuckler befuddles hitters, as Rosie DiManno writes.

• Daniel Nava is preparing at first base.

• The Red Sox talked with Felix Doubrant about his conditioning.

• The Rays think Yunel Escobar is worth the risk.


AL Central

• Thoughts of retiring don't scare Paul Konerko. His future is uncertain, as Daryl Van Schouwen writes.

• The Twins' Trevor Plouffe hope he settles in at one position, writes La Velle Neal.

• The Royals' Luis Mendoza says he's ready to go after a busy winter.

• The hiring of Terry Francona has provided a foundation of hope for the Indians, writes Bud Shaw.


AL West

• Dustin Ackley is trying to get past his rough 2012 season, writes Larry Stone. From his piece:



Dustin Ackley is used to being the best hitter on his team, not the one flailing to figure out why he can't get on track, no matter what or how hard he tries.

And yet that's precisely where Ackley found himself last year, as he endured by far the worst season of his baseball life. The precision of his swing eroded. The bone spur that had sat in his left ankle since his freshman year in college caused increasing discomfort. And his batting average plummeted to .226, almost inconceivable for a hitter of Ackley's reputation. That's about 100 points below the best-case scenario envisioned for Ackley when the Mariners made him the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft, right behind Stephen Strasburg and 23 picks ahead of Mike Trout.



When it came to his stance, his swing, the mechanics that had always come so naturally, "I didn't really know what was going on," he admitted.


• The Rangers must decide who will start on Opening Day, writes Evan Grant.

• The youngest player in any camp is with Oakland, writes Susan Slusser.

• Peter Bourjos is looking for a speedy recovery, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Lucas Harrell will get the ball in the Astros' first exhibition.

/SPOILER]
 
Tigers have big plans for Bruce Rondon.
LAKELAND, Fla. -- For some of the Detroit Tigers, Bruce Rondon is still more rumor than fact. They've heard about how he throws lightning bolts, a fastball that reaches triple digits, and how he's capable of embarrassing hitters, but they haven't actually seen him on a mound.



"I'm looking forward to it," said Max Scherzer, standing on one of the back fields at the Tigers' facility in Lakeland, and you can understand why, because there is a good chance Rondon will have the responsibility of closing out leads for the Tigers this year despite the fact that he has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues.



[+] Enlarge

Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos/Getty Images
Bruce Rondon is playing a key role for Detroit this season.

Detroit might have the majors' best rotation, as well as a very good lineup; Victor Martinez is bouncing around camp, others say, anxious to be the guy who hits behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Torii Hunter is here now, cheerily going about his business, which is his way. This is a team otherwise built to win the World Series -- and the job of getting the last outs might go to a pure rookie.




Tigers catcher Alex Avila has seen Rondon throw. He has caught him in the bullpen, in fact. The other day, Avila decided to break in a new catcher's mitt on the same day he worked with Rondon, and even though the pitcher wasn't really applying full force and adrenaline -- "70 percent," Avila guesstimated -- his fastball carved its way into the new glove.



"Impressive," Avila said with a small smile, which, given the catcher's even-keeled temperament, is like shouting, "YEP, HE LOOKED GREAT!"



This is what Avila has seen in Rondon: His arm angle is about three-quarters, rather than over the top, which means the right-hander is probably going to be very daunting for right-handed hitters. Some guys who throw really hard launch themselves at the hitters, like Joel Zumaya -- but Rondon has a nice and easy delivery, Avila said, with the ball hidden behind him. This means the hitters will see nothing but this very relaxed Sunday-stroll-in-the-park motion -- until the ball is suddenly bearing down on them like a charging buffalo. The motion is deceptive, and a little unnerving.



Rondon has a refined changeup, Avila says, that is probably his second-best pitch; the breaking ball is a little further behind. And this is big: Rondon is capable of working to both sides of the plate, which is not something you usually see in hard-throwing relievers.



"The big thing with him is going to be throwing strikes," Avila said.



Yes. In 2009, at the age of 18, Avila threw 15 1/3 innings professionally and issued 15 walks. The next year, he cut his walk rate in half, doling out 16 in 32 1/3 innings. He had 34 walks in 40 innings in 2011, and then last year, he had 26 in 53 innings, reaching Triple-A by the end of the year.



Rondon is a big guy, listed at 6-foot-3, 255 pounds; his body seems structured like a refrigerator, blocky and strong. But, as he played catch on the back field here Friday, he turned his body fluidly with each throw, a flicker of athleticism; in fact, his motion is reminiscent of that of Livan Hernandez, the former Marlins pitcher who became oversized late in his career but always had extraordinary ability to hit and field his position and repeat his delivery.



