DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
Imagine how many championships we'd win if we stopped getting washed up players from Boston.^ probably you guys. you're our dumping ground for washed up players
cry to your FO about it
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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cry to your FO about it
wooster
Banned
- Mar 17, 2014
- 1,087
- 499
Maybe I will once we stop winning every other year.cry to your FO about it
Until then, thanks for everything.
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
"every other year"
never change, yankee fans
never change, yankee fans
- Dec 14, 2004
- 60,034
- 50,948
How many good or great players have we gotten from Bos in the last 10-15?
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Imagine how many championships we'd win if we stopped getting washed up players from Boston.^ probably you guys. you're our dumping ground for washed up players
cry to your FO about it
I'm sure by the middle of July they're going to try and shop his .250 with 9 HRs
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
"every other year"
never change, yankee fans
But he's not a Yankees though
wooster
Banned
- Mar 17, 2014
- 1,087
- 499
Yea, I thought you were taking a shot at us because we traded for Peavy.
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
"every other year"
never change, yankee fans
But he's not a Yankees though
i'm lost then. why's he saying "WE" when we're talking about the yanks?
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
that's sort of what i meant. you guys got damon, youkilis, and ellsbury off the top of my head in recent years.
damon helped win a chip, sort of. but overall, it's been guys on the down swing. we'll see how ellsbury works out, of course. pretty good first year though. worth the money? i'll leave that up for debate after a couple more years.
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Red Sox get premium player at good price.
White Sox bridging a gap with deals.
Sandoval deal a strange move for Boston.
What's next for the Boston Red Sox?
Red Sox positioned for trades.
Top 10 third basemen in MLB.
White Sox's climb boosts AL Central.
Top 10 shortstops in MLB.
I thought Hanley Ramirez might crack the $20 million per year mark given his age, offensive potential and the fact that a "down" year from him still produced 3.5 WAR -- and that's including his atrocious defense at shortstop. Assuming the reported deal goes through OK, the Red Sox seem likely to move him to another position, maybe left field, where his glove shouldn't be a problem and his bat will still profile well. There's a good chance he has two or three years in the next five in which he's much more than an $18 million player.
Ramirez is still a premium offensive player, although 2014 was a weak year for him; he has a visibly slower bat and didn't perform as well against high velocity as the year before. That said, he'll be just 31 in the first year of the deal, quite young to be starting any age-related decline, which is probably what Boston is betting on. That's also probably why they got him on a relatively small deal for such a premium player.
He does everything you'd want at the plate, with a solid, high-contact approach and above-average power. He's also a pretty good athlete, despite what his failings at short might indicate; if he does go to left field, he should be well above average there. Considering how little production the Red Sox got from their outfield in 2014 -- 26 homers in total from all three spots -- this has the potential to be a four- or five-win upgrade if they get a full, healthy season out of Ramirez.
Speaking of his health, that's probably the biggest reason he didn't command $20 million or more a year or get more than five years; he has been banged up the past two seasons, playing 214 games total after playing 140-plus games with 600-plus plate appearances in six of the previous seven seasons. There are also lingering questions about Ramirez's motivation level, whether he always plays at 100 percent effort or … well, really, I don't remember these questions popping up when he was probably the best player in the National League for the second half of 2013, so while it might have a real foundation, it seems to focus too much on the past few months, not on the player Ramirez is likely to be going forward.
As Buster Olney wrote in his blog Monday, this presents the Red Sox with an enormous surfeit of position players. They have a number of young, major league-ready players to deal. Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are probably staying put, but third basemen Garin Cecchini and Will Middlebrooks and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are all cheap and could start for second-division clubs looking to get younger. Allen Craig's contract would likely make him tougher to move, but Yoenis Cespedes has just a year remaining at $10.5 million and should have a strong market.
[+] EnlargeJackie Bradley Jr.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Jackie Bradley Jr., still just 24, developed some bad habits at the plate in 2014.
Bradley is the one player who most interests me of the group; he's a 70 defender in center who hit in the high minors but was promoted to Boston too soon and seemed to change his entire approach. He's a contact hitter with plate discipline, but when he tries to hit for power, his contact rate plummets as he cedes the opposite field entirely. His value is low now, but he's clearly done in Boston, and a team that doesn't expect to contend in 2015 could let him add value in center every day while working on keeping his swing short and his focus on the whole field.
The Dodgers get a compensation pick for losing Ramirez; Boston's first-round pick, at No. 7 overall, is protected, so they lose their second-rounder for the signing. Los Angeles is still short a shortstop at this point (although keeping Ramirez wouldn't have necessarily solved that problem). There also isn't much out there for them in free agency or the trade market. Their internal options are glove-only guys in Erisbel Arruebarrena or Miguel Rojas, so they could try a one-year deal with Stephen Drew to see if he has anything left after his self-immolating 2014, with the glovemen as backup options. But that's probably more downside risk than they'd like to take on.
If, as rumored, the Red Sox also sign Pablo Sandoval, that would mean two third base options for San Francisco were both removed from the market in one fell swoop, with the Padres also potentially in the market for a free agent at the hot corner. Chase Headley's market should pick up quickly once both players have officially signed; he's a very good defender whose projections (via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS) actually exceed Sandoval's, and he'll probably come cheaper. One player I'd love to see any team interested in a third baseman target is Luis Valbuena, who has had a couple of solid years for the Cubs and has two years of control remaining before free agency. The Cubs need pitching, and they have "Ol' Blue Eyes" Kris Bryant ready for the majors right now. Of course, I'm sure the Yankees would be willing to part with Alex Rodriguez at the right price, too.
Ramirez is still a premium offensive player, although 2014 was a weak year for him; he has a visibly slower bat and didn't perform as well against high velocity as the year before. That said, he'll be just 31 in the first year of the deal, quite young to be starting any age-related decline, which is probably what Boston is betting on. That's also probably why they got him on a relatively small deal for such a premium player.
He does everything you'd want at the plate, with a solid, high-contact approach and above-average power. He's also a pretty good athlete, despite what his failings at short might indicate; if he does go to left field, he should be well above average there. Considering how little production the Red Sox got from their outfield in 2014 -- 26 homers in total from all three spots -- this has the potential to be a four- or five-win upgrade if they get a full, healthy season out of Ramirez.
Speaking of his health, that's probably the biggest reason he didn't command $20 million or more a year or get more than five years; he has been banged up the past two seasons, playing 214 games total after playing 140-plus games with 600-plus plate appearances in six of the previous seven seasons. There are also lingering questions about Ramirez's motivation level, whether he always plays at 100 percent effort or … well, really, I don't remember these questions popping up when he was probably the best player in the National League for the second half of 2013, so while it might have a real foundation, it seems to focus too much on the past few months, not on the player Ramirez is likely to be going forward.
As Buster Olney wrote in his blog Monday, this presents the Red Sox with an enormous surfeit of position players. They have a number of young, major league-ready players to deal. Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are probably staying put, but third basemen Garin Cecchini and Will Middlebrooks and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are all cheap and could start for second-division clubs looking to get younger. Allen Craig's contract would likely make him tougher to move, but Yoenis Cespedes has just a year remaining at $10.5 million and should have a strong market.
[+] EnlargeJackie Bradley Jr.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Jackie Bradley Jr., still just 24, developed some bad habits at the plate in 2014.
Bradley is the one player who most interests me of the group; he's a 70 defender in center who hit in the high minors but was promoted to Boston too soon and seemed to change his entire approach. He's a contact hitter with plate discipline, but when he tries to hit for power, his contact rate plummets as he cedes the opposite field entirely. His value is low now, but he's clearly done in Boston, and a team that doesn't expect to contend in 2015 could let him add value in center every day while working on keeping his swing short and his focus on the whole field.
The Dodgers get a compensation pick for losing Ramirez; Boston's first-round pick, at No. 7 overall, is protected, so they lose their second-rounder for the signing. Los Angeles is still short a shortstop at this point (although keeping Ramirez wouldn't have necessarily solved that problem). There also isn't much out there for them in free agency or the trade market. Their internal options are glove-only guys in Erisbel Arruebarrena or Miguel Rojas, so they could try a one-year deal with Stephen Drew to see if he has anything left after his self-immolating 2014, with the glovemen as backup options. But that's probably more downside risk than they'd like to take on.
If, as rumored, the Red Sox also sign Pablo Sandoval, that would mean two third base options for San Francisco were both removed from the market in one fell swoop, with the Padres also potentially in the market for a free agent at the hot corner. Chase Headley's market should pick up quickly once both players have officially signed; he's a very good defender whose projections (via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS) actually exceed Sandoval's, and he'll probably come cheaper. One player I'd love to see any team interested in a third baseman target is Luis Valbuena, who has had a couple of solid years for the Cubs and has two years of control remaining before free agency. The Cubs need pitching, and they have "Ol' Blue Eyes" Kris Bryant ready for the majors right now. Of course, I'm sure the Yankees would be willing to part with Alex Rodriguez at the right price, too.
White Sox bridging a gap with deals.
The White Sox made two modest signings late last week, landing first baseman Adam LaRoche for two years, $25 million, and left-handed reliever Zach Duke for three years, $15 million. LaRoche fits well as a platoon DH/first baseman who can give Jose Abreu some time off at first and keep the latter's legs strong. He can hit right-handed pitching, but struggles against lefties and could probably use a right-handed caddie.
The White Sox' lineup had become quite right-handed, with Adam Eaton the only left-handed hitter certain to be in their starting nine on Opening Day 2015, so LaRoche gives them some needed balance, but they're paying him to be an everyday player when his .201/.269/.325 line against lefties the past two seasons indicates he's a part-timer.
Duke's three-year deal is a payout for one good season, albeit his first in a full-time relief role. Duke was released by the Nationals in mid-2013, then let go by the Reds after the season, and signed with Milwaukee in January with a career 4.57 ERA in more than 1,100 innings, all in the National League. In his defense, and in defense of the deal, he was a completely different animal in the Brewers' pen, becoming a sinker (two-seamer)-slider-curveball guy, generating ground balls (not new) but also missing some bats with all three pitches (very new). He wasn't just a specialist either, with comparable OBP/SLG allowed lines to lefties and righties.
But it's one year of data, in the National League, for a guy who had a history of just not being very good at all, now moving to the DH league and to a homer-friendly ballpark. My guess is that the length of the deal and use of the roster spot burns them before the modest overpayment does.
The two moves do help cover the team's biggest issue right now, a lack of major league-ready players coming out of its farm system. Stronger drafts the past two years help, but it'll take a few more to restock the system, and even the best prospects -- lefty Carlos Rodon, right-hander Francelis Montas, shortstop Tim Anderson -- will probably spend most or all of 2015 in the minors. I don't love the cost of LaRoche or the length of Duke's deal, but the White Sox needed some veterans to bridge the gap until the kids arrive, at which point this team will be well-positioned to contend again.
Oakland adds a bat
From my free-agent capsule on Billy Butler, which was one of the last ones I wrote because I thought there was a non-zero chance the Royals would pick up his option (even if just to trade him):
He'd be a great one-year flier for someone at $6-7 million, if he's willing to try to head back into free agency next winter off a better season, but I expect he'll get a few offers at closer to $9-10 million a year over two to three years. To make those deals work, that career-worst HR/flyball rate he just posted has to be a fluke, not a harbinger of an early fade.
The A's seem to believe in the last sentence there, that Butler's hit tool hasn't atrophied, but that this was his Mike-Lowell-2005 season -- and I'm inclined to agree. He would have seen a much stronger market a year ago, and even in the down 2014 season, he still raked against lefties, made contact at a rate consistent with his career rates, and continued to use the opposite field well.
They're paying him to be less than the player he was before 2014, and more than the player he was this past season, on a deal that, like LaRoche's, is shorter than what we'd expect for an everyday player, especially one as young as Butler, who'll play at ages 29-31 in the three years of the contract. If he just gets back to 2013's level, it'll be a reasonable deal for the A's, making them a win or so better, but it doesn't do much to address the lack of offense they received from their outfield in 2014; nothing would do as much for this team as Josh Reddick continuing the performance he had in the second half, when he was finally healthy and appeared to be the player he was back in 2012 again.
Their logjam at first base and DH was slightly exacerbated by the acquisition of Ike Davis from Pittsburgh for some budget space in the July 2 international free-agent pool. (It was a no-brainer for the Pirates, who probably would have non-tendered Davis next month, and who have done extremely well in the July 2 market in recent years.)
Davis actually had a solid year for the Pirates after they picked him up from the Mets. He gets on base against righties, and I still think there's more power in there than he's shown, so some team has to see some value in playing him two-thirds of the time and ensuring he never faces a left-handed pitcher.
The move gives Oakland some flexibility to pursue a trade of one of their outfield/first-base types, perhaps Reddick or Brandon Moss, to see if they can shore up a more critical hole, such as shortstop or second base.
The White Sox' lineup had become quite right-handed, with Adam Eaton the only left-handed hitter certain to be in their starting nine on Opening Day 2015, so LaRoche gives them some needed balance, but they're paying him to be an everyday player when his .201/.269/.325 line against lefties the past two seasons indicates he's a part-timer.
Duke's three-year deal is a payout for one good season, albeit his first in a full-time relief role. Duke was released by the Nationals in mid-2013, then let go by the Reds after the season, and signed with Milwaukee in January with a career 4.57 ERA in more than 1,100 innings, all in the National League. In his defense, and in defense of the deal, he was a completely different animal in the Brewers' pen, becoming a sinker (two-seamer)-slider-curveball guy, generating ground balls (not new) but also missing some bats with all three pitches (very new). He wasn't just a specialist either, with comparable OBP/SLG allowed lines to lefties and righties.
But it's one year of data, in the National League, for a guy who had a history of just not being very good at all, now moving to the DH league and to a homer-friendly ballpark. My guess is that the length of the deal and use of the roster spot burns them before the modest overpayment does.
