- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
I agree with CP... I woulda hired Ryno.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
I agree with CP... I woulda hired Ryno.
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
Mark Grace?
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
Mark Grace?
- Sep 17, 2008
- 4,857
- 14
i wish the phils would hire sandberg and let cholly go.
- Sep 17, 2008
- 4,857
- 14
i wish the phils would hire sandberg and let cholly go.
- Feb 19, 2006
- 13,656
- 1,083
Because Ethier, Parra and Kemp play in the NL,Originally Posted by Proshares
How on God's green Earth do you give Markakis, Ethier, Kemp and Parra OF GG's but Gardner gets shafted
Does it really matter though? How many did Jeter pull out? Managers vote on it and you know they don't take defensive metrics into account.
I was surprised as hell that Kershaw, Kemp and Ethier won GG's but hey *shrugs*. Ethier didn't have any errors in RF, that's what managers saw
- Feb 19, 2006
- 13,656
- 1,083
Because Ethier, Parra and Kemp play in the NL,Originally Posted by Proshares
How on God's green Earth do you give Markakis, Ethier, Kemp and Parra OF GG's but Gardner gets shafted
Does it really matter though? How many did Jeter pull out? Managers vote on it and you know they don't take defensive metrics into account.
I was surprised as hell that Kershaw, Kemp and Ethier won GG's but hey *shrugs*. Ethier didn't have any errors in RF, that's what managers saw
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
Silver Sluggers:
Adrian Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Asdrubal Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Curtis Granderson
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Avila
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder
Brandon Phillips
Troy Tulowitzki
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Justin Upton
Brian McCann
Daniel Hudson
Adrian Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Asdrubal Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Curtis Granderson
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Avila
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder
Brandon Phillips
Troy Tulowitzki
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Justin Upton
Brian McCann
Daniel Hudson
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
Silver Sluggers:
Adrian Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Asdrubal Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Curtis Granderson
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Avila
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder
Brandon Phillips
Troy Tulowitzki
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Justin Upton
Brian McCann
Daniel Hudson
Adrian Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Asdrubal Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Curtis Granderson
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Avila
David Ortiz
Prince Fielder
Brandon Phillips
Troy Tulowitzki
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Justin Upton
Brian McCann
Daniel Hudson
- Feb 12, 2005
- 58,787
- 30,191
Neither batting champ received a Silver Slugger? Has that happened before?
- Feb 12, 2005
- 58,787
- 30,191
Neither batting champ received a Silver Slugger? Has that happened before?
Keith Law's top 50 free agents.
#31-50.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ronny Cedeno[/h4][h5]#5 SS
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
Cedeno is a solid-average defender at shortstop who can hit enough off-speed stuff -- he's consistently behind above-average fastballs -- to play every day, given how shallow the MLB shortstop pool is right now. There's not much in the bat other than some ability to make contact, as he doesn't walk and can't hit for power with a hands-heavy approach, and I'd love to know how any player could be caught stealing five times in seven attempts without the first-base coach trying to nail his foot to the bag.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ramon Hernandez[/h4][h5]#55 C
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
There's little catching available on the free-agent market this winter, and saying Hernandez is the best of the lot is the faintest of praise. He's caught a total of 228 games over the past three seasons, and after a strong first half in 2011 (that was out of line with his career anyway), he wilted in just 38 games after the break, posting a .220/.287/.305 (BA/OBP/SLG) line before he was relegated to part-time duty in favor of heir apparent Devin Mesoraco. He's an above-average throwing catcher and fringy receiver who lives off mistakes and fastballs left over the plate. The state of catching across MLB is bad enough that he's still worth a one-year deal, even at his advanced age.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Bartolo Colon[/h4][h5]#40 SP
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Before he got hurt (again) in mid-June, Colon was a revelation for the Yankees, with a 3.10 ERA in 78 innings, allowing just 18 walks and punching out 72. After his DL stint, Colon was a different guy, posting a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings, during which batters hit .301/.343/.494 off him, including 12 home runs. He lost some velocity around the injury, especially the ability to reach back and get 94-95 mph when he needed it, and given the controversy around the treatment he received prior to the season, he might find a chilly reception this winter.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Bruce Chen[/h4][h5]#52 SP
Kansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Chen has remade himself into a finesse lefty. He is not quite the new Jamie Moyer but is along those lines as a guy who succeeds with a below-average fastball by pitching backward and locating his off-speed stuff well. He will work at 83-86 mph but sinks the ball, rarely coming at hitters in the upper half of the zone (where he would get pounded like a cube steak), and throws a hard (relative to his fastball) slider with good tilt that is very tough on left-handed hitters. His changeup doesn't fade, so he throws it at the outer half against right-handed hitters, and it's effective because of the change of pace rather than any real action or deception.
He did have a fortunate schedule this year; only seven of his 25 starts came against teams with winning records, and he cleaned up in the other 18 outings with a 2.69 ERA and just six homers allowed in 117 innings. I wouldn't touch him in the American League East, but in the National League, he could carve out a nice career as a back-end lefty who mixes in enough long starts around the occasional disaster to be worth two wins a year.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jeff Francis[/h4][h5]#26 SP
Kansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Thanks to excellent control, Francis survived (barely) pitching with a grade-35 fastball in 2011. He is not a ground ball guy and certainly isn't missing many bats at 84-85 mph, and the only thing that kept his ERA below 5.00 was three starts against National League lineups. I could see taking a low-base, one-year gamble on Francis in a big NL park, with the hope that another year removed from shoulder surgery sees him regain a little arm strength, but in the wrong environment, he will be terribly homer-prone and won't stick in a rotation.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Freddy Garcia[/h4][h5]#36 SP
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Garcia's repertoire of slop seemed like an awful fit for hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the team's American League East opponents, but Garcia compensated by throwing relatively few fastballs, avoiding walks and just getting kind of lucky all around. Strip out the luck, and you have a fringe-average AL starter who can miss a few bats with a big-tumbling split-fingered fastball and fringy breaking stuff. Given his history of injuries and career-worst velocity this year, I'm not optimistic here, but his 2011 season was good enough to merit another one-year deal.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Andruw Jones[/h4][h5]#18 LF
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Jones hasn't been a regular in ages, but has been steadily showing his value in a platoon role as a lefty-masher and as an above-average defender in an outfield corner. He works the count well and tries to get a fastball he can drive, which works when there's a southpaw on the mound. Jones has hit .274/.379/.547 against left-handed pitching over the past two years in 248 plate appearances, and even in 2009, when he didn't really hit anyone well, he at least managed a .367 OBP against southpaws. He can handle right or left field, although sadly his days in center are long gone. Give him a left-handed-hitting platoon partner, and you could have an above-average combination in left or right.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Rafael Furcal[/h4][h5]#15 SS
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Furcal still owns one of the best infield arms I've ever seen; in a parallel universe, he's on the back nine of a long career as a shutdown closer. He might be the biggest upside play in free agency this year, since he wasn't healthy for much of the season and even his line with St. Louis (.255/.316/.41
doesn't reflect how he'll likely hit if he can stay on the field for 120 games in 2012. Defensive metrics have Furcal below average at short this past year, but again, that looks like a function of lack of health rather than a real decline in skills. On a one-year deal, he could be a huge bargain.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Cody Ross[/h4][h5]#13 LF
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
Ross' value would have been higher after his fluky finish to 2010, but a full year in San Francisco has hurt him, as his power was stifled by the ballpark. He's an average to above-average defender in either corner who can handle center field on an emergency basis (except in a huge park such as the Giants') and provide 20-homer power over a full season. It's also somewhat promising that in an otherwise down year, Ross set a career high in walks and walk rate.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RP
San Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
Bell seems to want to stay in San Diego rather than test the market, and with good reason: His style of pitching isn't going to work in a lot of environments. He throws hard, 92-95 mph, but it's straight and up in the zone, resulting in a lot of fly balls and line drives. The Padres play so many games a year in pitchers' parks that he's thrived there over the past five years, but I'd be very wary of him in a smaller stadium or in the American League East.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jason Kubel[/h4][h5]#16 RF
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
A healthy Kubel is probably a two-win player as long as he's not asked to spend too much time in the field, since he is not a great fielder and has a habit of getting hurt. His walk rate dipped to a career low 8 percent this year, but he has 20-25 homer potential that would work nicely in a park that's kind to left-handed pull power hitters, something Target Field is not.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Joe Nathan[/h4][h5]#36 RP
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Nathan missed all of 2010 after Tommy John surgery, and he wasn't 100 percent in 2011, as his breaking stuff wasn't sharp and he was down just more than a full mile an hour on his fastball. His control was intact, but reduced command and velocity meant hitters squared up his stuff more easily. However, he could regain the lost velocity or rediscover his command. Buyers here have a solid baseline performance with several ways he could get better.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jim Thome[/h4][h5]#25 DH
Cleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
He's a left-handed-hitting DH who can mash right-handed pitching but probably could use a caddie against lefties. Thome still gets on base and has above-average power, but at his age, he is going to remain injury-prone and could reach the cliff (over which we find the abyss of offensive irrelevance) at any point.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Francisco Cordero[/h4][h5]#48 RP
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
Don't let the silly save stat fool you -- Cordero's contract was a loser for Cincinnati, as the value he provided wasn't close to the absurd salary the Reds paid him. Yes, he has the "closer" label, but he also has a diminishing ability to miss bats with a fastball that is down a full grade since he signed with the Reds. He could carve out a few more years as a setup man/middle guy who pitches more with his off-speed stuff, as he can't blow the fastball by hitters like he used to do.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Kyuji Fujikawa[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Hanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Fujikawa isn't a free agent but there's a good chance he'll be posted, as he has one year left before true free agency. The timing would be good, as Fujikawa is coming off a year in which he struck out 80 of the 179 batters he faced. Fujikawa is up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around 92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he commands it well; he'll also show a junk curveball that he probably should shelve if he comes over. He might be homer-prone with the straight fastball, but the splitter is a potential difference-maker.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Frank Francisco[/h4][h5]#50 RP
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
He isn't reliable enough to be his team's high-leverage arm, but he throws enough strikes and misses enough bats with his fastball-splitter combo to make up for his erratic command and related tendency to give up hard contact. One red flag is that the Jays rarely used him on back-to-back days, and when they did, he got pounded for a .353/.405/.618 line across 37 plate appearances (small sample size caveat applies).
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]J.D. Drew[/h4][h5]#7 RF
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
In the first three years of his five-year deal with Boston, Drew posted a .276/.390/.485 line with above-average defense in right field. At 35, he's not likely to be that player again, but if healthy, he'll be a lot better than his abysmal 2011 line, as a disciplined hitter who will have the ability to turn on a mistake once his shoulder is fully healed. Unfortunately, Drew does get hurt a lot, meaning the smart deal here would be a contract with easily attainable incentives for games played.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2011 STATS
Iwakuma chose not to sign with Oakland last winter after the A's agreed to a posting fee, but he had a very disappointing 2011 and probably won't fare any better as a true free agent this fall. A shoulder injury had his velocity down to 84-86 mph, although he was back up to 87-90 by the end of the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he's shown in the past. If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he could be someone's fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and tends to keep the ball down.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Matt Murton[/h4][h5]#9 OF
Hanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Murton hasn't decided yet whether to come back after two big years in Japan; he's at least a solid fourth outfielder over here who rakes against left-handed pitchers and is still playable against right-handers. Murton doesn't have the power to profile as an above-average everyday guy -- even in Japan, his main skill has been hitting for average with modest power and surprisingly few walks -- and in the U.S., he hit too many balls on the ground. Assuming the plate discipline is intact, I could see an OBP in the high .300s from him with enough doubles to make him at least a second-division starter.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Chien-Ming Wang[/h4][h5]#40 SP
Washington Nationals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Wang didn't look sharp in his first few outings back from all his injuries, but by the end of the year, he looked good enough to profile as a back-end starter. His sinker will be more 88-90 mph than its old 90-93, but the sink is still good enough to keep the ball on the ground, and both his splitter and slider were getting sharper as the season ended. I'd be very wary of any pitcher with his history of shoulder injuries, but a full season of the version of Wang we saw the final weeks of September would be worth two wins above replacement.
#11-30.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Edwin Jackson[/h4][h5]#22 SP
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Jackson might be the biggest heartbreaker for general managers and pitching coaches around the game; it's hard to pass on a guy who can easily hold 97 mph for seven or eight innings. But outside of the first half of 2009 with the Tigers, he hasn't produced results to match the top-of-the-rotation stuff in more than 1,000 big league innings.
Working with Don Cooper in Chicago, Jackson threw more sliders and kept the ball down in the zone better than he had previously. But he didn't hold those trends after the trade to St. Louis, and going forward, he's likely to be what we thought he was: a hard thrower who tries to work in the upper half of the zone too much and gets punished for it with extra-base hits. On the plus side, he's been durable, with 31 or more starts in each of the past five seasons, so there's value here for the middle of a rotation, but not in the first two spots of a good one.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Javier Vazquez[/h4][h5]#23 SP
Florida Marlins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Vazquez's stuff finally ticked up over the course of 2011 after an outlier 2010 season in which his average fastball velocity was the worst of his career. In the second half of this year, he was throwing as hard as he had before he was traded to the Yankees, with no apparent reason for the fluctuations. Vazquez works primarily with the fastball, throwing strikes and getting ahead with it, and complements the heater with a slow curveball that looks like it shouldn't miss bats but does. He also features an above-average changeup he busts out against lefties.
Vazquez has a strong record of health outside of the lost 2010 season; since 1999, last year is the only one in which he didn't make 32 starts or throw at least 190 innings, and that was due to ineffectiveness rather than a serious injury. He might choose to retire this offseason, but if not, any team looking for a durable starter for the middle or back of its rotation should try to coax him into another year.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Hiroki Kuroda[/h4][h5]#18 SP
Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year before the closed period ended, meaning he didn't wait to negotiate with other clubs, and it's possible Kuroda would pitch only for the Dodgers or head back to Japan to pitch in the NPB. He doesn't have a true out pitch but throws a ton of strikes and, until 2011, was a moderate ground ball pitcher who kept the ball in the park. This year, however, he had the lowest ground ball rate and highest line-drive rate of his career (per FanGraphs), as his sinker didn't have its usual sink. He has a soft splitter he uses against left-handed hitters and a mid-80s downward-breaking slider against righties, and hasn't lost any significant velocity. But when a soon-to-be-37-year-old pitcher suddenly sees his line-drive rate jump by 15 percent to 20 percent over his career average, that's a big red flag.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Carlos Pena[/h4][h5]#22 1B
Chicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
It wasn't the triumphant comeback season Pena probably hoped for, but he did re-establish some value for himself with a moderately productive year in which he showed his two major skills -- taking a walk and hitting for above-average power -- were still intact against right-handed pitching. Pena hit .255/.388/.504 (BA/OBP/SLG) against righties this year but was useless against southpaws, hitting .133/.260/.333 with 46 strikeouts in 146 plate appearances. It was the second year in a row he couldn't hit left-handers.
The pitch recognition he shows against right-handers is key, as he's clearly lost some bat speed -- you can put good velocity by him more easily than you could two or three years ago. He's an above-average defender and hard worker who earns raves for his makeup, but at the end of the day, he is only as good as his ability to make contact and is probably best suited to platoon duty at first base with a right-handed-hitting partner.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Michael Cuddyer[/h4][h5]#5 RF
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Cuddyer is a man without a position who doesn't hit enough quality pitching to profile as a regular anywhere he can play, although he's likely to get an everyday job in an outfield corner or as a DH. Since he first became a semi-regular player in 2004, Cuddyer has hit .273/.344/.453, very close to his 2011 line, and he's been only substantially better than that twice in those eight seasons, most recently in 2009 when his power spiked but OBP was still .342.
His power is almost entirely dead pull, with a strong front side and good hip rotation, but in 2011, he was behind decent fastballs and teed off instead on changeups, which might be a fluke but could be an early harbinger of his decline phase. The biggest problem is that he is a liability in left or right field and is best suited to DH duty, but has never had a season that would justify playing him there every day, which should leave a number of teams looking at him as a part-time player rather than a full-timer.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ryan Madson[/h4][h5]#46 RP
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors right now. He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. Not only do hitters swing and miss at it, but they swing too early on it and end up way out in front. The cutter is just a show-me pitch to remind hitters even a fastball might not be straight, but it doesn't cut enough to be a major weapon for him.
He has thrown just 113 innings the past two years around non-arm injuries but was good for 159 the previous two years, and I'd like to see him stretched out more in some of his outings since he holds his stuff well, has plus control and shows no platoon split. I don't love high-end free-agent relievers because their contracts tend to be too long, but Madson is an exception.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Kelly Johnson[/h4][h5]#2 2B
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
Johnson has become an all-or-nothing player over the course of his career, with wild swings in his batting average on balls in play that result in part from trouble maintaining a consistent swing. What saves Johnson is that he works deep counts and has above-average power so that even in a down year such as 2011, he's contributing something on offense.
He has a sound swing when he's right, but he tends to lose confidence quickly and overcompensate, especially in two-strike counts. And since he is such a patient hitter, he sees a lot of those deep counts. Once he's behind, he's more likely to chase off-speed stuff. He is fringy at best at second base but would be above average to plus if he returned to left field, a position where, in good years, his bat profiles fine. He's a great high-risk/high-reward candidate on a one-year deal or even a two-year deal with a lower base pay and some incentives.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jonathan Papelbon[/h4][h5]#58 RP
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
In 2008-09, Papelbon had become something of a caricature of himself on the mound, throwing fastball after fastball, getting hit and showing no understanding of why he was getting hit. (Hint: It had to do with all the fastballs.) In 2010, he brought back his old out pitch, a hard-tumbling splitter, and it has helped him keep hitters from sitting on the straight, if hard (mid-90s), four-seamer.
Papelbon had some shoulder issues earlier in his career but has maintained a standard closer's workload of 60 to 70 innings a year for the past four seasons and should be good for a few more like that. But it speaks volumes that in 2011, one of his best seasons in the majors, Papelbon was worth only about three wins above a replacement pitcher (per FanGraphs). Between that and the risk of long-term relief contracts, he's about as clear a lock to be overpaid this winter as any free agent.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Wei-Ying Chen[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Chunichi Dragons[/h5]
2011 STATS
Chen was born in Taiwan but has pitched in Japan's NPB for several years. He's had good results, but a decline in his stuff this year probably will limit his market.
He had been sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn't have its usual bite. By the end of the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper, so MLB teams' interest might depend on when in the year they saw him. He has a decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty specialist, although it's not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus control, with 31 walks in 164 2/3 innings this year for Chunichi, but after striking out more than 21 percent of the hitters he faced in his first three full seasons in NPB, his strikeout rate dropped to 14 percent this year. He is only 25 and offers more upside than the typical NPB refugee, both due to age and the chance for the slider to become a consistently plus pitch.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Josh Willingham[/h4][h5]#16 LF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
I'd love to tell you Willingham's drop in average and OBP was just a function of moving to a brutal ballpark for hitters, but his home/road splits for 2011 don't support that story. In fact, he was much better at home (.874 OPS) than on the road (.750 OPS). Instead we're looking more at an oft-injured hitter who didn't like the tougher pitching of the American League and is probably entering his decline phase.
Willingham has always been a patient hitter but swung through more fastballs in the zone this year and did little damage against off-speed stuff, a dangerous combination for a hitter entering his age-33 season. He is a well-below-average defender in left and is only going to get worse there as he ages. I'd take a flier on him as a bench bat and emergency starter in left or at DH, but not for more than a year, given all the warning signs in his 2011 season.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]David DeJesus[/h4][h5]#12 RF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
DeJesus cost himself a fair amount of money with a terrible walk year that can't be blamed solely on Oakland's unfriendly home park because he wasn't good on the road in 2011, either. He always had a solid approach in Kansas City with strong contact rates and the ability to square up a decent fastball, but in 2011, pitchers began to beat him in the strike zone, especially with velocity. He would swing through good fastballs or pop them up and didn't square up enough of the pitches a major league hitter should hit. His offensive decline was most noticeable with a lefty on the mound, as he hit .174/.227/.231 against southpaws, way out of line with his prior performances against them.
He's very good in an outfield corner -- better left than right because of his fringy arm -- but his speed has never translated well in center and I think he'll be below average there as he ages. He turns 32 in December and probably is entering his decline phase, but I'd take a shot at him as a platoon bat in left field who could play up a little if the bat speed and platoon split issues were just one-year aberrations.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Roy Oswalt[/h4][h5]#44 SP
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
It's not clear how much Oswalt will be able to pitch given his back injuries, but if he's healthy enough to make 20 to 25 starts, he could still have value as a league-average to slightly above-average starter. The injury robbed him of some arm speed, reflected in both his fastball velocity and the sharpness of his off-speed stuff, and if he's not healthy enough to establish his fastball, he'll have to change his approach and work more as a finesse pitcher. His mid-80s slider is short, almost cutter-like, while his slow curveball got slower as his arm did, and even with good downward break, it's not a great weapon if it's down in the 60s.
His presence in this spot is more a reflection of his command and feel for pitching; if he's sitting at 89-90 mph, he has the off-speed stuff and the knowledge to remake himself and pitch backward, and there's always the chance he gets healthy enough to sit at 92-93 mph again and be a solid No. 2 starter.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Erik Bedard[/h4][h5]#23 SP
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
Bedard re-established a little value for himself in a 2011 season in which he was effective around his usual trips to the DL, showing he can still miss bats but probably will never have the durability or control to be more than a back-end starter.
He works mostly fastball-curveball now, sitting right around 90 mph with a little late life on the fastball, while the curve is really his out pitch, still effective in the lower 70s due to a very sharp break that seems to accelerate as it reaches the hitter. On nights when he can locate the fastball enough to get ahead, he'll put hitters away with the breaking ball; on nights when he can't locate the fastball, he doesn't have much of a Plan B. And he gets hurt a lot. But lefties who can miss bats, even intermittently, are worth a shot on incentive-laden deals, which is what Bedard probably is looking at for the foreseeable future.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Paul Maholm[/h4][h5]#28 SP
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
Maholm's season ended Aug. 20 when the Pirates placed him on the DL with a left shoulder strain, so his market is going to be a function of team doctors' reviews of his records and what happens if and when he takes a physical.
He posted the best ERA of his career in 2011, but it wasn't actually a great year for him, just a lucky one on balls allowed into play ... and Maholm allows a lot of them. He does throw strikes, and tends to keep the ball down and thus in the park despite a below-average fastball that was the slowest of his career in 2011, which likely was a function of whatever is going on in his shoulder. When healthy, he'll sit around 87-89 mph with a slow curveball and a slider that isn't sharp but runs away from left-handed hitters just enough to be effective. However, the slider was too flat this year and his change was too close in velocity to his fastball. The upside here is that you might get a left-handed starter with good control for the third or fourth spot in your rotation on a cheap, incentive-heavy deal. The downside here is that the dip in his velocity this past season could be a harbinger of disaster, or he might have something seriously wrong in his shoulder and miss even more time.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Grady Sizemore[/h4][h5]#24 CF
Cleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
Across multiple injuries, Sizemore has been a nonfactor at the plate the past two years in Cleveland, amassing just 335 plate appearances over that time with a .220/.280/.379 line. And while he was better in 2009, he hasn't been a truly above-average player since 2008. He shouldn't be in center anymore, as injuries to both knees have hurt his range, and he's more likely to stay healthy covering less ground in left or just DHing. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt, as he was a very patient hitter in his healthy years, and there's an upside play as a left fielder who can get on base and might hit 20 homers. However, he needs to be close to 100 percent to produce.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Coco Crisp[/h4][h5]#4 CF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
Crisp is yet another position player coming off a down year as he heads into free agency. It was season that started badly when he was charged with driving under the influence during spring training, and it never got better. Crisp can hit a fastball and, not coincidentally, saw fewer fastballs in 2011 than he had in any previous year as a starter; word gets around, and until he shows he can hit off-speed stuff, he'll see a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups. Once an above-average defender in center, Crisp has lost a step and is closer to average at this point. His value has largely been in his glove, as he is not a great on-base guy and has below-average power, so he's a potential regular only as long as he can stay in center. At 32, he'll probably be able to do that for only another two or three years.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Johnny Damon[/h4][h5]#22 DH
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2011 STATS
Damon still has enough speed and pop to have value to a club in at least a part-time role, but he probably belongs in a DH spot and his bat isn't what it used to be. What concerns me about Damon is that 2011 was his worst year in terms of approach, with his lowest full-season walk total since 1997 while his strikeout rate remained where it's been over the past two years. He's running deep counts, but they're not ending as well for him as they used to, and he's not capitalizing on getting ahead in the count as he once did. I don't think Damon is done, but I wouldn't go beyond one year given the red flags here and his below-average defense in left field.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Francisco Rodriguez[/h4][h5]#57 RP
Milwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
K-Rod is no longer an overrated closer living off his past laurels, but rather a capable setup man. He sits in the 89-92 mph range with his fastball but keeps it down more effectively than he used to. He misses bats with an action changeup in the low 80s that drops out of sight, meaning hitters who were sitting fastball will be lucky to get a tiny piece of the pitch. The wildness that crept into his game in his last years with the Angels appears to be gone, and the once-devastating slider is more of a downer curveball in the upper 70s that he probably could relegate to show-me status. Three years ago, he looked like fool's gold in free agency, and he was. This time around, he is not as high profile but looks like he's embarking on a second act.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ryan Doumit[/h4][h5]#41 C
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
He can't catch -- let's just get that out of the way now. He can't handle the position and can't stay healthy when he tries. But Doumit can hit a little, with a .280/.337/.454 composite line over the past five years, and could make a fine, cheap DH or emergency LF/1B for someone, although he's not as selective as he'd need to be to profile as more than an average regular. He's a switch-hitter who's stronger from the left side but capable enough either way that he doesn't need a platoon partner; his only real weakness is against pitchers who can change speeds effectively. He's been fragile enough that I'd just let him DH and see whether I could get 140 games out of him, but I imagine there will be interest in him as a first baseman (no thanks) or in left or right field (maybe, but I doubt it).