The general manager of the Marlins when Hernandez signed was Dave Dombrowski, and his manager was Jim Leyland; they are, of course, both with the Tigers now. The two of them have promoted a lot of young players into prominence in their respective careers. In spring 2006, they committed themselves to using two young, unproven pitchers on that team: Zumaya and Justin Verlander.



It has been telling how open Leyland and Dombrowski have been in recent months about their feelings about Rondon; rather than run from the idea that he could be the closer, they've promoted it, always acknowledging the caveat that Rondon must prove himself in games.



They would not be doing that, a reporter said to Avila, if they didn't really believe he is ready. Avila agreed.



He has seen Rondon throw. He has talked to him about finishing games.



"This," Avila said, "is something he wants."



Al Kaline says Cabrera is a Hall of Famer already.



Notables


• There is another alleged link between Ryan Braun and performance-enhancing drugs; he stands by his story.



• Melky Cabrera talked about performance-enhancing drugs a little. Rosie DiManno feels Cabrera has dodged questions. Alex Anthopoulos says the Jays talked about what it would mean if they signed Cabrera.



• Nelson Cruz says he wants to tell the truth really badly but can't at this time.



• Jose Reyes talked about Jeffrey Loria, a lot. From Jayson Stark's story:

"I was shocked, because Jeffrey Loria, he always told me he's never going to trade me," Reyes said on his first day as a Blue Jay. "He always called my agent and said, 'Tell Jose to get a good place here to live,' and stuff like that."



In fact, Reyes said he and Loria attended a dinner together only a couple of days before the trade, and "he was talking still about 'get a nice house in Miami.'"



"That was kind of crazy," 29-year-old Reyes said. "I mean, how can you want me to spend some money in Miami, when I have my house in New York, and you're going to trade me in two days?"

In the Marlins' camp, Giancarlo Stanton didn't rip the team.



• The Rays met with the St. Petersburg mayor.



• This explains at least some of the Bigfoot sightings in the offseason.



• Johan Santana is likely to skip the WBC, writes Andy Martino.



The fight for jobs


1. Gerardo Parra must compete with Cody Ross, Jason Kubel and Adam Eaton for at-bats.



2. Marlon Byrd could be the Mets' right fielder.



3. Rick Porcello is competing for the No. 5 spot in the Detroit rotation, amid trade rumors.



4. Hanley Ramirez is looking to improve his defense.



Dings and dents


1. Grant Balfour didn't need crutches after his knee surgery, as Susan Slusser writes.



2. Neil Walker's back is back to normal, writes Rob Biertempfel.



3. Brian Roberts is feeling really good, as Peter Schmuck writes.



4. Rafael Furcal is very confident in his elbow, writes Rick Hummel.



5. John Danks says his left shoulder feels better.



6. Padres prospect Rymer Liriano will miss the season because of an elbow reconstruction. It feels as if the Padres' luck is all bad.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. Jordan Zimmermann reached an agreement.



2. Justin Morneau is entering the final year of his contract with the Twins, and he's not sure what that will mean.



3. After signing his deal, Michael Bourn says he's ready to go.



4. The Marlins signed Casey Kotchman.



AL West


Erik Bedard is trying to rebuild his career, with the Astros.



Jurickson Profar hasn't decided whether to play in the World Baseball Classic.



Mike Trout got bigger in the offseason.



The pitchers and catchers in the Angels' camp are focusing on building a rapport, writes Jeff Fletcher.



AL Central


The Royals' staff is falling into place, writes Bob Dutton.



AL East


Manny Machado has high expectations.



The Yankees are being patient with Michael Pineda, writes Pat Borzi.



Andy Pettitte feels the Yankees can use some of Kevin Youkilis' intensity.



John Farrell is setting a different tone with the Red Sox, writes Peter Abraham.

NL West


The Diamondbacks hope that a change of culture brings wins.



Bruce Bochy got to watch his son throw a bullpen session, as Alex Pavolic writes.



Zack Greinke talked about his anxiety disorder, as Bill Plaschke writes.



NL Central


Troy Tulowitzki is pacing himself, writes Troy Renck.



The Pirates' bullpen guys are aiming for something special, as Bill Brink writes.



Jorge Soler caught the attention of Cubs manager Dale Sveum, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.



Joey Votto says his knee is fine.

NL East


The question is whether the Phillies' vets can carry the load or whether young guys grab the reins, writes David Murphy.



Bryce Harper has lofty goals, writes Amanda Comak.



Dan Uggla shed some weight in the offseason, writes David O'Brien.
 
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