- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
Heyman - So it is Thole, Nickeaus, Dickey and NYM get Buck, Syndergaard D'Arnaud, Becerra
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
Nakajima to A's
Ken_Rosenthal #Athletics close on a new shortstop. It's Hiroyuki Nakajima, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. Career .310 hitter with Seibu Lions in Japan.
Ken_Rosenthal #Athletics close on a new shortstop. It's Hiroyuki Nakajima, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. Career .310 hitter with Seibu Lions in Japan.
DYNAMICS
formerly diplomat tdot
- Jun 26, 2002
- 28,614
- 3,826
Don't even want Dickey here. Rather keep the two prospects we're letting go of.
- Jan 12, 2003
- 21,951
- 1,398
Dickey pretty much just had one bad outing last season from what I remember, the way he dominated the Rays in that one hitter (should've been no hitter) was :x
Guy was dominant, and I hope he stays that way in the AL East.
I will try to watch as many Blue Jays games as possible. classy from day 1.
Guy was dominant, and I hope he stays that way in the AL East.
I will try to watch as many Blue Jays games as possible. classy from day 1.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,141
- 29,481
If not now when, our best players windows are now Bautista, EE, Morrow, D'aunard seems about as can't miss as Travis Snider did, (not saying this is a bad trade for the mets, it's a great trade for them) I fully support it, AA is always aggressive drafting, and rogers has shown a willingness to spend on the international market he will replenish the farm system, we have a top 10 pick but the time for prospects is over.
The AL east is vulnerable the time to strike is now.
The AL east is vulnerable the time to strike is now.
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
Here's hoping the Blue Jays can upset the balance in the AL East permanently.
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
Why sign a 31-year-old shortstop with no Major League experience when you could trade two young starting pitchers for Asdrubal Cabrera?
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
Exactly. They have a window to be championship contenders for the next 2-4 years.
Toronto bets high on R.A. Dickey.
In a finally-completed trade, the Blue Jays got a No. 1 starter, probably, but paid dearly for that return in prospects -- they really just acquired one year of R.A. Dickey's services. In extending him at a very reasonable salary for the next two years (with a club option), the Blue Jays limit their downside if Dickey can't repeat his historic 2012 season.
Dickey's 2012 season was historic, perhaps the best year ever by a knuckleballer, and certainly the best year ever by a pitcher without an ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He would give the Jays a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter if he repeats it or comes close. Dickey throws an unusually hard knuckler and throws it for strikes, something not generally associated with the pitch. His knuckleball finds the zone more often, misses more bats, and stays in the park at a decent clip as well, all highly attractive factors that should give the Jays reason to believe he won't regress too badly simply by switching to one of the majors' strongest divisions. Toronto acquiring him at such a high cost in prospects seems to imply that they believe he'll continue to rack up innings and pitch somewhere near the level he showed in 2012, which are two big assumptions -- one sound, one a little shaky.
[+] Enlarge
R.A. DickeyMarc Serota/Getty ImagesIf Dickey can repeat his 2012 performance, the deal looks a lot better for the Jays.
Dickey's durability, even with his limited track record as a successful major league starter, shouldn't be a major worry. Phil Niekro reached 200 innings seven times after his 40th birthday, throwing an amazing 342 innings in his age-40 season in 1979. (By that standard, Dickey's kind of a wuss.) Charlie Hough reached 200 innings three times after reaching age 40, and Tom Candiotti, Joe Niekro, and Johnny Niggeling each did it once -- so 12 of the 59 such seasons in baseball history were achieved by knuckleballers, of which there aren't many. In fact, the two common threads among the 30 pitchers to reach 200 innings after age 40 is that each was either a large-bodied power pitcher, like Nolan Ryan (four times) or Randy Johnson (three), or was a no-effort soft-tosser, like the knuckleballers mentioned above -- spitballers like Jack Quinn (four) and Gaylord Perry (three) ... or Jamie Moyer (four), who threw batting practice during games and got away with it until his arm gave out. If we can draw any general conclusions from the group, it's that Dickey should at least be durable, even if he can't repeat what he did in 2012. (It might also make Yankee fans feel better about C.C. Sabathia for the long term.)
The problem with assuming Dickey will continue to pitch as an ace -- or even at a level close to it -- is that he's such an atypical case. Three years ago, he was barely a big leaguer, and while he was among the best pitchers in baseball in 2012, he's also entering his age-38 season and has just that one year of elite-level pitching behind him. He could continue pitching this way for five more years, or he could revert back to what he was in 2010-11, which will be a definite help to Toronto, but far from Cy Young-caliber. There's no way to predict which version will show up -- not based on his history, and not based on other knuckleballers' histories -- since his own profile differs so greatly from those of the Niekros, Tim Wakefield, or Hough.