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Aaron Hill[/h4][h5]#2 2B
Arizona Diamondbacks[/h5]
2011 STATS
Hill seemed to like facing National League pitching a lot more than he liked American League pitching, hitting .315/.386/.492 after the trade from Toronto to Arizona and reaching base in 29 of 33 games with the Diamondbacks. It is a tiny sample and won't hold unless Hill continues to stay short to the ball, rather than trying to pull everything out of the park as he has since his 36-homer outburst in 2009. He's an above-average defender at second who can still run and plays with a ton of energy, making him well worth the gamble to see whether the change of scenery really did restart his bat.
#1-10.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Prince Fielder[/h4][h5]#28 1B
Milwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Fielder reaches the market at an unusually young age, entering his age-28 season, meaning that the team that signs him likely will get all of his peak years plus a few early decline years, as opposed to the typical free-agent hitter who signs a big deal just as he's entering his decline phase.
He offers an impressive package of plus power, patience and ability to hit, while playing a capable first base, and is likely to hold that offensive value for the majority of that next contract, even if it reaches eight years. For a big guy with wide hips, Fielder is able to turn on the inside pitch surprisingly well, a testament to both his bat (and hand) speed and the fact that he's pretty athletic for his size. He has a fairly persistent platoon split that isn't likely to go away entirely; his improvements against left-handed pitching in 2011 -- particularly in making contact -- probably represent his ceiling in that area, and he still doesn't like the breaking ball moving away from him. And although some are concerned about his girth, it should be noted that he has averaged 160 games played per season since 2006.
The risks are obvious -- that he regresses against left-handed pitchers, that he doesn't continue to work to stay in shape, that the fact that a third of his walks in 2011 were intentional is causing us to overstate his patience -- but they are more than mitigated by the chance to get a premium bat who is productive and durable for all his prime years.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Albert Pujols[/h4][h5]#5 1B
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
If their ages were closer, Pujols would be the obvious choice over Fielder for this list, but Pujols, listed at age 32 for the 2012 season, probably is going to spend more time in his decline phase on this next contract than he is producing at his customary levels.
Pujols' 2011 season started slowly, crafting an absurd narrative about the pressure of the contract year getting to him. Meanwhile, the pressure of the postseason hasn't fazed him one bit, has it? From June 1 until the end of the regular season, including a September in which every game mattered for the team, he hit a very Pujolsian .318/.383/.613 (BA/OBP/SLG).
Pujols' swing is simple and direct, with outstanding hip rotation to help him generate power, and he has one of the strongest batting eyes in the game. His first 10 years rank with the first decade of any player in the history of the game. Unlike Fielder, Pujols doesn't show a serious platoon split and is a plus defensive first baseman. But, also unlike Fielder, Pujols has had injury trouble, including an elbow injury that required surgery after the 2008 season and tendinitis in the other elbow last year, although he's missed significant time only for a fractured arm this season. And Pujols is at least 32 heading into 2012, an age at which most hitters are beginning their decline phase ... and that's if we ignore the persistent yet unproven rumors that Pujols is older than his listed age would indicate; if his real age differed from his listed age, it would dramatically affect his expected output on the contract.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4][h5]#11 SP
Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters[/h5]
2011 STATS
Darvish has been the object of MLB teams' affection dating back to the 2009 World Baseball Classic, for his combination of plus stuff, incredible performances and size. On that year's Japanese WBC roster, he was a good 4 inches taller than all but one of the other pitchers, so he's built more like the American scouting ideal. Darvish, who is half-Japanese and half-Iranian, needs to come to MLB if he wants to be challenged further after he punched out 276 in 232 innings in Japan this season while walking just 30 unintentionally.
Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings.
He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jose Reyes[/h4][h5]#7 SS
New York Mets[/h5]
2011 STATS
After two injury-plagued years, Reyes got mostly healthy in time for a free-agent push, posting career bests in all rate stats, including the all-encompassing wOBA. A switch-hitter, Reyes has a different swing on each side of the plate but tends to get similar results. Hitting right-handed, he drops his hands and rotates his hips more, while left-handed, he is shorter and more direct to the ball but seems to square it up more consistently. He has had trouble with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but manages to spoil enough of them that he can get back into fastball counts and do more damage.
Reyes would be first on this list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jimmy Rollins[/h4][h5]#11 SS
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
Rollins is the poor man's Jose Reyes in this market, a capable shortstop who has struggled with leg injuries (in this case, calf and groin), but who didn't have the same big year Reyes did to boost him heading into free agency. Rollins also doesn't have Reyes' plate discipline or ability to recognize breaking stuff, but he can get around fine on a good fastball and uses his legs to create more hits and (outside of 2011, at least) add value on the bases.
He remains a slightly above-average defensive shortstop but his range has been reduced by his leg problems the past two years, and at 33, he was unlikely to maintain his defensive value much longer even if he stayed healthy. He can fill the shortstop hole for a team in need for two or three years, but betting on him for longer than that is exceedingly risky given his age, health and recent performance.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Mark Buehrle[/h4][h5]#56 SP
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
Buehrle is overrated by those who want to discuss his potential Hall of Fame case (I'm not on board), but he is underrated because of his lack of premium performances. His best attribute is his ability to log innings -- he throws with about as little effort as anyone this side of Livan Hernandez and has plus control, letting him work deep into games.
Buehrle has thrown more than 200 innings and made at least 30 starts in 11 straight seasons, and the last year in which he walked more than 50 batters unintentionally was 2003. In addition, he's led the American League in hits allowed in four of the past seven seasons, a function of that same durability, but also of his lack of any out pitch and a fringy-at-best fastball. His fastball sits in the mid-80s; however, he pairs it with a big-breaking cutter that looks more like a slider but is closer in velocity to his fastball than an ordinary slider would be, as well as an upper-70s changeup with downward action and good arm speed. He hides the ball well behind his body. In front of a bad defense, Buehrle could be a disaster, but in the right environment, he's a solid innings eater in the middle of a rotation who provides unusual reliability.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Aramis Ramirez[/h4][h5]#16 3B
Chicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
Ramirez's peak years are now behind him, making him a risky player in a market thin with safe power threats beyond its top two options. He's a severe pull hitter who likes the ball middle-in or just tailing in toward his bat, and while he has the strength to drive the ball the other way, he rarely stays back enough to do so.
Pitchers can attack him with velocity, especially away where he can't try to start his bat early and pull it, but he hasn't yet experienced the big loss of bat speed you'd expect given his age and body type. That will come in the next few years, of course, as Ramirez (like all of us) faces that penalty for a crime he hasn't committed, one that already has turned him from an indifferent defender at third into an outright bad one. Moved to first base, he could turn in a few productive years as a second-tier power hitter who makes enough contact to get on base at a reasonable clip. He's also one of the most likely players in this market to go all Adam Dunn on his new employers.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]C.J. Wilson[/h4][h5]#36 SP
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Wilson's up-and-down October didn't help his free-agent case, but I doubt it hurt it, either, as he'd thrown a career-high 223 innings during the regular season in just his second season as a starter after four-plus years in the 'pen. That said, it might have opened a few eyes to Wilson's true status as a No. 2 starter rather than an ace who'll miss enough bats to succeed in any environment.
His slider is his most effective pitch, a low-80s offering with good tilt that hitters hit into the ground when they don't swing over it, and he'll throw it down and away to a left-handed hitter or throw it at the back foot of a right-handed one. His weakness is fringy fastball command. He throws strikes with his heater but fails to locate it within the zone. The good news is he cut his walk rate in 2011 over 2010. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003 but spent several years in relief building up arm strength, so he might be a safer bet to stay healthy than most 31-year-old starters because he has less mileage on his current elbow. I just don't see him anchoring a staff unless it's one with a stellar infield behind him.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Carlos Beltran[/h4][h5]#15 RF
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
His MVP-level performances of 2006 and 2008 are long gone, but Beltran did re-establish himself as an above-average regular in 2011 by staying mostly healthy and showing he hasn't lost any bat speed, although he had to move to right field and probably is best suited to left at this point due to his diminished range. He still can turn on a good fastball and showed he can hit from both sides of the plate, but his baserunning, once a huge part of the value he provided as a player because he was so rarely caught stealing, is no longer a factor. Many teams can and will do worse at the DH spot, but others might be willing to accept the loss of five or so runs of value on defense and the added injury risk by playing him in left, especially since Beltran has a clause in his contract that prevents the Giants from offering him arbitration, which means the team that signs him won't need to give up a draft pick as compensation.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]David Ortiz[/h4][h5]#34 DH
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
I thought Ortiz was cooked more than a year ago, but he discovered a fountain of youth ... OK, perhaps not the best metaphor here, but his baseball life has had a second act after all, with 2011 ending up his best year since 2007. Some of this was likely a fluke, as Ortiz posted career-best numbers against left-handed pitching, usually an area of weakness for him, but he murdered fastballs from both left- and right-handed pitchers all year, a resurgence in the bat speed that had deserted him (seemingly for good) back in 2009.
He is primarily a pull hitter and wants the ball right out over the plate; he's improved his ability to lay off the ball away, which he's just going to roll over anyway. He's limited to the designated hitter spot -- seriously, you don't want him on the field -- which limits his value, but if he can maintain this impressive new selectivity, he'll have a few more similarly productive years at the plate.
Buyer Beware: CJ Wilson.
Five Moves That Should Happen.
Orioles stalled by a perception problem.
#31-50.
Spoiler [+]
| 31 | Ronny Cedeno |
| Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ronny Cedeno[/h4][h5]#5 SSPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM128
- HR2
- RBI32
- R43
- OBP.297
- AVG.249
Cedeno is a solid-average defender at shortstop who can hit enough off-speed stuff -- he's consistently behind above-average fastballs -- to play every day, given how shallow the MLB shortstop pool is right now. There's not much in the bat other than some ability to make contact, as he doesn't walk and can't hit for power with a hands-heavy approach, and I'd love to know how any player could be caught stealing five times in seven attempts without the first-base coach trying to nail his foot to the bag.
| 32 | Ramon Hernandez |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: C '11 team: Cincinnati Reds | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ramon Hernandez[/h4][h5]#55 CCincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM91
- HR12
- RBI36
- R28
- OBP.341
- AVG.282
There's little catching available on the free-agent market this winter, and saying Hernandez is the best of the lot is the faintest of praise. He's caught a total of 228 games over the past three seasons, and after a strong first half in 2011 (that was out of line with his career anyway), he wilted in just 38 games after the break, posting a .220/.287/.305 (BA/OBP/SLG) line before he was relegated to part-time duty in favor of heir apparent Devin Mesoraco. He's an above-average throwing catcher and fringy receiver who lives off mistakes and fastballs left over the plate. The state of catching across MLB is bad enough that he's still worth a one-year deal, even at his advanced age.
| 33 | Bartolo Colon |
| Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Bartolo Colon[/h4][h5]#40 SPNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM29
- W8
- L10
- BB40
- K135
- ERA4.00
Before he got hurt (again) in mid-June, Colon was a revelation for the Yankees, with a 3.10 ERA in 78 innings, allowing just 18 walks and punching out 72. After his DL stint, Colon was a different guy, posting a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings, during which batters hit .301/.343/.494 off him, including 12 home runs. He lost some velocity around the injury, especially the ability to reach back and get 94-95 mph when he needed it, and given the controversy around the treatment he received prior to the season, he might find a chilly reception this winter.
| 34 | Bruce Chen |
| Age: 34 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Kansas City Royals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Bruce Chen[/h4][h5]#52 SPKansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM25
- W12
- L8
- BB50
- K97
- ERA3.77
Chen has remade himself into a finesse lefty. He is not quite the new Jamie Moyer but is along those lines as a guy who succeeds with a below-average fastball by pitching backward and locating his off-speed stuff well. He will work at 83-86 mph but sinks the ball, rarely coming at hitters in the upper half of the zone (where he would get pounded like a cube steak), and throws a hard (relative to his fastball) slider with good tilt that is very tough on left-handed hitters. His changeup doesn't fade, so he throws it at the outer half against right-handed hitters, and it's effective because of the change of pace rather than any real action or deception.
He did have a fortunate schedule this year; only seven of his 25 starts came against teams with winning records, and he cleaned up in the other 18 outings with a 2.69 ERA and just six homers allowed in 117 innings. I wouldn't touch him in the American League East, but in the National League, he could carve out a nice career as a back-end lefty who mixes in enough long starts around the occasional disaster to be worth two wins a year.
| 35 | Jeff Francis |
| Age: 30 Bats: LThrows: L Position: SP '11 team: Kansas City Royals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jeff Francis[/h4][h5]#26 SPKansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM31
- W6
- L16
- BB39
- K91
- ERA4.82
Thanks to excellent control, Francis survived (barely) pitching with a grade-35 fastball in 2011. He is not a ground ball guy and certainly isn't missing many bats at 84-85 mph, and the only thing that kept his ERA below 5.00 was three starts against National League lineups. I could see taking a low-base, one-year gamble on Francis in a big NL park, with the hope that another year removed from shoulder surgery sees him regain a little arm strength, but in the wrong environment, he will be terribly homer-prone and won't stick in a rotation.
| 36 | Freddy Garcia |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '10 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Freddy Garcia[/h4][h5]#36 SPNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM26
- W12
- L8
- BB45
- K96
- ERA3.62
Garcia's repertoire of slop seemed like an awful fit for hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the team's American League East opponents, but Garcia compensated by throwing relatively few fastballs, avoiding walks and just getting kind of lucky all around. Strip out the luck, and you have a fringe-average AL starter who can miss a few bats with a big-tumbling split-fingered fastball and fringy breaking stuff. Given his history of injuries and career-worst velocity this year, I'm not optimistic here, but his 2011 season was good enough to merit another one-year deal.
| 37 | Andruw Jones |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Andruw Jones[/h4][h5]#18 LFNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM77
- HR13
- RBI33
- R27
- OBP.356
- AVG.247
Jones hasn't been a regular in ages, but has been steadily showing his value in a platoon role as a lefty-masher and as an above-average defender in an outfield corner. He works the count well and tries to get a fastball he can drive, which works when there's a southpaw on the mound. Jones has hit .274/.379/.547 against left-handed pitching over the past two years in 248 plate appearances, and even in 2009, when he didn't really hit anyone well, he at least managed a .367 OBP against southpaws. He can handle right or left field, although sadly his days in center are long gone. Give him a left-handed-hitting platoon partner, and you could have an above-average combination in left or right.
| 38 | Rafael Furcal |
| Age: 34 Bats: Both Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Rafael Furcal[/h4][h5]#15 SSSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM87
- HR8
- RBI28
- R44
- OBP.298
- AVG.231
Furcal still owns one of the best infield arms I've ever seen; in a parallel universe, he's on the back nine of a long career as a shutdown closer. He might be the biggest upside play in free agency this year, since he wasn't healthy for much of the season and even his line with St. Louis (.255/.316/.41
doesn't reflect how he'll likely hit if he can stay on the field for 120 games in 2012. Defensive metrics have Furcal below average at short this past year, but again, that looks like a function of lack of health rather than a real decline in skills. On a one-year deal, he could be a huge bargain.| 39 | Cody Ross |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: San Francisco Giants | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Cody Ross[/h4][h5]#13 LFSan Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM121
- HR14
- RBI52
- R54
- OBP.325
- AVG.240
Ross' value would have been higher after his fluky finish to 2010, but a full year in San Francisco has hurt him, as his power was stifled by the ballpark. He's an average to above-average defender in either corner who can handle center field on an emergency basis (except in a huge park such as the Giants') and provide 20-homer power over a full season. It's also somewhat promising that in an otherwise down year, Ross set a career high in walks and walk rate.
| 40 | Heath Bell |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: San Diego Padres | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RPSan Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM64
- W3
- L4
- BB21
- K51
- ERA2.44
Bell seems to want to stay in San Diego rather than test the market, and with good reason: His style of pitching isn't going to work in a lot of environments. He throws hard, 92-95 mph, but it's straight and up in the zone, resulting in a lot of fly balls and line drives. The Padres play so many games a year in pitchers' parks that he's thrived there over the past five years, but I'd be very wary of him in a smaller stadium or in the American League East.
| 41 | Jason Kubel |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jason Kubel[/h4][h5]#16 RFMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM99
- HR12
- RBI58
- R37
- OBP.332
- AVG.273
A healthy Kubel is probably a two-win player as long as he's not asked to spend too much time in the field, since he is not a great fielder and has a habit of getting hurt. His walk rate dipped to a career low 8 percent this year, but he has 20-25 homer potential that would work nicely in a park that's kind to left-handed pull power hitters, something Target Field is not.
| 42 | Joe Nathan |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: Starting pitcher '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Joe Nathan[/h4][h5]#36 RPMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM48
- W2
- L1
- BB14
- K43
- ERA4.84
Nathan missed all of 2010 after Tommy John surgery, and he wasn't 100 percent in 2011, as his breaking stuff wasn't sharp and he was down just more than a full mile an hour on his fastball. His control was intact, but reduced command and velocity meant hitters squared up his stuff more easily. However, he could regain the lost velocity or rediscover his command. Buyers here have a solid baseline performance with several ways he could get better.
| 43 | Jim Thome |
| Age: 41 Bats: L Throws: R Position: DH '11 team: Cleveland Indians | Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jim Thome[/h4][h5]#25 DHCleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM93
- HR15
- RBI50
- R32
- OBP.361
- AVG.256
He's a left-handed-hitting DH who can mash right-handed pitching but probably could use a caddie against lefties. Thome still gets on base and has above-average power, but at his age, he is going to remain injury-prone and could reach the cliff (over which we find the abyss of offensive irrelevance) at any point.
| 44 | Francisco Cordero |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Cincinnati Reds |
[h4]Francisco Cordero[/h4][h5]#48 RPCincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM68
- W5
- L3
- BB22
- K42
- ERA2.45
Don't let the silly save stat fool you -- Cordero's contract was a loser for Cincinnati, as the value he provided wasn't close to the absurd salary the Reds paid him. Yes, he has the "closer" label, but he also has a diminishing ability to miss bats with a fastball that is down a full grade since he signed with the Reds. He could carve out a few more years as a setup man/middle guy who pitches more with his off-speed stuff, as he can't blow the fastball by hitters like he used to do.
| 45 | Kyuji Fujikawa |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Hanshin Tigers |
[h4]Kyuji Fujikawa[/h4][h5]#21 SPHanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM56
- W3
- L3
- BB13
- K80
- ERA1.24
Fujikawa isn't a free agent but there's a good chance he'll be posted, as he has one year left before true free agency. The timing would be good, as Fujikawa is coming off a year in which he struck out 80 of the 179 batters he faced. Fujikawa is up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around 92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he commands it well; he'll also show a junk curveball that he probably should shelve if he comes over. He might be homer-prone with the straight fastball, but the splitter is a potential difference-maker.
| 46 | Frank Francisco |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Toronto Blue Jays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Frank Francisco[/h4][h5]#50 RPToronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM54
- W1
- L4
- BB18
- K53
- ERA3.55
He isn't reliable enough to be his team's high-leverage arm, but he throws enough strikes and misses enough bats with his fastball-splitter combo to make up for his erratic command and related tendency to give up hard contact. One red flag is that the Jays rarely used him on back-to-back days, and when they did, he got pounded for a .353/.405/.618 line across 37 plate appearances (small sample size caveat applies).
| 47 | J.D. Drew |
| Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]J.D. Drew[/h4][h5]#7 RFBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM81
- HR4
- RBI22
- R23
- OBP.315
- AVG.222
In the first three years of his five-year deal with Boston, Drew posted a .276/.390/.485 line with above-average defense in right field. At 35, he's not likely to be that player again, but if healthy, he'll be a lot better than his abysmal 2011 line, as a disciplined hitter who will have the ability to turn on a mistake once his shoulder is fully healed. Unfortunately, Drew does get hurt a lot, meaning the smart deal here would be a contract with easily attainable incentives for games played.
| 48 | Hisashi Iwakuma |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles |
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]#21 SPTohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM17
- W6
- L7
- BB19
- K90
- ERA2.42
Iwakuma chose not to sign with Oakland last winter after the A's agreed to a posting fee, but he had a very disappointing 2011 and probably won't fare any better as a true free agent this fall. A shoulder injury had his velocity down to 84-86 mph, although he was back up to 87-90 by the end of the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he's shown in the past. If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he could be someone's fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and tends to keep the ball down.
| 49 | Matt Murton |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Hanshin Tigers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Matt Murton[/h4][h5]#9 OFHanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR13
- RBI60
- R66
- OBP.339
- AVG.311
Murton hasn't decided yet whether to come back after two big years in Japan; he's at least a solid fourth outfielder over here who rakes against left-handed pitchers and is still playable against right-handers. Murton doesn't have the power to profile as an above-average everyday guy -- even in Japan, his main skill has been hitting for average with modest power and surprisingly few walks -- and in the U.S., he hit too many balls on the ground. Assuming the plate discipline is intact, I could see an OBP in the high .300s from him with enough doubles to make him at least a second-division starter.
| 50 | Chien-Ming Wang |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Washington Nationals |
[h4]Chien-Ming Wang[/h4][h5]#40 SPWashington Nationals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM11
- W4
- L3
- BB13
- K25
- ERA4.04
Wang didn't look sharp in his first few outings back from all his injuries, but by the end of the year, he looked good enough to profile as a back-end starter. His sinker will be more 88-90 mph than its old 90-93, but the sink is still good enough to keep the ball on the ground, and both his splitter and slider were getting sharper as the season ended. I'd be very wary of any pitcher with his history of shoulder injuries, but a full season of the version of Wang we saw the final weeks of September would be worth two wins above replacement.
#11-30.
Spoiler [+]
| 11 | Edwin Jackson |
| Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago White Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Edwin Jackson[/h4][h5]#22 SPSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W12
- L9
- BB62
- K148
- ERA3.79
Jackson might be the biggest heartbreaker for general managers and pitching coaches around the game; it's hard to pass on a guy who can easily hold 97 mph for seven or eight innings. But outside of the first half of 2009 with the Tigers, he hasn't produced results to match the top-of-the-rotation stuff in more than 1,000 big league innings.
Working with Don Cooper in Chicago, Jackson threw more sliders and kept the ball down in the zone better than he had previously. But he didn't hold those trends after the trade to St. Louis, and going forward, he's likely to be what we thought he was: a hard thrower who tries to work in the upper half of the zone too much and gets punished for it with extra-base hits. On the plus side, he's been durable, with 31 or more starts in each of the past five seasons, so there's value here for the middle of a rotation, but not in the first two spots of a good one.
| 12 | Javier Vazquez |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RHP '11 team: Florida Marlins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Javier Vazquez[/h4][h5]#23 SPFlorida Marlins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W13
- L11
- BB50
- K162
- ERA3.69
Vazquez's stuff finally ticked up over the course of 2011 after an outlier 2010 season in which his average fastball velocity was the worst of his career. In the second half of this year, he was throwing as hard as he had before he was traded to the Yankees, with no apparent reason for the fluctuations. Vazquez works primarily with the fastball, throwing strikes and getting ahead with it, and complements the heater with a slow curveball that looks like it shouldn't miss bats but does. He also features an above-average changeup he busts out against lefties.
Vazquez has a strong record of health outside of the lost 2010 season; since 1999, last year is the only one in which he didn't make 32 starts or throw at least 190 innings, and that was due to ineffectiveness rather than a serious injury. He might choose to retire this offseason, but if not, any team looking for a durable starter for the middle or back of its rotation should try to coax him into another year.
| 13 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Los Angeles Dodgers |
[h4]Hiroki Kuroda[/h4][h5]#18 SPLos Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W13
- L16
- BB49
- K161
- ERA3.07
Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year before the closed period ended, meaning he didn't wait to negotiate with other clubs, and it's possible Kuroda would pitch only for the Dodgers or head back to Japan to pitch in the NPB. He doesn't have a true out pitch but throws a ton of strikes and, until 2011, was a moderate ground ball pitcher who kept the ball in the park. This year, however, he had the lowest ground ball rate and highest line-drive rate of his career (per FanGraphs), as his sinker didn't have its usual sink. He has a soft splitter he uses against left-handed hitters and a mid-80s downward-breaking slider against righties, and hasn't lost any significant velocity. But when a soon-to-be-37-year-old pitcher suddenly sees his line-drive rate jump by 15 percent to 20 percent over his career average, that's a big red flag.
| 14 | Carlos Pena |
| Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L Position: 1B '11 team: Chicago Cubs | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Carlos Pena[/h4][h5]#22 1BChicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM153
- HR28
- RBI80
- R72
- OBP.357
- AVG.225
It wasn't the triumphant comeback season Pena probably hoped for, but he did re-establish some value for himself with a moderately productive year in which he showed his two major skills -- taking a walk and hitting for above-average power -- were still intact against right-handed pitching. Pena hit .255/.388/.504 (BA/OBP/SLG) against righties this year but was useless against southpaws, hitting .133/.260/.333 with 46 strikeouts in 146 plate appearances. It was the second year in a row he couldn't hit left-handers.
The pitch recognition he shows against right-handers is key, as he's clearly lost some bat speed -- you can put good velocity by him more easily than you could two or three years ago. He's an above-average defender and hard worker who earns raves for his makeup, but at the end of the day, he is only as good as his ability to make contact and is probably best suited to platoon duty at first base with a right-handed-hitting partner.
| 15 | Michael Cuddyer |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RF '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Michael Cuddyer[/h4][h5]#5 RFMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM139
- HR20
- RBI70
- R70
- OBP.346
- AVG.284
Cuddyer is a man without a position who doesn't hit enough quality pitching to profile as a regular anywhere he can play, although he's likely to get an everyday job in an outfield corner or as a DH. Since he first became a semi-regular player in 2004, Cuddyer has hit .273/.344/.453, very close to his 2011 line, and he's been only substantially better than that twice in those eight seasons, most recently in 2009 when his power spiked but OBP was still .342.
