Winner of the MVP race so far is ...
It's LeBron vs. Durant for the MVP award! Live on ESPN2!
OK, not quite. But with Durant bringing at least a bit of mystery to what had seemed an open-and-shut MVP case for
LeBron James, tonight's Heat-Thunder matchup certainly will provide some intrigue for voters. And should Durant get the better of James for a second time in 10 days, the momentum of the LeBron Alternative may prove irreversible.
Of course, it's an interesting game on several levels that have nothing to do with the MVP award. Remember that home-court advantage in a potential Heat-Thunder Finals matchup may well be decided tonight; Miami trails Oklahoma City by a game in the loss column, and with a win the Thunder will own the tiebreaker. Also, don't look now, but the Thunder may need every win they can get just to hold off the surging Spurs for the West's top seed -- San Antonio trails by only one game in the loss column and owns the tiebreaker.
Nonetheless, it's the MVP debate that will be the most watched element of tonight's game, as everybody tries to talk themselves into reasons to avoid voting for James. And in my hopeless effort to steer everyone toward a rational discussion of what has become a hopelessly irrational award, it's time for me to issue a few reminders about the league's MVP award:
[h3]National TV games don't count for more.[/h3]
I double-checked with the league office and everything: Tonight's game against Oklahoma City counts no more and no less for Miami than last Friday's game against Toronto or this coming Sunday's game against Detroit. Similarly, regardless of the outcome of tonight's game, the Thunder will receive only one win for a victory and one loss for a defeat.
The fact that you showed up to watch is commendable, but it doesn't make the stakes higher in and of itself, and any talk of players "performing on a big stage" merely because you received the broadcast is silliness. (Cranky side note: Along a similar vein, games in New York are not magically imbued with extra importance and count no more than contests in Milwaukee.)
Everybody will be watching, and it would indeed be impressive if Durant outplays James again. It would not, however, offset the fact that LeBron has been better for the teams' other 50 games, and that those games count for 25 times as much as the two recent, high-profile meetings between their teams.
[h3]The award is for the 2011-12 regular season.[/h3]
In other words, this award is not for any event that occurred outside the 2011-12 regular season, including the 2011 Finals, for instance, or the 2012 All-Star Game, or The Decision, or any other event one wants to recount in the quest to avoid voting for James.
The other way this point is relevant, however, is the most likely out voters may give themselves for the LeBron Alternative is the "He's a choker!" angle. But again, Games 4-6 of the 2011 Finals were not part of this season, and regardless of what you think about his last-second pass in the All-Star Game, that doesn't belong in an MVP debate either.
And in the 2011-12 regular season, in the final minutes of close games, we can look at NBA.com's stats database and see there's not a heck of a lot of difference between Durant and James. Slice the data however you want; what you'll come up with is that Durant takes more shots but is far less likely to help anyone else out (he doesn't have a single assist in the final two minutes of one-possession games, for instance). When they do shoot, both convert at similar rates: Inside two minutes and three points, it's a 57.6 TS% for James and 55.8 for Durant; inside five minutes and five points it's 54.8 for Durant and 51.9 for James.
Durant supporters will desperately want to use the clutch narrative, because it's the only safe place to hang their hats right now, but there just isn't a compelling case to be made unless you start bringing up events that had nothing to do with the 2011-12 regular season.
[h3]Lack of a compelling backstory is your hang-up, not the players.[/h3]
I didn't like The Decision. Lots of people didn't like The Decision. I get that.
Also, Miami is the Goliath of basketball, and it's a lot more fun rooting for David; I get that too. Like I wrote a year ago when the
Derrick Rose MVP train careened out of control, a lot of people want to vote for the best story as much or more than they want to vote for the best player. Underdog stories (Rose,
Steve Nash,
Allen Iverson) go over well with MVP voters, even in the face of glaring logical holes in the narrative.
Durant, unquestionably, makes for a better story than James: Like Rose, he's a humble, likable, hard-working young man who deflects praise to teammates and publicly backs his point guard at every turn even when the guy is starving him of the ball. And in marked contrast to James, Durant signed a five-year extension with his small-market franchise a year ago.
All of this makes for great copy. Most of it has little or nothing to do with determining this season's most valuable player.
[h3]Defense matters.[/h3]
About 98 percent of the Durant-James debate will focus on shooting, scoring, who takes what kind of shots and whether they're going in.
Swept under the rug will be the fact that we're comparing a decent defender to an all-world defender. Somehow, everybody wants to ignore this. The Heat are fourth in Defensive Efficiency and the Thunder are 10th, even though Oklahoma City's bigs are much better defensively than Miami's.
How do you suppose that's happening? Here's a clue: Opposing small forwards have a 10.4 PER against James, according to 82games.com (against Durant it's 12.6). The Thunder give up more points per possession with Durant on the court than off it; the Heat, on the other hand, give up nearly three points per 100 possessions fewer with James. Both numbers are entirely consistent with each player's history, too; James, because of his size, strength and quickness, is simply a far more impactful defensive player.
The results speak for themselves. James' teams have been in the league's top five in Defensive Efficiency three of the past four seasons, across two franchises, and was seventh in the other. Durant's club has never finished higher than eighth.
[h3]James is still having a historic season.[/h3]
LeBron's 30.54 PER is no longer threatening
Michael Jordan's all-time mark of 31.89, and because he put up even better marks in 2008-09 and 2009-10 we're shrugging our shoulders and acting unimpressed. On the other hand, it's still the third-best PER mark
ever by any player not named LeBron James or Michael Jordan; and the two guys beating him out now (
David Robinson in 1993-94 and Shaquille O'Neal in 1999-2000) are ahead by just a whisker.
Look, I understand that James had a rough two weeks to end March, and if he continues along that path for the final 14 games we may have a more legitimate debate on our hands. I still suspect he suffered a concussion in that scary collision with
Grant Hill two weeks ago, and the Heat's less-than-glorious history in dealing with this particular injury (see:
Mike Miller, 2011; Jermaine O'Neal, 2009 playoffs) offers further support for this hypothesis.
But at the moment there isn't much of a debate. We have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate averaging 26-8-6 on 53.7 percent shooting; if we're even pretending to have a rational discussion about this, it's game over. It's no knock on Durant, who is having a great season himself, but let's call this what it is: People using a two-week slump by LeBron James to avoid giving him the MVP because they don't like him.