The two moves do help cover the team's biggest issue right now, a lack of major league-ready players coming out of its farm system. Stronger drafts the past two years help, but it'll take a few more to restock the system, and even the best prospects -- lefty Carlos Rodon, right-hander Francelis Montas, shortstop Tim Anderson -- will probably spend most or all of 2015 in the minors. I don't love the cost of LaRoche or the length of Duke's deal, but the White Sox needed some veterans to bridge the gap until the kids arrive, at which point this team will be well-positioned to contend again.
Oakland adds a bat
From my free-agent capsule on Billy Butler, which was one of the last ones I wrote because I thought there was a non-zero chance the Royals would pick up his option (even if just to trade him):
He'd be a great one-year flier for someone at $6-7 million, if he's willing to try to head back into free agency next winter off a better season, but I expect he'll get a few offers at closer to $9-10 million a year over two to three years. To make those deals work, that career-worst HR/flyball rate he just posted has to be a fluke, not a harbinger of an early fade.
The A's seem to believe in the last sentence there, that Butler's hit tool hasn't atrophied, but that this was his Mike-Lowell-2005 season -- and I'm inclined to agree. He would have seen a much stronger market a year ago, and even in the down 2014 season, he still raked against lefties, made contact at a rate consistent with his career rates, and continued to use the opposite field well.
They're paying him to be less than the player he was before 2014, and more than the player he was this past season, on a deal that, like LaRoche's, is shorter than what we'd expect for an everyday player, especially one as young as Butler, who'll play at ages 29-31 in the three years of the contract. If he just gets back to 2013's level, it'll be a reasonable deal for the A's, making them a win or so better, but it doesn't do much to address the lack of offense they received from their outfield in 2014; nothing would do as much for this team as Josh Reddick continuing the performance he had in the second half, when he was finally healthy and appeared to be the player he was back in 2012 again.
Their logjam at first base and DH was slightly exacerbated by the acquisition of Ike Davis from Pittsburgh for some budget space in the July 2 international free-agent pool. (It was a no-brainer for the Pirates, who probably would have non-tendered Davis next month, and who have done extremely well in the July 2 market in recent years.)
Davis actually had a solid year for the Pirates after they picked him up from the Mets. He gets on base against righties, and I still think there's more power in there than he's shown, so some team has to see some value in playing him two-thirds of the time and ensuring he never faces a left-handed pitcher.
The move gives Oakland some flexibility to pursue a trade of one of their outfield/first-base types, perhaps Reddick or Brandon Moss, to see if they can shore up a more critical hole, such as shortstop or second base.
Sandoval deal a strange move for Boston.
The Boston Red Sox produced all these position-player prospects, and the moment most of them were ready for the majors they have now gone and signed two of the best free-agent position players on the market, Hanley Ramirez and now Pablo Sandoval. I'm not even sure it's a bad move, but it is awfully strange.
Too much coverage of Sandoval focuses on his weight, when his skill set, while uncommon today, makes him a valuable player most of the time. He has great bat speed and plate coverage, rarely striking out and using the whole field well, just not hitting for the power we expect from most third basemen. He's an average to slightly above-average third baseman, with fringy range but good hands and a plus arm.
The difference between him and a star-caliber player at third is probably five to 10 homers a year, and I think the power is in there physically; his approach just doesn't allow for it, as he prefers to go the other way and hit line drives. At 29, he's in his offensive peak years now, albeit not for much longer, so it's not outrageous to think he'll at least hold serve for most of this contract.
The problem with this contract is its size, particularly in dollars, which reflects a rather positive forecast for Sandoval's performance going forward -- that he'll stay at third base, not lose any defense and outperform a realistic/median projection for his offense, especially his power. In other words, the Red Sox are paying him like he's going to hit about 20 bombs a year without losing anything else, and while I think that's possible, I don't think it's likely. This seems like a contract that won't kill the Red Sox, but won't live up to expectations.
Boston's shift to signing free-agent position players -- ones close to their prime years, at least – is particularly shocking given the Red Sox’s decade-long emphasis on drafting and development, a process that has led to another burst of young talent on the cusp of major league production. I mentioned in the analysis of Ramirez's signing that this gives the team a surplus from which to trade for pitching help; there isn't a player available in a trade whom the Red Sox couldn't pay for in young talent.
If you're going to do this, at least do it in a year when your first pick is protected, which Boston's is; they'll pick seventh in next June's rule 4 (first-year player) draft, then won't pick again until the fourth round, limiting their overall bonus pool and hampering their ability to negotiate after Day 1 to grab a player early on Day 2. It's a minor cost for a team with Boston's overall resources, but a cost nonetheless.
The San Francisco Giants are now left without a third baseman, and one of the two best alternatives on the market is also gone in Ramirez. The best remaining third baseman available is Chase Headley, an excellent defender of modest offensive ability, able to get on base at a decent clip without any more power than Sandoval has shown. They could try to match up with Boston for one of its young third basemen, or go after the Cubs' Luis Valbuena, or in theory Texas' Adrian Beltre (although the Rangers have shown no inclination to trade Beltre before his walk year). None of these options is as appealing as retaining Sandoval, but I can't blame them for walking away at the price the Red Sox paid, either.
Too much coverage of Sandoval focuses on his weight, when his skill set, while uncommon today, makes him a valuable player most of the time. He has great bat speed and plate coverage, rarely striking out and using the whole field well, just not hitting for the power we expect from most third basemen. He's an average to slightly above-average third baseman, with fringy range but good hands and a plus arm.
The difference between him and a star-caliber player at third is probably five to 10 homers a year, and I think the power is in there physically; his approach just doesn't allow for it, as he prefers to go the other way and hit line drives. At 29, he's in his offensive peak years now, albeit not for much longer, so it's not outrageous to think he'll at least hold serve for most of this contract.
The problem with this contract is its size, particularly in dollars, which reflects a rather positive forecast for Sandoval's performance going forward -- that he'll stay at third base, not lose any defense and outperform a realistic/median projection for his offense, especially his power. In other words, the Red Sox are paying him like he's going to hit about 20 bombs a year without losing anything else, and while I think that's possible, I don't think it's likely. This seems like a contract that won't kill the Red Sox, but won't live up to expectations.
Boston's shift to signing free-agent position players -- ones close to their prime years, at least – is particularly shocking given the Red Sox’s decade-long emphasis on drafting and development, a process that has led to another burst of young talent on the cusp of major league production. I mentioned in the analysis of Ramirez's signing that this gives the team a surplus from which to trade for pitching help; there isn't a player available in a trade whom the Red Sox couldn't pay for in young talent.
If you're going to do this, at least do it in a year when your first pick is protected, which Boston's is; they'll pick seventh in next June's rule 4 (first-year player) draft, then won't pick again until the fourth round, limiting their overall bonus pool and hampering their ability to negotiate after Day 1 to grab a player early on Day 2. It's a minor cost for a team with Boston's overall resources, but a cost nonetheless.
The San Francisco Giants are now left without a third baseman, and one of the two best alternatives on the market is also gone in Ramirez. The best remaining third baseman available is Chase Headley, an excellent defender of modest offensive ability, able to get on base at a decent clip without any more power than Sandoval has shown. They could try to match up with Boston for one of its young third basemen, or go after the Cubs' Luis Valbuena, or in theory Texas' Adrian Beltre (although the Rangers have shown no inclination to trade Beltre before his walk year). None of these options is as appealing as retaining Sandoval, but I can't blame them for walking away at the price the Red Sox paid, either.
What's next for the Boston Red Sox?
After reportedly agreeing to terms with both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, the Boston Red Sox can now turn their attention to the area of the team that has been their biggest need all along: their starting rotation.
And the signings of Sandoval and Ramirez don't hinder that, they help it.
The Sox have now positioned themselves perfectly to negotiate the biggest trade of this offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies to land left-handed starter Cole Hamels while still having enough resources for a reunion with Jon Lester or sending in the welcome wagon to James Shields. Or they could make another deal or two, landing a Hisashi Iwakuma from the Seattle Mariners, Tyson Ross from the San Diego Padres or Mat Latos from the Cincinnati Reds. If -- or should I say when? -- the Red Sox acquire two top-of-the-rotation starters, they will be positioned to go from last to first again.
The Sandoval and Ramirez signings now give the Red Sox enough depth to listen to offers for position players Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Deven Marrero, Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley Jr. They also have pitching prospects, such as Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson and Matt Barnes, who can be included in deals. With that many quality players available to deal -- certainly some combination of the above names will be enough to get Hamels -- it's only a matter of time before they have a formidable rotation. The Red Sox now don't have to trade Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts, but if they must give up one of them to land Hamels, it won't hurt as much now.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The Red Sox should still have enough in their coffers to bring back Jon Lester.
Lester is next on their priority list, and the Red Sox front office believes the signings of Sandoval and Ramirez can only help persuade Lester to return to Fenway rather than him being tempted by the offers from the Cubs, Cardinals, Braves and others. Lester was comfortable in Boston, and it always has been perceived to be his first choice. He might have to take a year less on his contract, but he might not mind that as much following the Ramirez and Sandoval signings.
With the Red Sox's first-round selection protected because it's in the top 10, they realize this is the ideal year to sign all their top-tier free agents. They're certainly not done at Sandoval and Ramirez; one of the free-agent starting pitchers is next.
I'd like to see the team keep Cespedes, who is believed to be on the trade block. A lineup including Ramirez, Sandoval, Cespedes and of course Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and others, would be really fun to watch. But because it's unlikely the Red Sox will sign Cespedes long term, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the one traded to the Mariners, Padres, Reds or Phillies to land one of the starters mentioned above.
Could the Red Sox get three starters to go with Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly? Of course they can, because they have the financial wherewithal and talent in their system to trade. Ideally they make these three moves:
1. Re-sign Lester.
2. Trade a package of prospects for Hamels.
3. Trade Cespedes for another starting pitcher.
The Red Sox lineup is now much better, but they're not even going to contend unless they completely revamp the top of their starting rotation with at least two elite starters. To call Sandoval and Ramirez the appetizer seems absurd, but if they don't get the entrée (two starting pitchers), there's no way this proud franchise can bring home another title.
And the signings of Sandoval and Ramirez don't hinder that, they help it.
The Sox have now positioned themselves perfectly to negotiate the biggest trade of this offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies to land left-handed starter Cole Hamels while still having enough resources for a reunion with Jon Lester or sending in the welcome wagon to James Shields. Or they could make another deal or two, landing a Hisashi Iwakuma from the Seattle Mariners, Tyson Ross from the San Diego Padres or Mat Latos from the Cincinnati Reds. If -- or should I say when? -- the Red Sox acquire two top-of-the-rotation starters, they will be positioned to go from last to first again.
The Sandoval and Ramirez signings now give the Red Sox enough depth to listen to offers for position players Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Deven Marrero, Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley Jr. They also have pitching prospects, such as Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson and Matt Barnes, who can be included in deals. With that many quality players available to deal -- certainly some combination of the above names will be enough to get Hamels -- it's only a matter of time before they have a formidable rotation. The Red Sox now don't have to trade Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts, but if they must give up one of them to land Hamels, it won't hurt as much now.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The Red Sox should still have enough in their coffers to bring back Jon Lester.
Lester is next on their priority list, and the Red Sox front office believes the signings of Sandoval and Ramirez can only help persuade Lester to return to Fenway rather than him being tempted by the offers from the Cubs, Cardinals, Braves and others. Lester was comfortable in Boston, and it always has been perceived to be his first choice. He might have to take a year less on his contract, but he might not mind that as much following the Ramirez and Sandoval signings.
With the Red Sox's first-round selection protected because it's in the top 10, they realize this is the ideal year to sign all their top-tier free agents. They're certainly not done at Sandoval and Ramirez; one of the free-agent starting pitchers is next.
I'd like to see the team keep Cespedes, who is believed to be on the trade block. A lineup including Ramirez, Sandoval, Cespedes and of course Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and others, would be really fun to watch. But because it's unlikely the Red Sox will sign Cespedes long term, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the one traded to the Mariners, Padres, Reds or Phillies to land one of the starters mentioned above.
Could the Red Sox get three starters to go with Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly? Of course they can, because they have the financial wherewithal and talent in their system to trade. Ideally they make these three moves:
1. Re-sign Lester.
2. Trade a package of prospects for Hamels.
3. Trade Cespedes for another starting pitcher.
The Red Sox lineup is now much better, but they're not even going to contend unless they completely revamp the top of their starting rotation with at least two elite starters. To call Sandoval and Ramirez the appetizer seems absurd, but if they don't get the entrée (two starting pitchers), there's no way this proud franchise can bring home another title.
Red Sox positioned for trades.
Finding pitching these days is like going to a flush farmers’ market looking for corn on the cob: There’s lots and lots available, and really only a matter of what price you want to pay and who you want to buy from.
[+] EnlargeHanley Ramirez
Jayne Kamin/USA TODAY Sports
With Hanley Ramirez on board the Red Sox have a surplus of infielders from which to deal.
On the other hand, elite hitters are scarce, which is why the Red Sox landed Pablo Sandoval even after getting a deal done with Hanley Ramirez. Assuming i’s are dotted and t’s crossed, the Red Sox will sign the two best hitters in the free-agent market, which is like buying up all the wheat in the Plains states (in keeping with the farmers' market theme).
Questions are attached to Ramirez, for sure: about his defense, about the mood swings that some Dodgers teammates saw and weren’t happy about. He has missed a ton of games because of injury -- 185 over the last four seasons, in fact. But the Red Sox are certainly aware of all that, but apparently care about the bottom lines of production: An .852 OPS in games outside of Dodger Stadium last season, after posting 1.061 in road games in 2013.
Possessing good hitters is like holding gold, and the Red Sox have a stack of commodities from which to deal.