His power is almost entirely dead pull, with a strong front side and good hip rotation, but in 2011, he was behind decent fastballs and teed off instead on changeups, which might be a fluke but could be an early harbinger of his decline phase. The biggest problem is that he is a liability in left or right field and is best suited to DH duty, but has never had a season that would justify playing him there every day, which should leave a number of teams looking at him as a part-time player rather than a full-timer.
| 16 | Ryan Madson |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ryan Madson[/h4][h5]#46 RPPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM62
- W4
- L2
- BB16
- K62
- ERA2.37
Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors right now. He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. Not only do hitters swing and miss at it, but they swing too early on it and end up way out in front. The cutter is just a show-me pitch to remind hitters even a fastball might not be straight, but it doesn't cut enough to be a major weapon for him.
He has thrown just 113 innings the past two years around non-arm injuries but was good for 159 the previous two years, and I'd like to see him stretched out more in some of his outings since he holds his stuff well, has plus control and shows no platoon split. I don't love high-end free-agent relievers because their contracts tend to be too long, but Madson is an exception.
| 17 | Kelly Johnson |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: R Position: 2B '11 team: Toronto Blue Jays | Arizona Diamondbacks | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Kelly Johnson[/h4][h5]#2 2BToronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM147
- HR21
- RBI58
- R75
- OBP.304
- AVG.222
Johnson has become an all-or-nothing player over the course of his career, with wild swings in his batting average on balls in play that result in part from trouble maintaining a consistent swing. What saves Johnson is that he works deep counts and has above-average power so that even in a down year such as 2011, he's contributing something on offense.
He has a sound swing when he's right, but he tends to lose confidence quickly and overcompensate, especially in two-strike counts. And since he is such a patient hitter, he sees a lot of those deep counts. Once he's behind, he's more likely to chase off-speed stuff. He is fringy at best at second base but would be above average to plus if he returned to left field, a position where, in good years, his bat profiles fine. He's a great high-risk/high-reward candidate on a one-year deal or even a two-year deal with a lower base pay and some incentives.
| 18 | Jonathan Papelbon |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RHP '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jonathan Papelbon[/h4][h5]#58 RPBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM63
- W4
- L1
- BB10
- K87
- ERA2.94
In 2008-09, Papelbon had become something of a caricature of himself on the mound, throwing fastball after fastball, getting hit and showing no understanding of why he was getting hit. (Hint: It had to do with all the fastballs.) In 2010, he brought back his old out pitch, a hard-tumbling splitter, and it has helped him keep hitters from sitting on the straight, if hard (mid-90s), four-seamer.
Papelbon had some shoulder issues earlier in his career but has maintained a standard closer's workload of 60 to 70 innings a year for the past four seasons and should be good for a few more like that. But it speaks volumes that in 2011, one of his best seasons in the majors, Papelbon was worth only about three wins above a replacement pitcher (per FanGraphs). Between that and the risk of long-term relief contracts, he's about as clear a lock to be overpaid this winter as any free agent.
| 19 | Wei-Ying Chen |
| Age: 26 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Chunichi Dragons | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Wei-Ying Chen[/h4][h5]#21 SPChunichi Dragons[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM25
- W8
- L10
- BB31
- K94
- ERA2.68
Chen was born in Taiwan but has pitched in Japan's NPB for several years. He's had good results, but a decline in his stuff this year probably will limit his market.
He had been sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn't have its usual bite. By the end of the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper, so MLB teams' interest might depend on when in the year they saw him. He has a decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty specialist, although it's not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus control, with 31 walks in 164 2/3 innings this year for Chunichi, but after striking out more than 21 percent of the hitters he faced in his first three full seasons in NPB, his strikeout rate dropped to 14 percent this year. He is only 25 and offers more upside than the typical NPB refugee, both due to age and the chance for the slider to become a consistently plus pitch.
| 20 | Josh Willingham |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Oakland Athletics | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Josh Willingham[/h4][h5]#16 LFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM136
- HR29
- RBI98
- R69
- OBP.332
- AVG.246
I'd love to tell you Willingham's drop in average and OBP was just a function of moving to a brutal ballpark for hitters, but his home/road splits for 2011 don't support that story. In fact, he was much better at home (.874 OPS) than on the road (.750 OPS). Instead we're looking more at an oft-injured hitter who didn't like the tougher pitching of the American League and is probably entering his decline phase.
Willingham has always been a patient hitter but swung through more fastballs in the zone this year and did little damage against off-speed stuff, a dangerous combination for a hitter entering his age-33 season. He is a well-below-average defender in left and is only going to get worse there as he ages. I'd take a flier on him as a bench bat and emergency starter in left or at DH, but not for more than a year, given all the warning signs in his 2011 season.
| 21 | David DeJesus |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SSC '11 team: Oakland Athletics | Status: Terms: |
[h4]David DeJesus[/h4][h5]#12 RFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM131
- HR10
- RBI46
- R60
- OBP.323
- AVG.240
DeJesus cost himself a fair amount of money with a terrible walk year that can't be blamed solely on Oakland's unfriendly home park because he wasn't good on the road in 2011, either. He always had a solid approach in Kansas City with strong contact rates and the ability to square up a decent fastball, but in 2011, pitchers began to beat him in the strike zone, especially with velocity. He would swing through good fastballs or pop them up and didn't square up enough of the pitches a major league hitter should hit. His offensive decline was most noticeable with a lefty on the mound, as he hit .174/.227/.231 against southpaws, way out of line with his prior performances against them.
He's very good in an outfield corner -- better left than right because of his fringy arm -- but his speed has never translated well in center and I think he'll be below average there as he ages. He turns 32 in December and probably is entering his decline phase, but I'd take a shot at him as a platoon bat in left field who could play up a little if the bat speed and platoon split issues were just one-year aberrations.
| 22 | Roy Oswalt |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Roy Oswalt[/h4][h5]#44 SPPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM23
- W9
- L10
- BB33
- K93
- ERA3.69
It's not clear how much Oswalt will be able to pitch given his back injuries, but if he's healthy enough to make 20 to 25 starts, he could still have value as a league-average to slightly above-average starter. The injury robbed him of some arm speed, reflected in both his fastball velocity and the sharpness of his off-speed stuff, and if he's not healthy enough to establish his fastball, he'll have to change his approach and work more as a finesse pitcher. His mid-80s slider is short, almost cutter-like, while his slow curveball got slower as his arm did, and even with good downward break, it's not a great weapon if it's down in the 60s.
His presence in this spot is more a reflection of his command and feel for pitching; if he's sitting at 89-90 mph, he has the off-speed stuff and the knowledge to remake himself and pitch backward, and there's always the chance he gets healthy enough to sit at 92-93 mph again and be a solid No. 2 starter.
| 23 | Erik Bedard |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Erik Bedard[/h4][h5]#23 SPBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM24
- W5
- L9
- BB48
- K125
- ERA3.62
Bedard re-established a little value for himself in a 2011 season in which he was effective around his usual trips to the DL, showing he can still miss bats but probably will never have the durability or control to be more than a back-end starter.
He works mostly fastball-curveball now, sitting right around 90 mph with a little late life on the fastball, while the curve is really his out pitch, still effective in the lower 70s due to a very sharp break that seems to accelerate as it reaches the hitter. On nights when he can locate the fastball enough to get ahead, he'll put hitters away with the breaking ball; on nights when he can't locate the fastball, he doesn't have much of a Plan B. And he gets hurt a lot. But lefties who can miss bats, even intermittently, are worth a shot on incentive-laden deals, which is what Bedard probably is looking at for the foreseeable future.
| 24 | Paul Maholm |
| Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Paul Maholm[/h4][h5]#28 SPPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM26
- W6
- L14
- BB50
- K97
- ERA3.66
Maholm's season ended Aug. 20 when the Pirates placed him on the DL with a left shoulder strain, so his market is going to be a function of team doctors' reviews of his records and what happens if and when he takes a physical.
He posted the best ERA of his career in 2011, but it wasn't actually a great year for him, just a lucky one on balls allowed into play ... and Maholm allows a lot of them. He does throw strikes, and tends to keep the ball down and thus in the park despite a below-average fastball that was the slowest of his career in 2011, which likely was a function of whatever is going on in his shoulder. When healthy, he'll sit around 87-89 mph with a slow curveball and a slider that isn't sharp but runs away from left-handed hitters just enough to be effective. However, the slider was too flat this year and his change was too close in velocity to his fastball. The upside here is that you might get a left-handed starter with good control for the third or fourth spot in your rotation on a cheap, incentive-heavy deal. The downside here is that the dip in his velocity this past season could be a harbinger of disaster, or he might have something seriously wrong in his shoulder and miss even more time.
| 25 | Grady Sizemore |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Grady Sizemore[/h4][h5]#24 CFCleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM71
- HR10
- RBI32
- R34
- OBP.285
- AVG.224
Across multiple injuries, Sizemore has been a nonfactor at the plate the past two years in Cleveland, amassing just 335 plate appearances over that time with a .220/.280/.379 line. And while he was better in 2009, he hasn't been a truly above-average player since 2008. He shouldn't be in center anymore, as injuries to both knees have hurt his range, and he's more likely to stay healthy covering less ground in left or just DHing. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt, as he was a very patient hitter in his healthy years, and there's an upside play as a left fielder who can get on base and might hit 20 homers. However, he needs to be close to 100 percent to produce.
| 26 | Coco Crisp |
| Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Oakland Athletics |
[h4]Coco Crisp[/h4][h5]#4 CFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM136
- HR8
- RBI54
- R69
- OBP.314
- AVG.264
Crisp is yet another position player coming off a down year as he heads into free agency. It was season that started badly when he was charged with driving under the influence during spring training, and it never got better. Crisp can hit a fastball and, not coincidentally, saw fewer fastballs in 2011 than he had in any previous year as a starter; word gets around, and until he shows he can hit off-speed stuff, he'll see a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups. Once an above-average defender in center, Crisp has lost a step and is closer to average at this point. His value has largely been in his glove, as he is not a great on-base guy and has below-average power, so he's a potential regular only as long as he can stay in center. At 32, he'll probably be able to do that for only another two or three years.
| 27 | Johnny Damon |
| Age: 37 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: Tampa Bay Rays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Johnny Damon[/h4][h5]#22 DHTampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM150
- HR16
- RBI73
- R79
- OBP.326
- AVG.261
Damon still has enough speed and pop to have value to a club in at least a part-time role, but he probably belongs in a DH spot and his bat isn't what it used to be. What concerns me about Damon is that 2011 was his worst year in terms of approach, with his lowest full-season walk total since 1997 while his strikeout rate remained where it's been over the past two years. He's running deep counts, but they're not ending as well for him as they used to, and he's not capitalizing on getting ahead in the count as he once did. I don't think Damon is done, but I wouldn't go beyond one year given the red flags here and his below-average defense in left field.
| 28 | Francisco Rodriguez |
| Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Francisco Rodriguez[/h4][h5]#57 RPMilwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM73
- W6
- L2
- BB26
- K79
- ERA2.64
K-Rod is no longer an overrated closer living off his past laurels, but rather a capable setup man. He sits in the 89-92 mph range with his fastball but keeps it down more effectively than he used to. He misses bats with an action changeup in the low 80s that drops out of sight, meaning hitters who were sitting fastball will be lucky to get a tiny piece of the pitch. The wildness that crept into his game in his last years with the Angels appears to be gone, and the once-devastating slider is more of a downer curveball in the upper 70s that he probably could relegate to show-me status. Three years ago, he looked like fool's gold in free agency, and he was. This time around, he is not as high profile but looks like he's embarking on a second act.
| 29 | Ryan Doumit |
| Age: 30 Bats: B Throws: R Position: C '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ryan Doumit[/h4][h5]#41 CPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM77
- HR8
- RBI30
- R17
- OBP.353
- AVG.303
He can't catch -- let's just get that out of the way now. He can't handle the position and can't stay healthy when he tries. But Doumit can hit a little, with a .280/.337/.454 composite line over the past five years, and could make a fine, cheap DH or emergency LF/1B for someone, although he's not as selective as he'd need to be to profile as more than an average regular. He's a switch-hitter who's stronger from the left side but capable enough either way that he doesn't need a platoon partner; his only real weakness is against pitchers who can change speeds effectively. He's been fragile enough that I'd just let him DH and see whether I could get 140 games out of him, but I imagine there will be interest in him as a first baseman (no thanks) or in left or right field (maybe, but I doubt it).
| 30 | Aaron Hill |
| Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 2B '11 team: Arizona Diamondbacks | Toronto Blue Jays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Aaron Hill[/h4][h5]#2 2BArizona Diamondbacks[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM137
- HR8
- RBI61
- R61
- OBP.299
- AVG.246
Hill seemed to like facing National League pitching a lot more than he liked American League pitching, hitting .315/.386/.492 after the trade from Toronto to Arizona and reaching base in 29 of 33 games with the Diamondbacks. It is a tiny sample and won't hold unless Hill continues to stay short to the ball, rather than trying to pull everything out of the park as he has since his 36-homer outburst in 2009. He's an above-average defender at second who can still run and plays with a ton of energy, making him well worth the gamble to see whether the change of scenery really did restart his bat.
#1-10.
Spoiler [+]
| 1 | Prince Fielder |
| Age: 27 Bats: L Throws: R Position: 1B '11 team: Milwaukee Brewers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Prince Fielder[/h4][h5]#28 1BMilwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM162
- HR38
- RBI120
- R95
- OBP.415
- AVG.299
Fielder reaches the market at an unusually young age, entering his age-28 season, meaning that the team that signs him likely will get all of his peak years plus a few early decline years, as opposed to the typical free-agent hitter who signs a big deal just as he's entering his decline phase.
He offers an impressive package of plus power, patience and ability to hit, while playing a capable first base, and is likely to hold that offensive value for the majority of that next contract, even if it reaches eight years. For a big guy with wide hips, Fielder is able to turn on the inside pitch surprisingly well, a testament to both his bat (and hand) speed and the fact that he's pretty athletic for his size. He has a fairly persistent platoon split that isn't likely to go away entirely; his improvements against left-handed pitching in 2011 -- particularly in making contact -- probably represent his ceiling in that area, and he still doesn't like the breaking ball moving away from him. And although some are concerned about his girth, it should be noted that he has averaged 160 games played per season since 2006.
The risks are obvious -- that he regresses against left-handed pitchers, that he doesn't continue to work to stay in shape, that the fact that a third of his walks in 2011 were intentional is causing us to overstate his patience -- but they are more than mitigated by the chance to get a premium bat who is productive and durable for all his prime years.
| 2 | Albert Pujols |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 1B '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Albert Pujols[/h4][h5]#5 1BSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM147
- HR37
- RBI99
- R105
- OBP.366
- AVG.299
If their ages were closer, Pujols would be the obvious choice over Fielder for this list, but Pujols, listed at age 32 for the 2012 season, probably is going to spend more time in his decline phase on this next contract than he is producing at his customary levels.
Pujols' 2011 season started slowly, crafting an absurd narrative about the pressure of the contract year getting to him. Meanwhile, the pressure of the postseason hasn't fazed him one bit, has it? From June 1 until the end of the regular season, including a September in which every game mattered for the team, he hit a very Pujolsian .318/.383/.613 (BA/OBP/SLG).
Pujols' swing is simple and direct, with outstanding hip rotation to help him generate power, and he has one of the strongest batting eyes in the game. His first 10 years rank with the first decade of any player in the history of the game. Unlike Fielder, Pujols doesn't show a serious platoon split and is a plus defensive first baseman. But, also unlike Fielder, Pujols has had injury trouble, including an elbow injury that required surgery after the 2008 season and tendinitis in the other elbow last year, although he's missed significant time only for a fractured arm this season. And Pujols is at least 32 heading into 2012, an age at which most hitters are beginning their decline phase ... and that's if we ignore the persistent yet unproven rumors that Pujols is older than his listed age would indicate; if his real age differed from his listed age, it would dramatically affect his expected output on the contract.
| 3 | Yu Darvish |
| Age: 25 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4][h5]#11 SPHokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM28
- W18
- L6
- BB36
- K276
- ERA1.44
Darvish has been the object of MLB teams' affection dating back to the 2009 World Baseball Classic, for his combination of plus stuff, incredible performances and size. On that year's Japanese WBC roster, he was a good 4 inches taller than all but one of the other pitchers, so he's built more like the American scouting ideal. Darvish, who is half-Japanese and half-Iranian, needs to come to MLB if he wants to be challenged further after he punched out 276 in 232 innings in Japan this season while walking just 30 unintentionally.
Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings.
He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings.
| 4 | Jose Reyes |
| Age: 28 Bats: Both Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: New York Mets | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jose Reyes[/h4][h5]#7 SSNew York Mets[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM126
- HR7
- RBI44
- R101
- OBP.384
- AVG.337
After two injury-plagued years, Reyes got mostly healthy in time for a free-agent push, posting career bests in all rate stats, including the all-encompassing wOBA. A switch-hitter, Reyes has a different swing on each side of the plate but tends to get similar results. Hitting right-handed, he drops his hands and rotates his hips more, while left-handed, he is shorter and more direct to the ball but seems to square it up more consistently. He has had trouble with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but manages to spoil enough of them that he can get back into fastball counts and do more damage.
Reyes would be first on this list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available.
| 5 | Jimmy Rollins |
| Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jimmy Rollins[/h4][h5]#11 SSPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR16
- RBI63
- R87
- OBP.338
- AVG.268
Rollins is the poor man's Jose Reyes in this market, a capable shortstop who has struggled with leg injuries (in this case, calf and groin), but who didn't have the same big year Reyes did to boost him heading into free agency. Rollins also doesn't have Reyes' plate discipline or ability to recognize breaking stuff, but he can get around fine on a good fastball and uses his legs to create more hits and (outside of 2011, at least) add value on the bases.
He remains a slightly above-average defensive shortstop but his range has been reduced by his leg problems the past two years, and at 33, he was unlikely to maintain his defensive value much longer even if he stayed healthy. He can fill the shortstop hole for a team in need for two or three years, but betting on him for longer than that is exceedingly risky given his age, health and recent performance.
| 6 | Mark Buehrle |
| Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Chicago White Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Mark Buehrle[/h4][h5]#56 SPChicago White Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM31
- W13
- L9
- BB45
- K109
- ERA3.59
Buehrle is overrated by those who want to discuss his potential Hall of Fame case (I'm not on board), but he is underrated because of his lack of premium performances. His best attribute is his ability to log innings -- he throws with about as little effort as anyone this side of Livan Hernandez and has plus control, letting him work deep into games.
Buehrle has thrown more than 200 innings and made at least 30 starts in 11 straight seasons, and the last year in which he walked more than 50 batters unintentionally was 2003. In addition, he's led the American League in hits allowed in four of the past seven seasons, a function of that same durability, but also of his lack of any out pitch and a fringy-at-best fastball. His fastball sits in the mid-80s; however, he pairs it with a big-breaking cutter that looks more like a slider but is closer in velocity to his fastball than an ordinary slider would be, as well as an upper-70s changeup with downward action and good arm speed. He hides the ball well behind his body. In front of a bad defense, Buehrle could be a disaster, but in the right environment, he's a solid innings eater in the middle of a rotation who provides unusual reliability.
| 7 | Aramis Ramirez |
| Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 3B '11 team: Chicago Cubs | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Aramis Ramirez[/h4][h5]#16 3BChicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM149
- HR26
- RBI93
- R80
- OBP.361
- AVG.306
Ramirez's peak years are now behind him, making him a risky player in a market thin with safe power threats beyond its top two options. He's a severe pull hitter who likes the ball middle-in or just tailing in toward his bat, and while he has the strength to drive the ball the other way, he rarely stays back enough to do so.
Pitchers can attack him with velocity, especially away where he can't try to start his bat early and pull it, but he hasn't yet experienced the big loss of bat speed you'd expect given his age and body type. That will come in the next few years, of course, as Ramirez (like all of us) faces that penalty for a crime he hasn't committed, one that already has turned him from an indifferent defender at third into an outright bad one. Moved to first base, he could turn in a few productive years as a second-tier power hitter who makes enough contact to get on base at a reasonable clip. He's also one of the most likely players in this market to go all Adam Dunn on his new employers.
| 8 | C.J. Wilson |
| Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Texas Rangers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]C.J. Wilson[/h4][h5]#36 SPTexas Rangers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM34
- W16
- L7
- BB74
- K206
- ERA2.94
Wilson's up-and-down October didn't help his free-agent case, but I doubt it hurt it, either, as he'd thrown a career-high 223 innings during the regular season in just his second season as a starter after four-plus years in the 'pen. That said, it might have opened a few eyes to Wilson's true status as a No. 2 starter rather than an ace who'll miss enough bats to succeed in any environment.
His slider is his most effective pitch, a low-80s offering with good tilt that hitters hit into the ground when they don't swing over it, and he'll throw it down and away to a left-handed hitter or throw it at the back foot of a right-handed one. His weakness is fringy fastball command. He throws strikes with his heater but fails to locate it within the zone. The good news is he cut his walk rate in 2011 over 2010. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003 but spent several years in relief building up arm strength, so he might be a safer bet to stay healthy than most 31-year-old starters because he has less mileage on his current elbow. I just don't see him anchoring a staff unless it's one with a stellar infield behind him.
| 9 | Carlos Beltran |
| Age: 34 Bats: B Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Carlos Beltran[/h4][h5]#15 RFSan Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR22
- RBI84
- R78
- OBP.385
- AVG.300
His MVP-level performances of 2006 and 2008 are long gone, but Beltran did re-establish himself as an above-average regular in 2011 by staying mostly healthy and showing he hasn't lost any bat speed, although he had to move to right field and probably is best suited to left at this point due to his diminished range. He still can turn on a good fastball and showed he can hit from both sides of the plate, but his baserunning, once a huge part of the value he provided as a player because he was so rarely caught stealing, is no longer a factor. Many teams can and will do worse at the DH spot, but others might be willing to accept the loss of five or so runs of value on defense and the added injury risk by playing him in left, especially since Beltran has a clause in his contract that prevents the Giants from offering him arbitration, which means the team that signs him won't need to give up a draft pick as compensation.
| 10 | http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5915David Ortiz |
| Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L Position: DH '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]David Ortiz[/h4][h5]#34 DHBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM146
- HR29
- RBI96
- R84
- OBP.398
- AVG.309
I thought Ortiz was cooked more than a year ago, but he discovered a fountain of youth ... OK, perhaps not the best metaphor here, but his baseball life has had a second act after all, with 2011 ending up his best year since 2007. Some of this was likely a fluke, as Ortiz posted career-best numbers against left-handed pitching, usually an area of weakness for him, but he murdered fastballs from both left- and right-handed pitchers all year, a resurgence in the bat speed that had deserted him (seemingly for good) back in 2009.
He is primarily a pull hitter and wants the ball right out over the plate; he's improved his ability to lay off the ball away, which he's just going to roll over anyway. He's limited to the designated hitter spot -- seriously, you don't want him on the field -- which limits his value, but if he can maintain this impressive new selectivity, he'll have a few more similarly productive years at the plate.
Buyer Beware: CJ Wilson.
Spoiler [+]
When the Texas Rangers decided to move C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to the rotation prior to the 2010 season, it was met with some skepticism. Such conversions are rarely successful, and while Wilson was an effective reliever, he was far from dominant.
Two years later, the move looks inspired. In two seasons as a starter, Wilson is 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA and almost eight strikeouts per nine innings while helping the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants. As a result, the soon-to-be 31-year-old hits free agency as the most in-demand lefty on the market.
There's no doubt Wilson will help whichever team signs him, but if someone pays close to nine figures to lure him away from the Rangers, they should be aware that a couple of circumstances conspired to make him look better than he is. And if you take him out of Arlington, his numbers will likely take a big hit.
One major factor working in Wilson's favor in Texas has been fantastic defense. In 2010, the Rangers were fourth in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is the rate they converted batted balls into outs. The club added slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre before the 2011 season and moved up to second in defensive efficiency. This plays perfectly into Wilson's hands because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. His ground ball rate of 49.3 percent was 12th in the AL in 2011 and explains why the home-run friendly environment of Rangers Ballpark does not affect him as much as other hurlers.
Wilson's Achilles' heel is a walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings for his career, but with Beltre, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus behind him, that weakness is mitigated by stellar D. In fact, Wilson induced a double play on 22 percent of DP opportunities this year, the third-highest rate in baseball. (Teammate Matt Harrison was second at 26.2 percent.) In other words, the Rangers' defense is uniquely suited to minimize Wilson's weakness. Put him on a team with mediocre infield defense, and suddenly a lot of those 6-4-3s are RBI singles.
Great defense is one reason why Wilson's numbers are not as good as they appear, but the biggest factor is the weak competition he has faced in the AL West. During the last two seasons, Wilson has made 17 starts against the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners, the two lowest-scoring AL offenses in that span. And while the A's have been your run-of-the-mill punchless squad, the Mariners' futility borders on historic.
[h4]Lowest opponents' OPS[/h4]
The top-five pitchers based on lowest opponents' OPS in 2011 (Source: Baseball Prospectus)
[th=""]
Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Opp. OPS
[/th]
Basically, one out of every four starts he has gotten for the Rangers has been against the worst two offenses in the AL; and in 2011, Wilson's opponents combined for an OPS of .728, which was the lowest in baseball for any ERA qualifier (see table). We all saw Wilson struggle mightily in the postseason this year, and front offices across baseball have to be wondering if he has the stuff to succeed against superior competition. Any team that signs Wilson will certainly have its sights set on October, and that team better be aware of how much of his gaudy stat line is built on his domination of second-division clubs.
In Wilson's defense, one thing he does better than pretty much any southpaw in baseball is neutralize left-handed batters. He's held them to a .539 OPS during the last two years -- second only to David Price among full-time starters during that time -- and had a lot of success against clubs that are loaded with lefties. For example, Wilson has a 1.08 ERA in five starts (33 1/3 innings) against the Boston Red Sox during the last two seasons, as their lineup has been anchored by the likes of left-handed hitters such as David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew.