Toronto's rationale for the deal looks better if you consider the status of the club before the deal was consummated. This is a huge quantity of young talent to give up to gain 3-4 wins in a single season, but their starting pitching was so bad in 2012 that even the 2011 version of Dickey would be worth at least that much in 2013. It only makes sense in the context of the current AL East, in which the Jays were already at least a fringe playoff contender, and are now, at least on paper, on par with the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team (again, on paper) in the division at this point in the offseason. If Dickey's 3-4 added wins are the ones that put the Jays into the playoffs -- which they may very well be -- the return on their investment will look substantially better. Flags fly forever, and the Jays are facing an unusual opportunity -- the two traditional AL East powers, the Yankees and Red Sox, are weaker than they've been in some time, and the most popular sports team in Toronto, the Maple Leafs, is busy watching its commissioner try to drive the sport into oblivion. If the Jays start strong in April with no Leafs and the Raptors in the tank, there's a very good chance they'll see their 2013 attendance catch up to their performance (something that often lags for teams having their first good season in a while, like Baltimore saw in 2012), leading to a revenue boost before the season is out, to say nothing of the substantial revenue boost all teams see when they reach the postseason. It's an unusual confluence of factors that makes the Jays' sudden shift to go for it in 2013 more logical than it would be for other sub-.500 teams.
For just one year of Dickey's services, the Mets get a ridiculously large haul. Travis d'Arnaud has been among the top catching prospects in the game for two years, and, if he can stay healthy, will give the Mets a centerpiece position player who fills a critical spot on the field while producing enough to be among the top 3-4 catchers in the league, if not better.
That caveat about health is particularly relevant to d'Arnaud, who has already missed time as a pro with back and knee problems, as well as acute injuries like a broken finger, leaving him with an average of just 88 games played over his five full seasons in pro ball, and never more than 126 in a single year. Catchers are more susceptible to injury because of the nature of their job, and if d'Arnaud is injury-prone to begin with, he might have a hard time developing or playing enough to reach his potential.
The Mets also get a wild-card pitching prospect in Noah Syndergaard, a big kid who looks the part of a starter but doesn't have the repertoire to be more than a back-end guy yet. Syndergaard has touched 100 mph as a starter, and will comfortably work from 92-97, flashing an average to above-average changeup and showing a very smooth, easy arm stroke that he can repeat without much difficulty. The Jays have worked with him for two-plus years to develop an average breaking ball, but he has yet to find one; you could grade his curveball as potentially above-average, and he has the high slot for it, but if he doesn't have that laxity in his wrist there's a good chance the pitch never gets there. He's a solid acquisition for the Mets because of his size, delivery, and easy velocity, but he's also very high-beta and could end up a back-end guy or even a reliever if that third pitch doesn't make some major strides.
The third prospect turns out to be significant, which is counter to early rumors that he was a throw-in. Wuilmer Becerra got $1.4 million from Toronto out of Venezuela in 2011, and he's had just 39 pro at-bats, with his 2012 season shortened by a broken jaw after being hit in the face by a pitch. He has a sweet-looking right-handed swing with strong hands, keeping his head steady with great hip rotation and loft for future power as his body matures. He should have the arm for right field, although I'd like to see the Mets work out this slight hesitation he has before release. There's no way a player like Becerra, who will be lucky to see the majors before 2016, could stand in the way of the Jays making this trade, but his inclusion makes the return all the better for the Mets.
The Jays did get a backup catcher back in the deal in Josh Thole and rid themselves of John Buck, a small net gain because Thole, who has decent plate discipline but not much else, is cheap, with four years of team control remaining. Overall, however, this deal is three prospects for a year of R.A. Dickey, followed by a cheap two-year-plus option extension. For the Mets, it's an absolute no-brainer, a move that carries some risk but that would have made sense for them if they were only receiving d'Arnaud for Dickey. For the Jays, it makes sense given its context, with a weaker division and a chance to grab mindshare that can be converted into loonies before the year is out. It's also the kind of deal that could haunt the Jays in 2016 if d'Arnaud is in the All-Star Game and Berrera is high at the top of my prospect rankings, but that will sting less if Dickey brings them to the playoffs before he's through.