We’ll get to the surplus momentarily. The balance in the Red Sox lineup is much better now that they've land the Panda as well as Ramirez, who sources say will be used in left field, with Sandoval installed at third:
CF -- Mookie Betts (bats right)
2B -- Dustin Pedroia (R)
DH -- David Ortiz (L)
LF -- Ramirez (R)
3B -- Sandoval (S)
1B -- Mike Napoli (R)
RF -- Rusney Castillo (R)
C -- Christian Vazquez (R)
SS -- Xander Bogaerts (R)
Not listed in that lineup: Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley Jr., Will Middlebrooks and Garin Cecchini -- all of whom have varying degrees of value to the Red Sox, or in trade. Just as Cubs president Theo Epstein has a stockpile of position players to talk about in any potential trade, Boston general manager Ben Cherington will be loaded with pieces to discuss in possible deals for pitching.
Yoenis Cespedes: The Red Sox could hold him and work to place him in right field. But of all the players who could be Boston surplus, he could be the most likely to move, with just a year remaining before he reaches free agency; he’s set to make $10.5 million in 2015. Cespedes, the two-time Home Run Derby champion, has big-time power, but the Red Sox experienced the same type of production that eventually prompted the Oakland front office to move him -- a low on-base percentage (.301 in 2014) and an outsized strikeout rate (48 in 201 plate appearances). For a team looking for a one-year infusion of power, such as Seattle or Cincinnati, Cespedes could be an attractive target.
Shane Victorino: He’s owed $13 million for the upcoming season, but he’s coming back from a fusion of two disks in his back and turns 34 later this week. Nobody knows what kind of player he will be moving forward, which probably leaves the Red Sox with one of two choices: Dump Victorino’s contract while eating the vast majority of the dollars, or wait to see how he progresses in his rehabilitation. In a case of sunk cost, waiting to see if he becomes a right-field option again next season could make more sense.
Brock Holt: Red Sox manager John Farrell lauded Holt at season’s end, talking about how he earned the right to hit leadoff and play daily. But a lot of evaluators believe Holt is better-suited as a utility guy, filling in at any one of seven positions, depending on the needs of a given day.
[+] EnlargeNapoli
AP Photo/Chris O'Meara
Mike Napoli's deal would make dealing him a relatively easy option.
Mike Napoli : The first baseman has one year remaining on the two-year deal he signed last winter, and will make $16 million. Napoli has turned himself into an adept first baseman, and the Red Sox could always keep him. But with so little big-time power available in the market, the Red Sox could also dangle Napoli and open up first base for others -- Craig, perhaps, or a platoon of Nava and Craig.
Daniel Nava: He doesn’t hit for big power, but he has shown he can play first base, left field and right field, and he’s a switch-hitter with a high on-base percentage. Last season, Nava had a .372 on-base percentage vs. right-handers, after having a .411 on-base percentage vs. righties in 2013. Nava will be eligible for arbitration this winter for the first time, so he’ll still be relatively cheap -- which could make him more attractive in the market, or could be a reason for the Red Sox to keep him. Considering Boston’s need for left-handed balance to its stack of right-handed hitters, and Nava’s positional versatility, retaining him is a strong option.
Allen Craig: An All-Star in 2013, evaluators were convinced he was greatly affected by the foot injury he suffered near the end of the ’13 season. Craig batted .215 overall, and only .128 in 107 plate appearances for Boston after he was acquired in the trade with St. Louis. Craig is owed $25.5 million for the next three seasons, and if the Red Sox want to move him now, they would probably have to account for some of that money in a deal because of all the questions about whether Craig will return to being the same great hitter he was with the Cardinals.
But he has experience at first base, at third, in right and left, and depending on what else the Red Sox do, he could help them adjust. If Boston is going to extract value from Craig, its best bet might be to keep him and wait to see if he can rebound. At the moment, his trade value is at absolute low tide.
Will Middlebrooks: His primary talent is considered to be his power, but he hit just two homers in 234 plate appearances last season. The Red Sox informed other teams that they have no intention of simply giving him away and would be willing to keep him on their Triple-A roster in 2015 to see if he can eventually lay off the breaking ball away. However, Middlebrooks could be used as a secondary piece to round out a trade.
Jackie Bradley Jr.: The Red Sox haven’t necessarily moved on from the talented outfielder, but he has lost his place in the pecking order with each of the moves made by Boston since the All-Star break: the promotion of Mookie Betts, who thrived; the signing of Rusney Castillo; the impending signing of Ramirez. Bradley is 24 years old, so it’s not as if he’s washed up, but besides his lack of production last season -- he had a .198 average and a .531 OPS -- some evaluators developed doubt about whether he can make adjustments game to game, at-bat to at-bat. Bradley is a dominant defensive player, a shutdown center fielder, and it’s possible he could have a role as an extra outfielder for Boston next season. But it would also seem possible that the Red Sox could stow him away in the minors and wait to see if his offense develops, or market him to a team looking for outfield defense.
Bradley's stock has dropped markedly in the last two seasons, but the good thing for Cherington is that he has a veritable buffet line of options to dangle as he considers one of the many pitchers available in trade.
To review: Doug Fister is available, and so, too, is Jordan Zimmermann, and Cole Hamels, and Mike Leake, Mat Latos, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Simon, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, maybe Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello. And others.
However the Red Sox emerge from their winter work, Boston will almost certainly have a lineup with more power, more run production, than in 2013. Cherington already had a lot of flexibility, and now he’s about to buy some more.
Notables
• More on Ramirez: From ESPN Stats & Info: "In his career, Ramirez has had full seasons at both shortstop and third base. He might even move to the outfield. He would be a big offensive upgrade for the Red Sox. In the 2014 season, the combined performances of the Red Sox’s third basemen and shortstops ranked near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories, including last in batting average, 28th in OBP and 27th in slugging.
"Ramirez was among the MLB leaders in these same offensive categories last season. Among qualifying players to play at least 100 games at shortstop or third base, Ramirez ranked ninth in batting average (.280), third in on-base percentage (.363) and eighth in slugging percentage (.447)."
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Oakland traded for Ike Davis.
2. The Blue Jays are in the Melky Cabrera hunt.
3. The Diamondbacks have started interviewing candidates for the job of scouting director.
4. The Padres have submitted their All-Star Game bid.
NL Central
• The Pirates are 1-for-2 in their offseason decisions.
NL West
• The Rockies are destined to lose again if they don’t upgrade their rotation.
AL Central
• The Tigers are comfortable with their bullpen.
• The Twins’ TV ratings have dropped.
AL West
• The Rangers bid on a pitcher from Korea.
Lastly
• There’s a whole lot of posturing going on in the Yasmany Tomas negotiations. Now that Sandoval has signed elsewhere, San Francisco will turn its attention to Tomas.
• A third try at Hall of Fame election is coming up for Craig Biggio.
And today will be better than yesterday.
[+] EnlargeHanley Ramirez
Jayne Kamin/USA TODAY Sports
With Hanley Ramirez on board the Red Sox have a surplus of infielders from which to deal.
On the other hand, elite hitters are scarce, which is why the Red Sox landed Pablo Sandoval even after getting a deal done with Hanley Ramirez. Assuming i’s are dotted and t’s crossed, the Red Sox will sign the two best hitters in the free-agent market, which is like buying up all the wheat in the Plains states (in keeping with the farmers' market theme).
Questions are attached to Ramirez, for sure: about his defense, about the mood swings that some Dodgers teammates saw and weren’t happy about. He has missed a ton of games because of injury -- 185 over the last four seasons, in fact. But the Red Sox are certainly aware of all that, but apparently care about the bottom lines of production: An .852 OPS in games outside of Dodger Stadium last season, after posting 1.061 in road games in 2013.
Possessing good hitters is like holding gold, and the Red Sox have a stack of commodities from which to deal.
We’ll get to the surplus momentarily. The balance in the Red Sox lineup is much better now that they've land the Panda as well as Ramirez, who sources say will be used in left field, with Sandoval installed at third:
CF -- Mookie Betts (bats right)
2B -- Dustin Pedroia (R)
DH -- David Ortiz (L)
LF -- Ramirez (R)
3B -- Sandoval (S)
1B -- Mike Napoli (R)
RF -- Rusney Castillo (R)
C -- Christian Vazquez (R)
SS -- Xander Bogaerts (R)
Not listed in that lineup: Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley Jr., Will Middlebrooks and Garin Cecchini -- all of whom have varying degrees of value to the Red Sox, or in trade. Just as Cubs president Theo Epstein has a stockpile of position players to talk about in any potential trade, Boston general manager Ben Cherington will be loaded with pieces to discuss in possible deals for pitching.
Yoenis Cespedes: The Red Sox could hold him and work to place him in right field. But of all the players who could be Boston surplus, he could be the most likely to move, with just a year remaining before he reaches free agency; he’s set to make $10.5 million in 2015. Cespedes, the two-time Home Run Derby champion, has big-time power, but the Red Sox experienced the same type of production that eventually prompted the Oakland front office to move him -- a low on-base percentage (.301 in 2014) and an outsized strikeout rate (48 in 201 plate appearances). For a team looking for a one-year infusion of power, such as Seattle or Cincinnati, Cespedes could be an attractive target.
Shane Victorino: He’s owed $13 million for the upcoming season, but he’s coming back from a fusion of two disks in his back and turns 34 later this week. Nobody knows what kind of player he will be moving forward, which probably leaves the Red Sox with one of two choices: Dump Victorino’s contract while eating the vast majority of the dollars, or wait to see how he progresses in his rehabilitation. In a case of sunk cost, waiting to see if he becomes a right-field option again next season could make more sense.
Brock Holt: Red Sox manager John Farrell lauded Holt at season’s end, talking about how he earned the right to hit leadoff and play daily. But a lot of evaluators believe Holt is better-suited as a utility guy, filling in at any one of seven positions, depending on the needs of a given day.
[+] EnlargeNapoli
AP Photo/Chris O'Meara
Mike Napoli's deal would make dealing him a relatively easy option.
Mike Napoli : The first baseman has one year remaining on the two-year deal he signed last winter, and will make $16 million. Napoli has turned himself into an adept first baseman, and the Red Sox could always keep him. But with so little big-time power available in the market, the Red Sox could also dangle Napoli and open up first base for others -- Craig, perhaps, or a platoon of Nava and Craig.
Daniel Nava: He doesn’t hit for big power, but he has shown he can play first base, left field and right field, and he’s a switch-hitter with a high on-base percentage. Last season, Nava had a .372 on-base percentage vs. right-handers, after having a .411 on-base percentage vs. righties in 2013. Nava will be eligible for arbitration this winter for the first time, so he’ll still be relatively cheap -- which could make him more attractive in the market, or could be a reason for the Red Sox to keep him. Considering Boston’s need for left-handed balance to its stack of right-handed hitters, and Nava’s positional versatility, retaining him is a strong option.
Allen Craig: An All-Star in 2013, evaluators were convinced he was greatly affected by the foot injury he suffered near the end of the ’13 season. Craig batted .215 overall, and only .128 in 107 plate appearances for Boston after he was acquired in the trade with St. Louis. Craig is owed $25.5 million for the next three seasons, and if the Red Sox want to move him now, they would probably have to account for some of that money in a deal because of all the questions about whether Craig will return to being the same great hitter he was with the Cardinals.
But he has experience at first base, at third, in right and left, and depending on what else the Red Sox do, he could help them adjust. If Boston is going to extract value from Craig, its best bet might be to keep him and wait to see if he can rebound. At the moment, his trade value is at absolute low tide.
Will Middlebrooks: His primary talent is considered to be his power, but he hit just two homers in 234 plate appearances last season. The Red Sox informed other teams that they have no intention of simply giving him away and would be willing to keep him on their Triple-A roster in 2015 to see if he can eventually lay off the breaking ball away. However, Middlebrooks could be used as a secondary piece to round out a trade.
Jackie Bradley Jr.: The Red Sox haven’t necessarily moved on from the talented outfielder, but he has lost his place in the pecking order with each of the moves made by Boston since the All-Star break: the promotion of Mookie Betts, who thrived; the signing of Rusney Castillo; the impending signing of Ramirez. Bradley is 24 years old, so it’s not as if he’s washed up, but besides his lack of production last season -- he had a .198 average and a .531 OPS -- some evaluators developed doubt about whether he can make adjustments game to game, at-bat to at-bat. Bradley is a dominant defensive player, a shutdown center fielder, and it’s possible he could have a role as an extra outfielder for Boston next season. But it would also seem possible that the Red Sox could stow him away in the minors and wait to see if his offense develops, or market him to a team looking for outfield defense.
Bradley's stock has dropped markedly in the last two seasons, but the good thing for Cherington is that he has a veritable buffet line of options to dangle as he considers one of the many pitchers available in trade.
To review: Doug Fister is available, and so, too, is Jordan Zimmermann, and Cole Hamels, and Mike Leake, Mat Latos, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Simon, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, maybe Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello. And others.
However the Red Sox emerge from their winter work, Boston will almost certainly have a lineup with more power, more run production, than in 2013. Cherington already had a lot of flexibility, and now he’s about to buy some more.
Notables
• More on Ramirez: From ESPN Stats & Info: "In his career, Ramirez has had full seasons at both shortstop and third base. He might even move to the outfield. He would be a big offensive upgrade for the Red Sox. In the 2014 season, the combined performances of the Red Sox’s third basemen and shortstops ranked near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories, including last in batting average, 28th in OBP and 27th in slugging.
"Ramirez was among the MLB leaders in these same offensive categories last season. Among qualifying players to play at least 100 games at shortstop or third base, Ramirez ranked ninth in batting average (.280), third in on-base percentage (.363) and eighth in slugging percentage (.447)."
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Oakland traded for Ike Davis.
2. The Blue Jays are in the Melky Cabrera hunt.
3. The Diamondbacks have started interviewing candidates for the job of scouting director.
4. The Padres have submitted their All-Star Game bid.
NL Central
• The Pirates are 1-for-2 in their offseason decisions.