So you can see why Wilson is appealing to the New York Yankees, and his stat line against Boston will surely be cited as a reason for the Yanks to sign him. However, the Yankees do not have a great infield defense (the left side is particularly bad) and Ortiz and Drew might both be gone next year, making the Sox far less left-leaning.
If you're a team with a great infield defense and have a lot of lefty thumpers in your division, Wilson might end up being a good investment. But he owes much of his success to the unique set of circumstances he has encountered in Texas. If maintaining a high level of performance is his ultimate goal -- and the dollar offer is in the same ballpark -- he's better off staying there.
Two years later, the move looks inspired. In two seasons as a starter, Wilson is 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA and almost eight strikeouts per nine innings while helping the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants. As a result, the soon-to-be 31-year-old hits free agency as the most in-demand lefty on the market.
There's no doubt Wilson will help whichever team signs him, but if someone pays close to nine figures to lure him away from the Rangers, they should be aware that a couple of circumstances conspired to make him look better than he is. And if you take him out of Arlington, his numbers will likely take a big hit.
One major factor working in Wilson's favor in Texas has been fantastic defense. In 2010, the Rangers were fourth in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is the rate they converted batted balls into outs. The club added slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre before the 2011 season and moved up to second in defensive efficiency. This plays perfectly into Wilson's hands because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. His ground ball rate of 49.3 percent was 12th in the AL in 2011 and explains why the home-run friendly environment of Rangers Ballpark does not affect him as much as other hurlers.
Wilson's Achilles' heel is a walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings for his career, but with Beltre, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus behind him, that weakness is mitigated by stellar D. In fact, Wilson induced a double play on 22 percent of DP opportunities this year, the third-highest rate in baseball. (Teammate Matt Harrison was second at 26.2 percent.) In other words, the Rangers' defense is uniquely suited to minimize Wilson's weakness. Put him on a team with mediocre infield defense, and suddenly a lot of those 6-4-3s are RBI singles.
Great defense is one reason why Wilson's numbers are not as good as they appear, but the biggest factor is the weak competition he has faced in the AL West. During the last two seasons, Wilson has made 17 starts against the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners, the two lowest-scoring AL offenses in that span. And while the A's have been your run-of-the-mill punchless squad, the Mariners' futility borders on historic.
[h4]Lowest opponents' OPS[/h4]
The top-five pitchers based on lowest opponents' OPS in 2011 (Source: Baseball Prospectus)
| C.J. Wilson | .728 |
| John Lannan | .734 |
| Brad Penny | .735 |
| Rick Porcello | .737 |
| Daniel Hudson | .737 |
Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Opp. OPS
[/th]
Basically, one out of every four starts he has gotten for the Rangers has been against the worst two offenses in the AL; and in 2011, Wilson's opponents combined for an OPS of .728, which was the lowest in baseball for any ERA qualifier (see table). We all saw Wilson struggle mightily in the postseason this year, and front offices across baseball have to be wondering if he has the stuff to succeed against superior competition. Any team that signs Wilson will certainly have its sights set on October, and that team better be aware of how much of his gaudy stat line is built on his domination of second-division clubs.
In Wilson's defense, one thing he does better than pretty much any southpaw in baseball is neutralize left-handed batters. He's held them to a .539 OPS during the last two years -- second only to David Price among full-time starters during that time -- and had a lot of success against clubs that are loaded with lefties. For example, Wilson has a 1.08 ERA in five starts (33 1/3 innings) against the Boston Red Sox during the last two seasons, as their lineup has been anchored by the likes of left-handed hitters such as David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew.
So you can see why Wilson is appealing to the New York Yankees, and his stat line against Boston will surely be cited as a reason for the Yanks to sign him. However, the Yankees do not have a great infield defense (the left side is particularly bad) and Ortiz and Drew might both be gone next year, making the Sox far less left-leaning.
If you're a team with a great infield defense and have a lot of lefty thumpers in your division, Wilson might end up being a good investment. But he owes much of his success to the unique set of circumstances he has encountered in Texas. If maintaining a high level of performance is his ultimate goal -- and the dollar offer is in the same ballpark -- he's better off staying there.
Five Moves That Should Happen.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to free agency, there are some obvious things that are likely to happen this winter -- the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are going to add starting pitching depth, the St. Louis Cardinals are going to try their best to retain Albert Pujols, and a mystery team will appear to help boost the stock of some high-profile player.
However, we're not here to talk about the obvious. Instead, I'd like to propose five outside-the-box transactions that should happen this winter:
[h3]1. The Texas Rangers should sign Prince Fielder[/h3]
While the Rangers made it back to the World Series for the second consecutive year, they did it in spite of what they got from their first baseman in 2011. The .271/.331/.422 mark put up by their collective group ranked just 23rd in the majors, and when the playoffs rolled around, they often found themselves hitting Mitch Moreland ninth in the order. When your first baseman is your worst hitter, you have a problem.
Moreland's lack of production also meant that the middle of the team's order skewed heavily to the right-hand side, as Josh Hamilton was the only regular left-handed bat to hit in a run-producing spot. With Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz lined up to protect Hamilton, the team lacks another thumping left-handed option to keep bullpens honest.
Enter Fielder, who doesn't have an obvious landing spot but wants an enormous contract. He's the best left-handed hitter on the market, and the two-time defending AL champions have the revenue to make him a significant offer. They also have the benefit of DH'ing Fielder down the line if his defense continues to erode, and the offensive-friendly ballpark in Arlington would help him produce career numbers worthy of Cooperstown. Fielder solves a lot of problems for Texas, and it's also the best destination for him in terms of potential production.
[h3]2. The Atlanta Braves should sign Jimmy Rollins[/h3]
The Braves had a playoff-caliber pitching staff, but their offense simply didn't produce enough runs to keep the team from falling apart down the stretch. Led by Alex Gonzalez, the Braves' shortstops combined to post a .267 on-base percentage, and their offensive production at the position ranked 25th in baseball.
Rollins isn't what he was a few years ago, but he's still a massive upgrade over what the Braves have in-house at short. In addition, the Braves have a chance to strengthen themselves while weakening their primary competition in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rollins was worth 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011, and while he's getting older, his underlying skills support similar performance for the next year or two at least. The Braves would receive a 2-3 win upgrade by replacing Gonzalez with Rollins, but perhaps just as importantly, would leave a gaping hole for Philadelphia.
With youngster Freddy Galvis unlikely to be ready for prime time and a free agent market low on talented shortstops, the Phillies would have to scramble to replace Rollins and would not be able to find similar production. Rollins to Atlanta could be as large as a five-win swing in the standings, and the difference between which team wins the division next season.
[h3]3. The Yankees should sign David Ortiz[/h3]
The Red Sox are coming off a brutal finish to the 2011 season. Their general manger left for a new challenge, and Boston has a roster with multiple question marks going forward. The last thing the Red Sox need is to try to replace one of their impact hitters from 2011, but if the Yankees want to kick their rivals when they are down, they should sign Ortiz and make new Boston GM Ben Cherington scramble to fill the void.
Despite all the talk about Ortiz reaching the end of his career, his 153 wRC+ tied for the ninth-best mark in all of baseball last year. Ortiz had arguably a better season than Pujols in 2011, and he will come at a fraction of the cost and commitment. While the Yankees seemingly have an endless number of players who could use some time at DH going forward, Ortiz is a better hitter than all of them and would allow Brian Cashman to use Jesus Montero as trade bait to get the front-line starter he really covets.
Ortiz would be able to take full advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. Most importantly, he would help the Yankees distance themselves from their archrival in the AL East in 2012.
[h3]4. The Tampa Bay Rays should sign Coco Crisp[/h3]
The Rays have turned themselves into a winning organization by finding value in players that aren't as well appreciated as they should be, and Crisp is perhaps the most underrated free agent on the market this winter. During the last three years, he's averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him nearly on par with Carlos Beltran, who will command significantly more money than Crisp. Injury concerns with Crisp are legitimate, and while he might not be an ironman, he's quite productive when he's on the field.
Bringing Crisp in to take over center field gives the team the ability to trade B.J. Upton, who is due another raise in arbitration and is just a year away from free agency. Crisp will likely get a lower salary as a free agent than Upton would in arbitration, so the team could actually save money and use Upton to improve other parts of the roster.
Given his pedigree and athletic ability, there will be a market for Upton's services, and the Rays would almost certainly get more overall value from Crisp in center, the talent Upton would bring back in a trade, and the influx of cash.
[h3]5. The Colorado Rockies should sign C.J. Wilson[/h3]
When the Rockies traded away Ubaldo Jimenez, they created a hole at the front of their rotation that will need to be filled before they can close the gap in the NL West again. Wilson won't come cheap as the best non-Sabathia starting pitcher on the market, but the Rockies should have some money to spend this winter, and Wilson is one of the rare pitchers who could succeed at altitude.
He's cut his teeth in Texas, so he's already shown he can pitch and succeed in ballparks that are built for offense. He's also a ground-ball pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts, thus somewhat mitigating the park effect on his performance. By not depending heavily on a breaking ball, Wilson's repertoire is well-suited to pitching in thin air, as he can cut and sink his fastball in order to get opposing hitters out.
His struggles during the postseason may subdue the total number of dollars Wilson receives this winter, and that can only help the Rockies. Wilson would fit in well at the front of the Rockies' rotation, and with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in their prime, Colorado can't waste time hoping to develop young pitchers internally. Wilson would make the Rockies contenders again, and they should make him an offer he can't refuse.
However, we're not here to talk about the obvious. Instead, I'd like to propose five outside-the-box transactions that should happen this winter:
[h3]1. The Texas Rangers should sign Prince Fielder[/h3]
While the Rangers made it back to the World Series for the second consecutive year, they did it in spite of what they got from their first baseman in 2011. The .271/.331/.422 mark put up by their collective group ranked just 23rd in the majors, and when the playoffs rolled around, they often found themselves hitting Mitch Moreland ninth in the order. When your first baseman is your worst hitter, you have a problem.
Moreland's lack of production also meant that the middle of the team's order skewed heavily to the right-hand side, as Josh Hamilton was the only regular left-handed bat to hit in a run-producing spot. With Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz lined up to protect Hamilton, the team lacks another thumping left-handed option to keep bullpens honest.
Enter Fielder, who doesn't have an obvious landing spot but wants an enormous contract. He's the best left-handed hitter on the market, and the two-time defending AL champions have the revenue to make him a significant offer. They also have the benefit of DH'ing Fielder down the line if his defense continues to erode, and the offensive-friendly ballpark in Arlington would help him produce career numbers worthy of Cooperstown. Fielder solves a lot of problems for Texas, and it's also the best destination for him in terms of potential production.
[h3]2. The Atlanta Braves should sign Jimmy Rollins[/h3]
The Braves had a playoff-caliber pitching staff, but their offense simply didn't produce enough runs to keep the team from falling apart down the stretch. Led by Alex Gonzalez, the Braves' shortstops combined to post a .267 on-base percentage, and their offensive production at the position ranked 25th in baseball.
Rollins isn't what he was a few years ago, but he's still a massive upgrade over what the Braves have in-house at short. In addition, the Braves have a chance to strengthen themselves while weakening their primary competition in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rollins was worth 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011, and while he's getting older, his underlying skills support similar performance for the next year or two at least. The Braves would receive a 2-3 win upgrade by replacing Gonzalez with Rollins, but perhaps just as importantly, would leave a gaping hole for Philadelphia.
With youngster Freddy Galvis unlikely to be ready for prime time and a free agent market low on talented shortstops, the Phillies would have to scramble to replace Rollins and would not be able to find similar production. Rollins to Atlanta could be as large as a five-win swing in the standings, and the difference between which team wins the division next season.
[h3]3. The Yankees should sign David Ortiz[/h3]
The Red Sox are coming off a brutal finish to the 2011 season. Their general manger left for a new challenge, and Boston has a roster with multiple question marks going forward. The last thing the Red Sox need is to try to replace one of their impact hitters from 2011, but if the Yankees want to kick their rivals when they are down, they should sign Ortiz and make new Boston GM Ben Cherington scramble to fill the void.
Despite all the talk about Ortiz reaching the end of his career, his 153 wRC+ tied for the ninth-best mark in all of baseball last year. Ortiz had arguably a better season than Pujols in 2011, and he will come at a fraction of the cost and commitment. While the Yankees seemingly have an endless number of players who could use some time at DH going forward, Ortiz is a better hitter than all of them and would allow Brian Cashman to use Jesus Montero as trade bait to get the front-line starter he really covets.
Ortiz would be able to take full advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. Most importantly, he would help the Yankees distance themselves from their archrival in the AL East in 2012.
[h3]4. The Tampa Bay Rays should sign Coco Crisp[/h3]
The Rays have turned themselves into a winning organization by finding value in players that aren't as well appreciated as they should be, and Crisp is perhaps the most underrated free agent on the market this winter. During the last three years, he's averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him nearly on par with Carlos Beltran, who will command significantly more money than Crisp. Injury concerns with Crisp are legitimate, and while he might not be an ironman, he's quite productive when he's on the field.
Bringing Crisp in to take over center field gives the team the ability to trade B.J. Upton, who is due another raise in arbitration and is just a year away from free agency. Crisp will likely get a lower salary as a free agent than Upton would in arbitration, so the team could actually save money and use Upton to improve other parts of the roster.
Given his pedigree and athletic ability, there will be a market for Upton's services, and the Rays would almost certainly get more overall value from Crisp in center, the talent Upton would bring back in a trade, and the influx of cash.
[h3]5. The Colorado Rockies should sign C.J. Wilson[/h3]
When the Rockies traded away Ubaldo Jimenez, they created a hole at the front of their rotation that will need to be filled before they can close the gap in the NL West again. Wilson won't come cheap as the best non-Sabathia starting pitcher on the market, but the Rockies should have some money to spend this winter, and Wilson is one of the rare pitchers who could succeed at altitude.
He's cut his teeth in Texas, so he's already shown he can pitch and succeed in ballparks that are built for offense. He's also a ground-ball pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts, thus somewhat mitigating the park effect on his performance. By not depending heavily on a breaking ball, Wilson's repertoire is well-suited to pitching in thin air, as he can cut and sink his fastball in order to get opposing hitters out.
His struggles during the postseason may subdue the total number of dollars Wilson receives this winter, and that can only help the Rockies. Wilson would fit in well at the front of the Rockies' rotation, and with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in their prime, Colorado can't waste time hoping to develop young pitchers internally. Wilson would make the Rockies contenders again, and they should make him an offer he can't refuse.
Orioles stalled by a perception problem.
Spoiler [+]
The truth is that Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos is much more of a lawyer than a baseball owner, and he spends almost all of his days involved in lawsuits. And the truth is that in Buck Showalter's perfect world, he'd love to work with some really smart people who build a great team with which the Orioles can thrive.
But the Orioles have a significant perception problem now, slowing down a team already viewed within the industry as a one that is all horse-and-buggy in a wireless world. Think about what we just saw in the last week: The Orioles -- a team with a rich history, a landmark baseball park and a fan base starved for success and dying for its next summer of contention -- were twice turned down by assistant general managers.
It would be one thing if an established general manager like Theo Epstein had rejected their overtures; that would be more understandable from the Orioles' point of view. But last week, Jerry DiPoto -- who had never been a full-fledged general manager -- essentially withdrew from consideration for the Orioles' GM job when he was their top choice. Then, a couple of days ago, Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava rejected the Orioles' offer to be their GM.
LaCava has said all the right things since turning down the job, speaking of how much he loves being with the Blue Jays. But the saying goes that there are only 30 Major League Baseball GM jobs in the world, and if you're given a first chance to take a GM spot, you have to grab it no matter the complications. But the Orioles' situation is viewed as so difficult that twice assistant GMs rejected the opportunity take over in Baltimore.
There are other highly regarded assistant GMs who have not yet been interviewed by the Orioles who feel the same way, some telling friends that if Baltimore called, they would not be interested.
The concerns outsiders have about the Orioles is that Angelos interferes in the day-to-day business, and that Showalter is too powerful for the next general manager to walk into the front office and have the kind of influence he needs. At Angelos' request, Showalter was part of the group that conducted interviews of prospective GMs. "Maybe the best thing Angelos can do now," said a highly-ranked executive on Wednesday, "is to tell Buck he needs him to take over baseball operations and then hire a manager."
The perception within the industry -- fair or not -- is that whoever takes the Orioles' GM job will have less power than any GM within the sport.
That's not something that Angelos wants, or Showalter for that matter. But the perception is a major problem.
And regardless of how or why they are in this position, the Orioles will never get better unless they find a way to be more efficient, more aggressive, and more progressive. Every winter, it seems, they are the last team to sign players, and because they are left to comb over scraps, they don't get better. The same dynamic has been in play in the GM search: The Orioles have known for months that Andy MacPhail would not stay on as general manager, and yet here they are, on the first day when free agents can sign, and they are basically starting from scratch and trying to find a GM.
The New York Yankees have the most resources and have greatly improved their scouting and player development in the last five years. Despite the Boston's September flop, they are regarded among the most dangerous organizations in the sport. The Tampa Bay Rays have been regarded as the best and the brightest and are loaded with talent. Alex Anthopoulos has greatly impressed his peers in his first two years running the Blue Jays.
For the Orioles, though, there is a perception problem, which is scaring away the kind of folks that could turn around the franchise.
LaCava sees the promise in the Blue Jays, which is why he says he turned down the Baltimore job.
A former Orioles executive will interview with Baltimore.
The Orioles' reputation has taken a hit, writes Kevin Cowherd.
Whoever the next Orioles' GM is will have to wade into the ocean of free agents, as Dan Connolly writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Theo Epstein flew to Florida to fire Mike Quade, and then he immediately called Ryne Sandberg to let him know he will not be considered for the Chicago Cubs managerial opening. Dale Sveum and Mike Maddux are among those candidates being considered, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
Terry Francona is the right guy for the St. Louis Cardinals job. St. Louis will start interviewing candidates today.
Dale Sveum interviewed with the Red Sox and says he'd take a more disciplined approach, as Tim Britton writes. Sveum stated his case, as Scott Lauber writes.
Before Theo Epstein left for the Cubs, he and his assistant Ben Cherington had many conversations about managerial candidates. Now Cherington has replaced Epstein and both are looking for managers, so they could be working from very similar lists of candidates.
And Sveum is a known quantity to both Epstein and Cherington; he would seem to be in an excellent position to get his first real shot at managing in the big leagues.
• Peter O'Malley is among those interested in buying the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The sale of the Dodgers creates uncertainty. Lew Wolff says he's not interested in buying the Dodgers. It's time for Bud Selig to do right by the Dodgers, writes Vincent Bonsignore.
Bud Selig should be toasted, writes Bill Dwyre. Major League Baseball stood its ground and eventually the totality of Frank McCourt's financial situation caved in on him, for that, Selig deserves credit. But it should not be forgotten, either, that McCourt was chosen to own the Dodgers despite serious questions about his financial strength.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Arizona Diamondbacks re-signed John McDonald.
2. The San Francisco Giants need to re-sign Carlos Beltran, writes John Shea.
3. The Oakland Athletics haven't made offers to any of their free agents.
4. Josh Byrnes is studying front office candidates, writes Bill Center.
5. The Seattle Mariners are taking a look at the market, writes Larry Larue.
6. The Detroit Tigers could have a dull winter.
7. The Minnesota Twins hired a former Twin as a hitting coach, writes Joe Christensen.
8. The Twins need to fill their needs through free agency, writes John Shipley.
9. Darren O'Day was claimed on waivers.
10. The Texas Rangers made some cuts.
11. The Washington Nationals are closing in on a deal with Chien-Ming Wang.
12. Wrote here the other day that Grady Sizemore could be a great fit with the Nationals; his agent tells Adam Kilgore he's open to anything.
13. The Philadelphia Phillies have many unanswered questions, writes Matt Gelb.
14. The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to begin their offseason shopping, writes Bill Brink.
15. Within this story, there is word that the Red Sox and Cubs have received another week to work out the Theo Epstein compensation issue.
16. The New York Mets have their eyes on Jose Reyes.
17. The Yankees are looking to be smart shoppers.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jose Bautista was among the Silver Slugger winners.
• Nick Markakis feels like he's getting healthy.
• The Florida Marlins want to ensure smooth traffic and parking at their new ballpark.
• Chip Bailey wonders if a Houston Astros official is getting a free pass.
• The mayor of Chicago hasn't changed his mind on how to revamp Wrigley Field.
• Bryan Stow wrote his own name.
And today will be better than yesterday.
But the Orioles have a significant perception problem now, slowing down a team already viewed within the industry as a one that is all horse-and-buggy in a wireless world. Think about what we just saw in the last week: The Orioles -- a team with a rich history, a landmark baseball park and a fan base starved for success and dying for its next summer of contention -- were twice turned down by assistant general managers.
It would be one thing if an established general manager like Theo Epstein had rejected their overtures; that would be more understandable from the Orioles' point of view. But last week, Jerry DiPoto -- who had never been a full-fledged general manager -- essentially withdrew from consideration for the Orioles' GM job when he was their top choice. Then, a couple of days ago, Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava rejected the Orioles' offer to be their GM.
LaCava has said all the right things since turning down the job, speaking of how much he loves being with the Blue Jays. But the saying goes that there are only 30 Major League Baseball GM jobs in the world, and if you're given a first chance to take a GM spot, you have to grab it no matter the complications. But the Orioles' situation is viewed as so difficult that twice assistant GMs rejected the opportunity take over in Baltimore.
There are other highly regarded assistant GMs who have not yet been interviewed by the Orioles who feel the same way, some telling friends that if Baltimore called, they would not be interested.
The concerns outsiders have about the Orioles is that Angelos interferes in the day-to-day business, and that Showalter is too powerful for the next general manager to walk into the front office and have the kind of influence he needs. At Angelos' request, Showalter was part of the group that conducted interviews of prospective GMs. "Maybe the best thing Angelos can do now," said a highly-ranked executive on Wednesday, "is to tell Buck he needs him to take over baseball operations and then hire a manager."
The perception within the industry -- fair or not -- is that whoever takes the Orioles' GM job will have less power than any GM within the sport.
That's not something that Angelos wants, or Showalter for that matter. But the perception is a major problem.
And regardless of how or why they are in this position, the Orioles will never get better unless they find a way to be more efficient, more aggressive, and more progressive. Every winter, it seems, they are the last team to sign players, and because they are left to comb over scraps, they don't get better. The same dynamic has been in play in the GM search: The Orioles have known for months that Andy MacPhail would not stay on as general manager, and yet here they are, on the first day when free agents can sign, and they are basically starting from scratch and trying to find a GM.
The New York Yankees have the most resources and have greatly improved their scouting and player development in the last five years. Despite the Boston's September flop, they are regarded among the most dangerous organizations in the sport. The Tampa Bay Rays have been regarded as the best and the brightest and are loaded with talent. Alex Anthopoulos has greatly impressed his peers in his first two years running the Blue Jays.
For the Orioles, though, there is a perception problem, which is scaring away the kind of folks that could turn around the franchise.
LaCava sees the promise in the Blue Jays, which is why he says he turned down the Baltimore job.
A former Orioles executive will interview with Baltimore.
The Orioles' reputation has taken a hit, writes Kevin Cowherd.
Whoever the next Orioles' GM is will have to wade into the ocean of free agents, as Dan Connolly writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Theo Epstein flew to Florida to fire Mike Quade, and then he immediately called Ryne Sandberg to let him know he will not be considered for the Chicago Cubs managerial opening. Dale Sveum and Mike Maddux are among those candidates being considered, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
Terry Francona is the right guy for the St. Louis Cardinals job. St. Louis will start interviewing candidates today.
Dale Sveum interviewed with the Red Sox and says he'd take a more disciplined approach, as Tim Britton writes. Sveum stated his case, as Scott Lauber writes.
Before Theo Epstein left for the Cubs, he and his assistant Ben Cherington had many conversations about managerial candidates. Now Cherington has replaced Epstein and both are looking for managers, so they could be working from very similar lists of candidates.
And Sveum is a known quantity to both Epstein and Cherington; he would seem to be in an excellent position to get his first real shot at managing in the big leagues.
• Peter O'Malley is among those interested in buying the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The sale of the Dodgers creates uncertainty. Lew Wolff says he's not interested in buying the Dodgers. It's time for Bud Selig to do right by the Dodgers, writes Vincent Bonsignore.
Bud Selig should be toasted, writes Bill Dwyre. Major League Baseball stood its ground and eventually the totality of Frank McCourt's financial situation caved in on him, for that, Selig deserves credit. But it should not be forgotten, either, that McCourt was chosen to own the Dodgers despite serious questions about his financial strength.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Arizona Diamondbacks re-signed John McDonald.
2. The San Francisco Giants need to re-sign Carlos Beltran, writes John Shea.
3. The Oakland Athletics haven't made offers to any of their free agents.
4. Josh Byrnes is studying front office candidates, writes Bill Center.
5. The Seattle Mariners are taking a look at the market, writes Larry Larue.
6. The Detroit Tigers could have a dull winter.
7. The Minnesota Twins hired a former Twin as a hitting coach, writes Joe Christensen.
8. The Twins need to fill their needs through free agency, writes John Shipley.
9. Darren O'Day was claimed on waivers.
10. The Texas Rangers made some cuts.
11. The Washington Nationals are closing in on a deal with Chien-Ming Wang.
12. Wrote here the other day that Grady Sizemore could be a great fit with the Nationals; his agent tells Adam Kilgore he's open to anything.
13. The Philadelphia Phillies have many unanswered questions, writes Matt Gelb.
14. The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to begin their offseason shopping, writes Bill Brink.
15. Within this story, there is word that the Red Sox and Cubs have received another week to work out the Theo Epstein compensation issue.
16. The New York Mets have their eyes on Jose Reyes.
17. The Yankees are looking to be smart shoppers.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jose Bautista was among the Silver Slugger winners.
• Nick Markakis feels like he's getting healthy.
• The Florida Marlins want to ensure smooth traffic and parking at their new ballpark.
