nba playoff predictions: hollinger (espn)

[atljunkie]

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential
range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team
to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation.
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.


I searched if it has been posted already so I should be good.
Anyone else know about this?
I know its way early in the season but it's interesting to think about.


Full Story

 

[slow motion g35]

It doesn't project phantom fouls or raja flops. Another one of his gimmicks. Even a blind man can tell you what his numbers can't

 

[y2kingsfan]

9.3% <marv albert>Yesss!<marv albert>

 

[the gr8]

These rankings are ******ed. No way this early in the season should ANYONE have a 100% chance to make the playoffs. What if all their best players break theirlegs or something or get hurt in anyhow?




Knicks 1.3% of the playoffs.

I know we have been bad and all and i know their might be a lot of doubts by some people. But i think at the very least if you want to say their chances areslim it should be 10-20% it is WAYYY too early in the season for ANY team to have a less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

EDIT: and also there isnt 0 chance that a team like the Clippers can make a big time run and slide into the playoffs. Maybe slim chances but certainly not 0.

 

[daprescription]

looks good to me

 

[22stylez]

looks good to me too

 

[fundamental21ticket]

Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Jazz, Celtics, Pistons and Magic's are all locks for the playoff's at this point. The rest of the teams can be debatable.

 

[newbs24]

I highly doubt that Chicago only has a 12.1% chance of making the playoffs. They usually start slow. John Hollinger is a calculator geek who knows very little.This dope thinks they will only win 32 games. If they don't win 40 I will be absloutely shocked.

 

[clutchshooter]

this is why hollinger and all his stats are stupid as +%!$.

the pacers are below .500, but are basically a lock for the playoffs?

forget this fool.

no, really. im sure if we all try, we can really forget him.

 

[you big dummy]

[table][tr][td]Eastern Conference[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
[/td] [td]ACTUAL[/td] [td]PROJECTED[/td] [td]ODDS (%)[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Team[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]Best[/td] [td]Worst[/td] [td]Playoffs[/td] [td]Division[/td] [td]No. 1[/td] [td]Finals[/td] [td]Champs[/td] [td]Lottery[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Boston
[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]64[/td] [td]18[/td] [td]77-5[/td] [td]51-31[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]99.9[/td] [td]78.6[/td] [td]53.6[/td] [td]42.6[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Orlando
[/td] [td]16[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]60[/td] [td]22[/td] [td]70-12[/td] [td]47-35[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]17.0[/td] [td]23.0[/td] [td]14.6[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Detroit
[/td] [td]13[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]58[/td] [td]24[/td] [td]70-12[/td] [td]44-38[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]4.4[/td] [td]20.2[/td] [td]13.2[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Toronto
[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]46[/td] [td]36[/td] [td]58-24[/td] [td]34-48[/td] [td]99.7[/td] [td]0.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]2.1[/td] [td]0.5[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Washington
[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]44[/td] [td]38[/td] [td]57-25[/td] [td]32-50[/td] [td]98.6[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.8[/td] [td]0.2[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Indiana
[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]41[/td] [td]41[/td] [td]57-25[/td] [td]28-54[/td] [td]93.4[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.2[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Cleveland
[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]37[/td] [td]45[/td] [td]50-32[/td] [td]23-59[/td] [td]63.3[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.8[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Atlanta
[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]37[/td] [td]45[/td] [td]50-32[/td] [td]24-58[/td] [td]59.9[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]

[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee
[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]33[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]46-36[/td] [td]20-62[/td] [td]21.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]3.1[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Philadelphia
[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]13[/td] [td]33[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]47-35[/td] [td]20-62[/td] [td]21.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]3.1[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Miami
[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]13[/td] [td]32[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]47-35[/td] [td]18-64[/td] [td]14.8[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]4.2[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
New Jersey
[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]33[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]48-34[/td] [td]21-61[/td] [td]14.2[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]3.1[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Chicago
[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]32[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]43-39[/td] [td]19-63[/td] [td]12.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]4.6[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
New York
[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]28[/td] [td]54[/td] [td]41-41[/td] [td]15-67[/td] [td]1.7[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]8.9[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Charlotte
[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]26[/td] [td]56[/td] [td]39-43[/td] [td]15-67[/td] [td]0.3[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]12.5[/td] [/tr][/table]http://[table][tr][td]Western Conference[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
[/td] [td]ACTUAL[/td] [td]PROJECTED[/td] [td]ODDS (%)[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Team[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]Best[/td] [td]Worst[/td] [td]Playoffs[/td] [td]Division[/td] [td]No. 1[/td] [td]Finals[/td] [td]Champs[/td] [td]Lottery[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
San Antonio
[/td] [td]16[/td] [td]3[/td] [td]58[/td] [td]24[/td] [td]70-12[/td] [td]44-38[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]96.8[/td] [td]55.0[/td] [td]27.8[/td] [td]9.8[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Phoenix
[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]56[/td] [td]26[/td] [td]71-11[/td] [td]43-39[/td] [td]100.0[/td] [td]77.3[/td] [td]23.5[/td] [td]16.9[/td] [td]4.7[/td] [td]0.7*[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Utah
[/td] [td]13[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]55[/td] [td]27[/td] [td]67-15[/td] [td]39-43[/td] [td]99.9[/td] [td]99.2[/td] [td]17.2[/td] [td]21.6[/td] [td]6.5[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Golden State
[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]51[/td] [td]31[/td] [td]63-19[/td] [td]38-44[/td] [td]99.0[/td] [td]12.7[/td] [td]2.4[/td] [td]13.4[/td] [td]3.3[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
LA Lakers
[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]51[/td] [td]31[/td] [td]62-20[/td] [td]38-44[/td] [td]98.9[/td] [td]10.0[/td] [td]1.6[/td] [td]11.4[/td] [td]2.9[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Dallas
[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]48[/td] [td]34[/td] [td]59-23[/td] [td]34-48[/td] [td]92.4[/td] [td]1.7[/td] [td]0.2[/td] [td]3.8[/td] [td]0.7[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Houston
[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]9[/td] [td]47[/td] [td]35[/td] [td]59-23[/td] [td]34-48[/td] [td]92.2[/td] [td]1.3[/td] [td]0.1[/td] [td]3.8[/td] [td]0.8[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
New Orleans
[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]44[/td] [td]38[/td] [td]58-24[/td] [td]31-51[/td] [td]59.7[/td] [td]0.2[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.7[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.3[/td] [/tr][tr][td]