NL West
• The Rockies are destined to lose again if they don’t upgrade their rotation.
AL Central
• The Tigers are comfortable with their bullpen.
• The Twins’ TV ratings have dropped.
AL West
• The Rangers bid on a pitcher from Korea.
Lastly
• There’s a whole lot of posturing going on in the Yasmany Tomas negotiations. Now that Sandoval has signed elsewhere, San Francisco will turn its attention to Tomas.
• A third try at Hall of Fame election is coming up for Craig Biggio.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Top 10 third basemen in MLB.
In keeping with our recent theme of ranking the top 10 players at each position in baseball, today we tackle third basemen.
Unlike second base and shortstop, two other positions we've recently rated, third base is stacked. (We've also gone through first basemen and catchers thus far.)
The top 10 third basemen in MLB:
1. Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
It’s not clear yet whether Oakland can contend in 2015, or whether the Athletics will soon go through another round of rebuilding. But they have told other teams that Donaldson is not being traded this winter -- and who could blame them, based on his performance the past two seasons?
Donaldson shocked rival evaluators with his adept defensive transition from catcher to third, and during the past two seasons, Donaldson has 53 homers, 152 walks and 191 RBIs. He turns 29 in December, and if the Athletics ever decide to move him, they could get a whole lot of value in return.
2. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
When Rendon was in college, scouts were struck by how calm he was in his plate appearances, how much command he seemed to have in his at-bats. In his first full season in the big leagues, he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting after reaching base 239 times and scoring 111 runs, with 39 doubles, six triples and 21 homers.
At age 24, he’s only just begun.
3. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Evaluators say his exceptional defense of past years has slipped, understandable given the fact that he just finished his 17th season in the big leagues. But Beltre continues to be a beast at the plate, hitting .324 with 53 extra-base hits last season.
It appears he has more than a legit shot at 3,000 hits: Beltre stands at 2,604, along with 395 homers, 528 doubles and 1,256 runs. The Hall of Fame? That’s a done deal.
4. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
He put in a lot of work on pre-pitch preparation and greatly improved his defense, for which he was rewarded with the AL Gold Glove for 2014. He took advantage of the chances that were created in having Robinson Cano hit in front of him, driving in 97 runs, with 56 extra-base hits.
Seager finished 15th in the majors in WAR in 2014.
5. Pablo Sandoval, free agent
Focus on all the downside of the Panda, if you’d prefer -- the past conditioning issues, the good-but-not-great regular-season production. But the bidding that is going on right now for his services demonstrates just how much his particular skills are valued -- apparently the Panda is an endangered species in baseball’s evolution, as a third baseman who can hit with left-handed power. (Sandoval, of course, is a switch-hitter.)
His next contract may climb over $100 million, and he’s capable of good defense and carrying a middle-of-the-order spot. Plus, he’s got that knack for the October stage.
6. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
He reached base 265 times last season, and while his extra-base-hit production dipped during the regular season, he demonstrated in the postseason that he’s fully capable of loading up and driving the ball. Carpenter had eight extra-base hits (four doubles and four homers) in 39 plate appearances against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in October, and he showed time and again how difficult he is to pitch to because of the ferocity of his at-bats; he just does not give in.
Carpenter averaged 4.37 pitches per plate appearance during the regular season, best in the NL, and drew a league-high 95 walks. His epic at-bats against Clayton Kershaw in the past two postseasons should be shown to minor leaguers as models of focus and fight in the batter’s box.
7. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Before he got hurt on May 23, it seemed Arenado was generating one or two Web Gems daily. He had good numbers at the plate, too, hitting .287 with 34 doubles, two triples and 18 homers in 111 games (although his home/road splits, as with so many other Colorado players, are eye-catching, with an OPS difference of more than 200 points).
The only reason he’s not higher on this list is that he doesn’t have as much of a track record: He's still just 23 years old and hasn’t played more than 133 games in a season.
8. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
He’s had two unusual knee injuries the past two seasons, on two unusual plays -- the most recent being a collapse in the batter’s box while swinging -- and this certainly makes you wonder whether he’ll be able to stay healthy. But when he has, he’s been among the most dominant defenders in the sport, with his powerful arm and quick reactions. Machado started slowly in the spring as he returned from his first knee injury, but by the time he suffered his second knee injury, his slash line in 2014 (.278/.324/.431) was almost identical to what he generated in 2013 (.283/.314/.432).
The Orioles have a major quandary facing them about whether to invest a really big long-term deal in Machado, given the nature of his knee injuries, but they’ll worry about that down the road. Orioles sources indicated Saturday that they expect Machado will be good to go in March after completing the rehabilitation from his second knee injury.
9. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
Not only did Frazier climb to All-Star status in 2014, during which he hit 29 homers and drove in 80 runs, but it seemed that he and catcher Devin Mesoraco continued to develop as leaders of the Reds. Cincinnati has issues in different parts of its lineup, but third base shouldn’t be a problem for the foreseeable future.
Let’s start the nominating process now: Frazier should be the captain of the NL Home Run Derby team next July in Cincinnati.
10. Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates center fielder and 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen tried to make the case to anyone who would listen late in the season that Harrison was actually the Pittsburgh MVP in 2014, for all that he did offensively and for the way that he saved the team with his defensive flexibility.
With Pedro Alvarez now permanently shifted to first base, Harrison has a position to call his own.
Honorable mentions
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: At the outset of arranging these rankings, I assumed that I would have the 29-year-old Longoria somewhere among the top five or six. After all, Longoria ranked near the top of the AL in WAR every season from 2009 to 2011. But in examining how he played compared to his positional peers in 2014, it became impossible to justify a high ranking.
Longoria’s slugging percentage ranked 14th among third basemen last season, and his on-base percentage was 17th. For the first time in his career, he scored a negative number in defensive runs saved, and overall, that landed him behind Cody Asche and Casey McGehee, who are multiple Gold Glove winners, as Longoria is.
Some scouts thought Longoria’s legs weren’t right in 2014, that he didn’t have the same power in his swing. Maybe that will come back in 2015, and he’ll climb these rankings again.
Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee recently signed on for another season of Ramirez at $14 million. Ramirez turns 37 next year, and is approaching some benchmarks: He needs 36 doubles for 500 in his career, and 31 homers for 400.
David Wright of the New York Mets would normally be in this group, but is coming off a tough season; Chase Headley, currently a free agent in line for a multiyear deal, is also not far behind; and in 2015, we’ll see if the Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas follows up on his improvement in the second half and in the postseason.
Around the league
• From the Dog Chasing Its Tail Department: The Sandoval bidding continues to play out, and the most significant question remains: Will the Boston Red Sox or San Diego Padres separate themselves from the Giants’ offer in any meaningful way?
The Giants have stepped up the bidding. Sandoval will make a decision this week, writes John Shea.
• The Houston Astros are interested in David Robertson, writes Ken Davidoff.
There just aren’t many teams willing to pay big money for a closer, and if the Astros are an exception, it may be that Robertson will have to choose between a really, really good contract offer from the New York Yankees and a great contract offer from Houston.
Paying top dollar for a closer might make sense for Houston, writes Evan Drellich.
If the Astros think they’ll contend in 2015, it’s worth considering.
• The Chicago Cubs hired Henry Blanco for their coaching staff, and Dave Martinez could be next. It’ll be interesting to see if the hiring of Blanco creates any traction for a trade for Miguel Montero, whose defensive metrics greatly improved last season as a Blanco pupil.
• The Rays are looking for a clean break from the past, writes Marc Topkin.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Neil Allen was hired as the Minnesota Twins' pitching coach. Allen has overcome a lot of personal adversity, Mike Berardino writes.
2. The Orioles are down to one Britton.
3. There is a mutual interest in a Twins reunion with Torii Hunter.
4. The Detroit Tigers signed an outfielder.
5. Jonny Venters was cut.
6. The Dodgers added some more pitching depth.
NL West
• The rest of baseball wonders whether the Giants have a secret for success.
NL Central
• The Pirates are entering the Plan B phase. Within this piece, Travis Sawchik writes that the Pirates could target the best of the second tier of starters -- Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana or Brandon McCarthy, perhaps.
• Bernie Miklasz updates the Cardinals’ shopping list.
AL West
• Gerry Fraley writes about how the Rangers’ talent could be affected by roads in the Dominican Republic.
AL East
• Mookie Betts is not taking anything for granted.
Lastly
• Baseball needs to continue improving its diversity, writes Michael Silverman.
• Watching Kobe Bryant's season play out has been absolutely fascinating, because he just keeps shooting and shooting regardless of whether he’s really open, regardless of whether somebody else is open. He’s like an aging slugger who does nothing but try to hit homers in every part of the count, regardless of the score or the game situation, and that takes a special kind of internal discipline.
Bryant could not do this without an incredible track record -- let’s face it, almost any other player would be pulled off the floor for shooting so much without success -- and unapologetic approach within each sequence. You were open under the basket? There may have been a better shot than my 34-foot airball with five seconds on the shot clock? Oh well.
There have been a lot of great and confident shooters, and eventually, some of them might start to feel a little self-conscious hoisting easily the most shots in the league -- he’s averaging almost 30 percent more attempts per game than any other player -- while hitting just 37.8 percent of those attempts.
But Kobe is a testament to resiliency, of some form. He is undaunted, playing the game in a way that we might've all dreamed about when we were 7 or 8 years old: You get to take all the shots and score the most points.
The good folks at ESPN Stats & Information dug out a couple of numbers that illuminate the nature of Bryant’s relentless shooting:
1. In NBA history, only one player, Joe Fulks (1948-49) averaged at least 26 points per game while shooting worse than 38 percent from the field.
2. The lowest field goal percentage for any player who has led the league in scoring was in 1946-47, when Fulks shot 30.5 percent from the field while averaging a league-best 23.2 points per game.
One last thing: The lowest percentage that Michael Jordan ever shot in a full season was 41.6 percent.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Unlike second base and shortstop, two other positions we've recently rated, third base is stacked. (We've also gone through first basemen and catchers thus far.)
The top 10 third basemen in MLB:
1. Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
It’s not clear yet whether Oakland can contend in 2015, or whether the Athletics will soon go through another round of rebuilding. But they have told other teams that Donaldson is not being traded this winter -- and who could blame them, based on his performance the past two seasons?
Donaldson shocked rival evaluators with his adept defensive transition from catcher to third, and during the past two seasons, Donaldson has 53 homers, 152 walks and 191 RBIs. He turns 29 in December, and if the Athletics ever decide to move him, they could get a whole lot of value in return.
2. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
When Rendon was in college, scouts were struck by how calm he was in his plate appearances, how much command he seemed to have in his at-bats. In his first full season in the big leagues, he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting after reaching base 239 times and scoring 111 runs, with 39 doubles, six triples and 21 homers.
At age 24, he’s only just begun.
3. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Evaluators say his exceptional defense of past years has slipped, understandable given the fact that he just finished his 17th season in the big leagues. But Beltre continues to be a beast at the plate, hitting .324 with 53 extra-base hits last season.
It appears he has more than a legit shot at 3,000 hits: Beltre stands at 2,604, along with 395 homers, 528 doubles and 1,256 runs. The Hall of Fame? That’s a done deal.
4. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
He put in a lot of work on pre-pitch preparation and greatly improved his defense, for which he was rewarded with the AL Gold Glove for 2014. He took advantage of the chances that were created in having Robinson Cano hit in front of him, driving in 97 runs, with 56 extra-base hits.
Seager finished 15th in the majors in WAR in 2014.
5. Pablo Sandoval, free agent
Focus on all the downside of the Panda, if you’d prefer -- the past conditioning issues, the good-but-not-great regular-season production. But the bidding that is going on right now for his services demonstrates just how much his particular skills are valued -- apparently the Panda is an endangered species in baseball’s evolution, as a third baseman who can hit with left-handed power. (Sandoval, of course, is a switch-hitter.)
His next contract may climb over $100 million, and he’s capable of good defense and carrying a middle-of-the-order spot. Plus, he’s got that knack for the October stage.
6. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
He reached base 265 times last season, and while his extra-base-hit production dipped during the regular season, he demonstrated in the postseason that he’s fully capable of loading up and driving the ball. Carpenter had eight extra-base hits (four doubles and four homers) in 39 plate appearances against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in October, and he showed time and again how difficult he is to pitch to because of the ferocity of his at-bats; he just does not give in.
Carpenter averaged 4.37 pitches per plate appearance during the regular season, best in the NL, and drew a league-high 95 walks. His epic at-bats against Clayton Kershaw in the past two postseasons should be shown to minor leaguers as models of focus and fight in the batter’s box.
7. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Before he got hurt on May 23, it seemed Arenado was generating one or two Web Gems daily. He had good numbers at the plate, too, hitting .287 with 34 doubles, two triples and 18 homers in 111 games (although his home/road splits, as with so many other Colorado players, are eye-catching, with an OPS difference of more than 200 points).
The only reason he’s not higher on this list is that he doesn’t have as much of a track record: He's still just 23 years old and hasn’t played more than 133 games in a season.
8. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
He’s had two unusual knee injuries the past two seasons, on two unusual plays -- the most recent being a collapse in the batter’s box while swinging -- and this certainly makes you wonder whether he’ll be able to stay healthy. But when he has, he’s been among the most dominant defenders in the sport, with his powerful arm and quick reactions. Machado started slowly in the spring as he returned from his first knee injury, but by the time he suffered his second knee injury, his slash line in 2014 (.278/.324/.431) was almost identical to what he generated in 2013 (.283/.314/.432).
The Orioles have a major quandary facing them about whether to invest a really big long-term deal in Machado, given the nature of his knee injuries, but they’ll worry about that down the road. Orioles sources indicated Saturday that they expect Machado will be good to go in March after completing the rehabilitation from his second knee injury.
9. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
Not only did Frazier climb to All-Star status in 2014, during which he hit 29 homers and drove in 80 runs, but it seemed that he and catcher Devin Mesoraco continued to develop as leaders of the Reds. Cincinnati has issues in different parts of its lineup, but third base shouldn’t be a problem for the foreseeable future.
Let’s start the nominating process now: Frazier should be the captain of the NL Home Run Derby team next July in Cincinnati.
10. Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates center fielder and 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen tried to make the case to anyone who would listen late in the season that Harrison was actually the Pittsburgh MVP in 2014, for all that he did offensively and for the way that he saved the team with his defensive flexibility.
With Pedro Alvarez now permanently shifted to first base, Harrison has a position to call his own.
Honorable mentions
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: At the outset of arranging these rankings, I assumed that I would have the 29-year-old Longoria somewhere among the top five or six. After all, Longoria ranked near the top of the AL in WAR every season from 2009 to 2011. But in examining how he played compared to his positional peers in 2014, it became impossible to justify a high ranking.
Longoria’s slugging percentage ranked 14th among third basemen last season, and his on-base percentage was 17th. For the first time in his career, he scored a negative number in defensive runs saved, and overall, that landed him behind Cody Asche and Casey McGehee, who are multiple Gold Glove winners, as Longoria is.
Some scouts thought Longoria’s legs weren’t right in 2014, that he didn’t have the same power in his swing. Maybe that will come back in 2015, and he’ll climb these rankings again.
Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee recently signed on for another season of Ramirez at $14 million. Ramirez turns 37 next year, and is approaching some benchmarks: He needs 36 doubles for 500 in his career, and 31 homers for 400.
David Wright of the New York Mets would normally be in this group, but is coming off a tough season; Chase Headley, currently a free agent in line for a multiyear deal, is also not far behind; and in 2015, we’ll see if the Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas follows up on his improvement in the second half and in the postseason.
Around the league
• From the Dog Chasing Its Tail Department: The Sandoval bidding continues to play out, and the most significant question remains: Will the Boston Red Sox or San Diego Padres separate themselves from the Giants’ offer in any meaningful way?
The Giants have stepped up the bidding. Sandoval will make a decision this week, writes John Shea.
• The Houston Astros are interested in David Robertson, writes Ken Davidoff.
There just aren’t many teams willing to pay big money for a closer, and if the Astros are an exception, it may be that Robertson will have to choose between a really, really good contract offer from the New York Yankees and a great contract offer from Houston.
Paying top dollar for a closer might make sense for Houston, writes Evan Drellich.
If the Astros think they’ll contend in 2015, it’s worth considering.
• The Chicago Cubs hired Henry Blanco for their coaching staff, and Dave Martinez could be next. It’ll be interesting to see if the hiring of Blanco creates any traction for a trade for Miguel Montero, whose defensive metrics greatly improved last season as a Blanco pupil.
• The Rays are looking for a clean break from the past, writes Marc Topkin.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Neil Allen was hired as the Minnesota Twins' pitching coach. Allen has overcome a lot of personal adversity, Mike Berardino writes.
2. The Orioles are down to one Britton.
3. There is a mutual interest in a Twins reunion with Torii Hunter.
4. The Detroit Tigers signed an outfielder.
5. Jonny Venters was cut.
6. The Dodgers added some more pitching depth.
NL West
• The rest of baseball wonders whether the Giants have a secret for success.
NL Central
• The Pirates are entering the Plan B phase. Within this piece, Travis Sawchik writes that the Pirates could target the best of the second tier of starters -- Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana or Brandon McCarthy, perhaps.
• Bernie Miklasz updates the Cardinals’ shopping list.
AL West
• Gerry Fraley writes about how the Rangers’ talent could be affected by roads in the Dominican Republic.
AL East
• Mookie Betts is not taking anything for granted.
Lastly
• Baseball needs to continue improving its diversity, writes Michael Silverman.
• Watching Kobe Bryant's season play out has been absolutely fascinating, because he just keeps shooting and shooting regardless of whether he’s really open, regardless of whether somebody else is open. He’s like an aging slugger who does nothing but try to hit homers in every part of the count, regardless of the score or the game situation, and that takes a special kind of internal discipline.
Bryant could not do this without an incredible track record -- let’s face it, almost any other player would be pulled off the floor for shooting so much without success -- and unapologetic approach within each sequence. You were open under the basket? There may have been a better shot than my 34-foot airball with five seconds on the shot clock? Oh well.
There have been a lot of great and confident shooters, and eventually, some of them might start to feel a little self-conscious hoisting easily the most shots in the league -- he’s averaging almost 30 percent more attempts per game than any other player -- while hitting just 37.8 percent of those attempts.
But Kobe is a testament to resiliency, of some form. He is undaunted, playing the game in a way that we might've all dreamed about when we were 7 or 8 years old: You get to take all the shots and score the most points.
The good folks at ESPN Stats & Information dug out a couple of numbers that illuminate the nature of Bryant’s relentless shooting:
1. In NBA history, only one player, Joe Fulks (1948-49) averaged at least 26 points per game while shooting worse than 38 percent from the field.
2. The lowest field goal percentage for any player who has led the league in scoring was in 1946-47, when Fulks shot 30.5 percent from the field while averaging a league-best 23.2 points per game.
One last thing: The lowest percentage that Michael Jordan ever shot in a full season was 41.6 percent.
And today will be better than yesterday.
White Sox's climb boosts AL Central.
Maybe the American League Central has been better than previously advertised, in light of the recent postseason success of the teams. The Detroit Tigers played for the league championship three straight seasons, from 2011 to 2013, and really, all that stood between the Kansas City Royals and a championship at the end of a seven-game World Series this year was Madison Bumgarner. The Central fed two teams into the five-team playoffs each of the past two seasons, with the Cleveland Indians participating in 2013.
The division’s reputation for weakness has probably been built on its payrolls, besides that of the Tigers; the Indians, Royals and Twins typically operate with modest budgets, and the White Sox went through cuts in recent seasons. But, no matter how the perception was built, it is changing because the AL Central is evolving into something better.
The Tigers will again run out a rotation of stars, supported by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and the Royals should be back in contention again, even if they lose James Shields (and perhaps replace him with someone such as Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano or Brett Anderson). The Indians have strong pitching.
And now the White Sox seemed poised to climb, after 13 months of tremendous growth that really kicked off with the signing of Jose Abreu -- which looks as if it could be one of the great value deals in recent baseball history -- and continued this week with the signing of reliever Zach Duke and their Friday agreement with veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche, who crushed right-handed pitching last season, with an .891 OPS, 67 walks and 65 strikeouts in 431 plate appearances. An early roster diagram of the White Sox might look something like this, at the moment:
CF Adam Eaton (who had a .365 OBP last season)
SS Alexei Ramirez
1B Jose Abreu
DH Adam LaRoche
RF Avisail Garcia
3B Conor Gillaspie
LF Dayan Viciedo
C Tyler Flowers
2B Micah Johnson
Rotation:
Chris Sale
Jose Quintana
John Danks
Carlos Rodon
Bullpen: Jake Petricka, Duke.
There is more work to be done, of course. The White Sox have a dynamic young shortstop, Tim Anderson, who reached Double-A at the end of this season, and his inevitable ascension is part of the reason Chicago is taking offers for 33-year-old Ramirez. The Sox are said to be intent on moving Viciedo, and, unquestionably, more bullpen help is needed.
But having two of the top 20 players in the majors, Sale and Abreu, provides a tremendous backbone to the current roster skeleton that is taking shape in another corner of what looks to be a power division.
Around the league
• The White Sox are shunning risk, writes Doug Padilla. Ken Williams wants White Sox fans to dream again, writes Colleen Kane.
• Raul Ibanez, Kevin Cash and Don Wakamatsu are finalists for the Rays’ managerial job, as Marc Topkin writes. Ibanez has been known for his tremendous clubhouse influence in his playing career -- and, in fact, some in the Royals organization tie the team’s midseason turnaround to the addition of Ibanez and a meeting he and other veterans called in late July. Cash was seriously considered for the Rangers’ managerial job, and folks in the Cleveland organization have viewed him as a rising star.
• The next Rays manager will probably have ties to the Royals, as Andy McCullough writes.
• Craig Counsell will remain with the Brewers.
• As part of the Blue Jays’ efforts in landing Russell Martin, GM Alex Anthopoulos and CEO Paul Beeston were in the Toronto offices early on Sunday morning, and stayed there all day -- and acted like a bidder at an auction who keeps raising her/his hand to every call for a higher bid. The Cubs really wanted Martin -- who will turn 32 in February -- and believed they would land him, but, as the bidding climbed, their level of discomfort over the price tag grew, in light of the dubious history of catchers breaking down in their early 30s.
• The Jays, on the other hand, never stopped upping the ante -- which they understood to be higher for them, anyway, given the difference in taxes in Canada. As the Cubs weighed an offer beyond the $70 million range over four years, the Blue Jays were told they could close the bidding if they made an offer of $82 million over five years. And they responded quickly, again, taking the best free-agent catcher off the board.
• The Pirates offered Martin a four-year deal, as Travis Sawchik wrote the other day.
• The signing of Martin could help the Blue Jays with other free agents, as Brendan Kennedy writes.
• Arizona’s talks for catcher Miguel Montero have not picked up substantively since Martin signed, Nick Piecoro writes within this notebook.
• With the addition of Adam Lind, the heaviest lifting of the Brewers’ offseason is complete, but there could be more. Milwaukee is looking to add a bullpen piece -- somebody who can help in the middle innings, considering that the late innings are accounted for by the hard-throwing trio of Jonathan Broxton, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress, who all throw in the mid-90s. Milwaukee is in a similar position that the Reds are in now, carrying starting pitchers who will be eligible for free agency next fall: 28-year-old Yovani Gallardo, who has seemingly been around forever but was drafted in the same year as Homer Bailey, and 36-year-old Kyle Lohse, who had a 3.54 ERA in 198 1/3 innings last season. The Brewers have some rotation surplus, with Jimmy Nelson groomed to move into the rotation, so Milwaukee will listen to offers for Gallardo and Lohse.
• Rival evaluators expect that the Braves will trade Justin Upton after the trade of Jason Heyward. But, although some understand the Braves’ efforts to land young, controllable pitching, like Shelby Miller, they wonder why Atlanta has seemed focused solely on pitching in its proposed deals rather than just taking the best players available. “If they only talk to teams that are willing to discuss front-line pitching prospects,” said one AL official, “they’re going to limit themselves.” Additionally, evaluators say, it’s actually more difficult right now to find good young position players than it is to find pitching.
• There will probably be a day in 2015 when Corey Seager plays shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers, after his strong 2014 season, in which he reached Double-A; Seager recently finished a tremendous stint in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .825 OPS in 23 games. But the Dodgers are not likely to count on Seager as they map out a shortstop solution for 2015. It is more likely they will identify a shortstop who can play the spot for at least one and perhaps two seasons, as Seager continues to develop -- and if Seager forces his way to the big leagues next season, they’d be happy with that, too.
• The Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are all considering shortstop solutions for next year, and some rival evaluators view Stephen Drew -- who turns 32 in March -- as a possible match for those teams, as a placeholder.
• As mentioned here before, the Padres are trolling for a big splash, which could come in the days ahead. San Diego GM A.J. Preller met with Pablo Sandoval on Friday.
Having covered the Padres for The San Diego Union-Tribune, I’d offer this thought: Winning is the only thing that really draws fans there. A big splash designed to get the attention of fans will not resonate at all unless the team is successful in the standings. If the investment in Sandoval or Yasmani Tomas is seen as a building block to fielding a team that is going to contend with the Giants and Dodgers, that’s great. But the new Padres front office should eschew all thoughts of a splash factor: It just doesn’t translate in San Diego. Whether it’s the Padres or Chargers or San Diego Sockers (an indoor soccer team), fans show up to watch winning teams -- and they don’t respond to losing teams.
• The Red Sox's offer to Sandoval is approaching $100 million, writes Nick Cafardo. This is nail-biting time for the Boston front office, writes Michael Silverman.
If the Giants’ offer is in the $90 million range -- slightly less than Boston’s offer, and perhaps other offers by other teams -- it will be interesting to see whether Sandoval prefers taking a little more money from another club rather than staying with a team he knows well. It might be that adding a sixth year of $18 million-ish salary to the offer could be a tipping point, in the way the Blue Jays’ decision to add a fifth year was pivotal in the Martin talks.
• Scott Boras is working to establish value for Max Scherzer, writes Joel Sherman. Washington, on paper, is a possible fit, although there is a ripple for the Nationals: If they give $175 million to Scherzer, what will they have to pay Stephen Strasburg? And if it’s something in the range of $180 million to $200 million, do they want to have $50 million devoted annually to two pitchers on long-term deals?
• Some rival evaluators note that the Marlins’ effort to add premium free agents around Giancarlo Stanton could be greatly complicated by the events of 2011-2012, when Miami signed Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle while reportedly giving the players assurances they would stay, only to dump them to the Blue Jays a year later. “If you’re talking with the Marlins, don’t you have to ask for a no-trade clause?” an evaluator asked rhetorically.
The Marlins famously never handed out no-trade clauses for years, but they gave one to Stanton.
• Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt has some questions about the Stanton signing.
Moves, deals and decisions
• Dings and dents: Giovanny Urshela, an Indians prospect, won’t need knee surgery.
NL East
• Giancarlo Stanton’s contract could affect future talks with Bryce Harper, as Barry Svrluga writes.
• Michael Cuddyer did a Q&A.
NL Central
• A trade of Jay Bruce is highly unlikely, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.