• Chip Bailey wonders if a Houston Astros official is getting a free pass.
• The mayor of Chicago hasn't changed his mind on how to revamp Wrigley Field.
• Bryan Stow wrote his own name.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Keith Law's top 50 free agents.
#31-50.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ronny Cedeno[/h4][h5]#5 SS
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
Cedeno is a solid-average defender at shortstop who can hit enough off-speed stuff -- he's consistently behind above-average fastballs -- to play every day, given how shallow the MLB shortstop pool is right now. There's not much in the bat other than some ability to make contact, as he doesn't walk and can't hit for power with a hands-heavy approach, and I'd love to know how any player could be caught stealing five times in seven attempts without the first-base coach trying to nail his foot to the bag.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Ramon Hernandez[/h4][h5]#55 C
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
There's little catching available on the free-agent market this winter, and saying Hernandez is the best of the lot is the faintest of praise. He's caught a total of 228 games over the past three seasons, and after a strong first half in 2011 (that was out of line with his career anyway), he wilted in just 38 games after the break, posting a .220/.287/.305 (BA/OBP/SLG) line before he was relegated to part-time duty in favor of heir apparent Devin Mesoraco. He's an above-average throwing catcher and fringy receiver who lives off mistakes and fastballs left over the plate. The state of catching across MLB is bad enough that he's still worth a one-year deal, even at his advanced age.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Bartolo Colon[/h4][h5]#40 SP
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Before he got hurt (again) in mid-June, Colon was a revelation for the Yankees, with a 3.10 ERA in 78 innings, allowing just 18 walks and punching out 72. After his DL stint, Colon was a different guy, posting a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings, during which batters hit .301/.343/.494 off him, including 12 home runs. He lost some velocity around the injury, especially the ability to reach back and get 94-95 mph when he needed it, and given the controversy around the treatment he received prior to the season, he might find a chilly reception this winter.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Bruce Chen[/h4][h5]#52 SP
Kansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Chen has remade himself into a finesse lefty. He is not quite the new Jamie Moyer but is along those lines as a guy who succeeds with a below-average fastball by pitching backward and locating his off-speed stuff well. He will work at 83-86 mph but sinks the ball, rarely coming at hitters in the upper half of the zone (where he would get pounded like a cube steak), and throws a hard (relative to his fastball) slider with good tilt that is very tough on left-handed hitters. His changeup doesn't fade, so he throws it at the outer half against right-handed hitters, and it's effective because of the change of pace rather than any real action or deception.
He did have a fortunate schedule this year; only seven of his 25 starts came against teams with winning records, and he cleaned up in the other 18 outings with a 2.69 ERA and just six homers allowed in 117 innings. I wouldn't touch him in the American League East, but in the National League, he could carve out a nice career as a back-end lefty who mixes in enough long starts around the occasional disaster to be worth two wins a year.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jeff Francis[/h4][h5]#26 SP
Kansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Thanks to excellent control, Francis survived (barely) pitching with a grade-35 fastball in 2011. He is not a ground ball guy and certainly isn't missing many bats at 84-85 mph, and the only thing that kept his ERA below 5.00 was three starts against National League lineups. I could see taking a low-base, one-year gamble on Francis in a big NL park, with the hope that another year removed from shoulder surgery sees him regain a little arm strength, but in the wrong environment, he will be terribly homer-prone and won't stick in a rotation.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Freddy Garcia[/h4][h5]#36 SP
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Garcia's repertoire of slop seemed like an awful fit for hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the team's American League East opponents, but Garcia compensated by throwing relatively few fastballs, avoiding walks and just getting kind of lucky all around. Strip out the luck, and you have a fringe-average AL starter who can miss a few bats with a big-tumbling split-fingered fastball and fringy breaking stuff. Given his history of injuries and career-worst velocity this year, I'm not optimistic here, but his 2011 season was good enough to merit another one-year deal.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Andruw Jones[/h4][h5]#18 LF
New York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
Jones hasn't been a regular in ages, but has been steadily showing his value in a platoon role as a lefty-masher and as an above-average defender in an outfield corner. He works the count well and tries to get a fastball he can drive, which works when there's a southpaw on the mound. Jones has hit .274/.379/.547 against left-handed pitching over the past two years in 248 plate appearances, and even in 2009, when he didn't really hit anyone well, he at least managed a .367 OBP against southpaws. He can handle right or left field, although sadly his days in center are long gone. Give him a left-handed-hitting platoon partner, and you could have an above-average combination in left or right.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Rafael Furcal[/h4][h5]#15 SS
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Furcal still owns one of the best infield arms I've ever seen; in a parallel universe, he's on the back nine of a long career as a shutdown closer. He might be the biggest upside play in free agency this year, since he wasn't healthy for much of the season and even his line with St. Louis (.255/.316/.41 doesn't reflect how he'll likely hit if he can stay on the field for 120 games in 2012. Defensive metrics have Furcal below average at short this past year, but again, that looks like a function of lack of health rather than a real decline in skills. On a one-year deal, he could be a huge bargain.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Cody Ross[/h4][h5]#13 LF
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
Ross' value would have been higher after his fluky finish to 2010, but a full year in San Francisco has hurt him, as his power was stifled by the ballpark. He's an average to above-average defender in either corner who can handle center field on an emergency basis (except in a huge park such as the Giants') and provide 20-homer power over a full season. It's also somewhat promising that in an otherwise down year, Ross set a career high in walks and walk rate.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RP
San Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
Bell seems to want to stay in San Diego rather than test the market, and with good reason: His style of pitching isn't going to work in a lot of environments. He throws hard, 92-95 mph, but it's straight and up in the zone, resulting in a lot of fly balls and line drives. The Padres play so many games a year in pitchers' parks that he's thrived there over the past five years, but I'd be very wary of him in a smaller stadium or in the American League East.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jason Kubel[/h4][h5]#16 RF
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
A healthy Kubel is probably a two-win player as long as he's not asked to spend too much time in the field, since he is not a great fielder and has a habit of getting hurt. His walk rate dipped to a career low 8 percent this year, but he has 20-25 homer potential that would work nicely in a park that's kind to left-handed pull power hitters, something Target Field is not.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Joe Nathan[/h4][h5]#36 RP
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Nathan missed all of 2010 after Tommy John surgery, and he wasn't 100 percent in 2011, as his breaking stuff wasn't sharp and he was down just more than a full mile an hour on his fastball. His control was intact, but reduced command and velocity meant hitters squared up his stuff more easily. However, he could regain the lost velocity or rediscover his command. Buyers here have a solid baseline performance with several ways he could get better.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Jim Thome[/h4][h5]#25 DH
Cleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
He's a left-handed-hitting DH who can mash right-handed pitching but probably could use a caddie against lefties. Thome still gets on base and has above-average power, but at his age, he is going to remain injury-prone and could reach the cliff (over which we find the abyss of offensive irrelevance) at any point.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Francisco Cordero[/h4][h5]#48 RP
Cincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
Don't let the silly save stat fool you -- Cordero's contract was a loser for Cincinnati, as the value he provided wasn't close to the absurd salary the Reds paid him. Yes, he has the "closer" label, but he also has a diminishing ability to miss bats with a fastball that is down a full grade since he signed with the Reds. He could carve out a few more years as a setup man/middle guy who pitches more with his off-speed stuff, as he can't blow the fastball by hitters like he used to do.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Kyuji Fujikawa[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Hanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Fujikawa isn't a free agent but there's a good chance he'll be posted, as he has one year left before true free agency. The timing would be good, as Fujikawa is coming off a year in which he struck out 80 of the 179 batters he faced. Fujikawa is up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around 92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he commands it well; he'll also show a junk curveball that he probably should shelve if he comes over. He might be homer-prone with the straight fastball, but the splitter is a potential difference-maker.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Frank Francisco[/h4][h5]#50 RP
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
He isn't reliable enough to be his team's high-leverage arm, but he throws enough strikes and misses enough bats with his fastball-splitter combo to make up for his erratic command and related tendency to give up hard contact. One red flag is that the Jays rarely used him on back-to-back days, and when they did, he got pounded for a .353/.405/.618 line across 37 plate appearances (small sample size caveat applies).
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]J.D. Drew[/h4][h5]#7 RF
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
In the first three years of his five-year deal with Boston, Drew posted a .276/.390/.485 line with above-average defense in right field. At 35, he's not likely to be that player again, but if healthy, he'll be a lot better than his abysmal 2011 line, as a disciplined hitter who will have the ability to turn on a mistake once his shoulder is fully healed. Unfortunately, Drew does get hurt a lot, meaning the smart deal here would be a contract with easily attainable incentives for games played.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2011 STATS
Iwakuma chose not to sign with Oakland last winter after the A's agreed to a posting fee, but he had a very disappointing 2011 and probably won't fare any better as a true free agent this fall. A shoulder injury had his velocity down to 84-86 mph, although he was back up to 87-90 by the end of the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he's shown in the past. If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he could be someone's fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and tends to keep the ball down.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Matt Murton[/h4][h5]#9 OF
Hanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Murton hasn't decided yet whether to come back after two big years in Japan; he's at least a solid fourth outfielder over here who rakes against left-handed pitchers and is still playable against right-handers. Murton doesn't have the power to profile as an above-average everyday guy -- even in Japan, his main skill has been hitting for average with modest power and surprisingly few walks -- and in the U.S., he hit too many balls on the ground. Assuming the plate discipline is intact, I could see an OBP in the high .300s from him with enough doubles to make him at least a second-division starter.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Chien-Ming Wang[/h4][h5]#40 SP
Washington Nationals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Wang didn't look sharp in his first few outings back from all his injuries, but by the end of the year, he looked good enough to profile as a back-end starter. His sinker will be more 88-90 mph than its old 90-93, but the sink is still good enough to keep the ball on the ground, and both his splitter and slider were getting sharper as the season ended. I'd be very wary of any pitcher with his history of shoulder injuries, but a full season of the version of Wang we saw the final weeks of September would be worth two wins above replacement.
#11-30.
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th]
[h4]Edwin Jackson[/h4][h5]#22 SP
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
Jackson might be the biggest heartbreaker for general managers and pitching coaches around the game; it's hard to pass on a guy who can easily hold 97 mph for seven or eight innings. But outside of the first half of 2009 with the Tigers, he hasn't produced results to match the top-of-the-rotation stuff in more than 1,000 big league innings.
Working with Don Cooper in Chicago, Jackson threw more sliders and kept the ball down in the zone better than he had previously. But he didn't hold those trends after the trade to St. Louis, and going forward, he's likely to be what we thought he was: a hard thrower who tries to work in the upper half of the zone too much and gets punished for it with extra-base hits. On the plus side, he's been durable, with 31 or more starts in each of the past five seasons, so there's value here for the middle of a rotation, but not in the first two spots of a good one.
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[h4]Javier Vazquez[/h4][h5]#23 SP
Florida Marlins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Vazquez's stuff finally ticked up over the course of 2011 after an outlier 2010 season in which his average fastball velocity was the worst of his career. In the second half of this year, he was throwing as hard as he had before he was traded to the Yankees, with no apparent reason for the fluctuations. Vazquez works primarily with the fastball, throwing strikes and getting ahead with it, and complements the heater with a slow curveball that looks like it shouldn't miss bats but does. He also features an above-average changeup he busts out against lefties.
Vazquez has a strong record of health outside of the lost 2010 season; since 1999, last year is the only one in which he didn't make 32 starts or throw at least 190 innings, and that was due to ineffectiveness rather than a serious injury. He might choose to retire this offseason, but if not, any team looking for a durable starter for the middle or back of its rotation should try to coax him into another year.
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[h4]Hiroki Kuroda[/h4][h5]#18 SP
Los Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year before the closed period ended, meaning he didn't wait to negotiate with other clubs, and it's possible Kuroda would pitch only for the Dodgers or head back to Japan to pitch in the NPB. He doesn't have a true out pitch but throws a ton of strikes and, until 2011, was a moderate ground ball pitcher who kept the ball in the park. This year, however, he had the lowest ground ball rate and highest line-drive rate of his career (per FanGraphs), as his sinker didn't have its usual sink. He has a soft splitter he uses against left-handed hitters and a mid-80s downward-breaking slider against righties, and hasn't lost any significant velocity. But when a soon-to-be-37-year-old pitcher suddenly sees his line-drive rate jump by 15 percent to 20 percent over his career average, that's a big red flag.
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[h4]Carlos Pena[/h4][h5]#22 1B
Chicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
It wasn't the triumphant comeback season Pena probably hoped for, but he did re-establish some value for himself with a moderately productive year in which he showed his two major skills -- taking a walk and hitting for above-average power -- were still intact against right-handed pitching. Pena hit .255/.388/.504 (BA/OBP/SLG) against righties this year but was useless against southpaws, hitting .133/.260/.333 with 46 strikeouts in 146 plate appearances. It was the second year in a row he couldn't hit left-handers.
The pitch recognition he shows against right-handers is key, as he's clearly lost some bat speed -- you can put good velocity by him more easily than you could two or three years ago. He's an above-average defender and hard worker who earns raves for his makeup, but at the end of the day, he is only as good as his ability to make contact and is probably best suited to platoon duty at first base with a right-handed-hitting partner.
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[h4]Michael Cuddyer[/h4][h5]#5 RF
Minnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
Cuddyer is a man without a position who doesn't hit enough quality pitching to profile as a regular anywhere he can play, although he's likely to get an everyday job in an outfield corner or as a DH. Since he first became a semi-regular player in 2004, Cuddyer has hit .273/.344/.453, very close to his 2011 line, and he's been only substantially better than that twice in those eight seasons, most recently in 2009 when his power spiked but OBP was still .342.
His power is almost entirely dead pull, with a strong front side and good hip rotation, but in 2011, he was behind decent fastballs and teed off instead on changeups, which might be a fluke but could be an early harbinger of his decline phase. The biggest problem is that he is a liability in left or right field and is best suited to DH duty, but has never had a season that would justify playing him there every day, which should leave a number of teams looking at him as a part-time player rather than a full-timer.
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[h4]Ryan Madson[/h4][h5]#46 RP
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors right now. He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. Not only do hitters swing and miss at it, but they swing too early on it and end up way out in front. The cutter is just a show-me pitch to remind hitters even a fastball might not be straight, but it doesn't cut enough to be a major weapon for him.
He has thrown just 113 innings the past two years around non-arm injuries but was good for 159 the previous two years, and I'd like to see him stretched out more in some of his outings since he holds his stuff well, has plus control and shows no platoon split. I don't love high-end free-agent relievers because their contracts tend to be too long, but Madson is an exception.
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[h4]Kelly Johnson[/h4][h5]#2 2B
Toronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
Johnson has become an all-or-nothing player over the course of his career, with wild swings in his batting average on balls in play that result in part from trouble maintaining a consistent swing. What saves Johnson is that he works deep counts and has above-average power so that even in a down year such as 2011, he's contributing something on offense.
He has a sound swing when he's right, but he tends to lose confidence quickly and overcompensate, especially in two-strike counts. And since he is such a patient hitter, he sees a lot of those deep counts. Once he's behind, he's more likely to chase off-speed stuff. He is fringy at best at second base but would be above average to plus if he returned to left field, a position where, in good years, his bat profiles fine. He's a great high-risk/high-reward candidate on a one-year deal or even a two-year deal with a lower base pay and some incentives.
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[h4]Jonathan Papelbon[/h4][h5]#58 RP
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
In 2008-09, Papelbon had become something of a caricature of himself on the mound, throwing fastball after fastball, getting hit and showing no understanding of why he was getting hit. (Hint: It had to do with all the fastballs.) In 2010, he brought back his old out pitch, a hard-tumbling splitter, and it has helped him keep hitters from sitting on the straight, if hard (mid-90s), four-seamer.
Papelbon had some shoulder issues earlier in his career but has maintained a standard closer's workload of 60 to 70 innings a year for the past four seasons and should be good for a few more like that. But it speaks volumes that in 2011, one of his best seasons in the majors, Papelbon was worth only about three wins above a replacement pitcher (per FanGraphs). Between that and the risk of long-term relief contracts, he's about as clear a lock to be overpaid this winter as any free agent.
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[h4]Wei-Ying Chen[/h4][h5]#21 SP
Chunichi Dragons[/h5]
2011 STATS
Chen was born in Taiwan but has pitched in Japan's NPB for several years. He's had good results, but a decline in his stuff this year probably will limit his market.
He had been sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn't have its usual bite. By the end of the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper, so MLB teams' interest might depend on when in the year they saw him. He has a decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty specialist, although it's not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus control, with 31 walks in 164 2/3 innings this year for Chunichi, but after striking out more than 21 percent of the hitters he faced in his first three full seasons in NPB, his strikeout rate dropped to 14 percent this year. He is only 25 and offers more upside than the typical NPB refugee, both due to age and the chance for the slider to become a consistently plus pitch.
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[h4]Josh Willingham[/h4][h5]#16 LF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
I'd love to tell you Willingham's drop in average and OBP was just a function of moving to a brutal ballpark for hitters, but his home/road splits for 2011 don't support that story. In fact, he was much better at home (.874 OPS) than on the road (.750 OPS). Instead we're looking more at an oft-injured hitter who didn't like the tougher pitching of the American League and is probably entering his decline phase.
Willingham has always been a patient hitter but swung through more fastballs in the zone this year and did little damage against off-speed stuff, a dangerous combination for a hitter entering his age-33 season. He is a well-below-average defender in left and is only going to get worse there as he ages. I'd take a flier on him as a bench bat and emergency starter in left or at DH, but not for more than a year, given all the warning signs in his 2011 season.
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[h4]David DeJesus[/h4][h5]#12 RF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
DeJesus cost himself a fair amount of money with a terrible walk year that can't be blamed solely on Oakland's unfriendly home park because he wasn't good on the road in 2011, either. He always had a solid approach in Kansas City with strong contact rates and the ability to square up a decent fastball, but in 2011, pitchers began to beat him in the strike zone, especially with velocity. He would swing through good fastballs or pop them up and didn't square up enough of the pitches a major league hitter should hit. His offensive decline was most noticeable with a lefty on the mound, as he hit .174/.227/.231 against southpaws, way out of line with his prior performances against them.
He's very good in an outfield corner -- better left than right because of his fringy arm -- but his speed has never translated well in center and I think he'll be below average there as he ages. He turns 32 in December and probably is entering his decline phase, but I'd take a shot at him as a platoon bat in left field who could play up a little if the bat speed and platoon split issues were just one-year aberrations.
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[h4]Roy Oswalt[/h4][h5]#44 SP
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
It's not clear how much Oswalt will be able to pitch given his back injuries, but if he's healthy enough to make 20 to 25 starts, he could still have value as a league-average to slightly above-average starter. The injury robbed him of some arm speed, reflected in both his fastball velocity and the sharpness of his off-speed stuff, and if he's not healthy enough to establish his fastball, he'll have to change his approach and work more as a finesse pitcher. His mid-80s slider is short, almost cutter-like, while his slow curveball got slower as his arm did, and even with good downward break, it's not a great weapon if it's down in the 60s.
His presence in this spot is more a reflection of his command and feel for pitching; if he's sitting at 89-90 mph, he has the off-speed stuff and the knowledge to remake himself and pitch backward, and there's always the chance he gets healthy enough to sit at 92-93 mph again and be a solid No. 2 starter.
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[h4]Erik Bedard[/h4][h5]#23 SP
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
Bedard re-established a little value for himself in a 2011 season in which he was effective around his usual trips to the DL, showing he can still miss bats but probably will never have the durability or control to be more than a back-end starter.
He works mostly fastball-curveball now, sitting right around 90 mph with a little late life on the fastball, while the curve is really his out pitch, still effective in the lower 70s due to a very sharp break that seems to accelerate as it reaches the hitter. On nights when he can locate the fastball enough to get ahead, he'll put hitters away with the breaking ball; on nights when he can't locate the fastball, he doesn't have much of a Plan B. And he gets hurt a lot. But lefties who can miss bats, even intermittently, are worth a shot on incentive-laden deals, which is what Bedard probably is looking at for the foreseeable future.
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[h4]Paul Maholm[/h4][h5]#28 SP
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
Maholm's season ended Aug. 20 when the Pirates placed him on the DL with a left shoulder strain, so his market is going to be a function of team doctors' reviews of his records and what happens if and when he takes a physical.
He posted the best ERA of his career in 2011, but it wasn't actually a great year for him, just a lucky one on balls allowed into play ... and Maholm allows a lot of them. He does throw strikes, and tends to keep the ball down and thus in the park despite a below-average fastball that was the slowest of his career in 2011, which likely was a function of whatever is going on in his shoulder. When healthy, he'll sit around 87-89 mph with a slow curveball and a slider that isn't sharp but runs away from left-handed hitters just enough to be effective. However, the slider was too flat this year and his change was too close in velocity to his fastball. The upside here is that you might get a left-handed starter with good control for the third or fourth spot in your rotation on a cheap, incentive-heavy deal. The downside here is that the dip in his velocity this past season could be a harbinger of disaster, or he might have something seriously wrong in his shoulder and miss even more time.
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[h4]Grady Sizemore[/h4][h5]#24 CF
Cleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
Across multiple injuries, Sizemore has been a nonfactor at the plate the past two years in Cleveland, amassing just 335 plate appearances over that time with a .220/.280/.379 line. And while he was better in 2009, he hasn't been a truly above-average player since 2008. He shouldn't be in center anymore, as injuries to both knees have hurt his range, and he's more likely to stay healthy covering less ground in left or just DHing. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt, as he was a very patient hitter in his healthy years, and there's an upside play as a left fielder who can get on base and might hit 20 homers. However, he needs to be close to 100 percent to produce.
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[h4]Coco Crisp[/h4][h5]#4 CF
Oakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
Crisp is yet another position player coming off a down year as he heads into free agency. It was season that started badly when he was charged with driving under the influence during spring training, and it never got better. Crisp can hit a fastball and, not coincidentally, saw fewer fastballs in 2011 than he had in any previous year as a starter; word gets around, and until he shows he can hit off-speed stuff, he'll see a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups. Once an above-average defender in center, Crisp has lost a step and is closer to average at this point. His value has largely been in his glove, as he is not a great on-base guy and has below-average power, so he's a potential regular only as long as he can stay in center. At 32, he'll probably be able to do that for only another two or three years.
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[h4]Johnny Damon[/h4][h5]#22 DH
Tampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2011 STATS
Damon still has enough speed and pop to have value to a club in at least a part-time role, but he probably belongs in a DH spot and his bat isn't what it used to be. What concerns me about Damon is that 2011 was his worst year in terms of approach, with his lowest full-season walk total since 1997 while his strikeout rate remained where it's been over the past two years. He's running deep counts, but they're not ending as well for him as they used to, and he's not capitalizing on getting ahead in the count as he once did. I don't think Damon is done, but I wouldn't go beyond one year given the red flags here and his below-average defense in left field.
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[h4]Francisco Rodriguez[/h4][h5]#57 RP
Milwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
K-Rod is no longer an overrated closer living off his past laurels, but rather a capable setup man. He sits in the 89-92 mph range with his fastball but keeps it down more effectively than he used to. He misses bats with an action changeup in the low 80s that drops out of sight, meaning hitters who were sitting fastball will be lucky to get a tiny piece of the pitch. The wildness that crept into his game in his last years with the Angels appears to be gone, and the once-devastating slider is more of a downer curveball in the upper 70s that he probably could relegate to show-me status. Three years ago, he looked like fool's gold in free agency, and he was. This time around, he is not as high profile but looks like he's embarking on a second act.
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[h4]Ryan Doumit[/h4][h5]#41 C
Pittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
He can't catch -- let's just get that out of the way now. He can't handle the position and can't stay healthy when he tries. But Doumit can hit a little, with a .280/.337/.454 composite line over the past five years, and could make a fine, cheap DH or emergency LF/1B for someone, although he's not as selective as he'd need to be to profile as more than an average regular. He's a switch-hitter who's stronger from the left side but capable enough either way that he doesn't need a platoon partner; his only real weakness is against pitchers who can change speeds effectively. He's been fragile enough that I'd just let him DH and see whether I could get 140 games out of him, but I imagine there will be interest in him as a first baseman (no thanks) or in left or right field (maybe, but I doubt it).
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[h4]Aaron Hill[/h4][h5]#2 2B
Arizona Diamondbacks[/h5]
2011 STATS
Hill seemed to like facing National League pitching a lot more than he liked American League pitching, hitting .315/.386/.492 after the trade from Toronto to Arizona and reaching base in 29 of 33 games with the Diamondbacks. It is a tiny sample and won't hold unless Hill continues to stay short to the ball, rather than trying to pull everything out of the park as he has since his 36-homer outburst in 2009. He's an above-average defender at second who can still run and plays with a ton of energy, making him well worth the gamble to see whether the change of scenery really did restart his bat.
#1-10.
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[h4]Prince Fielder[/h4][h5]#28 1B
Milwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Fielder reaches the market at an unusually young age, entering his age-28 season, meaning that the team that signs him likely will get all of his peak years plus a few early decline years, as opposed to the typical free-agent hitter who signs a big deal just as he's entering his decline phase.
He offers an impressive package of plus power, patience and ability to hit, while playing a capable first base, and is likely to hold that offensive value for the majority of that next contract, even if it reaches eight years. For a big guy with wide hips, Fielder is able to turn on the inside pitch surprisingly well, a testament to both his bat (and hand) speed and the fact that he's pretty athletic for his size. He has a fairly persistent platoon split that isn't likely to go away entirely; his improvements against left-handed pitching in 2011 -- particularly in making contact -- probably represent his ceiling in that area, and he still doesn't like the breaking ball moving away from him. And although some are concerned about his girth, it should be noted that he has averaged 160 games played per season since 2006.
The risks are obvious -- that he regresses against left-handed pitchers, that he doesn't continue to work to stay in shape, that the fact that a third of his walks in 2011 were intentional is causing us to overstate his patience -- but they are more than mitigated by the chance to get a premium bat who is productive and durable for all his prime years.