In a finally-completed trade, the Blue Jays got a No. 1 starter, probably, but paid dearly for that return in prospects -- they really just acquired one year of R.A. Dickey's services. In extending him at a very reasonable salary for the next two years (with a club option), the Blue Jays limit their downside if Dickey can't repeat his historic 2012 season.
Dickey's 2012 season was historic, perhaps the best year ever by a knuckleballer, and certainly the best year ever by a pitcher without an ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He would give the Jays a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter if he repeats it or comes close. Dickey throws an unusually hard knuckler and throws it for strikes, something not generally associated with the pitch. His knuckleball finds the zone more often, misses more bats, and stays in the park at a decent clip as well, all highly attractive factors that should give the Jays reason to believe he won't regress too badly simply by switching to one of the majors' strongest divisions. Toronto acquiring him at such a high cost in prospects seems to imply that they believe he'll continue to rack up innings and pitch somewhere near the level he showed in 2012, which are two big assumptions -- one sound, one a little shaky.
[+] Enlarge
R.A. DickeyMarc Serota/Getty ImagesIf Dickey can repeat his 2012 performance, the deal looks a lot better for the Jays.
Dickey's durability, even with his limited track record as a successful major league starter, shouldn't be a major worry. Phil Niekro reached 200 innings seven times after his 40th birthday, throwing an amazing 342 innings in his age-40 season in 1979. (By that standard, Dickey's kind of a wuss.) Charlie Hough reached 200 innings three times after reaching age 40, and Tom Candiotti, Joe Niekro, and Johnny Niggeling each did it once -- so 12 of the 59 such seasons in baseball history were achieved by knuckleballers, of which there aren't many. In fact, the two common threads among the 30 pitchers to reach 200 innings after age 40 is that each was either a large-bodied power pitcher, like Nolan Ryan (four times) or Randy Johnson (three), or was a no-effort soft-tosser, like the knuckleballers mentioned above -- spitballers like Jack Quinn (four) and Gaylord Perry (three) ... or Jamie Moyer (four), who threw batting practice during games and got away with it until his arm gave out. If we can draw any general conclusions from the group, it's that Dickey should at least be durable, even if he can't repeat what he did in 2012. (It might also make Yankee fans feel better about C.C. Sabathia for the long term.)
The problem with assuming Dickey will continue to pitch as an ace -- or even at a level close to it -- is that he's such an atypical case. Three years ago, he was barely a big leaguer, and while he was among the best pitchers in baseball in 2012, he's also entering his age-38 season and has just that one year of elite-level pitching behind him. He could continue pitching this way for five more years, or he could revert back to what he was in 2010-11, which will be a definite help to Toronto, but far from Cy Young-caliber. There's no way to predict which version will show up -- not based on his history, and not based on other knuckleballers' histories -- since his own profile differs so greatly from those of the Niekros, Tim Wakefield, or Hough.
Toronto's rationale for the deal looks better if you consider the status of the club before the deal was consummated. This is a huge quantity of young talent to give up to gain 3-4 wins in a single season, but their starting pitching was so bad in 2012 that even the 2011 version of Dickey would be worth at least that much in 2013. It only makes sense in the context of the current AL East, in which the Jays were already at least a fringe playoff contender, and are now, at least on paper, on par with the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team (again, on paper) in the division at this point in the offseason. If Dickey's 3-4 added wins are the ones that put the Jays into the playoffs -- which they may very well be -- the return on their investment will look substantially better. Flags fly forever, and the Jays are facing an unusual opportunity -- the two traditional AL East powers, the Yankees and Red Sox, are weaker than they've been in some time, and the most popular sports team in Toronto, the Maple Leafs, is busy watching its commissioner try to drive the sport into oblivion. If the Jays start strong in April with no Leafs and the Raptors in the tank, there's a very good chance they'll see their 2013 attendance catch up to their performance (something that often lags for teams having their first good season in a while, like Baltimore saw in 2012), leading to a revenue boost before the season is out, to say nothing of the substantial revenue boost all teams see when they reach the postseason. It's an unusual confluence of factors that makes the Jays' sudden shift to go for it in 2013 more logical than it would be for other sub-.500 teams.
For just one year of Dickey's services, the Mets get a ridiculously large haul. Travis d'Arnaud has been among the top catching prospects in the game for two years, and, if he can stay healthy, will give the Mets a centerpiece position player who fills a critical spot on the field while producing enough to be among the top 3-4 catchers in the league, if not better.