• As some of the Reds’ trade talk swirl, it’s worth remembering this about Reds owner Bob Castellini: He’s really competitive and is not apt to punt on a season, ever. Oh, sure, Cincinnati could back up the truck, trade Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, etc., etc., for prospects -- in the same way the Yankees could go under the luxury tax threshold (but never do). It’s just never going to be in Castellini’s nature to buy into a long-term Houston-like rebuilding job.
• Steve Hummer feels happy for Jason Heyward.
NL West
• **** Monfort says the Rockies are never going to be OK with losing.
• The Dodgers’ trade for bullpen help might not be what you expect from Andrew Friedman, writes Steve Dilbeck.
Actually, I think it’s exactly what you should expect. Nobody has had more success in building bullpens over the past decade than Freidman did as he ran the Rays.
AL East
• The Orioles’ winning ways have an impact.
• Manny Machado has the green light to move to shortstop, if needed.
AL Central
• Ted Kubiak has left the Indians’ organization.
Lastly
• Alex Rodriguez is the subject of a legal discussion.
• An HBO special revealed details of Ryan Howard’s financial setup seven years ago.
• Sexual assault charges have been reinstated against a former Tigers pitcher.
• UCLA named its athletic complex after Jackie Robinson.
And today will be better than yesterday.
The division’s reputation for weakness has probably been built on its payrolls, besides that of the Tigers; the Indians, Royals and Twins typically operate with modest budgets, and the White Sox went through cuts in recent seasons. But, no matter how the perception was built, it is changing because the AL Central is evolving into something better.
The Tigers will again run out a rotation of stars, supported by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and the Royals should be back in contention again, even if they lose James Shields (and perhaps replace him with someone such as Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano or Brett Anderson). The Indians have strong pitching.
And now the White Sox seemed poised to climb, after 13 months of tremendous growth that really kicked off with the signing of Jose Abreu -- which looks as if it could be one of the great value deals in recent baseball history -- and continued this week with the signing of reliever Zach Duke and their Friday agreement with veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche, who crushed right-handed pitching last season, with an .891 OPS, 67 walks and 65 strikeouts in 431 plate appearances. An early roster diagram of the White Sox might look something like this, at the moment:
CF Adam Eaton (who had a .365 OBP last season)
SS Alexei Ramirez
1B Jose Abreu
DH Adam LaRoche
RF Avisail Garcia
3B Conor Gillaspie
LF Dayan Viciedo
C Tyler Flowers
2B Micah Johnson
Rotation:
Chris Sale
Jose Quintana
John Danks
Carlos Rodon
Bullpen: Jake Petricka, Duke.
There is more work to be done, of course. The White Sox have a dynamic young shortstop, Tim Anderson, who reached Double-A at the end of this season, and his inevitable ascension is part of the reason Chicago is taking offers for 33-year-old Ramirez. The Sox are said to be intent on moving Viciedo, and, unquestionably, more bullpen help is needed.
But having two of the top 20 players in the majors, Sale and Abreu, provides a tremendous backbone to the current roster skeleton that is taking shape in another corner of what looks to be a power division.
Around the league
• The White Sox are shunning risk, writes Doug Padilla. Ken Williams wants White Sox fans to dream again, writes Colleen Kane.
• Raul Ibanez, Kevin Cash and Don Wakamatsu are finalists for the Rays’ managerial job, as Marc Topkin writes. Ibanez has been known for his tremendous clubhouse influence in his playing career -- and, in fact, some in the Royals organization tie the team’s midseason turnaround to the addition of Ibanez and a meeting he and other veterans called in late July. Cash was seriously considered for the Rangers’ managerial job, and folks in the Cleveland organization have viewed him as a rising star.
• The next Rays manager will probably have ties to the Royals, as Andy McCullough writes.
• Craig Counsell will remain with the Brewers.
• As part of the Blue Jays’ efforts in landing Russell Martin, GM Alex Anthopoulos and CEO Paul Beeston were in the Toronto offices early on Sunday morning, and stayed there all day -- and acted like a bidder at an auction who keeps raising her/his hand to every call for a higher bid. The Cubs really wanted Martin -- who will turn 32 in February -- and believed they would land him, but, as the bidding climbed, their level of discomfort over the price tag grew, in light of the dubious history of catchers breaking down in their early 30s.
• The Jays, on the other hand, never stopped upping the ante -- which they understood to be higher for them, anyway, given the difference in taxes in Canada. As the Cubs weighed an offer beyond the $70 million range over four years, the Blue Jays were told they could close the bidding if they made an offer of $82 million over five years. And they responded quickly, again, taking the best free-agent catcher off the board.
• The Pirates offered Martin a four-year deal, as Travis Sawchik wrote the other day.
• The signing of Martin could help the Blue Jays with other free agents, as Brendan Kennedy writes.
• Arizona’s talks for catcher Miguel Montero have not picked up substantively since Martin signed, Nick Piecoro writes within this notebook.
• With the addition of Adam Lind, the heaviest lifting of the Brewers’ offseason is complete, but there could be more. Milwaukee is looking to add a bullpen piece -- somebody who can help in the middle innings, considering that the late innings are accounted for by the hard-throwing trio of Jonathan Broxton, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress, who all throw in the mid-90s. Milwaukee is in a similar position that the Reds are in now, carrying starting pitchers who will be eligible for free agency next fall: 28-year-old Yovani Gallardo, who has seemingly been around forever but was drafted in the same year as Homer Bailey, and 36-year-old Kyle Lohse, who had a 3.54 ERA in 198 1/3 innings last season. The Brewers have some rotation surplus, with Jimmy Nelson groomed to move into the rotation, so Milwaukee will listen to offers for Gallardo and Lohse.
• Rival evaluators expect that the Braves will trade Justin Upton after the trade of Jason Heyward. But, although some understand the Braves’ efforts to land young, controllable pitching, like Shelby Miller, they wonder why Atlanta has seemed focused solely on pitching in its proposed deals rather than just taking the best players available. “If they only talk to teams that are willing to discuss front-line pitching prospects,” said one AL official, “they’re going to limit themselves.” Additionally, evaluators say, it’s actually more difficult right now to find good young position players than it is to find pitching.
• There will probably be a day in 2015 when Corey Seager plays shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers, after his strong 2014 season, in which he reached Double-A; Seager recently finished a tremendous stint in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .825 OPS in 23 games. But the Dodgers are not likely to count on Seager as they map out a shortstop solution for 2015. It is more likely they will identify a shortstop who can play the spot for at least one and perhaps two seasons, as Seager continues to develop -- and if Seager forces his way to the big leagues next season, they’d be happy with that, too.
• The Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are all considering shortstop solutions for next year, and some rival evaluators view Stephen Drew -- who turns 32 in March -- as a possible match for those teams, as a placeholder.
• As mentioned here before, the Padres are trolling for a big splash, which could come in the days ahead. San Diego GM A.J. Preller met with Pablo Sandoval on Friday.
Having covered the Padres for The San Diego Union-Tribune, I’d offer this thought: Winning is the only thing that really draws fans there. A big splash designed to get the attention of fans will not resonate at all unless the team is successful in the standings. If the investment in Sandoval or Yasmani Tomas is seen as a building block to fielding a team that is going to contend with the Giants and Dodgers, that’s great. But the new Padres front office should eschew all thoughts of a splash factor: It just doesn’t translate in San Diego. Whether it’s the Padres or Chargers or San Diego Sockers (an indoor soccer team), fans show up to watch winning teams -- and they don’t respond to losing teams.
• The Red Sox's offer to Sandoval is approaching $100 million, writes Nick Cafardo. This is nail-biting time for the Boston front office, writes Michael Silverman.
If the Giants’ offer is in the $90 million range -- slightly less than Boston’s offer, and perhaps other offers by other teams -- it will be interesting to see whether Sandoval prefers taking a little more money from another club rather than staying with a team he knows well. It might be that adding a sixth year of $18 million-ish salary to the offer could be a tipping point, in the way the Blue Jays’ decision to add a fifth year was pivotal in the Martin talks.
• Scott Boras is working to establish value for Max Scherzer, writes Joel Sherman. Washington, on paper, is a possible fit, although there is a ripple for the Nationals: If they give $175 million to Scherzer, what will they have to pay Stephen Strasburg? And if it’s something in the range of $180 million to $200 million, do they want to have $50 million devoted annually to two pitchers on long-term deals?
• Some rival evaluators note that the Marlins’ effort to add premium free agents around Giancarlo Stanton could be greatly complicated by the events of 2011-2012, when Miami signed Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle while reportedly giving the players assurances they would stay, only to dump them to the Blue Jays a year later. “If you’re talking with the Marlins, don’t you have to ask for a no-trade clause?” an evaluator asked rhetorically.
The Marlins famously never handed out no-trade clauses for years, but they gave one to Stanton.
• Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt has some questions about the Stanton signing.
Moves, deals and decisions
• Dings and dents: Giovanny Urshela, an Indians prospect, won’t need knee surgery.
NL East
• Giancarlo Stanton’s contract could affect future talks with Bryce Harper, as Barry Svrluga writes.
• Michael Cuddyer did a Q&A.
NL Central
• A trade of Jay Bruce is highly unlikely, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.
• As some of the Reds’ trade talk swirl, it’s worth remembering this about Reds owner Bob Castellini: He’s really competitive and is not apt to punt on a season, ever. Oh, sure, Cincinnati could back up the truck, trade Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, etc., etc., for prospects -- in the same way the Yankees could go under the luxury tax threshold (but never do). It’s just never going to be in Castellini’s nature to buy into a long-term Houston-like rebuilding job.
• Steve Hummer feels happy for Jason Heyward.
NL West
• **** Monfort says the Rockies are never going to be OK with losing.
• The Dodgers’ trade for bullpen help might not be what you expect from Andrew Friedman, writes Steve Dilbeck.
Actually, I think it’s exactly what you should expect. Nobody has had more success in building bullpens over the past decade than Freidman did as he ran the Rays.
AL East
• The Orioles’ winning ways have an impact.
• Manny Machado has the green light to move to shortstop, if needed.
AL Central
• Ted Kubiak has left the Indians’ organization.
Lastly
• Alex Rodriguez is the subject of a legal discussion.
• An HBO special revealed details of Ryan Howard’s financial setup seven years ago.
• Sexual assault charges have been reinstated against a former Tigers pitcher.
• UCLA named its athletic complex after Jackie Robinson.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Top 10 shortstops in MLB.
The question of whether you’d prefer to have Buster Posey or Yadier Molina at catcher has lots of layers, as does the debate about whether Miguel Cabrera is the game’s top first baseman.
But with Troy Tulowitzki coming back from major surgery and facing an uncertain future, there really is no clear No. 1 among the shortstops. You could take this in a lot of different directions, depending on what you value the most -- a preference for high-end offense, or Platinum Glove-caliber defense, or mere consistency.
Through conversations with team evaluators, general managers and our own statistical analysts, we probably considered four or five different guys in the No. 1 spot at one time or another.
We settled on this ranking of MLB shortstops:
1. Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves
Simmons is not the perfect player, by any means; picking the No. 1 shortstop is not the same now as it was in 2001, when you had your choice of Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and others. Simmons had a .286 on-base percentage last season, with seven homers among just 29 extra-base hits in 540 plate appearances. It would be very reasonable here to make a case in the No. 1 spot for a better hitter, or maybe two or three others.
But a highly ranked executive put it best when explaining why he’d have Simmons as the No. 1 shortstop. “He’s the best defensive shortstop, easily -- a great defender at a position where defense is the most important thing."
Especially in an era in which offensive numbers are down and teams are looking for an edge with their positioning, having a shortstop with both the best arm and best range is an enormous asset.
There is a lot of skepticism among evaluators about whether Simmons will be anything more than an average hitter, given the nature of his swing. But the Braves have him under contract through his age-30 season, which means they should have at least six more seasons of shutdown defense at shortstop, making him a tremendous asset.
2. Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals
Let’s get the usual qualifier about Peralta out of the way: He was suspended in 2013 because of his ties to Biogenesis. Unlike A-Rod or Bartolo Colon, however, Peralta is still in the middle of his career, and he had a tremendous season in 2014, relative to the production at the position -- 38 doubles, 21 homers and a .779 OPS batting right in the middle of his team’s lineup, which is not as common with shortstops as it was 15 years ago.
Peralta scored very highly in defensive metrics in 2014, although Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information detailed that a lot of this is probably related to the improved positioning of the St. Louis defense. John Fisher of ESPN Stats & Info kicked in these notes: Peralta is fourth among shortstops in slugging percentage (.426) the past three seasons (minimum 1,000 PAs). He’s fifth among shortstops in defensive runs saved (plus-16) the past three seasons (minimum 3,000 innings).
3. Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals
At his best, Desmond can be a dynamic player with power and speed (69 homers and 66 stolen bases from 2012-14). He’s won three consecutive NL Silver Slugger Awards. He also had a whopping 183 strikeouts last season, with an on-base percentage of .313, and scouts say he still tends to make mistakes on routine plays; his 24 errors last season were the second-most in his career, and he was in the middle of the pack in defensive runs saved.
But scouts like his energy and aggressiveness, and no position player will go into 2015 with a higher risk/reward in play than Desmond, who is set to become a free agent next fall. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers could be in the market at that time for long-term solutions at shortstop. A big year from Desmond would pay off in a big way.
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
He’d be No. 1 if he were healthy, of course, and could be counted on for a season’s worth of games. Tulowitzki, who turned 30 in October, was the only player among those with 375 or more plate appearances to post an OPS over 1.000. He had 21 homers among 40 extra-base hits, and oh by the way, he also was one of the highest-ranked defenders at his position. In the 91 games he played in 2014, he posted an OPS+ of 171, a number that is the equivalent of what a vintage Ken Griffey Jr. generated over a full season in 1993, and what Buster Posey generated in his MVP season of 2012.