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[h4]Albert Pujols[/h4][h5]#5 1B
St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
If their ages were closer, Pujols would be the obvious choice over Fielder for this list, but Pujols, listed at age 32 for the 2012 season, probably is going to spend more time in his decline phase on this next contract than he is producing at his customary levels.
Pujols' 2011 season started slowly, crafting an absurd narrative about the pressure of the contract year getting to him. Meanwhile, the pressure of the postseason hasn't fazed him one bit, has it? From June 1 until the end of the regular season, including a September in which every game mattered for the team, he hit a very Pujolsian .318/.383/.613 (BA/OBP/SLG).
Pujols' swing is simple and direct, with outstanding hip rotation to help him generate power, and he has one of the strongest batting eyes in the game. His first 10 years rank with the first decade of any player in the history of the game. Unlike Fielder, Pujols doesn't show a serious platoon split and is a plus defensive first baseman. But, also unlike Fielder, Pujols has had injury trouble, including an elbow injury that required surgery after the 2008 season and tendinitis in the other elbow last year, although he's missed significant time only for a fractured arm this season. And Pujols is at least 32 heading into 2012, an age at which most hitters are beginning their decline phase ... and that's if we ignore the persistent yet unproven rumors that Pujols is older than his listed age would indicate; if his real age differed from his listed age, it would dramatically affect his expected output on the contract.
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[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4][h5]#11 SP
Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters[/h5]
2011 STATS
Darvish has been the object of MLB teams' affection dating back to the 2009 World Baseball Classic, for his combination of plus stuff, incredible performances and size. On that year's Japanese WBC roster, he was a good 4 inches taller than all but one of the other pitchers, so he's built more like the American scouting ideal. Darvish, who is half-Japanese and half-Iranian, needs to come to MLB if he wants to be challenged further after he punched out 276 in 232 innings in Japan this season while walking just 30 unintentionally.
Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings.
He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings.
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[h4]Jose Reyes[/h4][h5]#7 SS
New York Mets[/h5]
2011 STATS
After two injury-plagued years, Reyes got mostly healthy in time for a free-agent push, posting career bests in all rate stats, including the all-encompassing wOBA. A switch-hitter, Reyes has a different swing on each side of the plate but tends to get similar results. Hitting right-handed, he drops his hands and rotates his hips more, while left-handed, he is shorter and more direct to the ball but seems to square it up more consistently. He has had trouble with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but manages to spoil enough of them that he can get back into fastball counts and do more damage.
Reyes would be first on this list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available.
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[h4]Jimmy Rollins[/h4][h5]#11 SS
Philadelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
Rollins is the poor man's Jose Reyes in this market, a capable shortstop who has struggled with leg injuries (in this case, calf and groin), but who didn't have the same big year Reyes did to boost him heading into free agency. Rollins also doesn't have Reyes' plate discipline or ability to recognize breaking stuff, but he can get around fine on a good fastball and uses his legs to create more hits and (outside of 2011, at least) add value on the bases.
He remains a slightly above-average defensive shortstop but his range has been reduced by his leg problems the past two years, and at 33, he was unlikely to maintain his defensive value much longer even if he stayed healthy. He can fill the shortstop hole for a team in need for two or three years, but betting on him for longer than that is exceedingly risky given his age, health and recent performance.
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[h4]Mark Buehrle[/h4][h5]#56 SP
Chicago White Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
Buehrle is overrated by those who want to discuss his potential Hall of Fame case (I'm not on board), but he is underrated because of his lack of premium performances. His best attribute is his ability to log innings -- he throws with about as little effort as anyone this side of Livan Hernandez and has plus control, letting him work deep into games.
Buehrle has thrown more than 200 innings and made at least 30 starts in 11 straight seasons, and the last year in which he walked more than 50 batters unintentionally was 2003. In addition, he's led the American League in hits allowed in four of the past seven seasons, a function of that same durability, but also of his lack of any out pitch and a fringy-at-best fastball. His fastball sits in the mid-80s; however, he pairs it with a big-breaking cutter that looks more like a slider but is closer in velocity to his fastball than an ordinary slider would be, as well as an upper-70s changeup with downward action and good arm speed. He hides the ball well behind his body. In front of a bad defense, Buehrle could be a disaster, but in the right environment, he's a solid innings eater in the middle of a rotation who provides unusual reliability.
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[h4]Aramis Ramirez[/h4][h5]#16 3B
Chicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
Ramirez's peak years are now behind him, making him a risky player in a market thin with safe power threats beyond its top two options. He's a severe pull hitter who likes the ball middle-in or just tailing in toward his bat, and while he has the strength to drive the ball the other way, he rarely stays back enough to do so.
Pitchers can attack him with velocity, especially away where he can't try to start his bat early and pull it, but he hasn't yet experienced the big loss of bat speed you'd expect given his age and body type. That will come in the next few years, of course, as Ramirez (like all of us) faces that penalty for a crime he hasn't committed, one that already has turned him from an indifferent defender at third into an outright bad one. Moved to first base, he could turn in a few productive years as a second-tier power hitter who makes enough contact to get on base at a reasonable clip. He's also one of the most likely players in this market to go all Adam Dunn on his new employers.
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[h4]C.J. Wilson[/h4][h5]#36 SP
Texas Rangers[/h5]
2011 STATS
Wilson's up-and-down October didn't help his free-agent case, but I doubt it hurt it, either, as he'd thrown a career-high 223 innings during the regular season in just his second season as a starter after four-plus years in the 'pen. That said, it might have opened a few eyes to Wilson's true status as a No. 2 starter rather than an ace who'll miss enough bats to succeed in any environment.
His slider is his most effective pitch, a low-80s offering with good tilt that hitters hit into the ground when they don't swing over it, and he'll throw it down and away to a left-handed hitter or throw it at the back foot of a right-handed one. His weakness is fringy fastball command. He throws strikes with his heater but fails to locate it within the zone. The good news is he cut his walk rate in 2011 over 2010. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003 but spent several years in relief building up arm strength, so he might be a safer bet to stay healthy than most 31-year-old starters because he has less mileage on his current elbow. I just don't see him anchoring a staff unless it's one with a stellar infield behind him.
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[h4]Carlos Beltran[/h4][h5]#15 RF
San Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
His MVP-level performances of 2006 and 2008 are long gone, but Beltran did re-establish himself as an above-average regular in 2011 by staying mostly healthy and showing he hasn't lost any bat speed, although he had to move to right field and probably is best suited to left at this point due to his diminished range. He still can turn on a good fastball and showed he can hit from both sides of the plate, but his baserunning, once a huge part of the value he provided as a player because he was so rarely caught stealing, is no longer a factor. Many teams can and will do worse at the DH spot, but others might be willing to accept the loss of five or so runs of value on defense and the added injury risk by playing him in left, especially since Beltran has a clause in his contract that prevents the Giants from offering him arbitration, which means the team that signs him won't need to give up a draft pick as compensation.
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[h4]David Ortiz[/h4][h5]#34 DH
Boston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
I thought Ortiz was cooked more than a year ago, but he discovered a fountain of youth ... OK, perhaps not the best metaphor here, but his baseball life has had a second act after all, with 2011 ending up his best year since 2007. Some of this was likely a fluke, as Ortiz posted career-best numbers against left-handed pitching, usually an area of weakness for him, but he murdered fastballs from both left- and right-handed pitchers all year, a resurgence in the bat speed that had deserted him (seemingly for good) back in 2009.
He is primarily a pull hitter and wants the ball right out over the plate; he's improved his ability to lay off the ball away, which he's just going to roll over anyway. He's limited to the designated hitter spot -- seriously, you don't want him on the field -- which limits his value, but if he can maintain this impressive new selectivity, he'll have a few more similarly productive years at the plate.
Buyer Beware: CJ Wilson.
Five Moves That Should Happen.
Orioles stalled by a perception problem.
#31-50.
Spoiler [+]
| 31 | Ronny Cedeno |
| Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ronny Cedeno[/h4][h5]#5 SSPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM128
- HR2
- RBI32
- R43
- OBP.297
- AVG.249
Cedeno is a solid-average defender at shortstop who can hit enough off-speed stuff -- he's consistently behind above-average fastballs -- to play every day, given how shallow the MLB shortstop pool is right now. There's not much in the bat other than some ability to make contact, as he doesn't walk and can't hit for power with a hands-heavy approach, and I'd love to know how any player could be caught stealing five times in seven attempts without the first-base coach trying to nail his foot to the bag.
| 32 | Ramon Hernandez |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: C '11 team: Cincinnati Reds | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ramon Hernandez[/h4][h5]#55 CCincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM91
- HR12
- RBI36
- R28
- OBP.341
- AVG.282
There's little catching available on the free-agent market this winter, and saying Hernandez is the best of the lot is the faintest of praise. He's caught a total of 228 games over the past three seasons, and after a strong first half in 2011 (that was out of line with his career anyway), he wilted in just 38 games after the break, posting a .220/.287/.305 (BA/OBP/SLG) line before he was relegated to part-time duty in favor of heir apparent Devin Mesoraco. He's an above-average throwing catcher and fringy receiver who lives off mistakes and fastballs left over the plate. The state of catching across MLB is bad enough that he's still worth a one-year deal, even at his advanced age.
| 33 | Bartolo Colon |
| Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Bartolo Colon[/h4][h5]#40 SPNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM29
- W8
- L10
- BB40
- K135
- ERA4.00
Before he got hurt (again) in mid-June, Colon was a revelation for the Yankees, with a 3.10 ERA in 78 innings, allowing just 18 walks and punching out 72. After his DL stint, Colon was a different guy, posting a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings, during which batters hit .301/.343/.494 off him, including 12 home runs. He lost some velocity around the injury, especially the ability to reach back and get 94-95 mph when he needed it, and given the controversy around the treatment he received prior to the season, he might find a chilly reception this winter.
| 34 | Bruce Chen |
| Age: 34 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Kansas City Royals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Bruce Chen[/h4][h5]#52 SPKansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM25
- W12
- L8
- BB50
- K97
- ERA3.77
Chen has remade himself into a finesse lefty. He is not quite the new Jamie Moyer but is along those lines as a guy who succeeds with a below-average fastball by pitching backward and locating his off-speed stuff well. He will work at 83-86 mph but sinks the ball, rarely coming at hitters in the upper half of the zone (where he would get pounded like a cube steak), and throws a hard (relative to his fastball) slider with good tilt that is very tough on left-handed hitters. His changeup doesn't fade, so he throws it at the outer half against right-handed hitters, and it's effective because of the change of pace rather than any real action or deception.
He did have a fortunate schedule this year; only seven of his 25 starts came against teams with winning records, and he cleaned up in the other 18 outings with a 2.69 ERA and just six homers allowed in 117 innings. I wouldn't touch him in the American League East, but in the National League, he could carve out a nice career as a back-end lefty who mixes in enough long starts around the occasional disaster to be worth two wins a year.
| 35 | Jeff Francis |
| Age: 30 Bats: LThrows: L Position: SP '11 team: Kansas City Royals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jeff Francis[/h4][h5]#26 SPKansas City Royals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM31
- W6
- L16
- BB39
- K91
- ERA4.82
Thanks to excellent control, Francis survived (barely) pitching with a grade-35 fastball in 2011. He is not a ground ball guy and certainly isn't missing many bats at 84-85 mph, and the only thing that kept his ERA below 5.00 was three starts against National League lineups. I could see taking a low-base, one-year gamble on Francis in a big NL park, with the hope that another year removed from shoulder surgery sees him regain a little arm strength, but in the wrong environment, he will be terribly homer-prone and won't stick in a rotation.
| 36 | Freddy Garcia |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '10 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Freddy Garcia[/h4][h5]#36 SPNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM26
- W12
- L8
- BB45
- K96
- ERA3.62
Garcia's repertoire of slop seemed like an awful fit for hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the team's American League East opponents, but Garcia compensated by throwing relatively few fastballs, avoiding walks and just getting kind of lucky all around. Strip out the luck, and you have a fringe-average AL starter who can miss a few bats with a big-tumbling split-fingered fastball and fringy breaking stuff. Given his history of injuries and career-worst velocity this year, I'm not optimistic here, but his 2011 season was good enough to merit another one-year deal.
| 37 | Andruw Jones |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: New York Yankees | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Andruw Jones[/h4][h5]#18 LFNew York Yankees[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM77
- HR13
- RBI33
- R27
- OBP.356
- AVG.247
Jones hasn't been a regular in ages, but has been steadily showing his value in a platoon role as a lefty-masher and as an above-average defender in an outfield corner. He works the count well and tries to get a fastball he can drive, which works when there's a southpaw on the mound. Jones has hit .274/.379/.547 against left-handed pitching over the past two years in 248 plate appearances, and even in 2009, when he didn't really hit anyone well, he at least managed a .367 OBP against southpaws. He can handle right or left field, although sadly his days in center are long gone. Give him a left-handed-hitting platoon partner, and you could have an above-average combination in left or right.
| 38 | Rafael Furcal |
| Age: 34 Bats: Both Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Rafael Furcal[/h4][h5]#15 SSSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM87
- HR8
- RBI28
- R44
- OBP.298
- AVG.231
Furcal still owns one of the best infield arms I've ever seen; in a parallel universe, he's on the back nine of a long career as a shutdown closer. He might be the biggest upside play in free agency this year, since he wasn't healthy for much of the season and even his line with St. Louis (.255/.316/.41
doesn't reflect how he'll likely hit if he can stay on the field for 120 games in 2012. Defensive metrics have Furcal below average at short this past year, but again, that looks like a function of lack of health rather than a real decline in skills. On a one-year deal, he could be a huge bargain.| 39 | Cody Ross |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: San Francisco Giants | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Cody Ross[/h4][h5]#13 LFSan Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM121
- HR14
- RBI52
- R54
- OBP.325
- AVG.240
Ross' value would have been higher after his fluky finish to 2010, but a full year in San Francisco has hurt him, as his power was stifled by the ballpark. He's an average to above-average defender in either corner who can handle center field on an emergency basis (except in a huge park such as the Giants') and provide 20-homer power over a full season. It's also somewhat promising that in an otherwise down year, Ross set a career high in walks and walk rate.
| 40 | Heath Bell |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: San Diego Padres | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RPSan Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM64
- W3
- L4
- BB21
- K51
- ERA2.44
Bell seems to want to stay in San Diego rather than test the market, and with good reason: His style of pitching isn't going to work in a lot of environments. He throws hard, 92-95 mph, but it's straight and up in the zone, resulting in a lot of fly balls and line drives. The Padres play so many games a year in pitchers' parks that he's thrived there over the past five years, but I'd be very wary of him in a smaller stadium or in the American League East.
| 41 | Jason Kubel |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jason Kubel[/h4][h5]#16 RFMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM99
- HR12
- RBI58
- R37
- OBP.332
- AVG.273
A healthy Kubel is probably a two-win player as long as he's not asked to spend too much time in the field, since he is not a great fielder and has a habit of getting hurt. His walk rate dipped to a career low 8 percent this year, but he has 20-25 homer potential that would work nicely in a park that's kind to left-handed pull power hitters, something Target Field is not.
| 42 | Joe Nathan |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: Starting pitcher '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Joe Nathan[/h4][h5]#36 RPMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM48
- W2
- L1
- BB14
- K43
- ERA4.84
Nathan missed all of 2010 after Tommy John surgery, and he wasn't 100 percent in 2011, as his breaking stuff wasn't sharp and he was down just more than a full mile an hour on his fastball. His control was intact, but reduced command and velocity meant hitters squared up his stuff more easily. However, he could regain the lost velocity or rediscover his command. Buyers here have a solid baseline performance with several ways he could get better.
| 43 | Jim Thome |
| Age: 41 Bats: L Throws: R Position: DH '11 team: Cleveland Indians | Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jim Thome[/h4][h5]#25 DHCleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM93
- HR15
- RBI50
- R32
- OBP.361
- AVG.256
He's a left-handed-hitting DH who can mash right-handed pitching but probably could use a caddie against lefties. Thome still gets on base and has above-average power, but at his age, he is going to remain injury-prone and could reach the cliff (over which we find the abyss of offensive irrelevance) at any point.
| 44 | Francisco Cordero |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Cincinnati Reds |
[h4]Francisco Cordero[/h4][h5]#48 RPCincinnati Reds[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM68
- W5
- L3
- BB22
- K42
- ERA2.45
Don't let the silly save stat fool you -- Cordero's contract was a loser for Cincinnati, as the value he provided wasn't close to the absurd salary the Reds paid him. Yes, he has the "closer" label, but he also has a diminishing ability to miss bats with a fastball that is down a full grade since he signed with the Reds. He could carve out a few more years as a setup man/middle guy who pitches more with his off-speed stuff, as he can't blow the fastball by hitters like he used to do.
| 45 | Kyuji Fujikawa |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Hanshin Tigers |
[h4]Kyuji Fujikawa[/h4][h5]#21 SPHanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM56
- W3
- L3
- BB13
- K80
- ERA1.24
Fujikawa isn't a free agent but there's a good chance he'll be posted, as he has one year left before true free agency. The timing would be good, as Fujikawa is coming off a year in which he struck out 80 of the 179 batters he faced. Fujikawa is up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around 92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he commands it well; he'll also show a junk curveball that he probably should shelve if he comes over. He might be homer-prone with the straight fastball, but the splitter is a potential difference-maker.
| 46 | Frank Francisco |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Toronto Blue Jays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Frank Francisco[/h4][h5]#50 RPToronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM54
- W1
- L4
- BB18
- K53
- ERA3.55
He isn't reliable enough to be his team's high-leverage arm, but he throws enough strikes and misses enough bats with his fastball-splitter combo to make up for his erratic command and related tendency to give up hard contact. One red flag is that the Jays rarely used him on back-to-back days, and when they did, he got pounded for a .353/.405/.618 line across 37 plate appearances (small sample size caveat applies).
| 47 | J.D. Drew |
| Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]J.D. Drew[/h4][h5]#7 RFBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM81
- HR4
- RBI22
- R23
- OBP.315
- AVG.222
In the first three years of his five-year deal with Boston, Drew posted a .276/.390/.485 line with above-average defense in right field. At 35, he's not likely to be that player again, but if healthy, he'll be a lot better than his abysmal 2011 line, as a disciplined hitter who will have the ability to turn on a mistake once his shoulder is fully healed. Unfortunately, Drew does get hurt a lot, meaning the smart deal here would be a contract with easily attainable incentives for games played.
| 48 | Hisashi Iwakuma |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles |
[h4]Hisashi Iwakuma[/h4][h5]#21 SPTohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM17
- W6
- L7
- BB19
- K90
- ERA2.42
Iwakuma chose not to sign with Oakland last winter after the A's agreed to a posting fee, but he had a very disappointing 2011 and probably won't fare any better as a true free agent this fall. A shoulder injury had his velocity down to 84-86 mph, although he was back up to 87-90 by the end of the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he's shown in the past. If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he could be someone's fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and tends to keep the ball down.
| 49 | Matt Murton |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Hanshin Tigers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Matt Murton[/h4][h5]#9 OFHanshin Tigers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR13
- RBI60
- R66
- OBP.339
- AVG.311
Murton hasn't decided yet whether to come back after two big years in Japan; he's at least a solid fourth outfielder over here who rakes against left-handed pitchers and is still playable against right-handers. Murton doesn't have the power to profile as an above-average everyday guy -- even in Japan, his main skill has been hitting for average with modest power and surprisingly few walks -- and in the U.S., he hit too many balls on the ground. Assuming the plate discipline is intact, I could see an OBP in the high .300s from him with enough doubles to make him at least a second-division starter.
| 50 | Chien-Ming Wang |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Washington Nationals |
[h4]Chien-Ming Wang[/h4][h5]#40 SPWashington Nationals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM11
- W4
- L3
- BB13
- K25
- ERA4.04
Wang didn't look sharp in his first few outings back from all his injuries, but by the end of the year, he looked good enough to profile as a back-end starter. His sinker will be more 88-90 mph than its old 90-93, but the sink is still good enough to keep the ball on the ground, and both his splitter and slider were getting sharper as the season ended. I'd be very wary of any pitcher with his history of shoulder injuries, but a full season of the version of Wang we saw the final weeks of September would be worth two wins above replacement.
#11-30.
Spoiler [+]
| 11 | Edwin Jackson |
| Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago White Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Edwin Jackson[/h4][h5]#22 SPSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W12
- L9
- BB62
- K148
- ERA3.79
Jackson might be the biggest heartbreaker for general managers and pitching coaches around the game; it's hard to pass on a guy who can easily hold 97 mph for seven or eight innings. But outside of the first half of 2009 with the Tigers, he hasn't produced results to match the top-of-the-rotation stuff in more than 1,000 big league innings.
Working with Don Cooper in Chicago, Jackson threw more sliders and kept the ball down in the zone better than he had previously. But he didn't hold those trends after the trade to St. Louis, and going forward, he's likely to be what we thought he was: a hard thrower who tries to work in the upper half of the zone too much and gets punished for it with extra-base hits. On the plus side, he's been durable, with 31 or more starts in each of the past five seasons, so there's value here for the middle of a rotation, but not in the first two spots of a good one.
| 12 | Javier Vazquez |
| Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RHP '11 team: Florida Marlins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Javier Vazquez[/h4][h5]#23 SPFlorida Marlins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W13
- L11
- BB50
- K162
- ERA3.69
Vazquez's stuff finally ticked up over the course of 2011 after an outlier 2010 season in which his average fastball velocity was the worst of his career. In the second half of this year, he was throwing as hard as he had before he was traded to the Yankees, with no apparent reason for the fluctuations. Vazquez works primarily with the fastball, throwing strikes and getting ahead with it, and complements the heater with a slow curveball that looks like it shouldn't miss bats but does. He also features an above-average changeup he busts out against lefties.
Vazquez has a strong record of health outside of the lost 2010 season; since 1999, last year is the only one in which he didn't make 32 starts or throw at least 190 innings, and that was due to ineffectiveness rather than a serious injury. He might choose to retire this offseason, but if not, any team looking for a durable starter for the middle or back of its rotation should try to coax him into another year.
| 13 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Los Angeles Dodgers |
[h4]Hiroki Kuroda[/h4][h5]#18 SPLos Angeles Dodgers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM32
- W13
- L16
- BB49
- K161
- ERA3.07
Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year before the closed period ended, meaning he didn't wait to negotiate with other clubs, and it's possible Kuroda would pitch only for the Dodgers or head back to Japan to pitch in the NPB. He doesn't have a true out pitch but throws a ton of strikes and, until 2011, was a moderate ground ball pitcher who kept the ball in the park. This year, however, he had the lowest ground ball rate and highest line-drive rate of his career (per FanGraphs), as his sinker didn't have its usual sink. He has a soft splitter he uses against left-handed hitters and a mid-80s downward-breaking slider against righties, and hasn't lost any significant velocity. But when a soon-to-be-37-year-old pitcher suddenly sees his line-drive rate jump by 15 percent to 20 percent over his career average, that's a big red flag.
| 14 | Carlos Pena |
| Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L Position: 1B '11 team: Chicago Cubs | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Carlos Pena[/h4][h5]#22 1BChicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM153
- HR28
- RBI80
- R72
- OBP.357
- AVG.225
It wasn't the triumphant comeback season Pena probably hoped for, but he did re-establish some value for himself with a moderately productive year in which he showed his two major skills -- taking a walk and hitting for above-average power -- were still intact against right-handed pitching. Pena hit .255/.388/.504 (BA/OBP/SLG) against righties this year but was useless against southpaws, hitting .133/.260/.333 with 46 strikeouts in 146 plate appearances. It was the second year in a row he couldn't hit left-handers.
The pitch recognition he shows against right-handers is key, as he's clearly lost some bat speed -- you can put good velocity by him more easily than you could two or three years ago. He's an above-average defender and hard worker who earns raves for his makeup, but at the end of the day, he is only as good as his ability to make contact and is probably best suited to platoon duty at first base with a right-handed-hitting partner.
| 15 | Michael Cuddyer |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RF '11 team: Minnesota Twins | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Michael Cuddyer[/h4][h5]#5 RFMinnesota Twins[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM139
- HR20
- RBI70
- R70
- OBP.346
- AVG.284
Cuddyer is a man without a position who doesn't hit enough quality pitching to profile as a regular anywhere he can play, although he's likely to get an everyday job in an outfield corner or as a DH. Since he first became a semi-regular player in 2004, Cuddyer has hit .273/.344/.453, very close to his 2011 line, and he's been only substantially better than that twice in those eight seasons, most recently in 2009 when his power spiked but OBP was still .342.
His power is almost entirely dead pull, with a strong front side and good hip rotation, but in 2011, he was behind decent fastballs and teed off instead on changeups, which might be a fluke but could be an early harbinger of his decline phase. The biggest problem is that he is a liability in left or right field and is best suited to DH duty, but has never had a season that would justify playing him there every day, which should leave a number of teams looking at him as a part-time player rather than a full-timer.
| 16 | Ryan Madson |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ryan Madson[/h4][h5]#46 RPPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM62
- W4
- L2
- BB16
- K62
- ERA2.37
Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors right now. He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. Not only do hitters swing and miss at it, but they swing too early on it and end up way out in front. The cutter is just a show-me pitch to remind hitters even a fastball might not be straight, but it doesn't cut enough to be a major weapon for him.
He has thrown just 113 innings the past two years around non-arm injuries but was good for 159 the previous two years, and I'd like to see him stretched out more in some of his outings since he holds his stuff well, has plus control and shows no platoon split. I don't love high-end free-agent relievers because their contracts tend to be too long, but Madson is an exception.
| 17 | Kelly Johnson |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: R Position: 2B '11 team: Toronto Blue Jays | Arizona Diamondbacks | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Kelly Johnson[/h4][h5]#2 2BToronto Blue Jays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM147
- HR21
- RBI58
- R75
- OBP.304
- AVG.222
Johnson has become an all-or-nothing player over the course of his career, with wild swings in his batting average on balls in play that result in part from trouble maintaining a consistent swing. What saves Johnson is that he works deep counts and has above-average power so that even in a down year such as 2011, he's contributing something on offense.