[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Denver
[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]42[/td] [td]40[/td] [td]54-28[/td] [td]30-52[/td] [td]45.2[/td] [td]0.8[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.5[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.2[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Sacramento
[/td] [td]7[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]38[/td] [td]44[/td] [td]50-32[/td] [td]25-57[/td] [td]9.3[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.8[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Memphis
[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]36[/td] [td]46[/td] [td]47-35[/td] [td]24-58[/td] [td]3.3[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]1.3[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Portland
[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]32[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]45-37[/td] [td]20-62[/td] [td]0.1[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]5.3[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
LA Clippers
[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]57[/td] [td]37-45[/td] [td]14-68[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]13.5[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Seattle
[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]15[/td] [td]24[/td] [td]58[/td] [td]38-44[/td] [td]12-70[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]14.7[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
Minnesota
[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]14[/td] [td]19[/td] [td]63[/td] [td]35-47[/td] [td]8-74[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]0.0[/td] [td]22.7[/td] [/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Hollinger Playoff Odds Glossary[/td] [/tr][tr][td]W = Average number of wins from 5,000 computer-simulated seasons, based on the Hollinger Power Rankings[/td] [/tr][tr][td]
[/td] [/tr][tr][td]L = Average number of losses[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Best = Best record from simulated seasons[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Worst = Worst record from simulated seasons[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Playoffs = Likelihood of making the playoffs[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Division = Likelihood of winning the division[/td] [/tr][tr][td]No. 1 = Likelihood of holding the top seed for the conference[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Finals = Likelihood of making the NBA Finals[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Champs = Likelihood of winning the NBA title[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Lottery = Likelihood of winning the lottery[/td] [/tr][/table]

 

[daprescription]

^
actually its 64-18

 

[superofficial]

He runs it 5000 times... 77-5 probably happened 1 time... But like they said up there, I guarantee the C's, Pistons, Jazz, and Spurs make the playoffs. Heexplains it in the other article, read that for some background info before you go bashing it.

 

[th0mas cr0wn]

looks good to me too

 

[beats05]

yea people need to read or learn some basic statistics. he used a sort of boot-strap method. nothing there is 0%. the decimal places are just far enough outthat he rounded to 0. "best" shouldn't really be reported in my opinion, because like the info says, he runs it 5000 times, and if you knowanything about chance processes, very extreme results will probably occur at least once. if anything, its just there to show off how legit his statistics arethat they don't say some team is going to go undefeated for the rest of the year, or lose the rest of the games, or something crazy like that, even once in5,000 simulations.

 

[atljunkie]

Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Jazz, Celtics, Pistons and Magic's are all locks for the playoff's at this point. The rest of the teams can be debatable.



i like what i see so far being an atlanta fan, but it's still too early.

 

[darth dnzy]

--It's way too early to be predicting this stuff...
--But those Western Conference matchups look on point. Good stuff.

 

[jakecuevas]

lakers will be in ....this is there year..........maybe

 

[dunknforce]

Originally Posted by K8be wan Kenobi

No way this early in the season should ANYONE have a 100% chance to make the playoffs.

I'll bet you everything the Celtics, Spurs, and Suns will make the playoffs.

I double that

insert Pistons

 

[enlightened thought]

lakers will be in ....this is there year..........maybe
this is their year for what?

 

[atljunkie]

^^^ lol

 

[ballinboykz]

those stats are flawed and too early to tell.

but Dallas at #7 in the conference behind the Lakers?

!

 

[paul is 0n nt]

Originally Posted by daprescription

looks good to me

Me too

.