But Tulowitzki had surgery to repair a hip labrum, which some rival executives believe is a major concern moving forward. While the sense of rival GMs is that Colorado would listen to offers for the four-time All-Star, they’re not really sure what he is right now, or what he’s going to be, this while carrying a contract that guarantees him $118 million over the next six seasons.
“There’s a lot of risk with him,” said one rival official.
Simon sent this along: The most wins above replacement (WAR) among shortstops the last two seasons: Tulowitzki (10.
, Simmons (10.3), Peralta (9.1), Hanley Ramirez (9.0), Desmond (7.3).
5. J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles smartly got him off the free-agent market by investing a three-year, $40 million deal in Hardy, who would have drawn interest from the Yankees and Mets, among others. Hardy has won the last three AL Gold Glove Awards, and he’s had five seasons of 22 or more homers. He's very quietly among the best at the position, and has been for a little while now.
6. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
Every other October, we’ve gotten a taste of why Crawford is a perfect fit for the Giants, with his consistent and occasionally spectacular defense. Here’s Crawford in the World Series making a strong throw, and here he is saving a run on a ball that skipped off the glove of Pablo Sandoval.
7. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia spoke last season about how Aybar, 30, really doesn’t get a lot of notice for what he does. He's a pretty consistent hitter with some pop and the ability to drive in runs. But Aybar also puts the ball in play, at least compared to most in an era of high-volume strikeouts. He has never had more than 81 strikeouts in any season.
8. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
He has some value in the trade market (see below). Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info sent along this note about his defense and offense: “He may be slipping defensively, at least as measured by defensive runs saved -- he’s gone from +14 to +1 to -4 since 2012. Also, through the end of May, he was hitting .329 with a .479 slugging percentage; after that, he hit .243 with a .370 slugging over a span of 423 plate appearances."
9. Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals
As he ages, Escobar is becoming somewhat like Hardy -- a good and reliable player. His mediocre ratings in defensive metrics don’t match what a lot of evaluators think about him -- that he is among the better shortstops in baseball. He certainly filled a key role for the Royals amid their postseason surge.
10. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
I have to admit that as I started this, I thought Castro would be ranked somewhere in the range of best six to eight shortstops. But rival evaluators want to see more maturation in his defense, more consistency; in 2014, he scored only slightly higher than Hanley Ramirez in defensive runs saved. Some evaluators are convinced that if the Cubs don’t trade Castro, he’ll eventually be moved to another spot as Addison Russell ascends into the shortstop role.
Castro has 846 career hits and still hasn’t reached his 25th birthday, and he had a nice rebound in 2014 offensively, with his OPS climbing from .631 to .777. And he's under control for a while in Chicago.
Honorable mentions
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: He had a .717 OPS last season, with 43 extra-base hits and 28 steals in 138 games. A lot of evaluators continue to regard him as a good defender.
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: We’ve seen what he can be at his best, but he has gone in reverse in terms of production. Andrus’ OPS declined from .727 in 2012 to .647 last year -- when he had just 38 extra-base hits in 685 plate appearance -- and he was thrown out on 15 of his 42 stolen-base attempts. He is 26 years old and should be higher than this. John Fisher notes: He’s fourth among shortstops in OBP (.331) the past three seasons (minimum 1,000 PAs); he’s seventh among shortstops in defensive runs saved (plus-6) the past three seasons (minimum 3,000 innings).
Jose Reyes, Blue Jays: The 31-year-old shortstop had a .726 OPS in 2014, with 30 steals in 32 attempts. But some evaluators are seeing holes develop in his defensive play.
Hanley Ramirez is not on this list because a lot of evaluators expect he’ll be playing a different position in his next stop. He’s still an excellent offensive player; as Havens notes, he is No. 1 in home runs and offensive WAR among current shortstops for his career. He also had the highest OPS+ among shortstops in 2014, at 132.
Of course, his defense has been below average, thus all the talk about a position switch.
Notables across free agency
• Players (and a lot of the rest of us) have a thing for round numbers, which is why hitting .400 (instead of .399 or .39 is such a big deal, why hitting a 500th homer gets a lot of attention.
Pablo Sandoval is in negotiations with the Giants, Red Sox and perhaps some other teams, and it’s possible his contract offers might be in the range of $90 million. The other day, I mentioned on Twitter that you wonder if, deep down inside, it’s really important for Sandoval to get a $100 million deal. In response, a tweep sent this along ... which may or may not give some insight into Sandoval’s feeling about the $100 million figure. Molly Knight wrote this piece about Sandoval.
If, in fact, the Giants or the Red Sox have made offers approaching $100 million, it might be worth it for them to defer money and structure their deals in such a way that the headline on the deal is about a nine-figure contract. Perhaps it really does mean something to him.
Don’t rule out the possibility of Sandoval returning to the Giants, writes Scott Lauber. There has been confidence within the San Francisco organization that they'll be able to re-sign Sandoval -- but if the Giants cannot, and Sandoval signs someplace else, there won’t be remorse. The Giants believe they’ve been fair, given the history with Sandoval.
San Francisco is right in the middle of the Sandoval talks, writes Henry Schulman. Giants exec Bobby Evans believes Sandoval is close to a decision.
• There lots of rumblings in the industry that the Padres are positioning themselves for a big splash -- perhaps the signing of outfielder Yasmani Tomas, the defector from Cuba, for example, or maybe an unexpected trade. This is the first offseason since A.J. Preller was hired by president Mike Dee as the team’s general manager.
The bidding on Tomas has dragged on, perhaps because of related situations, like Pablo Sandoval’s negotiations.
• The Pirates cleared the way for Pedro Alvarez to move to first base, and have cut Ike Davis.
• Some rival evaluators believe that when the bidding in the Jon Lester negotiations is over, he will be with the Chicago Cubs, whose situation has changed substantively this week. Russell Martin was the centerpiece of the Cubs’ offseason wish list, given their own long-term strengths and needs -- and the Cubs were probably as surprised as the rest of the industry when the Blue Jays added a fifth year to their offer and separated themselves.
So now the Cubs’ front office is left to reassess the big picture. The fact that Martin didn’t sign with them might theoretically cause them to ratchet down their own expectations for 2015 improvement, and simply wait a little longer to target available veterans to build around. You could make the argument that because Martin didn’t sign, it might make less sense to pay big dollars for Jon Lester or Max Scherzer for next season, because the Cubs could be a little less likely to contend for the postseason without Martin.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
The Cubs and Red Sox are seen as favorites for Jon Lester's services.
But after losing out on the Martin bidding, the Cubs now have more cash available than they might've expected a week ago. There’s not really much upside in the Cubs working to make a splash, in the way that the Marlins are trying to do with their long-term investment in Giancarlo Stanton, because, well, they’re the Chicago Cubs. But the fan base, already stoked with excitement about the growing list of prospects and the hiring of manager Joe Maddon, probably does need something to show good faith -- like a promise ring, before an engagement ring. The signing of Lester or Scherzer could represent that, and Lester is someone that Cubs executives Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer know well from their days in Boston together.
Remember: The Cubs were a major player in the Masahiro Tanaka negotiations last winter, bidding $140 million. They’re not averse to pursuing the right player at the right time, and with the Cubs having missed in their effort to sign Martin, maybe Lester will move into the crosshairs as the right guy at the right time. Ultimately, they’ll make the baseball decision that seems right to them, as they did with Martin, when they decided to offer four years instead of five years.
But some rival evaluators think Lester will look even more attractive to them now.
Lester met with the Braves on Thursday, and Lester and Sandoval are awaiting offers from the Red Sox. Bernie Miklasz wonders if the Cardinals are plotting a big move for Lester. It wasn’t clear whether there was progress in the negotiations with the Braves, writes David O’Brien.
• Jerry Crasnick details the efforts to pick up pace of play in the Arizona Fall League.
• The offseason waters continue to be muddied by the incredible number of veterans eligible for free agency next fall who are currently dangling in the market: Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Ian Kennedy, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins and others. Yoenis Cespedes may also be had, rival evaluators believe, in the same vein as the others: The Red Sox would be willing to take something really good for him in return.
The Reds have three players eligible for free agency next fall currently available in the market -- Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon -- but are not close to doing anything, writes John Fay.
• The White Sox's asking price for Alexei Ramirez is said by rival teams to be steep, so much so that any interested team would have to look at him -- in light of the cost -- as a player who could be a pivotal piece in the team’s effort to win a championship in the next couple of seasons.
• Russell Martin met with reporters in Toronto on Thursday and talked about how the Jays went all-in. He is going to be a leader, as John Lott writes.
• The Rays took Jose Molina off their roster and traded reliever Joel Peralta to the Dodgers. L.A. added to its thin bullpen. The trade talks between Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman were smoothly awkward, as Marc Topkin writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The manager challenges will remain in the replay system, which will have a lot of managers and club officials scratching their heads.
2. The Orioles claimed Alex Hassan on waivers.
3. The Red Sox added another talented catcher to their 40-man roster.
4. The Tigers added a reliever.
5. The Indians added some guys to their 40-man roster.
6. The Brewers rounded out their 40-man roster.
7. The White Sox designated a veteran pitcher for assignment.
8. The Cubs added a talented pitcher to their 40-man roster, as Jesse Rogers writes.
9. The Rangers brought back a catcher.
10. Juan Nicasio is on the way out.
11. The Angels picked up an outfielder.
12. The Mariners added some players to their 40-man roster.
Dings and dents
1. Jesse Biddle has mild tendinitis.
2. Tyson Ross says his forearm is healthy.
AL West
• The Astros played the odds on their 40-man roster decisions.
• Jeff Luhnow is not averse to contract extensions, writes Evan Drellich. A lot of rival evaluators are wondering: When are the Astros going to use their financial flexibility this winter?
• Yu Darvish decided to date openly with a wrestling champ.
AL Central
• Torii Hunter is thinking about a return to the Twins.
• The Royals’ partial season-ticket holders will choose Opening Day seats soon.
AL East
• Chris Davis discussed a moment of weakness in a radio interview. From his conversation with SHINE-FM:
“I was really down,” Davis said. “I was really depressed because I felt like I had let so many people down and had really just scarred my reputation to the point of where everything that I had done wasn’t really going to count for anything. God just reached down and put his arm around me at that time and let me know that it’s OK to stumble as long as you get up and move forward and learn from your mistakes. I’m at a point right now where I don’t ever wish to go through that again, but I appreciate the process and where it’s brought me spiritually.”
NL Central
• The Cardinals chose Carlos Martinez over Shelby Miller, as Bernie Miklasz writes.
NL East
• The pressure is now on Giancarlo Stanton, writes Greg Cote.
• Bud Selig continues to support the Wilpons.
• Zack Wheeler doesn’t want to be traded by the Mets, writes Anthony McCarron.
Lastly
• Rob Manfred got a five-year contract.
• Ryan Howard has been involved in a really difficult situation. This story certainly provides a different context for his struggles last season. It’s worth repeating -- a Ubaldo Jimenez-for-Ryan Howard trade, with the Phillies eating the $10 million buyout of his contract in 2017, could make a ton of sense for both the Orioles and Philadelphia.
• The Mariners got an award for their philanthropic work.
• Yankees general manager Brian Cashman did a nice thing to raise awareness for a charity, and talked about his team with reporters.
And today will be better than yesterday.
But with Troy Tulowitzki coming back from major surgery and facing an uncertain future, there really is no clear No. 1 among the shortstops. You could take this in a lot of different directions, depending on what you value the most -- a preference for high-end offense, or Platinum Glove-caliber defense, or mere consistency.
Through conversations with team evaluators, general managers and our own statistical analysts, we probably considered four or five different guys in the No. 1 spot at one time or another.
We settled on this ranking of MLB shortstops:
1. Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves
Simmons is not the perfect player, by any means; picking the No. 1 shortstop is not the same now as it was in 2001, when you had your choice of Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and others. Simmons had a .286 on-base percentage last season, with seven homers among just 29 extra-base hits in 540 plate appearances. It would be very reasonable here to make a case in the No. 1 spot for a better hitter, or maybe two or three others.
But a highly ranked executive put it best when explaining why he’d have Simmons as the No. 1 shortstop. “He’s the best defensive shortstop, easily -- a great defender at a position where defense is the most important thing."
Especially in an era in which offensive numbers are down and teams are looking for an edge with their positioning, having a shortstop with both the best arm and best range is an enormous asset.
There is a lot of skepticism among evaluators about whether Simmons will be anything more than an average hitter, given the nature of his swing. But the Braves have him under contract through his age-30 season, which means they should have at least six more seasons of shutdown defense at shortstop, making him a tremendous asset.
2. Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals
Let’s get the usual qualifier about Peralta out of the way: He was suspended in 2013 because of his ties to Biogenesis. Unlike A-Rod or Bartolo Colon, however, Peralta is still in the middle of his career, and he had a tremendous season in 2014, relative to the production at the position -- 38 doubles, 21 homers and a .779 OPS batting right in the middle of his team’s lineup, which is not as common with shortstops as it was 15 years ago.
Peralta scored very highly in defensive metrics in 2014, although Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information detailed that a lot of this is probably related to the improved positioning of the St. Louis defense. John Fisher of ESPN Stats & Info kicked in these notes: Peralta is fourth among shortstops in slugging percentage (.426) the past three seasons (minimum 1,000 PAs). He’s fifth among shortstops in defensive runs saved (plus-16) the past three seasons (minimum 3,000 innings).
3. Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals
At his best, Desmond can be a dynamic player with power and speed (69 homers and 66 stolen bases from 2012-14). He’s won three consecutive NL Silver Slugger Awards. He also had a whopping 183 strikeouts last season, with an on-base percentage of .313, and scouts say he still tends to make mistakes on routine plays; his 24 errors last season were the second-most in his career, and he was in the middle of the pack in defensive runs saved.
But scouts like his energy and aggressiveness, and no position player will go into 2015 with a higher risk/reward in play than Desmond, who is set to become a free agent next fall. The Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers could be in the market at that time for long-term solutions at shortstop. A big year from Desmond would pay off in a big way.