He has a sound swing when he's right, but he tends to lose confidence quickly and overcompensate, especially in two-strike counts. And since he is such a patient hitter, he sees a lot of those deep counts. Once he's behind, he's more likely to chase off-speed stuff. He is fringy at best at second base but would be above average to plus if he returned to left field, a position where, in good years, his bat profiles fine. He's a great high-risk/high-reward candidate on a one-year deal or even a two-year deal with a lower base pay and some incentives.
| 18 | Jonathan Papelbon |
| Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RHP '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jonathan Papelbon[/h4][h5]#58 RPBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM63
- W4
- L1
- BB10
- K87
- ERA2.94
In 2008-09, Papelbon had become something of a caricature of himself on the mound, throwing fastball after fastball, getting hit and showing no understanding of why he was getting hit. (Hint: It had to do with all the fastballs.) In 2010, he brought back his old out pitch, a hard-tumbling splitter, and it has helped him keep hitters from sitting on the straight, if hard (mid-90s), four-seamer.
Papelbon had some shoulder issues earlier in his career but has maintained a standard closer's workload of 60 to 70 innings a year for the past four seasons and should be good for a few more like that. But it speaks volumes that in 2011, one of his best seasons in the majors, Papelbon was worth only about three wins above a replacement pitcher (per FanGraphs). Between that and the risk of long-term relief contracts, he's about as clear a lock to be overpaid this winter as any free agent.
| 19 | Wei-Ying Chen |
| Age: 26 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Chunichi Dragons | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Wei-Ying Chen[/h4][h5]#21 SPChunichi Dragons[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM25
- W8
- L10
- BB31
- K94
- ERA2.68
Chen was born in Taiwan but has pitched in Japan's NPB for several years. He's had good results, but a decline in his stuff this year probably will limit his market.
He had been sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-92 early in 2011, and his slider didn't have its usual bite. By the end of the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper, so MLB teams' interest might depend on when in the year they saw him. He has a decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty specialist, although it's not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus control, with 31 walks in 164 2/3 innings this year for Chunichi, but after striking out more than 21 percent of the hitters he faced in his first three full seasons in NPB, his strikeout rate dropped to 14 percent this year. He is only 25 and offers more upside than the typical NPB refugee, both due to age and the chance for the slider to become a consistently plus pitch.
| 20 | Josh Willingham |
| Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Oakland Athletics | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Josh Willingham[/h4][h5]#16 LFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM136
- HR29
- RBI98
- R69
- OBP.332
- AVG.246
I'd love to tell you Willingham's drop in average and OBP was just a function of moving to a brutal ballpark for hitters, but his home/road splits for 2011 don't support that story. In fact, he was much better at home (.874 OPS) than on the road (.750 OPS). Instead we're looking more at an oft-injured hitter who didn't like the tougher pitching of the American League and is probably entering his decline phase.
Willingham has always been a patient hitter but swung through more fastballs in the zone this year and did little damage against off-speed stuff, a dangerous combination for a hitter entering his age-33 season. He is a well-below-average defender in left and is only going to get worse there as he ages. I'd take a flier on him as a bench bat and emergency starter in left or at DH, but not for more than a year, given all the warning signs in his 2011 season.
| 21 | David DeJesus |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SSC '11 team: Oakland Athletics | Status: Terms: |
[h4]David DeJesus[/h4][h5]#12 RFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM131
- HR10
- RBI46
- R60
- OBP.323
- AVG.240
DeJesus cost himself a fair amount of money with a terrible walk year that can't be blamed solely on Oakland's unfriendly home park because he wasn't good on the road in 2011, either. He always had a solid approach in Kansas City with strong contact rates and the ability to square up a decent fastball, but in 2011, pitchers began to beat him in the strike zone, especially with velocity. He would swing through good fastballs or pop them up and didn't square up enough of the pitches a major league hitter should hit. His offensive decline was most noticeable with a lefty on the mound, as he hit .174/.227/.231 against southpaws, way out of line with his prior performances against them.
He's very good in an outfield corner -- better left than right because of his fringy arm -- but his speed has never translated well in center and I think he'll be below average there as he ages. He turns 32 in December and probably is entering his decline phase, but I'd take a shot at him as a platoon bat in left field who could play up a little if the bat speed and platoon split issues were just one-year aberrations.
| 22 | Roy Oswalt |
| Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Roy Oswalt[/h4][h5]#44 SPPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM23
- W9
- L10
- BB33
- K93
- ERA3.69
It's not clear how much Oswalt will be able to pitch given his back injuries, but if he's healthy enough to make 20 to 25 starts, he could still have value as a league-average to slightly above-average starter. The injury robbed him of some arm speed, reflected in both his fastball velocity and the sharpness of his off-speed stuff, and if he's not healthy enough to establish his fastball, he'll have to change his approach and work more as a finesse pitcher. His mid-80s slider is short, almost cutter-like, while his slow curveball got slower as his arm did, and even with good downward break, it's not a great weapon if it's down in the 60s.
His presence in this spot is more a reflection of his command and feel for pitching; if he's sitting at 89-90 mph, he has the off-speed stuff and the knowledge to remake himself and pitch backward, and there's always the chance he gets healthy enough to sit at 92-93 mph again and be a solid No. 2 starter.
| 23 | Erik Bedard |
| Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Erik Bedard[/h4][h5]#23 SPBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM24
- W5
- L9
- BB48
- K125
- ERA3.62
Bedard re-established a little value for himself in a 2011 season in which he was effective around his usual trips to the DL, showing he can still miss bats but probably will never have the durability or control to be more than a back-end starter.
He works mostly fastball-curveball now, sitting right around 90 mph with a little late life on the fastball, while the curve is really his out pitch, still effective in the lower 70s due to a very sharp break that seems to accelerate as it reaches the hitter. On nights when he can locate the fastball enough to get ahead, he'll put hitters away with the breaking ball; on nights when he can't locate the fastball, he doesn't have much of a Plan B. And he gets hurt a lot. But lefties who can miss bats, even intermittently, are worth a shot on incentive-laden deals, which is what Bedard probably is looking at for the foreseeable future.
| 24 | Paul Maholm |
| Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Paul Maholm[/h4][h5]#28 SPPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM26
- W6
- L14
- BB50
- K97
- ERA3.66
Maholm's season ended Aug. 20 when the Pirates placed him on the DL with a left shoulder strain, so his market is going to be a function of team doctors' reviews of his records and what happens if and when he takes a physical.
He posted the best ERA of his career in 2011, but it wasn't actually a great year for him, just a lucky one on balls allowed into play ... and Maholm allows a lot of them. He does throw strikes, and tends to keep the ball down and thus in the park despite a below-average fastball that was the slowest of his career in 2011, which likely was a function of whatever is going on in his shoulder. When healthy, he'll sit around 87-89 mph with a slow curveball and a slider that isn't sharp but runs away from left-handed hitters just enough to be effective. However, the slider was too flat this year and his change was too close in velocity to his fastball. The upside here is that you might get a left-handed starter with good control for the third or fourth spot in your rotation on a cheap, incentive-heavy deal. The downside here is that the dip in his velocity this past season could be a harbinger of disaster, or he might have something seriously wrong in his shoulder and miss even more time.
| 25 | Grady Sizemore |
| Age: 29 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Grady Sizemore[/h4][h5]#24 CFCleveland Indians[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM71
- HR10
- RBI32
- R34
- OBP.285
- AVG.224
Across multiple injuries, Sizemore has been a nonfactor at the plate the past two years in Cleveland, amassing just 335 plate appearances over that time with a .220/.280/.379 line. And while he was better in 2009, he hasn't been a truly above-average player since 2008. He shouldn't be in center anymore, as injuries to both knees have hurt his range, and he's more likely to stay healthy covering less ground in left or just DHing. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt, as he was a very patient hitter in his healthy years, and there's an upside play as a left fielder who can get on base and might hit 20 homers. However, he needs to be close to 100 percent to produce.
| 26 | Coco Crisp |
| Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: Oakland Athletics |
[h4]Coco Crisp[/h4][h5]#4 CFOakland Athletics[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM136
- HR8
- RBI54
- R69
- OBP.314
- AVG.264
Crisp is yet another position player coming off a down year as he heads into free agency. It was season that started badly when he was charged with driving under the influence during spring training, and it never got better. Crisp can hit a fastball and, not coincidentally, saw fewer fastballs in 2011 than he had in any previous year as a starter; word gets around, and until he shows he can hit off-speed stuff, he'll see a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups. Once an above-average defender in center, Crisp has lost a step and is closer to average at this point. His value has largely been in his glove, as he is not a great on-base guy and has below-average power, so he's a potential regular only as long as he can stay in center. At 32, he'll probably be able to do that for only another two or three years.
| 27 | Johnny Damon |
| Age: 37 Bats: L Throws: L Position: OF '11 team: Tampa Bay Rays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Johnny Damon[/h4][h5]#22 DHTampa Bay Rays[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM150
- HR16
- RBI73
- R79
- OBP.326
- AVG.261
Damon still has enough speed and pop to have value to a club in at least a part-time role, but he probably belongs in a DH spot and his bat isn't what it used to be. What concerns me about Damon is that 2011 was his worst year in terms of approach, with his lowest full-season walk total since 1997 while his strikeout rate remained where it's been over the past two years. He's running deep counts, but they're not ending as well for him as they used to, and he's not capitalizing on getting ahead in the count as he once did. I don't think Damon is done, but I wouldn't go beyond one year given the red flags here and his below-average defense in left field.
| 28 | Francisco Rodriguez |
| Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R Position: RP '11 team: New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Francisco Rodriguez[/h4][h5]#57 RPMilwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM73
- W6
- L2
- BB26
- K79
- ERA2.64
K-Rod is no longer an overrated closer living off his past laurels, but rather a capable setup man. He sits in the 89-92 mph range with his fastball but keeps it down more effectively than he used to. He misses bats with an action changeup in the low 80s that drops out of sight, meaning hitters who were sitting fastball will be lucky to get a tiny piece of the pitch. The wildness that crept into his game in his last years with the Angels appears to be gone, and the once-devastating slider is more of a downer curveball in the upper 70s that he probably could relegate to show-me status. Three years ago, he looked like fool's gold in free agency, and he was. This time around, he is not as high profile but looks like he's embarking on a second act.
| 29 | Ryan Doumit |
| Age: 30 Bats: B Throws: R Position: C '11 team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Ryan Doumit[/h4][h5]#41 CPittsburgh Pirates[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM77
- HR8
- RBI30
- R17
- OBP.353
- AVG.303
He can't catch -- let's just get that out of the way now. He can't handle the position and can't stay healthy when he tries. But Doumit can hit a little, with a .280/.337/.454 composite line over the past five years, and could make a fine, cheap DH or emergency LF/1B for someone, although he's not as selective as he'd need to be to profile as more than an average regular. He's a switch-hitter who's stronger from the left side but capable enough either way that he doesn't need a platoon partner; his only real weakness is against pitchers who can change speeds effectively. He's been fragile enough that I'd just let him DH and see whether I could get 140 games out of him, but I imagine there will be interest in him as a first baseman (no thanks) or in left or right field (maybe, but I doubt it).
| 30 | Aaron Hill |
| Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 2B '11 team: Arizona Diamondbacks | Toronto Blue Jays | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Aaron Hill[/h4][h5]#2 2BArizona Diamondbacks[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM137
- HR8
- RBI61
- R61
- OBP.299
- AVG.246
Hill seemed to like facing National League pitching a lot more than he liked American League pitching, hitting .315/.386/.492 after the trade from Toronto to Arizona and reaching base in 29 of 33 games with the Diamondbacks. It is a tiny sample and won't hold unless Hill continues to stay short to the ball, rather than trying to pull everything out of the park as he has since his 36-homer outburst in 2009. He's an above-average defender at second who can still run and plays with a ton of energy, making him well worth the gamble to see whether the change of scenery really did restart his bat.
#1-10.
Spoiler [+]
| 1 | Prince Fielder |
| Age: 27 Bats: L Throws: R Position: 1B '11 team: Milwaukee Brewers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Prince Fielder[/h4][h5]#28 1BMilwaukee Brewers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM162
- HR38
- RBI120
- R95
- OBP.415
- AVG.299
Fielder reaches the market at an unusually young age, entering his age-28 season, meaning that the team that signs him likely will get all of his peak years plus a few early decline years, as opposed to the typical free-agent hitter who signs a big deal just as he's entering his decline phase.
He offers an impressive package of plus power, patience and ability to hit, while playing a capable first base, and is likely to hold that offensive value for the majority of that next contract, even if it reaches eight years. For a big guy with wide hips, Fielder is able to turn on the inside pitch surprisingly well, a testament to both his bat (and hand) speed and the fact that he's pretty athletic for his size. He has a fairly persistent platoon split that isn't likely to go away entirely; his improvements against left-handed pitching in 2011 -- particularly in making contact -- probably represent his ceiling in that area, and he still doesn't like the breaking ball moving away from him. And although some are concerned about his girth, it should be noted that he has averaged 160 games played per season since 2006.
The risks are obvious -- that he regresses against left-handed pitchers, that he doesn't continue to work to stay in shape, that the fact that a third of his walks in 2011 were intentional is causing us to overstate his patience -- but they are more than mitigated by the chance to get a premium bat who is productive and durable for all his prime years.
| 2 | Albert Pujols |
| Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 1B '11 team: St. Louis Cardinals | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Albert Pujols[/h4][h5]#5 1BSt. Louis Cardinals[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM147
- HR37
- RBI99
- R105
- OBP.366
- AVG.299
If their ages were closer, Pujols would be the obvious choice over Fielder for this list, but Pujols, listed at age 32 for the 2012 season, probably is going to spend more time in his decline phase on this next contract than he is producing at his customary levels.
Pujols' 2011 season started slowly, crafting an absurd narrative about the pressure of the contract year getting to him. Meanwhile, the pressure of the postseason hasn't fazed him one bit, has it? From June 1 until the end of the regular season, including a September in which every game mattered for the team, he hit a very Pujolsian .318/.383/.613 (BA/OBP/SLG).
Pujols' swing is simple and direct, with outstanding hip rotation to help him generate power, and he has one of the strongest batting eyes in the game. His first 10 years rank with the first decade of any player in the history of the game. Unlike Fielder, Pujols doesn't show a serious platoon split and is a plus defensive first baseman. But, also unlike Fielder, Pujols has had injury trouble, including an elbow injury that required surgery after the 2008 season and tendinitis in the other elbow last year, although he's missed significant time only for a fractured arm this season. And Pujols is at least 32 heading into 2012, an age at which most hitters are beginning their decline phase ... and that's if we ignore the persistent yet unproven rumors that Pujols is older than his listed age would indicate; if his real age differed from his listed age, it would dramatically affect his expected output on the contract.
| 3 | Yu Darvish |
| Age: 25 Bats: R Throws: R Position: SP '11 team: Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4][h5]#11 SPHokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM28
- W18
- L6
- BB36
- K276
- ERA1.44
Darvish has been the object of MLB teams' affection dating back to the 2009 World Baseball Classic, for his combination of plus stuff, incredible performances and size. On that year's Japanese WBC roster, he was a good 4 inches taller than all but one of the other pitchers, so he's built more like the American scouting ideal. Darvish, who is half-Japanese and half-Iranian, needs to come to MLB if he wants to be challenged further after he punched out 276 in 232 innings in Japan this season while walking just 30 unintentionally.
Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings.
He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings.
| 4 | Jose Reyes |
| Age: 28 Bats: Both Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: New York Mets | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jose Reyes[/h4][h5]#7 SSNew York Mets[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM126
- HR7
- RBI44
- R101
- OBP.384
- AVG.337
After two injury-plagued years, Reyes got mostly healthy in time for a free-agent push, posting career bests in all rate stats, including the all-encompassing wOBA. A switch-hitter, Reyes has a different swing on each side of the plate but tends to get similar results. Hitting right-handed, he drops his hands and rotates his hips more, while left-handed, he is shorter and more direct to the ball but seems to square it up more consistently. He has had trouble with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but manages to spoil enough of them that he can get back into fastball counts and do more damage.
Reyes would be first on this list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available.
| 5 | Jimmy Rollins |
| Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R Position: SS '11 team: Philadelphia Phillies | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Jimmy Rollins[/h4][h5]#11 SSPhiladelphia Phillies[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR16
- RBI63
- R87
- OBP.338
- AVG.268
Rollins is the poor man's Jose Reyes in this market, a capable shortstop who has struggled with leg injuries (in this case, calf and groin), but who didn't have the same big year Reyes did to boost him heading into free agency. Rollins also doesn't have Reyes' plate discipline or ability to recognize breaking stuff, but he can get around fine on a good fastball and uses his legs to create more hits and (outside of 2011, at least) add value on the bases.
He remains a slightly above-average defensive shortstop but his range has been reduced by his leg problems the past two years, and at 33, he was unlikely to maintain his defensive value much longer even if he stayed healthy. He can fill the shortstop hole for a team in need for two or three years, but betting on him for longer than that is exceedingly risky given his age, health and recent performance.
| 6 | Mark Buehrle |
| Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Chicago White Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Mark Buehrle[/h4][h5]#56 SPChicago White Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM31
- W13
- L9
- BB45
- K109
- ERA3.59
Buehrle is overrated by those who want to discuss his potential Hall of Fame case (I'm not on board), but he is underrated because of his lack of premium performances. His best attribute is his ability to log innings -- he throws with about as little effort as anyone this side of Livan Hernandez and has plus control, letting him work deep into games.
Buehrle has thrown more than 200 innings and made at least 30 starts in 11 straight seasons, and the last year in which he walked more than 50 batters unintentionally was 2003. In addition, he's led the American League in hits allowed in four of the past seven seasons, a function of that same durability, but also of his lack of any out pitch and a fringy-at-best fastball. His fastball sits in the mid-80s; however, he pairs it with a big-breaking cutter that looks more like a slider but is closer in velocity to his fastball than an ordinary slider would be, as well as an upper-70s changeup with downward action and good arm speed. He hides the ball well behind his body. In front of a bad defense, Buehrle could be a disaster, but in the right environment, he's a solid innings eater in the middle of a rotation who provides unusual reliability.
| 7 | Aramis Ramirez |
| Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R Position: 3B '11 team: Chicago Cubs | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Aramis Ramirez[/h4][h5]#16 3BChicago Cubs[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM149
- HR26
- RBI93
- R80
- OBP.361
- AVG.306
Ramirez's peak years are now behind him, making him a risky player in a market thin with safe power threats beyond its top two options. He's a severe pull hitter who likes the ball middle-in or just tailing in toward his bat, and while he has the strength to drive the ball the other way, he rarely stays back enough to do so.
Pitchers can attack him with velocity, especially away where he can't try to start his bat early and pull it, but he hasn't yet experienced the big loss of bat speed you'd expect given his age and body type. That will come in the next few years, of course, as Ramirez (like all of us) faces that penalty for a crime he hasn't committed, one that already has turned him from an indifferent defender at third into an outright bad one. Moved to first base, he could turn in a few productive years as a second-tier power hitter who makes enough contact to get on base at a reasonable clip. He's also one of the most likely players in this market to go all Adam Dunn on his new employers.
| 8 | C.J. Wilson |
| Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: L Position: SP '11 team: Texas Rangers | Status: Terms: |
[h4]C.J. Wilson[/h4][h5]#36 SPTexas Rangers[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM34
- W16
- L7
- BB74
- K206
- ERA2.94
Wilson's up-and-down October didn't help his free-agent case, but I doubt it hurt it, either, as he'd thrown a career-high 223 innings during the regular season in just his second season as a starter after four-plus years in the 'pen. That said, it might have opened a few eyes to Wilson's true status as a No. 2 starter rather than an ace who'll miss enough bats to succeed in any environment.
His slider is his most effective pitch, a low-80s offering with good tilt that hitters hit into the ground when they don't swing over it, and he'll throw it down and away to a left-handed hitter or throw it at the back foot of a right-handed one. His weakness is fringy fastball command. He throws strikes with his heater but fails to locate it within the zone. The good news is he cut his walk rate in 2011 over 2010. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003 but spent several years in relief building up arm strength, so he might be a safer bet to stay healthy than most 31-year-old starters because he has less mileage on his current elbow. I just don't see him anchoring a staff unless it's one with a stellar infield behind him.
| 9 | Carlos Beltran |
| Age: 34 Bats: B Throws: R Position: OF '11 team: New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | Status: Terms: |
[h4]Carlos Beltran[/h4][h5]#15 RFSan Francisco Giants[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM142
- HR22
- RBI84
- R78
- OBP.385
- AVG.300
His MVP-level performances of 2006 and 2008 are long gone, but Beltran did re-establish himself as an above-average regular in 2011 by staying mostly healthy and showing he hasn't lost any bat speed, although he had to move to right field and probably is best suited to left at this point due to his diminished range. He still can turn on a good fastball and showed he can hit from both sides of the plate, but his baserunning, once a huge part of the value he provided as a player because he was so rarely caught stealing, is no longer a factor. Many teams can and will do worse at the DH spot, but others might be willing to accept the loss of five or so runs of value on defense and the added injury risk by playing him in left, especially since Beltran has a clause in his contract that prevents the Giants from offering him arbitration, which means the team that signs him won't need to give up a draft pick as compensation.
| 10 | http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5915David Ortiz |
| Age: 35 Bats: L Throws: L Position: DH '11 team: Boston Red Sox | Status: Terms: |
[h4]David Ortiz[/h4][h5]#34 DHBoston Red Sox[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM146
- HR29
- RBI96
- R84
- OBP.398
- AVG.309
I thought Ortiz was cooked more than a year ago, but he discovered a fountain of youth ... OK, perhaps not the best metaphor here, but his baseball life has had a second act after all, with 2011 ending up his best year since 2007. Some of this was likely a fluke, as Ortiz posted career-best numbers against left-handed pitching, usually an area of weakness for him, but he murdered fastballs from both left- and right-handed pitchers all year, a resurgence in the bat speed that had deserted him (seemingly for good) back in 2009.
He is primarily a pull hitter and wants the ball right out over the plate; he's improved his ability to lay off the ball away, which he's just going to roll over anyway. He's limited to the designated hitter spot -- seriously, you don't want him on the field -- which limits his value, but if he can maintain this impressive new selectivity, he'll have a few more similarly productive years at the plate.
Buyer Beware: CJ Wilson.
Spoiler [+]
When the Texas Rangers decided to move C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to the rotation prior to the 2010 season, it was met with some skepticism. Such conversions are rarely successful, and while Wilson was an effective reliever, he was far from dominant.
Two years later, the move looks inspired. In two seasons as a starter, Wilson is 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA and almost eight strikeouts per nine innings while helping the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants. As a result, the soon-to-be 31-year-old hits free agency as the most in-demand lefty on the market.
There's no doubt Wilson will help whichever team signs him, but if someone pays close to nine figures to lure him away from the Rangers, they should be aware that a couple of circumstances conspired to make him look better than he is. And if you take him out of Arlington, his numbers will likely take a big hit.
One major factor working in Wilson's favor in Texas has been fantastic defense. In 2010, the Rangers were fourth in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is the rate they converted batted balls into outs. The club added slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre before the 2011 season and moved up to second in defensive efficiency. This plays perfectly into Wilson's hands because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. His ground ball rate of 49.3 percent was 12th in the AL in 2011 and explains why the home-run friendly environment of Rangers Ballpark does not affect him as much as other hurlers.
Wilson's Achilles' heel is a walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings for his career, but with Beltre, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus behind him, that weakness is mitigated by stellar D. In fact, Wilson induced a double play on 22 percent of DP opportunities this year, the third-highest rate in baseball. (Teammate Matt Harrison was second at 26.2 percent.) In other words, the Rangers' defense is uniquely suited to minimize Wilson's weakness. Put him on a team with mediocre infield defense, and suddenly a lot of those 6-4-3s are RBI singles.
Great defense is one reason why Wilson's numbers are not as good as they appear, but the biggest factor is the weak competition he has faced in the AL West. During the last two seasons, Wilson has made 17 starts against the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners, the two lowest-scoring AL offenses in that span. And while the A's have been your run-of-the-mill punchless squad, the Mariners' futility borders on historic.
[h4]Lowest opponents' OPS[/h4]
The top-five pitchers based on lowest opponents' OPS in 2011 (Source: Baseball Prospectus)
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Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Opp. OPS
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Basically, one out of every four starts he has gotten for the Rangers has been against the worst two offenses in the AL; and in 2011, Wilson's opponents combined for an OPS of .728, which was the lowest in baseball for any ERA qualifier (see table). We all saw Wilson struggle mightily in the postseason this year, and front offices across baseball have to be wondering if he has the stuff to succeed against superior competition. Any team that signs Wilson will certainly have its sights set on October, and that team better be aware of how much of his gaudy stat line is built on his domination of second-division clubs.
In Wilson's defense, one thing he does better than pretty much any southpaw in baseball is neutralize left-handed batters. He's held them to a .539 OPS during the last two years -- second only to David Price among full-time starters during that time -- and had a lot of success against clubs that are loaded with lefties. For example, Wilson has a 1.08 ERA in five starts (33 1/3 innings) against the Boston Red Sox during the last two seasons, as their lineup has been anchored by the likes of left-handed hitters such as David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew.
So you can see why Wilson is appealing to the New York Yankees, and his stat line against Boston will surely be cited as a reason for the Yanks to sign him. However, the Yankees do not have a great infield defense (the left side is particularly bad) and Ortiz and Drew might both be gone next year, making the Sox far less left-leaning.
If you're a team with a great infield defense and have a lot of lefty thumpers in your division, Wilson might end up being a good investment. But he owes much of his success to the unique set of circumstances he has encountered in Texas. If maintaining a high level of performance is his ultimate goal -- and the dollar offer is in the same ballpark -- he's better off staying there.