That caveat about health is particularly relevant to d'Arnaud, who has already missed time as a pro with back and knee problems, as well as acute injuries like a broken finger, leaving him with an average of just 88 games played over his five full seasons in pro ball, and never more than 126 in a single year. Catchers are more susceptible to injury because of the nature of their job, and if d'Arnaud is injury-prone to begin with, he might have a hard time developing or playing enough to reach his potential.
The Mets also get a wild-card pitching prospect in Noah Syndergaard, a big kid who looks the part of a starter but doesn't have the repertoire to be more than a back-end guy yet. Syndergaard has touched 100 mph as a starter, and will comfortably work from 92-97, flashing an average to above-average changeup and showing a very smooth, easy arm stroke that he can repeat without much difficulty. The Jays have worked with him for two-plus years to develop an average breaking ball, but he has yet to find one; you could grade his curveball as potentially above-average, and he has the high slot for it, but if he doesn't have that laxity in his wrist there's a good chance the pitch never gets there. He's a solid acquisition for the Mets because of his size, delivery, and easy velocity, but he's also very high-beta and could end up a back-end guy or even a reliever if that third pitch doesn't make some major strides.
The third prospect turns out to be significant, which is counter to early rumors that he was a throw-in. Wuilmer Becerra got $1.4 million from Toronto out of Venezuela in 2011, and he's had just 39 pro at-bats, with his 2012 season shortened by a broken jaw after being hit in the face by a pitch. He has a sweet-looking right-handed swing with strong hands, keeping his head steady with great hip rotation and loft for future power as his body matures. He should have the arm for right field, although I'd like to see the Mets work out this slight hesitation he has before release. There's no way a player like Becerra, who will be lucky to see the majors before 2016, could stand in the way of the Jays making this trade, but his inclusion makes the return all the better for the Mets.
The Jays did get a backup catcher back in the deal in Josh Thole and rid themselves of John Buck, a small net gain because Thole, who has decent plate discipline but not much else, is cheap, with four years of team control remaining. Overall, however, this deal is three prospects for a year of R.A. Dickey, followed by a cheap two-year-plus option extension. For the Mets, it's an absolute no-brainer, a move that carries some risk but that would have made sense for them if they were only receiving d'Arnaud for Dickey. For the Jays, it makes sense given its context, with a weaker division and a chance to grab mindshare that can be converted into loonies before the year is out. It's also the kind of deal that could haunt the Jays in 2016 if d'Arnaud is in the All-Star Game and Berrera is high at the top of my prospect rankings, but that will sting less if Dickey brings them to the playoffs before he's through.
- Sep 24, 2002
- 3,009
- 421
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- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
they are a great organization and clearly AA said "we are going for it"
props to them for having the balls to push their chips into the middle of the table. So many teams remain stagnant, Jays saw a vulnerable AL East and are going for the top spot and honestly, they should get it no problem.
The Sox are dead, Yankees are old, TB lost a lot of pieces, O's are still up and coming.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the division end up
1. Jays
2. Orioles
3. Yankees
4. Rays
5. Sox
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
- According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the Marlins are pushing for Mark Trumbo in trade talks with the Angels.
The Angels have all but ruled out trading Trumbo this offseason, but this essentially confirms a report by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that the Marlins aren't interested in Peter Bourjos. ESPN's Jim Bowden tweeted Monday that Ricky Nolasco could be a fit in Anaheim, though it's not clear whether they view him as an upgrade over their current starter options.
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the Dodgers are shopping Andre Ethier.
The Dodgers have denied trying to trade Ethier this offseason, but it remains possible he could be moved if any team is willing to take on his massive contract. Feinsand speculates that if Ethier is dealt, the Dodgers could be in the mix for Nick Swisher, who is scheduled to make multiple free agent visits this week.
The Angels have all but ruled out trading Trumbo this offseason, but this essentially confirms a report by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that the Marlins aren't interested in Peter Bourjos. ESPN's Jim Bowden tweeted Monday that Ricky Nolasco could be a fit in Anaheim, though it's not clear whether they view him as an upgrade over their current starter options.
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the Dodgers are shopping Andre Ethier.
The Dodgers have denied trying to trade Ethier this offseason, but it remains possible he could be moved if any team is willing to take on his massive contract. Feinsand speculates that if Ethier is dealt, the Dodgers could be in the mix for Nick Swisher, who is scheduled to make multiple free agent visits this week.
I would swap the O's and the Rays there. O's did nothing to get better, were extremely lucky last year and the Rays got much better this offseason. James Shields isn't a big loss and their farm is stacked with arms that could come up and pitch now. Hell, I think they'll win the division.