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
He’d be No. 1 if he were healthy, of course, and could be counted on for a season’s worth of games. Tulowitzki, who turned 30 in October, was the only player among those with 375 or more plate appearances to post an OPS over 1.000. He had 21 homers among 40 extra-base hits, and oh by the way, he also was one of the highest-ranked defenders at his position. In the 91 games he played in 2014, he posted an OPS+ of 171, a number that is the equivalent of what a vintage Ken Griffey Jr. generated over a full season in 1993, and what Buster Posey generated in his MVP season of 2012.
But Tulowitzki had surgery to repair a hip labrum, which some rival executives believe is a major concern moving forward. While the sense of rival GMs is that Colorado would listen to offers for the four-time All-Star, they’re not really sure what he is right now, or what he’s going to be, this while carrying a contract that guarantees him $118 million over the next six seasons.
“There’s a lot of risk with him,” said one rival official.
Simon sent this along: The most wins above replacement (WAR) among shortstops the last two seasons: Tulowitzki (10.
, Simmons (10.3), Peralta (9.1), Hanley Ramirez (9.0), Desmond (7.3). 5. J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles smartly got him off the free-agent market by investing a three-year, $40 million deal in Hardy, who would have drawn interest from the Yankees and Mets, among others. Hardy has won the last three AL Gold Glove Awards, and he’s had five seasons of 22 or more homers. He's very quietly among the best at the position, and has been for a little while now.
6. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
Every other October, we’ve gotten a taste of why Crawford is a perfect fit for the Giants, with his consistent and occasionally spectacular defense. Here’s Crawford in the World Series making a strong throw, and here he is saving a run on a ball that skipped off the glove of Pablo Sandoval.
7. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia spoke last season about how Aybar, 30, really doesn’t get a lot of notice for what he does. He's a pretty consistent hitter with some pop and the ability to drive in runs. But Aybar also puts the ball in play, at least compared to most in an era of high-volume strikeouts. He has never had more than 81 strikeouts in any season.
8. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
He has some value in the trade market (see below). Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info sent along this note about his defense and offense: “He may be slipping defensively, at least as measured by defensive runs saved -- he’s gone from +14 to +1 to -4 since 2012. Also, through the end of May, he was hitting .329 with a .479 slugging percentage; after that, he hit .243 with a .370 slugging over a span of 423 plate appearances."
9. Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals
As he ages, Escobar is becoming somewhat like Hardy -- a good and reliable player. His mediocre ratings in defensive metrics don’t match what a lot of evaluators think about him -- that he is among the better shortstops in baseball. He certainly filled a key role for the Royals amid their postseason surge.
10. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
I have to admit that as I started this, I thought Castro would be ranked somewhere in the range of best six to eight shortstops. But rival evaluators want to see more maturation in his defense, more consistency; in 2014, he scored only slightly higher than Hanley Ramirez in defensive runs saved. Some evaluators are convinced that if the Cubs don’t trade Castro, he’ll eventually be moved to another spot as Addison Russell ascends into the shortstop role.
Castro has 846 career hits and still hasn’t reached his 25th birthday, and he had a nice rebound in 2014 offensively, with his OPS climbing from .631 to .777. And he's under control for a while in Chicago.
Honorable mentions
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: He had a .717 OPS last season, with 43 extra-base hits and 28 steals in 138 games. A lot of evaluators continue to regard him as a good defender.
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: We’ve seen what he can be at his best, but he has gone in reverse in terms of production. Andrus’ OPS declined from .727 in 2012 to .647 last year -- when he had just 38 extra-base hits in 685 plate appearance -- and he was thrown out on 15 of his 42 stolen-base attempts. He is 26 years old and should be higher than this. John Fisher notes: He’s fourth among shortstops in OBP (.331) the past three seasons (minimum 1,000 PAs); he’s seventh among shortstops in defensive runs saved (plus-6) the past three seasons (minimum 3,000 innings).
Jose Reyes, Blue Jays: The 31-year-old shortstop had a .726 OPS in 2014, with 30 steals in 32 attempts. But some evaluators are seeing holes develop in his defensive play.
Hanley Ramirez is not on this list because a lot of evaluators expect he’ll be playing a different position in his next stop. He’s still an excellent offensive player; as Havens notes, he is No. 1 in home runs and offensive WAR among current shortstops for his career. He also had the highest OPS+ among shortstops in 2014, at 132.
Of course, his defense has been below average, thus all the talk about a position switch.
Notables across free agency
• Players (and a lot of the rest of us) have a thing for round numbers, which is why hitting .400 (instead of .399 or .39
is such a big deal, why hitting a 500th homer gets a lot of attention. Pablo Sandoval is in negotiations with the Giants, Red Sox and perhaps some other teams, and it’s possible his contract offers might be in the range of $90 million. The other day, I mentioned on Twitter that you wonder if, deep down inside, it’s really important for Sandoval to get a $100 million deal. In response, a tweep sent this along ... which may or may not give some insight into Sandoval’s feeling about the $100 million figure. Molly Knight wrote this piece about Sandoval.
If, in fact, the Giants or the Red Sox have made offers approaching $100 million, it might be worth it for them to defer money and structure their deals in such a way that the headline on the deal is about a nine-figure contract. Perhaps it really does mean something to him.
Don’t rule out the possibility of Sandoval returning to the Giants, writes Scott Lauber. There has been confidence within the San Francisco organization that they'll be able to re-sign Sandoval -- but if the Giants cannot, and Sandoval signs someplace else, there won’t be remorse. The Giants believe they’ve been fair, given the history with Sandoval.
San Francisco is right in the middle of the Sandoval talks, writes Henry Schulman. Giants exec Bobby Evans believes Sandoval is close to a decision.
• There lots of rumblings in the industry that the Padres are positioning themselves for a big splash -- perhaps the signing of outfielder Yasmani Tomas, the defector from Cuba, for example, or maybe an unexpected trade. This is the first offseason since A.J. Preller was hired by president Mike Dee as the team’s general manager.
The bidding on Tomas has dragged on, perhaps because of related situations, like Pablo Sandoval’s negotiations.
• The Pirates cleared the way for Pedro Alvarez to move to first base, and have cut Ike Davis.
• Some rival evaluators believe that when the bidding in the Jon Lester negotiations is over, he will be with the Chicago Cubs, whose situation has changed substantively this week. Russell Martin was the centerpiece of the Cubs’ offseason wish list, given their own long-term strengths and needs -- and the Cubs were probably as surprised as the rest of the industry when the Blue Jays added a fifth year to their offer and separated themselves.
So now the Cubs’ front office is left to reassess the big picture. The fact that Martin didn’t sign with them might theoretically cause them to ratchet down their own expectations for 2015 improvement, and simply wait a little longer to target available veterans to build around. You could make the argument that because Martin didn’t sign, it might make less sense to pay big dollars for Jon Lester or Max Scherzer for next season, because the Cubs could be a little less likely to contend for the postseason without Martin.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
The Cubs and Red Sox are seen as favorites for Jon Lester's services.
But after losing out on the Martin bidding, the Cubs now have more cash available than they might've expected a week ago. There’s not really much upside in the Cubs working to make a splash, in the way that the Marlins are trying to do with their long-term investment in Giancarlo Stanton, because, well, they’re the Chicago Cubs. But the fan base, already stoked with excitement about the growing list of prospects and the hiring of manager Joe Maddon, probably does need something to show good faith -- like a promise ring, before an engagement ring. The signing of Lester or Scherzer could represent that, and Lester is someone that Cubs executives Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer know well from their days in Boston together.
Remember: The Cubs were a major player in the Masahiro Tanaka negotiations last winter, bidding $140 million. They’re not averse to pursuing the right player at the right time, and with the Cubs having missed in their effort to sign Martin, maybe Lester will move into the crosshairs as the right guy at the right time. Ultimately, they’ll make the baseball decision that seems right to them, as they did with Martin, when they decided to offer four years instead of five years.
But some rival evaluators think Lester will look even more attractive to them now.
Lester met with the Braves on Thursday, and Lester and Sandoval are awaiting offers from the Red Sox. Bernie Miklasz wonders if the Cardinals are plotting a big move for Lester. It wasn’t clear whether there was progress in the negotiations with the Braves, writes David O’Brien.
• Jerry Crasnick details the efforts to pick up pace of play in the Arizona Fall League.
• The offseason waters continue to be muddied by the incredible number of veterans eligible for free agency next fall who are currently dangling in the market: Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Ian Kennedy, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins and others. Yoenis Cespedes may also be had, rival evaluators believe, in the same vein as the others: The Red Sox would be willing to take something really good for him in return.
The Reds have three players eligible for free agency next fall currently available in the market -- Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon -- but are not close to doing anything, writes John Fay.
• The White Sox's asking price for Alexei Ramirez is said by rival teams to be steep, so much so that any interested team would have to look at him -- in light of the cost -- as a player who could be a pivotal piece in the team’s effort to win a championship in the next couple of seasons.
• Russell Martin met with reporters in Toronto on Thursday and talked about how the Jays went all-in. He is going to be a leader, as John Lott writes.
• The Rays took Jose Molina off their roster and traded reliever Joel Peralta to the Dodgers. L.A. added to its thin bullpen. The trade talks between Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman were smoothly awkward, as Marc Topkin writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The manager challenges will remain in the replay system, which will have a lot of managers and club officials scratching their heads.
2. The Orioles claimed Alex Hassan on waivers.
3. The Red Sox added another talented catcher to their 40-man roster.
4. The Tigers added a reliever.
5. The Indians added some guys to their 40-man roster.
6. The Brewers rounded out their 40-man roster.
7. The White Sox designated a veteran pitcher for assignment.
8. The Cubs added a talented pitcher to their 40-man roster, as Jesse Rogers writes.
9. The Rangers brought back a catcher.
10. Juan Nicasio is on the way out.
11. The Angels picked up an outfielder.
12. The Mariners added some players to their 40-man roster.
Dings and dents
1. Jesse Biddle has mild tendinitis.
2. Tyson Ross says his forearm is healthy.
AL West
• The Astros played the odds on their 40-man roster decisions.
• Jeff Luhnow is not averse to contract extensions, writes Evan Drellich. A lot of rival evaluators are wondering: When are the Astros going to use their financial flexibility this winter?
• Yu Darvish decided to date openly with a wrestling champ.
AL Central
• Torii Hunter is thinking about a return to the Twins.
• The Royals’ partial season-ticket holders will choose Opening Day seats soon.
AL East
• Chris Davis discussed a moment of weakness in a radio interview. From his conversation with SHINE-FM:
“I was really down,” Davis said. “I was really depressed because I felt like I had let so many people down and had really just scarred my reputation to the point of where everything that I had done wasn’t really going to count for anything. God just reached down and put his arm around me at that time and let me know that it’s OK to stumble as long as you get up and move forward and learn from your mistakes. I’m at a point right now where I don’t ever wish to go through that again, but I appreciate the process and where it’s brought me spiritually.”
NL Central
• The Cardinals chose Carlos Martinez over Shelby Miller, as Bernie Miklasz writes.
NL East
• The pressure is now on Giancarlo Stanton, writes Greg Cote.
• Bud Selig continues to support the Wilpons.
• Zack Wheeler doesn’t want to be traded by the Mets, writes Anthony McCarron.
Lastly
• Rob Manfred got a five-year contract.
• Ryan Howard has been involved in a really difficult situation. This story certainly provides a different context for his struggles last season. It’s worth repeating -- a Ubaldo Jimenez-for-Ryan Howard trade, with the Phillies eating the $10 million buyout of his contract in 2017, could make a ton of sense for both the Orioles and Philadelphia.
• The Mariners got an award for their philanthropic work.
• Yankees general manager Brian Cashman did a nice thing to raise awareness for a charity, and talked about his team with reporters.
And today will be better than yesterday.
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,413
- 5,523
I fondly remember an article saying the Giants and Dodgers offer was identical (3 years/20 million range)
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
^Stopped reading the Top 10 Shortstops in baseball article when I saw Andrelton Simmons ranked #1.
- Dec 14, 2004
- 60,034
- 50,948
Okay, those were the few that came to me. Not that many players. I hated Youkilis coming here and I didn't like Damon coming here at first but it took some time. No problem with us taking Ellsbury. He was fun as hell to watch this past season. Just wish we would have paid him a little less.
- May 2, 2007
- 12,391
- 2,910
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
Come on bro. You know damn well if you could choose any shortstop in baseball to be the Braves shortstop, you wouldnt pick Simmons.
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- May 31, 2004
- 107,232
- 53,414
Pablo looking and sounding legit happy to be in Boston playing with Ortiz and Hanley. dude's smile is ear to ear. of course, $95M will do that, too
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
Dont care what one person values higher. Andrelton Simmons is NOT the best shortstop in the Major Leagues.If I value pitching and defense, I would. (And I did)
- Apr 4, 2008
- 74,939
- 24,349
agreed. folks are putting too much emphasis on analytics these days man.Dont care what one person values higher. Andrelton Simmons is NOT the best shortstop in the Major Leagues.If I value pitching and defense, I would. (And I did)
- Oct 2, 2014
- 10,152
- 2,329
Simmons might be the best defensive SS in baseball, but there's no chance he's the best overall SS.
- Oct 20, 2012
- 1,227
- 92
If Simmons isn't the best SS who is? Tulo?
- Feb 19, 2006
- 13,656
- 1,083
Tulo would be my choice despite all his injuries.
- Dec 14, 2004
- 60,034
- 50,948
I think Simmons is top 3. I don't have a problem with him at #1. Tulo is great but can't say he's #1 with all his random injuries. I don't think there is a clear #1
- Oct 2, 2014
- 10,152
- 2,329
Simmons slashed .244/.286/.331
Peralta had the best season out of any SS imo.
Peralta had the best season out of any SS imo.
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