Two years later, the move looks inspired. In two seasons as a starter, Wilson is 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA and almost eight strikeouts per nine innings while helping the Rangers win back-to-back American League pennants. As a result, the soon-to-be 31-year-old hits free agency as the most in-demand lefty on the market.
There's no doubt Wilson will help whichever team signs him, but if someone pays close to nine figures to lure him away from the Rangers, they should be aware that a couple of circumstances conspired to make him look better than he is. And if you take him out of Arlington, his numbers will likely take a big hit.
One major factor working in Wilson's favor in Texas has been fantastic defense. In 2010, the Rangers were fourth in the majors in defensive efficiency, which is the rate they converted batted balls into outs. The club added slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre before the 2011 season and moved up to second in defensive efficiency. This plays perfectly into Wilson's hands because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. His ground ball rate of 49.3 percent was 12th in the AL in 2011 and explains why the home-run friendly environment of Rangers Ballpark does not affect him as much as other hurlers.
Wilson's Achilles' heel is a walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings for his career, but with Beltre, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus behind him, that weakness is mitigated by stellar D. In fact, Wilson induced a double play on 22 percent of DP opportunities this year, the third-highest rate in baseball. (Teammate Matt Harrison was second at 26.2 percent.) In other words, the Rangers' defense is uniquely suited to minimize Wilson's weakness. Put him on a team with mediocre infield defense, and suddenly a lot of those 6-4-3s are RBI singles.
Great defense is one reason why Wilson's numbers are not as good as they appear, but the biggest factor is the weak competition he has faced in the AL West. During the last two seasons, Wilson has made 17 starts against the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners, the two lowest-scoring AL offenses in that span. And while the A's have been your run-of-the-mill punchless squad, the Mariners' futility borders on historic.
[h4]Lowest opponents' OPS[/h4]
The top-five pitchers based on lowest opponents' OPS in 2011 (Source: Baseball Prospectus)
| C.J. Wilson | .728 |
| John Lannan | .734 |
| Brad Penny | .735 |
| Rick Porcello | .737 |
| Daniel Hudson | .737 |
Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Opp. OPS
[/th]
Basically, one out of every four starts he has gotten for the Rangers has been against the worst two offenses in the AL; and in 2011, Wilson's opponents combined for an OPS of .728, which was the lowest in baseball for any ERA qualifier (see table). We all saw Wilson struggle mightily in the postseason this year, and front offices across baseball have to be wondering if he has the stuff to succeed against superior competition. Any team that signs Wilson will certainly have its sights set on October, and that team better be aware of how much of his gaudy stat line is built on his domination of second-division clubs.
In Wilson's defense, one thing he does better than pretty much any southpaw in baseball is neutralize left-handed batters. He's held them to a .539 OPS during the last two years -- second only to David Price among full-time starters during that time -- and had a lot of success against clubs that are loaded with lefties. For example, Wilson has a 1.08 ERA in five starts (33 1/3 innings) against the Boston Red Sox during the last two seasons, as their lineup has been anchored by the likes of left-handed hitters such as David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew.
So you can see why Wilson is appealing to the New York Yankees, and his stat line against Boston will surely be cited as a reason for the Yanks to sign him. However, the Yankees do not have a great infield defense (the left side is particularly bad) and Ortiz and Drew might both be gone next year, making the Sox far less left-leaning.
If you're a team with a great infield defense and have a lot of lefty thumpers in your division, Wilson might end up being a good investment. But he owes much of his success to the unique set of circumstances he has encountered in Texas. If maintaining a high level of performance is his ultimate goal -- and the dollar offer is in the same ballpark -- he's better off staying there.
Five Moves That Should Happen.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to free agency, there are some obvious things that are likely to happen this winter -- the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are going to add starting pitching depth, the St. Louis Cardinals are going to try their best to retain Albert Pujols, and a mystery team will appear to help boost the stock of some high-profile player.
However, we're not here to talk about the obvious. Instead, I'd like to propose five outside-the-box transactions that should happen this winter:
[h3]1. The Texas Rangers should sign Prince Fielder[/h3]
While the Rangers made it back to the World Series for the second consecutive year, they did it in spite of what they got from their first baseman in 2011. The .271/.331/.422 mark put up by their collective group ranked just 23rd in the majors, and when the playoffs rolled around, they often found themselves hitting Mitch Moreland ninth in the order. When your first baseman is your worst hitter, you have a problem.
Moreland's lack of production also meant that the middle of the team's order skewed heavily to the right-hand side, as Josh Hamilton was the only regular left-handed bat to hit in a run-producing spot. With Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz lined up to protect Hamilton, the team lacks another thumping left-handed option to keep bullpens honest.
Enter Fielder, who doesn't have an obvious landing spot but wants an enormous contract. He's the best left-handed hitter on the market, and the two-time defending AL champions have the revenue to make him a significant offer. They also have the benefit of DH'ing Fielder down the line if his defense continues to erode, and the offensive-friendly ballpark in Arlington would help him produce career numbers worthy of Cooperstown. Fielder solves a lot of problems for Texas, and it's also the best destination for him in terms of potential production.
[h3]2. The Atlanta Braves should sign Jimmy Rollins[/h3]
The Braves had a playoff-caliber pitching staff, but their offense simply didn't produce enough runs to keep the team from falling apart down the stretch. Led by Alex Gonzalez, the Braves' shortstops combined to post a .267 on-base percentage, and their offensive production at the position ranked 25th in baseball.
Rollins isn't what he was a few years ago, but he's still a massive upgrade over what the Braves have in-house at short. In addition, the Braves have a chance to strengthen themselves while weakening their primary competition in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rollins was worth 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011, and while he's getting older, his underlying skills support similar performance for the next year or two at least. The Braves would receive a 2-3 win upgrade by replacing Gonzalez with Rollins, but perhaps just as importantly, would leave a gaping hole for Philadelphia.
With youngster Freddy Galvis unlikely to be ready for prime time and a free agent market low on talented shortstops, the Phillies would have to scramble to replace Rollins and would not be able to find similar production. Rollins to Atlanta could be as large as a five-win swing in the standings, and the difference between which team wins the division next season.
[h3]3. The Yankees should sign David Ortiz[/h3]
The Red Sox are coming off a brutal finish to the 2011 season. Their general manger left for a new challenge, and Boston has a roster with multiple question marks going forward. The last thing the Red Sox need is to try to replace one of their impact hitters from 2011, but if the Yankees want to kick their rivals when they are down, they should sign Ortiz and make new Boston GM Ben Cherington scramble to fill the void.
Despite all the talk about Ortiz reaching the end of his career, his 153 wRC+ tied for the ninth-best mark in all of baseball last year. Ortiz had arguably a better season than Pujols in 2011, and he will come at a fraction of the cost and commitment. While the Yankees seemingly have an endless number of players who could use some time at DH going forward, Ortiz is a better hitter than all of them and would allow Brian Cashman to use Jesus Montero as trade bait to get the front-line starter he really covets.
Ortiz would be able to take full advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. Most importantly, he would help the Yankees distance themselves from their archrival in the AL East in 2012.
[h3]4. The Tampa Bay Rays should sign Coco Crisp[/h3]
The Rays have turned themselves into a winning organization by finding value in players that aren't as well appreciated as they should be, and Crisp is perhaps the most underrated free agent on the market this winter. During the last three years, he's averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him nearly on par with Carlos Beltran, who will command significantly more money than Crisp. Injury concerns with Crisp are legitimate, and while he might not be an ironman, he's quite productive when he's on the field.
Bringing Crisp in to take over center field gives the team the ability to trade B.J. Upton, who is due another raise in arbitration and is just a year away from free agency. Crisp will likely get a lower salary as a free agent than Upton would in arbitration, so the team could actually save money and use Upton to improve other parts of the roster.
Given his pedigree and athletic ability, there will be a market for Upton's services, and the Rays would almost certainly get more overall value from Crisp in center, the talent Upton would bring back in a trade, and the influx of cash.
[h3]5. The Colorado Rockies should sign C.J. Wilson[/h3]
When the Rockies traded away Ubaldo Jimenez, they created a hole at the front of their rotation that will need to be filled before they can close the gap in the NL West again. Wilson won't come cheap as the best non-Sabathia starting pitcher on the market, but the Rockies should have some money to spend this winter, and Wilson is one of the rare pitchers who could succeed at altitude.
He's cut his teeth in Texas, so he's already shown he can pitch and succeed in ballparks that are built for offense. He's also a ground-ball pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts, thus somewhat mitigating the park effect on his performance. By not depending heavily on a breaking ball, Wilson's repertoire is well-suited to pitching in thin air, as he can cut and sink his fastball in order to get opposing hitters out.
His struggles during the postseason may subdue the total number of dollars Wilson receives this winter, and that can only help the Rockies. Wilson would fit in well at the front of the Rockies' rotation, and with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in their prime, Colorado can't waste time hoping to develop young pitchers internally. Wilson would make the Rockies contenders again, and they should make him an offer he can't refuse.
However, we're not here to talk about the obvious. Instead, I'd like to propose five outside-the-box transactions that should happen this winter:
[h3]1. The Texas Rangers should sign Prince Fielder[/h3]
While the Rangers made it back to the World Series for the second consecutive year, they did it in spite of what they got from their first baseman in 2011. The .271/.331/.422 mark put up by their collective group ranked just 23rd in the majors, and when the playoffs rolled around, they often found themselves hitting Mitch Moreland ninth in the order. When your first baseman is your worst hitter, you have a problem.
Moreland's lack of production also meant that the middle of the team's order skewed heavily to the right-hand side, as Josh Hamilton was the only regular left-handed bat to hit in a run-producing spot. With Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz lined up to protect Hamilton, the team lacks another thumping left-handed option to keep bullpens honest.
Enter Fielder, who doesn't have an obvious landing spot but wants an enormous contract. He's the best left-handed hitter on the market, and the two-time defending AL champions have the revenue to make him a significant offer. They also have the benefit of DH'ing Fielder down the line if his defense continues to erode, and the offensive-friendly ballpark in Arlington would help him produce career numbers worthy of Cooperstown. Fielder solves a lot of problems for Texas, and it's also the best destination for him in terms of potential production.
[h3]2. The Atlanta Braves should sign Jimmy Rollins[/h3]
The Braves had a playoff-caliber pitching staff, but their offense simply didn't produce enough runs to keep the team from falling apart down the stretch. Led by Alex Gonzalez, the Braves' shortstops combined to post a .267 on-base percentage, and their offensive production at the position ranked 25th in baseball.
Rollins isn't what he was a few years ago, but he's still a massive upgrade over what the Braves have in-house at short. In addition, the Braves have a chance to strengthen themselves while weakening their primary competition in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rollins was worth 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011, and while he's getting older, his underlying skills support similar performance for the next year or two at least. The Braves would receive a 2-3 win upgrade by replacing Gonzalez with Rollins, but perhaps just as importantly, would leave a gaping hole for Philadelphia.
With youngster Freddy Galvis unlikely to be ready for prime time and a free agent market low on talented shortstops, the Phillies would have to scramble to replace Rollins and would not be able to find similar production. Rollins to Atlanta could be as large as a five-win swing in the standings, and the difference between which team wins the division next season.
[h3]3. The Yankees should sign David Ortiz[/h3]
The Red Sox are coming off a brutal finish to the 2011 season. Their general manger left for a new challenge, and Boston has a roster with multiple question marks going forward. The last thing the Red Sox need is to try to replace one of their impact hitters from 2011, but if the Yankees want to kick their rivals when they are down, they should sign Ortiz and make new Boston GM Ben Cherington scramble to fill the void.
Despite all the talk about Ortiz reaching the end of his career, his 153 wRC+ tied for the ninth-best mark in all of baseball last year. Ortiz had arguably a better season than Pujols in 2011, and he will come at a fraction of the cost and commitment. While the Yankees seemingly have an endless number of players who could use some time at DH going forward, Ortiz is a better hitter than all of them and would allow Brian Cashman to use Jesus Montero as trade bait to get the front-line starter he really covets.
Ortiz would be able to take full advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. Most importantly, he would help the Yankees distance themselves from their archrival in the AL East in 2012.
[h3]4. The Tampa Bay Rays should sign Coco Crisp[/h3]
The Rays have turned themselves into a winning organization by finding value in players that aren't as well appreciated as they should be, and Crisp is perhaps the most underrated free agent on the market this winter. During the last three years, he's averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him nearly on par with Carlos Beltran, who will command significantly more money than Crisp. Injury concerns with Crisp are legitimate, and while he might not be an ironman, he's quite productive when he's on the field.
Bringing Crisp in to take over center field gives the team the ability to trade B.J. Upton, who is due another raise in arbitration and is just a year away from free agency. Crisp will likely get a lower salary as a free agent than Upton would in arbitration, so the team could actually save money and use Upton to improve other parts of the roster.
Given his pedigree and athletic ability, there will be a market for Upton's services, and the Rays would almost certainly get more overall value from Crisp in center, the talent Upton would bring back in a trade, and the influx of cash.
[h3]5. The Colorado Rockies should sign C.J. Wilson[/h3]
When the Rockies traded away Ubaldo Jimenez, they created a hole at the front of their rotation that will need to be filled before they can close the gap in the NL West again. Wilson won't come cheap as the best non-Sabathia starting pitcher on the market, but the Rockies should have some money to spend this winter, and Wilson is one of the rare pitchers who could succeed at altitude.
He's cut his teeth in Texas, so he's already shown he can pitch and succeed in ballparks that are built for offense. He's also a ground-ball pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts, thus somewhat mitigating the park effect on his performance. By not depending heavily on a breaking ball, Wilson's repertoire is well-suited to pitching in thin air, as he can cut and sink his fastball in order to get opposing hitters out.
His struggles during the postseason may subdue the total number of dollars Wilson receives this winter, and that can only help the Rockies. Wilson would fit in well at the front of the Rockies' rotation, and with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in their prime, Colorado can't waste time hoping to develop young pitchers internally. Wilson would make the Rockies contenders again, and they should make him an offer he can't refuse.
Orioles stalled by a perception problem.
Spoiler [+]
The truth is that Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos is much more of a lawyer than a baseball owner, and he spends almost all of his days involved in lawsuits. And the truth is that in Buck Showalter's perfect world, he'd love to work with some really smart people who build a great team with which the Orioles can thrive.
But the Orioles have a significant perception problem now, slowing down a team already viewed within the industry as a one that is all horse-and-buggy in a wireless world. Think about what we just saw in the last week: The Orioles -- a team with a rich history, a landmark baseball park and a fan base starved for success and dying for its next summer of contention -- were twice turned down by assistant general managers.
It would be one thing if an established general manager like Theo Epstein had rejected their overtures; that would be more understandable from the Orioles' point of view. But last week, Jerry DiPoto -- who had never been a full-fledged general manager -- essentially withdrew from consideration for the Orioles' GM job when he was their top choice. Then, a couple of days ago, Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava rejected the Orioles' offer to be their GM.
LaCava has said all the right things since turning down the job, speaking of how much he loves being with the Blue Jays. But the saying goes that there are only 30 Major League Baseball GM jobs in the world, and if you're given a first chance to take a GM spot, you have to grab it no matter the complications. But the Orioles' situation is viewed as so difficult that twice assistant GMs rejected the opportunity take over in Baltimore.
There are other highly regarded assistant GMs who have not yet been interviewed by the Orioles who feel the same way, some telling friends that if Baltimore called, they would not be interested.
The concerns outsiders have about the Orioles is that Angelos interferes in the day-to-day business, and that Showalter is too powerful for the next general manager to walk into the front office and have the kind of influence he needs. At Angelos' request, Showalter was part of the group that conducted interviews of prospective GMs. "Maybe the best thing Angelos can do now," said a highly-ranked executive on Wednesday, "is to tell Buck he needs him to take over baseball operations and then hire a manager."
The perception within the industry -- fair or not -- is that whoever takes the Orioles' GM job will have less power than any GM within the sport.
That's not something that Angelos wants, or Showalter for that matter. But the perception is a major problem.
And regardless of how or why they are in this position, the Orioles will never get better unless they find a way to be more efficient, more aggressive, and more progressive. Every winter, it seems, they are the last team to sign players, and because they are left to comb over scraps, they don't get better. The same dynamic has been in play in the GM search: The Orioles have known for months that Andy MacPhail would not stay on as general manager, and yet here they are, on the first day when free agents can sign, and they are basically starting from scratch and trying to find a GM.
The New York Yankees have the most resources and have greatly improved their scouting and player development in the last five years. Despite the Boston's September flop, they are regarded among the most dangerous organizations in the sport. The Tampa Bay Rays have been regarded as the best and the brightest and are loaded with talent. Alex Anthopoulos has greatly impressed his peers in his first two years running the Blue Jays.
For the Orioles, though, there is a perception problem, which is scaring away the kind of folks that could turn around the franchise.
LaCava sees the promise in the Blue Jays, which is why he says he turned down the Baltimore job.
A former Orioles executive will interview with Baltimore.
The Orioles' reputation has taken a hit, writes Kevin Cowherd.
Whoever the next Orioles' GM is will have to wade into the ocean of free agents, as Dan Connolly writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Theo Epstein flew to Florida to fire Mike Quade, and then he immediately called Ryne Sandberg to let him know he will not be considered for the Chicago Cubs managerial opening. Dale Sveum and Mike Maddux are among those candidates being considered, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
Terry Francona is the right guy for the St. Louis Cardinals job. St. Louis will start interviewing candidates today.
Dale Sveum interviewed with the Red Sox and says he'd take a more disciplined approach, as Tim Britton writes. Sveum stated his case, as Scott Lauber writes.
Before Theo Epstein left for the Cubs, he and his assistant Ben Cherington had many conversations about managerial candidates. Now Cherington has replaced Epstein and both are looking for managers, so they could be working from very similar lists of candidates.
And Sveum is a known quantity to both Epstein and Cherington; he would seem to be in an excellent position to get his first real shot at managing in the big leagues.
• Peter O'Malley is among those interested in buying the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The sale of the Dodgers creates uncertainty. Lew Wolff says he's not interested in buying the Dodgers. It's time for Bud Selig to do right by the Dodgers, writes Vincent Bonsignore.
Bud Selig should be toasted, writes Bill Dwyre. Major League Baseball stood its ground and eventually the totality of Frank McCourt's financial situation caved in on him, for that, Selig deserves credit. But it should not be forgotten, either, that McCourt was chosen to own the Dodgers despite serious questions about his financial strength.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Arizona Diamondbacks re-signed John McDonald.
2. The San Francisco Giants need to re-sign Carlos Beltran, writes John Shea.
3. The Oakland Athletics haven't made offers to any of their free agents.
4. Josh Byrnes is studying front office candidates, writes Bill Center.
5. The Seattle Mariners are taking a look at the market, writes Larry Larue.
6. The Detroit Tigers could have a dull winter.
7. The Minnesota Twins hired a former Twin as a hitting coach, writes Joe Christensen.
8. The Twins need to fill their needs through free agency, writes John Shipley.
9. Darren O'Day was claimed on waivers.
10. The Texas Rangers made some cuts.
11. The Washington Nationals are closing in on a deal with Chien-Ming Wang.
12. Wrote here the other day that Grady Sizemore could be a great fit with the Nationals; his agent tells Adam Kilgore he's open to anything.
13. The Philadelphia Phillies have many unanswered questions, writes Matt Gelb.
14. The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to begin their offseason shopping, writes Bill Brink.
15. Within this story, there is word that the Red Sox and Cubs have received another week to work out the Theo Epstein compensation issue.
16. The New York Mets have their eyes on Jose Reyes.
17. The Yankees are looking to be smart shoppers.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jose Bautista was among the Silver Slugger winners.
• Nick Markakis feels like he's getting healthy.
• The Florida Marlins want to ensure smooth traffic and parking at their new ballpark.
• Chip Bailey wonders if a Houston Astros official is getting a free pass.
• The mayor of Chicago hasn't changed his mind on how to revamp Wrigley Field.
• Bryan Stow wrote his own name.
And today will be better than yesterday.
But the Orioles have a significant perception problem now, slowing down a team already viewed within the industry as a one that is all horse-and-buggy in a wireless world. Think about what we just saw in the last week: The Orioles -- a team with a rich history, a landmark baseball park and a fan base starved for success and dying for its next summer of contention -- were twice turned down by assistant general managers.
It would be one thing if an established general manager like Theo Epstein had rejected their overtures; that would be more understandable from the Orioles' point of view. But last week, Jerry DiPoto -- who had never been a full-fledged general manager -- essentially withdrew from consideration for the Orioles' GM job when he was their top choice. Then, a couple of days ago, Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava rejected the Orioles' offer to be their GM.
LaCava has said all the right things since turning down the job, speaking of how much he loves being with the Blue Jays. But the saying goes that there are only 30 Major League Baseball GM jobs in the world, and if you're given a first chance to take a GM spot, you have to grab it no matter the complications. But the Orioles' situation is viewed as so difficult that twice assistant GMs rejected the opportunity take over in Baltimore.
There are other highly regarded assistant GMs who have not yet been interviewed by the Orioles who feel the same way, some telling friends that if Baltimore called, they would not be interested.
The concerns outsiders have about the Orioles is that Angelos interferes in the day-to-day business, and that Showalter is too powerful for the next general manager to walk into the front office and have the kind of influence he needs. At Angelos' request, Showalter was part of the group that conducted interviews of prospective GMs. "Maybe the best thing Angelos can do now," said a highly-ranked executive on Wednesday, "is to tell Buck he needs him to take over baseball operations and then hire a manager."
The perception within the industry -- fair or not -- is that whoever takes the Orioles' GM job will have less power than any GM within the sport.
That's not something that Angelos wants, or Showalter for that matter. But the perception is a major problem.
And regardless of how or why they are in this position, the Orioles will never get better unless they find a way to be more efficient, more aggressive, and more progressive. Every winter, it seems, they are the last team to sign players, and because they are left to comb over scraps, they don't get better. The same dynamic has been in play in the GM search: The Orioles have known for months that Andy MacPhail would not stay on as general manager, and yet here they are, on the first day when free agents can sign, and they are basically starting from scratch and trying to find a GM.
The New York Yankees have the most resources and have greatly improved their scouting and player development in the last five years. Despite the Boston's September flop, they are regarded among the most dangerous organizations in the sport. The Tampa Bay Rays have been regarded as the best and the brightest and are loaded with talent. Alex Anthopoulos has greatly impressed his peers in his first two years running the Blue Jays.
For the Orioles, though, there is a perception problem, which is scaring away the kind of folks that could turn around the franchise.
LaCava sees the promise in the Blue Jays, which is why he says he turned down the Baltimore job.
A former Orioles executive will interview with Baltimore.
The Orioles' reputation has taken a hit, writes Kevin Cowherd.
Whoever the next Orioles' GM is will have to wade into the ocean of free agents, as Dan Connolly writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Theo Epstein flew to Florida to fire Mike Quade, and then he immediately called Ryne Sandberg to let him know he will not be considered for the Chicago Cubs managerial opening. Dale Sveum and Mike Maddux are among those candidates being considered, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
Terry Francona is the right guy for the St. Louis Cardinals job. St. Louis will start interviewing candidates today.
Dale Sveum interviewed with the Red Sox and says he'd take a more disciplined approach, as Tim Britton writes. Sveum stated his case, as Scott Lauber writes.
Before Theo Epstein left for the Cubs, he and his assistant Ben Cherington had many conversations about managerial candidates. Now Cherington has replaced Epstein and both are looking for managers, so they could be working from very similar lists of candidates.
And Sveum is a known quantity to both Epstein and Cherington; he would seem to be in an excellent position to get his first real shot at managing in the big leagues.
• Peter O'Malley is among those interested in buying the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The sale of the Dodgers creates uncertainty. Lew Wolff says he's not interested in buying the Dodgers. It's time for Bud Selig to do right by the Dodgers, writes Vincent Bonsignore.
Bud Selig should be toasted, writes Bill Dwyre. Major League Baseball stood its ground and eventually the totality of Frank McCourt's financial situation caved in on him, for that, Selig deserves credit. But it should not be forgotten, either, that McCourt was chosen to own the Dodgers despite serious questions about his financial strength.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Arizona Diamondbacks re-signed John McDonald.
2. The San Francisco Giants need to re-sign Carlos Beltran, writes John Shea.
3. The Oakland Athletics haven't made offers to any of their free agents.
4. Josh Byrnes is studying front office candidates, writes Bill Center.
5. The Seattle Mariners are taking a look at the market, writes Larry Larue.
6. The Detroit Tigers could have a dull winter.
7. The Minnesota Twins hired a former Twin as a hitting coach, writes Joe Christensen.
8. The Twins need to fill their needs through free agency, writes John Shipley.
9. Darren O'Day was claimed on waivers.
10. The Texas Rangers made some cuts.
11. The Washington Nationals are closing in on a deal with Chien-Ming Wang.
12. Wrote here the other day that Grady Sizemore could be a great fit with the Nationals; his agent tells Adam Kilgore he's open to anything.
13. The Philadelphia Phillies have many unanswered questions, writes Matt Gelb.
14. The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to begin their offseason shopping, writes Bill Brink.
15. Within this story, there is word that the Red Sox and Cubs have received another week to work out the Theo Epstein compensation issue.
16. The New York Mets have their eyes on Jose Reyes.
17. The Yankees are looking to be smart shoppers.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Jose Bautista was among the Silver Slugger winners.
• Nick Markakis feels like he's getting healthy.
• The Florida Marlins want to ensure smooth traffic and parking at their new ballpark.
• Chip Bailey wonders if a Houston Astros official is getting a free pass.
• The mayor of Chicago hasn't changed his mind on how to revamp Wrigley Field.
• Bryan Stow wrote his own name.
And today will be better than yesterday.
- Sep 7, 2011
- 1,904
- 514
Red Sox old manager Tito is Top person for the cubs manager job according to Theo. Tito could be the cubs next manager
- Sep 7, 2011
- 1,904
- 514
Red Sox old manager Tito is Top person for the cubs manager job according to Theo. Tito could be the cubs next manager
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Correct.
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Correct.
- Status