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,413
- 5,523
Is Swisher better than Ethier?
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
Swisher can hit left handed pitching.
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- Apr 11, 2008
- 61,807
- 23,560
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
Eh, I feel like at their best, Ethier is better.
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
What did TB do to get so much better according to you?
Losing Shields and Davis is a big loss. Yes they got some prospects back but I'm not scared of that team, nor should anyone be.
- Nov 26, 2012
- 7,165
- 1,812
[h1]Dariel Alvarez and Aledmis Diaz: Top Cuban Prospects Hit Market[/h1]
SS Aledmis Díaz // Courtesy of elkentubano.com
Cuban players Dariel Alvarez andAledmis Diaz officially have been declared free agents, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald. First reported by Mark Sanchez of MLB.com on Nov. 27, both players were expected to hit the open market in early December after establishing residency in Mexico.
Diaz, 22, was playing with the Cuban National team when he defected last summer and had played in Cuba’s premier league, Serie Nacional, since 2007. Regarded as the more advanced player, comparatively, the 6’1”, 185-pound shortstop has a projectable bat with power potential, as well as solid range and a strong arm.
Alvarez, a 24-year-old outfielder, also defected from Cuba last summer after playing in the Serie Nacional. However, unlike Diaz, the 6’2”, 190-pounder has been playing in front of scouts for a professional team in Vera Cruz, Mexico.
Because both players have played at least three seasons in a Cuban league and are at least 23 years old—Diaz will turn 23 in early January—they will be exempt from the international spending restrictions under the new collective bargaining agreement and free to command a larger contract.
Dariel's arm is unreal , 3 years younger than cespedes with similar batting numbers , his BB to S/O needs work though which is probably why diaz is more pro ready , could see diaz going to the yankees putting him in the farm system to get the 201*****15 call up for jeter's replacement
Cuban players Dariel Alvarez andAledmis Diaz officially have been declared free agents, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald. First reported by Mark Sanchez of MLB.com on Nov. 27, both players were expected to hit the open market in early December after establishing residency in Mexico.
Diaz, 22, was playing with the Cuban National team when he defected last summer and had played in Cuba’s premier league, Serie Nacional, since 2007. Regarded as the more advanced player, comparatively, the 6’1”, 185-pound shortstop has a projectable bat with power potential, as well as solid range and a strong arm.
Alvarez, a 24-year-old outfielder, also defected from Cuba last summer after playing in the Serie Nacional. However, unlike Diaz, the 6’2”, 190-pounder has been playing in front of scouts for a professional team in Vera Cruz, Mexico.
Because both players have played at least three seasons in a Cuban league and are at least 23 years old—Diaz will turn 23 in early January—they will be exempt from the international spending restrictions under the new collective bargaining agreement and free to command a larger contract.
Dariel's arm is unreal , 3 years younger than cespedes with similar batting numbers , his BB to S/O needs work though which is probably why diaz is more pro ready , could see diaz going to the yankees putting him in the farm system to get the 201*****15 call up for jeter's replacement
- May 30, 2006
- 25,304
- 13,356
Bro I just watched Hamilton's presser... LOL
"This is where God wants us" = "This is where we got the most $$$$"
And... Going from Wash to Scioscia... Hmm... I can't wait to see Mike's head explode the first time Josh throws down a 1-40 with 18 Ks and starts giving away ABs by flailing at the first three pitches... Gonna be classic.
"This is where God wants us" = "This is where we got the most $$$$"
And... Going from Wash to Scioscia... Hmm... I can't wait to see Mike's head explode the first time Josh throws down a 1-40 with 18 Ks and starts giving away ABs by flailing at the first three pitches... Gonna be classic.
- Nov 26, 2012
- 7,165
- 1,812
rangers won , angels are going to have the deer in the headlights look if they don't win it and every team in the league is backing up the brinks truck for strout
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jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
When Angels miss the Playoffs it will be 
- May 10, 2006
- 27,353
- 64,611
How quickly people turn on players 
- Oct 10, 2005
- 21,569
- 12,405
Have any of you guys got an on-field batting practice pass? My brother and I are gonna go down to Tampa to see the Yankees' Spring Training and I was thinking of buying their Inside Experience program, which is $425, but I can upgrade it for $1000 and that includes an on-field BP pass. I was wondering if it's worth the extra $500 for the pass? Can we interact with the players or is it just watching them with the reporters/photographers? Any help is appreciated
...
- Status
